Search results for: nonlinear time history analysis

Authors: S. Umarani, D. Sharmila

Abstract:

A Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to cyber security. It originates from the network layer or the application layer of compromised/attacker systems which are connected to the network. The impact of this attack ranges from the simple inconvenience to use a particular service to causing major failures at the targeted server. When there is heavy traffic flow to a target server, it is necessary to classify the legitimate access and attacks. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to detect DDoS attacks from the traces of traffic flow. An access matrix is created from the traces. As the access matrix is multi dimensional, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the attributes used for detection. Two classifiers Naive Bayes and K-Nearest neighborhood are used to classify the traffic as normal or abnormal. The performance of the classifier with PCA selected attributes and actual attributes of access matrix is compared by the detection rate and False Positive Rate (FPR).

Keywords: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, Application layer DDoS, DDoS Detection, K- Nearest neighborhood classifier, Naive Bayes Classifier, Principle Component Analysis.

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Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Yi-Lin Shieh

Abstract:

This paper deals with the optimal design of two-channel recursive parallelogram quadrature mirror filter (PQMF) banks. The analysis and synthesis filters of the PQMF bank are composed of two-dimensional (2-D) recursive digital all-pass filters (DAFs) with nonsymmetric half-plane (NSHP) support region. The design problem can be facilitated by using the 2-D doubly complementary half-band (DC-HB) property possessed by the analysis and synthesis filters. For finding the coefficients of the 2-D recursive NSHP DAFs, we appropriately formulate the design problem to result in an optimization problem that can be solved by using a weighted least-squares (WLS) algorithm in the minimax (L_∞) optimal sense. The designed 2-D recursive PQMF bank achieves perfect magnitude response and possesses satisfactory phase response without requiring extra phase equalizer. Simulation results are also provided for illustration and comparison.

Keywords: Parallelogram Quadrature Mirror Filter Bank, Doubly Complementary Filter, Nonsymmetric Half-Plane Filter, Weighted Least Squares Algorithm, Digital All-Pass Filter.

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Authors: Hadi Aghazadeh, Seyed Ebrahim Afjei, Alireza Siadatan

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In this paper, a proper approach is taken to assess a set of the most effective rotor design parameters for an external-rotor permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance motor (PMaSynRM) and therefore to tackle the design complexity of the rotor structure. There are different advantages for introducing permanent magnets into the rotor flux barriers, some of which are to saturate the rotor iron ribs, to increase the motor torque density and to improve the power factor. Moreover, the d-axis and q-axis inductances are of great importance to simultaneously achieve maximum developed torque and low torque ripple. Therefore, sensitivity analysis of the rotor geometry of an 8-pole external-rotor permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance motor is performed. Several magnetically accurate finite element analyses (FEA) are conducted to characterize the electromagnetic performance of the motor. The analyses validate torque and power factor equations for the proposed external-rotor motor. Based upon the obtained results and due to an additional term, permanent magnet torque, added to the reluctance torque, the electromagnetic torque of the PMaSynRM increases.

Keywords: Permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance motor, flux barrier, flux carrier, electromagnetic torque, and power factor.

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Authors: Reinaldo Biscaro, Luciano R. Ferreira, Leonardo C. Biscaro, Raphael C. Biscaro, Isabela S. Vasconcelos, Laura C. R. Ferreira, Cristiano M. Galhardi, Erica P. Baciuk

