Search results for: sources of risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1912

Search results for: sources of risk

1462 Electricity Power Planning: the Role of Wind Energy

Authors: Paula Ferreira, Madalena Araújo, M.E.J. O’Kelly

Abstract:

Combining energy efficiency with renewable energy sources constitutes a key strategy for a sustainable future. The wind power sector stands out as a fundamental element for the achievement of the European renewable objectives and Portugal is no exception to the increase of the wind energy for the electricity generation. This work proposes an optimization model for the long range electricity power planning in a system similar to the Portuguese one, where the expected impacts of the increasing installed wind power on the operating performance of thermal power plants are taken into account. The main results indicate that the increasing penetration of wind power in the electricity system will have significant effects on the combined cycle gas power plants operation and on the theoretically expected cost reduction and environmental gains. This research demonstrated the need to address the impact that energy sources with variable output may have, not only on the short-term operational planning, but especially on the medium to long range planning activities, in order to meet the strategic objectives for the energy sector.

Keywords: Wind power, electricity planning model, cost, emissions.

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1461 An Overview of the Risk for HIV/AIDS among Young Women in South Africa: Gender Based Violence

Authors: Shaneil Taylor

Abstract:

Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: Gender based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, young women, Risky sexual behavior.

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1460 Intelligent Path Planning for Rescue Robot

Authors: Sohrab Khanmohammadi, Raana Soltani Zarrin

Abstract:

In this paper, a heuristic method for simultaneous rescue robot path-planning and mission scheduling is introduced based on project management techniques, multi criteria decision making and artificial potential fields path-planning. Groups of injured people are trapped in a disastrous situation. These people are categorized into several groups based on the severity of their situation. A rescue robot, whose ultimate objective is reaching injured groups and providing preliminary aid for them through a path with minimum risk, has to perform certain tasks on its way towards targets before the arrival of rescue team. A decision value is assigned to each target based on the whole degree of satisfaction of the criteria and duties of the robot toward the target and the importance of rescuing each target based on their category and the number of injured people. The resulted decision value defines the strength of the attractive potential field of each target. Dangerous environmental parameters are defined as obstacles whose risk determines the strength of the repulsive potential field of each obstacle. Moreover, negative and positive energies are assigned to the targets and obstacles, which are variable with respects to the factors involved. The simulation results show that the generated path for two cases studies with certain differences in environmental conditions and other risk factors differ considerably.

Keywords: Artificial potential field, GERT, path planning

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1459 The Risk Assessment of Nano-particles and Investigation of Their Environmental Impact

Authors: Nader Nabhani, Amir Tofighi

Abstract:

Nanotechnology is the science of creating, using and manipulating objects which have at least one dimension in range of 0.1 to 100 nanometers. In other words, nanotechnology is reconstructing a substance using its individual atoms and arranging them in a way that is desirable for our purpose. The main reason that nanotechnology has been attracting attentions is the unique properties that objects show when they are formed at nano-scale. These differing characteristics that nano-scale materials show compared to their nature-existing form is both useful in creating high quality products and dangerous when being in contact with body or spread in environment. In order to control and lower the risk of such nano-scale particles, the main following three topics should be considered: 1) First of all, these materials would cause long term diseases that may show their effects on body years after being penetrated in human organs and since this science has become recently developed in industrial scale not enough information is available about their hazards on body. 2) The second is that these particles can easily spread out in environment and remain in air, soil or water for very long time, besides their high ability to penetrate body skin and causing new kinds of diseases. 3) The third one is that to protect body and environment against the danger of these particles, the protective barriers must be finer than these small objects and such defenses are hard to accomplish. This paper will review, discuss and assess the risks that human and environment face as this new science develops at a high rate.

Keywords: Nanotechnology, risk assessment, environment.

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1458 Injury Prediction for Soccer Players Using Machine Learning

Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

Abstract:

Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor while others can cause huge impact on a player’s career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player’s number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: Injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer.

