Search results for: Predictive Data Mining

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

Several combinations of the preprocessing algorithms, feature selection techniques and classifiers can be applied to the data classification tasks. This study introduces a new accurate classifier, the proposed classifier consist from four components: Signal-to- Noise as a feature selection technique, support vector machine, Bayesian neural network and AdaBoost as an ensemble algorithm. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed classifier, seven well known classifiers are applied to four datasets. The experiments show that using the suggested classifier enhances the classification rates for all datasets.

Keywords: AdaBoost, Bayesian neural network, Signal-to-Noise, support vector machine, MCMC.

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Authors: Sarah Beaver, Renee Bryce

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Audiograms detect hearing impairment, but missing values pose problems. This work explores imputations in an attempt to improve accuracy. This work implements Linear Regression, Lasso, Linear Support Vector Regression, Bayesian Ridge, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest machine learning techniques to impute audiogram frequencies ranging from 125 Hz to 8000 Hz. The data contain patients who had or were candidates for cochlear implants. Accuracy is compared across two different Nested Cross-Validation k values. Over 4000 audiograms were used from 800 unique patients. Additionally, training on data combines and compares left and right ear audiograms versus single ear side audiograms. The accuracy achieved using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from 4.74 to 6.37. The R2 values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from .91 to .96. The accuracy achieved using RMSE values for the best models for KNN ranges from 5.00 to 7.72. The R2 values for the best models for KNN ranges from .89 to .95. The best imputation models received R2 between .89 to .96 and RMSE values less than 8dB. We also show that the accuracy of classification predictive models performed better with our imputation models versus constant imputations by a two percent increase.

Keywords: Machine Learning, audiograms, data imputations, single imputations.

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Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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Authors: Kyoung-jae Kim, Hyunchul Ahn, Sangwon Jeong

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This study proposes a novel recommender system to provide the advertisements of context-aware services. Our proposed model is designed to apply a modified collaborative filtering (CF) algorithm with regard to the several dimensions for the personalization of mobile devices – location, time and the user-s needs type. In particular, we employ a classification rule to understand user-s needs type using a decision tree algorithm. In addition, we collect primary data from the mobile phone users and apply them to the proposed model to validate its effectiveness. Experimental results show that the proposed system makes more accurate and satisfactory advertisements than comparative systems.

Keywords: Location-based advertisement, Recommender system, Collaborative filtering, User needs type, Mobile user.

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Authors: A. I. A. Rahman, Sh-Hussain Salleh, K. Ahmad, K. Anuar

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Analysis of vocal fold vibration is essential for understanding the mechanism of voice production and for improving clinical assessment of voice disorders. This paper presents a Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) based approach to analyze and objectively classify vocal fold vibration patterns. The proposed technique was designed and implemented on a Glottal Area Waveform (GAW) extracted from high-speed laryngeal images by delineating the glottal edges for each image frame. Feature extraction from the GAW was performed using Linear Predictive Coding (LPC). Several types of voice reference templates from simulations of clear, breathy, fry, pressed and hyperfunctional voice productions were used. The patterns of the reference templates were first verified using the analytical signal generated through Hilbert transformation of the GAW. Samples from normal speakers’ voice recordings were then used to evaluate and test the effectiveness of this approach. The classification of the voice patterns using the technique of LPC and DTW gave the accuracy of 81%.

Keywords: Dynamic Time Warping, Glottal Area Waveform, Linear Predictive Coding, High-Speed Laryngeal Images, Hilbert Transform.

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Authors: M.R. Mustafa, M.H. Isa, R.B. Rezaur

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Prediction of highly non linear behavior of suspended sediment flow in rivers has prime importance in the field of water resources engineering. In this study the predictive performance of two Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) namely, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) Network and the Multi Layer Feed Forward (MLFF) Network have been compared. Time series data of daily suspended sediment discharge and water discharge at Pari River was used for training and testing the networks. A number of statistical parameters i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used for performance evaluation of the models. Both the models produced satisfactory results and showed a good agreement between the predicted and observed data. The RBF network model provided slightly better results than the MLFF network model in predicting suspended sediment discharge.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, suspendedsediment,

