Search results for: load estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2413

Search results for: load estimation

1873 Numerical Optimization within Vector of Parameters Estimation in Volatility Models

Authors: J. Arneric, A. Rozga

Abstract:

In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of maximization of the likelihood function using first and second derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically. Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined. The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry), Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla stocks (information-s-communications industry).

Keywords: Heteroscedasticity, Log-likelihood Maximization, Quasi-Newton iteration procedure, Volatility.

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1872 Friction Estimation and Compensation for Steering Angle Control for Highly Automated Driving

Authors: Marcus Walter, Norbert Nitzsche, Dirk Odenthal, Steffen M¨uller

Abstract:

This contribution presents a friction estimator for industrial purposes which identifies Coulomb friction in a steering system. The estimator only needs a few, usually known, steering system parameters. Friction occurs on almost every mechanical system and has a negative influence on high-precision position control. This is demonstrated on a steering angle controller for highly automated driving. In this steering system the friction induces limit cycles which cause oscillating vehicle movement when the vehicle follows a given reference trajectory. When compensating the friction with the introduced estimator, limit cycles can be suppressed. This is demonstrated by measurements in a series vehicle.

Keywords: Friction estimation, friction compensation, steering system, lateral vehicle guidance.

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1871 Application of Build-up and Wash-off Models for an East-Australian Catchment

Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Monzur Alam Imteaz, Mohammed Iqbal Hossain

Abstract:

Estimation of stormwater pollutants is a pre-requisite for the protection and improvement of the aquatic environment and for appropriate management options. The usual practice for the stormwater quality prediction is performed through water quality modeling. However, the accuracy of the prediction by the models depends on the proper estimation of model parameters. This paper presents the estimation of model parameters for a catchment water quality model developed for the continuous simulation of stormwater pollutants from a catchment to the catchment outlet. The model is capable of simulating the accumulation and transportation of the stormwater pollutants; suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from a particular catchment. Rainfall and water quality data were collected for the Hotham Creek Catchment (HTCC), Gold Coast, Australia. Runoff calculations from the developed model were compared with the calculated discharges from the widely used hydrological models, WBNM and DRAINS. Based on the measured water quality data, model water quality parameters were calibrated for the above-mentioned catchment. The calibrated parameters are expected to be helpful for the best management practices (BMPs) of the region. Sensitivity analyses of the estimated parameters were performed to assess the impacts of the model parameters on overall model estimations of runoff water quality.

Keywords: Calibration, Model Parameters, Suspended Solids, TotalNitrogen, Total Phosphorus.

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1870 Comparison of Meshing Stiffness of Altered Tooth Sum Spur Gear Tooth with Different Pressure Angles

Authors: H. K. Sachidananda, K. Raghunandana, B. Shivamurthy

Abstract:

The estimation of gear tooth stiffness is important for finding the load distribution between the gear teeth when two consecutive sets of teeth are in contact. Based on dynamic model a C-program has been developed to compute mesh stiffness. By using this program position dependent mesh stiffness of spur gear tooth for various profile shifts have been computed for a fixed center distance and altering tooth-sum gearing (100 by ± 4%). It is found that the C-program using dynamic model is one of the rapid soft computing technique which helps in design of gears. The mesh tooth stiffness along the path of contact is studied for both 20° and 25° pressure angle gears at various profile shifts. Better tooth stiffness is noticed in case of negative alteration tooth-sum gears compared to standard and positive alteration tooth-sum gears. Also, in case of negative alteration tooth-sum gearing better mesh stiffness is noticed in 20° pressure angle when compared to 25°.

Keywords: Altered tooth-sum gearing, bending fatigue, mesh stiffness, spur gear.

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1869 VFAST TCP: A delay-based enhanced version of FAST TCP

Authors: Salem Belhaj, Moncef Tagina

Abstract:

This paper is aimed at describing a delay-based endto- end (e2e) congestion control algorithm, called Very FAST TCP (VFAST), which is an enhanced version of FAST TCP. The main idea behind this enhancement is to smoothly estimate the Round-Trip Time (RTT) based on a nonlinear filter, which eliminates throughput and queue oscillation when RTT fluctuates. In this context, an evaluation of the suggested scheme through simulation is introduced, by comparing our VFAST prototype with FAST in terms of throughput, queue behavior, fairness, stability, RTT and adaptivity to changes in network. The achieved simulation results indicate that the suggested protocol offer better performance than FAST TCP in terms of RTT estimation and throughput.

