Search results for: Credit Risk

Authors: Benjamin Osei Tutu, Rita Asante, Emefa Atsu

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Background: An outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred in December 2019 after students of a Senior High School in Accra were served with kenkey and fish during their dinner. An investigation was conducted to characterize the affected people, the source of contamination, the etiologic food and agent. Methods: An epidemiological study was conducted with cases selected from the student population who were ill. Controls were selected from among students who also ate from the school canteen during dinner but were not ill. Food history of each case and control was taken to assess their exposure status. Epi Info 7 was used to analyze the data obtained from the outbreak. Attack rates and odds ratios were calculated to determine the risk of foodborne infection for each of the foods consumed by the population. The source of contamination of the foods was ascertained by conducting an environmental risk assessment at the school. Results: Data were obtained from 126 students, out of which 57 (45.2%) were cases and 69 (54.8%) were controls. The cases presented with symptoms such as diarrhea (85.96%), abdominal cramps (66.67%), vomiting (50.88%), headache (21.05%), fever (17.86%) and nausea (3.51%). The peak incubation period was 18 hours with a minimum and maximum incubation periods of 6 and 50 hours respectively. From the incubation period, duration of illness and the symptoms, non-typhoidal salmonellosis was suspected. Multivariate analysis indicated that the illness was associated with the consumption of the fried fish served, however this was statistically insignificant (AOR 3.1.00, P = 0.159). No stool, blood or food samples were available for organism isolation and confirmation of suspected etiologic agent. The environmental risk assessment indicated poor hand washing practices on the part of both the food handlers and students. Conclusion: The outbreak could probably be due to the consumption of the fried fish that might have been contaminated with Salmonella sp. as a result of poor hand washing practices in the school.

Keywords: Case control study, food poisoning, handwashing, Salmonella, school.

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Authors: Sihao Lin, Bo Shen, Xuexiang Dai, Xuyan Xu, Zhenyi Wu, Xianzhe Zeng

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Infrared Thermography (IRT) has been little documented in the objective measurement of ergonomic exposure. We aimed to examine the association between different ergonomic exposures and low back skin temperature measured by IRT. A total of 114 subjects among sedentary students, sports students and cleaning workers were selected as different ergonomic exposure levels. Low back skin temperature was measured by IRT before and post ergonomic exposure. Ergonomic exposure was assessed by Quick Exposure Check (QEC) and quantitative scores were calculated on the low back. Multiple regressions were constructed to examine the possible associations between ergonomic risk exposures and the skin temperature over the low back. Compared to the two student groups, clean workers had significantly higher ergonomic exposure scores on the low back. The low back temperature variations were different among the three groups. The temperature decreased significantly among students with ergonomic exposure (P < 0.01), while it increased among cleaning workers. With adjustment of confounding, the post-exposure temperature and the temperature changes after exposure showed a significantly negative association with ergonomic exposure scores. For maximum temperature, one increasing ergonomic score decreased -0.23 °C (95% CI -0.37, -0.10) of temperature after ergonomic exposure over the low back. There was a significant association between ergonomic exposures and infrared thermal temperature over low back. IRT could be used as an objective assessment of ergonomic exposure on the low back.

Keywords: Ergonomic exposure, infrared thermography, musculoskeletal disorders, skin temperature, low back.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: Crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city.

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Authors: E. Nemes-Nagy, E. Fogarasi, M. Croitoru, A. Nyárádi, K. Komlódi, S. Pál, A. Kovács, O. Kopácsy, R. Tripon, Z. Fazakas, C. Uzun, Z. Simon-Szabó, V. Balogh-Sămărghițan, E. Ernő Nagy, M. Szabó, M. Tilinca

