Search results for: Zero one inflated models

Authors: G. Parmar, S. Mukherjee, R. Prasad

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The authors present an algorithm for order reduction of linear time invariant dynamic systems using the combined advantages of the eigen spectrum analysis and the error minimization by particle swarm optimization technique. Pole centroid and system stiffness of both original and reduced order systems remain same in this method to determine the poles, whereas zeros are synthesized by minimizing the integral square error in between the transient responses of original and reduced order models using particle swarm optimization technique, pertaining to a unit step input. It is shown that the algorithm has several advantages, e.g. the reduced order models retain the steady-state value and stability of the original system. The algorithm is illustrated with the help of two numerical examples and the results are compared with the other existing techniques.

Keywords: Eigen spectrum, Integral square error, Orderreduction, Particle swarm optimization, Stability.

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Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

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Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: Customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, retailer.

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Authors: M. Aruna, V. Dhanalaksmi

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Inconel 718, a nickel based super-alloy is an extensively used alloy, accounting for about 50% by weight of materials used in an aerospace engine, mainly in the gas turbine compartment. This is owing to their outstanding strength and oxidation resistance at elevated temperatures in excess of 5500 C. Machining is a requisite operation in the aircraft industries for the manufacture of the components especially for gas turbines. This paper is concerned with optimization of the surface roughness when turning Inconel 718 with cermet inserts. Optimization of turning operation is very useful to reduce cost and time for machining. The approach is based on Response Surface Method (RSM). In this work, second-order quadratic models are developed for surface roughness, considering the cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut as the cutting parameters, using central composite design. The developed models are used to determine the optimum machining parameters. These optimized machining parameters are validated experimentally, and it is observed that the response values are in reasonable agreement with the predicted values.

Keywords: Inconel 718, Optimization, Response Surface Methodology (RSM), Surface roughness

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Authors: Ali Pirdavani, Tom Brijs, Tom Bellemans, Geert Wets, Koen Vanhoof

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Signalized intersections on high-volume arterials are often congested during peak hours, causing a decrease in through movement efficiency on the arterial. Much of the vehicle delay incurred at conventional intersections is caused by high left-turn demand. Unconventional intersection designs attempt to reduce intersection delay and travel time by rerouting left-turns away from the main intersection and replacing it with right-turn followed by Uturn. The proposed new type of U-turn intersection is geometrically designed with a raised island which provides a protected U-turn movement. In this study several scenarios based on different distances between U-turn and main intersection, traffic volume of major/minor approaches and percentage of left-turn volumes were simulated by use of AIMSUN, a type of traffic microsimulation software. Subsequently some models are proposed in order to compute travel time of each movement. Eventually by correlating these equations to some in-field collected data of some implemented U-turn facilities, the reliability of the proposed models are approved. With these models it would be possible to calculate travel time of each movement under any kind of geometric and traffic condition. By comparing travel time of a conventional signalized intersection with U-turn intersection travel time, it would be possible to decide on converting signalized intersections into this new kind of U-turn facility or not. However comparison of travel time is not part of the scope of this research. In this paper only travel time of this innovative U-turn facility would be predicted. According to some before and after study about the traffic performance of some executed U-turn facilities, it is found that commonly, this new type of U-turn facility produces lower travel time. Thus, evaluation of using this type of unconventional intersection should be seriously considered.

Keywords: Innovative U-turn facility, Microsimulation, Traveltime, Unconventional intersection design.

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Zaidi Mohd Ripin

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In a metal forming process, the friction between the material and the tools influences the process by modifying the stress distribution of the workpiece. This frictional behaviour is often taken into account by using a constant coefficient of friction in the finite element simulations of sheet metal forming processes. However, friction coefficient varies in time and space with many parameters. The Stribeck friction model is investigated in this study to predict springback behaviour of AA6061-T4 sheets during V-bending process. The coefficient of friction in Stribeck curve depends on sliding velocity and contact pressure. The plane-strain bending process is simulated in ABAQUS/Standard. We compared the computed punch load-stroke curves and springback related to the constant coefficient of friction with the defined friction model. The results clearly showed that the new friction model provides better agreement between experiments and results of numerical simulations. The influence of friction models on stress distribution in the workpiece is also studied numerically

Keywords: Friction model, Stress distribution, V-bending.

