Search results for: Financial data analysis

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

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Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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Authors: Vijay Kumar Bajpai, Sudhir Kumar Singh

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In this study, the performance analyses of the twenty five Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPPs) used for electricity generation are carried out through various Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. Three efficiency indices are defined and pursued. During the calculation of the operational performance, energy and non-energy variables are used as input, and net electricity produced is used as desired output (Model-1). CO2 emitted to the environment is used as the undesired output (Model-2) in the computation of the pure environmental performance while in Model-3 CO2 emissions is considered as detrimental input in the calculation of operational and environmental performance. Empirical results show that most of the plants are operating in increasing returns to scale region and Mettur plant is efficient one with regards to energy use and environment. The result also indicates that the undesirable output effect is insignificant in the research sample. The present study will provide clues to plant operators towards raising the operational and environmental performance of CFPPs.

Keywords: Coal fired power plants, environmental performance, data envelopment analysis, operational performance.

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Authors: Jatin Kumar Choudhary, Naren Rayala, Abbas Eslami Kiasari, Fahimeh Jafari

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Great Britain has one of the safest road networks in the world. However, the consequences of any death or serious injury are devastating for loved ones, as well as for those who help the severely injured. This paper aims to analyse Great Britain's road safety situation and show the response measures for areas where the total damage caused by accidents can be significantly and quickly reduced. For the past 30 years, the UK has had a good record in reducing fatalities over the past 30 years, there is still a considerable number of road deaths. The government continues to scale back road deaths empowering responsible road users by identifying and prosecuting the parameters that make the roads less safe. This study represents an exploratory analysis with deep insights which could provide policy makers with invaluable insights into how accidents happen and how they can be mitigated. We use STATS19 data published by the UK government. Since we need more information about locations which is not provided in STATA19, we first expand the features of the dataset using OpenStreetMap and Visual Crossing. This paper also provides a discussion regarding new road safety methods.

Keywords: Road safety, data analysis, OpenStreetMap, feature expanding.

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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The retrofitting of existing buildings to resist the seismic loads is very important to avoid losing lives or financial disasters. The aim at retrofitting processes is increasing total structure strength by increasing stiffness or ductility ratio. In addition, the response modification factors (R) have to satisfy the code requirements for suggested retrofitting types. In this study, two types of jackets are used, i.e. full reinforced concrete jackets and surrounding steel plate jackets. The study is carried out on an existing building in Madinah by performing static pushover analysis before and after retrofitting the columns. The selected model building represents nearly all-typical structure lacks structure built before 30 years ago in Madina City, KSA. The comparison of the results indicates a good enhancement of the structure respect to the applied seismic forces. Also, the response modification factor of the RC building is evaluated for the studied cases before and after retrofitting. The design of all vertical elements (columns) is given. The results show that the design of retrofitted columns satisfied the code's design stress requirements. However, for some retrofitting types, the ductility requirements represented by response modification factor do not satisfy KSA design code (SBC- 301).

Keywords: Concrete jackets, steel jackets, RC buildings pushover analysis, non-linear analysis.

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Authors: Miyako Oulevey, David Lavallee, Naohiko Kohtake

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Retirement from sport can be stressful to athletes for many reasons. Accordingly, it is necessary to match coping strategies depending on the stressors. One of the athlete career assistance programs for Japanese top athletes in Japan, the Japan Olympic Committee Career Academy (JCA), has focused on the service contents regarding occupational supports which can be said to cope with financial and occupational stress; however, other supports such as psychological support were unclear due to the lack of psychological professionals in the JCA. Tailoring the program, it is important to match the needs of the athletes at athletic retirement with the service contents. Japanese Olympic athletes have been found to retire for different reasons. Especially female athletes who competed in the Summer Olympic Games were found to retire with psychological reasons. The purpose of this research was to investigate the types of stressors Japanese female athletes experience as a result of athletic retirement. As part of the study, 44 female retired athletes from 13 competitive sports completed an open-ended questionnaire. The KJ method was used to analyze stress experienced as a result of retirement. As a result, nine conceptualized stressors were aggregated such as “Conflict with athletic identity”, “Desire to live as an athlete”, and “Career plan after retirement”. In order to match the coping strategies according to the stressors, each stressor was classified with the four types of adjustments; psychological, social, financial, and occupational changes. As a result, the stressor relating to psychological adjustment accounted for 69.0% of coping-related needs, the financial and occupational adjustment was 21.8%, and social adjustment was 9.2%. In conclusion, coping strategies according to the stressors are suggested.