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Intense oxidative stress, increased glycated hemoglobin and mineral imbalance represent risk factors for complications in diabetic patients. Cardiovascular complications are most common in these patients, including nephropathy. This study was conducted in 2015 at the Procardia Laboratory in Tîrgu Mureș, Romania on 40 type 2 diabetic adults. Routine biochemical tests were performed on the Konleab 20XTi analyzer (serum glucose, total cholesterol, LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, creatinine, urea). We also measured serum uric acid, magnesium and calcium concentration by photometric procedures, potassium, sodium and chloride by ion selective electrode, and chromium by atomic absorption spectrometry in a group of patients. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) dosage was made by reflectometry. Urine analysis was performed using the HandUReader equipment. The level of oxidative stress was measured by serum malondialdehyde dosage using the thiobarbituric acid reactive substances method. MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) formula was applied for calculation of creatinine-derived glomerular filtration rate. GraphPad InStat software was used for statistical analysis of the data. The diabetic subject included in the study presented high MDA concentrations, showing intense oxidative stress. Calcium was deficient in 5% of the patients, chromium deficiency was present in 28%. The atherogenic cholesterol fraction was elevated in 13% of the patients. Positive correlation was found between creatinine and MDRD-creatinine values (p<0.0001), 68% of the patients presented increased creatinine values. The majority of the diabetic patients had good control of their diabetes, having optimal HbA1c values, 35% of them presented fasting serum glucose over 120 mg/dl and 18% had glucosuria. Intense oxidative stress and mineral deficiencies can increase the risk of cardiovascular complications in diabetic patients in spite of their good metabolic balance. More than two third of the patients present biochemical signs of nephropathy, cystatin C dosage and microalbuminuria could reveal better the kidney disorder, but glomerular filtration rate calculation formulas are also useful for evaluation of renal function.

Keywords: Cardiovascular risk, malondialdehyde, metabolic balance, minerals, type 2 diabetes.

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Authors: Grygorii Kostromin, Vladyslav Povoroznyuk

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Chronic venous diseases (CVD) are one of the common, though controversial problems in medicine. It is generally accepted that this pathology predominantly occurs in women. The issue of excessive weight as a risk factor for CVD is still considered debatable. To the author's best knowledge, today in Ukraine, there are barely any studies that describe the relationship between CVD and obesity. Our study aims to determine the association between age, body composition, obesity and CVD in postmenopausal women. The study was conducted in D. F. Chebotarev Institute of Gerontology, National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine. We have examined 96 postmenopausal women aged 46-85 years (mean age – 66.19 ± 0.96 years), who were divided into two groups depending on the presence of CVD. The women were examined by vascular surgeons. For the diagnosis of CVD, we used clinical, anatomic and pathophysiologic classifications. We also performed clinical, ultrasound and densitometry examinations. We found that the CVD frequency in postmenopausal women increased with age (from 72% in those aged 45-59 years to 84% in those aged 75-89 years). A significant correlation between the total fat mass and age was determined in postmenopausal women with CVD. We also observed a significant correlation between the lower extremities’ fat mass and age in both examined groups. A significant correlation between body mass index and age was determined only in postmenopausal women without CVD.

Keywords: Chronic venous disease, risk factors, age, obesity, postmenopausal women.

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Authors: Hind Bouami, Patrick Millot

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Medication dispensing system is a life-critical system whose failure may result in preventable adverse events leading to longer patient stays in hospitals or patient death. Automation has led to great improvements in life-critical systems as it increased safety, efficiency, and comfort. However, critical risks related to medical organization complexity and automated solutions integration can threaten drug dispensing security and performance. Knowledge about the system’s complexity aspects and human machine parameters to control for automated equipment’s security and performance will help operators to secure their automation process and to optimize their system’s reliability. In this context, this study aims to document the operator’s situation awareness about automation risks and parameters involved in automation security and performance. Our risk management approach has been deployed in the North Luxembourg hospital center’s pharmacy, which is equipped with automated drug dispensing systems since 2009. With more than 4 million euros of gains generated, North Luxembourg hospital center’s success story was enabled by the management commitment, pharmacy’s involvement in the implementation and improvement of the automation project, and the close collaboration between the pharmacy and Sinteco’s firm to implement the necessary innovation and organizational actions for automated solutions integration security and performance. An analysis of the actions implemented by the hospital and the parameters involved in automated equipment’s integration security and performance has been made. The parameters to control for automated equipment’s integration security and performance are human aspects (6.25%), technical aspects (50%), and human-machine interaction (43.75%). The implementation of an anthropocentric analysis system before automation would have prevented and optimized the control of risks related to automation.