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1457 ZBTB17 Gene rs10927875 Polymorphism in Slovak Patients with Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kmec, E. Petrejčíková

Abstract:

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a severe cardiovascular disorder characterized by progressive systolic dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient myocardial contractility often leading to chronic heart failure. Recently, a genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on DCM indicate that the ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 single nucleotide polymorphism is associated with DCM. The aim of the study was to identify the distribution of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism in 50 Slovak patients with DCM and 80 healthy control subjects using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Risk factors detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. The mean age of patients with DCM was 52.9±6.3 years; the mean age of individuals in control group was 50.3±8.9 years. The distribution of investigated genotypes of rs10927875 polymorphism within ZBTB17 gene in the cohort of Slovak patients with DCM was as follows: CC (38.8%), CT (55.1%), TT (6.1%), in controls: CC (43.8%), CT (51.2%), TT (5.0%). The risk allele T was more common among the patients with dilated cardiomyopathy than in normal controls (33.7% versus 30.6%). The differences in genotype or allele frequencies of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism were not statistically significant (p=0.6908; p=0.6098). The results of this study suggest that ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism may be a risk factor for susceptibility to DCM in Slovak patients with DCM. Studies of numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to fully understand the roles of genetic associations.

Keywords: Dilated cardiomyopathy, SNP polymorphism, ZBTB17 gene.

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1456 The Management and Funding of Education in Nigeria

Authors: Teryima Oralu, Babatunde Kasim Oladele

Abstract:

This paper looks at the management and funding of education in Nigeria. The concept of management and administration has been concisely defined. Also the historical background of educational management in Nigeria has been discussed alongside the management of primary education, secondary education and tertiary education in Nigeria. Furthermore, the funding of education has also been concisely discussed in this paper alongside the various sources of funds available to education in Nigeria. The sources include government grant, school fees, external aids, school revenue yielding businesses and so on. The budgetary allocation of Nigeria to education from 1999 to 2013 was also highlighted in this in paper and it was discovered that the lowest allocation was in 1999 with 4.46% while the highest allocation was in 2006 with 10.43%. It is also of note that, Nigeria is still yet to meet the recommendation of UNESCO of 26% budgetary allocation to education by developing countries. Recommendations have been drawn that the government should increase budgetary allocation to this sector in a consistent manner because of its importance to the national economy, hoping that with proper monitoring of fund, it would contribute more significantly to the development of the country. An effective utilization of such funds is also advocated for greater achievements. All organs of the government should exhibit good corporate governance and transparency and so on.

Keywords: Education, funding, management, Nigeria.

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1455 Thermal Comfort and Energy Saving Evaluation of a Combined System in an Office Room Using Displacement Ventilation

Authors: A. Q. Ahmed, S. Gao

Abstract:

In this paper, the energy saving and human thermal comfort in a typical office room are investigated. The impact of a combined system of exhaust inlet air with light slots located at the ceiling level in a room served by displacement ventilation system is numerically modelled. Previous experimental data are used to validate the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model. A case study of simulated office room includes two seating occupants, two computers, two data loggers and four lamps. The combined system is located at the ceiling level above the heat sources. A new method of calculation for the cooling coil load in Stratified Air Distribution (STRAD) system is used in this study. The results show that 47.4% energy saving of space cooling load can be achieved by combing the exhaust inlet air with light slots at the ceiling level above the heat sources.

Keywords: Air conditioning, Displacement ventilation, Energy saving, Thermal comfort.

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1454 CFD Analysis on Aerodynamic Design Optimization of Wind Turbine Rotor Blades

Authors: R.S. Amano, R.J. Malloy

Abstract:

Wind energy has been shown to be one of the most viable sources of renewable energy. With current technology, the low cost of wind energy is competitive with more conventional sources of energy such as coal. Most blades available for commercial grade wind turbines incorporate a straight span-wise profile and airfoil shaped cross sections. These blades are found to be very efficient at lower wind speeds in comparison to the potential energy that can be extracted. However as the oncoming wind speed increases the efficiency of the blades decreases as they approach a stall point. This paper explores the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the blades at higher wind speeds while maintaining efficiency at the lower wind speeds. The design intends to maintain efficiency at lower wind speeds by selecting the appropriate orientation and size of the airfoil cross sections based on a low oncoming wind speed and given constant rotation rate. The blades will be made more efficient at higher wind speeds by implementing a swept blade profile. Performance was investigated using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD).

Keywords: CFD, wind turbine blade, renewable energy.

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1453 The Cost and Benefit on the Investment in Safety and Health of the Enterprises in Thailand

Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.

