Search results for: Distribution system reliability

Authors: Iman Atighi, Jalal Soleimannejad, Reza Pourjafarabadi, Saeid Moradpour

Abstract:

In the past, we could increase profit by increasing product prices. But in the new decade, a competitive market does not let us to increase profit with increased prices. Therefore, the only way to increase profit will be to reduce costs. A significant percentage of production costs are the maintenance costs, and analysis of these costs could achieve more profit. Most maintenance strategies such as RCM (Reliability-Center-Maintenance), TPM (Total Productivity Maintenance), PM (Preventive Maintenance) and etc., are trying to reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, decreasing the maintenance costs of Concentration Plant of Golgohar Iron Ore Mining & Industrial Company (GeG) was examined by using of MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) and MTTR (Mean Time To Repair) analyses. These analyses showed that instead of buying new machines and increasing costs in order to promote capacity, the improving of MTBF and MTTR indexes would solve capacity problems in the best way and decrease costs.

Keywords: GeG Company, maintainability, maintenance costs, reliability-center-maintenance.

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Authors: Ahmad T. Al-Taani

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Car failure detection is a complicated process and requires high level of expertise. Any attempt of developing an expert system dealing with car failure detection has to overcome various difficulties. This paper describes a proposed knowledge-based system for car failure detection. The paper explains the need for an expert system and the some issues on developing knowledge-based systems, the car failure detection process and the difficulties involved in developing the system. The system structure and its components and their functions are described. The system has about 150 rules for different types of failures and causes. It can detect over 100 types of failures. The system has been tested and gave promising results.

Keywords: Expert system, car failure diagnosis, knowledgebasedsystem, CLIPS.

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Authors: Walid Cherif

Abstract:

Data mining has, over recent years, seen big advances because of the spread of internet, which generates everyday a tremendous volume of data, and also the immense advances in technologies which facilitate the analysis of these data. In particular, classification techniques are a subdomain of Data Mining which determines in which group each data instance is related within a given dataset. It is used to classify data into different classes according to desired criteria. Generally, a classification technique is either statistical or machine learning. Each type of these techniques has its own limits. Nowadays, current data are becoming increasingly heterogeneous; consequently, current classification techniques are encountering many difficulties. This paper defines new measure functions to quantify the resemblance between instances and then combines them in a new approach which is different from actual algorithms by its reliability computations. Results of the proposed approach exceeded most common classification techniques with an f-measure exceeding 97% on the IRIS Dataset.

Keywords: Data mining, knowledge discovery, machine learning, similarity measurement, supervised classification.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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This paper presents a method for the optimal allocation of Distributed generation in distribution systems. In this paper, our aim would be optimal distributed generation allocation for voltage profile improvement and loss reduction in distribution network. Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used as the solving tool, which referring two determined aim; the problem is defined and objective function is introduced. Considering to fitness values sensitivity in genetic algorithm process, there is needed to apply load flow for decision-making. Load flow algorithm is combined appropriately with GA, till access to acceptable results of this operation. We used MATPOWER package for load flow algorithm and composed it with our Genetic Algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and applied ETAP software for evaluating of results correctness. It was implemented on part of Tehran electricity distributing grid. The resulting operation of this method on some testing system is illuminated improvement of voltage profile and loss reduction indexes.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Allocation, Voltage Profile, losses, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Lili Warly, Evitayani, A. Fariani

Abstract:

This study was carried out to evaluate concentration of micro minerals (Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu and Se) of forages and their distribution in fiber fraction (neutral detergent fiber/NDF and acid detergent fiber/ADF) in South Sumatra during dry and rainy seasons. Seven species of commonly forages namely Axonopus compressus, Panicum maximum, Pennisetum purpuphoides, Leucaena leucocephala, Centrocema pubescens, Calopogonium mucunoides and Acacia mangium were collected at native pasture during rainy and dry seasons. The results showed that micro minerals concentration of forages and their distribution in fiber fraction varied among species and season. In general, concentration of micro minerals was slightly higher in rainy season compared to dry season either in grass or legumes forages. In grass, concentration of Fe and Mn were above the critical level, while 33.3 %, 100 % and 16.7 % of evaluated grass were deficient in Zn, Cu and Se. Data on legume forages show that 75 % of legumes were deficient in Zn and Mn, 62.5 % deficient in Cu and 50 % deficient in Se. There was no species of legume deficient in Fe. Distribution of micro minerals in NDF and ADF were also significantly affected by species and season and depends on the kinds of element measured. Generally, micro minerals were associated in fiber fractions much higher during dry season compared to rainy season. Iron (Fe) and selenium (Se) in forages were the highest elements associated in NDF and ADF, while the lowest was found in Copper (Cu).

