Search results for: risk assessment and numerical modelling.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4900

Search results for: risk assessment and numerical modelling.

4450 Exploring the Effect of Accounting Information on Systematic Risk: An Empirical Evidence of Tehran Stock Exchange

Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

Abstract:

This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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4449 Modelling of Groundwater Resources for Al-Najaf City, Iraq

Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

Abstract:

Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW.

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4448 Mining Implicit Knowledge to Predict Political Risk by Providing Novel Framework with Using Bayesian Network

Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

Abstract:

Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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4447 Reconstruction of the Most Energetic Modes in a Fully Developed Turbulent Channel Flow with Density Variation

Authors: Elteyeb Eljack, Takashi Ohta

Abstract:

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to reconstruct spatio-temporal data of a fully developed turbulent channel flow with density variation at Reynolds number of 150, based on the friction velocity and the channel half-width, and Prandtl number of 0.71. To apply POD to the fully developed turbulent channel flow with density variation, the flow field (velocities, density, and temperature) is scaled by the corresponding root mean square values (rms) so that the flow field becomes dimensionless. A five-vector POD problem is solved numerically. The reconstructed second-order moments of velocity, temperature, and density from POD eigenfunctions compare favorably to the original Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data.

Keywords: Pattern Recognition, POD, Coherent Structures, Low dimensional modelling.

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4446 Devising a Paradigm for the Assessment of Guilt across Species

Authors: Trisha S. Malhotra

Abstract:

While there exist frameworks to study the induction, manifestation, duration and general nature of emotions like shame, guilt, embarrassment and pride in humans, the same cannot be said for other species. This is because such 'complex' emotions have situational inductions and manifestations that supposedly vary due to differences between and within different species' ethology. This paper looks at the socio-adaptive functions of guilt to posit why this emotion might be observed across varying species. Primarily, the experimental paradigm of guilt-assessment in domesticated dogs is critiqued for lack of ethological consideration in its measurement and analysis. It is argued that a paradigm for guilt-assessment should measure the species-specific prosocial approach behavior instead of the immediate feedback of the 'guilty'. Finally, it is asserted that the origin of guilt is subjective and if it must be studied across a plethora of species, its definition must be tailored to fit accordingly.

Keywords: Guilt, assessment, dogs, prosocial approach behavior, empathy, species, ethology.

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4445 Risk Level Evaluation for Power System Facilities in Smart Grid

Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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4444 Numerical Investigation of Two-dimensional Boundary Layer Flow Over a Moving Surface

Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, R.N. Pralhad

Abstract:

In this chapter, we have studied Variation of velocity in incompressible fluid over a moving surface. The boundary layer equations are on a fixed or continuously moving flat plate in the same or opposite direction to the free stream with suction and injection. The boundary layer equations are transferred from partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations. Numerical solutions are obtained by using Runge-Kutta and Shooting methods. We have found numerical solution to velocity and skin friction coefficient.

Keywords: Boundary layer, continuously moving surface, shooting method, skin friction coefficient.

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4443 A Risk Assessment for the Small Hive Beetle Based on Meteorological Standard Measurements

Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature.

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4442 Some Considerations on UML Class Diagram Formalisation Approaches

Authors: Abdullah A. H. Alzahrani, Majd Zohri Yafi, Fawaz K. Alarfaj

Abstract:

Unified Modelling Language (UML) is a software modelling language that is widely used and accepted. One significant drawback, of which, is that the language lacks formality. This makes carrying out any type of rigorous analysis difficult process. Many researchers attempt to introduce their approaches to formalise UML diagrams. However, it is always hard to decide what language and/or approach to use. Therefore, in this paper, we highlight some of the advantages and disadvantages of number of those approaches. We also try to compare different counterpart approaches. In addition, we draw some guidelines to help in choosing the suitable approach. Special concern is given to the formalisation of the static aspects of UML shown is class diagrams.

Keywords: UML formalisation, Object Constraints Language (OCL), Description Logic (DL), Z language.

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4441 Disaster Preparedness for Academic Libraries in Malaysia: An Exploratory Study

Authors: Siti Juryiah Mohd Khalid, Norazlina Dol

Abstract:

Academic libraries in Malaysia are still not prepared for disaster even though several occasions have been reported. The study sets out to assess the current status of preparedness in disaster management among Malaysian academic libraries in the State of Selangor and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur. To obtain a base level of knowledge on disaster preparedness of current practices, a questionnaire was distributed to chief librarians or their assignees in charge of disaster or emergency preparedness at 40 academic libraries and 34 responses were received. The study revolved around the current status of preparedness, on various issues including existence of disaster preparedness plan among academic libraries in Malaysia, disaster experiences by the academic libraries, funding, risk assessment activities and involvement of library staff in disaster management. Frequency and percentage tables were used in the analysis of the data collected. Some of the academic libraries under study have experienced one form of disaster or the other. Most of the academic libraries do not have a written disaster preparedness plan. The risk assessments and staff involvement in disaster preparedness by these libraries were generally adequate.

Keywords: Academic libraries, disaster preparedness plan, disaster management, emergency plan.

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4440 Q-Test of Undergraduate Epistemology and Scientific Thought: Development and Testing of an Assessment of Scientific Epistemology

Authors: Matthew J. Zagumny

Abstract:

The QUEST is an assessment of scientific epistemic beliefs and was developed to measure students’ intellectual development in regards to beliefs about knowledge and knowing. The QUEST utilizes Q-sort methodology, which requires participants to rate the degree to which statements describe them personally. As a measure of personal theories of knowledge, the QUEST instrument is described with the Q-sort distribution and scoring explained. A preliminary demonstration of the QUEST assessment is described with two samples of undergraduate students (novice/lower division compared to advanced/upper division students) being assessed and their average QUEST scores compared. The usefulness of an assessment of epistemology is discussed in terms of the principle that assessment tends to drive educational practice and university mission. The critical need for university and academic programs to focus on development of students’ scientific epistemology is briefly discussed.

