Search results for: time series analysis

Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: Forest risk, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s system. Naturally exchanged patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s system. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of an industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA-safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and rural areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is predicted for multiple factors distribution schemes of multi-criteria analysis. The input–output analysis is explored from the spillover effect, and we conducted Monte Carlo simulations for sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the composite index for biosphere with collective structure of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in an artistic/architectural perspective. The hypothesis is deployed to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure in development urban environments using optimization loads as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology of systems ecology.

Keywords: Spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology.

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Authors: Ji–Wook Mauk, Yu–Suk Kim, Hyung–Joon Kim

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This study carried out comparative seismic performance of reinforced concrete frames infilled by masonry walls with different heights. Partial and fully infilled reinforced concrete frames were modeled for the research objectives and the analysis model for a bare reinforced concrete frame was also established for comparison. Non–linear static analyses for the studied frames were performed to investigate their structural behavior under extreme seismic loads and to find out their collapse mechanism. It was observed from analysis results that the strengths of the partial infilled reinforced concrete frames are increased and their ductilities are reduced, as infilled masonry walls are higher. Especially, reinforced concrete frames with higher partial infilled masonry walls would experience shear failures. Non–linear dynamic analyses using 10 earthquake records show that the bare and fully infilled reinforced concrete frame present stable collapse mechanism while the reinforced concrete frames with partially infilled masonry walls collapse in more brittle manner due to short-column effects.

Keywords: Fully infilled RC frame, partially infilled RC frame, masonry wall, short–column effects.

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Authors: S. Umarani, D. Sharmila

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A Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to cyber security. It originates from the network layer or the application layer of compromised/attacker systems which are connected to the network. The impact of this attack ranges from the simple inconvenience to use a particular service to causing major failures at the targeted server. When there is heavy traffic flow to a target server, it is necessary to classify the legitimate access and attacks. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to detect DDoS attacks from the traces of traffic flow. An access matrix is created from the traces. As the access matrix is multi dimensional, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the attributes used for detection. Two classifiers Naive Bayes and K-Nearest neighborhood are used to classify the traffic as normal or abnormal. The performance of the classifier with PCA selected attributes and actual attributes of access matrix is compared by the detection rate and False Positive Rate (FPR).

Keywords: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, Application layer DDoS, DDoS Detection, K- Nearest neighborhood classifier, Naive Bayes Classifier, Principle Component Analysis.

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Authors: W. Benaatou, A. Latif

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In this document we studied more in detail the Performances of the vertical handover in the networks WLAN, WiMAX, UMTS before studying of it the Procedure of Handoff Vertical, the whole buckled by simulations putting forward the performances of the handover in the heterogeneous networks. The goal of Vertical Handover is to carry out several accesses in real-time in the heterogeneous networks. This makes it possible a user to use several networks (such as WLAN UMTS andWiMAX) in parallel, and the system to commutate automatically at another basic station, without disconnecting itself, as if there were no cut and with little loss of data as possible.

Keywords: Vertical handoff, WLAN, UMTS, WIMAX, Heterogeneous.

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Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Yi-Lin Shieh

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This paper deals with the optimal design of two-channel recursive parallelogram quadrature mirror filter (PQMF) banks. The analysis and synthesis filters of the PQMF bank are composed of two-dimensional (2-D) recursive digital all-pass filters (DAFs) with nonsymmetric half-plane (NSHP) support region. The design problem can be facilitated by using the 2-D doubly complementary half-band (DC-HB) property possessed by the analysis and synthesis filters. For finding the coefficients of the 2-D recursive NSHP DAFs, we appropriately formulate the design problem to result in an optimization problem that can be solved by using a weighted least-squares (WLS) algorithm in the minimax (L_∞) optimal sense. The designed 2-D recursive PQMF bank achieves perfect magnitude response and possesses satisfactory phase response without requiring extra phase equalizer. Simulation results are also provided for illustration and comparison.

Keywords: Parallelogram Quadrature Mirror Filter Bank, Doubly Complementary Filter, Nonsymmetric Half-Plane Filter, Weighted Least Squares Algorithm, Digital All-Pass Filter.

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Authors: Giovanni Incerti

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The paper presents a method for a simple and immediate motion planning of a SCARA robot, whose end-effector has to move along a given trajectory; the calculation procedure requires the user to define in analytical form or by points the trajectory to be followed and to assign the curvilinear abscissa as function of the time. On the basis of the geometrical characteristics of the robot, a specifically developed program determines the motion laws of the actuators that enable the robot to generate the required movement; this software can be used in all industrial applications for which a SCARA robot has to be frequently reprogrammed, in order to generate various types of trajectories with different motion times.