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Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

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The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: Drought index, climatic projections, precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin, Standardized Precipitation Index.

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Authors: Lihui Ma, Kunlun Xin, Suiqing Liu

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Modern managements of water distribution system (WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and deserve to generalize in the future.

Keywords: Metamodeling, model calibration, radial basisfunction, water distribution system, water quality model.

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Authors: Chad Goldsworthy, B. Rajeswari Matam

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The use of deep learning for species identification in camera trap images has revolutionised our ability to study, conserve and monitor species in a highly efficient and unobtrusive manner, with state-of-the-art models achieving accuracies surpassing the accuracy of manual human classification. The high imbalance of camera trap datasets, however, results in poor accuracies for minority (rare or endangered) species due to their relative insignificance to the overall model accuracy. This paper investigates the use of Focal Loss, in comparison to the traditional Cross Entropy Loss function, to improve the identification of minority species in the “255 Bird Species” dataset from Kaggle. The results show that, although Focal Loss slightly decreased the accuracy of the majority species, it was able to increase the F1-score by 0.06 and improve the identification of the bottom two, five and ten (minority) species by 37.5%, 15.7% and 10.8%, respectively, as well as resulting in an improved overall accuracy of 2.96%.

Keywords: Convolutional neural networks, data imbalance, deep learning, focal loss, species classification, wildlife conservation.

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Authors: H. Sayyaadi, N. Shokouhi

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In rail vehicles, air springs are very important isolating component, which guarantee good ride comfort for passengers during their trip. In the most new rail–vehicle models, developed by researchers, the thermo–dynamical effects of air springs are ignored and secondary suspension is modeled by simple springs and dampers. As the performance of suspension components have significant effects on rail–vehicle dynamics and ride comfort of passengers, a complete nonlinear thermo–dynamical air spring model, which is a combination of two different models, is introduced. Result from field test shows remarkable agreement between proposed model and experimental data. Effects of air suspension parameters on the system performances are investigated here and then these parameters are tuned to minimize Sperling ride comfort index during the trip. Results showed that by modification of air suspension parameters, passengers comfort is improved and ride comfort index is reduced about 10%.

Keywords: Air spring, Ride comfort improvement, Thermo– dynamical effects.

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Juraj Camaj, Jaroslav Masek

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This contribution is focused on the methodology for identifying levels of quality and improving quality through new logistics model in railway transport. It is oriented on the application of dynamic quality models, which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected, and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process within logistics chain can be taken into account. Various models describe the improvement of the quality which emphases the time factor throughout the whole transportation logistics chain. Quality of services in railway transport can be determined by the existing level of service quality, by detecting the causes of dissatisfaction employees but also customers, to uncover strengths and weaknesses. This new logistics model is able to recognize critical processes in logistic chain. It includes service quality rating that must respect its specific properties, which are unrepeatability, impalpability, their use right at the time they are provided and particularly changeability, which is significant factor in the conditions of rail transport as well. These peculiarities influence the quality of service regarding the constantly increasing requirements and that result in new ways of finding progressive attitudes towards the service quality rating.

Keywords: Logistics model, quality, railway transport.

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Authors: M. Ezzat, Y. Zaghloul, T. Sorour, A. Hefny, M. Eid

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Ultimate capacity of large diameter bored piles is usually determined from pile loading tests as recommended by several international codes and foundation design standards. However, loading of this type of piles till achieving apparent failure is practically seldom. In this paper, numerical analyses are carried out to simulate load test of a large diameter bored pile performed at the location of Alzey highway bridge project (Germany). Test results of pile load settlement relationship till failure as well as results of the base and shaft resistances are available. Apparent failure was indicated in this test by the significant increase of the induced settlement during the last load increment applied on the pile head. Measurements of this pile load test are used to assess the quality of the numerical models investigated. Three different material soil models are implemented in the analyses: Mohr coulomb (MC), Soft soil (SS), and Modified Mohr coulomb (MMC). Very good agreement is obtained between the field measured settlement and the calculated settlement using the MMC model. Results of analysis showed also that the MMC constitutive model is superior to MC, and SS models in predicting the ultimate base and shaft resistances of the large diameter bored pile. After calibrating the numerical model, behavior of large diameter bored piles under axial loads is discussed and the formation of the plastic zone around the pile is explored. Results obtained showed that the plastic zone below the base of the pile at failure extended laterally to about four times the pile diameter and vertically to about three times the pile diameter.

