Search results for: economic analysis.

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

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In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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Authors: Vilém Pařil, Dominika Tóthová

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This paper discusses the value theory in cultural heritage and the value theory in environmental economics. Two economic views of the value theory are compared, within the field of cultural heritage maintenance and within the field of the environment. The main aims are to find common features in these two differently structured theories under the layer of differently defined terms as well as really differing features of these two approaches; to clear the confusion which stems from different terminology as in fact these terms capture the same aspects of reality; and to show possible inspiration these two perspectives can offer one another. Another aim is to present these two value systems in one value framework. First, important moments of the value theory from the economic perspective are presented, leading to the marginal revolution of (not only) the Austrian School. Then the theory of value within cultural heritage and environmental economics are explored. Finally, individual approaches are compared and their potential mutual inspiration searched for.

Keywords: Cultural heritage, environmental economics, existence value, value theory.

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Authors: Bolanle Deborah Motilewa, E.K. Rowland Worlu, Gbenga Mayowa Agboola, Marvellous Aghogho Chidinma Gberevbie

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Businesses operating in the modern business world are faced with varying challenges; amongst which is the need to ensure that they are performing their societal function of being responsible in the society in which they operate. This responsibility to society is generally termed as corporate social responsibility. For many years, the practice of corporate social responsibility (CSR) was solely philanthropic, where organizations gave ‘charity’ or ‘alms’ to society, without any link to the organization’s mission and objectives. However, there has arisen a shift in the application of CSR from an act of philanthropy to a strategy with a business model engaged in by organizations to create a win-win situation of performing their societal obligation, whilst simultaneously performing their economic obligation. In more recent times, the term has moved from CSR to creating shared value, which is simply corporate policies and practices that enhance the competitiveness of a business organization while simultaneously advancing social and economic conditions in the communities in which the company operates. Creating shared value has in more recent light found more meaning in underdeveloped countries, faced with deep societal challenges that businesses can solve whilst creating economic value. This study thus reviews literature on CSR, conceptualizing the shift to creating shared value and finally viewing its potential significance in Africa’s development.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, shared value, Africapitalism.

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Authors: N. Damenia, E. Kharaishvili, N. Sagareishvili, M. Saghareishvili

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Women's Employment is one of the most important issues in the global economy. The article discusses the stated topic in Georgia, through historical content, Soviet experience, and modern perspectives. The paper discusses segmentation insa terms of employment and related problems. Based on statistical analysis, women's unemployment rate and its factors are analyzed. The level of employment of women in Transcaucasia (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) is discussed and is compared with Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). The study analyzes women’s level of development, according to the average age of marriage and migration level. The focus is on Georgia's Association Agreement with the EU in 2014, which includes economic, social, trade and political issues. One part of it is gender equality at workplaces. According to the research, the average monthly remuneration of women managers in the financial and insurance sector equaled to 1044.6 Georgian Lari, while in overall business sector average monthly remuneration equaled to 961.1 GEL. Average salaries are increasing; however, the employment rate remains problematic. For example, in 2017, 74.6% of men and 50.8% of women were employed from a total workforce. It is also interesting that the proportion of men and women at managerial positions is 29% (women) to 71% (men). Based on the results, the main recommendation for government and civil society is to consider women as a part of the country’s economic development. In this aspect, the experience of developed countries should be considered. It is important to create additional jobs in urban or rural areas and help migrant women return and use their working resources properly.

Keywords: Employment of women, segregation in terms of employment, women's employment level in Transcaucasia, migration level.