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1452 Techno-Economic Study on the Potential of Dimethyl Ether as a Substitute for LPG

Authors: W. A. Pamungkas, R. B. Setyawati, A. F. Rifai, C. P. Setiawan, A. W. Budiman, Inayati, J. Waluyo, S. H. Pranolo

Abstract:

The increase in LPG consumption in Indonesia is not balanced with the amount of supply. The high demand for LPG due to the success of the government's kerosene-to-LPG conversion program and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to an increase in LPG consumption in the household sector and caused Indonesia's trade balance to experience a deficit. The high consumption of LPG encourages the need for alternative fuels which aims to substitute LPG. Dimethyl Ether (DME) is an organic compound with the chemical formula CH3OCH3, has a high cetane number and has characteristics similar to LPG. DME can be produced from various sources such as coal, biomass and natural gas. Based on the economic analysis conducted at 10% Internal Rate of Return (IRR), coal has the largest Net Present Value (NPV) of Rp. 20,034,837,497,241 with a payback period of 3.86 years, then biomass with an NPV of Rp. 10,401,526,072,850 and payback period of 5.16. The latter is natural gas with an NPV of IDR 7,401,272,559,191 and a payback period of 6.17 years. Of the three sources of raw materials used, if the sensitivity is calculated using the selling price of DME equal to the selling price of LPG, it will get an NPV value that is greater than the NPV value when using the current DME price. The advantages of coal as a raw material for DME are profitableness, low price and abundant resources, but it has high greenhouse gas emission.

Keywords: LPG, DME, coal, biomass, natural gas.

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1451 Italian Central Guarantee Fund: An Analysis of the Guaranteed SMEs’ Default Risk

Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi

Abstract:

Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

Keywords: Banks, default risk, Italian Guarantee Fund, mutual guarantee institutions.

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1450 Planning of Road Infrastructure Financing: Computational Finance Viewpoint

Authors: Ornst J., Voracek J., Allouache A., Allouache D.

Abstract:

Lack of resources for road infrastructure financing is a problem that currently affects not only eastern European economies but also many other countries especially in relation to the impact of global financial crisis. In this context, we are talking about the socalled short-investment problem as a result of long-term lack of investment resources. Based on an analysis of road infrastructure financing in the Czech Republic this article points out at weaknesses of current system and proposes a long-term planning methodology supported by system approach. Within this methodology and using created system dynamic model the article predicts the development of short-investment problem in the Country and in reaction on the downward trend of certain sources the article presents various scenarios resulting from the change of the structure of financial sources. In the discussion the article focuses more closely on the possibility of introduction of tax on vehicles instead of taxes with declining revenue streams and estimates its approximate price in relation to reaching various solutions of short-investment in time.

Keywords: Road financing, road infrastructure development, system dynamics

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1449 The Impact of Transaction Costs on Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in Portfolio Optimization

Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

Abstract:

Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Fractional quadratic programming, Markowitz model, Portfolio optimization, Transaction costs.

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1448 Biokinetics of Coping Mechanism of Freshwater tilapia following Exposure to Waterborne and Dietary Copper

Authors: Jeng-Wei Tsai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to understand the main sources of copper (Cu) accumulation in target organs of tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) and to investigate how the organism mediate the process of Cu accumulation under prolonged conditions. By measuring both dietary and waterborne Cu accumulation and total concentrations in tilapia with biokinetic modeling approach, we were able to clarify the biokinetic coping mechanisms for the long term Cu accumulation. This study showed that water and food are both the major source of Cu for the muscle and liver of tilapia. This implied that control the Cu concentration in these two routes will be correlated to the Cu bioavailability for tilapia. We found that exposure duration and level of waterborne Cu drove the Cu accumulation in tilapia. The ability for Cu biouptake and depuration in organs of tilapia were actively mediated under prolonged exposure conditions. Generally, the uptake rate, depuration rate and net bioaccumulation ability in all selected organs decreased with the increasing level of waterborne Cu and extension of exposure duration.Muscle tissues accounted for over 50%of the total accumulated Cu and played a key role in buffering the Cu burden in the initial period of exposure, alternatively, the liver acted a more important role in the storage of Cu with the extension of exposures. We concluded that assumption of the constant biokinetic rates could lead to incorrect predictions with overestimating the long-term Cu accumulation in ecotoxicological risk assessments.

