Search results for: Multi-objective decision making techniques
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4304

Search results for: Multi-objective decision making techniques

4274 A Straightforward Approach for Determining the Weights of Decision Makers Based on Angle Cosine and Projection Method

Authors: Qiang Yang, Ping-An Du

Abstract:

Group decision making with multiple attribute has attracted intensive concern in the decision analysis area. This paper assumes that the contributions of all the decision makers (DMs) are not equal to the decision process based on different knowledge and experience in group setting. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel approach to determine weights of DMs in the group decision making problems. In this paper, the weights of DMs are determined in the group decision environment via angle cosine and projection method. First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined as the ideal decision. After that, we define the weight of each decision maker (DM) by aggregating the angle cosine and projection between individual decision and ideal decision with associated direction indicator μ. By using the weights of DMs, all individual decisions are aggregated into a collective decision. Further, the preference order of alternatives is ranked in accordance with the overall row value of collective decision. Finally, an example in a chemical company is provided to illustrate the developed approach.

Keywords: Angel cosine, ideal decision, projection method, weights of decision makers.

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4273 A Contribution to the Application of the Structural Analysis Method in Entrepreneurial Practice

Authors: Kamila Janovská, Šárka Vilamová, Petr Besta, Iveta Vozňáková, Roman Kozel

Abstract:

Quantitative methods of economic decision-making as the methodological base of the so called operational research represent an important set of tools for managing complex economic systems,both at the microeconomic level and on the macroeconomic scale. Mathematical models of controlled and controlling processes allow, by means of artificial experiments, obtaining information foroptimalor optimum approaching managerial decision-making.The quantitative methods of economic decision-making usually include a methodology known as structural analysis -an analysisof interdisciplinary production-consumption relations.

Keywords: economic decision-making, mathematical methods, structuralanalysis, technical coefficient

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4272 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Neutrosophic Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fuzzy set and intuitionistic fuzzy set are dealing with the imprecision and uncertainty inherent in a complex decision problem. However, sometimes these theories are not sufficient to model indeterminate and inconsistent information encountered in real-life problems. To overcome this insufficiency, the neutrosophic set, which is useful in practical applications, is proposed, triangular neutrosophic numbers and trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers are examined, their definitions and applications are discussed. In this study, a decision making algorithm is developed using neutrosophic set processes and an application is given in fighter aircraft selection as an example of a decision making problem. The estimation of the fighter aircraft selection with the neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is examined.  

Keywords: neutrosophic set, multiple criteria decision making analysis, fighter aircraft selection, MCDMA, neutrosophic numbers

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4271 Diversity and Public Decision Making

Authors: Karin Hansson, Göran Cars, Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg, Aron Larsson

Abstract:

Within the realm of e-government, the development has moved towards testing new means for democratic decisionmaking, like e-panels, electronic discussion forums, and polls. Although such new developments seem promising, they are not problem-free, and the outcomes are seldom used in the subsequent formal political procedures. Nevertheless, process models offer promising potential when it comes to structuring and supporting transparency of decision processes in order to facilitate the integration of the public into decision-making procedures in a reasonable and manageable way. Based on real-life cases of urban planning processes in Sweden, we present an outline for an integrated framework for public decision making to: a) provide tools for citizens to organize discussion and create opinions; b) enable governments, authorities, and institutions to better analyse these opinions; and c) enable governments to account for this information in planning and societal decision making by employing a process model for structured public decision making.

Keywords: Negotiation games, Agenda setting, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Elicitation method.

