Search results for: prediction error method
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9466

Search results for: prediction error method

8926 Evaluation of Model Evaluation Criterion for Software Development Effort Estimation

Authors: S. K. Pillai, M. K. Jeyakumar

Abstract:

Estimation of model parameters is necessary to predict the behavior of a system. Model parameters are estimated using optimization criteria. Most algorithms use historical data to estimate model parameters. The known target values (actual) and the output produced by the model are compared. The differences between the two form the basis to estimate the parameters. In order to compare different models developed using the same data different criteria are used. The data obtained for short scale projects are used here. We consider software effort estimation problem using radial basis function network. The accuracy comparison is made using various existing criteria for one and two predictors. Then, we propose a new criterion based on linear least squares for evaluation and compared the results of one and two predictors. We have considered another data set and evaluated prediction accuracy using the new criterion. The new criterion is easy to comprehend compared to single statistic. Although software effort estimation is considered, this method is applicable for any modeling and prediction.

Keywords: Software effort estimation, accuracy, Radial Basis Function, linear least squares.

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8925 Hierarchical Operation Strategies for Grid Connected Building Microgrid with Energy Storage and Photovoltatic Source

Authors: Seon-Ho Yoon, Jin-Young Choi, Dong-Jun Won

Abstract:

This paper presents hierarchical operation strategies which are minimizing operation error between day ahead operation plan and real time operation. Operating power systems between centralized and decentralized approaches can be represented as hierarchical control scheme, featured as primary control, secondary control and tertiary control. Primary control is known as local control, featuring fast response. Secondary control is referred to as microgrid Energy Management System (EMS). Tertiary control is responsible of coordinating the operations of multi-microgrids. In this paper, we formulated 3 stage microgrid operation strategies which are similar to hierarchical control scheme. First stage is to set a day ahead scheduled output power of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) which is only controllable source in microgrid and it is optimized to minimize cost of exchanged power with main grid using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. Second stage is to control the active and reactive power of BESS to be operated in day ahead scheduled plan in case that State of Charge (SOC) error occurs between real time and scheduled plan. The third is rescheduling the system when the predicted error is over the limited value. The first stage can be compared with the secondary control in that it adjusts the active power. The second stage is comparable to the primary control in that it controls the error in local manner. The third stage is compared with the secondary control in that it manages power balancing. The proposed strategies will be applied to one of the buildings in Electronics and Telecommunication Research Institute (ETRI). The building microgrid is composed of Photovoltaic (PV) generation, BESS and load and it will be interconnected with the main grid. Main purpose of that is minimizing operation cost and to be operated in scheduled plan. Simulation results support validation of proposed strategies.

Keywords: Battery energy storage system, energy management system, microgrid, particle swarm optimization.

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8924 Towards the Prediction of Aesthetic Requirements for Women’s Apparel Product

Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

Abstract:

The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: Aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width.

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8923 Optimal Feedback Linearization Control of PEM Fuel Cell

Authors: E. Shahsavari, R. Ghasemi, A. Akramizadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method to design nonlinear feedback linearization controller for PEMFCs (Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells). A nonlinear controller is designed based on nonlinear model to prolong the stack life of PEMFCs. Since it is known that large deviations between hydrogen and oxygen partial pressures can cause severe membrane damage in the fuel cell, feedback linearization is applied to the PEMFC system so that the deviation can be kept as small as possible during disturbances or load variations. To obtain an accurate feedback linearization controller, tuning the linear parameters are always important. So in proposed study NSGA (Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm)-II method was used to tune the designed controller in aim to decrease the controller tracking error. The simulation result showed that the proposed method tuned the controller efficiently.

Keywords: Feedback Linearization controller, NSGA, Optimal Control, PEMFC.

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8922 Mean Velocity Modeling of Open-Channel Flow with Submerged Rigid Vegetation

Authors: M. Morri, A. Soualmia, P. Belleudy

Abstract:

Vegetation affects the mean and turbulent flow structure. It may increase flood risks and sediment transport. Therefore, it is important to develop analytical approaches for the bed shear stress on vegetated bed, to predict resistance caused by vegetation. In the recent years, experimental and numerical models have both been developed to model the effects of submerged vegetation on open-channel flow. In this paper, different analytic models are compared and tested using the criteria of deviation, to explore their capacity for predicting the mean velocity and select the suitable one that will be applied in real case of rivers. The comparison between the measured data in vegetated flume and simulated mean velocities indicated, a good performance, in the case of rigid vegetation, whereas, Huthoff model shows the best agreement with a high coefficient of determination (R2=80%) and the smallest error in the prediction of the average velocities.

