Search results for: Novelty Index.

Authors: Muhammed A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh

Abstract:

Global Solar Radiation (H) for Dubai and Sharjah, Latitude 25.25oN, Longitude 55oE and 25.29oN, Longitude 55oE respectively have been studied using sunshine hour data (n) of the areas using various methods. These calculated global solar radiation values are then compared to the measured values presented by NASA. Furthermore, the extraterrestrial (H0), diffuse (Hd) and beam radiation (Hb) are also calculated. The diffuse radiation is calculated using methods proposed by Page and Liu and Jordan (L-J). Diffuse Radiation from the Page method is higher than the L-J method. Moreover, the clearness index (KT) signifies a clear sky almost all year round. Rainy days are hardly a few in a year and limited in the months December to March. The temperature remains between 25oC in winter to 44oC in summer and is desirable for thermal applications of solar energy. From the estimated results, it appears that solar radiation can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year for photovoltaic and thermal applications.

Keywords: Dubai, Sharjah, Global Solar Radiation, Diffuse Radiation

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Authors: X. Mamaqi, J.Miguel, P. Olave

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The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical evidence about the effects that the management of continuous training have on employability (or employment stability) in the Spanish labour market. With this purpose a binary logit model with interaction effect is been used. The dependent variable includes two situations of the active workers: continuous and discontinuous employability. To distinguish between them an Employability Index Stability (ESI) was calculated taking into account two factors: time worked and job security. Various aspects of the continuous training and personal workers data are used as independent variables. The data obtained from a survey of a sample of 918 employed have revealed a relationship between the likelihood of continuous employability and continuous training received. The empirical results support the positive and significant relationship between various aspects of the training provided by firms and employability likelihood of the workers, postulate alike from a theoretical point of view.

Keywords: training management, employability/employmentstability, binary logit model, interaction effect, Spanish marketlabour.

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Authors: Abhay Kumar Singh

Abstract:

Structural and UV/Visible optical properties can be useful to describe a material for the CIGS solar cell active layer, therefore, this work demonstrates the properties like surface morphology, X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) bonding energy (EB) core level spectra, UV/Visible absorption spectra, refractive index (n), optical energy band (Eg), reflection spectra for the Cu25 (In16Ga9) Se40Te10 (CIGST-1) and Cu20 (In14Ga9) Se45Te12 (CIGST-2) chalcogenide compositions. Materials have been exhibited homogenous surface morphologies, broading /-or diffusion of bonding energy peaks relative elemental values and a high UV/Visible absorption tendency in the wave length range 400 nm- 850 nm range with the optical energy band gaps 1.37 and 1.42 respectively. Subsequently, UV/Visible reflectivity property in the wave length range 250 nm to 320 nm for these materials has also been discussed.

Keywords: Chalcogen, Optical energy band gap, UV/Visible spectra, XPS spectra.

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Authors: Elena Lyakso, Olga Frolova, Yuri Matveev

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The aim of the study is to determine the acoustic features of voice and speech of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) as a possible additional diagnostic criterion. The participants in the study were 95 children with ASD aged 5-16 years, 150 typically development (TD) children, and 103 adults – listening to children’s speech samples. Three types of experimental methods for speech analysis were performed: spectrographic, perceptual by listeners, and automatic recognition. In the speech of children with ASD, the pitch values, pitch range, values of frequency and intensity of the third formant (emotional) leading to the “atypical” spectrogram of vowels are higher than corresponding parameters in the speech of TD children. High values of vowel articulation index (VAI) are specific for ASD children’s speech signals. These acoustic features can be considered as diagnostic marker of autism. The ability of humans and automatic recognition of the psychoneurological state of children via their speech is determined.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorders, biomarker of autism, child speech, voice features.