Keywords: Ultimate capacity, large diameter bored piles, plastic zone, failure, pile load test.

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Authors: Michael Lissack

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We depend upon explanation in order to “make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as “representations." More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as “compressions." Both compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager-s peril..

Keywords: Coherence, Emergence, Reduction, Model

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Authors: D. Karthikeyan, G. Balakrishnan

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Human faces, as important visual signals, express a significant amount of nonverbal info for usage in human-to-human communication. Age, specifically, is more significant among these properties. Human age estimation using facial image analysis as an automated method which has numerous potential real‐world applications. In this paper, an automated age estimation framework is presented. Support Vector Regression (SVR) strategy is utilized to investigate age prediction. This paper depicts a feature extraction taking into account Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), which can be utilized for robust face recognition framework. It applies GLCM operation to remove the face's features images and Active Appearance Models (AAMs) to assess the human age based on image. A fused feature technique and SVR with GA optimization are proposed to lessen the error in age estimation.

Keywords: Support vector regression, feature extraction, gray level co-occurrence matrix, active appearance models.

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Authors: Hao-Hsiang Ku, Ching-Ho Chi

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Big data applications have become an imperative for many fields. Many researchers have been devoted into increasing correct rates and reducing time complexities. Hence, the study designs and proposes an Ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy for NoSQL big data applications, which is called ON4NoSQL. ON4NoSQL is responsible for enhancing the performances of classifications in NoSQL and SQL databases to build up mass behavior models. Mass behavior models are made by MapReduce techniques and Hadoop distributed file system based on Hadoop service platform. The reference engine of ON4NoSQL is the ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy. Simulation results indicate that ON4NoSQL can efficiently achieve to construct a high performance environment for data storing, searching, and retrieving.

Keywords: Hadoop, NoSQL, ontology, backpropagation neural network, and high distributed file system.

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Authors: Vijay Pal Singh, Yogesh Chandra Kotiyal

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Structures are a combination of various load carrying members which transfer the loads to the foundation from the superstructure safely. At the design stage, the loading of the structure is defined and appropriate material choices are made based upon their properties, mainly related to strength. The strength of materials kept on reducing with time because of many factors like environmental exposure and deformation caused by unpredictable external loads. Hence, to predict the strength of materials used in structures, various techniques are used. Among these techniques, Non-destructive techniques (NDT) are the one that can be used to predict the strength without damaging the structure. In the present study, the compressive strength of concrete has been predicted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The predicted strength was compared with the experimentally obtained actual compressive strength of concrete and equations were developed for different models. A good co-relation has been obtained between the predicted strength by these models and experimental values. Further, the co-relation has been developed using two NDT techniques for prediction of strength by regression analysis. It was found that the percentage error has been reduced between the predicted strength by using combined techniques in place of single techniques.

Keywords: Rebound, ultra-sonic pulse, penetration, ANN, NDT, regression.

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Authors: Omer Ishag Eldai, Ahmed Hassan M. H. Ali, S. Raviraja

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Web-based systems have become increasingly important due to the fact that the Internet and the World Wide Web have become ubiquitous, surpassing all other technological developments in our history. The Internet and especially companies websites has rapidly evolved in their scope and extent of use, from being a little more than fixed advertising material, i.e. a "web presences", which had no particular influence for the company's business, to being one of the most essential parts of the company's core business. Traditional software engineering approaches with process models such as, for example, CMM and Waterfall models, do not work very well since web system development differs from traditional development. The development differs in several ways, for example, there is a large gap between traditional software engineering designs and concepts and the low-level implementation model, many of the web based system development activities are business oriented (for example web application are sales-oriented, web application and intranets are content-oriented) and not engineering-oriented. This paper aims to introduce Increment Iterative extreme Programming (IIXP) methodology for developing web based systems. In difference to the other existence methodologies, this methodology is combination of different traditional and modern software engineering and web engineering principles.

