Search results for: Uncertainty factors
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2909

Search results for: Uncertainty factors

2279 Perturbation in the Fractional Fourier Span due to Erroneous Transform Order and Window Function

Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, Jaydev Sharma

Abstract:

Fractional Fourier Transform is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform. The Fractional Fourier span in general depends on the amplitude and phase functions of the signal and varies with the transform order. However, with the development of the Fractional Fourier filter banks, it is advantageous in some cases to have different transform orders for different filter banks to achieve better decorrelation of the windowed and overlapped time signal. We present an expression that is useful for finding the perturbation in the Fractional Fourier span due to the erroneous transform order and the possible variation in the window shape and length. The expression is based on the dependency of the time-Fractional Fourier span Uncertainty on the amplitude and phase function of the signal. We also show with the help of the developed expression that the perturbation of span has a varying degree of sensitivity for varying degree of transform order and the window coefficients.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, Perturbation, Fractional Fourier span, amplitude, phase, transform order, filterbanks.

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2278 Identification of Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines Temperature Condition

Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

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2277 Identification of Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine's Temperature Condition

Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

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2276 Predictive Factors of Exercise Behaviors of Junior High School Students in Chonburi Province

Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

Abstract:

Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: Predictive factors, exercise behaviors, junior high school.

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2275 Quantifying Key Factors Affecting Leagile Manufacturing System

Authors: Naveen Virmani, Rajeev Saha, Rajeshwar Sahai

Abstract:

In today’s market, striving hard has become necessary for the industries to survive due to the intense competition and globalization. In earlier days, there were few sellers and limited numbers of buyers, so customers were having fewer options to buy the product. But today, the market is highly competitive and volatile. Industries are focusing on robotics, advance manufacturing methods like AJM (Abrasive Jet Machining), EDM (Electric Discharge Machining), ECM (Electrochemical Machining) etc., CAD/CAM, CAE to make quality products and market them in shortest possible time. Leagile manufacturing system is ensuring best available solution at minimum cost to meet the market demand. This paper tries to assimilate the concept of Leagile manufacturing system in today’s scenario and evaluating key factors affecting Leagile manufacturing using digraph technique.

Keywords: Agile manufacturing, digraph, lean manufacturing, leagile manufacturing.

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2274 Quantitative Determination of Trace Elements in Some Oriental Herb Products

Authors: Nguyen Thi Kim Dzung, Pham Ngoc Khai, Rainer Ludwig

Abstract:

The quantitative determination of several trace elements (Cr, As, Se, Cd, Hg, Pb) existing as inorganic impurities in some oriental herb-products such as Lingzhi Mushroom capsules, Philamin powder, etc using ICP-MS has been studied. Various instrumental parameters such as power, gas flow rate, sample depth, as well as the concentration of nitric acid and thick background due to high concentration of possible interferences on the determination of these above-mentioned elements was investigated and the optimum working conditions of the sample measurement on ICP-MS (Agilent-7500a) were reported. Appropriate isotope internal standards were also used to improve the accuracy of mercury determination. Optimal parameters for sampling digestion were also investigated. The recovery of analytical procedure was examined by using a Certified Reference Material (IAEA-CRM 359). The recommended procedure was then applied for the quantitative determination of Cr, As, Se, Cd, Hg, Pb in Lingzhi Mushroom capsule, and Philamine powder samples. The reproducibility of sample measurement (average value between 94 and 102%) and the uncertainty of analytical data (less than 20%) are acceptable.

Keywords: Oriental herbal product, trace elements, ICP-MS, biochemistry, medical chemistry.

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2273 Modeling the Moment of Resistance Generated by an Ore-Grinding Mill

Authors: Marinka Baghdasaryan, Tigran Mnoyan

Abstract:

The pertinence of modeling the moment of resistance generated by the ore-grinding mill is substantiated. Based on the ranking of technological indices obtained in the result of the survey among the specialists of several beneficiating plants, the factors determining the level of the moment of resistance generated by the mill are revealed. A priori diagram of the ranks is obtained in which the factors are arranged in the descending order of the impact degree on the level of the moment. The obtained model of the moment of resistance shows the technological character of the operation modes of the ore-grinding mill and can be used for improving the operation modes of the system motor-mill and preventing the abnormal mode of the drive synchronous motor.

Keywords: Model, abnormal mode, mill, correlation, moment of resistance, rotational speed.