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Authors: Nelson J. Cossa, Narayanan S. Potty, Mohd Shahir Liew, Arazi B. Idrus

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The oil and gas industry has moved towards Load and Resistance Factor Design through API RP2A - LRFD and the recently published international standard, ISO-19902, for design of fixed steel offshore structures. The ISO 19902 is intended to provide a harmonized design practice that offers a balanced structural fitness for the purpose, economy and safety. As part of an ongoing work, the reliability analysis of tubular joints of the jacket structure has been carried out to calibrate the load and resistance factors for the design of offshore platforms in Malaysia, as proposed in the ISO. Probabilistic models have been established for the load effects (wave, wind and current) and the tubular joints strengths. In this study the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), coded in MATLAB Software has been employed to evaluate the reliability index of the typical joints, designed using API RP2A - WSD and ISO 19902.

Keywords: FORM, Reliability Analysis, Tubular Joints

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Authors: Xinjian Kou, Linlin Li, Yongju Zhou, Jimian Song

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We introduce the redundancy matrix that expresses clearly the geometrical/topological configuration of the structure. With the matrix, the redundancy of the structure is resolved into redundant components and assigned to each member or rigid joint. The values of the diagonal elements in the matrix indicates the importance of the corresponding members or rigid joints, and the geometrically correlations can be shown with the non-diagonal elements. If a member or rigid joint failures, reassignment of the redundant components can be calculated with the recursive method given in the paper. By combining the indexes of reliability and redundancy components, we define an index concerning the structural robustness. To further explain the properties of the redundancy matrix, we cited several examples of statically indeterminate structures, including two trusses and a rigid frame. With the examples, some simple results and the properties of the matrix are discussed. The examples also illustrate that the redundancy matrix and the relevant concepts are valuable in structural safety analysis.

Keywords: Structural robustness, structural reliability, redundancy component, redundancy matrix.

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: Amir Ghasemlouei, Alireza Khalaj

Abstract:

Breast cancer is in the top rate of cancer. We analyzed the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer and finally we reviewed 25 article that 320 patient and 320 control which enrolled to our study. The distribution of breast cancer patients and controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg) compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the role of estrogen in a woman which is endogenous estrogen of the tumor and regulates the activities of growth steroids, obesity has confirmed as a risk factor for breast cancer. Our study and other studies have shown that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And it can be prevented with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: Breast cancer, review study, obesity, overweight.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Inamullah Bhatti, Ahsanullah Baloch, Khadija Qureshi

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The objective of this research is to examine the shear thinning behaviour of mixing flow of non-Newtonian fluid like toothpaste in the dissolution container with rotating stirrer. The problem under investigation is related to the chemical industry. Mixing of fluid is performed in a cylindrical container with rotating stirrer, where stirrer is eccentrically placed on the lid of the container. For the simulation purpose the associated motion of the fluid is considered as revolving of the container, with stick stirrer. For numerical prediction, a time-stepping finite element algorithm in a cylindrical polar coordinate system is adopted based on semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin/pressure-correction scheme. Numerical solutions are obtained for non-Newtonian fluids employing power law model. Variations with power law index have been analysed, with respect to the flow structure and pressure drop.

Keywords: finite element simulation, mixing fluid, rheology, rotating flow, toothpaste

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Authors: Sunil Dehipawala, Todd Holden, E. Cheung, Robert Regan, P. Schneider, G. Tremberger Jr, D. Lieberman, T. Cheung

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The zinc and iron environments in different growth stages have been studied with EXAFS and XANES with Brookhaven Synchrotron Light Source. Tissue samples included meat, organ, vegetable, leaf, and yeast. The project studied the EXAFS and XANES of tissue samples using Zn and Fe K-edges. Duck embryo samples show that brain and intestine would contain shorter EXFAS determined Zn-N/O bond; as with the cases of fresh yeast versus reconstituted live yeast and green leaf versus yellow leaf. The XANES Fourier transform characteristic-length would be useful as a functionality index for selected types of tissue samples in various physical states. The extension to the development of functional synchrotron imaging for tissue engineering application based on spectroscopic technique is discussed.