Keywords: Motion planning, SCARA robot, trajectory tracking.

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Authors: Hadi Aghazadeh, Seyed Ebrahim Afjei, Alireza Siadatan

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In this paper, a proper approach is taken to assess a set of the most effective rotor design parameters for an external-rotor permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance motor (PMaSynRM) and therefore to tackle the design complexity of the rotor structure. There are different advantages for introducing permanent magnets into the rotor flux barriers, some of which are to saturate the rotor iron ribs, to increase the motor torque density and to improve the power factor. Moreover, the d-axis and q-axis inductances are of great importance to simultaneously achieve maximum developed torque and low torque ripple. Therefore, sensitivity analysis of the rotor geometry of an 8-pole external-rotor permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance motor is performed. Several magnetically accurate finite element analyses (FEA) are conducted to characterize the electromagnetic performance of the motor. The analyses validate torque and power factor equations for the proposed external-rotor motor. Based upon the obtained results and due to an additional term, permanent magnet torque, added to the reluctance torque, the electromagnetic torque of the PMaSynRM increases.

Keywords: Permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance motor, flux barrier, flux carrier, electromagnetic torque, and power factor.

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Authors: Visuwan D., Phruksaphanrat B

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In this research, computer simulation is used for Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) plant layout analysis. The current layout of this manufacturing plant is a process layout, which is not suitable due to the nature of an EMS that has high-volume and high-variety environment. Moreover, quick response and high flexibility are also needed. Then, cellular manufacturing layout design was determined for the selected group of products. Systematic layout planning (SLP) was used to analyze and design the possible cellular layouts for the factory. The cellular layout was selected based on the main criteria of the plant. Computer simulation was used to analyze and compare the performance of the proposed cellular layout and the current layout. It found that the proposed cellular layout can generate better performances than the current layout. In this research, computer simulation is used for Electronic Manufacturing Service (EMS) plant layout analysis. The current layout of this manufacturing plant is a process layout, which is not suitable due to the nature of an EMS that has high-volume and high-variety environment. Moreover, quick response and high flexibility are also needed. Then, cellular manufacturing layout design was determined for the selected group of products. Systematic layout planning (SLP) was used to analyze and design the possible cellular layouts for the factory. The cellular layout was selected based on the main criteria of the plant. Computer simulation was used to analyze and compare the performance of the proposed cellular layout and the current layout. It found that the proposed cellular layout can generate better performances than the current layout. 

Keywords: Layout, Electronic Manufacturing Service Plant (EMS), Computer Simulation, Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS).

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Authors: Radomir Perzina, Jaroslav Ramik

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel. Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method, Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method. Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples of real life decision problems.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision making, pair-wise comparisons, Microsoft Excel, Scenarios.

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

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Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: Distribution network, gas cylinder, Jordan, supply chain.

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Authors: Corrado Grassi, Achim Schröter, Yves Gloy, Thomas Gries

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Air jet weaving is the most productive, but also the most energy consuming weaving method. Increasing energy costs and environmental impact are constantly a challenge for the manufacturers of weaving machines. Current technological developments concern with low energy costs, low environmental impact, high productivity, and constant product quality. The high degree of energy consumption of the method can be ascribed to the high need of compressed air. An energy efficiency method is applied to the air jet weaving technology. Such method identifies and classifies the main relevant energy consumers and processes from the exergy point of view and it leads to the identification of energy efficiency potentials during the weft insertion process. Starting from the design phase, energy efficiency is considered as the central requirement to be satisfied. The initial phase of the method consists of an analysis of the state of the art of the main weft insertion components in order to point out a prioritization of the high demanding energy components and processes. The identified major components are investigated to reduce the high demand of energy of the weft insertion process. During the interaction of the flow field coming from the relay nozzles within the profiled reed, only a minor part of the stream is really accelerating the weft yarn, hence resulting in large energy inefficiency. Different tools such as FEM analysis, CFD simulation models and experimental analysis are used in order to design a more energy efficient design of the involved components in the filling insertion. A different concept for the metal strip of the profiled reed is developed. The developed metal strip allows a reduction of the machine energy consumption. Based on a parametric and aerodynamic study, the designed reed transmits higher values of the flow power to the filling yarn. The innovative reed fulfills both the requirement of raising energy efficiency and the compliance with the weaving constraints.

Keywords: Air jet weaving, aerodynamic simulation, energy efficiency, experimental measurements, power costs, weft insertion.