Keywords: Web based systems, Web engineering.

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Authors: Gururaj S Punekar, N K Kishore Senior, H S Y Shastry

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Charge Simulation Method (CSM) is one of the very widely used numerical field computation technique in High Voltage (HV) engineering. The high voltage fields of varying non uniformities are encountered in practice. CSM programs being case specific, the simulation accuracies heavily depend on the user (programmers) experience. Here is an effort to understand CSM errors and evolve some guidelines to setup accurate CSM models, relating non uniformities with assignment factors. The results are for the six-point-charge model of sphere-plane gap geometry. Using genetic algorithm (GA) as tool, optimum assignment factors at different non uniformity factors for this model have been evaluated and analyzed. It is shown that the symmetrically placed six-point-charge models can be good enough to set up CSM programs with potential errors less than 0.1% when the field non uniformity factor is greater than 2.64 (field utilization factor less than 52.76%).

Keywords: Assignment factor, Charge Simulation Method, High Voltage, Numerical field computation, Non uniformity factor, Simulation errors.

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Authors: Ahmed S. Al-Abdulwahab

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Generation system reliability assessment is an important task which can be performed using deterministic or probabilistic techniques. The probabilistic approaches have significant advantages over the deterministic methods. However, more complicated modeling is required by the probabilistic approaches. Power generation model is a basic requirement for this assessment. One form of the generation models is the well known capacity outage probability table (COPT). Different analytical techniques have been used to construct the COPT. These approaches require considerable mathematical modeling of the generating units. The unit-s models are combined to build the COPT which will add more burdens on the process of creating the COPT. Decimal to Binary Conversion (DBC) technique is widely and commonly applied in electronic systems and computing This paper proposes a novel utilization of the DBC to create the COPT without engaging in analytical modeling or time consuming simulations. The simple binary representation , “0 " and “1 " is used to model the states o f generating units. The proposed technique is proven to be an effective approach to build the generation model.

Keywords: Decimal to Binary, generation, reliability.

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Authors: Lari Kela

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An adaptive Helmholtz resonator was designed and adapted to hydraulics. The resonator was controlled by open- and closed-loop controls so that 20 dB attenuation of the peak-to-peak value of the pulsating pressure was maintained. The closed-loop control was noted to be better, albeit it was slower because of its low pressure and temperature variation, which caused variation in the effective bulk modulus of the hydraulic system. Low-pressure hydraulics contains air, which affects the stiffness of the hydraulics, and temperature variation changes the viscosity of the oil. Thus, an open-loop control loses its efficiency if a condition such as temperature or the amount of air changes after calibration. The instability of the low-pressure hydraulic system reduced the operational frequency range of the Helmholtz resonator when compared with the results of an analytical model. Different dampers for hydraulics are presented. Then analytical models of a hydraulic pipe and a hydraulic pipe with a Helmholtz resonator are presented. The analytical models are based on the wave equation of sound pressure. Finally, control methods and the results of experiments are presented.

Keywords: adaptive, damper, hydraulics, pressure, pulsating

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Authors: Asaiel Alohaly

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A theoretical framework for corporate governance is needed to bridge the gap between the corporate governance of private companies and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The two dominant models, being shareholder and stakeholder, do not always address the specific requirements and challenges posed by ‘hybrid’ companies; namely, previously national bodies that have been privatised while the government retains significant control or holds a majority of shares. Thus, an exploratory theoretical study is needed to identify how ‘hybrid’ companies should be defined and why the state model should be acknowledged since it is the less conspicuous model in comparison with the shareholder and stakeholder models. This research focuses on the state model of corporate governance to understand the complex ownership, control pattern, goals, and corporate governance of these hybrid companies. The significance of this research lies in the fact that there is a limited available publication on the state model. This research argues for the state model, which proceeds from an understanding of the institutionally embedded characteristics of hybrid companies, where the government as a shareholder, is either a majority of the total shares, or has been granted power based on the rule of law; the company bylaws.

Keywords: Corporate governance, control, shareholders, state model.