Keywords: EXAFS, Fourier Transform, metalloproteins, XANES

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Authors: Yongyoon Suh, Chulhyun Kim, Moon-soo Kim

Abstract:

As increasing importance of symbiosis and cooperation among mobile communication industries, the mobile ecosystem has been especially highlighted in academia and practice. The structure of mobile ecosystem is quite complex and the ecological role of actors is important to understand that structure. In this respect, this study aims to explore structure of mobile ecosystem in the case of Korea using inter-industry network analysis. Then, the ecological roles in mobile ecosystem are identified using centrality measures as a result of network analysis: degree of centrality, closeness, and betweenness. The result shows that the manufacturing and service industries are separate. Also, the ecological roles of some actors are identified based on the characteristics of ecological terms: keystone, niche, and dominator. Based on the result of this paper, we expect that the policy makers can formulate the future of mobile industry and healthier mobile ecosystem can be constructed.

Keywords: Mobile ecosystem, structure, ecological roles, network analysis, network index.

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Authors: Kehinde K. Agbele, Kehinde Daniel Aruleba, Eniafe F. Ayetiran

Abstract:

When using Information Retrieval Systems (IRS), users often present search queries made of ad-hoc keywords. It is then up to the IRS to obtain a precise representation of the user’s information need and the context of the information. This paper investigates optimization of IRS to individual information needs in order of relevance. The study addressed development of algorithms that optimize the ranking of documents retrieved from IRS. This study discusses and describes a Document Ranking Optimization (DROPT) algorithm for information retrieval (IR) in an Internet-based or designated databases environment. Conversely, as the volume of information available online and in designated databases is growing continuously, ranking algorithms can play a major role in the context of search results. In this paper, a DROPT technique for documents retrieved from a corpus is developed with respect to document index keywords and the query vectors. This is based on calculating the weight (

Keywords: Internet ranking,

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Authors: Emanuela Paranhos Lima, Vitaly Félix Rodríguez Esquerre

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In this work, efficient directional coupler composed of dielectric waveguides and metallic film has been analyzed in details by simulations using finite element method (FEM). The structure consists of a step-index fiber with dielectric core, silica cladding, and a metal nanowire parallel to the core. The results show that an efficient conversion of optical dielectric modes to long range plasmonic is possible. Low insertion losses in conjunction with short coupling length and a broadband operation can be achieved under certain conditions. This kind of couplers has potential applications for the design of photonic integrated circuits for signal routing between dielectric/plasmonic waveguides, sensing, lithography, and optical storage systems. A high efficient focusing of light in a very small region can be obtained.

Keywords: Directional coupler, finite element method, metallic nanowire, plasmonic, surface plasmon polariton.

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Authors: A. Szabó Nagy, J. Szabó, Zs. Csanádi, J. Erdős

Abstract:

The main objective of this study was to assess the seasonal variation of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations associated with PM10 in an urban site of Győr, Hungary. A total of 112 PM10 aerosol samples were collected in the years of 2012 and 2013 and analyzed for PAHs by gas chromatography method. The total PAH concentrations (sum of the concentrations of 19 individual PAH compounds) ranged from 0.19 to 70.16 ng/m3 with the mean value of 12.29 ng/m3. Higher concentrations of both total PAHs and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) were detected in samples collected in the heating seasons. Using BaPequivalent potency index on the carcinogenic PAH concentration data, the local population appears to be exposed to significantly higher cancer risk in the heating seasons. However, the comparison of the BaP and total PAH concentrations observed for Győr with other cities it was found that the PAH levels in Győr generally corresponded to the EU average.

