Search results for: Climatic Designing

Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke

Abstract:

This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: Trade, growth, impact, environment.

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Authors: Pawel P. Czapski, Andrzej Sluzek

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This paper presents preliminary results regarding system-level power awareness for FPGA implementations in wireless sensor networks. Re-configurability of field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) allows for significant flexibility in its applications to embedded systems. However, high power consumption in FPGA becomes a significant factor in design considerations. We present several ideas and their experimental verifications on how to optimize power consumption at high level of designing process while maintaining the same energy per operation (low-level methods can be used additionally). This paper demonstrates that it is possible to estimate feasible power consumption savings even at the high level of designing process. It is envisaged that our results can be also applied to other embedded systems applications, not limited to FPGA-based.

Keywords: Power optimization, FPGA, system-level designing, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Shoureshe Kanani, Hassan Zandi

Abstract:

Historical monuments as architectural heritage are, economically and culturally, considered one of the key aspects for modern communities. Cultural heritage represents a country-s national identity and pride and maintains and enriches that country-s culture. Therefore, conservation of the monuments remained from our ancestors requires everybody-s serious and unremitting effort. Conservation, renewal, restoration, and technical study of cultural and historical matters are issues which have a special status among various forms of art and science in the present century and this is due to two reasons: firstly, progress of humankind in this century has created a factor called environmental pollution which not only has caused new destructive processes of cultural/historical monuments but also has accelerated the previous destructive processes by several times, and secondly, the rapid advance of various sciences, especially chemistry, has lead to the contribution of new methods and materials to this significant issue.

Keywords: Air Pollution, Climatic, Historical Monuments

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Authors: M. Alwetaishi, Giulia Sonetti

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It is architecturally accepted that building form and design is considered as one of the most important aspects in affecting indoor temperature. The total area of building plan might be identical, but the design will have a major influence on the total area of external walls. This will have a clear impact on the amount of heat exchange with outdoor. Moreover, it will affect the position and area of glazing system. This has not received enough consideration in research by the specialists, since most of the publications are highlighting the impact of building envelope in terms of physical heat transfer in buildings. This research will investigate the impact of orientation of various building forms in various climatic regions. It will be concluded that orientation and glazing to wall ratio were recognized to be the most effective variables despite the shape of the building. However, linear ad radial forms were found more appropriate shapes almost across the continent.

Keywords: Architectural building design, building form, indoor air temperature, building design in different climate.

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Authors: R. Ghasemi, M. R. Rahimi Khoygani

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This paper proposes the designing direct adaptive neural controller to apply for a class of a nonlinear pendulum dynamic system. The radial basis function (RBF) neural adaptive controller is robust in presence of external and internal uncertainties. Both the effectiveness of the controller and robustness against disturbances are importance of this paper. The simulation results show the promising performance of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Adaptive Neural Controller, Nonlinear Dynamical, Neural Network, RBF, Driven Pendulum, Position Control.

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Authors: Paulo S. Caparelli, Eduardo Costa, Alexsandro S. Soares, Hipolito Barbosa

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This paper presents an evolutionary method for designing electronic circuits and numerical methods associated with monitoring systems. The instruments described here have been used in studies of weather and climate changes due to global warming, and also in medical patient supervision. Genetic Programming systems have been used both for designing circuits and sensors, and also for determining sensor parameters. The authors advance the thesis that the software side of such a system should be written in computer languages with a strong mathematical and logic background in order to prevent software obsolescence, and achieve program correctness.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, evolutionary computation, biological signal, functional programming.

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Authors: A. R. Ommani, M. Chizari

Abstract:

The purpose of the study reported here was designing Information Dissemination System (IDS) based E-learning in agricultural of Iran. A questionnaire was developed to designing Information Dissemination System. The questionnaire was distributed to 96 extension agents who work for Management of Extension and Farming System of Khuzestan province of Iran. Data collected were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Appropriate statistical procedures for description (frequencies, percent, means, and standard deviations) were used. In this study there was a significant relationship between the age , IT skill and knowledge, years of extension work, the extend of information seeking motivation, level of job satisfaction and level of education with use of information technology by extension agent. According to extension agents five factors were ranked respectively as five top essential items to designing Information Dissemination System (IDS) based E-learning in agricultural of Iran. These factors include: 1) Establish communication between farmers, coordinators (extension agents), agricultural experts, research centers, and community by information technology. 2) The communication between all should be mutual. 3) The information must be based farmers need. 4) Internet used as a facility to transfer the advanced agricultural information to the farming community. 5) Farmers can be illiterate and speak a local and they are not expected to use the system directly. Knowledge produced by the agricultural scientist must be transformed in to computer understandable presentation. To designing Information Dissemination System, electronic communication, in the agricultural society and rural areas must be developed. This communication must be mutual between all factors.