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Authors: Mustafa Bin Yusof, Mohammad Amirul Affiz Bin Afripin

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Safety of bus journey is a fundamental concern. Risk of injuries and fatalities is severe when bus superstructure fails during rollover accident. Adequate design and sufficient strength of bus superstructure can reduce the number of injuries and fatalities. This paper deals with structural analysis of bus superstructure undergoes rollover event. Several value of mass will be varied in multiple simulations. The purpose of this work is to analyze structural response of bus superstructure in terms of deformation, stress and strain under several loading and constraining conditions. A complete bus superstructure with forty four passenger-s capability was developed using finite element analysis software. Simulations have been conducted to observe the effect of total mass of bus on the strength of superstructure. These simulations are following United Nation Economic Commission of Europe regulation 66 which focuses on strength of large vehicle superstructure. Validation process had been done using simple box model experiment and results obtained are comparing with simulation results. Inputs data from validation process had been used in full scale simulation. Analyses suggested that, the failure of bus superstructure during rollover situation is basically dependent on the total mass of bus and on the strength of bus superstructure.

Keywords: Bus, rollover, superstructure strength, UNECE regulation 66.

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Authors: Azin Shakibabarough, Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi

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Structural vibration means repetitive motion that causes fatigue and reduction of the performance of a structure. An earthquake may release high amount of energy that can have adverse effect on all components of a structure. Therefore, decreasing of vibration or maintaining performance of structures such as bridges, dams, roads and buildings is important for life safety and reducing economic loss. When earthquake or any vibration happens, investigation on parts of a structure which sustain the seismic loads is mandatory to provide a safe condition for the occupants. One of the solutions for reducing the earthquake vibration in a structure is using of vibration control devices such as dampers and base isolators. The objective of this study is to investigate the optimal positions of friction dampers and base isolators for better seismic response of 2D frame. For this purpose, a two bay and six story frame with different distribution formats was modeled and some of their responses to earthquake such as inter-story drift, max joint displacement, max axial force and max bending moment were determined and compared using non-linear dynamic analysis.

Keywords: Fast nonlinear analysis, friction damper, base isolator, seismic vibration control, seismic response.

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Authors: S. S. Dol

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Improvement in vehicle efficiency can reduce global fossil fuels consumptions. For that sole reason, Shell Global Corporation introduces Shell Eco-marathon where student teams require to design, build and test energy-efficient vehicles. Hence, this paper will focus on design processes and the development of a fuel economic vehicle which satisfying the requirements of the competition. In this project, three components are designed and analyzed, which are the body, chassis and powertrain of the vehicle. Optimum design for each component is produced through simulation analysis and theoretical calculation in which improvement is made as the project progresses.

Keywords: Energy efficient vehicle, drag force, chassis, powertrain.

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Authors: M. Mahboubkhah, H. Fayazfar

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In this research, Forming Limit Diagrams for supertension sheet metals which are using in automobile industry have been obtained. The exerted strains to sheet metals have been measured with four different methods and the errors of each method have also been represented. These methods have been compared with together and the most efficient and economic way of extracting of the exerted strains to sheet metals has been introduced. In this paper total error and uncertainty of FLD extraction procedures have been derived. Determination of the measurement uncertainty in extracting of FLD has a great importance in design and analysis of the sheet metal forming process.

Keywords: Forming Limit Diagram, Major and Minor Strain, Measurement Uncertainty.

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand.

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Authors: YongXian, JIN

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Introducing survivability into embedded real-time system (ERTS) can improve the survivability power of the system. This paper mainly discusses about the survivability of ERTS. The first is the survivability origin of ERTS. The second is survivability analysis. According to the definition of survivability based on survivability specification and division of the entire survivability analysis process for ERTS, a survivability analysis profile is presented. The quantitative analysis model of this profile is emphasized and illuminated in detail, the quantifying analysis of system was showed helpful to evaluate system survivability more accurate. The third is platform design of survivability analysis. In terms of the profile, the analysis process is encapsulated and assembled into one platform, on which quantification, standardization and simplification of survivability analysis are all achieved. The fourth is survivability design. According to character of ERTS, strengthened design method is selected to realize system survivability design. Through the analysis of embedded mobile video-on-demand system, intrusion tolerant technology is introduced in whole survivability design.