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4270 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique for selecting fighter aircraft for the national air force. The selection of military aircraft is a process consisting of contradictory goals and objectives. When a modern air force needs to choose fighter aircraft to upgrade existing fleets, a multiple criteria decision making analysis and scenario planning for defense acquisition has been put forward. The selection of fighter aircraft for the air defense force is a strategic decision making process, since the purchase or lease of fighter jets, maintenance and operating costs and having a fleet is the biggest cost for the air force. Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods are effectively applied to facilitate decision making from various available options. The selection criteria were determined using the literature on the problem of fighter aircraft selection. The selection of fighter aircraft to be purchased for the air defense forces is handled using a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique that also determines a suitable methodological approach for the defense procurement and fleet upgrade planning process. The aim of this study is to originate an approach to evaluate fighter aircraft alternatives, Su-35, F-35, and TF-X (MMU), based on technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).

Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Su-35, F-35, TF-X (MMU)

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4269 Standard Fuzzy Sets for Aircraft Selection using Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This study uses two-dimensional standard fuzzy sets to enhance multiple criteria decision-making analysis for passenger aircraft selection, allowing decision-makers to express judgments with uncertain and vague information. Using two-dimensional fuzzy numbers, three decision makers evaluated three aircraft alternatives according to seven decision criteria. A validity analysis based on two-dimensional standard fuzzy weighted geometric (SFWG) and two-dimensional standard fuzzy weighted average (SFGA) operators is conducted to test the proposed approach's robustness and effectiveness in the fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) evaluation process. 

Keywords: Standard fuzzy sets (SFSs), aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs), SFWG, SFGA, MCDM

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4268 The Relevance of Data Warehousing and Data Mining in the Field of Evidence-based Medicine to Support Healthcare Decision Making

Authors: Nevena Stolba, A Min Tjoa

Abstract:

Evidence-based medicine is a new direction in modern healthcare. Its task is to prevent, diagnose and medicate diseases using medical evidence. Medical data about a large patient population is analyzed to perform healthcare management and medical research. In order to obtain the best evidence for a given disease, external clinical expertise as well as internal clinical experience must be available to the healthcare practitioners at right time and in the right manner. External evidence-based knowledge can not be applied directly to the patient without adjusting it to the patient-s health condition. We propose a data warehouse based approach as a suitable solution for the integration of external evidence-based data sources into the existing clinical information system and data mining techniques for finding appropriate therapy for a given patient and a given disease. Through integration of data warehousing, OLAP and data mining techniques in the healthcare area, an easy to use decision support platform, which supports decision making process of care givers and clinical managers, is built. We present three case studies, which show, that a clinical data warehouse that facilitates evidence-based medicine is a reliable, powerful and user-friendly platform for strategic decision making, which has a great relevance for the practice and acceptance of evidence-based medicine.

Keywords: data mining, data warehousing, decision-support systems, evidence-based medicine.

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4267 Tools and Techniques in Risk Assessment in Public Risk Management Organisations

Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

Abstract:

Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: Decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques.

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4266 Aircraft Selection Using Preference Optimization Programming (POP)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

A multiple-criteria decision support system is proposed for the best aircraft selection decision. Various strategic, economic, environmental, and risk-related factors can directly or indirectly influence this choice, and they should be taken into account in the decision-making process. The paper suggests a multiple-criteria analysis to aid in the airline management's decision-making process when choosing an appropriate aircraft. In terms of the suggested approach, an integrated entropic preference optimization programming (POP) for fleet modeling risk analysis is applied. The findings of the study of multiple criteria analysis indicate that the A321(neo) aircraft type is the best alternative in this particular optimization instance. The proposed methodology can be applied to other complex engineering problems involving multiple criteria analysis.

Keywords: Aircraft selection, decision making, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, entropic weight method, TOPSIS, WSM, WPM

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4265 Unmanned Combat Aircraft Selection using Fuzzy Proximity Measure Method in Multiple Criteria Group Decision Making

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The decision to select an unmanned combat aircraft is complicated since several options and conflicting criteria must be considered at simultaneously. When making multiple criteria decision, it is important to consider the selected evaluation criteria, including priceability, payloadability, stealthability, speedability , and survivability. The fundamental goal of the study is to select the best unmanned combat aircraft by taking these evaluation criteria into account. The optimal aircraft was chosen using the fuzzy proximity measure method, which enables decision-makers to designate preferences as standard fuzzy set numbers during the multiple criteria decision-making process. To assess the applicability of the proposed approach, a numerical example is provided. Finally, by comparing determined unmanned combat aircraft, the proposed method produced a successful application, and the best aircraft was selected.