Keywords: Automated drug delivery systems, hospitals, human-centered automated system, risk management.

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, N. Damenia

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Current state of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Georgia is analyzed and evaluated in the paper, the existing legislative background for regulating investments and stimulating policies to attract investments are shown. It is noted that in developing countries encouragement of investment activity, support and implementation are of the most important tasks, implying a consistent investment policy, investor-friendly tax regime and the legal system, reducing administrative barriers and restrictions, fare competitive conditions and business development infrastructure. The work deals with the determining factor of FDIs and the main directions of stimulation, as well as prospective industries where new investments are needed. Contributing and hindering factors and stimulating measures are analyzed. As a result of the research, the direct and indirect factors attracting FDI have been identified. Facilitating factors to FDI inflow are as follows: simplicity of starting business, geopolitical location, low taxes, access to credit, ease of ownership registration, natural resources, low burden of regulations, low level of corruption and low crime rates. Hindering factors to FDI inflow are as follows: small market, lack of policy for attracting investments, low qualification of the workforce (despite the large number of unemployed people it is difficult to find workers with necessary special skills and qualifications), high interest rates, instability of national currency exchange rate, presence of conflict zones within the country and so forth.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, investment attracting policies, investor, reinvestment.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index.

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Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Laura Scesi, Elena Cerino Adbin, Daniele Cremonesi

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The interaction of tunneling or mining with groundwater has become a very relevant problem not only due to the need to guarantee the safety of workers and to assure the efficiency of the tunnel drainage systems, but also to safeguard water resources from impoverishment and pollution risk. Therefore it is very important to forecast the drainage processes (i.e., the evaluation of drained discharge and drawdown caused by the excavation). The aim of this study was to know better the system and to quantify the flow drained from the Fontane mines, located in Val Germanasca (Turin, Italy). This allowed to understand the hydrogeological local changes in time. The work has therefore been structured as follows: the reconstruction of the conceptual model with the geological, hydrogeological and geological-structural study; the calculation of the tunnel inflows (through the use of structural methods) and the comparison with the measured flow rates; the water balance at the basin scale. In this way it was possible to understand what are the relationships between rainfall, groundwater level variations and the effect of the presence of tunnels as a means of draining water. Subsequently, it the effects produced by the excavation of the mining tunnels was quantified, through numerical modeling. In particular, the modeling made it possible to observe the drawdown variation as a function of number, excavation depth and different mines linings.

Keywords: Groundwater, Italy, numerical model, tunneling.

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Authors: Mutshinye Manguvhewa, Maria Florence, Mansoo Yu

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Substance use among pregnant women is a perennial problem in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. There are many influential elements related with substance use among women of childbearing-age. Factors associated with substance use during pregnancy were explored using qualitative research approach and bio-ecological theoretical framework was utilised to guide the study. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Participants accessed from the Department of Social Development who met the inclusion criteria of the study were interviewed using semi structured interviews. Participants were referred for psychological intervention during the interview if deemed necessary. Braun and Clarke’s six phases of thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The study adhered to ethical measures for the participants’ protection. Participants had been knowledgeable about the study earlier than the initiation of the interviews and the important points of their voluntary participation had been explained. The key findings from this study illustrate that social factors, individual area and romantic relationship are the major contributing factors to substance use among pregnant ladies in this sample. Recommendations arising from the study encompass that the stakeholders, rehabilitation centers, Department of Health and future researchers ought to act proactively against substance use all through pregnancy.

Keywords: Bio-ecological factors, pregnancy risk awareness, antenatal care, substance use.