Keywords: ERTS (embedded real-time system), survivability, quantitative analysis, survivability specification, intrusion tolerant

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Authors: Dávid Csercsik, Péter Kádár

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In the case of the proposed method, the problem is parallelized by considering multiple possible mode of operation profiles, which determine the range in which the generators operate in each period. For each of these profiles, the optimization is carried out independently, and the best resulting dispatch is chosen. For each such profile, the resulting problem is a quadratic programming (QP) problem with a potentially negative definite Q quadratic term, and constraints depending on the actual operation profile. In this paper we analyze the performance of available MATLAB optimization methods and solvers for the corresponding QP.

Keywords: Economic dispatch, optimization, quadratic programming, MATLAB.

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Authors: Sannikumar Patel, Brian Nolan, Markus Hofmann, Philip Owende, Kunjan Patel

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Sentiment analysis and opinion mining have become emerging topics of research in recent years but most of the work is focused on data in the English language. A comprehensive research and analysis are essential which considers multiple languages, machine translation techniques, and different classifiers. This paper presents, a comparative analysis of different approaches for multilingual sentiment analysis. These approaches are divided into two parts: one using classification of text without language translation and second using the translation of testing data to a target language, such as English, before classification. The presented research and results are useful for understanding whether machine translation should be used for multilingual sentiment analysis or building language specific sentiment classification systems is a better approach. The effects of language translation techniques, features, and accuracy of various classifiers for multilingual sentiment analysis is also discussed in this study.

Keywords: Cross-language analysis, machine learning, machine translation, sentiment analysis.

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Authors: Ebru Belkıs Kamanlıoğlu, Cem Güzeloğlu

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As the new industrial revolution advances in the nanotechnology have been followed with interest throughout the world and also in Turkey. Media has an important role in conveying these advances to public, rising public awareness and creating attitudes related to nanotechnology. As well as representing how a subject is treated, media frames determine how public think about this subject. In literature definite frames related to nanoscience and nanotechnology such as process, regulation, conflict and risks were mentioned in studies focusing different countries. So how nanotechnology news is treated by which frames and in which news categories in Turkey as a one of developing countries? In this study examining different variables about nanotechnology that affect public attitudes such as category, frame, story tone, source in Turkish media via framing analysis developed in agenda setting studies was aimed. In the analysis data between 2005 and 2009 obtained from the first five national newspapers with wide circulation in Turkey will be used. In this study the direction of the media about nanotechnology, in which frames nanotechnologic advances brought to agenda were reported as news, and sectoral, legal, economic and social scenes reflected by these frames to public related to nanotechnology in Turkey were planned.

Keywords: Agenda, frames, media, nanotechnology, Turkey.

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Authors: L. Bertola, T. Cox, P. Wheeler, S. Garvey, H. Morvan

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Electromagnetic Launch (EML) systems have been proposed for military applications to accelerate jet planes on aircraft carriers. This paper proposes the implementation of similar technology to aid civil aircraft take-off, which can provide significant economic, environmental and technical benefits. Assisted launch has the potential of reducing on ground noise and emissions near airports and improving overall aircraft efficiency through reducing engine thrust requirements. This paper presents a take-off performance analysis for an Airbus A320-200 taking off with and without the assistance of the electromagnetic catapult. Assisted take-off allows for a significant reduction in take-off field length, giving more capacity with existing airport footprints and reducing the necessary footprint of new airports, which will both reduce costs and increase the number of suitable sites. The electromagnetic catapult may allow the installation of smaller engines with lower rated thrust. The consequent fuel consumption and operational cost reduction is estimated. The potential of reducing the aircraft operational costs and the runway length required make EML system an attractive solution to the air traffic growth in busy airports.

Keywords: EML system, fuel consumption, take-off analysis, weight reduction.

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Authors: E. Farshidi

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This paper presents a new general technique for analysis of noise in static log-domain translinear circuits. It is demonstrated that employing this technique, leads to a general, simple and routine method of the noise analysis. The circuit has been simulated by HSPICE. The simulation results are seen to conform to the theoretical analysis and shows benefits of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: Noise analysis, log-domain, static, dynamic, translinear loop, companding.