Keywords: Air quality, benzo[a]pyrene, PAHs, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

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Authors: Jing Zhu, Liancun Zheng, Xinxin Zhang

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This work is focused on the steady boundary layer flow near the forward stagnation point of plane and axisymmetric bodies towards a stretching sheet. The no slip condition on the solid boundary is replaced by the partial slip condition. The analytical solutions for the velocity distributions are obtained for the various values of the ratio of free stream velocity and stretching velocity, slip parameter, the suction and injection velocity parameter, magnetic parameter and dimensionality index parameter in the series forms with the help of homotopy analysis method (HAM). Convergence of the series is explicitly discussed. Results show that the flow and the skin friction coefficient depend heavily on the velocity slip factor. In addition, the effects of all the parameters mentioned above were more pronounced for plane flows than for axisymmetric flows.

Keywords: slip flow, axisymmetric flow, homotopy analysismethod, stagnation-point.

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Authors: Sitthichon Kanitthakun, Pinit Kumhom, Kosin Chamnongthai

Abstract:

In quality control of freeze-dried durian, crispiness is a key quality index of the product. Generally, crispy testing has to be done by a destructive method. A nondestructive testing of the crispiness is required because the samples can be reused for other kinds of testing. This paper proposed a crispiness classification method of freeze-dried durians using fuzzy logic for decision making. The physical changes of a freeze-dried durian include the pores appearing in the images. Three physical features including (1) the diameters of pores, (2) the ratio of the pore area and the remaining area, and (3) the distribution of the pores are considered to contribute to the crispiness. The fuzzy logic is applied for making the decision. The experimental results comparing with food expert opinion showed that the accuracy of the proposed classification method is 83.33 percent.

Keywords: Durian, crispiness, freeze drying, pore, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: S. M. Abbas, M. A. Hannan, S. A. Samad, A. Hussain

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This paper presented a modified efficient inductive powering link based on ASK modulator and proposed efficient class- E power amplifier. The design presents the external part which is located outside the body to transfer power and data to the implanted devices such as implanted Microsystems to stimulate and monitoring the nerves and muscles. The system operated with low band frequency 10MHZ according to industrial- scientific – medical (ISM) band to avoid the tissue heating. For external part, the modulation index is 11.1% and the modulation rate 7.2% with data rate 1 Mbit/s assuming Tbit = 1us. The system has been designed using 0.35-μm fabricated CMOS technology. The mathematical model is given and the design is simulated using OrCAD P Spice 16.2 software tool and for real-time simulation, the electronic workbench MULISIM 11 has been used.

Keywords: Implanted devices, ASK techniques, Class-E power amplifier, Inductive powering and low-frequency ISM band.

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Authors: Abdel-Rahman A., El Okle O. S.

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Fever, bloody diarrhea and high mortality rate were the main clinical finding in a group of fattening calves. Analysis of corn silage revealed presence of aflatoxins at level of 370 ppb. This level of aflatoxins in the feed of cattle is somewhat low to be the main cause of reported signs. Leukocytopenia, anemia, decreased lymphocytic activity and lowered phagocytic index are the main hematological and immunological alterations in diseased calves. Bacteriological investigation revealed isolation of pathogenic Salmonella typhimurium from the rectal swabs of diseased calves. Our results suggested that, long duration of exposure to aflatoxins even at small concentrations may considered as predisposing factor for the incidence of natural infectious outbreaks as salmonellosis due to its immunosuppressive effect. We can conclude that the veterinarians and owners must be given an attention to the relation between aflatoxicosis and salmonellosis under field condition. We are recommended that the treatment program during similar outbreaks must be including anti-aflatoxins preparations beside the antimicrobial therapy.

Keywords: Aflatoxins, Calves, Salmonellosis.