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Authors: Amani Ashari, Julia Omar, Arif Hashim, Shahrul Hamid

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Apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene polymorphism has influence on serum lipids which relates to cardiovascular risk. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency distribution of APOE alleles among Malaysian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM) patients with and without coronary artery disease (CAD) and their association with serum lipid profiles. A total of 115 patients were recruited in which 78 patients had Type 2 DM without CAD and 37 patients had Type 2 DM with CAD. The APOE polymorphism was detected by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The APOE ɛ3 allele was the most common one in both groups. There was no significant association between the APOE genotypes and the CAD status in Type 2 DM using Pearson χ² test. Further analysis indicated there were no significant differences in all lipid parameters between E2, E3 and E4 subgroups in both groups. The study showed that the E4 allele carriers of Type 2 DM with CAD patients had higher LDL-C level and lower HDL-C level compared to the other allele carriers. However, analyses showed these levels were not statistically different. The study also showed that the Type 2 DM with CAD group with E2 allele had higher triglyceride (TG). In conclusion, further study with larger sample size is needed to confirm role of E4 as a marker of CAD among Type 2 DM patients in Malaysian population.

Keywords: Apolipoprotein E, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, lipids.

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Authors: K. N. C. Njoku, Chinwendu Best Eleje, Christian Chukwuemeka Nwandu

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One of the problems facing most insurance companies is how best the burden of paying claims to its policy holders can be managed whenever need arises. Hence there is need for the insurer to buy a reinsurance contract in order to reduce risk which will enable the insurer to share the financial burden with the reinsurer. In this paper, the insurer’s and reinsurer’s strategy is investigated under the modified constant elasticity of variance (M-CEV) process and proportional administrative charges. The insurer considered investment in one risky asset and one risk free asset where the risky asset is modeled based on the M-CEV process which is an extension of constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. Next, a nonlinear partial differential equation in the form of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation is obtained by dynamic programming approach. Using power transformation technique and variable change, the explicit solutions of the optimal investment strategy and optimal reinsurance strategy are obtained. Finally, some numerical simulations of some sensitive parameters were obtained and discussed in details where we observed that the modification factor only affects the optimal investment strategy and not the reinsurance strategy for an insurer with exponential utility function.

Keywords: Reinsurance strategy, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, power transformation, M-CEV process, exponential utility.

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone.

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Authors: Edward Pol

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All companies are confronted with the need to innovate in order to meet market demands. In so doing they are challenged with the dilemma of whether to aim to be first into the market with a new innovative product, or to deliberately wait and learn from a pioneers’ mistakes; potentially avoiding higher risks. It is therefore important to critically understand from a first mover advantage and disadvantage perspective the decision-making implications of defence industry transformation onset by an innovative paradigm shift. This paper will argue that the type of industry characteristics matter, especially when considering what role the clients play in the innovation process and what their level of influence is. Through investigation of qualitative case study research, this inquiry will focus on first mover advantages and first mover disadvantages with a view to establish practical and value-added academic findings by focusing on specific industries where the clients play an active role in cooperation with the supplier innovation. The resulting findings will help managers to mitigate risk in innovative technology introduction. A selection from several defence industry innovations is specifically chosen because of the client–supplier relationship that typically differs from traditional first mover research. In this instance, case studies will be used referencing vertical-take-off-and-landing defence equipment innovations. 

Keywords: innovation, pioneer, first mover advantage, first mover disadvantage, risk

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Authors: A. A. Aiyeloja, A.T. Oladele, O. Tumulo

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Raphia wine is an important forest product with cultural significance besides its use as medicine and food in southern Nigeria. This work aims to evaluate the profitability of Raphia wine production and marketing in Sapele Local Government Area, Nigeria. Four communities (Sapele, Ogiede, Okuoke and Elume) were randomly selected for data collection via questionnaires among producers and marketers. A total of 50 producers and 34 marketers were randomly selected for interview. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, profit margin, multiple regression and rate of returns on investment (RORI). Annual average profit was highest in Okuoke (Producers – N90, 000.00, Marketers - N70, 000.00) and least in Sapele (Producers N50, 000.00, Marketers – N45, 000.00). Calculated RORI for marketers were Elume (40.0%), Okuoke (25.0%), Ogiede (33.3%) and Sapele (50.0%). Regression results showed that location has significant effects (0.000, ρ ≤ 0.05) on profit margins. Male (58.8%) and female (41.2%) invest in Raphia wine marketing, while males (100.0%) dominate production. Results showed that Raphia wine has potentials to generate household income, enhance food security and improve quality of life in rural, semi-urban and urban communities. Improved marketing channels, storage facilities and credit facilities via cooperative groups are recommended for producers and marketers by concerned agencies.