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Authors: Mostafa E. Saleh, A. Abdel Nabi, A. Baith Mohamed

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In order to make surfing the internet faster, and to save redundant processing load with each request for the same web page, many caching techniques have been developed to reduce latency of retrieving data on World Wide Web. In this paper we will give a quick overview of existing web caching techniques used for dynamic web pages then we will introduce a design and implementation model that take advantage of “URL Rewriting" feature in some popular web servers, e.g. Apache, to provide an effective approach of caching dynamic web pages.

Keywords: Web Caching, URL Rewriting, Optimizing Web Performance, Dynamic Web Pages Loading Time.

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Authors: Veronika Solilová, Danuše Nerudová

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The paper examines the interaction between the environmental taxation, size of government spending on environmental protection and greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption. The aim is to analyze the effects of environmental taxation and government spending on environmental protection as an environmental policy instruments on greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption in the EU15. The empirical study is performed using a VAR approach with the application of aggregated data of EU15 over the period 1995 to 2012. The results provide the evidence that the reactions of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption to the shocks of environmental policy instruments are strong, mainly in the short term and decay to zero after about 8 years. Further, the reactions of the environmental policy instruments to the shocks of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption are also strong in the short term, however with the deferred effects. In addition, the results show that government spending on environmental protection together with gross inland energy consumption has stronger effect on greenhouse gas emissions than environmental taxes in EU15 over the examined period.

Keywords: VAR analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental taxation, government spending.

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Authors: František Mošna

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E-learning has become an efficient and widespread means of education at all levels of human activities. Statistics is no exception. Unfortunately the main focus in statistics teaching is usually paid to the substitution in formulas. Suitable websites can simplify and automate calculations and provide more attention and time to the basic principles of statistics, mathematization of real-life situations and following interpretation of results. We now introduce our own web-site for hypothesis testing. Its didactic aspects, the technical possibilities of the individual tools, the experience of use and the advantages or disadvantages are discussed in this paper. This web-site is not a substitute for common statistical software but should significantly improve the teaching of statistics at universities.

Keywords: E-learning, hypothesis testing, PHP, websites.

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Authors: Ahmet Kurnaz, Eyup Yurt, Ümit Çiftci

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In this study, too, an attempt was made to reveal the place and effects of information technologies on the lives and education of gifted children based on the views of gifted. To this end, the effects of information technologies on gifted are general skills, technology use, academic and social skills, and cooperative and personal skills were investigated. These skills were explored depending on whether or not gifted had their own computers, had internet connection at home, or how often they use the internet, average time period they spent at the computer, how often they played computer games and their use of social media. The study was conducted using the screening model with a quantitative approach. The sample of the study consisted of 129 gifted attending 5-12th classes in 12 provinces in different regions of Turkey. 64 of the participants were female while 65 were male. The research data were collected using the using computer of gifted and information technologies (UCIT) questionnaire which was developed by the researchers and given its final form after receiving expert view. As a result of the study, it was found that UCIT use improved foreign language speaking skills of gifted, enabled them to get to know and understand different cultures, and made use of computer and information technologies while they study. At the end of the study these result were obtained: Gifted have positive idea using computer and communication technology. There are differences whether using the internet about the ideas UCIT. But there are not differences whether having computer, inhabited city, grade level, having internet at home, daily and weekly internet usage durations, playing the computer and internet game, having Facebook and Twitter account about the UCIT. UCIT contribute to the development of gifted vocabulary, allows knowing and understand different cultures, developing foreign language speaking skills, gifted do not give up computer when they do their homework, improve their reading, listening, understanding and writing skills in a foreign language. Gifted children want to have transition to the use of tablets in education. They think UCIT facilitates doing their homework, contributes learning more information in a shorter time. They'd like to use computer-assisted instruction programs at courses. They think they will be more successful in the future if their computer skills are good. But gifted students prefer teacher instead of teaching with computers and they said that learning can be run from home without going to school.

Keywords: Gifted, using computer, communication technology.

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Authors: Chanchal Biswas, Anrin Bhattacharyya, Gopes Chandra Das, Mahua Ghosh Chaudhuri, Rajib Dey

