Search results for: Web Usage Mining.

Authors: Hrudaya Ku. Tripathy, B. K. Tripathy, Pradip K. Das

Abstract:

Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) has evolved into an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering (or extracting) interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real-world databases. Rough Set Theory (RST) is a mathematical formalism for representing uncertainty that can be considered an extension of the classical set theory. It has been used in many different research areas, including those related to inductive machine learning and reduction of knowledge in knowledge-based systems. One important concept related to RST is that of a rough relation. In this paper we presented the current status of research on applying rough set theory to KDD, which will be helpful for handle the characteristics of real-world databases. The main aim is to show how rough set and rough set analysis can be effectively used to extract knowledge from large databases.

Keywords: Data mining, Data tables, Knowledge discovery in database (KDD), Rough sets.

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Authors: Zulkeflee Kusin, Mohamad Shanudin Zakaria

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Hierarchical Mobile IPv6 (HMIPv6) was designed to support IP micro-mobility management in the Next Generation Networks (NGN) framework. The main design behind this protocol is the usage of Mobility Anchor Point (MAP) located at any level router of network to support hierarchical mobility management. However, the distance MAP selection in HMIPv6 causes MAP overloaded and increase frequent binding update as the network grows. Therefore, to address the issue in designing MAP selection scheme, we propose a dynamic load control mechanism integrates with a speed detection mechanism (DMS-DLC). From the experimental results we obtain that the proposed scheme gives better distribution in MAP load and increase handover speed.

Keywords: Dynamic load control, HMIPv6, Mobility AnchorPoint, MAP selection scheme

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Authors: A. Mihoc, K. Cater

Abstract:

On the bridge of a ship the officers are looking for visual aids to guide navigation in order to reconcile the outside world with the position communicated by the digital navigation system. Aids to navigation include: Lighthouses, lightships, sector lights, beacons, buoys, and others. They are designed to help navigators calculate their position, establish their course or avoid dangers. In poor visibility and dense traffic areas, it can be very difficult to identify these critical aids to guide navigation. The paper presents the usage of Augmented Reality (AR) as a means to present digital information about these aids to support navigation. To date, nautical navigation related mobile AR applications have been limited to the leisure industry. If proved viable, this prototype can facilitate the creation of other similar applications that could help commercial officers with navigation. While adopting a user centered design approach, the team has developed the prototype based on insights from initial research carried on board of several ships. The prototype, built on Nexus 9 tablet and Wikitude, features a head-up display of the navigational aids (lights) in the area, presented in AR and a bird’s eye view mode presented on a simplified map. The application employs the aids to navigation data managed by Hydrographic Offices and the tablet’s sensors: GPS, gyroscope, accelerometer, compass and camera. Sea trials on board of a Navy and a commercial ship revealed the end-users’ interest in using the application and further possibility of other data to be presented in AR. The application calculates the GPS position of the ship, the bearing and distance to the navigational aids; all within a high level of accuracy. However, during testing several issues were highlighted which need to be resolved as the prototype is developed further. The prototype stretched the capabilities of Wikitude, loading over 500 objects during tests in a major port. This overloaded the display and required over 45 seconds to load the data. Therefore, extra filters for the navigational aids are being considered in order to declutter the screen. At night, the camera is not powerful enough to distinguish all the lights in the area. Also, magnetic interference with the bridge of the ship generated a continuous compass error of the AR display that varied between 5 and 12 degrees. The deviation of the compass was consistent over the whole testing durations so the team is now looking at the possibility of allowing users to manually calibrate the compass. It is expected that for the usage of AR in professional maritime contexts, further development of existing AR tools and hardware is needed. Designers will also need to implement a user-centered design approach in order to create better interfaces and display technologies for enhanced solutions to aid navigation.

Keywords: Compass error, GPS, maritime navigation, mobile augmented reality.