Keywords: Seasons, forages, micro mineral distribution, fiberfraction.

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Authors: Shin Je Lee, Go Bong Choi, Jeong Cheol Seo, Jong Min Lee, Gibaek Lee

Abstract:

Water pipe network is installed underground and once equipped, it is difficult to recognize the state of pipes when the leak or burst happens. Accordingly, post management is often delayed after the fault occurs. Therefore, the systematic fault management system of water pipe network is required to prevent the accident and minimize the loss. In this work, we develop online fault detection system of water pipe network using data of pipes such as flow rate or pressure. The transient model describing water flow in pipelines is presented and simulated using MATLAB. The fault situations such as the leak or burst can be also simulated and flow rate or pressure data when the fault happens are collected. Faults are detected using statistical methods of fast Fourier transform and discrete wavelet transform, and they are compared to find which method shows the better fault detection performance.

Keywords: fault detection, water pipeline model, fast Fourier transform, discrete wavelet transform.

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Authors: Design of 3-Step Skew BLAC Motor for Better Performance in Electric Power Steering System

Abstract:

In Electric Power Steering (EPS), spoke type Brushless AC (BLAC) motors offer distinct advantages over other electric motor types in terms torque smoothness, reliability and efficiency. This paper deals with the shape optimization of spoke type BLAC motor, in order to reduce cogging torque. This paper examines 3 steps skewing rotor angle, optimizing rotor core edge and rotor overlap length for reducing cogging torque in spoke type BLAC motor. The methods were applied to existing machine designs and their performance was calculated using finite- element analysis (FEA). Prototypes of the machine designs were constructed and experimental results obtained. It is shown that the FEA predicted the cogging torque to be nearly reduce using those methods.

Keywords: EPS, 3-Step skewing, spoke type BLAC, cogging torque, FEA, optimization.

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Authors: Rohit Kumar Shrivastava, Amalia Thomas, Nathalie Vriend, Stefan Luding

Abstract:

A mechanical wave or vibration propagating through granular media exhibits a specific signature in time. A coherent pulse or wavefront arrives first with multiply scattered waves (coda) arriving later. The coherent pulse is micro-structure independent i.e. it depends only on the bulk properties of the disordered granular sample, the sound wave velocity of the granular sample and hence bulk and shear moduli. The coherent wavefront attenuates (decreases in amplitude) and broadens with distance from its source. The pulse attenuation and broadening effects are affected by disorder (polydispersity; contrast in size of the granules) and have often been attributed to dispersion and scattering. To study the effect of disorder and initial amplitude (non-linearity) of the pulse imparted to the system on the coherent wavefront, numerical simulations have been carried out on one-dimensional sets of particles (granular chains). The interaction force between the particles is given by a Hertzian contact model. The sizes of particles have been selected randomly from a Gaussian distribution, where the standard deviation of this distribution is the relevant parameter that quantifies the effect of disorder on the coherent wavefront. Since, the coherent wavefront is system configuration independent, ensemble averaging has been used for improving the signal quality of the coherent pulse and removing the multiply scattered waves. The results concerning the width of the coherent wavefront have been formulated in terms of scaling laws. An experimental set-up of photoelastic particles constituting a granular chain is proposed to validate the numerical results.

Keywords: Discrete elements, Hertzian Contact, polydispersity, weakly nonlinear, wave propagation.

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Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi

Abstract:

This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.

Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.

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Authors: A. Nour Eddine, D. Chalet, L. Aixala, P. Chessé, X. Faure, N. Hatat

Abstract:

Thermal power technology such as the TEG (Thermo-Electric Generator) arouses significant attention worldwide for waste heat recovery. Despite the potential benefits of marine application due to the permanent heat sink from sea water, no significant studies on this application were to be found. In this study, a test rig has been designed and built to test the performance of the TEG on engine operating points. The TEG device is built from commercially available materials for the sake of possible economical application. Two types of commercial TEM (thermo electric module) have been studied separately on the test rig. The engine data were extracted from a commercial Diesel engine since it shares the same principle in terms of engine efficiency and exhaust with the marine Diesel engine. An open circuit water cooling system is used to replicate the sea water cold source. The characterization tests showed that the silicium-germanium alloys TEM proved a remarkable reliability on all engine operating points, with no significant deterioration of performance even under sever variation in the hot source conditions. The performance of the bismuth-telluride alloys was 100% better than the first type of TEM but it showed a deterioration in power generation when the air temperature exceeds 300 °C. The temperature distribution on the heat exchange surfaces revealed no useful combination of these two types of TEM with this tube length, since the surface temperature difference between both ends is no more than 10 °C. This study exposed the perspective of use of TEG technology for marine engine exhaust heat recovery. Although the results suggested non-sufficient power generation from the low cost commercial TEM used, it provides valuable information about TEG device optimization, including the design of heat exchanger and the types of thermo-electric materials.