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Boiler coals with low fixed carbon and higher ash content have always challenged the metallurgists to develop a suitable method for their utilization. In the present study, an attempt is made to establish an energy effective method for the reduction of iron ore fines in the form of nuggets by using ‘Syngas’. By devolatisation (expulsion of volatile matter by applying heat) of boiler coal, gaseous product (enriched with reducing agents like CO, CO2, H2, and CH4 gases) is generated. Iron ore nuggets are reduced by this syngas. For that reason, there is no direct contact between iron ore nuggets and coal ash. It helps to control the minimization of the sulphur intake of the reduced nuggets. A laboratory scale devolatisation furnace designed with reduction facility is evaluated after in-depth studies and exhaustive experimentations including thermo-gravimetric (TG-DTA) analysis to find out the volatile fraction present in boiler grade coal, gas chromatography (GC) to find out syngas composition in different temperature and furnace temperature gradient measurements to minimize the furnace cost by applying one heating coil. The nuggets are reduced in the devolatisation furnace at three different temperatures and three different times. The pre-reduced nuggets are subjected to analytical weight loss calculations to evaluate the extent of reduction. The phase and surface morphology analysis of pre-reduced samples are characterized using X-ray diffractometry (XRD), energy dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDX), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), carbon sulphur analyzer and chemical analysis method. Degree of metallization of the reduced nuggets is 78.9% by using boiler grade coal. The pre-reduced nuggets with lesser sulphur content could be used in the blast furnace as raw materials or coolant which would reduce the high quality of coke rate of the furnace due to its pre-reduced character. These can be used in Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) as coolant also.

Keywords: Alternative ironmaking, coal devolatisation, extent of reduction, nugget making, syngas based DRI, solid state reduction.

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Authors: M. D. Prokhorov, V. I. Ponomarenko, A. S. Karavaev, A. R. Kiselev, V. I. Gridnev

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Synchronization between the slow oscillations of heart rate and blood pressure having in humans a basic frequency close to 0.1 Hz is investigated. A method is proposed for quantitative estimation of synchronization between these oscillating processes based on calculation of relative time of phase synchronization of oscillations. It is shown that healthy subjects exhibit in average substantially longer epochs of synchronization between the slow oscillations in heart rate and blood pressure than patients after acute myocardial infarction

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, slow oscillating processes, synchronization.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: Pratch Kittipongpattana, Thongchai Fongsamootr

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This research aimed to study the influences of a soot blowing operation and geometrical variables to the stress characteristic of water wall tubes located in soot blowing areas which caused the boilers of Mae Moh power plant to lose their generation hour. The research method is divided into 2 parts (a) measuring the strain on water wall tubes by using 3-element rosette strain gages orientation during a full capacity plant operation and in periods of soot blowing operations (b) creating a finite element model in order to calculate stresses on tubes and validating the model by using experimental data in a steady state plant operation. Then, the geometrical variables in the model were changed to study stresses on the tubes. The results revealed that the stress was not affected by the soot blowing process and the finite element model gave the results 1.24% errors from the experiment. The geometrical variables influenced the stress, with the most optimum tubes design in this research reduced the average stress from the present design 31.28%.

Keywords: Boiler water wall tube, Finite element, Stress analysis, Strain gage rosette.

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Authors: Fahim Kahlouche, Alaoua Bouaicha, Sihem Chaîbeddra, Sid-Ali Rafa, Abdelhamid Benouali

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A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Keywords: Slope, shallow foundation, numeric method, FLAC 2D.

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Authors: Rahib H. Abiyev

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In this paper the application of neuro-fuzzy system for equalization of channel distortion is considered. The structure and operation algorithm of neuro-fuzzy equalizer are described. The use of neuro-fuzzy equalizer in digital signal transmission allows to decrease training time of parameters and decrease the complexity of the network. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy equalizer is performed. The obtained result satisfies the efficiency of application of neurofuzzy technology in channel equalization.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy system, noise equalization, neuro-fuzzy equalizer, neural system.

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Authors: Pushpa B. Patil, Manesh B. Kokare

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This paper presents content-based image retrieval (CBIR) frameworks with relevance feedback (RF) based on combined learning of support vector machines (SVM) and AdaBoosts. The framework incorporates only most relevant images obtained from both the learning algorithm. To speed up the system, it removes irrelevant images from the database, which are returned from SVM learner. It is the key to achieve the effective retrieval performance in terms of time and accuracy. The experimental results show that this framework had significant improvement in retrieval effectiveness, which can finally improve the retrieval performance.

Keywords: Image retrieval, relevance feedback, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Ahmed Kiani

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The United Arab Emirates is clearly facing a multitude of challenges in curbing its greenhouse gas emissions to meet its pre-allotted framework of Kyoto protocol and COP21 targets due to its hunger for modernization, industrialization, infrastructure growth, soaring population and oil and gas activity. In this work, we focus on the bonafide zero emission electric vehicles market penetration in the country’s transport industry for emission reduction. We study the global electric vehicle market trends, the complementary battery technologies and the trends by manufacturers, emission standards across borders and prioritized advancements which will ultimately dictate the terms of future conditions for the United Arab Emirate transport industry. Based on our findings and analysis at every stage of current viability and state-of-transport-affairs, we postulate policy recommendations to local governmental entities from a supply and demand perspective covering aspects of technology, infrastructure requirements, change in power dynamics, end user incentives program, market regulators behavior and communications amongst key stakeholders. 