Keywords: E-learning, information dissemination system, information technology.

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Authors: Bahareh Gholamzadeh, Hooman Nabovati

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Wireless sensor networks have been used in wide areas of application and become an attractive area for researchers in recent years. Because of the limited energy storage capability of sensor nodes, Energy consumption is one of the most challenging aspects of these networks and different strategies and protocols deals with this area. This paper presents general methods for designing low power wireless sensor network. Different sources of energy consumptions in these networks are discussed here and techniques for alleviating the consumption of energy are presented.

Keywords: Energy consumption, MAC protocol, Routing protocol, Sensor node, Topology control, Wireless sensor network.

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Authors: Karel Frydrýšek, Pavel Koštial, Karla Barabaszová, Jana Kukutschová

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This paper deals with a new way for designing external fixators applied in traumatology and orthopaedics. These fixators can be applied in the treatment of open and unstable fractures or for lengthening human or animal bones etc. The new design is based on the development of Ilizarov and other techniques (i.e. shape and weight optimalization based on composite materials, application of smart materials, nanotechnology, low x-ray absorption, antibacterial protection, patient's comfort, reduction in the duration of the surgical treatment, and cost).

Keywords: biomechanics, design, external fixators, newmaterials, traumatology

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Authors: Arnab Bandyopadhyay, Anubhab Pal, Subhajit Debnath

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Climate change is a cumulative change in weather patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data. Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found. However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.

Keywords: Temporal trend, climate change, ArcGIS, Mann- Kendall test, Sen slope

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Authors: Makesh Iyer, T. Shanmuganantham

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This work deals with the designing of an efficient low noise amplifier for 10.00 GHz applications. The amplifier is designed using Gallium Arsenide High Electron Mobility Transistor (GaAs HEMT) ATF – 36077 with inductive source degeneration technique which is one of the techniques to improve the stability of the potentially unstable device and make it unconditionally stable. Also, different substrates are used for designing the LNA to identify the suitable substrate that gives optimum results. It is observed that the noise immunity is more in Low Noise Amplifier (LNA) designed using RT Duroid 5880 substrate. This design resulted in noise figure of 0.859 dB and power gain of 15.530 dB. The comparative analysis of the LNA design is discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Low noise amplifier, substrate, distributed components, gain, noise figure.

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Authors: F. Allag, S. Bouharati, M. Belmahdi, R. Zegadi

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The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.

Keywords: Desert soil, Climatic changes, Bacteria, Vegetation, Artificial neural networks.

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Authors: Farnaz Nazem

Abstract:

The aim of sustainable architecture is to design buildings with the least adverse effects on the environment and provide better conditions for people. What building forms make the best use of land? This question was addressed in the late 1960s at the center of Land Use and Built Form Studies in Cambridge. This led to a number of influential papers which had a great influence on the practice of urban design. This paper concentrates on the results of sustainability caused by climatic conditions in Iranian traditional architecture in hot-arid regions. As people spent a significant amount of their time in houses, it was very important to have such houses to fulfill their needs physically and spiritually as well as satisfying their cultural and religious aspects of their lifestyles. In a vast country such as Iran with different climatic zones, traditional builders have presented series of logical solutions for human comfort. These solutions have been able to response to the environmental problems for a long period of time. As a result, by considering the experience in traditional architecture of hot–arid climate in Iran, it is possible to attain sustainable architecture.

Keywords: Hot-arid climate, Iran, sustainable traditional architecture, urban planning.

