Search results for: Tomato yields prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1280

Search results for: Tomato yields prediction

1250 On Improving Breast Cancer Prediction Using GRNN-CP

Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: Neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression.

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1249 Selective Intra Prediction Mode Decision for H.264/AVC Encoders

Authors: Jun Sung Park, Hyo Jung Song

Abstract:

H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standards such as MPEG-2, but computational complexity is increased significantly. In this paper, we propose selective mode decision schemes for fast intra prediction mode selection. The objective is to reduce the computational complexity of the H.264/AVC encoder without significant rate-distortion performance degradation. In our proposed schemes, the intra prediction complexity is reduced by limiting the luma and chroma prediction modes using the directional information of the 16×16 prediction mode. Experimental results are presented to show that the proposed schemes reduce the complexity by up to 78% maintaining the similar PSNR quality with about 1.46% bit rate increase in average.

Keywords: Video encoding, H.264, Intra prediction.

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1248 Diesel Fault Prediction Based on Optimized Gray Neural Network

Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

Abstract:

In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Neural network, GM (1.5), Genetic algorithm, GBPGA.

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1247 Intra Prediction using Weighted Average of Pixel Values According to Prediction Direction

Authors: Kibaek Kim, Dongjin Jung, Jinik Jang, Jechang Jeong

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed a method to reduce quantization error. In order to reduce quantization error, low pass filtering is applied on neighboring samples of current block in H.264/AVC. However, it has a weak point that low pass filtering is performed regardless of prediction direction. Since it doesn-t consider prediction direction, it may not reduce quantization error effectively. Proposed method considers prediction direction for low pass filtering and uses a threshold condition for reducing flag bit. We compare our experimental result with conventional method in H.264/AVC and we can achieve the average bit-rate reduction of 1.534% by applying the proposed method. Bit-rate reduction between 0.580% and 3.567% are shown for experimental results.

Keywords: Coding efficiency, H.264/AVC, Intra prediction, Low pass filter

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1246 A Comparison of Grey Model and Fuzzy Predictive Model for Time Series

Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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1245 Development of Neural Network Prediction Model of Energy Consumption

Authors: Maryam Jamela Ismail, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Idris Ismail

Abstract:

In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper provides a comprehensive review on published research on the energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square Error.

Keywords: Energy Prediction, Multilayer Feedforward, Levenberg-Marquardt, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

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1244 Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Support Vector Machine

Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

Abstract:

In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, Water Temperature, and Conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Water quality, predication DO, Support Vector Machine.

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1243 Analysis of Physicochemical Properties on Prediction of R5, X4 and R5X4 HIV-1 Coreceptor Usage

Authors: Kai-Ti Hsu, Hui-Ling Huang, Chun-Wei Tung, Yi-Hsiung Chen, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Bioinformatics methods for predicting the T cell coreceptor usage from the array of membrane protein of HIV-1 are investigated. In this study, we aim to propose an effective prediction method for dealing with the three-class classification problem of CXCR4 (X4), CCR5 (R5) and CCR5/CXCR4 (R5X4). We made efforts in investigating the coreceptor prediction problem as follows: 1) proposing a feature set of informative physicochemical properties which is cooperated with SVM to achieve high prediction test accuracy of 81.48%, compared with the existing method with accuracy of 70.00%; 2) establishing a large up-to-date data set by increasing the size from 159 to 1225 sequences to verify the proposed prediction method where the mean test accuracy is 88.59%, and 3) analyzing the set of 14 informative physicochemical properties to further understand the characteristics of HIV-1coreceptors.

Keywords: Coreceptor, genetic algorithm, HIV-1, SVM, physicochemical properties, prediction.

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1242 Cloning, Expression and Protein Purification of AV1 Gene of Okra Leaf Curl Virus Egyptian Isolate and Genetic Diversity between Whitefly and Different Plant Hosts

Authors: Dalia. G. Aseel

Abstract:

Begomoviruses are economically important plant viruses that infect dicotyledonous plants and exclusively transmitted by the whitefly Bemisia tabaci. Here, replicative form was isolated from Okra, Cotton, Tomato plants and whitefly infected with Begomoviruses. Using coat protein specific primers (AV1), the viral infection was verified with amplicon at 450 bp. The sequence of OLCuV-AV1 gene was recorded and received an accession number (FJ441605) from Genebank. The phylogenetic tree of OLCuV was closely related to Okra leaf curl virus previously isolated from Cameroon and USA with nucleotide sequence identity of 92%. The protein purification was carried out using His-Tag methodology by using Affinity Chromatography. The purified protein was separated on SDS-PAGE analysis and an enriched expected size of band at 30 kDa was observed. Furthermore, RAPD and SDS-PAGE were used to detect genetic variability between different hosts of okra leaf curl virus (OLCuV), cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV), tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCuV) and the whitefly vector. Finally, the present study would help to understand the relationship between the whitefly and different economical crops in Egypt.

Keywords: Begomovirus, AV1 gene, sequence, cloning, whitefly, okra, cotton, tomato, RAPD, phylogenetic tree and SDS-PAGE.

