Search results for: Decision tree modeling

Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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Authors: Rafayel A. Azizyan, Aram E. Gevorgyan, Valeri B. Arakelyan, Emil S. Gevorgyan

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Currently, mathematical and computer modeling are widely used in different biological studies to predict or assess behavior of such a complex systems as a biological are. This study deals with mathematical and computer modeling of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, which play an important role in different biochemical pathways. The main objective of this study is to represent the results from in silico investigation of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions in the presence of uncompetitive inhibitors, as well as to describe in details the inhibition effects. Four models of uncompetitive inhibition were designed using different software packages. Particularly, uncompetitive inhibitor to the first [ES₁] and the second ([ES₁S₂]; [FS₂]) enzyme-substrate complexes have been studied. The simulation, using the same kinetic parameters for all models allowed investigating the behavior of reactions as well as determined some interesting aspects concerning influence of different cases of uncompetitive inhibition. Besides, it has been shown that uncompetitive inhibitors exhibit specific selectivity depending on mechanism of bi-substrate enzymatic reaction. 

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, sequential mechanism, ping-pong mechanism, uncompetitive inhibition.

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Authors: Khalid A. Kaabneh

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This paper introduces and studies new indexing techniques for content-based queries in images databases. Indexing is the key to providing sophisticated, accurate and fast searches for queries in image data. This research describes a new indexing approach, which depends on linear modeling of signals, using bases for modeling. A basis is a set of chosen images, and modeling an image is a least-squares approximation of the image as a linear combination of the basis images. The coefficients of the basis images are taken together to serve as index for that image. The paper describes the implementation of the indexing scheme, and presents the findings of our extensive evaluation that was conducted to optimize (1) the choice of the basis matrix (B), and (2) the size of the index A (N). Furthermore, we compare the performance of our indexing scheme with other schemes. Our results show that our scheme has significantly higher performance.

Keywords: Axial Projection, images, indexing, multimedia database, searching.

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Authors: Taimur Qureshi, Djamel A Zighed

Abstract:

Many supervised induction algorithms require discrete data, even while real data often comes in a discrete and continuous formats. Quality discretization of continuous attributes is an important problem that has effects on speed, accuracy and understandability of the induction models. Usually, discretization and other types of statistical processes are applied to subsets of the population as the entire population is practically inaccessible. For this reason we argue that the discretization performed on a sample of the population is only an estimate of the entire population. Most of the existing discretization methods, partition the attribute range into two or several intervals using a single or a set of cut points. In this paper, we introduce a technique by using resampling (such as bootstrap) to generate a set of candidate discretization points and thus, improving the discretization quality by providing a better estimation towards the entire population. Thus, the goal of this paper is to observe whether the resampling technique can lead to better discretization points, which opens up a new paradigm to construction of soft decision trees.

Keywords: Bootstrap, discretization, resampling, soft decision trees.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper aims to select the best military attack helicopter to purchase by the Armed Forces and provide greater reconnaissance and offensive combat capability in military operations. For this purpose, a multiple criteria decision analysis method integrated with the variance weight procedure was applied to the military attack helicopter selection problem. A real military aviation case problem is conducted to support the Armed Forces decision-making process and contributes to the better performance of the Armed Forces. Application of the methodology resulted in ranking lists for ordering and prioritizing attack helicopters, providing transparency and simplicity to the decision-making process. Nine military attack helicopter models were analyzed in the light of strategic, tactical, and operational criteria, considering attack helicopters. The selected military attack helicopter would be used for fire support and reconnaissance activities required by the Armed Forces operation. This study makes a valuable contribution to the problem of military attack helicopter selection, as it represents a state-of-the-art application of the MCDMA method to contribute to the solution of a real problem of the Armed Forces. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to solve real problems of a wide variety, especially strategic, tactical and operational, and is, therefore, a very useful method for decision making.