Keywords: standard fuzzy sets (SFS), unmanned combat aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM), proximity measure method (PMM)

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4264 Toward Delegated Democracy: Vote by Yourself, or Trust Your Network

Authors: Hiroshi Yamakawa, Michiko Yoshida, Motohiro Tsuchiya

Abstract:

The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.

Keywords: Delegation, network centrality, social network, voting ratio.

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4263 Decision Making during the Project Management Life Cycle of Infrastructure Projects

Authors: Karrar Raoof Kareem Kamoona, Enas Fathi Taher AlHares, Zeynep Isik

Abstract:

The various disciplines in the construction industry and the co-existence of the people in the various disciplines are what builds well-developed, closely-knit interpersonal skills at various hierarchical levels thus leading to a varied way of leadership. The varied decision making aspects during the lifecycle of a project include: autocratic, participatory and last but not least, free-rein. We can classify some of the decision makers in the construction industry in a hierarchical manner as follows: project executive, project manager, superintendent, office engineer and finally the field engineer. This survey looked at how decisions are made during the construction period by the key stakeholders in the project. From the paper it is evident that the three decision making aspects can be used at different times or at times together in order to bring out the best leadership decision. A blend of different leadership styles should be used to enhance the success rate during the project lifecycle.

Keywords: Leadership style, construction, decision-making, built environment.

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4262 A New Decision Making Approach based on Possibilistic Influence Diagrams

Authors: Wided Guezguez, Nahla Ben Amor

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new decision making approch based on quantitative possibilistic influence diagrams which are extension of standard influence diagrams in the possibilistic framework. We will in particular treat the case where several expert opinions relative to value nodes are available. An initial expert assigns confidence degrees to other experts and fixes a similarity threshold that provided possibility distributions should respect. To illustrate our approach an evaluation algorithm for these multi-source possibilistic influence diagrams will also be proposed.

Keywords: influnece diagram, decision making, graphical decision models, influence diagrams, possibility theory.

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4261 Neutrosophic Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Method for Selecting Stealth Fighter Aircraft

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is proposed to select stealth fighter aircraft. Neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis methods are used to analyze the neutrosophic environment and give results under uncertainty and incompleteness. Neutrosophic numbers are used to evaluate alternatives over a set of evaluation criteria in decision making problems. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for selecting stealth fighter aircraft.

Keywords: neutrosophic sets, multiple criteria decision making analysis, stealth fighter aircraft, aircraft selection, MCDMA, SVNNs

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4260 A Soft Set based Group Decision Making Method with Criteria Weight

Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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4259 Regional Aircraft Selection Using Preference Analysis for Reference Ideal Solution (PARIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis process to determine the most suitable regional aircraft type according to a set of evaluation criteria. The main purpose of this study is to use different decision making methods to determine the most suitable regional aircraft for aviation operators. In this context, the nine regional aircraft types were analyzed using multiple criteria decision making analysis methods. Preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) was used in regional aircraft selection process. The findings of the proposed model show that the ranking results of the multiple criteria decision making models are consistent with each other, and the proposed method is efficient, and the results are valid. Finally, the Embraer E195-E2 model regional aircraft is chosen as the most suitable aircraft type.

Keywords: aircraft, regional aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS

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4258 The Aspect of the Human Bias in Decision Making within Quality Management Systems & LEAN Theory

Authors: Adriana Ávila Zúñiga Nordfjeld

Abstract:

This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling “human bias” in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows, among others. This reduces the efficiency, and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding, but in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making, QMS and LEAN, and future research is suggested.