Keywords: Internal combustion engine application, Seebeck, thermo-electricity, waste heat recovery.

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Authors: Kiran Kumar K, Ramesh Babu Bejjam, Atul Najan

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A thermosyphon system is a heat transfer loop which operates on the basis of gravity and buoyancy forces. It guarantees a good reliability and low maintenance cost as it does not involve any mechanical pump. Therefore, it can be used in many industrial applications such as refrigeration and air conditioning, electronic cooling, nuclear reactors, geothermal heat extraction, etc. But flow instabilities and loop configuration are the major problems in this system. Several previous researchers studied that stabilities can be suppressed by using nanofluids as loop fluid. In the present study a rectangular thermosyphon loop with end heat exchangers are considered for the study. This configuration is more appropriate for many practical applications such as solar water heater, geothermal heat extraction, etc. In the present work, steady-state analysis is carried out on thermosyphon loop with parallel flow coaxial heat exchangers at heat source and heat sink. In this loop nanofluid is considered as the loop fluid and water is considered as the external fluid in both hot and cold heat exchangers. For this analysis onedimensional homogeneous model is developed. In this model, conservation equations like conservation of mass, momentum, energy are discretized using finite difference method. A computer code is written in MATLAB to simulate the flow in thermosyphon loop. A comparison in terms of heat transfer is made between water and nanofluid as working fluids in the loop.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, Heat transfer, Nanofluid, Thermosyphon loop.

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Authors: Xinjian Kou, Linlin Li, Yongju Zhou, Jimian Song

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We introduce the redundancy matrix that expresses clearly the geometrical/topological configuration of the structure. With the matrix, the redundancy of the structure is resolved into redundant components and assigned to each member or rigid joint. The values of the diagonal elements in the matrix indicates the importance of the corresponding members or rigid joints, and the geometrically correlations can be shown with the non-diagonal elements. If a member or rigid joint failures, reassignment of the redundant components can be calculated with the recursive method given in the paper. By combining the indexes of reliability and redundancy components, we define an index concerning the structural robustness. To further explain the properties of the redundancy matrix, we cited several examples of statically indeterminate structures, including two trusses and a rigid frame. With the examples, some simple results and the properties of the matrix are discussed. The examples also illustrate that the redundancy matrix and the relevant concepts are valuable in structural safety analysis.

Keywords: Structural robustness, structural reliability, redundancy component, redundancy matrix.

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Authors: Buse A. Ataç, Doğan K. Cenan, Arda Çetinkaya, Naz D. Şahin, Köksal Sanlı, Zeynep Koç, Akın Kısa

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With its spatial data reliability, interpretation and questioning capabilities, Geographical Information Systems make significant contributions to scientists, planners and practitioners. Geographic information systems have received great attention in today's digital world, growing rapidly, and increasing the efficiency of use. Access to and use of current and accurate geographical data, which are the most important components of the Geographical Information System, has become a necessity rather than a need for sustainable and economic development. This project aims to enable sharing of data collected by public institutions and organizations on a web-based platform. Within the scope of the project, INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community) data specifications are considered as a road-map. In this context, Turkey's National Geographic Information System (TUCBS) Integration Project supports sharing spatial data within 61 pilot public institutions as complied with defined national standards. In this paper, which is prepared by the project team members in the TUCBS Integration Project, the technical process with a detailed methodology is explained. In this context, the main technical processes of the Project consist of Geographic Data Analysis, Geographic Data Harmonization (Standardization), Web Service Creation (WMS, WFS) and Metadata Creation-Publication. In this paper, the integration process carried out to provide the data produced by 61 institutions to be shared from the National Geographic Data Portal (GEOPORTAL), have been trying to be conveyed with a detailed methodology.

Keywords: Data specification, geoportal, GIS, INSPIRE, TUCBS, Turkey’s National Geographic Information System.