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2272 The Absence of a National Industrial Effluent Policy: Imminent Risk to the Brazilian Bodies of Water

Authors: Aline Alves Bandeira, Maria Cecília de Paula Silva

Abstract:

The existing legal gap regarding thes treatment and final disposal of industrial effluents in Brazil promotes legal uncertainty. The government has not structured itself to guarantee environmental protection. The current legal system and public policies must guarantee the protection of bodies of water and an effective treatment of industrial effluents. This is because economic progress, eco-efficiency and industrial ecology are inseparable. The lack of protection for the water bodies weakens environmental protection, with abuses by companies that do not give due treatment to their effluents, or fail to present the water balance of their factories. It is considered necessary to enact a specific law on industrial effluents related to a National Industrial Effluent Policy, because it is the location of the largest Integrated Industrial Complex in the Southern Hemisphere. The regulation of this subject cannot be limited by decrees of the local Executive Branch, allowing the inspection of the industrial activity or enterprise to be affected fundamentally by environmental self-control, or by private institutions.

Keywords: Effluent policy, environmental law, environmental management, industrial effluents.

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2271 Supplier Selection by Bi-Objectives Mixed Integer Program Approach

Authors: K.-H. Yang

Abstract:

In the past, there was a lot of excellent research studies conducted on topics related to supplier selection. Because the considered factors of supplier selection are complicated and difficult to be quantified, most researchers deal supplier selection issues by qualitative approaches. Compared to qualitative approaches, quantitative approaches are less applicable in the real world. This study tried to apply the quantitative approach to study a supplier selection problem with considering operation cost and delivery reliability. By those factors, this study applies Normalized Normal Constraint Method to solve the dual objectives mixed integer program of the supplier selection problem.

Keywords: Bi-objectives MIP, normalized normal constraint method, supplier selection, quantitative approach.

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2270 Fragility Analysis of Weir Structure Subjected to Flooding Water Damage

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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2269 Significance of Bike-Frame Geometric Factors for Cycling Efficiency and Muscle Activation

Authors: Luen Chow Chan

Abstract:

With the advocacy of green transportation and green traveling, cycling has become increasingly popular nowadays. Physiology and bike design are key factors for the influence of cycling efficiency. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the significance of bike-frame geometric factors on cycling efficiency and muscle activation for different body sizes of non-professional Asian male cyclists. Participants who represented various body sizes, as measured by leg and back lengths, carried out cycling tests using a tailor-assembled road bike with different ergonomic design configurations including seat-height adjustments (i.e., 96%, 100%, and 104% of trochanteric height) and bike frame sizes (i.e., small and medium frames) for an assessable distance of 1 km. A specific power meter and self-developed adaptable surface electromyography (sEMG) were used to measure average pedaling power and cadence generated and muscle activation, respectively. The results showed that changing the seat height was far more significant than the body and bike frame sizes. The sEMG data evidently provided a better understanding of muscle activation as a function of different seat heights. Therefore, the interpretation of this study is that the major bike ergonomic design factor dominating the cycling efficiency of Asian participants with different body sizes was the seat height.

Keywords: Bike frame sizes, cadence rate, pedaling power, seat height.

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2268 Effect of Derating Factors on Photovoltaics under Climatic Conditions of Istanbul

Authors: Bihter Yerli, Mustafa K. Kaymak, Ercan İzgi, Ahmet Öztopal, Ahmet D. Şahin

Abstract:

As known that efficiency of photovoltaic cells is not high as desired level. Efficiency of PVs could be improved by selecting convenient locations that have high solar irradiation, sunshine duration, mild temperature, low level air pollution and dust concentration. Additionally, some environmental parameters called derating factors effect to decrease PV efficiencies such as cloud, high temperature, aerosol optical depth, high dust concentration, shadow, snow, humidity etc. In this paper, all parameters that effect PV efficiency are considered in detail under climatic conditions of Istanbul. A 750 Wp PV system with measurement devices is constructed in Maslak campus of Istanbul Technical University.

Keywords: Efficiency, Derating Factor, Istanbul, Photovoltaic.

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2267 Selecting an Advanced Creep Model or a Sophisticated Time-Integration? A New Approach by Means of Sensitivity Analysis

Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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2266 Effect of Specimen Thickness on Probability Distribution of Grown Crack Size in Magnesium Alloys

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: Crack size, Fatigue crack propagation, Magnesium alloys, Probability distribution, Specimen thickness.