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Authors: Kirti Tewari, Rahul Dev

Abstract:

Solar water heating is a thermodynamic process of heating water using sunlight with the help of solar water heater. Thus, solar water heater is a device used to harness solar energy. In this paper, a modified solar water heating system (MSWHS) has been proposed over flat plate collector (FPC) and Evacuated tube collector (ETC). The modifications include selection of materials other than glass, and glass wool which are conventionally used for fabricating FPC and ETC. Some modifications in design have also been proposed. Its collector is made of double layer of semi-cylindrical acrylic tubes and fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) insulation base. Water tank is made of double layer of acrylic sheet except base and north wall. FRP is used in base and north wall of the water tank. A concept of equivalent thickness has been utilised for calculating the dimensions of collector plate, acrylic tube and tank. A thermal model for the proposed design of MSWHS is developed and simulation is carried out on MATLAB for the capacity of 200L MSWHS having collector area of 1.6 m2, length of acrylic tubes of 2m at an inclination angle 25° which is taken nearly equal to the latitude of the given location. Latitude of Allahabad is 24.45° N. The results show that the maximum temperature of water in tank and tube has been found to be 71.2°C and 73.3°C at 17:00hr and 16:00hr respectively in March for the climatic data of Allahabad. Theoretical performance analysis has been carried out by varying number of tubes of collector, the tank capacity and climatic data for given months of winter and summer.

Keywords: Acrylic, Fibre reinforced plastic, Solar water Heating, Thermal model, Conventional water heaters.

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Authors: Panam. Zarfam, Mohsen. Javan Pour

Abstract:

Recently, analysis and designing of the structures based on the Reliability theory have been the center of attention. Reason of this attention is the existence of the natural and random structural parameters such as the material specification, external loads, geometric dimensions etc. By means of the Reliability theory, uncertainties resulted from the statistical nature of the structural parameters can be changed into the mathematical equations and the safety and operational considerations can be considered in the designing process. According to this theory, it is possible to study the destruction probability of not only a specific element but also the entire system. Therefore, after being assured of safety of every element, their reciprocal effects on the safety of the entire system can be investigated.

Keywords: Probability, Reliability, Statistics, Uncertainty

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Authors: Ö. Şenyiğit, A. Çolak

Abstract:

It is of great importance for an architectural student to know the parameters through which he/she can conduct his/her design and makes his/her design effective in architectural education. Therefore; an empirical application study was carried out through the designing activity using the emulation model to support the design and design approaches of architectural students. During the investigation period, studies were done on the basic design elements and principles of the fall semester, and the emulation model, one of the designing methods that constitute the subject of the study, was fictionalized as three phased “recognition-interpretation-application”. As a result of the study, it was observed that when students were given a key method during the design process, their awareness increased and their aspects improved as well.

Keywords: Basic design, design education, design methods, emulation.

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Authors: Carmen E. Zapata, José F. Jiménez, Mauricio Ramiréz, Natalia A. Cano

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The majority of the urban areas in Latin America face the challenges associated with city planning and development problems, attributed to human, technical, and economical factors; therefore, we cannot ignore the issues related to climate change because the city modifies the natural landscape in a significant way transforming the radiation balance and heat content in the urbanized areas. These modifications provoke changes in the temperature distribution known as “the heat island effect”. According to this phenomenon, we have the need to conceive the urban planning based on climatological patterns that will assure its sustainable functioning, including the particularities of the climate variability. In the present study, it is identified the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley (Colombia) with the objective of relocate the air quality monitoring stations as a partial solution to the problem of how to measure representative air quality levels in a city for a local scale, but with instruments that measure in the microscale.

Keywords: Air quality, monitoring, local climatic zones, valley, monitoring stations.

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Authors: Ratima Damkham, Natasha Dejdumrong, Priyakorn Pusawiro

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This paper explored the solution in game design to help game designers in the educational game designing using digital educational game model canvas (DEGMC) and digital educational game form (DEGF) based on Outcome-based Education program. DEGMC and DEGF can help designers develop an overview of the game while designing and planning their own game. The way to clearly assess players’ ability from learning outcomes and support their game learning design is by using the tools. Designers can balance educational content and entertainment in designing a game by using the strategies of the Business Model Canvas and design the gameplay and players’ ability assessment from learning outcomes they need by referring to the Constructive Alignment. Furthermore, they can use their design plan in this research to write their Game Design Document (GDD). The success of the research was evaluated by four experts’ perspectives in the education and computer field. From the experiments, the canvas and form helped the game designers model their game according to the learning outcomes and analysis of their own game elements. This method can be a path to research an educational game design in the future.