Keywords: aircraft selection, military attack helicopter selection, attack helicopter fleet planning, MCDMA, multiple criteria analysis, multiple criteria decision making analysis, distance function measure

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Authors: Nazir Ahmad Zafar, Nabeel Sabir, Amir Ali

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Functionalities and control behavior are both primary requirements in design of a complex system. Automata theory plays an important role in modeling behavior of a system. Z is an ideal notation which is used for describing state space of a system and then defining operations over it. Consequently, an integration of automata and Z will be an effective tool for increasing modeling power for a complex system. Further, nondeterministic finite automata (NFA) may have different implementations and therefore it is needed to verify the transformation from diagrams to a code. If we describe formal specification of an NFA before implementing it, then confidence over transformation can be increased. In this paper, we have given a procedure for integrating NFA and Z. Complement of a special type of NFA is defined. Then union of two NFAs is formalized after defining their complements. Finally, formal construction of intersection of NFAs is described. The specification of this relationship is analyzed and validated using Z/EVES tool.

Keywords: Modeling, Nondeterministic finite automata, Znotation, Integration of approaches, Validation.

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Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Kargar

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In this paper we introduce Digital Probability Hyper Digraph for modeling random variable as the hierarchical data-oriented model.

Keywords: Data-Oriented Models, Data Structure, DigitalProbability Hyper Digraph, Random Variable, Statistic andProbability.

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Authors: A. Vairis, M. Petousis, B. Kandyla, C. Chrisoulakis

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The human knee joint has a three dimensional geometry with multiple body articulations that produce complex mechanical responses under loads that occur in everyday life and sports activities. To produce the necessary joint compliance and stability for optimal daily function various menisci and ligaments are present while muscle forces are used to this effect. Therefore, knowledge of the complex mechanical interactions of these load bearing structures is necessary when treatment of relevant diseases is evaluated and assisting devices are designed. Numerical tools such as finite element analysis are suitable for modeling such joints in order to understand their physics. They have been used in the current study to develop an accurate human knee joint and model its mechanical behavior. To evaluate the efficacy of this articulated model, static load cases were used for comparison purposes with previous experimentally verified modeling works drawn from literature.

Keywords: biomechanics, finite element modeling, knee joint

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Authors: Hiroshi Yamakawa, Michiko Yoshida, Motohiro Tsuchiya

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The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.

Keywords: Delegation, network centrality, social network, voting ratio.

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Authors: Abeba Nigussie Turi, Xiangming Samuel Li

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Data-driven business models are more typical for established businesses than early-stage startups that strive to penetrate a market. This paper provided an extensive discussion on the principles of data analytics for early-stage digital entrepreneurial businesses. Here, we developed data-driven decision-making (DDDM) framework that applies to startups prone to multifaceted barriers in the form of poor data access, technical and financial constraints, to state some. The startup DDDM framework proposed in this paper is novel in its form encompassing startup data analytics enablers and metrics aligning with startups' business models ranging from customer-centric product development to servitization which is the future of modern digital entrepreneurship.

Keywords: Startup data analytics, data-driven decision-making, data acquisition, data generation, digital entrepreneurship.

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Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

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This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: Model Based Design, MATLAB, Simulink, Stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop, target language compiler.

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, Cao Minh Ahn

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The paper presents the research evolution in the propylene – propane distillation process, especially for the distillation columns equipped with heat pump. The paper is structured in three parts: separation of the propylene-propane mixture, steady state process modeling, and quality control systems. The first part is dedicated to state of art of the two distillation processes. The second part continues the author’s researches of the steady state process modeling. There has been elaborated a software simulation instrument that may be used to dynamic simulation of the process and to design the quality control systems. The last part presents the research of the control systems, especially for quality control systems.

Keywords: Distillation, absorption, heat pump, Unisim Design.

