Search results for: Chaotic time series

Authors: Abdulrahim Shamayleh, John Fowler, Muhong Zhang

Abstract:

Operating rooms are important assets for hospitals as they generate the largest revenue and, at the same time, produce the largest cost for hospitals. The model presented in this paper helps make capacity planning decisions on the combination of open operating rooms (ORs) and estimated overtime to satisfy the allocated OR time to each specialty. The model combines both decisions on determining the amount of OR time to open and to allocate to different surgical specialties. The decisions made are based on OR costs, overutilization and underutilization costs, and contribution margins from allocating OR time. The results show the importance of having a good estimate of specialty usage of OR time to determine the amount of needed capacity and highlighted the tradeoff that the OR manager faces between opening more ORs versus extending the working time of the ORs already in use.

Keywords: capacity planning, contribution margins, operating room, overutilization

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Authors: Ashwani K. Rana, Narottam Chand, Vinod Kapoor

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In this paper, gate leakage current has been mitigated by the use of novel nanoscale MOSFET with Source/Drain-to-Gate Non-overlapped and high-k spacer structure for the first time. A compact analytical model has been developed to study the gate leakage behaviour of proposed MOSFET structure. The result obtained has found good agreement with the Sentaurus Simulation. Fringing gate electric field through the dielectric spacer induces inversion layer in the non-overlap region to act as extended S/D region. It is found that optimal Source/Drain-to-Gate Non-overlapped and high-k spacer structure has reduced the gate leakage current to great extent as compared to those of an overlapped structure. Further, the proposed structure had improved off current, subthreshold slope and DIBL characteristic. It is concluded that this structure solves the problem of high leakage current without introducing the extra series resistance.

Keywords: Gate tunneling current, analytical model, spacer dielectrics, DIBL, subthreshold slope.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: Ilias A. Makris

Abstract:

In this work, we attempt to associate firm characteristics with innovative activity. We collect microdata from listed firms of selected Eurozone Country-members, after the beginning of 2007 financial crisis. The following literature, several indicators of growth and performance were selected and tested for their ability to interpret innovative activity. The main scope is to examine the possible differences in performance and growth between innovative and non-innovative firms, during a severe recession. Additionally to that, a special focus will be held on whether macroeconomic performance and national innovation system, determines the extent of innovators' performance. Preliminary findings, through correlation matrices and non-parametric tests, strongly indicate the positive relation between innovative activity and most of the measures used (profitability, size, employment), confirming that even during a recessionary period, innovative firms not only survive but also seem to succeed better economic results in almost all indexes relative to non-innovative. However, even though innovators seem to perform better in all economies examined, the extent of that performance seems to be strongly affected by the supportive mechanisms (financial and structural) that their country provides. Thus, it is clear, that the technologically intensive 'gap' between European South and North, during the economic crisis, became chaotic, due to the harsh austerity measures and reduced budgets in those countries, even in sectors with high potentials in economic activity and employment, impairing the effects of crisis and enhancing the vicious circle of recession.

Keywords: Eurozone, innovative activity, development, firm performance, non-parametric tests.

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Authors: A. R. Ismail, N. Jusoh, M. Z. Nuawi, B. M. Deros, N. K. Makhtar, M. N. A. Rahman

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The objective of this study is to determine the thermal comfort among worker at Malaysian automotive industry. One critical manual assembly workstation had been chosen as a subject for the study. The human subjects for the study constitute operators at Body Assembly Station of the factory. The environment examined was the Relative Humidity (%), Airflow (m/s), Air Temperature (°C) and Radiant Temperature (°C) of the surrounding workstation area. The environmental factors were measured using Babuc apparatus, which is capable to measure simultaneously those mentioned environmental factors. The time series data of fluctuating level of factors were plotted to identify the significant changes of factors. Then thermal comfort of the workers were assessed by using ISO Standard 7730 Thermal sensation scale by using Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). Further Predicted percentage dissatisfied (PPD) is used to estimate the thermal comfort satisfaction of the occupant. Finally the PPD versus PMV were plotted to present the thermal comfort scenario of workers involved in related workstation. The result of PMV at the related industry is between 1.8 and 2.3, where PPD at that building is between 60% to 84%. The survey result indicated that the temperature more influenced comfort to the occupants