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Authors: Claudia Camargo, Enrique J. de la Vega, Jesús E. Olguín, Juan A. López, Sandra K. Enríquez

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This study focuses on the application of sensory thermography, as a non-invasive method to evaluate the musculoskeletal injuries that industry workers performing Highly Repetitive Movements (HRM) may acquire. It was made at a wireless company having the target of analyze temperatures in worker’s wrists, elbows and shoulders in workstations during their activities, this thru sensorial thermography with the goal of detecting maximum temperatures (Tmax) that could indicate possible injuries. The tests were applied during 3 hours for only 2 workers that work in workstations where there’s been the highest index of injuries and accidents. We were made comparisons for each part of the body that were study for both because of the similitude between the activities of the workstations; they were requiring both an immediate evaluation. The Tmax was recorder during the test of the worker 2, in the left wrist, reaching a temperature of 35.088ºC and with a maximum increase of 1.856°C

Keywords: Highly Repetitive Movements (HRM), Maximum temperatures (Tmax), Worker.

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Authors: Shatha A. Yousif, Qasim M. Zamil, Hasan Y. Al Muhi, Jamal A. Al Shammari

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Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of the major vegetable crops that are grown world –wide because of its economic importance. This experiment investigated the effect of local sands (River Base, Al-Ekader and Karbala) on number and total weight of minitubers. Statistical analysis revealed that there were no significant differences among sand cultures in number of stem/plant, chlorophyll index and tubers dry weight. River Base sand had the highest plant height (74.9 cm), leaf number/plant number (39.3), leaf area (84.4 dcm2⁄plant), dry weight/plant (26.31), tubers number/plant (8.5), tubers weight/plant (635.53 gm) and potato tuber yields/trove (28.60 kg), whereas the Karbala sand had lower performance. All the characters had positive and significant correlation with yields except the traits number of stem and tuber dry weight.

Keywords: Correlation, Potato, Sand Culture, Yield.

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Authors: A. Mojtaba Aghajani, B. Leila Shavakhi

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Energy intensity(energy consumption intensity) is a global index which computes the required energy for producing a specific value of goods and services in each country. It is computed in terms of initial energy supply or final energy consumption. In this study (research) Divisia method is used to decompose energy consumption and energy intensity. This method decomposes consumption and energy intensity to production effects, structural and net intensity and could be done as time series or two-periodical. This study analytically investigates consumption changes and energy intensity on economical sectors of Iran and more specific on road transportation(rail road and road).Our results show that the contribution of structural effect (change in economical activities combination) is very low and the effect of net energy consumption has the higher contribution in consumption changes and energy intensity. In other words, the high consumption of energy is due to Intensity of energy consumption and is not to structural effect of transportation sector.

Keywords: Divisia Method, Energy Intensity, Net IntensityEffect, Road Transportation , Structural Effect.

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Authors: Shen Weishou, Ji Di, Zhang Hui, Yan Shouguang, Li Haidong, Lin Naifeng

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Based on a long-term vegetation index dataset of NDVI and meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and their relations with major climate factors were analyzed. The results show the following: 1) The linear trends of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau indicate that the temperature in the plateau generally increased, but it rose faster in the last 20 years. 2) The most significant NDVI increase occurred in the eastern and southern plateau. However, the western and northern plateau demonstrate a decreasing trend. 3) There is a significant positive linear correlation between NDVI and temperature and a negative correlation between NDVI and mean wind speed. However, no significant statistical relationship was found between NDVI and relative humidity, precipitation or sunshine duration.4) The changes in NDVI for the plateau are driven by temperature-precipitation, but for the desert and forest areas, the relation changes to precipitation-temperature-wind velocity and wind velocity-temperature-precipitation.

Keywords: Qinghai-Tibet plateau, NDVI, climate warming.

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Authors: Nan Li, Ying Wang

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Using entropy weight and TOPSIS method, a comprehensive evaluation is done on the development level of Chinese regional service industry in this paper. Firstly, based on existing research results, an evaluation index system is constructed from the scale of development, the industrial structure and the economic benefits. An evaluation model is then built up based on entropy weight and TOPSIS, and an empirical analysis is conducted on the development level of service industries in 31 Chinese provinces during 2006 and 2009 from the two dimensions or time series and cross section, which provides new idea for assessing regional service industry. Furthermore, the 31 provinces are classified into four categories based on the evaluation results, and deep analysis is carried out on the evaluation results.