Keywords: Biokinetics, Chronic exposure, Copper, Coping mechanism, Tilapia

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1447 Ports and Airports: Gateways to Vector-Borne Diseases in Portugal Mainland

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Maria J. Alves, Sofia Cunha

Abstract:

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, sandflies, bugs, ticks, and other vectors. Some are re-transmitted between vectors, if the infected human has a new contact when his levels of infection are high. The vector is infected for lifetime and can transmit infectious diseases not only between humans but also from animals to humans. Some vector borne diseases are very disabling and globally account for more than one million deaths worldwide. The mosquitoes from the complex Culex pipiens sl. are the most abundant in Portugal, and we dispose in this moment of a data set from the surveillance program that has been carried on since 2006 across the country. All mosquitos’ species are included, but the large coverage of Culex pipiens sl. and its importance for public health make this vector an interesting candidate to assess risk of disease amplification. This work focus on ports and airports identified as key areas of high density of vectors. Mosquitoes being ectothermic organisms, the main factor for vector survival and pathogen development is temperature. Minima and maxima local air temperatures for each area of interest are averaged by month from data gathered on a daily basis at the national network of meteorological stations, and interpolated in a geographic information system (GIS). The range of temperatures ideal for several pathogens are known and this work shows how to use it with the meteorological data in each port and airport facility, to focus an efficient implementation of countermeasures and reduce simultaneously risk transmission and mitigation costs. The results show an increased alert with decreasing latitude, which corresponds to higher minimum and maximum temperatures and a lower amplitude range of the daily temperature.

Keywords: Human health, risk assessment, risk management, vector-borne diseases.

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1446 Village Construction under China-s Rapid Urbanization: The Role and Strategy of Planning in the Rural Areas

Authors: Chen Zhang, Jiwu Wang

Abstract:

With China's urbanization continuing to accelerate, a amount of rural people flood into China's cities in recent years, and the issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers is getting more and more serious. In 2005, the Chinese government put forward a plan for “the construction of new rural village", in order to coordinate the development of both urban and rural areas. The planning method of rural region differs sharply from that of urban areas, as same as village social structure and habits of farmer-s life, so the studies which can consider the special needs of village construction in China are absolutely essential. This paper expresses explore current situation and problems existing in the construction of China-s new rural village, such as bigger gap between urban and rural areas, excessive new construction projects, extinct traditional village style and so on. It tries to analyze the deep reason of the present situation of the village from law system, industrial structure, financial sources and planning method. Then it also provides a guide for developing policies and procedures promoting the development of china-s rural areas.

Keywords: Rural areas, village construction, physical planning, law system, financial sources, Public participation, China.

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1445 Design and Control of PEM Fuel Cell Diffused Aeration System using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Authors: Doaa M. Atia, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. Ahmed, Hassen T. Dorrah

Abstract:

Fuel cells have become one of the major areas of research in the academia and the industry. The goal of most fish farmers is to maximize production and profits while holding labor and management efforts to the minimum. Risk of fish kills, disease outbreaks, poor water quality in most pond culture operations, aeration offers the most immediate and practical solution to water quality problems encountered at higher stocking and feeding rates. Many units of aeration system are electrical units so using a continuous, high reliability, affordable, and environmentally friendly power sources is necessary. Aeration of water by using PEM fuel cell power is not only a new application of the renewable energy, but also, it provides an affordable method to promote biodiversity in stagnant ponds and lakes. This paper presents a new design and control of PEM fuel cell powered a diffused air aeration system for a shrimp farm in Mersa Matruh in Egypt. Also Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques control is used to control the fuel cell output power by control input gases flow rate. Moreover the mathematical modeling and simulation of PEM fuel cell is introduced. A comparison study is applied between the performance of fuzzy logic control (FLC) and neural network control (NNC). The results show the effectiveness of NNC over FLC.

Keywords: PEM fuel cell, Diffused aeration system, Artificialintelligence (AI) techniques, neural network control, fuzzy logiccontrol

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1444 Multi-Faceted Growth in Creative Industries

Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: Creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures.

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1443 Evaluation of Optimal Transfer Capability in Power System Interconnection

Authors: Jin-O Kim, Hyun-Il Son

Abstract:

As the electrical power industry is restructured, the electrical power exchange is becoming extended. One of the key information used to determine how much power can be transferred through the network is known as available transfer capability (ATC). To calculate ATC, traditional deterministic approach is based on the severest case, but the approach has the complexity of procedure. Therefore, novel approach for ATC calculation is proposed using cost-optimization method in this paper, and is compared with well-being method and risk-benefit method. This paper proposes the optimal transfer capability of HVDC system between mainland and a separated island in Korea through these three methods. These methods will consider production cost, wheeling charge through HVDC system and outage cost with one depth (N-1 contingency)

Keywords: ATC, power system interconnection, well-being method, cost-optimization method, risk-benefit analysis, outage cost.