Keywords: Athletic retirement, coping, female athlete, stress.

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Authors: Petr Vcelak, Jana Kleckova

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Our Medicine-oriented research is based on a medical data set of real patients. It is a security problem to share patient private data with peoples other than clinician or hospital staff. We have to remove person identification information from medical data. The medical data without private data are available after a de-identification process for any research purposes. In this paper, we introduce an universal automatic rule-based de-identification application to do all this stuff on an heterogeneous medical data. A patient private identification is replaced by an unique identification number, even in burnedin annotation in pixel data. The identical identification is used for all patient medical data, so it keeps relationships in a data. Hospital can take an advantage of a research feedback based on results.

Keywords: DASTA, De-identification, DICOM, Health Level Seven, Medical data, OCR, Personal data

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Authors: J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, D. Blumberga

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The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included 6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of 2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP growth.

Keywords: Forecast models, hazardous waste management, sustainable development, waste management indicators.

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Authors: Kwangho Cha, Hyeyoung Cho, Sungho Kim

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As many scientific applications require large data processing, the importance of parallel I/O has been increasingly recognized. Collective I/O is one of the considerable features of parallel I/O and enables application programmers to easily handle their large data volume. In this paper we measured and analyzed the performance of original collective I/O and the subgroup method, the way of using collective I/O of MPI effectively. From the experimental results, we found that the subgroup method showed good performance with small data size.

Keywords: Collective I/O, MPI, parallel file system.

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Authors: O. Yavuz, L. Ozyilmaz

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HIV-1 genome is highly heterogeneous. Due to this variation, features of HIV-I genome is in a wide range. For this reason, the ability to infection of the virus changes depending on different chemokine receptors. From this point of view, R5 HIV viruses use CCR5 coreceptor while X4 viruses use CXCR5 and R5X4 viruses can utilize both coreceptors. Recently, in Bioinformatics, R5X4 viruses have been studied to classify by using the experiments on HIV-1 genome. In this study, R5X4 type of HIV viruses were classified using Auto Regressive (AR) model through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The statistical data of R5X4, R5 and X4 viruses was analyzed by using signal processing methods and ANNs. Accessible residues of these virus sequences were obtained and modeled by AR model since the dimension of residues is large and different from each other. Finally the pre-processed data was used to evolve various ANN structures for determining R5X4 viruses. Furthermore ROC analysis was applied to ANNs to show their real performances. The results indicate that R5X4 viruses successfully classified with high sensitivity and specificity values training and testing ROC analysis for RBF, which gives the best performance among ANN structures.

Keywords: Auto-Regressive Model, HIV, Neural Networks, ROC Analysis.

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Authors: Nazif Çalış, Murat Erişoğlu, Hamza Erol, Tayfun Servi

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In the recent works related with mixture discriminant analysis (MDA), expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate parameters of Gaussian mixtures. But, initial values of EM algorithm affect the final parameters- estimates. Also, when EM algorithm is applied two times, for the same data set, it can be give different results for the estimate of parameters and this affect the classification accuracy of MDA. Forthcoming this problem, we use Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) algorithm to estimate parameters of Gaussians mixtures in MDA that SOMN is more robust when random the initial values of the parameters are used [5]. We show effectiveness of this method on popular simulated waveform datasets and real glass data set.

Keywords: Self Organizing Mixture Network, MixtureDiscriminant Analysis, Waveform Datasets, Glass Identification, Mixture of Multivariate Normal Distributions

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

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Project planners and controllers are frequently faced with the challenge of inadequate software for the preparation of automatic project progress reports based on actual project information updates. They usually make dashboards in Microsoft Excel, which is local and not applicable online. Another shortcoming is that Microsoft project does not store the data in database, so the data cannot automatically be imported from Microsoft Project into Microsoft Excel. This study aimed to propose a model for the preparation of reports on automatic online project progress based on actual project information updates by the integration of Primavera P6, SQL database, and Power BI (Business Intelligence) for a construction project. The designed model could be applicable to project planners and controller agents by enabling them to prepare project reports automatically and immediately after updating the project schedule using actual information. To develop the model, the data were entered into P6, and the information was stored on the SQL database. The proposed model could prepare a wide range of reports, such as earned value management, Human Resource (HR) reports, and financial, physical, and risk reports automatically on the Power BI application. Furthermore, the reports could be published and shared online.