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Authors: Amdouni Hamida, Gammoudi Mohamed Mohsen

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In order to help the expert to validate association rules extracted from data, some quality measures are proposed in the literature. We distinguish two categories: objective and subjective measures. The first one depends on a fixed threshold and on data quality from which the rules are extracted. The second one consists on providing to the expert some tools in the objective to explore and visualize rules during the evaluation step. However, the number of extracted rules to validate remains high. Thus, the manually mining rules task is very hard. To solve this problem, we propose, in this paper, a semi-automatic method to assist the expert during the association rule's validation. Our method uses rule-based classification as follow: (i) We transform association rules into classification rules (classifiers), (ii) We use the generated classifiers for data classification. (iii) We visualize association rules with their quality classification to give an idea to the expert and to assist him during validation process.

Keywords: Association rules, Rule-based classification, Classification quality, Validation.

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Authors: Chen Chou, Feng-Tyan Lin

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Big Data has been attracted a lot of attentions in many fields for analyzing research issues based on a large number of maternal data. Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) is one of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications in Taiwan, used to record starting point, end point, distance and travel time of vehicle on the national freeway. This study, taking advantage of ETC big data, combined with urban planning theory, attempts to explore various phenomena of inter-city transportation activities. ETC, one of government's open data, is numerous, complete and quick-update. One may recall that living area has been delimited with location, population, area and subjective consciousness. However, these factors cannot appropriately reflect what people’s movement path is in daily life. In this study, the concept of "Living Area" is replaced by "Influence Range" to show dynamic and variation with time and purposes of activities. This study uses data mining with Python and Excel, and visualizes the number of trips with GIS to explore influence range of Tainan city and the purpose of trips, and discuss living area delimited in current. It dialogues between the concepts of "Central Place Theory" and "Living Area", presents the new point of view, integrates the application of big data, urban planning and transportation. The finding will be valuable for resource allocation and land apportionment of spatial planning.

Keywords: Big Data, ITS, influence range, living area, central place theory, visualization.

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Authors: Mouhammad Alkasassbeh, Mohammad Almseidin

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Network security engineers work to keep services available all the time by handling intruder attacks. Intrusion Detection System (IDS) is one of the obtainable mechanisms that is used to sense and classify any abnormal actions. Therefore, the IDS must be always up to date with the latest intruder attacks signatures to preserve confidentiality, integrity, and availability of the services. The speed of the IDS is a very important issue as well learning the new attacks. This research work illustrates how the Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (or Knowledge Discovery in Databases) KDD dataset is very handy for testing and evaluating different Machine Learning Techniques. It mainly focuses on the KDD preprocess part in order to prepare a decent and fair experimental data set. The J48, MLP, and Bayes Network classifiers have been chosen for this study. It has been proven that the J48 classifier has achieved the highest accuracy rate for detecting and classifying all KDD dataset attacks, which are of type DOS, R2L, U2R, and PROBE.

Keywords: IDS, DDoS, MLP, KDD.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Yung-Chien Sun, O. Grant Clark

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In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables" whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex" situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty. The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the complete database and create predictive models for the same 12 target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10% of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, intuition, knowledge acquisition, limited certainty.

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: Multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, Importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, Marginal likelihood evidence.

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Authors: Sarabjeet Kaur Kochhar

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With a surge of stream processing applications novel techniques are required for generation and analysis of association rules in streams. The traditional rule mining solutions cannot handle streams because they generally require multiple passes over the data and do not guarantee the results in a predictable, small time. Though researchers have been proposing algorithms for generation of rules from streams, there has not been much focus on their analysis. We propose Association rule profiling, a user centric process for analyzing association rules and attaching suitable profiles to them depending on their changing frequency behavior over a previous snapshot of time in a data stream. Association rule profiles provide insights into the changing nature of associations and can be used to characterize the associations. We discuss importance of characteristics such as predictability of linkages present in the data and propose metric to quantify it. We also show how association rule profiles can aid in generation of user specific, more understandable and actionable rules. The framework is implemented as SUPAR: System for Usercentric Profiling of Association Rules in streaming data. The proposed system offers following capabilities: i) Continuous monitoring of frequency of streaming item-sets and detection of significant changes therein for association rule profiling. ii) Computation of metrics for quantifying predictability of associations present in the data. iii) User-centric control of the characterization process: user can control the framework through a) constraint specification and b) non-interesting rule elimination.