Keywords: Thermal, Comfort, Temperature, PPD, PMV

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Authors: Jalal Karam

Abstract:

Years of extensive research in the field of speech processing for compression and recognition in the last five decades, resulted in a severe competition among the various methods and paradigms introduced. In this paper we include the different representations of speech in the time-frequency and time-scale domains for the purpose of compression and recognition. The examination of these representations in a variety of related work is accomplished. In particular, we emphasize methods related to Fourier analysis paradigms and wavelet based ones along with the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches.

Keywords: Time-Scale, Wavelets, Time-Frequency, Compression, Recognition.

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Authors: S. Homrossukon, W. Parinyasart

Abstract:

This is an applied research to propose the method for price quotation for a contract electronics manufacturer. It has had a precise price quoting method but such method could not quickly provide a result as the customer required. This reduces the ability of company to compete in this kind of business. In this case, the cause of long time quotation process was analyzed. A lot of product features have been demanded by customer. By checking routine processes, it was found that high fraction of quoting time was used for production time estimating which has effected to the manufacturing or production cost. Then the historical data of products including types, number of components, assembling method, and their assembling time were used to analyze the key components affecting to production time. The price quoting model then was proposed. The implementation of proposed model was able to remarkably reduce quoting time with an acceptable required precision.

Keywords: Price quoting, Contract manufacturer, Stepwise technique, Best subset technique.

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Authors: Thomas Bryan, Veton Kepuska, Ivica Kostanic

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Speaker recognition is performed in high Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) environments using principals of Computational Auditory Scene Analysis (CASA). CASA methods often classify sounds from images in the time-frequency (T-F) plane using spectrograms or cochleargrams as the image. In this paper atomic decomposition implemented by matching pursuit performs a transform from time series speech signals to the T-F plane. The atomic decomposition creates a sparsely populated T-F vector in “weight space” where each populated T-F position contains an amplitude weight. The weight space vector along with the atomic dictionary represents a denoised, compressed version of the original signal. The arraignment or of the atomic indices in the T-F vector are used for classification. Unsupervised feature learning implemented by a sparse autoencoder learns a single dictionary of basis features from a collection of envelope samples from all speakers. The approach is demonstrated using pairs of speakers from the TIMIT data set. Pairs of speakers are selected randomly from a single district. Each speak has 10 sentences. Two are used for training and 8 for testing. Atomic index probabilities are created for each training sentence and also for each test sentence. Classification is performed by finding the lowest Euclidean distance between then probabilities from the training sentences and the test sentences. Training is done at a 30dB Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). Testing is performed at SNR’s of 0 dB, 5 dB, 10 dB and 30dB. The algorithm has a baseline classification accuracy of ~93% averaged over 10 pairs of speakers from the TIMIT data set. The baseline accuracy is attributable to short sequences of training and test data as well as the overall simplicity of the classification algorithm. The accuracy is not affected by AWGN and produces ~93% accuracy at 0dB SNR.

Keywords: Time-frequency plane, atomic decomposition, envelope sampling, Gabor atoms, matching pursuit, sparse dictionary learning, sparse autoencoder.

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Authors: Vitaliy Tayanov

Abstract:

In this paper we present the algorithm which allows us to have an object tracking close to real time in Full HD videos. The frame rate (FR) of a video stream is considered to be between 5 and 30 frames per second. The real time track building will be achieved if the algorithm can follow 5 or more frames per second. The principle idea is to use fast algorithms when doing preprocessing to obtain the key points and track them after. The procedure of matching points during assignment is hardly dependent on the number of points. Because of this we have to limit pointed number of points using the most informative of them.

Keywords: video tracking, real-time, Hungarian algorithm, Full HD video.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

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This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H8 state-feedback controller for a class of nonlinear two-time scale systems with Markovian Jumps described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear two-time scale systems to have an H8 performance are derived. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard nonlinear two-time scale systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: TS fuzzy, Markovian jumps, LMI, two-time scale systems.

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: Tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy, Microsoft Excel.