Keywords: Chinese regional service industry, Development level, Entropy weight, TOPSIS Evaluation Method

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Authors: Seyed Alireza Valadabadi, Hossein Aliabadi Farahani

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This experiment was carried out to study the effect of AMF, drought stress and phosphorus on physiological growth indices of basil at Iran using by a split-plot design with three replications. The main-plot factor included: two levels of irrigation regimes (control=no drought stress and irrigation after 80 evaporation= drought stress condition) while the sub-plot factors included phosphorus (0, 35 and 70 kg/ha) and application and non-application of Glomus fasciculatum. The results showed that total dry matter (TDM), life area index (LAI), relative growth rate (RGR) and crop growth rate (CGR) were all highly significantly different among the phosphorus, whereas drought stress had effect of practical significance on TDM, LAI, RGR and CGR. The results also showed that the highest TDM, LAI, RGR and CGR were obtained from application of Glomus fasciculatum under no-drought condition.

Keywords: Drought stress, Glomus fasciculatum, physiological growth indices

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Authors: M. Fathi, M. J. Alvarez, V. Rodríguez

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Assembly line balancing is a very important issue in mass production systems due to production cost. Although many studies have been done on this topic, but because assembly line balancing problems are so complex they are categorized as NP-hard problems and researchers strongly recommend using heuristic methods. This paper presents a new heuristic approach called the critical task method (CTM) for solving U-shape assembly line balancing problems. The performance of the proposed heuristic method is tested by solving a number of test problems and comparing them with 12 other heuristics available in the literature to confirm the superior performance of the proposed heuristic. Furthermore, to prove the efficiency of the proposed CTM, the objectives are increased to minimize the number of workstation (or equivalently maximize line efficiency), and minimizing the smoothness index. Finally, it is proven that the proposed heuristic is more efficient than the others to solve the U-shape assembly line balancing problem.

Keywords: Critical task method, Heuristic, Line balancingproblem, U-shape

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Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo

Abstract:

The acidity (citric acid) is the one of chemical content that can be refer to the internal quality and it’s a maturity index of tomato, The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR) spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomato.

Keywords: Tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid.

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Authors: Asep Bayu Dani Nandiyanto, Asep Suhendi, Yutaka Kisakibaru, Takashi Ogi, Kikuo Okuyama

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An ordered porous antimony-doped tin oxide (ATO) film was successfully prepared using a simple coating process with colloidal templates. The facile production was effective when a combination of 16-nm ATO (as a model of an inorganic nanoparticle) and polystyrene (PS) spheres (as a model of the template) weresimply coated to produce a composite ATO/PS film. Heat treatment was then used to remove the PS and produce the porous film. The porous film with a spherical pore shape and a highly ordered porous structure could be obtained. A potential way for the control of pore size could be also achieved by changing initial template size. The theoretical explanation and mechanism of porous formation were also added, which would be important for the scaling-up prediction and estimation.

Keywords: Porous structure film; ATO particle; Ultra-low refractive index; vertical drop method; Low-density material;

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Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel

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The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.

Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alexandr Bozek, Eduard Bakos, Jiri Dvorak, Alena Bumbova, Lenka Jesonkova

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The case study deals with the semi-quantitative risk assessment of water resource earmarked for the emergency supply of population with drinking water. The risk analysis has been based on previously identified hazards/sensitivities of the elements of hydrogeological structure and technological equipment of ground water resource as well as on the assessment of the levels of hazard, sensitivity and criticality of individual resource elements in the form of point indexes. The following potential sources of hazard have been considered: natural disasters caused by atmospheric and geological changes, technological hazards, and environmental burdens. The risk analysis has proved that the assessed risks are acceptable and the water resource may be integrated into a crisis plan of a given region.

Keywords: Crisis, emergency, frequency, ground water, hazard, point index, risk, sensitivity, water supply.

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