Keywords: Data Streams, User subjectivity, Change detection, Association rule profiles, Predictability.

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Authors: S. Wechmongkhonkon, N.Poomtong, S. Areerachakul

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Water quality is a subject of ongoing concern. Deterioration of water quality has initiated serious management efforts in many countries. This study endeavors to automatically classify water quality. The water quality classes are evaluated using 6 factor indices. These factors are pH value (pH), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Nitrate Nitrogen (NO3N), Ammonia Nitrogen (NH3N) and Total Coliform (TColiform). The methodology involves applying data mining techniques using multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models. The data consisted of 11 sites of canals in Dusit district in Bangkok, Thailand. The data is obtained from the Department of Drainage and Sewerage Bangkok Metropolitan Administration during 2007-2011. The results of multilayer perceptron neural network exhibit a high accuracy multilayer perception rate at 96.52% in classifying the water quality of Dusit district canal in Bangkok Subsequently, this encouraging result could be applied with plan and management source of water quality.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, surface water quality

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Authors: Hrudaya Ku. Tripathy, B. K. Tripathy, Pradip K. Das

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Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) has evolved into an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering (or extracting) interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real-world databases. Rough Set Theory (RST) is a mathematical formalism for representing uncertainty that can be considered an extension of the classical set theory. It has been used in many different research areas, including those related to inductive machine learning and reduction of knowledge in knowledge-based systems. One important concept related to RST is that of a rough relation. In this paper we presented the current status of research on applying rough set theory to KDD, which will be helpful for handle the characteristics of real-world databases. The main aim is to show how rough set and rough set analysis can be effectively used to extract knowledge from large databases.

Keywords: Data mining, Data tables, Knowledge discovery in database (KDD), Rough sets.

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Authors: K. K. Yong, R. Mahmud, C. S. Woo

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Data mining and knowledge engineering have become a tough task due to the availability of large amount of data in the web nowadays. Validity and reliability of data also become a main debate in knowledge acquisition. Besides, acquiring knowledge from different languages has become another concern. There are many language translators and corpora developed but the function of these translators and corpora are usually limited to certain languages and domains. Furthermore, search results from engines with traditional 'keyword' approach are no longer satisfying. More intelligent knowledge engineering agents are needed. To address to these problems, a system known as Multilingual Word Semantic Network is proposed. This system adapted semantic network to organize words according to concepts and relations. The system also uses open source as the development philosophy to enable the native language speakers and experts to contribute their knowledge to the system. The contributed words are then defined and linked using lexical and semantic relations. Thus, related words and derivatives can be identified and linked. From the outcome of the system implementation, it contributes to the development of semantic web and knowledge engineering.

Keywords: Multilingual, semantic network, intelligent knowledge engineering.

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Authors: Mu-Yen Chen, Min-Hsuan Fan, Chia-Chen Chen, Siang-Yu Jhong

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In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate, affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore, scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect, and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation. The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Taguchi Method, Real Estate Valuation Model.

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Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

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It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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Authors: Bruno Trstenjak, Dzenana Donko

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Data mining and classification of objects is the process of data analysis, using various machine learning techniques, which is used today in various fields of research. This paper presents a concept of hybrid classification model improved with the expert knowledge. The hybrid model in its algorithm has integrated several machine learning techniques (Information Gain, K-means, and Case-Based Reasoning) and the expert’s knowledge into one. The knowledge of experts is used to determine the importance of features. The paper presents the model algorithm and the results of the case study in which the emphasis was put on achieving the maximum classification accuracy without reducing the number of features.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, classification, expert's knowledge, hybrid model.