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Introduction: The present study had the objective to present the profile of workers with shoulder disorders related to labor lawsuits in Brazil. The study analyzed the association between the worker’s health and the actions performed by the companies related to injured professional. The research method performed a retrospective, cross-sectional and quantitative database analysis. The documents of labor lawsuits with shoulder injury registered at the Regional Labor Court in the 15^th region (Campinas - São Paulo) were submitted to the medical examination and evaluated during the period from 2012 until 2015. The data collected were age, gender, onset of symptoms, length of service, current occupation, type of shoulder injury, referred complaints, type of acromion, associated or related diseases, company actions as CAT (workplace accident communication), compliance of NR7 by the organization (Environmental Risk Prevention Program - PPRA and Medical Coordination Program in Occupational Health - PCMSO). Results: From the 93 workers evaluated, there was a prevalence of men (58.1%), with a mean age of 42.6 y-o, and 54.8% were included in the age group 35-49 years. Regarding the length of work time in the company, 66.7% have worked for more than 5 years. There was an association between gender and current occupational status (p < 0.005), with predominance of women in household occupation (13 vs. 2) and predominance of unemployed men in job search situation (24 vs. 10) and reintegrated to work by judicial decision (8 vs. 2). There was also a correlation between pain and functional limitation (p < 0.01). There was a positive association of PPRA with the complaint of functional limitation and negative association with pain (p < 0.04). There was also a correlation between the sedentary lifestyle and the presence of PCMSO and PPRA (p < 0.04), and the absence of CAT in the companies (p < 0.001). It was concluded that the appearance or aggravation of osseous and articular shoulder pathologies in workers who have undertaken labor law suits seem to be associated with individual habits or inadequate labor practices. These data can help preventing the occurrence of these lesions by implementing local health promotion policies at work.

Keywords: Work-related accidents, cross-sectional study, shoulder lesions, labor lawsuits.

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Authors: Visuwan D., Phruksaphanrat B

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In this research, computer simulation is used for Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) plant layout analysis. The current layout of this manufacturing plant is a process layout, which is not suitable due to the nature of an EMS that has high-volume and high-variety environment. Moreover, quick response and high flexibility are also needed. Then, cellular manufacturing layout design was determined for the selected group of products. Systematic layout planning (SLP) was used to analyze and design the possible cellular layouts for the factory. The cellular layout was selected based on the main criteria of the plant. Computer simulation was used to analyze and compare the performance of the proposed cellular layout and the current layout. It found that the proposed cellular layout can generate better performances than the current layout. In this research, computer simulation is used for Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) plant layout analysis. The current layout of this manufacturing plant is a process layout, which is not suitable due to the nature of an EMS that has high-volume and high-variety environment. Moreover, quick response and high flexibility are also needed. Then, cellular manufacturing layout design was determined for the selected group of products. Systematic layout planning (SLP) was used to analyze and design the possible cellular layouts for the factory. The cellular layout was selected based on the main criteria of the plant. Computer simulation was used to analyze and compare the performance of the proposed cellular layout and the current layout. It found that the proposed cellular layout can generate better performances than the current layout. 

Keywords: Layout, Electronic Manufacturing Service Plant (EMS), Computer Simulation, Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS).

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Authors: Hubert Klar

Abstract:

High double excitation of two-electron atoms has been investigated using hyperpherical coordinates within a modified adiabatic expansion technique. This modification creates a novel fictitious force leading to a spontaneous exchange symmetry breaking at high double excitation. The Pauli principle must therefore be regarded as approximation valid only at low excitation energy. Threshold electron scattering from high Rydberg states shows an unexpected time reversal symmetry breaking. At threshold for double escape we discover a broad (few eV) Cooper pair.

Keywords: Correlation, resonances, threshold ionization, Cooper pair.

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Authors: Valentin P. Velikov

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Automatic program generation saves time, human resources, and allows receiving syntactically clear and logically correct modules. The 4-th generation programming languages are related to drawing the data and the processes of the subject area, as well as, to obtain a frame of the respective information system. The application can be separated in interface and business logic. That means, for an interactive generation of the needed system to be used an already existing toolkit or to be created a new one.

Keywords: Computer science, graphical user interface, user dialog interface, dialog frames, data modeling, subject area modeling.

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Authors: Radomir Perzina, Jaroslav Ramik

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel. Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method, Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method. Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples of real life decision problems.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision making, pair-wise comparisons, Microsoft Excel, Scenarios.