Keywords: Raphia wine, Profit margin, RORI, Livelihood, Nigeria.

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Authors: Tim Nedyalkov

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A business decision to move to the cloud brings fundamental changes in how an organization develops and delivers its Information Technology solutions. The accelerated pace of digital transformation across businesses and government agencies increases the reliance on cloud-based services. Collecting, managing, and retaining large amounts of data in cloud environments make information security and data privacy protection essential. It becomes even more important to understand what key factors drive successful cloud adoption following the commencement of the Privacy Amendment Notifiable Data Breaches (NDB) Act 2017 in Australia as the regulatory changes impact many organizations and industries. This quantitative correlational research investigated the governance, risk management, and compliance factors contributing to cloud security success. The factors influence the adoption of cloud computing within an organizational context after the commencement of the NDB scheme. The results and findings demonstrated that corporate information security policies, data storage location, management understanding of data governance responsibilities, and regular compliance assessments are the factors influencing cloud computing adoption. The research has implications for organizations, future researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and cloud computing providers to meet the rapidly changing regulatory and compliance requirements.

Keywords: Cloud compliance, cloud security, cloud security governance, data governance, privacy protection.

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Authors: Mike Climstein, Joe Walsh, John Best, Ian Timothy Heazlewood, Stephen Burke, Jyrki Kettunen, Kent Adams, Mark DeBeliso

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Recently, the health of retired National Football League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk, premature cardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar to National Football League players which suggests that rugby players may have similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby Festival (GORF) provided a unique opportunity to investigate the demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online web-based questionnaire that consisted of medical history and physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one sample t-test (<50yrs versus >50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS: A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors (response rate = 6.8%) representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0), participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current smokers was low at 8.8% (avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage consuming alcohol was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk). Competitors reported the following top six chronic diseases/disorders; hypertension (18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%), asthma (9.3%), hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to the Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data, n=18,000), GORF competitors had a significantly lower incidence of anxiety (p<0.01), arthritis (p<0.06), depression (p<.01) however, a significantly higher incidence of diabetes (p<0.03) and hypertension (p<0.01). The GORF competitors also reported taking the following prescribed medications; antihypertensive (13%), hypolipidemics (8%), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (6%), and anticoagulants (4%). Significant differences between groups were observed in antihypertensives, anticoagulants and hypolipidemics. There were significant (p<0.05) differences between groups (<50yrs versus >50yrs) with regard to height (180 vs 177cm), weight (97.6 vs 93.1Kg-s), BMI (30 vs 29.7kg/m2) and waist circumference (85.7 vs 93.1cm) however, there were no differences in subsequent parameters of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C, triglycerides-C or fasting plasma glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first collection of demographics on this cohort. GORF participants demonstrated increased cardiometabolic risk with regard to the incidence of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Preventative strategies should be developed to reduce this risk with education of these risks for future participants.

Keywords: Masters athlete, rugby union, risk factors, chronic disease

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Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

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Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: Neighbourhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada Census, ArcGIS.