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2265 Web Usability : A Fuzzy Approach to the Navigation Structure Enhancement in a Website System, Case of Iranian Civil Aviation Organization Website

Authors: Hamed Qahri Saremi, Gholam Ali Montazer

Abstract:

With the proliferation of World Wide Web, development of web-based technologies and the growth in web content, the structure of a website becomes more complex and web navigation becomes a critical issue to both web designers and users. In this paper we define the content and web pages as two important and influential factors in website navigation and paraphrase the enhancement in the website navigation as making some useful changes in the link structure of the website based on the aforementioned factors. Then we suggest a new method for proposing the changes using fuzzy approach to optimize the website architecture. Applying the proposed method to a real case of Iranian Civil Aviation Organization (CAO) website, we discuss the results of the novel approach at the final section.

Keywords: Web content, Web navigation, Website system, Webusage mining.

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2264 Phytopathology Prediction in Dry Soil Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling

Authors: F. Allag, S. Bouharati, M. Belmahdi, R. Zegadi

Abstract:

The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.

Keywords: Desert soil, Climatic changes, Bacteria, Vegetation, Artificial neural networks.

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2263 Designing Social Care Policies in the Long Term: A Study Using Regression, Clustering and Backpropagation Neural Nets

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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2262 The Motivating and Demotivating Factors at the Learning of English Center in Thailand

Authors: Bella Llego

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the motivating and de-motivating factors that affect the learning ability of students attending the English Learning Center in Thailand. The subjects of this research were 20 students from the Hana Semiconductor Co., Limited. The data were collected by using questionnaire and analyzed using the SPSS program for the percentage, mean and standard deviation. The research results show that the main motivating factor in learning English at Hana Semiconductor Co., Ltd. is that it would help the employees to communicate with foreign customers and managers. Other reasons include the need to read and write e-mails, and reports in English, as well as to increase overall general knowledge. The main de-motivating factor is that there is a lot of vocabulary to remember when learning English. Another de-motivating factor is that when homework is given, the students have no time to complete the tasks required of them at the end of the working day.

Keywords: Motivating, demotivating, English learning center, student communicate.

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2261 Friction Behavior of Wood-Plastic Composites against Uncoated Cemented Carbide

Authors: A. Vilutis, V. Jankauskas

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of the investigation of the dry sliding friction of wood-plastic composites (WPCs) against tungsten carbide-cobalt (WC-Co) hard alloy. The dependence of the dynamic coefficient of friction on the main influencing factors (vertical load, temperature, and sliding distance) was investigated by evaluating their mutual interaction. Multiple regression analysis showed a high polynomial dependence (adjusted R2 > 0.98). The resistance of the composite to thermo-mechanical effects determines how temperature and force factors affect the magnitude of the coefficient of friction. WPC-B composite has the lowest friction and highest resistance compared to WPC-A, while composite and cemented carbide materials wear the least. Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS), based on elemental composition, provided important insights into the friction process.

Keywords: Friction, composite, carbide, temperature.

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2260 Military Combat Aircraft Selection Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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2259 International Migration of Highly Skilled Indian Professionals: A Case Study of Indian IT Professionals in Japan, Preliminary Results

Authors: Rimpi Rani

Abstract:

In the 2000s, a new migration trend of highly skilled Indian professionals towards Japan has appeared. This paper examines the factors that set off the incoming of highly skilled Indian professionals in Japan, mainly focusing on IT professionals’ immigration, and the reasons of the increase in their number. It investigates the influence of four factors: The Japanese immigration policy, the bilateral relations between India and Japan, the higher education system in India and the American H-1B visa policy with its cap system. This study concludes that increased and continuous supply of highly skilled Indian professionals have intensified the competition for migration to traditional destinations like the USA. This led Indian professionals   to consider other options such as Japan.

Keywords: International migration, India, Japan, highly skilled professionals.

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2258 Factors for Entry Timing Choices Using Principal Axis Factorial Analysis and Logistic Regression Model

Authors: Mat Isa, C. M., Mohd Saman, H., Mohd Nasir, S. R., Jaapar, A.