Keywords: Primavera P6, SQL, Power BI, Earned Value Management, Integration Management.

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Authors: Romain Ben Taleb, Aurélie Montarnal, Matthieu Lauras, Mathieu Dahan, Romain Miclo

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To be competitive and sustainable, any company has to maximize its value. However, unlike listed companies that can assess their values based on market shares, most Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are non-listed cannot have direct and live access to this critical information. Traditional accounting reports only give limited insights to SME decision-makers about the real impact of their day-to-day decisions on the company’s performance and value. Most of the time, an SME’s financial valuation is made one time a year as the associated process is time and resource-consuming, requiring several months and external expertise to be completed. To solve this issue, we propose in this paper a value-oriented metamodel that enables real-time and dynamic assessment of the SME’s value based on the large definition of their assets. These assets cover a wider scope of resources of the company and better account for immaterial assets. The proposal, which is illustrated in a case study, discusses the benefits of incorporating assets in the SME valuation.

Keywords: SME, metamodel, decision support system, financial valuation.

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Authors: V Krishnaveni, S Jayaraman, K Ramadoss

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The electrical potentials generated during eye movements and blinks are one of the main sources of artifacts in Electroencephalogram (EEG) recording and can propagate much across the scalp, masking and distorting brain signals. In recent times, signal separation algorithms are used widely for removing artifacts from the observed EEG data. In this paper, a recently introduced signal separation algorithm Mutual Information based Least dependent Component Analysis (MILCA) is employed to separate ocular artifacts from EEG. The aim of MILCA is to minimize the Mutual Information (MI) between the independent components (estimated sources) under a pure rotation. Performance of this algorithm is compared with eleven popular algorithms (Infomax, Extended Infomax, Fast ICA, SOBI, TDSEP, JADE, OGWE, MS-ICA, SHIBBS, Kernel-ICA, and RADICAL) for the actual independence and uniqueness of the estimated source components obtained for different sets of EEG data with ocular artifacts by using a reliable MI Estimator. Results show that MILCA is best in separating the ocular artifacts and EEG and is recommended for further analysis.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram, Ocular Artifacts (OA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Mutual Information (MI), Mutual Information based Least dependent Component Analysis(MILCA)

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Authors: Medya Fathi

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When public transportation projects were delivered through design-bid-build and later design-build, governments found a serious issue: inadequate funding. With population growth, governments began to develop new arrangements in which the private sectors were involved to cut the financial burden. This arrangement, Public-Private Partnership (PPP), has its own risks; however, performance outputs can motivate or discourage its use. On top of such output are time and budget, which can be affected by the type of project delivery methods. Project completion within or ahead of schedule as well as within or under budget is among any owner’s objectives. With a higher application of PPP in the highway industry in the US and insufficient research, the current study addresses the schedule and cost performance of PPP highway projects and determines which one outperforms the other. To meet this objective, after collecting performance data of all PPP projects, schedule growth and cost growth are calculated, and finally, statistical analysis is conducted to evaluate the PPP performance. The results show that PPP highway projects on average have saved time and cost; however, the main benefit is a faster delivery rather than an under-budget completion. This study can provide better insights to understand PPP highways’ performance and assist practitioners in applying PPP for transportation projects with the opportunity to save time and cost.

Keywords: Cost, delivery method, highway, public-private partnership, schedule, transportation.