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Authors: Josiane R. Pires, Marco A. S. González, Bruna L. Brenner, Luciana S. Roos

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The concern with sustainability brought the need for optimization of the buildings to reduce consumption of natural resources. Almost 1/3 of energy demanded by Brazilian housings is used to provide thermal solutions. AEC sector may contribute applying bioclimatic strategies on building design. The aim of this research is to investigate the viability of applying some alternative solutions in residential buildings. The research was developed with computational simulation on single family social housing, examining envelope type, absorptance, and insolation. The analysis of the thermal performance applied both Brazilian standard NBR 15575 and degree-hour method, in the scenery of Porto Alegre, a southern Brazilian city. We used BIM modeling through Revit/Autodesk and used Energy Plus to thermal simulation. The payback of the investment was calculated comparing energy savings and building costs, in a period of 50 years. The results shown that with the increment of envelope’s insulation there is thermal comfort improvement and energy economy, with a pay-back period of 24 to 36 years, in some cases.

Keywords: Civil construction, design, thermal performance, energy, economic analysis.

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Authors: Sinee Sankrusme

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The study was a case study analysis about Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company. The purpose was to analyze the company’s marketing objective, marketing strategy at company level, and marketing mix before liquor liberalization in 2000. Methods used in this study were qualitative and descriptive research approach which demonstrated the following results of the study demonstrated as follows: (1) Marketing objective was to increase market share of Heineken and Amtel, (2) the company’s marketing strategies were brand building strategy and distribution strategy. Additionally, the company also conducted marketing mix strategy as follows. Product strategy: The company added more beer brands namely Amstel and Tiger to provide additional choice to consumers, product and marketing research, and product development. Price strategy: the company had taken the following into consideration: cost, competitor, market, economic situation and tax. Promotion strategy: the company conducted sales promotion and advertising. Distribution strategy: the company extended channels its channels of distribution into food shops, pubs and various entertainment places. This strategy benefited interested persons and people who were engaged in the beer business.

Keywords: Marketing Strategy, Beer, Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company.

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Authors: Endrick Barnacin, Jean-Luc Henry, Jack Molinié, Jimmy Nagau, Hélène Delatte, Gérard Lebreton

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Palynology is a field of interest for many disciplines. It has multiple applications such as chronological dating, climatology, allergy treatment, and even honey characterization. Unfortunately, the analysis of a pollen slide is a complicated and time-consuming task that requires the intervention of experts in the field, which is becoming increasingly rare due to economic and social conditions. So, the automation of this task is a necessity. Pollen slides analysis is mainly a visual process as it is carried out with the naked eye. That is the reason why a primary method to automate palynology is the use of digital image processing. This method presents the lowest cost and has relatively good accuracy in pollen retrieval. In this work, we propose a system combining recognition and grouping of pollen. It consists of using a Logistic Model Tree to classify pollen already known by the proposed system while detecting any unknown species. Then, the unknown pollen species are divided using a cluster-based approach. Success rates for the recognition of known species have been achieved, and automated clustering seems to be a promising approach.

Keywords: Pollen recognition, logistic model tree, expectation-maximization, local binary pattern.

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Authors: Birgül Şakar

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This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.

Keywords: Economics, marketing crisis, financial reforms, political economy

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Air Transport links markets and individuals, making regions more competitive and promoting social and economic development. The assessment of social contribution is the key objective of this paper, focusing on the definition of the components of social dimension and welfare metrics in the national scale. According to a top-down approach, the key dimensions that affect the social welfare are presented. Conventional wisdom is to provide estimations on added value to social issues caused by the air transport development and present the methodology framework for measuring the contribution of transport development in social value chain. Greece is the case study of this paper, providing results from the contribution of air transport infrastructures in national welfare. The application key findings are essential for managers and decision makers to support actions and plans towards economic recovery of an economy presenting strong seasonal characteristics (because of tourism) and suffering from recession.