Abstract:

International market expansion involves a strategic process of market entry decision through which a firm expands its operation from domestic to the international domain. Hence, entry timing choices require the needs to balance the early entry risks and the problems in losing opportunities as a result of late entry into a new market. Questionnaire surveys administered to 115 Malaysian construction firms operating in 51 countries worldwide have resulted in 39.1 percent response rate. Factor analysis was used to determine the most significant factors affecting entry timing choices of the firms to penetrate the international market. A logistic regression analysis used to examine the firms’ entry timing choices, indicates that the model has correctly classified 89.5 per cent of cases as late movers. The findings reveal that the most significant factor influencing the construction firms’ choices as late movers was the firm factor related to the firm’s international experience, resources, competencies and financing capacity. The study also offers valuable information to construction firms with intention to internationalize their businesses.

Keywords: Factors, early movers, entry timing choices, late movers, Logistic Regression Model, Principal Axis Factorial Analysis, Malaysian construction firms.

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2257 Intention to Use Digital Library based on Modified UTAUT Model: Perspectives of Malaysian Postgraduate Students

Authors: Abd Latif Abdul Rahman, Adnan Jamaludin, Zamalia Mahmud

Abstract:

Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model has demonstrated the influencing factors for generic information systems use such as tablet personal computer (TPC) and mobile communication. However, in the context of digital library system, there has been very little effort to determine factors affecting the intention to use digital library based on the UTAUT model. This paper investigates factors that are expected to influence the intention of postgraduate students to use digital library based on modified UTAUT model. The modified model comprises of constructs represented by several latent variables, namely performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), information quality (IQ) and service quality (SQ) and moderated by age, gender and experience in using digital library. Results show that performance expectancy, effort expectancy and information quality are positively related to the intention to use digital library, while service quality is negatively related to the intention to use digital library. Age and gender have shown no evidence of any significant interactions, while experience in using digital library significantly interacts with effort expectancy and intention to use digital library. This has provided the evidence of a moderating effect of experience in the intention to use digital library. It is expected that this research will shed new lights into research of acceptance and intention to use the library in a digital environment.

Keywords: Intention to use digital library, UTAUT model, performance expectancy, effort expectancy, information quality, service quality.

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2256 Lean Healthcare: Barriers and Enablers in the Colombian Context

Authors: Erika Ruiz, Nestor Ortiz

Abstract:

Lean philosophy has evolved over time and has been implemented both in manufacturing and services, more recently lean has been integrated in the companies of the health sector. Currently it is important to understand the successful way to implement this philosophy and try to identify barriers and enablers to the sustainability of lean healthcare. The main purpose of this research is to identify the barriers and enablers in the implementation of Lean Healthcare based on case studies of Colombian healthcare centers. In order to do so, we conducted semi-structured interviews based on a maturity model. The main results indicate that the success of Lean implementation depends on its adaptation to contextual factors. In addition, in the Colombian context were identified new factors such as organizational culture, management models, integration of the care and administrative departments and triple helix relationship.

Keywords: Barriers, enablers, implementation, lean healthcare, sustainability.

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2255 Multivariate Analytical Insights into Spatial and Temporal Variation in Water Quality of a Major Drinking Water Reservoir

Authors: Azadeh Golshan, Craig Evans, Phillip Geary, Abigail Morrow, Zoe Rogers, Marcel Maeder

Abstract:

22 physicochemical variables have been determined in water samples collected weekly from January to December in 2013 from three sampling stations located within a major drinking water reservoir. Classical Multivariate Curve Resolution Alternating Least Squares (MCR-ALS) analysis was used to investigate the environmental factors associated with the physico-chemical variability of the water samples at each of the sampling stations. Matrix augmentation MCR-ALS (MA-MCR-ALS) was also applied, and the two sets of results were compared for interpretative clarity. Links between these factors, reservoir inflows and catchment land-uses were investigated and interpreted in relation to chemical composition of the water and their resolved geographical distribution profiles. The results suggested that the major factors affecting reservoir water quality were those associated with agricultural runoff, with evidence of influence on algal photosynthesis within the water column. Water quality variability within the reservoir was also found to be strongly linked to physical parameters such as water temperature and the occurrence of thermal stratification. The two methods applied (MCR-ALS and MA-MCR-ALS) led to similar conclusions; however, MA-MCR-ALS appeared to provide results more amenable to interpretation of temporal and geological variation than those obtained through classical MCR-ALS.