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Authors: Anna Lower, Michal Lower, Robert Masztalski, Agnieszka Szumilas

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The paper presents a method in which the expert knowledge is applied to fuzzy inference model. Even a less experienced person could benefit from the use of such a system, e.g. urban planners, officials. The analysis result is obtained in a very short time, so a large number of the proposed locations can also be verified in a short time. The proposed method is intended for testing of locations of car parks in a city. The paper shows selected examples of locations of the P&R facilities in cities planning to introduce the P&R. The analyses of existing objects are also shown in the paper and they are confronted with the opinions of the system users, with particular emphasis on unpopular locations. The results of the analyses are compared to expert analysis of the P&R facilities location that was outsourced by the city and the opinions about existing facilities users that were expressed on social networking sites. The obtained results are consistent with actual users’ feedback. The proposed method proves to be good, but does not require the involvement of a large experts team and large financial contributions for complicated research. The method also provides an opportunity to show the alternative location of P&R facilities. Although the results of the method are approximate, they are not worse than results of analysis of employed experts. The advantage of this method is ease of use, which simplifies the professional expert analysis. The ability of analyzing a large number of alternative locations gives a broader view on the problem. It is valuable that the arduous analysis of the team of people can be replaced by the model's calculation. According to the authors, the proposed method is also suitable for implementation on a GIS platform.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic inference, P&R facilities, P&R location.

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Authors: M. Boukhrouk, R. Ed-Dali

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Outbound tourism in Morocco, as in the majority of developing countries, reveals some of the aspects of inequality between the north and the south. Considered by some researchers as one of the facets of the development crisis, access to tourism and especially international tourism is a chance for a small minority with financial means, while the vast portions of the population dream rather of immigrating to a developed country for the sake of improving their standard of living. The right to travel is also limited by visa requirements, procedures in host countries, security and technical measures and creates discrimination in the practice of tourism. These conditions do not seem to be favorable to the democratization of the practice of international tourism for the populations of the southern countries. This paper is a contribution to the reading of the trends of outbound tourism in developing countries through the example of Morocco. It highlights the different aspects of Moroccan outbound tourism, destinations and the behavior of tourists through an analysis of the offer of a sample of 50 travel agencies. In the same vein, it offers a reading grid of the possibilities offered for the development of outbound tourism and the various existing obstacles to the democratization of international outbound tourism in the southern countries. This reading reveals the transformation in the behavior of Moroccan international tourists as well as the profound changes in Moroccan society, through a model of statistical analysis.

Keywords: Demand, Hajj, Morocco, outbound tourism, tendency, Umrah.

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Authors: Mehmet Ozcan

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This study is designed to investigate errors emerged in written texts produced by 30 Turkish EFL learners with an explanatory, and thus, qualitative perspective. Erroneous language elements were identified by the researcher first and then their grammaticality and intelligibility were checked by five native speakers of English. The analysis of the data showed that it is difficult to claim that an error stems from only one single factor since different features of an error are triggered by different factors. Our findings revealed two different types of errors: those which stem from the interference of L1 with L2 and those which are developmental ones. The former type contains more global errors whereas the errors in latter type are more intelligible.

Keywords: Contrastive analysis, Error analysis, Language acquisition, Language transfer, Turkish

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Authors: Sawarni Hasibuan, Juliza Hidayati

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Competitiveness and sustainability issues not only put pressure on big companies, but also small and medium enterprises (SMEs). SMEs Batik Bogor is one of the local culture-based creative industries in Bogor city which is also dealing with the issue of sustainability. The purpose of this research is to develop framework of sustainability at SMEs Batik Indonesia case of SMEs Batik Bogor by integrating innovation of cleaner production in its supply chain. The approach used is desk study, field survey, in-depth interviews, and benchmarking best practices of SMEs sustainability. In-depth interviews involve stakeholders to identify the needs and standards of sustainability of SMEs Batik. Data analysis was done by benchmarking method, Multi Dimension Scaling (MDS) method, and Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat (SWOT) analysis. The results recommend the framework of sustainability for SMEs Batik in Indonesia. The sustainability status of SMEs Batik Bogor is classified as Moderate Sustainable. Factors that support the sustainability of SMEs Batik Bogor such is a strong commitment of top management in adopting cleaner production innovation and creativity approach. Successful cleaner production innovations are implemented primarily in the substitution of dye materials from toxic to non-toxic, reducing the intensity of non-renewable energy use, as well as the reuse and recycle of solid waste. “Mosaic Batik” is one of the innovations of solid waste utilization of batik waste produced by company R&D center that gives benefit to three pillars of sustainability, that is financial benefit, environmental benefit, and social benefit. The sustainability of SMEs Batik Bogor cannot be separated from the support of Bogor City Government which proactively facilitates the promotion of sustainable innovation produced by SMEs Batik Bogor.