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Authors: Jenica Ileana Corcau, Liviu Dinca

Abstract:

The electrical power systems of aircrafts have made serious progress in recent years because the aircrafts depend more and more on the electricity. There is a trend in the aircraft industry to replace hydraulic and pneumatic systems with electrical systems, achieving more comfort and monitoring features and enlarging the energetic efficiency. Thus, was born the concept More Electric Aircraft. In this paper is analyzed the integration of a fuel cell into the existing electrical generation and distribution systems of an aircraft. The dynamic characteristics of fuel cell systems necessitate an adaptation of the electrical power system. The architecture studied in this paper consists of a 50kW fuel cell, a dc to dc converter and several loads. The dc to dc converter is used to step down the fuel cell voltage from about 625Vdc to 28Vdc.

Keywords: Electrical power system, More Electric Aircraft, Fuel Cell, dc to dc converter

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Viktor M. Denisov

Abstract:

A robust sequential nonparametric method is proposed for adaptation to background noise parameters for real-time. The distribution of background noise was modelled like to Huber contamination mixture. The method is designed to operate as an adaptation-unit, which is included inside a detection subsystem of an integrated multichannel monitoring system. The proposed method guarantees the given size of a nonasymptotic confidence set for noise parameters. Properties of the suggested method are rigorously proved. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in real conditions of a functioning C-OTDR monitoring system, which was designed to monitor railways.

Keywords: Guaranteed estimation, multichannel monitoring systems, non-asymptotic confidence set, contamination mixture.

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Authors: Rosziati Ibrahim, Tiu Kian Yong

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Reverse Engineering is a very important process in Software Engineering. It can be performed backwards from system development life cycle (SDLC) in order to get back the source data or representations of a system through analysis of its structure, function and operation. We use reverse engineering to introduce an automatic tool to generate system requirements from its program source codes. The tool is able to accept the Cµ programming source codes, scan the source codes line by line and parse the codes to parser. Then, the engine of the tool will be able to generate system requirements for that specific program to facilitate reuse and enhancement of the program. The purpose of producing the tool is to help recovering the system requirements of any system when the system requirements document (SRD) does not exist due to undocumented support of the system.

Keywords: System Requirements, Reverse Engineering, SourceCodes.

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Authors: M. Invigorito, G. Elia, M. Panelli

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Hybrid propulsion combines beneficial properties of both solid and liquid rockets, such as multiple restarts, throttability as well as simplicity and reduced costs. A nitrous oxide (N₂O)/paraffin-based hybrid rocket engine demonstrator is currently under development at the Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) within the national research program HYPROB, funded by the Italian Ministry of Research. Nitrous oxide belongs to the class of self-pressurizing propellants that exhibit a high vapor pressure at standard ambient temperature. This peculiar feature makes those fluids very attractive for space rocket applications because it avoids the use of complex pressurization systems, leading to great benefits in terms of weight savings and reliability. To avoid feed-system-coupled instabilities, the phase change is required to occur through the injectors. In this regard, the oxidizer is stored in liquid condition while target chamber pressures are designed to lie below vapor pressure. The consequent cavitation and flash vaporization constitute a remarkably complex phenomenology that arises great modelling challenges. Thus, it is clear that the design of the injection system is fundamental for the full exploitation of hybrid rocket engine throttability. The Analytical Hierarchy Process has been used to select the injection architecture as best compromise among different design criteria such as functionality, technology innovation and cost. The impossibility to use engineering simplified relations for the dimensioning of the injectors led to the needs of applying a numerical approach based on OpenFOAM^®. The numerical tool has been validated with selected experimental data from literature. Quantitative, as well as qualitative comparisons are performed in terms of mass flow rate and pressure drop across the injector for several operating conditions. The results show satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. Modeling assumptions, together with their impact on numerical predictions are discussed in the paper. Once assessed the reliability of the numerical tool, the injection plate has been designed and sized to guarantee the required amount of oxidizer in the combustion chamber and therefore to assure high combustion efficiency. To this purpose, the plate has been designed with multiple injectors whose number and diameter have been selected in order to reach the requested mass flow rate for the two operating conditions of maximum and minimum thrust. The overall design has been finally verified through three-dimensional computations in cavitating non-reacting conditions and it has been verified that the proposed design solution is able to guarantee the requested values of mass flow rates.

Keywords: Hybrid rocket, injection system design, OpenFOAM®, cavitation

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Authors: Th. Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

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Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analyzed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on Z^DIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, Serial correlation, Mann Kendall test.