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Authors: Michael Netzer, Michael Seger, Mahesh Visvanathan, Bernhard Pfeifer, Gerald H. Lushington, Christian Baumgartner

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Lung cancer accounts for the most cancer related deaths for men as well as for women. The identification of cancer associated genes and the related pathways are essential to provide an important possibility in the prevention of many types of cancer. In this work two filter approaches, namely the information gain and the biomarker identifier (BMI) are used for the identification of different types of small-cell and non-small-cell lung cancer. A new method to determine the BMI thresholds is proposed to prioritize genes (i.e., primary, secondary and tertiary) using a k-means clustering approach. Sets of key genes were identified that can be found in several pathways. It turned out that the modified BMI is well suited for microarray data and therefore BMI is proposed as a powerful tool for the search for new and so far undiscovered genes related to cancer.

Keywords: lung cancer, micro arrays, data mining, feature selection.

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Authors: Dhany Saputra, Dayang R. A. Rambli, Oi Mean Foong

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In this paper, we propose an improvement of pattern growth-based PrefixSpan algorithm, called I-PrefixSpan. The general idea of I-PrefixSpan is to use sufficient data structure for Seq-Tree framework and separator database to reduce the execution time and memory usage. Thus, with I-PrefixSpan there is no in-memory database stored after index set is constructed. The experimental result shows that using Java 2, this method improves the speed of PrefixSpan up to almost two orders of magnitude as well as the memory usage to more than one order of magnitude.

Keywords: ArrayList, ArrayIntList, minimum support, sequence database, sequential patterns.

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Authors: Hanieh Jalali, Ahmad Baraani

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Nowaday-s, many organizations use systems that support business process as a whole or partially. However, in some application domains, like software development and health care processes, a normative Process Aware System (PAS) is not suitable, because a flexible support is needed to respond rapidly to new process models. On the other hand, a flexible Process Aware System may be vulnerable to undesirable and fraudulent executions, which imposes a tradeoff between flexibility and security. In order to make this tradeoff available, a genetic-based anomaly detection model for logs of Process Aware Systems is presented in this paper. The detection of an anomalous trace is based on discovering an appropriate process model by using genetic process mining and detecting traces that do not fit the appropriate model as anomalous trace; therefore, when used in PAS, this model is an automated solution that can support coexistence of flexibility and security.

Keywords: Anomaly Detection, Genetic Algorithm, ProcessAware Systems, Process Mining.

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Authors: Nittaya Kerdprasop, Kittisak Kerdprasop

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The state of the art in instructional design for computer-assisted learning has been strongly influenced by advances in information technology, Internet and Web-based systems. The emphasis of educational systems has shifted from training to learning. The course delivered has also been changed from large inflexible content to sequential small chunks of learning objects. The concepts of learning objects together with the advanced technologies of Web and communications support the reusability, interoperability, and accessibility design criteria currently exploited by most learning systems. These concepts enable just-in-time learning. We propose to extend theses design criteria further to include the learnability concept that will help adapting content to the needs of learners. The learnability concept offers a better personalization leading to the creation and delivery of course content more appropriate to performance and interest of each learner. In this paper we present a new framework of learning environments containing knowledge discovery as a tool to automatically learn patterns of learning behavior from learners' profiles and history.

Keywords: Knowledge mining, Web-based learning, Learning environments.

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Authors: Gints Jekabsons

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The approach of subset selection in polynomial regression model building assumes that the chosen fixed full set of predefined basis functions contains a subset that is sufficient to describe the target relation sufficiently well. However, in most cases the necessary set of basis functions is not known and needs to be guessed – a potentially non-trivial (and long) trial and error process. In our research we consider a potentially more efficient approach – Adaptive Basis Function Construction (ABFC). It lets the model building method itself construct the basis functions necessary for creating a model of arbitrary complexity with adequate predictive performance. However, there are two issues that to some extent plague the methods of both the subset selection and the ABFC, especially when working with relatively small data samples: the selection bias and the selection instability. We try to correct these issues by model post-evaluation using Cross-Validation and model ensembling. To evaluate the proposed method, we empirically compare it to ABFC methods without ensembling, to a widely used method of subset selection, as well as to some other well-known regression modeling methods, using publicly available data sets.

Keywords: Basis function construction, heuristic search, modelensembles, polynomial regression.