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Authors: Mohammad H. Taheri, David J. Brown, Nasser Sherkat

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Engagement is one of the most important factors in determining successful outcomes and deep learning in students. Existing approaches to detect student engagement involve periodic human observations that are subject to inter-rater reliability. Our solution uses real-time multimodal multisensor data labeled by objective performance outcomes to infer the engagement of students. The study involves four students with a combined diagnosis of cerebral palsy and a learning disability who took part in a 3-month trial over 59 sessions. Multimodal multisensor data were collected while they participated in a continuous performance test. Eye gaze, electroencephalogram, body pose, and interaction data were used to create a model of student engagement through objective labeling from the continuous performance test outcomes. In order to achieve this, a type of continuous performance test is introduced, the Seek-X type. Nine features were extracted including high-level handpicked compound features. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, a series of different machine learning approaches were evaluated. Overall, the random forest classification approach achieved the best classification results. Using random forest, 93.3% classification for engagement and 42.9% accuracy for disengagement were achieved. We compared these results to outcomes from different models: AdaBoost, decision tree, k-Nearest Neighbor, naïve Bayes, neural network, and support vector machine. We showed that using a multisensor approach achieved higher accuracy than using features from any reduced set of sensors. We found that using high-level handpicked features can improve the classification accuracy in every sensor mode. Our approach is robust to both sensor fallout and occlusions. The single most important sensor feature to the classification of engagement and distraction was shown to be eye gaze. It has been shown that we can accurately predict the level of engagement of students with learning disabilities in a real-time approach that is not subject to inter-rater reliability, human observation or reliant on a single mode of sensor input. This will help teachers design interventions for a heterogeneous group of students, where teachers cannot possibly attend to each of their individual needs. Our approach can be used to identify those with the greatest learning challenges so that all students are supported to reach their full potential.

Keywords: Affective computing in education, affect detection, continuous performance test, engagement, flow, HCI, interaction, learning disabilities, machine learning, multimodal, multisensor, physiological sensors, Signal Detection Theory, student engagement.

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Authors: Niina M. Nissinen

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This paper introduces an approach to construct a set of criteria for evaluating alternative options. Content analysis was used to collet criterion elements. Then the elements were classified and organized yielding to hierarchic structure. The reliability of the constructed criteria was evaluated in an experiment. Finally the criteria were used to evaluate alternative options indecision-making.

Keywords: Conceptual analysis, Content Analysis, Criteria, Decision-Making, Evaluation of Candidates

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Authors: M. Khal, Ab. Algouti, A. Algouti

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Water erosion is the major cause of the erosion that shapes the earth's surface. Modeling water erosion requires the use of software and GIS programs, commercial or closed source. The very high prices for commercial GIS licenses, motivates users and researchers to find open source software as relevant and applicable as the proprietary GIS. The objective of this study is the modeling of water erosion and the hydrogeological and morphophysical characterization of the Oued M'Goun watershed (southern flank of the Central High Atlas) developed by free programs of GIS. The very pertinent results are obtained by executing tasks and algorithms in a simple and easy way. Thus, the various geoscientific and geostatistical analyzes of a digital elevation model (SRTM 30 m resolution) and their combination with the treatments and interpretation of satellite imagery information allowed us to characterize the region studied and to map the area most vulnerable to water erosion.

Keywords: Central High-Atlas, hydrogeology, M’Goun watershed, OpenGIS, water erosion.

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Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, František Pochylý, Simona Fialová, Vladimír Habán

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A mathematical model of the additional effects of the liquid in the hydrodynamic gap is presented in the paper. An incompressible viscous fluid is considered. Based on computational modeling are determined the matrices of mass, stiffness and damping. The mathematical model is experimentally verified.

Keywords: Computational modeling, mathematical model, hydrodynamic gap, matrices of mass, stiffness and damping.