Keywords: Air transport, social dimension, social coherence, resilient business development, socioeconomic impact.

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Authors: Juan Sepúlveda

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Energy is a fundamental component in sustainability, the access and use of this resource is related with economic growth, social improvements, and environmental impacts. In this sense, energy efficiency has been studied as a factor that enhances the positive impacts of energy in communities; however, the implementation of efficiency requires strong policy and strategies that usually rely on individual measures focused in independent dimensions. In this paper, the problem of energy efficiency as a multi-objective problem is studied, using scientometric analysis to discover trends and patterns that allow to identify the main variables and study approximations related with a further development of models to integrate energy efficiency and MCA into policy making for small communities.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, MCA, Scientometrics, trends.

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Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu

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It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.

Keywords: Real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics.

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

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In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: Value, risk, creation, problems, organization.

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Authors: M. A. Fouad, M. A. Badr, Z. S. Abd El-Rehim, Taher Halawa, Mahmoud Bayoumi, M. M. Ibrahim

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Renewable energy-based micro-grids are presently attracting significant consideration. The smart grid system is presently considered a reliable solution for the expected deficiency in the power required from future power systems. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal components sizes of a micro-grid, investigating technical and economic performance with the environmental impacts. The micro grid load is divided into two small factories with electricity, both on-grid and off-grid modes are considered. The micro-grid includes photovoltaic cells, back-up diesel generator wind turbines, and battery bank. The estimated load pattern is 76 kW peak. The system is modeled and simulated by MATLAB/Simulink tool to identify the technical issues based on renewable power generation units. To evaluate system economy, two criteria are used: the net present cost and the cost of generated electricity. The most feasible system components for the selected application are obtained, based on required parameters, using HOMER simulation package. The results showed that a Wind/Photovoltaic (W/PV) on-grid system is more economical than a Wind/Photovoltaic/Diesel/Battery (W/PV/D/B) off-grid system as the cost of generated electricity (COE) is 0.266 $/kWh and 0.316 $/kWh, respectively. Considering the cost of carbon dioxide emissions, the off-grid will be competitive to the on-grid system as COE is found to be (0.256 $/kWh, 0.266 $/kWh), for on and off grid systems.

Keywords: Optimum energy systems, renewable energy sources, smart grid, micro-grid system, on- grid system, off-grid system, modeling and simulation, economical evaluation, net present value, cost of energy, environmental impacts.

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Authors: K. Qonono

Abstract:

Despite the significance and economic benefits of petrol stations in South Africa, these still pose a huge risk of fire and explosion threatening public safety. This research paper examines the extent to which land-use planning in Stellenbosch, South Africa, considers the fire risk posed by petrol stations and the implications for public safety as well as preparedness for large fires or explosions. To achieve this, the research identified the land-use types around petrol stations in Stellenbosch and determined the extent to which their locations comply with the local, national, and international land-use planning regulations. A mixed research method consisting of the collection and analysis of geospatial data and qualitative data was applied, where petrol stations within a six-kilometre radius of Stellenbosch’s town centre were utilised as study sites. The research examined the risk of fires/explosions at these petrol stations. The research investigated Stellenbosch Municipality’s institutional preparedness to respond in the event of a fire/explosion at these petrol stations. The research observed that siting of petrol stations does not comply with local, national, and international good practices, thus exposing the surrounding developments to fires and explosions. Land-use planning practice does not consider hazards created by petrol stations. Despite the potential for major fires at petrol stations, Stellenbosch Municipality’s level of preparedness to respond to petrol station fires appears low due to the prioritisation of more frequent events.

Keywords: Petrol stations, technological hazard, DRR, land-use planning, risk analysis.