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1241 Interactive of Calcium, Potassium and Dynamic Unequal Salt Distribution on the Growth of Tomato in Hydroponic System

Authors: Mohammad Koushafar, Amir Hossein Khoshgoftarmanesh

Abstract:

Due to water shortage, application of saline water for irrigation is an urgent in agriculture. In this study the effect of calcium and potassium application as additive in saline root media for reduce salinity adverse effects was investigated on tomato growth in a hydroponic system with unequal distribution of salts in the root media, which was divided in to two equal parts containing full Johnson nutrient solution and 40 mMNaCl solution, alone or in combination with KCl (6 mM), CaCl2 (4 mM), K+Ca (3+2 mM) or half-strength Johnson nutrient solution. The root splits were exchanged every 7 days. Results showed that addition of calcium, calcium-potassium and nutrition elements equivalent to half the concentration of Johnson formula to the saline-half of culture media minimized the reduction in plant growth caused by NaCl, although addition of potassium to culture media wasn’t effective. The greatest concentration of sodium was observed at the shoot of treatments which had smallest growth. According to the results of this study, in case of dynamic and non-uniform distribution of salts in the root media, by addition of additive to the saline solution, it would be possible to use of saline water with no significant growth reduction.

Keywords: Calcium, Hydroponic, Local salinity, Potassium, Saline water, Tomato.

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1240 An Improved Prediction Model of Ozone Concentration Time Series Based On Chaotic Approach

Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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1239 Two States Mapping Based Neural Network Model for Decreasing of Prediction Residual Error

Authors: Insung Jung, lockjo Koo, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, prediction, timeseries, computer aided prediction.

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1238 Influence of Reaction Temperature and Water Content on Wheat Straw Pyrolysis

Authors: N.Ibrahim, Peter A. Jensen, K. Dam-Johansen, Roshafima.R. Ali, Rafiziana.M. Kasmani

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of reaction temperature and wheat straw moisture content on the pyrolysis product yields, in the temperature range of 475-575 °C. Samples of straw with moisture contents from 1.5 wt % to 15.0 wt % were fed to a bench scale Pyrolysis Centrifuge Reactor (PCR). The experimental results show that the changes in straw moisture content have no significant effect on the distribution of pyrolysis product yields. The maximum bio-oil yields approximately 60 (wt %, on dry ash free feedstock basis) was observed around 525 °C - 550 °C for all straw moisture levels. The water content in the wet straw bio-oil was the highest. The heating value of bio-oil and solid char were measured and the percentages of its energy distribution were calculated. The energy distributions of bio-oil, char and gas were 56- 69 % 24-33 %, and 2-19 %, respectively.

Keywords: Flash pyrolysis, moisture content, wheat straw, biooil.

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1237 Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Reet Kamal Kaur

Abstract:

Protein structure determination and prediction has been a focal research subject in the field of bioinformatics due to the importance of protein structure in understanding the biological and chemical activities of organisms. The experimental methods used by biotechnologists to determine the structures of proteins demand sophisticated equipment and time. A host of computational methods are developed to predict the location of secondary structure elements in proteins for complementing or creating insights into experimental results. However, prediction accuracies of these methods rarely exceed 70%.

Keywords: Protein, Secondary Structure, Prediction, DNA, RNA.

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1236 Stock Movement Prediction Using Price Factor and Deep Learning

Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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1235 On the Prediction of Transmembrane Helical Segments in Membrane Proteins

Authors: Yu Bin, Zhang Yan

Abstract:

The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1F88 was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. One group of test data sets that contain total 19 protein sequences was utilized to access the effect of this method. Compared with the prediction results of DAS, PRED-TMR2, SOSUI, HMMTOP2.0 and TMHMM2.0, the obtained results indicate that the presented method has higher prediction accuracy.

Keywords: hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembranehelical segments, wavelet transform

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1234 Customer Churn Prediction: A Cognitive Approach

Authors: Damith Senanayake, Lakmal Muthugama, Laksheen Mendis, Tiroshan Madushanka

Abstract:

Customer churn prediction is one of the most useful areas of study in customer analytics. Due to the enormous amount of data available for such predictions, machine learning and data mining have been heavily used in this domain. There exist many machine learning algorithms directly applicable for the problem of customer churn prediction, and here, we attempt to experiment on a novel approach by using a cognitive learning based technique in an attempt to improve the results obtained by using a combination of supervised learning methods, with cognitive unsupervised learning methods.

Keywords: Growing Self Organizing Maps, Kernel Methods, Churn Prediction.

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1233 Epileptic Seizure Prediction by Exploiting Signal Transitions Phenomena

Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

Abstract:

A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/ deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, Seizure, Phase Correlation, Fluctuation, Deviation.