Keywords: Fast tcp, RTT, delay estimation, delay-based congestion control, high speed TCP, large bandwidth delay product.

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1868 Kalman Filter Design in Structural Identification with Unknown Excitation

Authors: Z. Masoumi, B. Moaveni

Abstract:

This article is about first step of structural health monitoring by identifying structural system in the presence of unknown input. In the structural system identification, identification of structural parameters such as stiffness and damping are considered. In this study, the Kalman filter (KF) design for structural systems with unknown excitation is expressed. External excitations, such as earthquakes, wind or any other forces are not measured or not available. The purpose of this filter is its strengths to estimate the state variables of the system in the presence of unknown input. Also least squares estimation (LSE) method with unknown input is studied. Estimates of parameters have been adopted. Finally, using two examples advantages and drawbacks of both methods are studied.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, Kalman filter, Least square estimation, structural system identification.

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1867 Fuzzy Controller Design for TCSC to Improve Power Oscillations Damping

Authors: M Nayeripour, H. Khorsand, A. Roosta, T. Niknam, E. Azad

Abstract:

Series compensators have been used for many years, to increase the stability and load ability of transmission line. They compensate retarded or advanced volt drop of transmission lines by placing advanced or retarded voltage in series with them to compensate the effective reactance, which cause to increase load ability of transmission lines. In this paper, two method of fuzzy controller, based on power reference tracking and impedance reference tracking have been developed on TCSC controller in order to increase load ability and improving power oscillation damping of system. In these methods, fire angle of thyristors are determined directly through the special Rule-bases with the error and change of error as the inputs. The simulation results of two area four- machines power system show the good performance of power oscillation damping in system. Comparison of this method with classical PI controller shows the increasing speed of system response in power oscillation damping.

Keywords: TCSC, Two area network, Fuzzy controller, Power oscillation damping.

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1866 Determination of Regimes of the Equivalent Generator Based On Projective Geometry: The Generalized Equivalent Generator

Authors: A. A. Penin

Abstract:

Requirements that should be met when determining the regimes of circuits with variable elements are formulated. The interpretation of the variations in the regimes, based on projective geometry, enables adequate expressions for determining and comparing the regimes to be derived. It is proposed to use as the parameters of a generalized equivalent generator of an active two-pole with changeable resistor such load current and voltage which provide the current through this resistor equal to zero.

Keywords: Equivalent generator, geometric circuits theory, circuits regimes, load characteristics, variable elements.

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1865 Comparison of Two-Phase Critical Flow Models for Estimation of Leak Flow Rate through Cracks

Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

Abstract:

The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: Crack, critical flow, leak, roughness.

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1864 Bearing Capacity of Sheet Hanger Connection to the Trapezoidal Metal Sheet

Authors: Kateřina Jurdová

Abstract:

Hanging to the trapezoidal sheet by decking hanger is a very widespread solution used in civil engineering to lead the distribution of energy, sanitary, air distribution system etc. under the roof or floor structure. The trapezoidal decking hanger is usually a part of the whole installation system for specific distribution medium. The leading companies offer installation systems for each specific distribution e.g. pipe rings, sprinkler systems, installation channels etc. Every specific part is connected to the base connector which is decking hanger. The own connection has three main components: decking hanger, threaded bar with nuts and web of trapezoidal sheet. The aim of this contribution is determinate the failure mechanism of each component in connection. Load bearing capacity of most components in connection could be calculated by formulas in European codes. This contribution is focused on problematic of bearing resistance of threaded bar in web of trapezoidal sheet. This issue is studied by experimental research and numerical modelling. This contribution presented the initial results of experiment which is compared with numerical model of specimen.

Keywords: Decking hanger, concentrated load, connection, load bearing capacity, trapezoidal metal sheet.