Keywords: Analytic Models, Comparison, Mean Velocity, Vegetation.

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8921 Dynamic Fault Diagnosis for Semi-Batch Reactor under Closed-Loop Control via Independent Radial Basis Function Neural Network

Authors: Abdelkarim M. Ertiame, D. W. Yu, D. L. Yu, J. B. Gomm

Abstract:

In this paper, a robust fault detection and isolation (FDI) scheme is developed to monitor a multivariable nonlinear chemical process called the Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor, when it is under the cascade PI control. The scheme employs a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) in an independent mode to model the process dynamics, and using the weighted sum-squared prediction error as the residual. The Recursive Orthogonal Least Squares algorithm (ROLS) is employed to train the model to overcome the training difficulty of the independent mode of the network. Then, another RBFNN is used as a fault classifier to isolate faults from different features involved in the residual vector. Several actuator and sensor faults are simulated in a nonlinear simulation of the reactor in Simulink. The scheme is used to detect and isolate the faults on-line. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the scheme even the process is subjected to disturbances and uncertainties including significant changes in the monomer feed rate, fouling factor, impurity factor, ambient temperature, and measurement noise. The simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Robust fault detection, cascade control, independent RBF model, RBF neural networks, Chylla-Haase reactor, FDI under closed-loop control.

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8920 Gas Turbine Optimal PID Tuning by Genetic Algorithm using MSE

Authors: R. Oonsivilai, A. Oonsivilai

Abstract:

Realistic systems generally are systems with various inputs and outputs also known as Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO). Such systems usually prove to be complex and difficult to model and control purposes. Therefore, decomposition was used to separate individual inputs and outputs. A PID is assigned to each individual pair to regulate desired settling time. Suitable parameters of PIDs obtained from Genetic Algorithm (GA), using Mean of Squared Error (MSE) objective function.

Keywords: Gas Turbine, PID, Genetic Algorithm, Transfer function.Mean of Squared Error

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8919 An Improved Heat Transfer Prediction Model for Film Condensation inside a Tube with Interphacial Shear Effect

Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev

Abstract:

The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.

Keywords: Film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress.

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8918 The Use Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network for Prediction of Daily Tidal Levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

Abstract:

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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8917 Influence of Temperature Variations on Calibrated Cameras

Authors: Peter Podbreznik, Božidar Potocnik

Abstract:

The camera parameters are changed due to temperature variations, which directly influence calibrated cameras accuracy. Robustness of calibration methods were measured and their accuracy was tested. An error ratio due to camera parameters change with respect to total error originated during calibration process was determined. It pointed out that influence of temperature variations decrease by increasing distance of observed objects from cameras.

Keywords: camera calibration, perspective projection matrix, epipolar geometry, temperature variation.

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8916 No-Reference Image Quality Assessment using Blur and Noise

Authors: Min Goo Choi, Jung Hoon Jung, Jae Wook Jeon

Abstract:

Assessment for image quality traditionally needs its original image as a reference. The conventional method for assessment like Mean Square Error (MSE) or Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) is invalid when there is no reference. In this paper, we present a new No-Reference (NR) assessment of image quality using blur and noise. The recent camera applications provide high quality images by help of digital Image Signal Processor (ISP). Since the images taken by the high performance of digital camera have few blocking and ringing artifacts, we only focus on the blur and noise for predicting the objective image quality. The experimental results show that the proposed assessment method gives high correlation with subjective Difference Mean Opinion Score (DMOS). Furthermore, the proposed method provides very low computational load in spatial domain and similar extraction of characteristics to human perceptional assessment.

Keywords: No Reference, Image Quality Assessment, blur, noise.