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1232 Case Study of the Roma Tomato Distribution Chain: A Dynamic Interface for an Agricultural Enterprise in Mexico

Authors: Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva, Manuel A. Valenzuela L., José G. Oshima C., Arnulfo A. Naranjo-Flores

Abstract:

From August to December of 2016, a diagnostic and strategic planning study was carried out on the supply chain of the company Agropecuaria GABO S.A. de C.V. The final product of the study was the development of the strategic plan and a project portfolio to meet the demands of the three links in the supply chain of the Roma tomato exported annually to the United States of America. In this project, the strategic objective of ensuring the proper handling of the product was selected and one of the goals associated with this was the employment of quantitative methods to support decision making. Considering the antecedents, the objective of this case study was to develop a model to analyze the behavioral dynamics in the distribution chain, from the logistics of storage and shipment of Roma tomato in 81-case pallets (11.5 kg per case), to the two pre-cooling rooms and eventual loading onto transports, seeking to reduce the bottleneck and the associated costs by means of a dynamic interface. The methodology used was that of system dynamics, considering four phases that were adapted to the purpose of the study: 1) the conceptualization phase; 2) the formulation phase; 3) the evaluation phase; and 4) the communication phase. The main practical conclusions lead to the possibility of reducing both the bottlenecks in the cooling rooms and the costs by simulating scenarios and modifying certain policies. Furthermore, the creation of the dynamic interface between the model and the stakeholders was achieved by generating interaction with buttons and simple instructions that allow making modifications and observing diverse behaviors.

Keywords: Agrilogistics, distribution, scenarios, system dynamics.

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1231 Enriching Egg Yolk with Carotenoids and Phenols

Authors: Amar Benakmoum, Rosa Larid, Sofiane Zidani

Abstract:

Dried tomato peel (DTP) was tested in vivo (n=10) in 42 week-old laying hens at rates of 0, 40, 70, 100 and 130g/kg DM feed. Laying hens were fed in group 120 g DM/day/animal for 26 days. After 21 days, feed intake was not affected after DTP incorporation (97% of the offered feed in the five groups). Laying rate was not significantly different after DTP incorporation at 4 and 10% from the control group. Egg yolk resulting from DTP-enriched diets, contained lower amounts of cholesterol (14 to 17mg/g) and triglyceride (188mg/g) compared to the control group (22 and 241 mg/g, respectively) (P<0.0001). After DTP-enriched diets, content in total phenol was 2.0 to 3.6-fold higher, β-carotene 1.7 to 2.7-fold higher, and lycopene increased between 26.5 and 42.8μg/g compared to the control (P<0.0001). The optimal incorporation rate was 7% DTP.

Keywords: Carotenoid, dried tomato peel, lycopene, laying hens, phenols.

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1230 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Chevron Rubber Spring for Railway Vehicle

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.

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1229 Using Probe Person Data for Travel Mode Detection

Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

Abstract:

Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: Accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, Mode Prediction, Support vector Machine.

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1228 Reasons for Non-Applicability of Software Entropy Metrics for Bug Prediction in Android

Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

Abstract:

Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: Android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, Software Entropy.

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1227 A Neuro-Automata Decision Support System for the Control of Late Blight in Tomato Crops

Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition.

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1226 Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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1225 Protein Residue Contact Prediction using Support Vector Machine

Authors: Chan Weng Howe, Mohd Saberi Mohamad

Abstract:

Protein residue contact map is a compact representation of secondary structure of protein. Due to the information hold in the contact map, attentions from researchers in related field were drawn and plenty of works have been done throughout the past decade. Artificial intelligence approaches have been widely adapted in related works such as neural networks, genetic programming, and Hidden Markov model as well as support vector machine. However, the performance of the prediction was not generalized which probably depends on the data used to train and generate the prediction model. This situation shown the importance of the features or information used in affecting the prediction performance. In this research, support vector machine was used to predict protein residue contact map on different combination of features in order to show and analyze the effectiveness of the features.

Keywords: contact map, protein residue contact, support vector machine, protein structure prediction

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1224 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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1223 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network

Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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1222 Spatial Time Series Models for Rice and Cassava Yields Based On Bayesian Linear Mixed Models

Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Linear mixed model, Multivariate conditional autoregressive model, Spatial time series.

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1221 Effect of Partial Rootzone Drying on Growth, Yield and Biomass Partitioning of a Soilless Tomato Crop

Authors: N. Affi, A. El Fadl, M. El Otmani, M.C. Benismail, L.M. Idrissi

Abstract:

The object of the present research was to assess the effects of partial rootzone drying (PRD) on tomato growth, productivity, biomass allocation and water use efficiency (WUE). Plants were grown under greenhouse, on a sand substrate. Three treatments were applied: a control that was fully and conventionally irrigated, PRD-70 and PRD-50 in which, respectively, 70% and 50% of water requirements were supplied using PRD. Alternation of irrigation between the two root halves took place each three days. The Control produces the highest total yield (252tons/ha). In terms of fruit number, PRD-50 showed 23% and 16% less fruits than PRD-70 and control, respectively. Fruit size was affected by treatment with PRD-50 treatment producing 66% and 53% more class 3 fruits than, control and PRD-70, respectively. For plant growth, the difference was not significant when comparing control to PRD-70 but was significant when comparing PRD-70 and control to PRD-50. No effect was on total biomass but root biomass was higher for stressed plants compared to control. WUE was 66% and 27% higher for PRD-50 and PRD-70 respectively compared to control.

Keywords: Biomass, growth, partial rootzone drying, water use efficiency yield.

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