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Authors: Rim Bouhaouel, Naoufel Kraïem, Zuhoor Al Khanjari

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Unified Modeling Language (UML) is considered as one of the widespread modeling language standardized by the Object Management Group (OMG). Therefore, the model driving engineering (MDE) community attempts to provide reuse of UML diagrams, and do not construct it from scratch. The UML model appears according to a specific software development process. The existing method generation models focused on the different techniques of transformation without considering the development process. Our work aims to construct an UML component from fragments of UML diagram basing on an agile method. We define UML fragment as a portion of a UML diagram, which express a business target. To guide the generation of fragments of UML models using an agile process, we need a flexible approach, which adapts to the agile changes and covers all its activities. We use the software product line (SPL) to derive a fragment of process agile method. This paper explains our approach, named RECUP, to generate UML fragments following an agile process, and overviews the different aspects. In this paper, we present the approach and we define the different phases and artifacts.

Keywords: UML, component, fragment, agile, SPL.

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Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal, Paratibha Aggarwal

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The paper presents a comparative performance of the models developed to predict 28 days compressive strengths using neural network techniques for data taken from literature (ANN-I) and data developed experimentally for SCC containing bottom ash as partial replacement of fine aggregates (ANN-II). The data used in the models are arranged in the format of six and eight input parameters that cover the contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash as partial replacement of cement, bottom ash as partial replacement of sand, water and water/powder ratio, superplasticizer dosage and an output parameter that is 28-days compressive strength and compressive strengths at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days and 365 days, respectively for ANN-I and ANN-II. The importance of different input parameters is also given for predicting the strengths at various ages using neural network. The model developed from literature data could be easily extended to the experimental data, with bottom ash as partial replacement of sand with some modifications.

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, bottom ash, strength, prediction, neural network, importance factor.

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Authors: Radim Farana, Bogdan Walek, Michal Janosek, Jaroslav Zacek

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This paper presents the advantages of fuzzy control use in technological processes control. The paper presents a real application of the Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Control, developed at the University of Ostrava for the control of physical models in the Intelligent Systems Laboratory. The paper presents an example of a sensitive non-linear model, such as a magnetic levitation model and obtained results which show how modern information technologies can help to solve actual technical problems. A special method based on the LFLC controller with partial components is presented in this paper followed by the method of automatic context change, which is very helpful to achieve more accurate control results. The main advantage of the used system is its robustness in changing conditions demonstrated by comparing with conventional PID controller. This technology and real models are also used as a background for problem-oriented teaching, realized at the department for master students and their collaborative as well as individual final projects.

Keywords: Control, fuzzy logic, sensitive system, technological proves.

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Authors: Rafayel A. Azizyan, Aram E. Gevogyan, Valeri B. Arakelyan, Emil S. Gevorgyan

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The mathematical modeling of different biological processes is usually used to predict or assess behavior of systems in which these processes take place. This study deals with mathematical and computer modeling of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ping-pong mechanism, which play an important role in different biochemical pathways. Besides that, three models of competitive inhibition were designed using different software packages. The main objective of this study is to represent the results from in silico investigation of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ordered pingpong mechanism in the presence of competitive inhibitors, as well as to describe in details the inhibition effects. The simulation of the models with certain kinetic parameters allowed investigating the behavior of reactions as well as determined some interesting aspects concerning influence of different cases of competitive inhibition. Simultaneous presence of two inhibitors, competitive to the S1 and S2 substrates have been studied. Moreover, we have found the pattern of simultaneous influence of both inhibitors.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, ping-pong mechanism, competitive inhibition.

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Authors: Delfim Soares Jr., Webe J. Mansur

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The Time-Domain Boundary Element Method (TDBEM) is a well known numerical technique that handles quite properly dynamic analyses considering infinite dimension media. However, when these analyses are also related to nonlinear behavior, very complex numerical procedures arise considering the TD-BEM, which may turn its application prohibitive. In order to avoid this drawback and model nonlinear infinite media, the present work couples two BEM formulations, aiming to achieve the best of two worlds. In this context, the regions expected to behave nonlinearly are discretized by the Domain Boundary Element Method (D-BEM), which has a simpler mathematical formulation but is unable to deal with infinite domain analyses; the TD-BEM is employed as in the sense of an effective non-reflexive boundary. An iterative procedure is considered for the coupling of the TD-BEM and D-BEM, which is based on a relaxed renew of the variables at the common interfaces. Elastoplastic models are focused and different time-steps are allowed to be considered by each BEM formulation in the coupled analysis.