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8915 Dynamic Modeling of a Robot for Playing a Curved 3D Percussion Instrument Utilizing a Finite Element Method

Authors: Prakash Persad, Kelvin Loutan, Jr., Trichelle Seepersad

Abstract:

The Finite Element Method is commonly used in the analysis of flexible manipulators to predict elastic displacements and develop joint control schemes for reducing positioning error. In order to preserve simplicity, regular geometries, ideal joints and connections are assumed. This paper presents the dynamic FE analysis of a 4- degrees of freedom open chain manipulator, intended for striking a curved 3D surface percussion musical instrument. This was done utilizing the new MultiBody Dynamics Module in COMSOL, capable of modeling the elastic behavior of a body undergoing rigid body type motion.

Keywords: Dynamic modeling, Entertainment robots, Finite element method, Flexible robot manipulators, Multibody dynamics, Musical robots.

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8914 The Effect of Clamping Restrain on the Prediction of Drape Simulation Software Tool

Authors: T.A. Adegbola, IEA Aghachi, E.R. Sadiku

Abstract:

To investigates the effect of fiberglass clamping process improvement on drape simulation prediction. This has great effect on the mould and the fiber during manufacturing process. This also, improves the fiber strain, the quality of the fiber orientation in the area of folding and wrinkles formation during the press-forming process. Drape simulation software tool was used to digitalize the process, noting the formation problems on the contour sensitive part. This was compared with the real life clamping processes using single and double frame set-ups to observe the effects. Also, restrains are introduced by using clips, and the G-clamps with predetermine revolution to; restrain the fabric deformation during the forming process.The incorporation of clamping and fabric restrain deformation improved on the prediction of the simulation tool. Therefore, for effective forming process, incorporation of clamping process into the drape simulation process will assist in the development of fiberglass application in manufacturing process.

Keywords: clamping, fiberglass, drape simulation, pressforming.

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8913 Accurate Crosstalk Analysis for RLC On-Chip VLSI Interconnect

Authors: Susmita Sahoo, Madhumanti Datta, Rajib Kar

Abstract:

This work proposes an accurate crosstalk noise estimation method in the presence of multiple RLC lines for the use in design automation tools. This method correctly models the loading effects of non switching aggressors and aggressor tree branches using resistive shielding effect and realistic exponential input waveforms. Noise peak and width expressions have been derived. The results obtained are at good agreement with SPICE results. Results show that average error for noise peak is 4.7% and for the width is 6.15% while allowing a very fast analysis.

Keywords: Crosstalk, distributed RLC segments, On-Chip interconnect, output response, VLSI, noise peak, noise width.

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8912 The Classification Performance in Parametric and Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis for a Class- Unbalanced Data of Diabetes Risk Groups

Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

Abstract:

The problems arising from unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many researchers have found that the performance of existing classifiers tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k-nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is a method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. In this study, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest in investigating misclassification error rates for classimbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Data from a project maintaining healthy conditions for 599 employees of a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The employees were divided into three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data including the variables of diabetes risk group, age, gender, blood glucose, and BMI were analyzed and bootstrapped for 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of the misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples showed nonnormality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. Searching the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) and (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k=3 or k=4 and the defined prior probabilities of non-risk: risk: diabetic as 0.90: 0.05:0.05 or 0.80:0.10:0.10 gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: Bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, error rate, k-nearest neighbors.

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8911 GPU Based High Speed Error Protection for Watermarked Medical Image Transmission

Authors: Md Shohidul Islam, Jongmyon Kim, Ui-pil Chong

Abstract:

Medical image is an integral part of e-health care and e-diagnosis system. Medical image watermarking is widely used to protect patients’ information from malicious alteration and manipulation. The watermarked medical images are transmitted over the internet among patients, primary and referred physicians. The images are highly prone to corruption in the wireless transmission medium due to various noises, deflection, and refractions. Distortion in the received images leads to faulty watermark detection and inappropriate disease diagnosis. To address the issue, this paper utilizes error correction code (ECC) with (8, 4) Hamming code in an existing watermarking system. In addition, we implement the high complex ECC on a graphics processing units (GPU) to accelerate and support real-time requirement. Experimental results show that GPU achieves considerable speedup over the sequential CPU implementation, while maintaining 100% ECC efficiency.

Keywords: Medical Image Watermarking (MIW), e-health system, error correction, Hamming code, GPU.