Keywords: Human bias, decision making, LEAN Shipbuilding, quality management systems.

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4257 Facility Location Selection using Preference Programming

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents preference programming technique based multiple criteria decision making analysis for selecting a facility location for a new organization or expansion of an existing facility which is of vital importance for a decision support system and strategic planning process. The implementation of decision support systems is considered crucial to sustain competitive advantage and profitability persistence in turbulent environment. As an effective strategic management and decision making is necessary, multiple criteria decision making analysis supports the decision makers to formulate and implement the right strategy. The investment cost associated with acquiring the property and facility construction makes the facility location selection problem a long-term strategic investment decision, which rationalize the best location selection which results in higher economic benefits through increased productivity and optimal distribution network. Selecting the proper facility location from a given set of alternatives is a difficult task, as many potential qualitative and quantitative multiple conflicting criteria are to be considered. This paper solves a facility location selection problem using preference programming, which is an effective multiple criteria decision making analysis tool applied to deal with complex decision problems in the operational research environment. The ranking results of preference programming are compared with WSM, TOPSIS and VIKOR methods.

Keywords: Facility Location Selection, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, Preference Programming, Location Selection, WSM, TOPSIS, VIKOR

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4256 Aircraft Selection Process Using Reference Linear Combination in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new method for multiplecriteria decision making (MCDM) that avoids order reversal and ensures consistency in decision-making. The proposed method involves range targeting of benefit and cost criteria vectors for range normalization of the initial decision matrix. The Reference Linear Combination (RLC) is used to avoid the rank reversal problem. The preference order generated from the target score matrix does not require relative comparisons between alternatives but relies on a chosen reference solution point after transforming the original decision matrix into an MCDM problem by specifying the minimum and maximum bounds of each criterion. The efficiency and applicability of the proposed RLC method were demonstrated in the selection of commercial passenger aircraft. 

Keywords: Aircraft selection, reference linear combination (RLC), multiple criteria decision-making, MCDM

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4255 Futures Trading: Design of a Strategy

Authors: Jan Zeman

Abstract:

The paper describes the futures trading and aims to design the speculators trading strategy. The problem is formulated as the decision making task and such as is solved. The solution of the task leads to complex mathematical problems and the approximations of the decision making is demanded. Two kind of approximation are used in the paper: Monte Carlo for the multi-step prediction and iteration spread in time for the optimization. The solution is applied to the real-market data and the results of the off-line experiments are presented.

Keywords: futures trading, decision making

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4254 Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Framework for Supporting Biofuels Policy Making

Authors: Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska

Abstract:

In this paper, a fuzzy algorithm and a fuzzy multicriteria decision framework are developed and used for a practical question of optimizing biofuels policy making. The methodological framework shows how to incorporate fuzzy set theory in a decision process of finding a sustainable biofuels policy among several policy options. Fuzzy set theory is used here as a tool to deal with uncertainties of decision environment, vagueness and ambiguities of policy objectives, subjectivities of human assessments and imprecise and incomplete information about the evaluated policy instruments.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, multi-criteria decision-makingsupport, uncertainties, policy making, biofuels

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4253 Critical Analysis of Decision Making Experience with a Machine Learning Approach in Playing Ayo Game

Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe

Abstract:

The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.

Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.

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4252 Neuromarketing: Discovering the Somathyc Marker in the Consumer´s Brain

Authors: Mikel Alonso López, María Francisca Blasco López, Víctor Molero Ayala

Abstract:

The present study explains the somatic marker theory of Antonio Damasio, which indicates that when making a decision, the stored or possible future scenarios (future memory) images allow people to feel for a moment what would happen when they make a choice, and how this is emotionally marked. This process can be conscious or unconscious. The development of new Neuromarketing techniques such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), carries a greater understanding of how the brain functions and consumer behavior. In the results observed in different studies using fMRI, the evidence suggests that the somatic marker and future memories influence the decision-making process, adding a positive or negative emotional component to the options. This would mean that all decisions would involve a present emotional component, with a rational cost-benefit analysis that can be performed later.

