Search results for: Prediction
423 Guided Wave Sensitivity for De-Bond Defects in Aluminum Skin-Honeycomb Core
Authors: A. Satour, F. Boubenider, R. Halimi, A. Badidibouda
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Sandwich plates are finding an increasing range of application in the aircraft industry. The inspection of honeycomb composite structure by conventional ultrasonic technique is complex and very time consuming. The present study demonstrates a technique using guided Lamb waves at low frequencies to predict de-bond defects in aluminum skin-honeycomb core sandwich structure used in aeronautics. The numerical method was investigated for drawing the dispersion and displacement curves of ultrasonic Lamb wave propagated in Aluminum plate. An experimental study was carried out to check the theoretical prediction. The detection of unsticking between the skin and the core was tested by the two first modes for a low frequency. It was found that A0 mode is more sensitive to delamination defect compared to S0 mode.
Keywords: Damage detection, delamination, guided waves, Sandwich structure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2324422 Experimental and CFD Investigation of Nozzle Angle in Jet Mixer
Authors: Hamid Rafiei, Reza Janamiri, Mohammad Hossein Sedaghat, Amir Hatampour
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In this work, the results of mixing study by a jet mixer in a tank have been investigated in the laboratory scale. The tank dimensions are H/D=1 and the jet entrance have been considered in the center of upper surface of tank. RNG-k-ε model is used as the turbulent model for the prediction of the pattern of turbulent flow inside the tank. For this purpose, a tank with volume of 110 liter is simulated and it has been divided into 410,000 tetrahedral control cells for performing the calculations. The grids at the vicinity of the nozzle and suction pare are finer to get more accurate results. The experimental results showed that in a vertical jet, the lowest mixing time takes place at 35 degree. In addition, mixing time decreased by increasing the Reynolds number. Furthermore, the CFD simulation predicted the items as well a flow patterns precisely that validates the experiments.
Keywords: Jet mixer, CFD, Turbulent model, Nozzle angle, Mixing time, Reynolds Number.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2579421 Change of the Thermal Conductivity of Polystyrene Insulation in term of Temperature at the Mid Thickness of the Insulation Material: Impact on the Cooling Load
Authors: M. Khoukhi
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Accurate prediction of the cooling/heating load and consequently, the sizing of the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning equipment require precise calculation of the heat transfer mainly by conduction through envelope components of a building. The thermal resistance of most thermal insulation materials depends on the operating temperature. The temperature to which the insulation materials are exposed varies, depending on the thermal resistance of the materials, the location of the insulation layer within the assembly system, and the effective temperature which depends on the amount of solar radiation received on the surface of the assembly. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the change of the thermal conductivity of polystyrene insulation material in terms of the temperature at the mid-thickness of the material and its effect on the cooling load required by the building.
Keywords: Operating temperature, polystyrene insulation, thermal conductivity, cooling load.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2531420 Prediction of Soil Exchangeable Sodium Ratio Based on Soil Sodium Adsorption Ratio
Authors: M. Siosemarde, F. Kave, E. Pazira, H. Sedghi, S. J. Ghaderi
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Researchers have long had trouble in measurement of Exchangeable Sodium Ratio (ESR) at salt-affected soils. this parameter are often determined using laborious and time consuming laboratory tests, but it may be more appropriate and economical to develop a method which uses a more simple soil salinity index. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between exchangeable sodium ratio (ESR) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) in some salt-affected soils of Khuzestan plain. To this purpose, two experimental areas (S1, S2) of Khuzestan province-IRAN were selected and four treatments with three replications by series of double rings were applied. The treatments were included 25cm, 50cm, 75cm and 100cm water application. The statistical results of the study indicated that in order to predict soil ESR based on soil SAR the linear regression model ESR=0.2048+0.0066 SAR (R2=0.53) & ESR=0.0564+0.0171 SAR (R2=0.76) can be recommended in Pilot S1 and S2 respectively.Keywords: exchangeable sodium ratio, Khuzestan plain, saltaffectedsoils and sodium adsorption ratio.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3253419 Software Effort Estimation Using Soft Computing Techniques
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar
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Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.
Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2076418 Prediction and Reduction of Cracking Issue in Precision Forging of Engine Valves Using Finite Element Method
Authors: Xi Yang, Bulent Chavdar, Alan Vonseggern, Taylan Altan
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Fracture in hot precision forging of engine valves was investigated in this paper. The entire valve forging procedure was described and the possible cause of the fracture was proposed. Finite Element simulation was conducted for the forging process, with commercial Finite Element code DEFORMTM. The effects of material properties, the effect of strain rate and temperature were considered in the FE simulation. Two fracture criteria were discussed and compared, based on the accuracy and reliability of the FE simulation results. The selected criterion predicted the fracture location and shows the trend of damage increasing with good accuracy, which matches the experimental observation. Additional modification of the punch shapes was proposed to further reduce the tendency of fracture in forging. Finite Element comparison shows a great potential of such application in the mass production.
Keywords: Hot forging, engine valve, fracture, tooling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2862417 Prediction of Tool and Nozzle Flow Behavior in Ultrasonic Machining Process
Authors: Vinod Kumar, Jatinder Kumar
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The use of hard and brittle material has become increasingly more extensive in recent years. Therefore processing of these materials for the parts fabrication has become a challenging problem. However, it is time-consuming to machine the hard brittle materials with the traditional metal-cutting technique that uses abrasive wheels. In addition, the tool would suffer excessive wear as well. However, if ultrasonic energy is applied to the machining process and coupled with the use of hard abrasive grits, hard and brittle materials can be effectively machined. Ultrasonic machining process is mostly used for the brittle materials. The present research work has developed models using finite element approach to predict the mechanical stresses sand strains produced in the tool during ultrasonic machining process. Also the flow behavior of abrasive slurry coming out of the nozzle has been studied for simulation using ANSYS CFX module. The different abrasives of different grit sizes have been used for the experimentation work.Keywords: Stress, MRR, Flow, Ultrasonic Machining
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2810416 An Examination of the Factors Influencing Software Development Effort
Authors: Zhizhong Jiang, Peter Naudé
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Effective evaluation of software development effort is an important aspect of successful project management. Based on a large database with 4106 projects ever developed, this study statistically examines the factors that influence development effort. The factors found to be significant for effort are project size, average number of developers that worked on the project, type of development, development language, development platform, and the use of rapid application development. Among these factors, project size is the most critical cost driver. Unsurprisingly, this study found that the use of CASE tools does not necessarily reduce development effort, which adds support to the claim that the use of tools is subtle. As many of the current estimation models are rarely or unsuccessfully used, this study proposes a parsimonious parametric model for the prediction of effort which is both simple and more accurate than previous models.
Keywords: Development effort, function points, team size, development language, CASE tool, rapid application development.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2508415 Hydro-Mechanical Behavior of a Tuff and Calcareous Sand Mixture for Use in Pavement in Arid Region
Authors: I. Goual, M. S. Goual, M. K. Gueddouda, Taïbi Saïd, Abou-Bekr Nabil, A. Ferhat
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The aim of the paper is to study the hydro-mechanical behavior of a tuff and calcareous sand mixture. A first experimental phase was carried out in order to find the optimal mixture. This showed that the material composed of 80% tuff and 20% calcareous sand provides the maximum mechanical strength. The second experimental phase concerns the study of the drying-wetting behavior of the optimal mixture was carried out on slurry samples and compacted samples at the MPO. Experimental results let to deduce the parameters necessary for the prediction of the hydro-mechanical behavior of pavement formulated from tuff and calcareous sand mixtures, related to moisture. This optimal mixture satisfies the regulation rules and hence constitutes a good local eco-material, abundantly available, for the conception of pavements.Keywords: Tuff, sandy calcareous, road engineering, hydro mechanical behaviour, suction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1530414 Large-Eddy Simulation of Hypersonic Configuration Aerodynamics
Authors: Huang Shengqin, Xiao Hong
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LES with mixed subgrid-scale model has been used to simulate aerodynamic performance of hypersonic configuration. The simulation was conducted to replicate conditions and geometry of a model which has been previously tested. LES Model has been successful in predict pressure coefficient with the max error 1.5% besides afterbody. But in the high Mach number condition, it is poor in predict ability and product 12.5% error. The calculation error are mainly conducted by the distribution swirling. The fact of poor ability in the high Mach number and afterbody region indicated that the mixed subgrid-scale model should be improved in large eddied especially in hypersonic separate region. In the condition of attach and sideslip flight, the calculation results have waves. LES are successful in the prediction the pressure wave in hypersonic flow.Keywords: Hypersonic, LES, mixed Subgrid-scale model, experiment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1572413 New Approach for Load Modeling
Authors: S. Chokri
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Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.
Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2198412 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation
Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi
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In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1981411 Kalman Filter Gain Elimination in Linear Estimation
Authors: Nicholas D. Assimakis
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In linear estimation, the traditional Kalman filter uses the Kalman filter gain in order to produce estimation and prediction of the n-dimensional state vector using the m-dimensional measurement vector. The computation of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In this paper, a variation of the Kalman filter eliminating the Kalman filter gain is proposed. In the time varying case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix and the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In the time invariant case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix in every iteration. The proposed Kalman filter gain elimination algorithm may be faster than the conventional Kalman filter, depending on the model dimensions.
Keywords: Discrete time, linear estimation, Kalman filter, Kalman filter gain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 638410 NFκB Pathway Modeling for Optimal Drug Combination Therapy on Multiple Myeloma
Authors: Huiming Peng, Jianguo Wen, Hongwei Li, Jeff Chang, Xiaobo Zhou
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NFκB activation plays a crucial role in anti-apoptotic responses in response to the apoptotic signaling during tumor necrosis factor (TNFa) stimulation in Multiple Myeloma (MM). Although several drugs have been found effective for the treatment of MM by mainly inhibiting NFκB pathway, there are no any quantitative or qualitative results of comparison assessment on inhibition effect between different single drugs or drug combinations. Computational modeling is becoming increasingly indispensable for applied biological research mainly because it can provide strong quantitative predicting power. In this study, a novel computational pathway modeling approach is employed to comparably assess the inhibition effects of specific single drugs and drug combinations on the NFκB pathway in MM, especially the prediction of synergistic drug combinations.
Keywords: Computational modeling, drug combination, inhibition effect, multiple myeloma, NFkB pathway.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3047409 Prediction-Based Midterm Operation Planning for Energy Management of Exhibition Hall
Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu
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Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.
Keywords: Building energy management, machine learning, simulation-based optimization, operation planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 990408 A New Analytical Approach to Reconstruct Residual Stresses Due to Turning Process
Authors: G.H. Farrahi, S.A. Faghidian, D.J. Smith
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A thin layer on the component surface can be found with high tensile residual stresses, due to turning operations, which can dangerously affect the fatigue performance of the component. In this paper an analytical approach is presented to reconstruct the residual stress field from a limited incomplete set of measurements. Airy stress function is used as the primary unknown to directly solve the equilibrium equations and satisfying the boundary conditions. In this new method there exists the flexibility to impose the physical conditions that govern the behavior of residual stress to achieve a meaningful complete stress field. The analysis is also coupled to a least squares approximation and a regularization method to provide stability of the inverse problem. The power of this new method is then demonstrated by analyzing some experimental measurements and achieving a good agreement between the model prediction and the results obtained from residual stress measurement.Keywords: Residual stress, Limited measurements, Inverse problems, Turning process.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1430407 Finite Element Modeling to Predict the Effect of Nose Radius on the Equivalent Strain (PEEQ) for Titanium Alloy (Ti-6Al-4V)
Authors: Moaz H. Ali, M. N. M. Ansari, Pang Jing Shen
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In present work, prediction the effect of nose radius, rz (mm) on the equivalent strain (PEEQ) and surface finish during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) through orthogonal cutting process. The results were performed at several of the nose radiuses, rz (mm) while the cutting speed, vc (m/min), feed rate, f (mm/tooth) and depth of cut, d (mm) were remained constant. The equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was estimated by using finite element modeling (FEM) and applied through ABAQUS/EXPLICIT software. The simulation results led to conclude that the equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was increased and surface roughness (Ra) decreased when increasing nose radius, rz (mm) during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti–6Al–4V) in dry cutting conditions.