Keywords: Cleaner production innovation, creativity, SMEs Batik, sustainability supply chain.

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Authors: I. M. Abd Rahim, H. Abdul Rahim, R. Ghazali

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There is numerous non-invasive blood glucose measurement technique developed by researchers, and near infrared (NIR) is the potential technique nowadays. However, there are some disagreements on the optimal wavelength range that is suitable to be used as the reference of the glucose substance in the blood. This paper focuses on the experimental data collection technique and also the analysis method used to analyze the data gained from the experiment. The selection of suitable linear and non-linear model structure is essential in prediction system, as the system developed need to be conceivably accurate.

Keywords: Invasive, linear, near-infrared (Nir), non-invasive, non-linear, prediction system.

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Authors: Kittisak Kerdprasop, Nittaya Kerdprasop

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Frequent pattern discovery over data stream is a hard problem because a continuously generated nature of stream does not allow a revisit on each data element. Furthermore, pattern discovery process must be fast to produce timely results. Based on these requirements, we propose an approximate approach to tackle the problem of discovering frequent patterns over continuous stream. Our approximation algorithm is intended to be applied to process a stream prior to the pattern discovery process. The results of approximate frequent pattern discovery have been reported in the paper.

Keywords: Frequent pattern discovery, Approximate algorithm, Data stream analysis.

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Authors: Ke Lu, Tetsuya Furukawa

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Data objects are usually organized hierarchically, and the relations between them are analyzed based on a corresponding concept hierarchy. The relation between data objects, for example how similar they are, are usually analyzed based on the conceptual distance in the hierarchy. If a node is an ancestor of another node, it is enough to analyze how close they are by calculating the distance vertically. However, if there is not such relation between two nodes, the vertical distance cannot express their relation explicitly. This paper tries to fill this gap by improving the analysis method for data objects based on hierarchy. The contributions of this paper include: (1) proposing an improved method to evaluate the vertical distance between concepts; (2) defining the concept horizontal distance and a method to calculate the horizontal distance; and (3) discussing the methods to confine a range by the horizontal distance and the vertical distance, and evaluating the relation between concepts.

Keywords: Concept Hierarchy, Horizontal Distance, Relation Analysis, Vertical Distance

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Authors: P. Kowalska, P. Gabka, K. Kamieniarz, M. Kamieniarz, W. Stryla, P. Guzik, T. Krauze

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We have developed a computer program consisting of 6 subtests assessing the children hand dexterity applicable in the rehabilitation medicine. We have carried out a normative study on a representative sample of 285 children aged from 7 to 15 (mean age 11.3) and we have proposed clinical standards for three age groups (7-9, 9-11, 12-15 years). We have shown statistical significance of differences among the corresponding mean values of the task time completion. We have also found a strong correlation between the task time completion and the age of the subjects, as well as we have performed the test-retest reliability checks in the sample of 84 children, giving the high values of the Pearson coefficients for the dominant and non-dominant hand in the range 0.740.97 and 0.620.93, respectively. A new MATLAB-based programming tool aiming at analysis of cardiologic RR intervals and blood pressure descriptors, is worked out, too. For each set of data, ten different parameters are extracted: 2 in time domain, 4 in frequency domain and 4 in Poincaré plot analysis. In addition twelve different parameters of baroreflex sensitivity are calculated. All these data sets can be visualized in time domain together with their power spectra and Poincaré plots. If available, the respiratory oscillation curves can be also plotted for comparison. Another application processes biological data obtained from BLAST analysis.

Keywords: Biomedical data base processing, Computer software, Hand dexterity, Heart rate and blood pressure variability.

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Authors: Qihe Li, Yupin Luo

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Camera calibration plays an important role in the domain of the analysis of sports video. Considering soccer video, in most cases, the cross-points can be used for calibration at the center of the soccer field are not sufficient, so this paper introduces a new automatic camera calibration algorithm focus on solving this problem by using the properties of images of the center circle, halfway line and a touch line. After the theoretical analysis, a practicable automatic algorithm is proposed. Very little information used though, results of experiments with both synthetic data and real data show that the algorithm is applicable.