Keywords: Constructive alignment, constructivist theory, educational game, outcome-based education.

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Authors: Tamal Bose, Zhurun Zhang, Miloje Radenkovic, Ojas Chauhan

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In this paper, a novel approach is presented for designing multiplier-free state-space digital filters. The multiplier-free design is obtained by finding power-of-2 coefficients and also quantizing the state variables to power-of-2 numbers. Expressions for the noise variance are derived for the quantized state vector and the output of the filter. A “structuretransformation matrix" is incorporated in these expressions. It is shown that quantization effects can be minimized by properly designing the structure-transformation matrix. Simulation results are very promising and illustrate the design algorithm.

Keywords: Digital filters, minimum noise, multiplier-free, quantization, state-space.

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Authors: Adil Al-Rammahi

Abstract:

Electronic mail is very important in present time. Many researchers work for designing, improving, securing, fasting, goodness and others fields in electronic mail. This paper introduced new algorithm to use Cantor sets and cubic spline interpolating function in the electronic mail design. Cantor sets used as the area (or domain) of the mail, while spline function used for designing formula. The roots of spline function versus Cantor sets used as the controller admin. The roots calculated by the numerical Newton – Raphson's method. The result of this algorithm was promised.

Keywords: Cantor sets, spline, electronic mail design, Newton – Raphson's method.

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Authors: Yanwei Pang, Lei Zhang, Zhengkai Liu

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Studies in neuroscience suggest that both global and local feature information are crucial for perception and recognition of faces. It is widely believed that local feature is less sensitive to variations caused by illumination, expression and illumination. In this paper, we target at designing and learning local features for face recognition. We designed three types of local features. They are semi-global feature, local patch feature and tangent shape feature. The designing of semi-global feature aims at taking advantage of global-like feature and meanwhile avoiding suppressing AdaBoost algorithm in boosting weak classifies established from small local patches. The designing of local patch feature targets at automatically selecting discriminative features, and is thus different with traditional ways, in which local patches are usually selected manually to cover the salient facial components. Also, shape feature is considered in this paper for frontal view face recognition. These features are selected and combined under the framework of boosting algorithm and cascade structure. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the standard eigenface method and Bayesian method. Moreover, the selected local features and observations in the experiments are enlightening to researches in local feature design in face recognition.

Keywords: Face recognition, local feature, AdaBoost, subspace analysis.

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Authors: Phanu Waraporn

Abstract:

This paper discusses the designing of knowledge integration of clinical information extracted from distributed medical ontologies in order to ameliorate a machine learning-based multilabel coding assignment system. The proposed approach is implemented using a decision tree technique of the machine learning on the university hospital data for patients with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). The preliminary results obtained show a satisfactory finding that the use of medical ontologies improves the overall system performance.

Keywords: Medical Ontology, Knowledge Integration, Machine Learning, Medical Coding, Text Assignment.

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Authors: Naveen Kumar, Shyambihari Prajapati

Abstract:

Industry 4.0 is the fourth industrial revolution that focuses on interconnectivity of machine to machine, human to machine and human to human via Internet of Things (IoT). Technologies of industry 4.0 facilitate communication between human and machine through IoT and forms Cyber-Physical Production System (CPPS). In CPPS, multiple shop floors sensor data are connected through IoT and displayed through sensor dashboard to the operator. These sensor dashboards have enormous amount of information to be presented which becomes complex for operators to perform monitoring, controlling and interpretation tasks. Designing handheld sensor dashboards for supervision task will become a challenge for the interface designers. This paper reports emerging technologies of industry 4.0, changing context of increasing information complexity in consecutive industrial revolutions and upcoming design challenges for interface designers in context of Industry 4.0. Authors conclude that information complexity of sensor dashboards design has increased with consecutive industrial revolutions and designs of sensor dashboard causes cognitive load on users. Designing such complex dashboards interfaces in Industry 4.0 context will become main challenges for the interface designers.

Keywords: Industry 4.0, sensor dashboard design, Cyber-physical production system, Interface designer.