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8910 Performance Analysis of a Flexible Manufacturing Line Operated Under Surplus-based Production Control

Authors: K. K. Starkov, A. Y. Pogromsky, I. J. B. F. Adan, J. E. Rooda

Abstract:

In this paper we present our results on the performance analysis of a multi-product manufacturing line. We study the influence of external perturbations, intermediate buffer content and the number of manufacturing stages on the production tracking error of each machine in the multi-product line operated under a surplusbased production control policy. Starting by the analysis of a single machine with multiple production stages (one for each product type), we provide bounds on the production error of each stage. Then, we extend our analysis to a line of multi-stage machines, where similarly, bounds on each production tracking error for each product type, as well as buffer content are obtained. Details on performance of the closed-loop flow line model are illustrated in numerical simulations.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems, tracking systems, discrete time systems, production control, boundary conditions.

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8909 RBF modeling of Incipient Motion of Plane Sand Bed Channels

Authors: Gopu Sreenivasulu, Bimlesh Kumar, Achanta Ramakrishna Rao

Abstract:

To define or predict incipient motion in an alluvial channel, most of the investigators use a standard or modified form of Shields- diagram. Shields- diagram does give a process to determine the incipient motion parameters but an iterative one. To design properly (without iteration), one should have another equation for resistance. Absence of a universal resistance equation also magnifies the difficulties in defining the model. Neural network technique, which is particularly useful in modeling a complex processes, is presented as a tool complimentary to modeling incipient motion. Present work develops a neural network model employing the RBF network to predict the average velocity u and water depth y based on the experimental data on incipient condition. Based on the model, design curves have been presented for the field application.

Keywords: Incipient motion, Prediction error, Radial-Basisfunction, Sediment transport, Shields' diagram.

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8908 Classification of Initial Stripe Height Patterns using Radial Basis Function Neural Network for Proportional Gain Prediction

Authors: Prasit Wonglersak, Prakarnkiat Youngkong, Ittipon Cheowanish

Abstract:

This paper aims to improve a fine lapping process of hard disk drive (HDD) lapping machines by removing materials from each slider together with controlling the strip height (SH) variation to minimum value. The standard deviation is the key parameter to evaluate the strip height variation, hence it is minimized. In this paper, a design of experiment (DOE) with factorial analysis by twoway analysis of variance (ANOVA) is adopted to obtain a statistically information. The statistics results reveal that initial stripe height patterns affect the final SH variation. Therefore, initial SH classification using a radial basis function neural network is implemented to achieve the proportional gain prediction.

Keywords: Stripe height variation, Two-way analysis ofvariance (ANOVA), Radial basis function neural network, Proportional gain prediction.

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8907 Phase Equilibrium of Volatile Organic Compounds in Polymeric Solvents Using Group Contribution Methods

Authors: E. Muzenda

Abstract:

Group contribution methods such as the UNIFAC are of major interest to researchers and engineers involved synthesis, feasibility studies, design and optimization of separation processes as well as other applications of industrial use. Reliable knowledge of the phase equilibrium behavior is crucial for the prediction of the fate of the chemical in the environment and other applications. The objective of this study was to predict the solubility of selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in glycol polymers and biodiesel. Measurements can be expensive and time consuming, hence the need for thermodynamic models. The results obtained in this study for the infinite dilution activity coefficients compare very well those published in literature obtained through measurements. It is suggested that in preliminary design or feasibility studies of absorption systems for the abatement of volatile organic compounds, prediction procedures should be implemented while accurate fluid phase equilibrium data should be obtained from experiment.

Keywords: Volatile organic compounds, Prediction, Phaseequilibrium, Environmental, Infinite dilution.

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8906 Stabilization of Angular-Shaped Riprap under Overtopping Flows

Authors: Dilavar Khan, Z. Ahmad

Abstract:

Riprap is mostly used to prevent erosion by flows down the steep slopes in river engineering. A total of 53 stability tests performed on angular riprap with a median stone size ranging from 15 to 278 mm and slope ranging from 1 to 40% are used in this study. The existing equations for the prediction of medium size of angular stones are checked for their accuracy using the available data. Predictions of median size using these equations are not satisfactory and results show deviation by more than ±20% from the observed values. A multivariable power regression analysis is performed to propose a new equation relating the median size with unit discharge, bed slope, riprap thickness and coefficient of uniformity. The proposed relationship satisfactorily predicts the median angular stone size with ±20% error. Further, the required size of the rounded stone is more than the angular stone for the same unit discharge and the ratio increases with unit discharge and also with embankment slope of the riprap.