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Authors: Tan Ping Hua, Yeong Che Fai, Ricky Yap, Eileen Su Lee Ming

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Haptics has been used extensively in many applications especially in human machine interaction and virtual reality systems. Haptic technology allows user to perceive virtual reality as in real world. However, commercially available haptic devices are expensive and may not be suitable for educational purpose. This paper describes the design and development of a low cost haptic knob, with only one degree of freedom, for use in rehabilitation or training hand pronation and supination. End-effectors can be changed to suit different applications or variation in hand sizes and hand orientation.

Keywords: haptic, microcontroller, real time, virtual reality, rehabilitation

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Authors: Corrado Grassi, Achim Schröter, Yves Gloy, Thomas Gries

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Air jet weaving is the most productive, but also the most energy consuming weaving method. Increasing energy costs and environmental impact are constantly a challenge for the manufacturers of weaving machines. Current technological developments concern with low energy costs, low environmental impact, high productivity, and constant product quality. The high degree of energy consumption of the method can be ascribed to the high need of compressed air. An energy efficiency method is applied to the air jet weaving technology. Such method identifies and classifies the main relevant energy consumers and processes from the exergy point of view and it leads to the identification of energy efficiency potentials during the weft insertion process. Starting from the design phase, energy efficiency is considered as the central requirement to be satisfied. The initial phase of the method consists of an analysis of the state of the art of the main weft insertion components in order to point out a prioritization of the high demanding energy components and processes. The identified major components are investigated to reduce the high demand of energy of the weft insertion process. During the interaction of the flow field coming from the relay nozzles within the profiled reed, only a minor part of the stream is really accelerating the weft yarn, hence resulting in large energy inefficiency. Different tools such as FEM analysis, CFD simulation models and experimental analysis are used in order to design a more energy efficient design of the involved components in the filling insertion. A different concept for the metal strip of the profiled reed is developed. The developed metal strip allows a reduction of the machine energy consumption. Based on a parametric and aerodynamic study, the designed reed transmits higher values of the flow power to the filling yarn. The innovative reed fulfills both the requirement of raising energy efficiency and the compliance with the weaving constraints.

Keywords: Air jet weaving, aerodynamic simulation, energy efficiency, experimental measurements, power costs, weft insertion.

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Authors: Mazin Z. Othman, Maan M. Shaker, Mohammed F. Abdullah

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This study introduces a new method for detecting, sorting, and localizing spikes from multiunit EEG recordings. The method combines the wavelet transform, which localizes distinctive spike features, with Super-Paramagnetic Clustering (SPC) algorithm, which allows automatic classification of the data without assumptions such as low variance or Gaussian distributions. Moreover, the method is capable of setting amplitude thresholds for spike detection. The method makes use of several real EEG data sets, and accordingly the spikes are detected, clustered and their times were detected.

Keywords: EEG time localizations, EEG spike detection, superparamagnetic algorithm, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Veronika Solilová, Danuše Nerudová

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The paper examines the interaction between the environmental taxation, size of government spending on environmental protection and greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption. The aim is to analyze the effects of environmental taxation and government spending on environmental protection as an environmental policy instruments on greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption in the EU15. The empirical study is performed using a VAR approach with the application of aggregated data of EU15 over the period 1995 to 2012. The results provide the evidence that the reactions of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption to the shocks of environmental policy instruments are strong, mainly in the short term and decay to zero after about 8 years. Further, the reactions of the environmental policy instruments to the shocks of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption are also strong in the short term, however with the deferred effects. In addition, the results show that government spending on environmental protection together with gross inland energy consumption has stronger effect on greenhouse gas emissions than environmental taxes in EU15 over the examined period.

Keywords: VAR analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental taxation, government spending.