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Authors: Yi-Chun Kuo, Jo-Chieh Lin

Abstract:

The objective of a supply chain strategy is to reduce waste and increase efficiency to attain cost benefits, and to guarantee supply chain flexibility when facing the ever-changing market environment in order to meet customer requirements. Strategy implementation aims to fulfill common goals and attain benefits by integrating upstream and downstream enterprises, sharing information, conducting common planning, and taking part in decision making, so as to enhance the overall performance of the supply chain. With the rise of outsourcing and globalization, the increasing dependence on suppliers and customers and the rapid development of information technology, the complexity and uncertainty of the supply chain have intensified, and supply chain vulnerability has surged, resulting in adverse effects on supply chain performance. Thus, this study aims to use supply chain vulnerability as a moderating variable and apply structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the relationships among supply chain strategy, supply chain integration, and supply chain performance, as well as the moderating effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance. The data investigation of this study was questionnaires which were collected from the management level of enterprises in Taiwan and China, 149 questionnaires were received. The result of confirmatory factor analysis shows that the path coefficients of supply chain strategy on supply chain integration and supply chain performance are positive (0.497, t= 4.914; 0.748, t= 5.919), having a significantly positive effect. Supply chain integration is also significantly positively correlated to supply chain performance (0.192, t = 2.273). The moderating effects of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain strategy and supply chain integration to supply chain performance are significant (7.407; 4.687). In Taiwan, 97.73% of enterprises are small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) focusing on receiving original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) orders. In order to meet the needs of customers and to respond to market changes, these enterprises especially focus on supply chain flexibility and their integration with the upstream and downstream enterprises. According to the observation of this research, the effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance is significant, and so enterprises need to attach great importance to the management of supply chain risk and conduct risk analysis on their suppliers in order to formulate response strategies when facing emergency situations. At the same time, risk management is incorporated into the supply chain so as to reduce the effect of supply chain vulnerability on the overall supply chain performance.

Keywords: Supply chain integration, supply chain performance, supply chain vulnerability, structural equation modeling.

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Authors: R. B. Ibrahim, M. S. Argungu, I. M. Mungadi

Abstract:

It is obvious in this present time, internet has become an indispensable part of human life since its inception. The Internet has provided diverse opportunities to make life so easy for human beings, through the adoption of various channels. Among these channels are email, internet banking, video conferencing, and the like. Email is one of the easiest means of communication hugely accepted among individuals and organizations globally. But over decades the security integrity of this platform has been challenged with malicious activities like Phishing. Email phishing is designed by phishers to fool the recipient into handing over sensitive personal information such as passwords, credit card numbers, account credentials, social security numbers, etc. This activity has caused a lot of financial damage to email users globally which has resulted in bankruptcy, sudden death of victims, and other health-related sicknesses. Although many methods have been proposed to detect email phishing, in this research, the results of multiple machine-learning methods for predicting email phishing have been compared with the use of filter-wrapper feature selection. It is worth noting that all three models performed substantially but one outperformed the other. The dataset used for these models is obtained from Kaggle online data repository, while three classifiers: decision tree, Naïve Bayes, and Logistic regression are ensemble (Bagging) respectively. Results from the study show that the Decision Tree (CART) bagging ensemble recorded the highest accuracy of 98.13% using PEF (Phishing Essential Features). This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, hybrid, filter-wrapper, phishing.

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

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Authors: Farid Ezanee Mohamed Ghazali

Abstract:

The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing, constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways had been privatized to ensure that their operational services continue through private financing as a result of long-term concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved, particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate mitigation measures prior to a contract signing. This research identifies potential operational risks that have a possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result, among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.

Keywords: Malaysia, operating highway project, operational risk.

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Authors: Abimbola Motunrayo Folami, Ibironke Titilayo Enitan, Feroz Mohomed Swalaha

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Water is a vital resource that is important in ensuring the growth and development of any country. To sustain the basic human needs and the demands for agriculture, industry, conservational and ecosystem, enough quality and quantity water is needed. Contamination of water resources is now a global and public health concern. Hence, this study assessed the water quality of Ndawuse River by measuring the physicochemical parameters and heavy metals concentrations of the river using standard methods. In total, 16 surface water samples were obtained from five locations along the river, from upstream to downstream as well as samples from the dumpsite. The results obtained were compared with the standard limits set by both the World Health Organization and the Federal Environmental Protection Agency for domestic purposes. The results of the measured parameters indicated that biological oxygen demand (85.88 mg/L), turbidity (44.51 NTU), Iron (0.014 - 3.511 mg /L) and chromium (0.078 - 0.14 mg /L) were all above the standard limits. The results further showed that the quality of surface water is being significantly affected by human activities around the Ndawuse River which could pose an adverse health risk to several communities that rely on this river as their primary source of water. Therefore, there is a need for strict enforcement of environmental laws to protect the aquatic ecosystem and to avoid long term cumulative exposure risk that heavy metals may pose on human health.