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Authors: Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Joshua Phelan, Mehdi Shahparvari

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With a large percentage of countries’ total infrastructure expenditure attributed to water network maintenance, it is essential to optimise maintenance strategies to rehabilitate or replace underground pipes before failure occurs. The aim of this paper is to provide water utility managers with a maintenance management approach for underground water pipes, subject to external loading and material corrosion, to give the lowest life cycle cost over a predetermined time period. This reliability-based maintenance management methodology details the optimal years for intervention, the ideal number of maintenance activities to perform before replacement and specifies feasible renewal options and intervention prioritisation to minimise the life cycle cost. The study was then extended to include feasible renewal methods by determining the structural condition index and potential for soil loss, then obtaining the failure impact rating to assist in prioritising pipe replacement. A case study on optimisation of maintenance plans for the Melbourne water pipe network is considered in this paper to evaluate the practicality of the proposed methodology. The results confirm that the suggested methodology can provide water utility managers with a reliable systematic approach to determining optimum maintenance plans for pipe networks.

Keywords: Water pipe networks, maintenance management, reliability analysis, optimum maintenance plan.

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: Human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, Prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset.

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Authors: M. S. Kelaiaia, H. Labar, S. Kelaiaia, T. Mesbah

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The development of the power electronics has allowed increasing the precision and reliability of the electrical devices, thanks to the adjustable inverters, as the Pulse Wide Modulation (PWM) applied to the three level inverters, which is the object of this study. The authors treat the relation between the law order adopted for a given system and the oscillations of the electrical and mechanical parameters of which the tolerance depends on the process with which they are integrated (paper factory, lifting of the heavy loads, etc.).Thus, the best choice of the regulation indexes allows us to achieve stability and safety training without investment (management of existing equipment). The optimal behavior of any electric device can be achieved by the minimization of the stored electrical and mechanical energy.

Keywords: Multi level inverter, PWM, Harmonics, oscillation, control.

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Authors: Kul Pun, F. A. Hamad, T. Ahmed, J. O. Ugwu, J. Eyers, G. Lawson, P. A. Russell

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Determining droplet size and distribution is essential when determining the separation efficiency of a two/three-phase separator. This paper investigates the effect of liquid flow and oil pad thickness on the droplet size at the lab scale. The findings show that increasing the inlet flow rates of the oil and water results in size reduction of the droplets and increasing the thickness of the oil pad increases the size of the droplets. The data were fitted with a simple Gaussian model, and the parameters of mean, standard deviation, and amplitude were determined. Trends have been obtained for the fitted parameters as a function of the Reynolds number, which suggest a way forward to better predict the starting parameters for population models when simulating separation using CFD packages. The key parameter to predict to fix the position of the Gaussian distribution was found to be the mean droplet size.

Keywords: Two-phase separator, average bubble droplet, bubble size distribution, liquid-liquid phase.

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Authors: Liang Hua, Yi Wen

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This evaluation of land supply system performance in China shall examine the combination of government functions and national goals in order to perform a cost-benefit analysis of system results. From the author's point of view, it is most productive to evaluate land supply system performance at moments of system transformation for the following reasons. The behavior and input-output change of beneficial results at different times can be observed when the system or policy changes and system performance can be evaluated through a cost-benefit analysis during the process of system transformation. Moreover, this evaluation method can avoid the influence of land resource endowment. Different land resource endowment methods and different economy development periods result in different systems. This essay studies the contents, principles and methods of land supply system performance evaluation. Taking Beijing as an example, this essay optimizes and classifies the land supply index, makes a quantitative evaluation of land supply system performance through principal component analysis (PCA), and finally analyzes the factors that influence land supply system performance at times of system transformation.

Keywords: Land supply, System performance, System transformation

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Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

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Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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Authors: Essam A. Al-Bahkali, Mahir H. Es-saheb, Jonny Herwan

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In this study the elastic-plastic stress distribution in weld-bonded joint, fabricated from austenitic stainless steel (AISI 304) sheet of 1.00 mm thickness and Epoxy adhesive Araldite 2011, subjected to axial loading is investigated. This is needed to improve design procedures and welding codes, and saving efforts in the cumbersome experiments and analysis. Therefore, a complete 3-D finite element modelling and analysis of spot welded, bonded and weld-bonded joints under axial loading conditions is carried out. A comprehensive systematic experimental program is conducted to determine many properties and quantities, of the base metals and the adhesive, needed for FE modelling, such like the elastic – plastic properties, modulus of elasticity, fracture limit, the nugget and heat affected zones (HAZ) properties, etc. Consequently, the finite element models developed, for each case, are used to evaluate stresses distributions across the entire joint, in both the elastic and plastic regions. The stress distribution curves are obtained, particularly in the elastic regions and found to be consistent and in excellent agreement with the published data. Furthermore, the stresses distributions are obtained in the weld-bonded joint and display the best results with almost uniform smooth distribution compared to spot and bonded cases. The stress concentration peaks at the edges of the weld-bonded region, are almost eliminated resulting in achieving the strongest joint of all processes.