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Authors: Sašo Pečnik, Borut Žalik

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This paper presents a real-time visualization technique and filtering of classified LiDAR point clouds. The visualization is capable of displaying filtered information organized in layers by the classification attribute saved within LiDAR datasets. We explain the used data structure and data management, which enables real-time presentation of layered LiDAR data. Real-time visualization is achieved with LOD optimization based on the distance from the observer without loss of quality. The filtering process is done in two steps and is entirely executed on the GPU and implemented using programmable shaders.

Keywords: Filtering, graphics, level-of-details, LiDAR, realtime visualization.

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Authors: K. P. Oyeduntan, K. Oshinubi

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Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the sparkplug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria.

Keywords: Economy, GDP, maritime transport, port, regression.

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Authors: C. B. Vishwakarma

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The author presented a method for model order reduction of large-scale time-invariant systems in time domain. In this approach, two modified Hankel matrices are suggested for getting reduced order models. The proposed method is simple, efficient and retains stability feature of the original high order system. The viability of the method is illustrated through the examples taken from literature.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Stability, Hankel Matrix, Time-Domain, Integral Square Error.

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the  prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on  horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological  data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine  duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design  and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based  prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system  based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the  proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results  were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing  empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the  advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series  solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Networks, Global Solar Radiation, Multi-layer perceptron, gradient, Root Mean Square Error.

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Authors: Shu Lü, Shouming Zhong, Zixin Liu

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In this paper, the robust exponential stability problem of discrete-time uncertain stochastic neural networks with timevarying delays is investigated. By introducing a new augmented Lyapunov function, some delay-dependent stable results are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. Compared with some existing results in the literature, the conservatism of the new criteria is reduced notably. Three numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the less conservatism and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Robust exponential stability, delay-dependent stability, discrete-time neural networks, stochastic, time-varying delays.

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Authors: Xiangbin Zhu

Abstract:

EDF (Early Deadline First) algorithm is a very important scheduling algorithm for real- time systems . The EDF algorithm assigns priorities to each job according to their absolute deadlines and has good performance when the real-time system is not overloaded. When the real-time system is overloaded, many misdeadlines will be produced. But these misdeadlines are not uniformly distributed, which usually focus on some tasks. In this paper, we present an adaptive fuzzy control scheduling based on EDF algorithm. The improved algorithm can have a rectangular distribution of misdeadline ratios among all real-time tasks when the system is overloaded. To evaluate the effectiveness of the improved algorithm, we have done extensive simulation studies. The simulation results show that the new algorithm is superior to the old algorithm.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, real-time systems, EDF, misdeadline ratio.

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Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

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Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information about Earthquake Existed throughout history & the Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of the object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, Prediction, RBF neural network.

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Authors: Fazeera Ujin, Kamran Shavarebi Ali, Zarina Yasmin Hanur Harith

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This research paper reports on the feasibility and viability of eggshells ash and its effects on the water content and setting time of cement. An experiment was carried out to determine the quantity of water required in order to follow standard cement paste of normal consistency in accordance with MS EN 196-3:2007. The eggshells ash passing the 90µm sieve was used in the investigation. Eggshells ash with percentage of 0%, 0.1%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% were constituted to replace the cement. Chemical properties of both eggshells ash and cement are compared. From the results obtained, both eggshells ash and cement have the same chemical composition and primary composition which is the calcium compounds. Results from the setting time show that by adding the eggshells ash to the cement, the setting time of the cement decreases. In short, the higher amount of eggshells ash, the faster the rate of setting and apply to all percentage of eggshells ash that were used in this investigation. Both initial and final setting times fulfill the setting time requirements by Malaysian Standard. Hence, it is suggested that eggshells ash can be used as an admixture in concrete mix.

Keywords: Construction Materials, Eggshells Ash, Solid Waste, Setting Time.