Keywords: Boundary Element Method, Dynamic Elastoplastic Analysis, Iterative Coupling, Multiple Time-Steps.

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Authors: Elena Carcano, Mirzi Betasolo

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This study aims to provide sub-hourly streamflow predictions and associated rating curves for small catchments of intermittent and torrential flow regime characterized by flash floods occurring especially during April and November. The methodology entails two lumped conceptual hydrological models which work in series. The total model is based upon eleven parameters and shows good flexibility in handling different input sets. Runoff Coefficient has contributed to improving the model’s performances and has been treated as an additional parameter; while Sensitivity Analysis has highlighted how slight changes in the model’s input can lead to changes in model’s output. The adopted procedure is steady and useful to give very practical engineering information at the expense of a parsimonious request both in input data and in the number of adopted parameters. According to the obtained results, the authors encourage the test of this combined procedure on different hydrological scenarios in order to provide information for poorly monitored catchments and not updated sites.

Keywords: Streamflow rating curve, chronological data, streamflow sequences, conceptual models.

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

Abstract:

The geological environment where the groundwater is collected represents the most important element that affects the behaviour of groundwater aquifer. As groundwater is a worldwide vital resource, it requires knowing the parameters that affect this source accurately so that the conceptualized mathematical models would be acceptable to the broadest ranges. Therefore, groundwater models have recently become an effective and efficient tool to investigate groundwater aquifer behaviours. Groundwater aquifer may contain aquitards, aquicludes, or interfaces within its geological formations. Aquitards and aquicludes have geological formations that forced the modellers to include those formations within the conceptualized groundwater models, while interfaces are commonly neglected from the conceptualization process because the modellers believe that the interface has no effect on aquifer behaviour. The current research highlights the impact of an interface existing in a real unconfined groundwater aquifer called Dibdibba, located in Al-Najaf City, Iraq where it has a river called the Euphrates River that passes through the eastern part of this city. Dibdibba groundwater aquifer consists of two types of soil layers separated by an interface soil layer. A groundwater model is built for Al-Najaf City to explore the impact of this interface. Calibration process is done using PEST 'Parameter ESTimation' approach and the best Dibdibba groundwater model is obtained. When the soil interface is conceptualized, results show that the groundwater tables are significantly affected by that interface through appearing dry areas of 56.24 km² and 6.16 km² in the upper and lower layers of the aquifer, respectively. The Euphrates River will also leak water into the groundwater aquifer of 7359 m³/day. While these results are changed when the soil interface is neglected where the dry area became 0.16 km², the Euphrates River leakage became 6334 m³/day. In addition, the conceptualized models (with and without interface) reveal different responses for the change in the recharge rates applied on the aquifer through the uncertainty analysis test. The aquifer of Dibdibba in Al-Najaf City shows a slight deficit in the amount of water supplied by the current pumping scheme and also notices that the Euphrates River suffers from stresses applied to the aquifer. Ultimately, this study shows a crucial need to represent the interface soil layer in model conceptualization to be the intended and future predicted behaviours more reliable for consideration purposes.

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater aquifer behaviour, groundwater modelling, interface soil layer, Visual MODFLOW.

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Authors: J. Geiser, R. Röhle

Abstract:

In this paper we present discretization and decomposition methods for a multi-component transport model of a chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process. CVD processes are used to manufacture deposition layers or bulk materials. In our transport model we simulate the deposition of thin layers. The microscopic model is based on the heavy particles, which are derived by approximately solving a linearized multicomponent Boltzmann equation. For the drift-process of the particles we propose diffusionreaction equations as well as for the effects of heat conduction. We concentrate on solving the diffusion-reaction equation with analytical and numerical methods. For the chemical processes, modelled with reaction equations, we propose decomposition methods and decouple the multi-component models to simpler systems of differential equations. In the numerical experiments we present the computational results of our proposed models.

Keywords: Chemical reactions, chemical vapor deposition, convection-diffusion-reaction equations, decomposition methods, multi-component transport.

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