Keywords: Absolute conic, camera calibration, circular points, line at infinity.

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Authors: M. Bosques-Perez, W. Izquierdo, H. Martin, L. Deng, J. Rodriguez, T. Yan, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, M. Adjouadi

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Aerial imagery is a powerful tool when it comes to analyzing temporal changes in ecosystems and extracting valuable information from the observed scene. It allows us to identify and assess various elements such as objects, structures, textures, waterways, and shadows. To extract meaningful information, multispectral cameras capture data across different wavelength bands of the electromagnetic spectrum. In this study, the collected multispectral aerial images were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) to identify independent and uncorrelated components or features that extend beyond the visible spectrum captured in standard RGB images. The results demonstrate that these principal components contain unique characteristics specific to certain wavebands, enabling effective object identification and image segmentation.

Keywords: Big data, image processing, multispectral, principal component analysis.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, D. F. Percy

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The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease. 

Keywords: Dengue disease, disease mapping, numerical analysis, SIR-SI differential equations.

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Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Zhiyuan Liu

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First of all, the carbon trading price and trading volume in Shanghai are transformed by Fourier transform, and the frequency response diagram is obtained. Then, the frequency response diagram is analyzed and the Blackman filter is designed. The Blackman filter is used to filter, and the carbon trading time domain and frequency response diagram are obtained. After wavelet analysis, the carbon trading data were processed; respectively, we got the average value for each 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, and 60 days. Finally, the data are used as input of the Back Propagation Neural Network model for prediction.

Keywords: Shanghai carbon trading, carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, wavelet analysis, BP neural network model.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

This paper presents a simplified version of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a conventional approach to evaluating the performance and ranking of competitive objects characterized by two groups of factors acting in opposite directions: inputs and outputs. DEA with a Perfect Object (DEA PO) augments the group of actual objects with a virtual Perfect Object - the one having greatest outputs and smallest inputs. It allows for obtaining an explicit analytical solution and making a step to an absolute efficiency. This paper develops this approach further and introduces a DEA model with Partially Perfect Objects. DEA PPO consecutively eliminates the smallest relative inputs or greatest relative outputs, and applies DEA PO to the reduced collections of indicators. The partial efficiency scores are combined to get the weighted efficiency score. The computational scheme remains simple, like that of DEA PO, but the advantage of the DEA PPO is taking into account all of the inputs and outputs for each actual object. Firm evaluation is considered as an example.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Perfect object, Partially perfect object, Partial efficiency, Explicit solution, Simplified algorithm.

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Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

Abstract:

Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil and climate parameters of the fig orchards are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (Principal Component Analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis Metric for Clustering) and K-nearest Neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Roland S. Nattermann, Reiner Anderl

Abstract:

Existing proceeding-models for the development of mechatronic systems provide a largely parallel action in the detailed development. This parallel approach is to take place also largely independent of one another in the various disciplines involved. An approach for a new proceeding-model provides a further development of existing models to use for the development of Adaptronic Systems. This approach is based on an intermediate integration and an abstract modeling of the adaptronic system. Based on this system-model a simulation of the global system behavior, due to external and internal factors or Forces is developed. For the intermediate integration a special data management system is used. According to the presented approach this data management system has a number of functions that are not part of the "normal" PDM functionality. Therefore a concept for a new data management system for the development of Adaptive system is presented in this paper. This concept divides the functions into six layers. In the first layer a system model is created, which divides the adaptronic system based on its components and the various technical disciplines. Moreover, the parameters and properties of the system are modeled and linked together with the requirements and the system model. The modeled parameters and properties result in a network which is analyzed in the second layer. From this analysis necessary adjustments to individual components for specific manipulation of the system behavior can be determined. The third layer contains an automatic abstract simulation of the system behavior. This simulation is a precursor for network analysis and serves as a filter. By the network analysis and simulation changes to system components are examined and necessary adjustments to other components are calculated. The other layers of the concept treat the automatic calculation of system reliability, the "normal" PDM-functionality and the integration of discipline-specific data into the system model. A prototypical implementation of an appropriate data management with the addition of an automatic system development is being implemented using the data management system ENOVIA SmarTeam V5 and the simulation system MATLAB.

Keywords: Adaptronic, Data-Management, LOEWE-CentreAdRIA

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