Keywords: Abuja, contaminants, heavy metals, Ndawuse River, Nigeria, surface water.

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Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

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In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: Break Even Point, Fuzzy Crisp Data, Fuzzy Sets, Productivity, Productivity Cycle, Total Productive Maintenance.

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Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

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Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: Landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type.

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Authors: F. Esmaeilzadeh, Y. Fayazi, J. Fathikaljahi

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Gas hydrates form when a number of factors co-exist: free water, hydrocarbon gas, cold temperatures and high pressures are typical of the near mud-line conditions in a deepwater drilling operation. Subsequently, when drilling with water based muds, particularly on exploration wells, the risk of hydrate formation associated with a gas influx is high. The consequences of gas hydrate formation while drilling are severe, and as such, every effort should be made to ensure the risk of hydrate formation is either eliminated or significantly reduced. Thermodynamic inhibitors are used to reduce the free water content of a drilling mud, and thus suppress the hydrate formation temperature. Very little experimental work has been performed by oil and gas research companies on the evaluation of gas hydrate formation in a water-based drilling mud. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the experimental gas hydrate formation for a mixture of methane, carbon dioxide & nitrogen in a water-based drilling mud with or without presence of different concentrations of thermodynamic inhibitors including pure salt and a combination of salt with methanol or ethylene glycol at different concentrations in a static loop apparatus. The experiments were performed using a static loop apparatus consisting of a 2.4307 cm inside diameter and 800 cm long pipe. All experiments were conducted at 2200 psia. The temperature in the loop was decreased at a rate of 3.33 °F/h from initial temperature of 80 °F.

Keywords: Hydrate formation, thermodynamic inhibitor, waterbaseddrilling mud, salt, static loop apparatus.

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Authors: Abdullah M. Algarni, Yashwant K. Malaiya

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Some of the key aspects of vulnerability—discovery, dissemination, and disclosure—have received some attention recently. However, the role of interaction among the vulnerability discoverers and vulnerability acquirers has not yet been adequately addressed. Our study suggests that a major percentage of discoverers, a majority in some cases, are unaffiliated with the software developers and thus are free to disseminate the vulnerabilities they discover in any way they like. As a result, multiple vulnerability markets have emerged. In some of these markets, the exchange is regulated, but in others, there is little or no regulation. In recent vulnerability discovery literature, the vulnerability discoverers have remained anonymous individuals. Although there has been an attempt to model the level of their efforts, information regarding their identities, modes of operation, and what they are doing with the discovered vulnerabilities has not been explored.

Reports of buying and selling of the vulnerabilities are now appearing in the press; however, the existence of such markets requires validation, and the natures of the markets need to be analyzed. To address this need, we have attempted to collect detailed information. We have identified the most prolific vulnerability discoverers throughout the past decade and examined their motivation and methods. A large percentage of these discoverers are located in Eastern and Western Europe and in the Far East. We have contacted several of them in order to collect firsthand information regarding their techniques, motivations, and involvement in the vulnerability markets. We examine why many of the discoverers appear to retire after a highly successful vulnerability-finding career. The paper identifies the actual vulnerability markets, rather than the hypothetical ideal markets that are often examined. The emergence of worldwide government agencies as vulnerability buyers has significant implications. We discuss potential factors that can impact the risk to society and the need for detailed exploration.

Keywords: Risk management, software security, vulnerability discoverers, vulnerability markets.

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

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In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: Value, risk, creation, problems, organization.

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Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, unmanned aircraft systems, system safety, uncertainty.

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