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1863 Study the Behavior of Different Composite Short Columns (DST) with Prismatic Sections under Bending Load

Authors: V. Sadeghi Balkanlou, M. Reza Bagerzadeh Karimi, A. Hasanbakloo, B. Bagheri Azar

Abstract:

In this paper, the behavior of different types of DST columns has been studied under bending load. Briefly, composite columns consist of an internal carbon steel tube and an external stainless steel wall that the between the walls are filled with concrete. Composite columns are expected to combine the advantages of all three materials and have the advantage of high flexural stiffness of CFDST columns. In this research, ABAQUS software is used for finite element analysis then the results of ultimate strength of the composite sections are illustrated.

Keywords: DST, Stainless steel, carbon steel, ABAQUS, Straigh Columns, Tapered Columns.

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1862 Economical Analysis of Thermal Energy Storage by Partially Operation

Authors: Z. Noranai, M.Z. Md Yusof

Abstract:

Building Sector is the major electricity consumer and it is costly to building owners. Therefore the application of thermal energy storage (TES) has gained attractive to reduce energy cost. Many attractive tariff packages are being offered by the electricity provider to promote TES. The tariff packages offered higher cost of electricity during peak period and lower cost of electricity during off peak period. This paper presented the return of initial investment by implementing a centralized air-conditioning plant integrated with thermal energy storage with partially operation strategies. Building load profile will be calculated hourly according to building specification and building usage trend. TES operation conditions will be designed according to building load demand profile, storage capacity, tariff packages and peak/off peak period. The Payback Period analysis method was used to evaluate economic analysis. The investment is considered a good investment where by the initial cost is recovered less than ten than seven years.

Keywords: building load profile, energy consumption, payback period, thermal energy storage

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1861 Parameter Estimation using Maximum Likelihood Method from Flight Data at High Angles of Attack

Authors: Rakesh Kumar, A. K. Ghosh

Abstract:

The paper presents the modeling of nonlinear longitudinal aerodynamics using flight data of Hansa-3 aircraft at high angles of attack near stall. The Kirchhoff-s quasi-steady stall model has been used to incorporate nonlinear aerodynamic effects in the aerodynamic model used to estimate the parameters, thereby, making the aerodynamic model nonlinear. The Maximum Likelihood method has been applied to the flight data (at high angles of attack) for the estimation of parameters (aerodynamic and stall characteristics) using the nonlinear aerodynamic model. To improve the accuracy level of the estimates, an approach of fixing the strong parameters has also been presented.

Keywords: Maximum Likelihood, nonlinear, parameters, stall.

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1860 A Proposed Framework for Visualization to Teach Computer Science

Authors: Muhammed Yousoof, Mohd Sapiyan, Khaja Kamaluddin

Abstract:

Computer programming is considered a very difficult course by many computer science students. The reasons for the difficulties include cognitive load involved in programming, different learning styles of students, instructional methodology and the choice of the programming languages. To reduce the difficulties the following have been tried: pair programming, program visualization, different learning styles etc. However, these efforts have produced limited success. This paper reviews the problem and proposes a framework to help students overcome the difficulties involved.

Keywords: Cognitive Load, Instructional Models, LearningStyles, Program Visualization.

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1859 The Cost and Benefit on the Investment in Safety and Health of the Enterprises in Thailand

Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.

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1858 Estimation of Production Function in Fishery on the Coasts of Caspian Sea

Authors: Komeil Jahanifar, Zahra Abedi, Yaghob Zeraatkish

Abstract:

This research was conducted for the first time at the southeastern coasts of the Caspian Sea in order to evaluate the performance of osteichthyes cooperatives through production (catch) function. Using one of the indirect valuation methods in this research, contributory factors in catch were identified and were inserted into the function as independent variables. In order to carry out this research, the performance of 25 Osteichthyes catching cooperatives in the utilization year of 2009 which were involved in fishing in Miankale wildlife refuge region. The contributory factors in catch were divided into groups of economic, ecological and biological factors. In the mentioned function, catch rate of the cooperative were inserted into as the dependant variable and fourteen partial variables in terms of nine general variables as independent variables. Finally, after function estimation, seven variables were rendered significant at 99 percent reliably level. The results of the function estimation indicated that human resource (fisherman quantity) had the greatest positive effect on catch rate with an influence coefficient of 1.7 while weather conditions had the greatest negative effect on the catch rate of cooperatives with an influence coefficient of -2.07. Moreover, factors like member's share, experience and fisherman training and fishing effort played the main roles in the catch rate of cooperative with influence coefficients of 0.81, 0.5 and 0.21, respectively.