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Authors: Buket Metin

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Buildings cause a variety of loads on the environment due to activities performed at each stage of the building life cycle. Construction is the first stage that affects both the natural and built environments at different steps of the process, which can be defined as transportation of materials within the construction site, formation and preparation of materials on-site and the application of materials to realize the building subsystems. All of these steps require the use of technology, which varies based on the facilities that contractors and subcontractors have. Hence, environmental consequences of the construction process should be tackled by focusing on construction technology options used in every step of the process. This paper presents an environmental decision-making model for assessing on-site performances of subcontractors based on the construction technology options which they can supply. First, construction technologies, which constitute information, tools and methods, are classified. Then, environmental performance criteria are set forth related to resource consumption, ecosystem quality, and human health issues. Finally, the model is developed based on the relationships between the construction technology components and the environmental performance criteria. The Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is used for weighting the environmental performance criteria according to environmental priorities of decision-maker(s), while the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used for ranking on-site environmental performances of subcontractors using quantitative data related to the construction technology components. Thus, the model aims to provide an insight to decision-maker(s) about the environmental consequences of the construction process and to provide an opportunity to improve the overall environmental performance of construction sites.

Keywords: Construction process, construction technology, decision making, environmental performance, subcontractors.

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Authors: Oke Oktavianty, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Junji Kaneko, Ken Kaminishi

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Modelica has many advantages and it is very useful in modeling and simulation especially for the multi-domain with a complex technical system. However, the big obstacle for a beginner is to understand the basic concept and to build a new system model for a real system. In order to understand how to solve the simple circuit model by hand translation and to get a better understanding of how modelica works, we provide a detailed explanation about solver ordering system in horizontal and vertical sorting and make some proposals for improvement. In this study, some difficulties in using modelica software with the original concept and the comparison with Finite Element Method (FEM) approach is discussed. We also present our textual modeling approach using FEM concept for acausal and causal model construction. Furthermore, simulation results are provided that demonstrate the comparison between using textual modeling with original coding in modelica and FEM concept.

Keywords: FEM, acausal model, modelica, horizontal and vertical sorting.

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Authors: Mehtap Dursun, E. Ertugrul Karsak, Melis Almula Karadayi

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The management of the health-care wastes is one of the most important problems in Istanbul, a city with more than 12 million inhabitants, as it is in most of the developing countries. Negligence in appropriate treatment and final disposal of the healthcare wastes can lead to adverse impacts to public health and to the environment. This paper employs a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making approach, which is based on the principles of fusion of fuzzy information, 2-tuple linguistic representation model, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), to evaluate health-care waste (HCW) treatment alternatives for Istanbul. The evaluation criteria are determined employing nominal group technique (NGT), which is a method of systematically developing a consensus of group opinion. The employed method is apt to manage information assessed using multigranularity linguistic information in a decision making problem with multiple information sources. The decision making framework employs ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator that encompasses several operators as the aggregation operator since it can implement different aggregation rules by changing the order weights. The aggregation process is based on the unification of information by means of fuzzy sets on a basic linguistic term set (BLTS). Then, the unified information is transformed into linguistic 2-tuples in a way to rectify the problem of loss information of other fuzzy linguistic approaches.

Keywords: Group decision making, health care waste management, multi-criteria decision making, OWA, TOPSIS, 2-tuple linguistic representation

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Authors: Fadi Eleiwi, Taous Meriem Laleg-Kirati

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This paper presents a complete dynamic modeling of a membrane distillation process. The model contains two consistent dynamic models. A 2D advection-diffusion equation for modeling the whole process and a modified heat equation for modeling the membrane itself. The complete model describes the temperature diffusion phenomenon across the feed, membrane, permeate containers and boundary layers of the membrane. It gives an online and complete temperature profile for each point in the domain. It explains heat conduction and convection mechanisms that take place inside the process in terms of mathematical parameters, and justify process behavior during transient and steady state phases. The process is monitored for any sudden change in the performance at any instance of time. In addition, it assists maintaining production rates as desired, and gives recommendations during membrane fabrication stages. System performance and parameters can be optimized and controlled using this complete dynamic model. Evolution of membrane boundary temperature with time, vapor mass transfer along the process, and temperature difference between membrane boundary layers are depicted and included. Simulations were performed over the complete model with real membrane specifications. The plots show consistency between 2D advection-diffusion model and the expected behavior of the systems as well as literature. Evolution of heat inside the membrane starting from transient response till reaching steady state response for fixed and varying times is illustrated.