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Authors: Ahmad Rouhani

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Iran has several potential for using renewable energies, so use them could significantly contribute to energy supply. The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential of the country and select the appropriate DG technologies with consideration the potential and primary energy resources in the regions. In this context, hybrid energy systems proportionate with the potential of different regions will be determined based on technical, economic, and environmental aspect. In the following the proposed structure will be optimized in terms of size and cost. DG technologies used in this project include photovoltaic system, wind turbine, diesel generator and battery bank. The HOMER software is applied for choosing the appropriate structure and the optimization of system sizing. The results have been analyzed in terms of technical and economic. The performance and the cost of each project demonstrate the appropriate structure of hybrid energy system in that region.

Keywords: Feasibility, Hybrid Energy System, Iran, Renewable Energy.

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Authors: L. Jiang

Abstract:

Since the late 1980s, the new phenomena of 'employment subcentres' or 'polycentricity' has appeared in the metropolises of North American and Western Europe and it has been an interesting topic for academics and researchers. This paper specifically uses one case study-Guangzhou to explore the development and the mechanism of employment subcentres and polycentricity in Chinese metropolises by spatial analysis method on the basis of the first economic census data. In conclusion, the paper regards that the employment subcentres and polycentricity has existed in Chinese metropolises. And that, the mechanism of them is mainly from the secondary industry instead of the tertiary industry in North American and Western Europe

Keywords: Employment Subcentre, Polycentricity, Guangzhou.

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Authors: T. Hussain, A. Iqbal, M. W. Siddiqi

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The objective of this study is to examine the validity of Wagner-s law and relationship between economic growth, population and export for Pakistan. The ARDL Bounds cointegration and ECM are utilized for long and short run equilibrium for the period of 1972-2007. Population has considerable role in an economy and exports are the main source to raise the GDP. With the increase in GDP, the government expenditures may or may not increase. The empirical results indicate that the Wagner-s Law does hold, as economic growth is significantly and positively correlated with government expenditures. However, population and exports have also significant and positive impact on government expenditures both in short and long run. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 70.82 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL Cointegration, Growth, Pakistan, Wagner's law.

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Authors: Vahid Aryanpur , Ehsan Shafiei

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This paper presents an environmental and technoeconomic evaluation of light duty vehicles in Iran. A comprehensive well-to-wheel (WTW) analysis is applied to compare different automotive fuel chains, conventional internal combustion engines and innovative vehicle powertrains. The study examines the competitiveness of 15 various pathways in terms of energy efficiencies, GHG emissions, and levelized cost of different energy carriers. The results indicate that electric vehicles including battery electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell vehicles (FCV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) increase the WTW energy efficiency by 54%, 51% and 46%, respectively, compared to common internal combustion engines powered by gasoline. On the other hand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kilometer of FCV and BEV would be 48% lower than that of gasoline engines. It is concluded that BEV has the lowest total cost of energy consumption and external cost of emission, followed by internal combustion engines (ICE) fueled by CNG. Conventional internal combustion engines fueled by gasoline, on the other hand, would have the highest costs.

Keywords: Well-to-Wheel analysis, Energy Efficiency, GHG emissions, Levelized cost of energy, Alternative fuel vehicles.

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Authors: Saheed A. Gbadegeshin

Abstract:

Commercialization method is a means to make inventions available at the market for final consumption. It is described as an important tool for keeping business enterprises sustainable and improving national economic growth. Thus, there are several scholarly publications on it, either presenting or testing different methods for commercialization. However, young entrepreneurs, technologists and scientists would like to know the best method to commercialize their innovations. Then, this question arises: What is the best commercialization method? To answer the question, a systematic literature review was conducted, and practitioners were interviewed. The literary results revealed that there are many methods but new methods are needed to improve commercialization especially during these times of economic crisis and political uncertainty. Similarly, the empirical results showed there are several methods, but the best method is the one that reduces costs, reduces the risks associated with uncertainty, and improves customer participation and acceptability. Therefore, it was concluded that new commercialization method is essential for today's high technologies and a method was presented.

Keywords: Commercialization method, high technology, lean start-up methodology, technology, knowledge.

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