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Authors: Irena Palić

Abstract:

The main objective of the research in this paper is to empirically assess the causal relationship of private savings and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Households’ savings are approximated by household deposits in banks, while domestic income is approximated by industrial production volume indices. Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality tests are used to in order to analyse the relationship among private savings and economic growth. Since ADF unit root tests have shown that both mentioned series are non stationary at levels, series are first differenced in order to become stationary. Therefore, VAR model is estimated with percentage change in private savings and percentage change in domestic income, which can be interpreted as economic growth in case of positive percentage change in domestic income. The Granger causality test has shown that there is no causal relationship among private savings and economic growth in Croatia. The impulse response functions have shown that the impact of shock in domestic income on private savings change is stronger than the impact of private saving on growth. Variance decompositions show that both economic growth and private saving change explain the largest part of its own forecast variance. The research has shown that the link between private savings economic and growth in Croatia is weak, what is in line with relevant empirical research in small open economies.

Keywords: Economic growth, Granger causality, innovation analysis, private savings, Vector Autoregression model.

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Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

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This paper considers the robust exponential stability issues for a class of uncertain switched neutral system which delays switched according to the switching rule. The system under consideration includes both stable and unstable subsystems. The uncertainties considered in this paper are norm bounded, and possibly time varying. Based on multiple Lyapunov functional approach and dwell-time technique, the time-dependent switching rule is designed depend on the so-called average dwell time of stable subsystems as well as the ratio of the total activation time of stable subsystems and unstable subsystems. It is shown that by suitably controlling the switching between the stable and unstable modes, the robust stabilization of the switched uncertain neutral systems can be achieved. Two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Switched neutral system, exponential stability, multiple Lyapunov functional, dwell time technique, time-dependent switching rule.

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Authors: Eleni Giouli

Abstract:

Distance learning provides a flexible approach to education, enabling busy learners to complete their coursework at their own pace, on their own schedule, and from a convenient location. This flexibility combined with a series of other issues; make the benefits of lifelong distance learning numerous. The purpose of the paper is to investigate whether distance education can contribute to the improvement of adult skills in Greece, highlighting in this way the necessity of the lifelong distance learning. To investigate this goal, a questionnaire is constructed and analyzed based on responses from 3,016 attendees of lifelong distance learning programs in the e-learning of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in Greece. In order to do so, a series of relationships is examined including the effects of a) the gender, b) the previous educational level, c) the current employment status, and d) the method used in the distance learning program, on the development of new general, technical, administrative, social, cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills. The basic conclusions that emerge after using a binary logistic framework are that the following factors are critical in order to develop new skills: the gender, the education level and the educational method used in the lifelong distance learning program. The skills more significantly affected by those factors are the acquiring new skills in general, as well as acquiring general, language and cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills, while for technical and social skills only gender and educational method play a crucial role. Moreover, routine skills and social skills are not affected by the four factors included in the analysis.

Keywords: Adult skills, distance learning, education, lifelong learning.

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Authors: Liyakathunisa, V. K. Ananthashayana

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Crucial information barely visible to the human eye is often embedded in a series of low resolution images taken of the same scene. Super resolution reconstruction is the process of combining several low resolution images into a single higher resolution image. The ideal algorithm should be fast, and should add sharpness and details, both at edges and in regions without adding artifacts. In this paper we propose a super resolution blind reconstruction technique for linearly degraded images. In our proposed technique the algorithm is divided into three parts an image registration, wavelets based fusion and an image restoration. In this paper three low resolution images are considered which may sub pixels shifted, rotated, blurred or noisy, the sub pixel shifted images are registered using affine transformation model; A wavelet based fusion is performed and the noise is removed using soft thresolding. Our proposed technique reduces blocking artifacts and also smoothens the edges and it is also able to restore high frequency details in an image. Our technique is efficient and computationally fast having clear perspective of real time implementation.

Keywords: Affine Transforms, Denoiseing, DWT, Fusion, Image registration.

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Authors: Rusudan Kinkladze, Guguli Kurashvili, Ketevan Chitaladze

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Foreign direct investment is a driving force in the development of the interdependent national economies, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. It is particularly important for transitional economies, such as Georgia, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. Consequently, the goal of the research is the study and analysis of direct foreign investments in Georgia, and identification and forecasting of modern trends, and covers the period of 2006-2015. The study uses the methods of statistical observation, grouping and analysis, the methods of analytical indicators of time series, trend identification and the predicted values are calculated, as well as various literary and Internet sources relevant to the research. The findings showed that modern investment policy In Georgia is favorable for domestic as well as foreign investors. Georgia is still a net importer of investments. In 2015, the top 10 investing countries was led by Azerbaijan, United Kingdom and Netherlands, and the largest share of FDIs were allocated in the transport and communication sector; the financial sector was the second, followed by the health and social work sector, and the same trend will continue in the future. 