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Authors: Sarah Majid Ansari, Serjosha Wulf, Matthias Görke

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In times of global warming and the increasing shortage of resources, sustainable production is becoming more and more inevitable. Companies cannot only heighten their competitiveness but also contribute positively to environmental protection through efficient energy and resource consumption. Regarding this, technical solutions are often preferred during production, although organizational and process-related approaches also offer great potential. This project focuses on reducing resource usage, with a special emphasis on the human factor. It is the aspiration to develop a methodology that systematically implements and embeds suitable and individual measures and methods regarding resource efficiency throughout the entire production. The measures and methods established help employees handle resources and energy more sensitively. With this in mind, this paper also deals with the difficulties that can occur during the sensitization of employees and the implementation of these measures and methods. In addition, recommendations are given on how to avoid such difficulties.

Keywords: Implementation, human factor, production plant, resource efficiency.

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Authors: Anton Stadler, Thorsten Ike

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a video based smoke detection algorithm based on TVL1 optical flow estimation. The main part of the algorithm is an accumulating system for motion angles and upward motion speed of the flow field. We optimized the usage of TVL1 flow estimation for the detection of smoke with very low smoke density. Therefore, we use adapted flow parameters and estimate the flow field on difference images. We show in theory and in evaluation that this improves the performance of smoke detection significantly. We evaluate the smoke algorithm using videos with different smoke densities and different backgrounds. We show that smoke detection is very reliable in varying scenarios. Further we verify that our algorithm is very robust towards crowded scenes disturbance videos.

Keywords: Low density, optical flow, upward smoke motion, video based smoke detection.

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Authors: Bruno Trstenjak, Dzenana Donko

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Data mining and classification of objects is the process of data analysis, using various machine learning techniques, which is used today in various fields of research. This paper presents a concept of hybrid classification model improved with the expert knowledge. The hybrid model in its algorithm has integrated several machine learning techniques (Information Gain, K-means, and Case-Based Reasoning) and the expert’s knowledge into one. The knowledge of experts is used to determine the importance of features. The paper presents the model algorithm and the results of the case study in which the emphasis was put on achieving the maximum classification accuracy without reducing the number of features.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, classification, expert's knowledge, hybrid model.

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Authors: Sumith Matharage, Damminda Alahakoon

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Textual data plays an important role in the modern world. The possibilities of applying data mining techniques to uncover hidden information present in large volumes of text collections is immense. The Growing Self Organizing Map (GSOM) is a highly successful member of the Self Organising Map family and has been used as a clustering and visualisation tool across wide range of disciplines to discover hidden patterns present in the data. A comprehensive analysis of the GSOM’s capabilities as a text clustering and visualisation tool has so far not been published. These functionalities, namely map visualisation capabilities, automatic cluster identification and hierarchical clustering capabilities are presented in this paper and are further demonstrated with experiments on a benchmark text corpus.

Keywords: Text Clustering, Growing Self Organizing Map, Automatic Cluster Identification, Hierarchical Clustering.

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Authors: Heejin Yun, Juanjuan Zang

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the text terms posted on an online community of people from the same hometown and to understand the topic and trend of nostalgia composed online. For this purpose, this study collected 144 writings which the natives of Yeongjong Island, Incheon, South-Korea have posted on an online community. And it analyzed association relations. As a result, online community texts means that just defining nostalgia as ‘a mind longing for hometown’ is not an enough explanation. Second, texts composed online have abstractness rather than persons’ individual stories. This study figured out the relationship that had the most critical and closest mutual association among the terms that constituted nostalgia through literature research and association rule concerning nostalgia. The result of this study has a characteristic that it summed up the core terms and emotions related to nostalgia.

Keywords: Nostalgia, cultural memory, data mining, online community.

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Authors: D. Koutny, D. Palousek, T. Koutecky, A. Zatocilova, J. Rosicky, M. Janda

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The motivation of this work was to find a suitable 3D scanner for human body parts digitalization in the field of prosthetics and orthotics. The main project objective is to compare the three hand-held portable scanners (two optical and one laser) and two optical tripod scanners. The comparison was made with respect of scanning detail, simplicity of operation and ability to scan directly on the human body. Testing was carried out on a plaster cast of the upper limb and directly on a few volunteers. The objective monitored parameters were time of digitizing and post-processing of 3D data and resulting visual data quality. Subjectively, it was considered level of usage and handling of the scanner. The new tripod was developed to improve the face scanning conditions. The results provide an overview of the suitability of different types of scanners.

Keywords: 3D digitization, prosthetics and orthotics, human body digitization.