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1442 Stochastic Edge Based Anomaly Detection for Supervisory Control and Data Acquisitions Systems: Considering the Zambian Power Grid

Authors: Lukumba Phiri, Simon Tembo, Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni

Abstract:

In Zambia, recent initiatives by various power operators like ZESCO, CEC, and consumers like the mines, to upgrade power systems into smart grids, target an even tighter integration with information technologies to enable the integration of renewable energy sources, local and bulk generation, and demand response. Thus, for the reliable operation of smart grids, its information infrastructure must be secure and reliable in the face of both failures and cyberattacks. Due to the nature of the systems, ICS/SCADA cybersecurity and governance face additional challenges compared to the corporate networks, and critical systems may be left exposed. There exist control frameworks internationally such as the NIST framework, however, they are generic and do not meet the domain-specific needs of the SCADA systems. Zambia is also lagging in cybersecurity awareness and adoption, and therefore there is a concern about securing ICS controlling key infrastructure critical to the Zambian economy as there are few known facts about the true posture. In this paper, we present a stochastic Edged-based Anomaly Detection for SCADA systems (SEADS) framework for threat modeling and risk assessment. SEADS enables the calculation of steady-steady probabilities that are further applied to establish metrics like system availability, maintainability, and reliability.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, SmartGrid, edge, maintainability, reliability, stochastic process.

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1441 A Model for Optimal Design of Mixed Renewable Warranty Policy for Non-Repairable Weibull Life Products under Conflict between Customer and Manufacturer Interests

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

A model is presented to find the optimal design of the mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty cost and risk.

Keywords: Reliability, Mixed warranty policy, Optimization, Weibull Distribution.

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1440 Identifying Knowledge Gaps in Incorporating Toxicity of Particulate Matter Constituents for Developing Regulatory Limits on Particulate Matter

Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal

Abstract:

Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.

Keywords: Air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter.

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1439 Multimedia Data Fusion for Event Detection in Twitter by Using Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

Authors: Samar M. Alqhtani, Suhuai Luo, Brian Regan

Abstract:

Data fusion technology can be the best way to extract useful information from multiple sources of data. It has been widely applied in various applications. This paper presents a data fusion approach in multimedia data for event detection in twitter by using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology applies a mining algorithm to detect the event. There are two types of data in the fusion. The first is features extracted from text by using the bag-ofwords method which is calculated using the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). The second is the visual features extracted by applying scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT). The Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence is applied in order to fuse the information from these two sources. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual data source, the proposed data fusion approach can increase the prediction accuracy for event detection. The experimental result showed that the proposed method achieved a high accuracy of 0.97, comparing with 0.93 with texts only, and 0.86 with images only.

Keywords: Data fusion, Dempster-Shafer theory, data mining, event detection.

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1438 Assessment of Predictive Confounders for the Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Iraqi Population: A Retrospective Study from Baghdad, Iraq

Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

Abstract:

Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m2. 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal breast cancer, hormone sensitivity, Iraq, risk factors.

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1437 Harnessing the Potential of Renewable Energy Sources to Reduce Fossil Energy Consumption in the Wastewater Treatment Process

Authors: Hen Friman

Abstract:

Various categories of aqueous solutions are discharged within residential, institutional, commercial, and industrial structures. To safeguard public health and preserve the environment, it is imperative to subject wastewater to treatment processes that eliminate pathogens (such as bacteria and viruses), nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorus), and other compounds. Failure to address untreated sewage accumulation can result in an array of adverse consequences. Israel exemplifies a special case in wastewater management. Appropriate wastewater treatment significantly benefits sectors such as agriculture, tourism, horticulture, and industry. Nevertheless, untreated sewage in settlements lacking proper sewage collection or transportation networks remains an ongoing and substantial threat. Notably, the process of wastewater treatment entails substantial energy consumption. Consequently, this study explores the integration of solar energy as a renewable power source within the wastewater treatment framework. By incorporating renewable energy sources into the process, costs can be minimized, and decentralized facilities can be established even in areas lacking adequate infrastructure for traditional treatment methods.

Keywords: Renewable energy, solar energy, decentralized facilities, wastewater treatment.