Keywords: Angularity, Gradation, Riprap, Stabilization

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8905 Comparison of Methods of Estimation for Use in Goodness of Fit Tests for Binary Multilevel Models

Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

Abstract:

It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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8904 Finite Volume Method for Flow Prediction Using Unstructured Meshes

Authors: Juhee Lee, Yongjun Lee

Abstract:

In designing a low-energy-consuming buildings, the heat transfer through a large glass or wall becomes critical. Multiple layers of the window glasses and walls are employed for the high insulation. The gravity driven air flow between window glasses or wall layers is a natural heat convection phenomenon being a key of the heat transfer. For the first step of the natural heat transfer analysis, in this study the development and application of a finite volume method for the numerical computation of viscous incompressible flows is presented. It will become a part of the natural convection analysis with high-order scheme, multi-grid method, and dual-time step in the future. A finite volume method based on a fully-implicit second-order is used to discretize and solve the fluid flow on unstructured grids composed of arbitrary-shaped cells. The integrations of the governing equation are discretised in the finite volume manner using a collocated arrangement of variables. The convergence of the SIMPLE segregated algorithm for the solution of the coupled nonlinear algebraic equations is accelerated by using a sparse matrix solver such as BiCGSTAB. The method used in the present study is verified by applying it to some flows for which either the numerical solution is known or the solution can be obtained using another numerical technique available in the other researches. The accuracy of the method is assessed through the grid refinement.

Keywords: Finite volume method, fluid flow, laminar flow, unstructured grid.

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8903 Application of Artificial Intelligence for Tuning the Parameters of an AGC

Authors: R. N. Patel

Abstract:

This paper deals with the tuning of parameters for Automatic Generation Control (AGC). A two area interconnected hydrothermal system with PI controller is considered. Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms have been applied to optimize the controller parameters. Two objective functions namely Integral Square Error (ISE) and Integral of Time-multiplied Absolute value of the Error (ITAE) are considered for optimization. The effectiveness of an objective function is considered based on the variation in tie line power and change in frequency in both the areas. MATLAB/SIMULINK was used as a simulation tool. Simulation results reveal that ITAE is a better objective function than ISE. Performances of optimization algorithms are also compared and it was found that genetic algorithm gives better results than particle swarm optimization algorithm for the problems of AGC.

Keywords: Area control error, Artificial intelligence, Automatic generation control, Genetic Algorithms and modeling, ISE, ITAE, Particle swarm optimization.

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8902 A Comparison between Artificial Neural Network Prediction Models for Coronal Hole Related High-Speed Streams

Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

Abstract:

Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of the solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulated the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar Cycles (SC) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Coronal Hole Area Feed-Forward neural network models, solar High-Speed Streams, HSSs.

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8901 Assisted Prediction of Hypertension Based on Heart Rate Variability and Improved Residual Networks

Authors: Yong Zhao, Jian He, Cheng Zhang

Abstract:

Cardiovascular disease resulting from hypertension poses a significant threat to human health, and early detection of hypertension can potentially save numerous lives. Traditional methods for detecting hypertension require specialized equipment and are often incapable of capturing continuous blood pressure fluctuations. To address this issue, this study starts by analyzing the principle of heart rate variability (HRV) and introduces the utilization of sliding window and power spectral density (PSD) techniques to analyze both temporal and frequency domain features of HRV. Subsequently, a hypertension prediction network that relies on HRV is proposed, combining Resnet, attention mechanisms, and a multi-layer perceptron. The network leverages a modified ResNet18 to extract frequency domain features, while employing an attention mechanism to integrate temporal domain features, thus enabling auxiliary hypertension prediction through the multi-layer perceptron. The proposed network is trained and tested using the publicly available SHAREE dataset from PhysioNet. The results demonstrate that the network achieves a high prediction accuracy of 92.06% for hypertension, surpassing traditional models such as K Near Neighbor (KNN), Bayes, Logistic regression, and traditional Convolutional Neural Network (CNN).