Keywords: Membrane distillation, Dynamical modeling, Advection-diffusion equation, Thermal equilibrium, Heat equation.

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Authors: Tsuyoshi Okita, Tatsuya Niwa

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For a given specific problem an efficient algorithm has been the matter of study. However, an alternative approach orthogonal to this approach comes out, which is called a reduction. In general for a given specific problem this reduction approach studies how to convert an original problem into subproblems. This paper proposes a formal modeling language to support this reduction approach. We show three examples from the wide area of learning problems. The benefit is a fast prototyping of algorithms for a given new problem.

Keywords: Formal language, statistical inference problem, reduction.

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Authors: Eylem Koç, Hasan Arda Burhan

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Location selection presents a crucial decision problem in today’s business world where strategic decision making processes have critical importance. Thus, location selection has strategic importance for companies in boosting their strength regarding competition, increasing corporate performances and efficiency in addition to lowering production and transportation costs. A right choice in location selection has a direct impact on companies’ commercial success. In this study, a store location selection problem of Carglass Turkey which operates in vehicle glass branch is handled. As this problem includes both tangible and intangible criteria, Analytic Network Process (ANP) was accepted as the main methodology. The model consists of control hierarchy and BOCR subnetworks which include clusters of actors, alternatives and criteria. In accordance with the management’s choices, five different locations were selected. In addition to the literature review, a strict cooperation with the actor group was ensured and maintained while determining the criteria and during whole process. Obtained results were presented to the management as a report and its feasibility was confirmed accordingly.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process, BOCR, location selection, multi-actor decision making, multi-criteria decision making, real life problem.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: S. Yamini Sudha, Ashok Khanna

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Owing to the stringent environmental legislations, CO2 capture and sequestration is one of the viable solutions to reduce the CO2 emissions from various sources. In this context, Ionic liquids (ILs) are being investigated as suitable absorption media for CO2 capture. Due to their non-evaporative, non-toxic, and non-corrosive nature, these ILs have the potential to replace the existing solvents like aqueous amine solutions for CO2 separation technologies. Thus, the present work aims at studying the important aspects such as the interactions of CO2 molecule with different anions (F-, Br-, Cl-, NO3 -, BF4 -, PF6 -, Tf2N-, and CF3SO3 -) that are commonly used in ILs through molecular modeling. In this, the minimum energy structures have been obtained using Ab initio based calculations at MP2 (Moller-Plesset perturbation) level. Results revealed various degrees of distortion of CO2 molecule (from its linearity) with the anions studied, most likely due to the Lewis acid-base interactions between CO2 and anion. Furthermore, binding energies for the anion-CO2 complexes were also calculated. The implication of anion-CO2 interactions to the solubility of CO2 in ionic liquids is also discussed.

Keywords: CO2, Ionic liquids, capture, molecular modeling, sequestration.

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Authors: Moaz H. Ali, M. N. M. Ansari, Pang Jing Shen

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In present work, prediction the effect of nose radius, rz (mm) on the equivalent strain (PEEQ) and surface finish during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) through orthogonal cutting process. The results were performed at several of the nose radiuses, rz (mm) while the cutting speed, vc (m/min), feed rate, f (mm/tooth) and depth of cut, d (mm) were remained constant. The equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was estimated by using finite element modeling (FEM) and applied through ABAQUS/EXPLICIT software. The simulation results led to conclude that the equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was increased and surface roughness (Ra) decreased when increasing nose radius, rz (mm) during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti–6Al–4V) in dry cutting conditions.

Keywords: Finite element modeling (FEM), nose radius, plastic strain (PEEQ), titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V).