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Authors: Yang Bao, LuJing Zhang

Abstract:

Typical Intelligent Decision Support System is 4-based, its design composes of Data Warehouse, Online Analytical Processing, Data Mining and Decision Supporting based on models, which is called Decision Support System Based on Data Warehouse (DSSBDW). This way takes ETL,OLAP and DM as its implementing means, and integrates traditional model-driving DSS and data-driving DSS into a whole. For this kind of problem, this paper analyzes the DSSBDW architecture and DW model, and discusses the following key issues: ETL designing and Realization; metadata managing technology using XML; SQL implementing, optimizing performance, data mapping in OLAP; lastly, it illustrates the designing principle and method of DW in DSSBDW.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Data Warehouse, Data Mining.

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Authors: Patrick Maier, Marcus Tönnis, Gudrun Klinker

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Spatial understanding and the understanding of dynamic change in the spatial structure of molecules during a reaction is essential for designing new molecules. Knowing the physical processes in the reactions helps to speed up the designing process. To support the designer with the correct representation of the designed molecule as well as showing the dynamic behavior of the whole reacting system is the goal of our application. Our system shows the spatial deformation of the molecules at every time interval by minimizing the energy level of the molecules. The position and orientation of the molecules can be intuitively controlled by manipulating objects of the real world using Augmented Reality techniques. Our approach has the potential to speed up the design of new molecules and help students to understand the chemical processes better.

Keywords: Augmented Augmented Chemical Reactions, Augmented Reality, chemistry, education.

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

Abstract:

Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: Climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, artificial neural network, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Halil Snopce, Ilir Spahiu

Abstract:

In this paper is investigated a possible optimization of some linear algebra problems which can be solved by parallel processing using the special arrays called systolic arrays. In this paper are used some special types of transformations for the designing of these arrays. We show the characteristics of these arrays. The main focus is on discussing the advantages of these arrays in parallel computation of matrix product, with special approach to the designing of systolic array for matrix multiplication. Multiplication of large matrices requires a lot of computational time and its complexity is O(n3 ). There are developed many algorithms (both sequential and parallel) with the purpose of minimizing the time of calculations. Systolic arrays are good suited for this purpose. In this paper we show that using an appropriate transformation implicates in finding more optimal arrays for doing the calculations of this type.

Keywords: Data dependences, matrix multiplication, systolicarray, transformation matrix.

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Authors: Mehran Pourgholi , Amin Lotfi Eghlim

Abstract:

Explosions may cause intensive damage to buildings and sometimes lead to total and progressive destruction. Pressures induced by explosions are one of the most destructive loads a structure may experience. While designing structures for great explosions may be expensive and impractical, engineers are looking for methods for preventing destructions resulted from explosions. A favorable structural system is a system which does not disrupt totally due to local explosion, since such structures sustain less loss in comparison with structural ones which really bear the load and suddenly disrupt. Designing and establishing vital and necessary installations in a way that it is resistant against direct hit of bomb and rocket is not practical, economical, or expedient in many cases, because the cost of construction and installation with such specifications is several times more than the total cost of the related equipment.

Keywords: Explosion Waves, explosion load, Office, Residential Buildings

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Authors: E. Bensaci, M. Saheb, Y. Nouidjem, A. Zoubiri, A. Bouzegag, M. Houhamdi

Abstract:

The Greater flamingo is considered the flagship species of wetlands across semi-arid and Saharan regions of Africa, especially Chotts and Sebkhas, which also concentrate significant numbers of bird species. Flamingos have different status (wintering and breeder) which vary between sites in different parts of Algeria. We conducted surveys and recorded banded flamingos across distinct regions within two climatic belts: semi-arid (Hauts Plateaux) and arid (Sahara), showing the importance of these sites in the migratory flyways particularly the relation between West Mediterranean and West Africa populations. The distribution of Greater flamingos varied between sites and seasons, where the concentrations mainly were in the wide, lees deep and salt lakes. Many of the sites (17) in the surveyed area were regularly supporting at least 1% of the regional population during winter. The analysis of Greater flamingos behaviour in different climatic regions in relation showed that the feeding is the dominant diurnal activity with rates exceeding 60% of the time. While feeding varies between seasons, and showed a negative relationship with the degree of disturbance.

Keywords: Algeria, greater flamingo, Phoenicopterus roseus, Sahara, semi-arid.

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Authors: A. Abdullah, A. Bakshwain, A. Aslam

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Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i) climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e. Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources, which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization (effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the three countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous livestock population.

Keywords: Prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity.

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