Keywords: Feature extraction, heart rate variability, hypertension, residual networks.

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8900 Modeling of Surface Roughness in Vibration Cutting by Artificial Neural Network

Authors: H. Soleimanimehr, M. J. Nategh , S. Amini

Abstract:

Development of artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of aluminum workpieces' surface roughness in ultrasonicvibration assisted turning (UAT) has been the subject of the present study. Tool wear as the main cause of surface roughness was also investigated. ANN was trained through experimental data obtained on the basis of full factorial design of experiments. Various influential machining parameters were taken into consideration. It was illustrated that a multilayer perceptron neural network could efficiently model the surface roughness as the response of the network, with an error less than ten percent. The performance of the trained network was verified by further experiments. The results of UAT were compared with the results of conventional turning experiments carried out with similar machining parameters except for the vibration amplitude whence considerable reduction was observed in the built-up edge and the surface roughness.

Keywords: Aluminum, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), BuiltupEdge, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear, Ultrasonic VibrationAssisted Turning (UAT).

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8899 CFD Analysis of Two Phase Flow in a Horizontal Pipe – Prediction of Pressure Drop

Authors: P. Bhramara, V. D. Rao, K. V. Sharma , T. K. K. Reddy

Abstract:

In designing of condensers, the prediction of pressure drop is as important as the prediction of heat transfer coefficient. Modeling of two phase flow, particularly liquid – vapor flow under diabatic conditions inside a horizontal tube using CFD analysis is difficult with the available two phase models in FLUENT due to continuously changing flow patterns. In the present analysis, CFD analysis of two phase flow of refrigerants inside a horizontal tube of inner diameter, 0.0085 m and 1.2 m length is carried out using homogeneous model under adiabatic conditions. The refrigerants considered are R22, R134a and R407C. The analysis is performed at different saturation temperatures and at different flow rates to evaluate the local frictional pressure drop. Using Homogeneous model, average properties are obtained for each of the refrigerants that is considered as single phase pseudo fluid. The so obtained pressure drop data is compared with the separated flow models available in literature.

Keywords: Adiabatic conditions, CFD analysis, Homogeneousmodel and Liquid – Vapor flow.

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8898 Computational Model for Prediction of Soil-Gas Radon-222 Concentration in Soil-Depths and Soil Grain Size Particles

Authors: I. M. Yusuff, O. M. Oni, A. A. Aremu

Abstract:

Percentage of soil-gas radon-222 concentration (222Rn) from soil-depths contributing to outdoor radon atmospheric level depends largely on some physical parameters of the soil. To determine its dependency in soil-depths, survey tests were carried out on soil depths and grain size particles using in-situ measurement method of soil-gas radon-222 concentration at different soil depths. The measurements were carried out with an electronic active radon detector (RAD-7) manufactured by Durridge Company USA. Radon-222 concentrations (222Rn) in soil-gas were measured at four different soil depths of 20, 40, 60 and 100 cm in five feasible locations. At each soil depth, soil samples were collected for grain size particle analysis using soil grasp sampler. The result showed that highest value of radon-222 concentration (24,680 ± 1960 Bqm-3) was measured at 100 cm depth with utmost grain size particle of 17.64% while the lowest concentration (7370 ± 1139 Bqm-3) was measured at 100 cm depth with least grain size particle of 10.75% respectively. A computational model was derived using SPSS regression package. This model could be a yardstick for prediction on soil gas radon concentration reference to soil grain size particle at different soil-depths.

Keywords: Concentration, radon, porosity, diffusion, colorectal, emanation, yardstick.

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8897 From Hype to Ignorance – A Review of 30 Years of Lean Production

Authors: Stefan Schmidt

Abstract:

Lean production (or lean management respectively) gained popularity in several waves. The last three decades have been filled with numerous attempts to apply these concepts in companies. However, this has only been partially successful. The roots of lean production can be traced back to Toyota-s just-in-time production. This concept, which according to Womack-s, Jones- and Roos- research at MIT was employed by Japanese car manufacturers, became popular under its international names “lean production", “lean-manufacturing" and was termed “Schlanke Produktion" in Germany. This contribution shows a review about lean production in Germany over the last thirty years: development, trial & error and implementation as well.

Keywords: Application, JIT, lean production, review, trial and error.

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