Keywords: Spot Welded, Weld-Bonded, Load-Displacement curve, Stress distribution

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Authors: Iman Atighi, Jalal Soleimannejad, Ahmad Akbarinasab, Saeid Moradpour

Abstract:

In the past, we could increase profit by increasing product prices. But in the new decade, a competitive market does not let us to increase profit with increase prices. Therefore, the only way to increase profit will be reduce costs. A significant percentage of production costs are the maintenance costs, and analysis of these costs could achieve more profit. Most maintenance strategies such as RCM (Reliability-Center-Maintenance), TPM (Total Productivity Maintenance), PM (Preventive Maintenance) etc., are trying to reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, decreasing the maintenance costs of Concentration Plant of Golgohar Company (GEG) was examined by using of MTBF (Mean Time between Failures) and MTTR (Mean Time to Repair) analyses. These analyses showed that instead of buying new machines and increasing costs in order to promote capacity, the improving of MTBF and MTTR indexes would solve capacity problems in the best way and decrease costs.

Keywords: Golgohar Iron Ore Mining & Industrial Company, maintainability, maintenance costs, reliability-center-maintenance.

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Authors: Abdenour Bourabaa, Mohamed Saighi, Said El Metenani

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In the present work an investigation of the effects of the air frontal velocity, relative humidity and dry air temperature on the heat transfer characteristics of plain finned tube evaporator has been conducted. Using an appropriate correlation for the air side heat transfer coefficient the temperature distribution along the fin surface was calculated using a dimensionless temperature distribution. For a constant relative humidity and bulb temperature, it is found that the temperature distribution decreases with increasing air frontal velocity. Apparently, it is attributed to the condensate water film flowing over the fin surface. When dry air temperature and face velocity are being kept constant, the temperature distribution decreases with the increase of inlet relative humidity. An increase in the inlet relative humidity is accompanied by a higher amount of moisture on the fin surface. This results in a higher amount of latent heat transfer which involves higher fin surface temperature. For the influence of dry air temperature, the results here show an increase in the dimensionless temperature parameter with a decrease in bulb temperature. Increasing bulb temperature leads to higher amount of sensible and latent heat transfer when other conditions remain constant.

Keywords: Fin efficiency, heat and mass transfer, dehumidifying conditions, finned tube heat exchangers.

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Authors: Yan Su, L. C. Chan

Abstract:

A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.

Keywords: Grid Connected, RMSD, Solar PV System, Typical Day.

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Authors: Garima Srivastava, R. K. Srivastava, R. C. Vaishya

Abstract:

Decision Support System (DSS), a query-based system meant to help decision makers to use a variety of information for decision making, plays a very vital role in sustainable growth of any country. For this very purpose it is essential to analyze the educational system because education is the only way through which people can be made aware as to how to sustain our planet. The purpose of this paper is to prepare a decision support system for efficiency evaluation of education system with the help of Distributed Geographical Information System.

Keywords: Distributed GIS, Web GIS, Spatial Decision Support System, Bundelkhand Zone, Efficiency, Primary School Education.

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Authors: Rita C. Ramos

Abstract:

Medical Surgical Nursing is one of the major subjects in nursing. This study examined the validity and reliability of the achievement examination utilizing the Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory. The study answered the following objectives specifically : ( a) To establish the validity and reliability of the achievement examination utilizing Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory ; ( b ) To determine the dimensionality measure of items and ( c ) to compare the item difficulty and item discrimination of the Medical Surgical Nursing Achievement examination using Classical Test Theory ( CTT ) and Item Response Theory ( IRT ). The developed instrument was administered to fourth year nursing students (N= 136) of a private university in Manila. The findings yielded the following results: The achievement examination is reliable both using CTT and IRT. The findings indicate person and item statistics from two frameworks are quite alike. The achievement examination formed a unidimensional construct.

Keywords: Achievement Examination, Item Response Theory, Medical Surgical, Nursing.

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