Keywords: Catchment management, drinking water reservoir, multivariate curve resolution alternating least squares, thermal stratification, water quality.

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2254 Material Handling Equipment Selection using Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation and Analytic Hierarchy Process

Authors: Amer M. Momani, Abdulaziz A. Ahmed

Abstract:

The many feasible alternatives and conflicting objectives make equipment selection in materials handling a complicated task. This paper presents utilizing Monte Carlo (MC) simulation combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate and select the most appropriate Material Handling Equipment (MHE). The proposed hybrid model was built on the base of material handling equation to identify main and sub criteria critical to MHE selection. The criteria illustrate the properties of the material to be moved, characteristics of the move, and the means by which the materials will be moved. The use of MC simulation beside the AHP is very powerful where it allows the decision maker to represent his/her possible preference judgments as random variables. This will reduce the uncertainty of single point judgment at conventional AHP, and provide more confidence in the decision problem results. A small business pharmaceutical company is used as an example to illustrate the development and application of the proposed model.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Materialhandling equipment selection, Monte Carlo simulation, Multi-criteriadecision making

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2253 Heat Transfer Analysis of Rectangular Channel Plate Heat Sink

Authors: Zhang Lei, Liu Min, Liu Botao

Abstract:

In order to improve the simulation effects of space cold black environment, this paper described a rectangular channel plate heat sink. By using fluid mechanics theory and finite element method, the internal fluid flow and heat transfer in heat sink was numerically simulated to analyze the impact of channel structural on fluid flow and heat transfer. The result showed that heat sink temperature uniformity is well, and the impact of channel structural on the heat sink temperature uniformity is not significant. The channel depth and spacing are important factors which affect the fluid flow and heat transfer in the heat sink. The two factors of heat transfer and resistance need to be considered comprehensively to determine the optimal flow structure parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, heat sink, numerical simulation

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2252 The Influence of Interest, Beliefs, and Identity with Mathematics on Achievement

Authors: Asma Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

This study investigated factors that influence mathematics achievement based on a sample of ninth-grade students (N  =  21,444) from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS09). Key aspects studied included efficacy in mathematics, interest and enjoyment of mathematics, identity with mathematics and future utility beliefs and how these influence mathematics achievement. The predictability of mathematics achievement based on these factors was assessed using correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression. Spearman rank correlations and multiple regression analyses indicated positive and statistically significant relationships between the explanatory variables: mathematics efficacy, identity with mathematics, interest in and future utility beliefs with the response variable, achievement in mathematics.

Keywords: Mathematics achievement, math efficacy, mathematics interest, identity.

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2251 Identifying and Ranking Critical Success Factors for Implementing Leagile Manufacturing Industries Using Modified TOPSIS

Authors: Naveen Virmani, Rajeev Saha, Rajeshwar Sahai

Abstract:

Leagile is combination of both lean and agile system. Lean is concerned with less of everything i.e. less material, less time, less space, less manpower to produce a product, while agile is concerned with quick respond to customer demand and to reconfigure the system as soon as possible to meet the customer expectations well on time. The market is excessively competitive, so there is a dire need for the companies to adopt new and modern technologies with latest equipments. It has been seen that implementation of leagile system become tedious so the purpose of the paper is to find critical success factors (CSF) affecting leagile manufacturing system using literature review and rank them by using modified TOPSIS (Technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solution) technique.

Keywords: Agile manufacturing, lean manufacturing, leagile manufacturing, modified TOPSIS.

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2250 Measurement and Prediction of Speed of Sound in Petroleum Fluids

Authors: S. Ghafoori, A. Al-Harbi, B. Al-Ajmi, A. Al-Shaalan, A. Al-Ajmi, M. Ali Juma

Abstract:

Seismic methods play an important role in the exploration for hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, the success of the method depends strongly on the reliability of the measured or predicted information regarding the velocity of sound in the media. Speed of sound has been used to study the thermodynamic properties of fluids. In this study, experimental data are reported and analyzed on the speed of sound in toluene and octane binary mixture. Three-factor three-level Box-Benhkam design is used to determine the significance of each factor, the synergetic effects of the factors, and the most significant factors on speed of sound. The developed mathematical model and statistical analysis provided a critical analysis of the simultaneous interactive effects of the independent variables indicating that the developed quadratic models were highly accurate and predictive.

Keywords: Experimental design, octane, speed of sound, toluene.

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