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Authors: Buntara Sthenly Gan, Naohiro Kawada

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A simple and easy algorithm is presented for a fast calculation of kernel functions which required in fluid simulations using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) method. Present proposed algorithm improves the Linked-list algorithm and adopts the Pair-Wise Interaction technique, which are widely used for evaluating kernel functions in fluid simulations using the SPH method. The algorithm is easy to be implemented without any complexities in programming. Some benchmark examples are used to show the simulation time saved by using the proposed algorithm. Parametric studies on the number of divisions for sub-domains, smoothing length and total amount of particles are conducted to show the effectiveness of the present technique. A compact formulation is proposed for practical usage.

Keywords: Technique, fluid simulation, smoothing particle hydrodynamic (SPH), particle interaction.

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Authors: Michael Netzer, Michael Seger, Mahesh Visvanathan, Bernhard Pfeifer, Gerald H. Lushington, Christian Baumgartner

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Lung cancer accounts for the most cancer related deaths for men as well as for women. The identification of cancer associated genes and the related pathways are essential to provide an important possibility in the prevention of many types of cancer. In this work two filter approaches, namely the information gain and the biomarker identifier (BMI) are used for the identification of different types of small-cell and non-small-cell lung cancer. A new method to determine the BMI thresholds is proposed to prioritize genes (i.e., primary, secondary and tertiary) using a k-means clustering approach. Sets of key genes were identified that can be found in several pathways. It turned out that the modified BMI is well suited for microarray data and therefore BMI is proposed as a powerful tool for the search for new and so far undiscovered genes related to cancer.

Keywords: lung cancer, micro arrays, data mining, feature selection.

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Authors: I. Sarras, G. Gerakios, A. Diamantis, A. I. Dounis, G. P. Syrcos

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Global Positioning System (GPS) technology is widely used today in the areas of geodesy and topography as well as in aeronautics mainly for military purposes. Due to the military usage of GPS, full access and use of this technology is being denied to the civilian user who must then work with a less accurate version. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the receiver coordinates ( X, Y, Z ) and its clock bias ( δtr ) of a fixed point based on pseudorange measurements of a single GPS receiver. Utilizing the instantaneous coordinates of just 4 satellites and their clock offsets, by taking into account the atmospheric delays, we are able to derive a set of pseudorange equations. The estimation of the four unknowns ( X, Y, Z , δtr ) is achieved by introducing an extended Kalman filter that processes, off-line, all the data collected from the receiver. Higher performance of position accuracy is attained by appropriate tuning of the filter noise parameters and by including other forms of biases.

Keywords: Extended Kalman filter, GPS, Pseudorange

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Authors: Abbas Hani

Abstract:

The concentrations of As, Hg, Co, Cr and Cd were tested for each soil sample, and their spatial patterns were analyzed by the semivariogram approach of geostatistics and geographical information system technology. Multivariate statistic approaches (principal component analysis and cluster analysis) were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that primary inputs of As, Hg and Cd were due to anthropogenic while, Co, and Cr were associated with pedogenic factors. Ordinary kriging was carried out to map the spatial patters of heavy metals. The high pollution sources evaluated was related with usage of urban and industrial wastewater. The results of this study helpful for risk assessment of environmental pollution for decision making for industrial adjustment and remedy soil pollution.

Keywords: Geographic Information system, Geostatistics, Kaveh, Multivariate Statistical Analysis.

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Authors: Fu E. Tang

Abstract:

The increase in energy demand has raised concerns over adverse impacts on the environment from energy generation. It is important to understand the status of energy consumption for institutions such as Curtin Sarawak to ensure the sustainability of energy usage, and also to reduce its costs. In this study, a preliminary audit framework was developed and was conducted around the Malaysian campus to obtain information such as the number and specifications of electrical appliances, built-up area and ambient temperature to understand the relationship of these factors with energy consumption. It was found that the number and types of electrical appliances, population and activities in the campus impacted the energy consumption of Curtin Sarawak directly. However, the built-up area and ambient temperature showed no clear correlation with energy consumption. An investigation of the diurnal and seasonal energy consumption of the campus was also carried out. From the data, recommendations were made to improve the energy efficiency of the campus.