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Authors: Shahad Nagoor, Lucy Hederman, Kevin Koidl, Annalina Caputo

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Doctors’ notes reflect their impressions, attitudes, clinical sense, and opinions about patients’ conditions and progress, and other information that is essential for doctors’ daily clinical decisions. Despite their value, clinical notes are insufficiently researched within the language processing community. Automatically extracting information from unstructured text data is known to be a difficult task as opposed to dealing with structured information such as physiological vital signs, images and laboratory results. The aim of this research is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and machine learning techniques applied to clinician notes can assist in doctors’ decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The hypothesis is that clinical outcomes like survival or mortality can be useful to influence the judgement of clinical sentiment in ICU clinical notes. This paper presents two contributions: first, we introduce COVID_ICU_BERT, a fine-tuned version of a clinical transformer model that can reliably predict clinical sentiment for notes of COVID patients in ICU. We train the model on clinical notes for COVID-19 patients, ones not previously seen by Bio_ClinicalBERT or Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT. The model which was based on Bio_ClinicalBERT achieves higher predictive accuracy than the one based on Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT (Acc 93.33%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.96). Second, we perform data augmentation using clinical contextual word embedding that is based on a pre-trained clinical model to balance the samples in each class in the data (survived vs. deceased patients). Data augmentation improves the accuracy of prediction slightly (Acc 96.67%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.92).

Keywords: BERT fine-tuning, clinical sentiment, COVID-19, data augmentation.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

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Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Ntloana Hlabishi Peter

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The availability of public transportation modes and qualitative infrastructure is a burning issue that affects urban sustainability. Public transportation is indispensable in providing adequate transportation means to people at an affordable price, and it promotes public transport reliance. Burgersfort town has a critical condition on the urban public transportation infrastructure which affects the bus and taxi public transport modes and the existing infrastructure. The municipality is regarded as one of the mining towns in Limpopo Province considering the availability of mining activities and proposal on establishment of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The study aim is to assess the efficacy of current public transportation infrastructure and to propose relevant recommendations that will unlock the possibility of future supportable public transportation systems. The Key Informant Interview (KII) was used to acquire data on the views from commuters and stakeholders involved. There KII incorporated three relevant questions in relation to services rendered in public transportation. Relevant literature relating to public transportation modes and infrastructure revealed the imperatives of public transportation infrastructure, and relevant legislation was reviewed concerning public transport infrastructure. The finding revealed poor conditions on the public transportation ranks and also inadequate parking space for public transportation modes. The study reveals that 100% of people interviewed were not satisfied with the condition of public transportation infrastructure and 100% are not satisfied with the services offered by public transportation sectors. The findings revealed that the municipality is the main player who can upgrade the existing conditions of public transportation. The study recommended that an intermodal transportation facility must be established to resolve the emerging challenges.

Keywords: Public transportation, modes, infrastructure, urban sustainability.

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Authors: Mokrane Selma

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The shift towards decision making (DM) based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques will change the way in which consumer markets and our societies function. Through AI, predictive analytics is being used by businesses to identify these patterns and major trends with the objective to improve the DM and influence future business outcomes. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. To validate the proposed model, we uses the bank marketing data of 41188 phone calls. The ANN attains 98.93% of accuracy which outperforms other conventional classifiers and confirms that it is credible and valuable approach for telemarketing campaign managers.

Keywords: Bank telemarketing, prediction, decision making, artificial intelligence, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Khalil Shihab, Nida Al-Chalabi

Abstract:

This article describes Uruk, the virtual museum of Iraq that we developed for visual exploration and retrieval of image collections. The system largely exploits the loosely-structured hierarchy of XML documents that provides a useful representation method to store semi-structured or unstructured data, which does not easily fit into existing database. The system offers users the capability to mine and manage the XML-based image collections through a web-based Graphical User Interface (GUI). Typically, at an interactive session with the system, the user can browse a visual structural summary of the XML database in order to select interesting elements. Using this intermediate result, queries combining structure and textual references can be composed and presented to the system. After query evaluation, the full set of answers is presented in a visual and structured way.

Keywords: Data-centric XML, graphical user interfaces, information retrieval, case-based reasoning, fuzzy sets

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