Keywords: Production Function, Coefficient, Variable, Osteichthyes, Caspian Sea

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1857 On SNR Estimation by the Likelihood of near Pitch for Speech Detection

Authors: Young-Hwan Song, Doo-Heon Kyun, Jong-Kuk Kim, Myung-Jin Bae

Abstract:

People have the habitual pitch level which is used when people say something generally. However this pitch should be changed irregularly in the presence of noise. So it is useful to estimate SNR of speech signal by pitch. In this paper, we obtain the energy of input speech signal and then we detect a stationary region on voiced speech. And we get the pitch period by NAMDF for the stationary region that is not varied pitch rapidly. After getting pitch, each frame is divided by pitch period and the likelihood of closed pitch is estimated. In this paper, we proposed new parameter, NLF, to estimate the SNR of received speech signal. The NLF is derived from the correlation of near pitch periods. The NLF is obtained for each stationary region in voiced speech. Finally we confirmed good performance of the estimation of the SNR of received input speech in the presence of noise.

Keywords: Likelihood, pitch, SNR, speech.

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1856 Critical Points of Prefabricated Reinforced Concrete Wall Systems of Multi-storey Buildings

Authors: J. Witzany, T. Čejka, R. Zigler

Abstract:

With respect to the dissipation of energy through plastic deformation of joints of prefabricated wall units, the paper points out the principal importance of efficient reinforcement of the prefabricated system at its joints. The method, quality and amount of reinforcement are essential for reaching the necessary degree of joint ductility. The paper presents partial results of experimental research of vertical joints of prefabricated units exposed to monotonously rising loading and repetitive shear force and formulates a conclusion that the limit state of the structure as a whole is preceded by the disintegration of joints, or that the structure tends to pass from linearly elastic behaviour to non-linearly elastic to plastic behaviour by exceeding the proportional elastic limit in joints.Experimental verification on a model of a 7-storey prefabricated structure revealed weak points in its load-bearing systems, mainly at places of critical points around openings situated in close proximity to vertical joints of mutually perpendicularly oriented walls.

Keywords: dissipative energy, dynamic and cycling load repetitive load, working diagrams of joints

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1855 ICT for Smart Appliances: Current Technology and Identification of Future ICT Trend

Authors: Abubakar Uba Ibrahim, Ibrahim Haruna Shanono

Abstract:

Smart metering and demand response are gaining ground in industrial and residential applications. Smart Appliances have been given concern towards achieving Smart home. The success of Smart grid development relies on the successful implementation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in power sector. Smart Appliances have been the technology under development and many new contributions to its realization have been reported in the last few years. The role of ICT here is to capture data in real time, thereby allowing bi-directional flow of information/data between producing and utilization point; that lead a way for the attainment of Smart appliances where home appliances can communicate between themselves and provide a self-control (switch on and off) using the signal (information) obtained from the grid. This paper depicts the background on ICT for smart appliances paying a particular attention to the current technology and identifying the future ICT trends for load monitoring through which smart appliances can be achieved to facilitate an efficient smart home system which promote demand response program. This paper grouped and reviewed the recent contributions, in order to establish the current state of the art and trends of the technology, so that the reader can be provided with a comprehensive and insightful review of where ICT for smart appliances stands and is heading to. The paper also presents a brief overview of communication types, and then narrowed the discussion to the load monitoring (Non-intrusive Appliances Load Monitoring ‘NALM’). Finally, some future trends and challenges in the further development of the ICT framework are discussed to motivate future contributions that address open problems and explore new possibilities.