Keywords: Energy audit, energy consumption, energy efficiency

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Authors: K. Matušínská, Z. Bednarčík, M. Klepek

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This paper examines international marketing in business practice of Czech exporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with regard to the strategic perspectives. Research was focused on Czech exporting SMEs from Moravian- Silesia region and their behavior on international markets. For purpose of collecting data, a questionnaire was given to 262 SMEs involved in international business. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, mean, percentage, and chi-square test. Data were analyzed by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software. The research analysis disclosed that there is certain space for improvement in strategic marketing especially in a marketing research, perception of cultural and social differences, product adaptation and usage of marketing communication tools.

Keywords: International Marketing, Marketing Mix, Marketing Research, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), Strategic Marketing.

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Authors: D. Yilmaz, M.R. Usal

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Nozzle is the main part of various spinning systems such as air-jet and Murata air vortex systems. Recently, many researchers worked on the usage of the nozzle on different spinning systems such as conventional ring and compact spinning systems. In these applications, primary purpose is to improve the yarn quality. In present study, it was produced the yarns with two different nozzle types and determined the changes in yarn properties. In order to explain the effect of the nozzle, airflow structure in the nozzle was modelled and airflow variables were determined. In numerical simulation, ANSYS 12.1 package program and Fluid Flow (CFX) analysis method was used. As distinct from the literature, Shear Stress Turbulent (SST) model is preferred. And also air pressure at the nozzle inlet was measured by electronic mass flow meter and these values were used for the simulation of the airflow. At last, the yarn was modelled and the area from where the yarn is passing was included to the numerical analysis.

Keywords: Nozzle, compressed air, swirling airflow, yarn properties.

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Authors: Nálevka Petr

Abstract:

Many contemporary telemedical applications rely on regular consultations over the phone or video conferencing which consumes valuable resources such as the time of the doctors. Some applications or treatments allow automated diagnostics on the patient side which only notifies the doctors in case a significant worsening of patient’s condition is measured. Such programs can save valuable resources but an important implementation issue is how to ensure effective and cheap diagnostics on the patient side. First, specific diagnostic devices on patient side are expensive and second, they need to be user-˜friendly to encourage patient’s cooperation and reduce errors in usage which may cause noise in diagnostic data. This article proposes the use of modern smartphones and various build-in or attachable sensors as universal diagnostic devices applicable in a wider range of telemedical programs and demonstrates their application on a case-study – a program for schizophrenic relapse prevention.

Keywords: Smartphones, Actigraphy, Telemedicine, In-home Diagnostics

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Authors: Shiva Subhedar, Abhishek Jain, Shivin Mittal

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Icons are not merely decorative elements in enterprise applications but very often used because of their many advantages such as compactness, visual appeal, etc. Despite these potential advantages, icons often cause usability problems when they are designed without consideration for their many potential downsides. The aim of the current study was to examine the effect of articulatory distance – the distance between the physical appearance of an interface element and what it actually means. In other words, will the subject find the association of the function and its appearance on the interface natural or is the icon difficult for them to associate with its function. We have calculated response time and quality of identification by varying icon concreteness, the context of usage and subject experience in the enterprise context. The subjects were asked to associate icons (prepared for study purpose) with given function options in context and out of context mode. Response time and their selection were recorded for analysis.

Keywords: Icons, icon concreteness, icon recognition, HCI.

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Authors: Svitov David, Alyamkin Sergey

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The usage of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in conjunction with the margin-based softmax approach demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance for the face recognition problem. Recently, lightweight neural network models trained with the margin-based softmax have been introduced for the face identification task for edge devices. In this paper, we propose a distillation method for lightweight neural network architectures that outperforms other known methods for the face recognition task on LFW, AgeDB-30 and Megaface datasets. The idea of the proposed method is to use class centers from the teacher network for the student network. Then the student network is trained to get the same angles between the class centers and face embeddings predicted by the teacher network.

Keywords: ArcFace, distillation, face recognition, margin-based softmax.