Keywords: Emotions, decision making, somatic marker, consumer´s brain.

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4251 Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: Consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology.

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4250 A New Objective Weight on Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets

Authors: Nurnadiah Z., Lazim A.

Abstract:

The design of weight is one of the important parts in fuzzy decision making, as it would have a deep effect on the evaluation results. Entropy is one of the weight measure based on objective evaluation. Non--probabilistic-type entropy measures for fuzzy set and interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FS) have been developed and applied to weight measure. Since the entropy for (IT2FS) for decision making yet to be explored, this paper proposes a new objective weight method by using entropy weight method for multiple attribute decision making (MADM). This paper utilizes the nature of IT2FS concept in the evaluation process to assess the attribute weight based on the credibility of data. An example was presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the new method in decision making. The entropy measure of interval type-2 fuzzy sets yield flexible judgment and could be applied in decision making environment.

Keywords: Objective weight, entropy weight, multiple attributedecision making, type-2 fuzzy sets, interval type-2 fuzzy sets

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4249 Fighter Aircraft Evaluation and Selection Process Based on Triangular Fuzzy Numbers in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a multiple criteria evaluation approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The fighter aircraft evaluation and selection decision making problem is modeled in a fuzzy environment with triangular fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy decision information related to the fighter aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ordering the alternatives and selecting the best candidate. The basic fuzzy TOPSIS procedure steps transform fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A practical numerical example illustrates the proposed approach to the fighter aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number (TFN), multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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4248 Statistical Approach to Identify Stress and Biases Impairing Decision-Making in High-Risk Industry

Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

Abstract:

Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: Bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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4247 A Fuzzy Decision Making Approach for Supplier Selection in Healthcare Industry

Authors: Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun

Abstract:

Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most important components of an effective supply chain management system. Due to the expanding competition in healthcare, selecting the right medical device suppliers offers great potential for increasing quality while decreasing costs. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for medical supplier selection. A real-world medical device supplier selection problem is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed decision methodology.

Keywords: Fuzzy decision making, fuzzy multiple objective programming, medical supply chain, supplier selection.

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4246 Architectural Acoustic Modeling for Predicting Reverberation Time in Room Acoustic Design Using Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents architectural acoustic modeling to estimate reverberation time in room acoustic design using multiple criteria decision making analysis. First, fundamental decision criteria were determined to evaluate the reverberation time in the room acoustic design problem. Then, the proposed model was applied to a practical decision problem to evaluate and select the optimal room acoustic design model. Finally, the optimal acoustic design of the rooms was analyzed and ranked using a multiple criteria decision making analysis method.

Keywords: Architectural acoustics, room acoustics, architectural acoustic modeling, reverberation time, room acoustic design, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision analysis, MCDMA

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4245 New Fuzzy Preference Relations and its Application in Group Decision Making

Authors: Nur Syibrah Muhamad Naim, Mohd Lazim Abdullah, Che Mohd Imran Che Taib, Abu OsmanMd. Tap

Abstract:

Decision making preferences to certain criteria usually focus on positive degrees without considering the negative degrees. However, in real life situation, evaluation becomes more comprehensive if negative degrees are considered concurrently. Preference is expected to be more effective when considering both positive and negative degrees of preference to evaluate the best selection. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose the conflicting bifuzzy preference relations in group decision making by utilization of a novel score function. The conflicting bifuzzy preference relation is obtained by introducing some modifications on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Releasing the intuitionistic condition by taking into account positive and negative degrees simultaneously and utilizing the novel score function are the main modifications to establish the proposed preference model. The proposed model is tested with a numerical example and proved to be simple and practical. The four-step decision model shows the efficiency of obtaining preference in group decision making.

Keywords: Fuzzy preference relations, score function, conflicting bifuzzy, decision making.

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