Keywords: Communication technology between appliances, demand response, load monitoring, smart appliances and smart grid.

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1854 Applying Sequential Pattern Mining to Generate Block for Scheduling Problems

Authors: Meng-Hui Chen, Chen-Yu Kao, Chia-Yu Hsu, Pei-Chann Chang

Abstract:

The main idea in this paper is using sequential pattern mining to find the information which is helpful for finding high performance solutions. By combining this information, it is defined as blocks. Using the blocks to generate artificial chromosomes (ACs) could improve the structure of solutions. Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs) is adapted to solve the combinatorial problems. Nevertheless many of these approaches are advantageous for this application, but only some of them are used to enhance the efficiency of application. Generating ACs uses patterns and EDAs could increase the diversity. According to the experimental result, the algorithm which we proposed has a better performance to solve the permutation flow-shop problems.

Keywords: Combinatorial problems, Sequential Pattern Mining, Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, Artificial Chromosomes.

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1853 Alternative Robust Estimators for the Shape Parameters of the Burr XII Distribution

Authors: F. Z. Doğru, O. Arslan

Abstract:

In general, classical methods such as maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares (LS) estimation methods are used to estimate the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. However, these estimators are very sensitive to the outliers. To overcome this problem we propose alternative robust estimators based on the M-estimation method for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators over the ML and the LS estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed robust estimators generally outperform the classical estimators in terms of bias and root mean square errors when there are outliers in data.

Keywords: Burr XII distribution, robust estimator, M-estimator, maximum likelihood, least squares.

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1852 Analysis of Thermal Deformation of a Rough Slider and Its Asperities and Its Impact on Load Generation in Parallel Sliders

Authors: Prawal Sinha, Getachew Adamu

Abstract:

Heating is inevitable in any bearing operation. This leads to not only the thinning of the lubricant but also could lead to a thermal deformation of the bearing. The present work is an attempt to analyze the influence of thermal deformation on the thermohydrodynamic lubrication of infinitely long tilted pad slider rough bearings. As a consequence of heating the slider is deformed and is assumed to take a parabolic shape. Also the asperities expand leading to smaller effective film thickness. Two different types of surface roughness are considered: longitudinal roughness and transverse roughness. Christensen-s stochastic approach is used to derive the Reynolds-type equations. Density and viscosity are considered to be temperature dependent. The modified Reynolds equation, momentum equation, continuity equation and energy equation are decoupled and solved using finite difference method to yield various bearing characteristics. From the numerical simulations it is observed that the performance of the bearing is significantly affected by the thermal distortion of the slider and asperities and even the parallel sliders seem to carry some load.

Keywords: Thermal Deformation, Tilted pad slider bearing, longitudinal roughness, transverse roughness, load capacity

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1851 Estimating Regression Effects in Com Poisson Generalized Linear Model

Authors: Vandna Jowaheer, Naushad A. Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Com Poisson distribution is capable of modeling the count responses irrespective of their mean variance relation and the parameters of this distribution when fitted to a simple cross sectional data can be efficiently estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) method. In the regression setup, however, ML estimation of the parameters of the Com Poisson based generalized linear model is computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose to use quasilikelihood (QL) approach to estimate the effect of the covariates on the Com Poisson counts and investigate the performance of this method with respect to the ML method. QL estimates are consistent and almost as efficient as ML estimates. The simulation studies show that the efficiency loss in the estimation of all the parameters using QL approach as compared to ML approach is quite negligible, whereas QL approach is lesser involving than ML approach.

Keywords: Com Poisson, Cross-sectional, Maximum Likelihood, Quasi likelihood

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1850 Design and Study of a DC/DC Converter for High Power, 14.4 V and 300 A for Automotive Applications

Authors: Julio Cesar Lopes de Oliveira, Carlos Henrique Gonc¸alves Treviso

Abstract:

The shortage of the automotive market in relation to options for sources of high power car audio systems, led to development of this work. Thus, we developed a source with stabilized voltage with 4320 W effective power. Designed to the voltage of 14.4 V and a choice of two currents: 30 A load option in battery banks and 300 A at full load. This source can also be considered as a source of general use dedicated commercial with a simple control circuit in analog form based on discrete components. The assembly of power circuit uses a methodology for higher power than the initially stipulated.