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Authors: Jianfeng Li, Feng Jin, Xiaoyu Yang

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This paper applies fuzzy clustering algorithm in classifying real estate companies in China according to some general financial indexes, such as income per share, share accumulation fund, net profit margins, weighted net assets yield and shareholders' equity. By constructing and normalizing initial partition matrix, getting fuzzy similar matrix with Minkowski metric and gaining the transitive closure, the dynamic fuzzy clustering analysis for real estate companies is shown clearly that different clustered result change gradually with the threshold reducing, and then, it-s shown there is the similar relationship with the prices of those companies in stock market. In this way, it-s great valuable in contrasting the real estate companies- financial condition in order to grasp some good chances of investment, and so on.

Keywords: Fuzzy clustering algorithm, data mining, real estate company, financial analysis.

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Authors: Orod Zarrin, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Rehabilitation of dam components such as foundations, buttresses, spillways and overtopping protection require a wide range of construction and design methodologies. Geotechnical Engineering considerations play an important role in the design and construction of foundations of new dams. Much investigation is required to assess and evaluate the existing dams. The application of roller compacting concrete (RCC) has been accepted as a new method for constructing new dams or rehabilitating old ones. In the past 40 years there have been so many changes in the usage of RCC and now it is one of most satisfactory solutions of water and hydropower resource throughout the world. The considerations of rehabilitation and construction of dams might differ due to upstream reservoir and its influence on penetrating and dewatering of downstream, operations requirements and plant layout. One of the advantages of RCC is its rapid placement which allows the dam to be operated quickly. Unlike ordinary concrete it is a drier mix, and stiffs enough for compacting by vibratory rollers. This paper evaluates some different aspects of RCC and focuses on its preparation progress.

Keywords: Spillway, Vibrating Consistency, Fly Ash, Water Tightness, Foundation.

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Authors: Hae-Won Seo, Yong-Gu Lee

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Recent progress in the next generation of automobile technology is geared towards incorporating information technology into cars. Collectively called smart cars are bringing intelligence to cars that provides comfort, convenience and safety. A branch of smart cars is connected-car system. The key concept in connected-cars is the sharing of driving information among cars through decentralized manner enabling collective intelligence. This paper proposes a foundation of the information model that is necessary to define the driving information for smart-cars. Road conditions are modeled through a unique data structure that unambiguously represent the time variant traffics in the streets. Additionally, the modeled data structure is exemplified in a navigational scenario and usage using UML. Optimal driving route searching is also discussed using the proposed data structure in a dynamically changing road conditions.

Keywords: Connected-car, data modeling, route planning, navigation system.

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Authors: J. Palecek, R. Hajkova, A. Oulehlova, H. Malachova

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Increase of emergency incidents and crisis situations requires proactive crisis management of authorities and for its solution. Application Business Continuity Management helps the crisis management authorities to quickly and responsibly respond to threats. It also helps effectively and efficiently planning powers and resources. The main goal of this article is describing Military Continuity Management System (MCMS) based on the principles of Business Continuity Management System (BCMS) for dealing with floods in the territory of the selected municipalities. There are explained steps of loading, running and evaluating activities in the software application MCMS. Software MCMS provides complete control over the tasks, contribute a comprehensive and responsible approach solutions to solution floods in the municipality.

Keywords: Business Continuity Management, Floods Plan, Flood Activity, Level of Flood Activity.

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Authors: Muñoz-Sanchez, Victor Manuel, Perez-Flores, Antonio Manuel

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The main objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between models of state organization and the various types of collective identity expressed by the Spanish. The question of nationalism and identity ascription in Spain has always been a topic of special importance due to the presence in that country of territories where the population emits very different opinions of nationalist sentiment than the rest of Spain. The current situation of sovereignty challenge of Catalonia to the central government exemplifies the importance of the subject matter. In order to analyze this process of interrelation, we use a secondary data mining by applying the multiple correspondence analysis technique (MCA). As a main result a typology of four types of expression of collective identity based on models of State organization are shown, which are connected with the party position on this issue.

Keywords: Models of organization of the state, nationalism, collective identity, Spain, political parties.