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1436 Array Signal Processing: DOA Estimation for Missing Sensors

Authors: Lalita Gupta, R. P. Singh

Abstract:

Array signal processing involves signal enumeration and source localization. Array signal processing is centered on the ability to fuse temporal and spatial information captured via sampling signals emitted from a number of sources at the sensors of an array in order to carry out a specific estimation task: source characteristics (mainly localization of the sources) and/or array characteristics (mainly array geometry) estimation. Array signal processing is a part of signal processing that uses sensors organized in patterns or arrays, to detect signals and to determine information about them. Beamforming is a general signal processing technique used to control the directionality of the reception or transmission of a signal. Using Beamforming we can direct the majority of signal energy we receive from a group of array. Multiple signal classification (MUSIC) is a highly popular eigenstructure-based estimation method of direction of arrival (DOA) with high resolution. This Paper enumerates the effect of missing sensors in DOA estimation. The accuracy of the MUSIC-based DOA estimation is degraded significantly both by the effects of the missing sensors among the receiving array elements and the unequal channel gain and phase errors of the receiver.

Keywords: Array Signal Processing, Beamforming, ULA, Direction of Arrival, MUSIC

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1435 Cross-Industry Innovations – Systematic Identification and Adaption

Authors: Niklas Echterhoff, Benjamin Amshoff, Jürgen Gausemeier

Abstract:

Due to today-s fierce competition, companies have to be proactive creators of the future by effectively developing innovations. Especially radical innovations allow high profit margins – but they also entail high risks. One possibility to realize radical innovations and reduce the risk of failure is cross-industry innovation (CII). CII brings together problems and solution ideas from different industries. However, there is a lack of systematic ways towards CII. Bridging this gap, the present paper provides a systematic approach towards planned CII. Starting with the analysis of potentials, the definition of promising search strategies is crucial. Subsequently, identified solution ideas need to be assessed. For the most promising ones, the adaption process has to be systematically planned – regarding the risk affinity of a company. The introduced method is explained on a project from the furniture industry.

Keywords: Analogy building, cross-industry innovations, knowledge transfer, solution adaption.

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1434 Leveraging Quality Metrics in Voting Model Based Thread Retrieval

Authors: Atefeh Heydari, Mohammadali Tavakoli, Zuriati Ismail, Naomie Salim

Abstract:

Seeking and sharing knowledge on online forums have made them popular in recent years. Although online forums are valuable sources of information, due to variety of sources of messages, retrieving reliable threads with high quality content is an issue. Majority of the existing information retrieval systems ignore the quality of retrieved documents, particularly, in the field of thread retrieval. In this research, we present an approach that employs various quality features in order to investigate the quality of retrieved threads. Different aspects of content quality, including completeness, comprehensiveness, and politeness, are assessed using these features, which lead to finding not only textual, but also conceptual relevant threads for a user query within a forum. To analyse the influence of the features, we used an adopted version of voting model thread search as a retrieval system. We equipped it with each feature solely and also various combinations of features in turn during multiple runs. The results show that incorporating the quality features enhances the effectiveness of the utilised retrieval system significantly.

Keywords: Content quality, Forum search, Thread retrieval, Voting techniques.

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1433 Effect of Various Pollen Sources to Ability Fruit Set and Quality in ‘Long Red B’ Wax Apple

Authors: Nguyen Minh Tuan, Yen Chung-Ruey

Abstract:

By hand pollination was conducted to evaluated different pollen sources and their affects on fruit set and quality of wax apple. The following parameters were recorded: fruit set, seed set, fruit characteristics. Results showed that fruit set percentage with seed were significantly high in ‘Long Red B’ when ‘Black’, ‘Thyto’ were used as pollen parents. Pollen of ‘Black’, ‘Thyto’ resulted in high fruit weight, fruit diameter, fruit length, bigger flesh thickness, better total soluble solids as compared with other pollens. The observation of pollen-growth in vitro revealed that pollen germination at 15% sucrose concentration are required for optimum pollen germination with the high pollen germination were found in ‘Black’, ‘Thyto’. From the result, we concluded that ‘Black’, ‘Thyto’ were proved to be good pollinizers in ‘Long Red B’. Therefore, artificial cross-pollination using ‘Black’, ‘Thyto’ as pollinizers were strongly recommended for ‘Long Red B’ cultivar in wax apple orchard.

Keywords: Wax apple, pollination, pollen source, in vitro, fruit quality.

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