Keywords: Finite element modeling (FEM), nose radius, plastic strain (PEEQ), titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2484406 Application of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Pressure Distribution of a Plunging Airfoil
Authors: F. Rasi Maezabadi, M. Masdari, M. R. Soltani
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Series of experimental tests were conducted on a section of a 660 kW wind turbine blade to measure the pressure distribution of this model oscillating in plunging motion. In order to minimize the amount of data required to predict aerodynamic loads of the airfoil, a General Regression Neural Network, GRNN, was trained using the measured experimental data. The network once proved to be accurate enough, was used to predict the flow behavior of the airfoil for the desired conditions. Results showed that with using a few of the acquired data, the trained neural network was able to predict accurate results with minimal errors when compared with the corresponding measured values. Therefore with employing this trained network the aerodynamic coefficients of the plunging airfoil, are predicted accurately at different oscillation frequencies, amplitudes, and angles of attack; hence reducing the cost of tests while achieving acceptable accuracy.Keywords: Airfoil, experimental, GRNN, Neural Network, Plunging.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1656405 Finite Element Modeling of Rotating Mixing of Toothpaste
Authors: Inamullah Bhatti, Ahsanullah Baloch, Khadija Qureshi
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The objective of this research is to examine the shear thinning behaviour of mixing flow of non-Newtonian fluid like toothpaste in the dissolution container with rotating stirrer. The problem under investigation is related to the chemical industry. Mixing of fluid is performed in a cylindrical container with rotating stirrer, where stirrer is eccentrically placed on the lid of the container. For the simulation purpose the associated motion of the fluid is considered as revolving of the container, with stick stirrer. For numerical prediction, a time-stepping finite element algorithm in a cylindrical polar coordinate system is adopted based on semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin/pressure-correction scheme. Numerical solutions are obtained for non-Newtonian fluids employing power law model. Variations with power law index have been analysed, with respect to the flow structure and pressure drop.
Keywords: finite element simulation, mixing fluid, rheology, rotating flow, toothpaste
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2257404 The Effect of Material Properties and Volumetric Changes in Phase Transformation to the Final Residual Stress of Welding Process
Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi
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The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo- Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.Keywords: Residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1980403 A Neural Network Approach in Predicting the Blood Glucose Level for Diabetic Patients
Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Ong Pauline, C. Ardil
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Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, principal component analysis, time-series, wavelet neural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2989402 Prediction of Phenolic Compound Migration Process through Soil Media using Artificial Neural Network Approach
Authors: Supriya Pal, Kalyan Adhikari, Somnath Mukherjee, Sudipta Ghosh
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This study presents the application of artificial neural network for modeling the phenolic compound migration through vertical soil column. A three layered feed forward neural network with back propagation training algorithm was developed using forty eight experimental data sets obtained from laboratory fixed bed vertical column tests. The input parameters used in the model were the influent concentration of phenol(mg/L) on the top end of the soil column, depth of the soil column (cm), elapsed time after phenol injection (hr), percentage of clay (%), percentage of silt (%) in soils. The output of the ANN was the effluent phenol concentration (mg/L) from the bottom end of the soil columns. The ANN predicted results were compared with the experimental results of the laboratory tests and the accuracy of the ANN model was evaluated.Keywords: Modeling, Neural Networks, Phenol, Soil media
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2145401 Application of Turbulence Modeling in Computational Fluid Dynamics for Airfoil Simulations
Authors: Mohammed Bilal
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The precise prediction of aerodynamic behavior is necessary for the design and optimization of airfoils for a variety of applications. Turbulence, a phenomenon of complex and irregular flow, significantly affects the aerodynamic properties of airfoils. Therefore, turbulence modeling is essential for accurately predicting the behavior of airfoils in simulations. This study investigates five commonly employed turbulence models: Spalart-Allmaras (SA) model, k-epsilon model, k-omega model, Reynolds Stress Model (RSM), and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model. The paper includes a comparison of the models' precision, computational expense, and applicability to various flow conditions. The strengths and weaknesses of each model are highlighted, allowing researchers and engineers to make informed decisions regarding simulations of specific airfoils. Unquestionably, the continuous development of turbulence modeling will contribute to further improvements in airfoil design and optimization, which will be advantageous to numerous industries.
Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, airfoil, turbulence, aircraft.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 283400 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries
Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco
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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 558399 Tools for Analysis and Optimization of Standalone Green Microgrids
Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko
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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1060398 Neuro-Fuzzy Network Based On Extended Kalman Filtering for Financial Time Series
Authors: Chokri Slim
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The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.
Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, financial time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2012397 Numerical and Infrared Mapping of Temperature in Heat Affected Zone during Plasma Arc Cutting of Mild Steel
Authors: Dalvir Singh, Somnath Chattopadhyaya
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During welding or flame cutting of metals, the prediction of heat affected zone (HAZ) is critical. There is need to develop a simple mathematical model to calculate the temperature variation in HAZ and derivative analysis can be used for this purpose. This study presents analytical solution for heat transfer through conduction in mild steel plate. The homogeneous and nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are single variables. The full field analytical solutions of temperature measurement, subjected to local heating source, are derived first by method of separation of variables followed with the experimental visualization using infrared imaging. Based on the present work, it is suggested that appropriate heat input characteristics controls the temperature distribution in and around HAZ.Keywords: Conduction Heat Transfer, Heat Affected Zone (HAZ), Infra-Red Imaging, Numerical Method, Orthogonal Function, Plasma Arc Cutting, Separation of Variables, Temperature Measurement.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1787396 Determining Earthquake Performances of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings by Using ANN
Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu
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In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.Keywords: Artificial neural network, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2664395 A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach Based Voting Scheme for Fault Tolerant Systems Using Artificial Bee Colony Training
Authors: D. Uma Devi, P. Seetha Ramaiah
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Voting algorithms are extensively used to make decisions in fault tolerant systems where each redundant module gives inconsistent outputs. Popular voting algorithms include majority voting, weighted voting, and inexact majority voters. Each of these techniques suffers from scenarios where agreements do not exist for the given voter inputs. This has been successfully overcome in literature using fuzzy theory. Our previous work concentrated on a neuro-fuzzy algorithm where training using the neuro system substantially improved the prediction result of the voting system. Weight training of Neural Network is sub-optimal. This study proposes to optimize the weights of the Neural Network using Artificial Bee Colony algorithm. Experimental results show the proposed system improves the decision making of the voting algorithms.Keywords: Voting algorithms, Fault tolerance, Fault masking, Neuro-Fuzzy System (NFS), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC)
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2655394 Performance Evaluation and Modeling of a Conical Plunging Jet Aerator
Authors: Surinder Deswal, D. V. S. Verma
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Aeration by a plunging water jet is an energetically attractive way to effect oxygen-transfer than conventional oxygenation systems. In the present study, a new type of conical shaped plunging aeration device is fabricated to generate hollow inclined ined plunging jets (jet plunge angle of π/3 ) to investigate its oxygen transfer capacity. The results suggest that the volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient and oxygen-transfer efficiency of the conical plunging jet aerator are competitive with other types of aeration systems. Relationships of volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient with jet power per unit volume and jet parameters are also proposed. The suggested relationships predict the volumetric oxygentransfer coefficient within a scatter of ± 15% . Further, the application of Support Vector Machines on the experimental data revealed its utility in the prediction of volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient and development of conical plunging jet aerators.
Keywords: Conical plunging jet, oxygen-transfer efficiency, support vector machines, volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1991