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Authors: Nuran Bahar, Mehmet A. Akcayol

Abstract:

In the aviation industry, many faults may occur frequently during the maintenance processes and assembly operations of complex structured aircrafts because of their high dependencies of components. These faults affect the quality of aircraft parts or developed modules adversely. Technical employee requires long time and high labor force while checking the correctness of each component. In addition, the person must be trained regularly because of the ever-growing and changing technology. Generally, the cost of this training is very high. Augmented Reality (AR) technology reduces the cost of training radically and improves the effectiveness of the training. In this study, the usage of AR technology in the aviation industry has been investigated and the effectiveness of AR with heads-up display glasses has been examined. An application has been developed for comparison of production process with AR and manual one.

Keywords: Aerospace, assembly quality, augmented reality, heads-up display.

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Authors: Abdulrahim Shamayleh, John Fowler, Muhong Zhang

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Operating rooms are important assets for hospitals as they generate the largest revenue and, at the same time, produce the largest cost for hospitals. The model presented in this paper helps make capacity planning decisions on the combination of open operating rooms (ORs) and estimated overtime to satisfy the allocated OR time to each specialty. The model combines both decisions on determining the amount of OR time to open and to allocate to different surgical specialties. The decisions made are based on OR costs, overutilization and underutilization costs, and contribution margins from allocating OR time. The results show the importance of having a good estimate of specialty usage of OR time to determine the amount of needed capacity and highlighted the tradeoff that the OR manager faces between opening more ORs versus extending the working time of the ORs already in use.

Keywords: capacity planning, contribution margins, operating room, overutilization

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Authors: M. M. Isa, R. Abd-Rahman, H. H. Goh

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A compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) is a wellknown non-imaging concentrator that will concentrate the solar radiation onto receiver (PV cell). One of disadvantage of CPC is has tall and narrow height compared to its diameter entry aperture area. Therefore, for economic reason, a truncation had been done by removed from the top of the full height CPC. This also will lead to the decreases of concentration ratio but it will be negligible. In this paper, the flux distribution of untruncated and truncated 2-D hollow compound parabolic trough concentrator (hCPTC) design is presented. The untruncated design has initial height H=193.4mm with concentration ratio C_(2-D)=4. This paper presents the optical simulation of compound parabolic trough concentrator using raytracing software TracePro. Results showed that, after the truncation, the height of CPC reduced 45% from initial height with the geometrical concentration ratio only decrease 10%. Thus, the cost of reflector and material dielectric usage can be saved especially at manufacturing site.

Keywords: Compound parabolic trough concentrator, optical modelling, ray-tracing analysis.

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Authors: L. N. A. C. Jayawardena, Ales Gregar

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Emotional Intelligence (EI) has been identified as an important factor for corporate success. However, there are few empirical findings on the impact of Strategic EI per se. The ooverall objective of the study was to empirically examine the relationship between the Strategic EI and Transformational Leadership style of managers. Sixty four managers were selected from the banking industry in Czech Republic. Genos EI Inventory, and the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire – Form 5X-Short were employed as the major research instruments of the study. Descriptive and inferential analyses of survey data were conducted using SPSS software. Variations were observed among the components of Strategic EI between males, and females. Study concludes positive a relationship between Strategic EI of Czech managers and their transformational leadership style. Improving awareness and usage of EI, will contribute to facilitate career success through enhanced levels of transformational leadership of managers.

Keywords: Strategic Emotional Intelligence, Transformational leadership, Socio-demographic factors.

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Authors: Kanda Runapongsa Saikaew, Chaluemwut Noyunsan

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Nowadays social media information, such as news, links, images, or VDOs, is shared extensively. However, the effectiveness of disseminating information through social media lacks in quality: less fact checking, more biases, and several rumors. Many researchers have investigated about credibility on Twitter, but there is no the research report about credibility information on Facebook. This paper proposes features for measuring credibility on Facebook information. We developed the system for credibility on Facebook. First, we have developed FB credibility evaluator for measuring credibility of each post by manual human’s labelling. We then collected the training data for creating a model using Support Vector Machine (SVM). Secondly, we developed a chrome extension of FB credibility for Facebook users to evaluate the credibility of each post. Based on the usage analysis of our FB credibility chrome extension, about 81% of users’ responses agree with suggested credibility automatically computed by the proposed system.

Keywords: Facebook, social media, credibility measurement.

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Authors: Karin Kandananond

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The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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