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Authors: Chanchal Biswas, Anrin Bhattacharyya, Gopes Chandra Das, Mahua Ghosh Chaudhuri, Rajib Dey

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Boiler coals with low fixed carbon and higher ash content have always challenged the metallurgists to develop a suitable method for their utilization. In the present study, an attempt is made to establish an energy effective method for the reduction of iron ore fines in the form of nuggets by using ‘Syngas’. By devolatisation (expulsion of volatile matter by applying heat) of boiler coal, gaseous product (enriched with reducing agents like CO, CO2, H2, and CH4 gases) is generated. Iron ore nuggets are reduced by this syngas. For that reason, there is no direct contact between iron ore nuggets and coal ash. It helps to control the minimization of the sulphur intake of the reduced nuggets. A laboratory scale devolatisation furnace designed with reduction facility is evaluated after in-depth studies and exhaustive experimentations including thermo-gravimetric (TG-DTA) analysis to find out the volatile fraction present in boiler grade coal, gas chromatography (GC) to find out syngas composition in different temperature and furnace temperature gradient measurements to minimize the furnace cost by applying one heating coil. The nuggets are reduced in the devolatisation furnace at three different temperatures and three different times. The pre-reduced nuggets are subjected to analytical weight loss calculations to evaluate the extent of reduction. The phase and surface morphology analysis of pre-reduced samples are characterized using X-ray diffractometry (XRD), energy dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDX), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), carbon sulphur analyzer and chemical analysis method. Degree of metallization of the reduced nuggets is 78.9% by using boiler grade coal. The pre-reduced nuggets with lesser sulphur content could be used in the blast furnace as raw materials or coolant which would reduce the high quality of coke rate of the furnace due to its pre-reduced character. These can be used in Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) as coolant also.

Keywords: Alternative ironmaking, coal devolatisation, extent of reduction, nugget making, syngas based DRI, solid state reduction.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: Shiping Zhou, Minggen Cui

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This paper investigates the inverse problem of determining the unknown time-dependent leading coefficient in the parabolic equation using the usual conditions of the direct problem and an additional condition. An algorithm is developed for solving numerically the inverse problem using the technique of space decomposition in a reproducing kernel space. The leading coefficients can be solved by a lower triangular linear system. Numerical experiments are presented to show the efficiency of the proposed methods.

Keywords: parabolic equations, coefficient inverse problem, reproducing kernel.

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Authors: I. Oloyede

Abstract:

The COVID-19 dataset is obtained by extracting weather, longitude, latitude, ISO3666, cases and death of coronavirus patients across the globe. The data were extracted for a period of eight day choosing uniform time within the specified period. Then mapping of cases and deaths with reverence to continents were obtained. Bayesian Geostastical modelling was carried out on the dataset. The study found out that countries in the tropical region suffered less deaths/attacks compared to countries in the temperate region, this is due to high temperature in the tropical region.

Keywords: COVID-19, Bayesian, geostastical modelling, prior, posterior.

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Authors: Pratch Kittipongpattana, Thongchai Fongsamootr

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This research aimed to study the influences of a soot blowing operation and geometrical variables to the stress characteristic of water wall tubes located in soot blowing areas which caused the boilers of Mae Moh power plant to lose their generation hour. The research method is divided into 2 parts (a) measuring the strain on water wall tubes by using 3-element rosette strain gages orientation during a full capacity plant operation and in periods of soot blowing operations (b) creating a finite element model in order to calculate stresses on tubes and validating the model by using experimental data in a steady state plant operation. Then, the geometrical variables in the model were changed to study stresses on the tubes. The results revealed that the stress was not affected by the soot blowing process and the finite element model gave the results 1.24% errors from the experiment. The geometrical variables influenced the stress, with the most optimum tubes design in this research reduced the average stress from the present design 31.28%.

Keywords: Boiler water wall tube, Finite element, Stress analysis, Strain gage rosette.

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Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

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The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO₂ in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO₂, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: Electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon.

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Authors: Fahim Kahlouche, Alaoua Bouaicha, Sihem Chaîbeddra, Sid-Ali Rafa, Abdelhamid Benouali

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A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Keywords: Slope, shallow foundation, numeric method, FLAC 2D.