Keywords: DC-DC power converters, converters, power convertion, pulse width modulation converters.

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1849 Finite Element Application to Estimate Inservice Material Properties using Miniature Specimen

Authors: G. Partheepan, D.K. Sehgal, R.K. Pandey

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for determining the uniaxial tensile properties such as Young-s modulus, yield strength and the flow behaviour of a material in a virtually non-destructive manner. To achieve this, a new dumb-bell shaped miniature specimen has been designed. This helps in avoiding the removal of large size material samples from the in-service component for the evaluation of current material properties. The proposed miniature specimen has an advantage in finite element modelling with respect to computational time and memory space. Test fixtures have been developed to enable the tension tests on the miniature specimen in a testing machine. The studies have been conducted in a chromium (H11) steel and an aluminum alloy (AR66). The output from the miniature test viz. load-elongation diagram is obtained and the finite element simulation of the test is carried out using a 2D plane stress analysis. The results are compared with the experimental results. It is observed that the results from the finite element simulation corroborate well with the miniature test results. The approach seems to have potential to predict the mechanical properties of the materials, which could be used in remaining life estimation of the various in-service structures.

Keywords: ABAQUS, finite element, miniature test, tensileproperties

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1848 Non-Parametric, Unconditional Quantile Estimation of Efficiency in Microfinance Institutions

Authors: Komlan Sedzro

Abstract:

We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance.

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1847 Asymmetrical Informative Estimation for Macroeconomic Model: Special Case in the Tourism Sector of Thailand

Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

Abstract:

This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: Thailand tourism, maximum entropy bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information.

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1846 Remarks Regarding Queuing Model and Packet Loss Probability for the Traffic with Self-Similar Characteristics

Authors: Mihails Kulikovs, Ernests Petersons

Abstract:

Network management techniques have long been of interest to the networking research community. The queue size plays a critical role for the network performance. The adequate size of the queue maintains Quality of Service (QoS) requirements within limited network capacity for as many users as possible. The appropriate estimation of the queuing model parameters is crucial for both initial size estimation and during the process of resource allocation. The accurate resource allocation model for the management system increases the network utilization. The present paper demonstrates the results of empirical observation of memory allocation for packet-based services.

Keywords: Queuing System, Packet Loss Probability, Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC), Performanceevaluation, Quality of Service (QoS).

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1845 ANFIS Modeling of the Surface Roughness in Grinding Process

Authors: H. Baseri, G. Alinejad

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to design an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of surface roughness in grinding process. The Used data have been generated from experimental observations when the wheel has been dressed using a rotary diamond disc dresser. The input parameters of model are dressing speed ratio, dressing depth and dresser cross-feed rate and output parameter is surface roughness. In the experimental procedure the grinding conditions are constant and only the dressing conditions are varied. The comparison of the predicted values and the experimental data indicates that the ANFIS model has a better performance with respect to back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model which has been presented by the authors in previous work for estimation of the surface roughness.

Keywords: Grinding, ANFIS, Neural network, Disc dressing.

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1844 An Experimental Investigation of Heating in Induction Motors

Authors: R. Khaldi, N. Benamrouche, M. Bouheraoua

Abstract:

The ability to predict an accurate temperature distribution requires the knowledge of the losses, the thermal characteristics of the materials, and the cooling conditions, all of which are very difficult to quantify. In this paper, the impact of the effects of iron and copper losses are investigated separately and their effects on the heating in various points of the stator of an induction motor, is highlighted by using two simple tests. In addition, the effect of a defect, such as an open circuit in a phase of the stator, on the heating is also obtained by a no-load test. The squirrel cage induction motor is rated at 2.2 kW; 380 V; 5.2 A; Δ connected; 50 Hz; 1420 rpm and the class of insulation F, has been thermally tested under several load conditions. Several thermocouples were placed in strategic points of the stator.

Keywords: induction motor, temperature, heating, losses

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