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investments, methods, statistics, analysis.

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Authors: Ting (Grace) Lin, Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia, Todd Robinson

Abstract:

Accessibility analysis, examining people’s ability to access facilities and destinations, is a fundamental assessment for transport planning, policy making, and social exclusion research. Dynamic accessibility which measures accessibility in real-time traffic environment has been an advanced accessibility indicator in transport research. It is also a useful indicator to help travelers to understand travel time daily variability, assists traffic engineers to monitor traffic congestions, and finally develop effective strategies in order to mitigate traffic congestions. This research involved real-time traffic information by collecting travel time data with 15-minute interval via the TomTom^® API. A framework for measuring dynamic accessibility was then developed based on the gravity theory and accessibility dichotomy theory through space and time interpolation. Finally, the dynamic accessibility can be derived at any given time and location under dynamic accessibility spatial analysis framework.

Keywords: Dynamic accessibility, space-time continuum, transport research, TomTom® API.

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Authors: Xinhui Wang, Xiuyong Ding

Abstract:

This paper addresses the controller synthesis problem of discrete-time switched positive systems with bounded time-varying delays. Based on the switched copositive Lyapunov function approach, some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of state-feedback controller are presented as a set of linear programming and linear matrix inequality problems, hence easy to be verified. Another advantage is that the state-feedback law is independent on time-varying delays and initial conditions. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed controller.

Keywords: Switched copositive Lyapunov functions, positive linear systems, switched systems, time-varying delays, stabilization.

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Authors: Haoyu Ma, Bin Hu, Mike Jackson, Jingzhi Yan, Wen Zhao

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In this paper we propose a new classification method for automatic sleep scoring using an artificial neural network based decision tree. It attempts to treat sleep scoring progress as a series of two-class problems and solves them with a decision tree made up of a group of neural network classifiers, each of which uses a special feature set and is aimed at only one specific sleep stage in order to maximize the classification effect. A single electroencephalogram (EEG) signal is used for our analysis rather than depending on multiple biological signals, which makes greatly simplifies the data acquisition process. Experimental results demonstrate that the average epoch by epoch agreement between the visual and the proposed method in separating 30s wakefulness+S1, REM, S2 and SWS epochs was 88.83%. This study shows that the proposed method performed well in all the four stages, and can effectively limit error propagation at the same time. It could, therefore, be an efficient method for automatic sleep scoring. Additionally, since it requires only a small volume of data it could be suited to pervasive applications.

Keywords: Sleep, Sleep stage, Automatic sleep scoring, Electroencephalography, Decision tree, Artificial neural network

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Authors: Mengzhuo Luo, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper investigates the problem of exponential stability for a class of uncertain discrete-time stochastic neural network with time-varying delays. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, combining the stochastic stability theory, the free-weighting matrix method, a delay-dependent exponential stability criteria is obtained in term of LMIs. Compared with some previous results, the new conditions obtain in this paper are less conservative. Finally, two numerical examples are exploited to show the usefulness of the results derived.

Keywords: Delay-dependent stability, Neural networks, Time varying delay, Linear matrix inequality (LMI).

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Authors: Yingguo Li

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a discrete Gompertz model with time delay. Firstly, the stability of the equilibrium of the system is investigated by analyzing the characteristic equation. By choosing the time delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that Neimark- Sacker bifurcations occur when the delay passes a sequence of critical values. The direction and stability of the Neimark-Sacker are determined by using normal forms and centre manifold theory. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to verify the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Gompertz system, Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, stability, time delay.

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Authors: Jin A Ryu, Ga Ye Kim, Hee Sun Kim

Abstract:

As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: Evacuation safety, Evacuation simulation, FDS+Evac, Time.

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