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Authors: M. Haj Seyed Hadi, M. Darzi, E. Sharifi Ashoorabadi

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Medicinal plants are most suitable crops for ecological production systems because of their role in human health and the aim of sustainable agriculture to improve ecosystem efficiency and its products quality. Calculations include energy output (contents of energy in seed) and energy inputs (consumption of fertilizers, pesticides, labor, machines, fuel and electricity). The ratio of output of the production to inputs is called the energy outputs / inputs ratio or energy efficiency. One way to quantify essential parts of agricultural development is the energy flow method. The output / input energy ratio is proposed as the most comprehensive single factor in pursuing the objective of sustainability. Sylibum marianum L. is one of the most important medicinal plants in Iran and has effective role on health of growing population in Iran. The objective of this investigation was to find out energy efficiency in conventional and low input production system of Milk thistle. This investigation was carried out in the spring of 2005 – 2007 in the Research Station of Rangelands in Hamand - Damavand region of IRAN. This experiment was done in split-split plot based on randomized complete block design with 3 replications. Treatments were 2 production systems (Conventional and Low input system) in the main plots, 3 planting time (25 of March, 4 and 14 of April) in the sub plots and 2 seed types (Improved and Native of Khoozestan) in the sub-sub plots. Results showed that in conventional production system energy efficiency, because of higher inputs and less seed yield, was less than low input production system. Seed yield was 1199.5 and 1888 kg/ha in conventional and low input systems, respectively. Total energy inputs and out puts for conventional system was 10068544.5 and 7060515.9 kcal. These amounts for low input system were 9533885.6 and 11113191.8 kcal. Results showed that energy efficiency for seed production in conventional and low input system was 0.7 and 1.16, respectively. So, milk thistle seed production in low input system has 39.6 percent higher energy efficiency than conventional production system. Also, higher energy efficiency were found in sooner planting time (25 of March) and native seed of Khoozestan.

Keywords: energy efficiency, milk thistle, production system

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Authors: Ahmed Kiani

Abstract:

The United Arab Emirates is clearly facing a multitude of challenges in curbing its greenhouse gas emissions to meet its pre-allotted framework of Kyoto protocol and COP21 targets due to its hunger for modernization, industrialization, infrastructure growth, soaring population and oil and gas activity. In this work, we focus on the bonafide zero emission electric vehicles market penetration in the country’s transport industry for emission reduction. We study the global electric vehicle market trends, the complementary battery technologies and the trends by manufacturers, emission standards across borders and prioritized advancements which will ultimately dictate the terms of future conditions for the United Arab Emirate transport industry. Based on our findings and analysis at every stage of current viability and state-of-transport-affairs, we postulate policy recommendations to local governmental entities from a supply and demand perspective covering aspects of technology, infrastructure requirements, change in power dynamics, end user incentives program, market regulators behavior and communications amongst key stakeholders. 

Keywords: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emission reductions, market analysis, policy recommendations.

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Authors: J. Maděra, M. Jerman, R. Černý

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Temperature, relative humidity and overhygroscopic moisture fields in a sandstone wall provided with interior thermal insulation were calculated in order to assess the hygric performance of the retrofitted wall. Computational simulations showed that during the time period of 10 years which was subject of investigation no overhygroscopic moisture appeared in the analyzed building envelope so that it performed in a satisfactory way from the hygric point of view.

Keywords: Sandstone wall, interior thermal insulation, moisture, computational modeling.

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Authors: Julian Becker, Wiebke Hartmann, Sebastian Bertsch, Johannes Nywlt, Matthias Schmidt

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In order to ensure a high service level industrial enterprises have to maintain safety-stock that directly influences the economic efficiency at the same time. This paper analyses established mathematical methods to calculate safety-stock. Therefore, the performance measured in stock and service level is appraised and the limits of several methods are depicted. Afterwards, a new dynamic approach is presented to gain an extensive method to calculate safety-stock that also takes the knowledge of future volatility into account.