Keywords: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emission reductions, market analysis, policy recommendations.

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Authors: Azhar Abdul Rahman

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This paper examines the readability of the chairman’s narratives, as determined by the Flesch score, of a Malaysian public listed company’s corporate reports from 1962 to 2009. It partially supports earlier studies which demonstrated that corporate reports were difficult to read, and had shown very negligible decrease in difficulty over time. Net profit to sales and readability was significantly positively correlated but number of financial statements was significantly negatively correlated with readability.

Keywords: Chairman’s narratives, corporate communications, readability, longitudinal.

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Authors: R. O’Reilly Meehan, D. B. Murray

Abstract:

In many practical situations, bubbles are dispersed in a liquid phase. Understanding these complex bubbly flows is therefore a key issue for applications such as shell and tube heat exchangers, mineral flotation and oxidation in water treatment. Although a large body of work exists for bubbles rising in an unbounded medium, that of bubbles rising in constricted geometries has received less attention. The particular case of a bubble sliding underneath an inclined surface is common to two-phase flow systems. The current study intends to expand this knowledge by performing experiments to quantify the streamwise flow structures associated with a single sliding air bubble under an inclined surface in quiescent water. This is achieved by means of two-dimensional, two-component particle image velocimetry (PIV), performed with a continuous wave laser and high-speed camera. PIV vorticity fields obtained in a plane perpendicular to the sliding surface show that there is significant bulk fluid motion away from the surface. The associated momentum of the bubble means that this wake motion persists for a significant time before viscous dissipation. The magnitude and direction of the flow structures in the streamwise measurement plane are found to depend on the point on its path through which the bubble enters the plane. This entry point, represented by a phase angle, affects the nature and strength of the vortical structures. This study reconstructs the vorticity field in the wake of the bubble, converting the field at different instances in time to slices of a large-scale wake structure. This is, in essence, Taylor’s ”frozen turbulence” hypothesis. Applying this to the vorticity fields provides a pseudo three-dimensional representation from 2-D data, allowing for a more intuitive understanding of the bubble wake. This study provides insights into the complex dynamics of a situation common to many engineering applications, particularly shell and tube heat exchangers in the nucleate boiling regime.

Keywords: Bubbly flow, particle image velocimetry, two-phase flow, wake structures.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann

Abstract:

In this article, a formal specification and verification of the Rabin public-key scheme in a formal proof system is presented. The idea is to use the two views of cryptographic verification: the computational approach relying on the vocabulary of probability theory and complexity theory and the formal approach based on ideas and techniques from logic and programming languages. A major objective of this article is the presentation of the first computer-proved implementation of the Rabin public-key scheme in Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we explicate a (computer-proven) formalization of correctness as well as a computer verification of security properties using a straight-forward computation model in Isabelle/HOL. The analysis uses a given database to prove formal properties of our implemented functions with computer support. The main task in designing a practical formalization of correctness as well as efficient computer proofs of security properties is to cope with the complexity of cryptographic proving. We reduce this complexity by exploring a light-weight formalization that enables both appropriate formal definitions as well as efficient formal proofs. Consequently, we get reliable proofs with a minimal error rate augmenting the used database, what provides a formal basis for more computer proof constructions in this area.

Keywords: public-key encryption, Rabin public-key scheme, formalproof system, higher-order logic, formal verification.

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Authors: M. M. Rahman, Thamir K. Ibrahim, M. Y. Taib, M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Regenerative gas turbine engine cycle is presented that yields higher cycle efficiencies than simple cycle operating under the same conditions. The power output, efficiency and specific fuel consumption are simulated with respect to operating conditions. The analytical formulae about the relation to determine the thermal efficiency are derived taking into account the effected operation conditions (ambient temperature, compression ratio, regenerator effectiveness, compressor efficiency, turbine efficiency and turbine inlet temperature). Model calculations for a wide range of parameters are presented, as are comparisons with simple gas turbine cycle. The power output and thermal efficiency are found to be increasing with the regenerative effectiveness, and the compressor and turbine efficiencies. The efficiency increased with increase the compression ratio to 5, then efficiency decreased with increased compression ratio, but in simple cycle the thermal efficiency always increase with increased in compression ratio. The increased in ambient temperature caused decreased thermal efficiency, but the increased in turbine inlet temperature increase thermal efficiency.

Keywords: Gas turbine, power plant, thermal analysis, regeneration

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