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Authors: Mithilesh Singh, Rakhi Chaturvedi

Abstract:

Neem is a highly heterozygous and commercially important perennial plant. Conventionally, it is propagated by seeds which loose viability within two weeks. Strictly cross pollinating nature of the plant causes serious barrier to the genetic improvement by conventional methods. Alternative methods of tree improvement such as somatic hybridization, mutagenesis and genetic transformation require an efficient in vitro plant regeneration system. In this regard, somatic embryogenesis particularly secondary somatic embryogenesis may offer an effective system for large scale plant propagation without affecting the clonal fidelity of the regenerants. It can be used for synthetic seed production, which further bolsters conservation of this tree species which is otherwise very difficult The present report describes the culture conditions necessary to induce and maintain repetitive somatic embryogenesis, for the first time, in neem. Out of various treatments tested, the somatic embryos were induced directly from immature zygotic embryos of neem on MS + TDZ (0.1 μM) + ABA (4 μM), in more than 76 % cultures. Direct secondary somatic embryogenesis occurred from primary somatic embryos on MS + IAA (5 μM) + GA3 (5 μM) in 12.5 % cultures. Embryogenic competence of the explant as well as of the primary embryos was maintained for a long period by repeated subcultures at frequent intervals. A maximum of 10 % of these somatic embryos were converted into plantlets.

Keywords: Azadirachta indica A. Juss., Cytokinin, Somatic embryogenesis, zygotic embryo culture.

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Authors: Pejman Hosseinioun, Hasan Shakeri, Ghasem Ghorbanirostam

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In recent years, we have seen an increasing importance of research and study on knowledge source, decision support systems, data mining and procedure of knowledge discovery in data bases and it is considered that each of these aspects affects the others. In this article, we have merged information source and knowledge source to suggest a knowledge based system within limits of management based on storing and restoring of knowledge to manage information and improve decision making and resources. In this article, we have used method of data mining and Apriori algorithm in procedure of knowledge discovery one of the problems of Apriori algorithm is that, a user should specify the minimum threshold for supporting the regularity. Imagine that a user wants to apply Apriori algorithm for a database with millions of transactions. Definitely, the user does not have necessary knowledge of all existing transactions in that database, and therefore cannot specify a suitable threshold. Our purpose in this article is to improve Apriori algorithm. To achieve our goal, we tried using fuzzy logic to put data in different clusters before applying the Apriori algorithm for existing data in the database and we also try to suggest the most suitable threshold to the user automatically.

Keywords: Decision support system, data mining, knowledge discovery, data discovery, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: A. Johannet, B. Vayssade, D. Bertin

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Neural networks are well known for their ability to model non linear functions, but as statistical methods usually does, they use a no parametric approach thus, a priori knowledge is not obvious to be taken into account no more than the a posteriori knowledge. In order to deal with these problematics, an original way to encode the knowledge inside the architecture is proposed. This method is applied to the problem of the evapotranspiration inside karstic aquifer which is a problem of huge utility in order to deal with water resource.

Keywords: Neural-Networks, Hydrology, Evapotranpiration, Hidden Function Modeling.

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Authors: George Eleftherakis, Petros Kefalas, Anna Sotiriadou, Evangelos Kehris

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Recent advances in both the testing and verification of software based on formal specifications of the system to be built have reached a point where the ideas can be applied in a powerful way in the design of agent-based systems. The software engineering research has highlighted a number of important issues: the importance of the type of modeling technique used; the careful design of the model to enable powerful testing techniques to be used; the automated verification of the behavioural properties of the system; the need to provide a mechanism for translating the formal models into executable software in a simple and transparent way. This paper introduces the use of the X-machine formalism as a tool for modeling biology inspired agents proposing the use of the techniques built around X-machine models for the construction of effective, and reliable agent-based software systems.

Keywords: Biology inspired agent, formal methods, x-machines.

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Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M.L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash Floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Early Warning Systems, Flash Flood, Natural Hazard.

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