Keywords: Inventory dimensioning, material requirement planning, safety-stock calculation.

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Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: Forest risk, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann

Abstract:

In this article, a formal specification and verification of the Rabin public-key scheme in a formal proof system is presented. The idea is to use the two views of cryptographic verification: the computational approach relying on the vocabulary of probability theory and complexity theory and the formal approach based on ideas and techniques from logic and programming languages. A major objective of this article is the presentation of the first computer-proved implementation of the Rabin public-key scheme in Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we explicate a (computer-proven) formalization of correctness as well as a computer verification of security properties using a straight-forward computation model in Isabelle/HOL. The analysis uses a given database to prove formal properties of our implemented functions with computer support. The main task in designing a practical formalization of correctness as well as efficient computer proofs of security properties is to cope with the complexity of cryptographic proving. We reduce this complexity by exploring a light-weight formalization that enables both appropriate formal definitions as well as efficient formal proofs. Consequently, we get reliable proofs with a minimal error rate augmenting the used database, what provides a formal basis for more computer proof constructions in this area.

Keywords: public-key encryption, Rabin public-key scheme, formalproof system, higher-order logic, formal verification.

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Authors: M. M. Rahman, Thamir K. Ibrahim, M. Y. Taib, M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Regenerative gas turbine engine cycle is presented that yields higher cycle efficiencies than simple cycle operating under the same conditions. The power output, efficiency and specific fuel consumption are simulated with respect to operating conditions. The analytical formulae about the relation to determine the thermal efficiency are derived taking into account the effected operation conditions (ambient temperature, compression ratio, regenerator effectiveness, compressor efficiency, turbine efficiency and turbine inlet temperature). Model calculations for a wide range of parameters are presented, as are comparisons with simple gas turbine cycle. The power output and thermal efficiency are found to be increasing with the regenerative effectiveness, and the compressor and turbine efficiencies. The efficiency increased with increase the compression ratio to 5, then efficiency decreased with increased compression ratio, but in simple cycle the thermal efficiency always increase with increased in compression ratio. The increased in ambient temperature caused decreased thermal efficiency, but the increased in turbine inlet temperature increase thermal efficiency.

Keywords: Gas turbine, power plant, thermal analysis, regeneration

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Authors: Amruta Khairnar, Joy Sen

Abstract:

Disparity in India has been persisting since independence causing many socioeconomic problems and its removal has become the most prime objective of the planned development in India. Hence the paper attempts to study the disparity at State and Regional level and gives inclusive planning guidelines to achieve balanced regional development. At State level, the relative socioeconomic backwardness of Vidarbha Region based on Interregional analysis using selected indicators like Foreign Direct Investment, Human Development Index, Per Capita District Domestic Product has been assessed and broad guidelines have been proposed. In the later part at Regional level, the relative backwardness of districts based on Intraregional analysis using socioeconomic indicators has been assessed within Nagpur sub region and factors responsible for backwardness & disparity have been indicated. The policy guidelines for Identified sub region have been proposed based on the most significant factor and their extent of relationship explaining backwardness Nagpur sub region.

Keywords: Balanced Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, Human Development Index, Per Capita District Domestic Product, Regional Disparity, Socioeconomic Inequality, Vidarbha Region.

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Authors: W. Benaatou, A. Latif

Abstract:

In this document we studied more in detail the Performances of the vertical handover in the networks WLAN, WiMAX, UMTS before studying of it the Procedure of Handoff Vertical, the whole buckled by simulations putting forward the performances of the handover in the heterogeneous networks. The goal of Vertical Handover is to carry out several accesses in real-time in the heterogeneous networks. This makes it possible a user to use several networks (such as WLAN UMTS andWiMAX) in parallel, and the system to commutate automatically at another basic station, without disconnecting itself, as if there were no cut and with little loss of data as possible.

Keywords: Vertical handoff, WLAN, UMTS, WIMAX, Heterogeneous.

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