Keywords: Scientific epistemology, critical thinking, Q-sort method, STEM undergraduates.

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4439 Fragility Assessment for Torsionally Asymmetric Buildings in Plan

Authors: S. Feli, S. Tavousi Tafreshi, A. Ghasemi

Abstract:

The present paper aims at evaluating the response of three-dimensional buildings with in-plan stiffness irregularities that have been subjected to two-way excitation ground motion records simultaneously. This study is broadly-based fragility assessment with greater emphasis on structural response at in-plan flexible and stiff sides. To this end, three type of three-dimensional 5-story steel building structures with stiffness eccentricities, were subjected to extensive nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) utilizing Ibarra-Krawinkler deterioration models. Fragility assessment was implemented for different configurations of braces to investigate the losses in buildings with center of resisting (CR) eccentricities.

Keywords: Ibarra Krawinkler, fragility assessment, flexible and stiff side, center of resisting.

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4438 Numerical Simulation of Cavitation and Aeration in Discharge Gated Tunnel of a Dam Based on the VOF Method

Authors: Razieh Jalalabadi, Norouz Mohammad Nouri

Abstract:

Cavitation, usually known as a destructive phenomenon, involves turbulent unsteady two-phase flow. Having such features, cavitating flows have been turned to a challenging topic in numerical studies and many researches are being done for better understanding of bubbly flows and proposing solutions to reduce its consequent destructive effects. Aeration may be regarded as an effective protection against cavitation erosion in many hydraulic structures, like gated tunnels. The paper concerns numerical simulation of flow in discharge gated tunnel of a dam using ing RNG k -ε model coupled with the volume of fluid (VOF) method and the zone which is susceptible of cavitation inception in the tunnel is predicted. In the second step, a vent is considered in the mentioned zone for aeration and the numerical simulation is done again to study the effects of aeration. The results show that aeration is an impressively useful method to exclude cavitation in mentioned tunnels.

Keywords: Aeration, Cavitation, Two-phase flow, TurbulentFlow, Volume of Fluid (VOF) method.

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4437 Continuity Planning in Supply Chain Networks: Degrees of Freedom and Application in the Risk Management Process

Authors: Marco Bötel, Tobias Gelau, Wendelin Gross

Abstract:

Supply chain networks are frequently hit by unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up which supports effective operational responses in supply chain networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further embedded into a common risk management process. The paper provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the network related options for responsive actions and to determine the need for improving the reaction capabilities.

Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Business Continuity Planning, Degrees of Freedom, Risk Management Process, Mitigation Measures.

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4436 Machine Learning Methods for Flood Hazard Mapping

Authors: S. Zappacosta, C. Bove, M. Carmela Marinelli, P. di Lauro, K. Spasenovic, L. Ostano, G. Aiello, M. Pietrosanto

Abstract:

This paper proposes a neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (Piani Assetto Idrogeologico, acronimed as PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), encoding four different increasing flood hazard levels. The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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4435 From Risk/Security Analysis via Timespace to a Model of Human Vulnerability and Human Security

Authors: Anders Troedsson

Abstract:

For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: Human vulnerabilities, human security, inert-immediate, material-immaterial, timespace.

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4434 A Numerical Study of a Droplet Impinging on a Liquid Surface

Authors: S.Asadi, H.Panahi

Abstract:

The Navier–Stokes equations for unsteady, incompressible, viscous fluids in the axisymmetric coordinate system are solved using a control volume method. The volume-of-fluid (VOF) technique is used to track the free-surface of the liquid. Model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. It is found that the dynamic processes after impact are sensitive to the initial droplet velocity and the liquid pool depth. The time evolution of the crown height and diameter are obtained by numerical simulation. The critical We number for splashing (Wecr) is studied for Oh (Ohnesorge) numbers in the range of 0.01~0.1; the results compares well with those of the experiments.

Keywords: Droplet impingement, free surface flows, liquid crown, numerical simulation, thin liquid film.

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4433 3D Numerical Investigation of Asphalt Pavements Behaviour Using Infinite Elements

Authors: K. Sandjak, B. Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of three-dimensional (3-D) numerical investigation of asphalt pavement structures behaviour using a coupled Finite Element-Mapped Infinite Element (FE-MIE) model. The validation and numerical performance of this model are assessed by confronting critical pavement responses with Burmister’s solution and FEM simulation results for multi-layered elastic structures. The coupled model is then efficiently utilised to perform 3-D simulations of a typical asphalt pavement structure in order to investigate the impact of two tire configurations (conventional dual and new generation wide-base tires) on critical pavement response parameters. The numerical results obtained show the effectiveness and the accuracy of the coupled (FE-MIE) model. In addition, the simulation results indicate that, compared with conventional dual tire assembly, single wide base tire caused slightly greater fatigue asphalt cracking and subgrade rutting potentials and can thus be utilised in view of its potential to provide numerous mechanical, economic, and environmental benefits.

Keywords: Infinite elements, 3-D numerical investigation, asphalt pavements, dual and wide base tires.

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4432 Risk Management Analysis: An Empirical Study Using Bivariate GARCH

Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

Abstract:

This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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4431 Study on a Nested Cartesian Grid Method

Authors: Yih-Ferng Peng

Abstract:

In this paper, the local grid refinement is focused by using a nested grid technique. The Cartesian grid numerical method is developed for simulating unsteady, viscous, incompressible flows with complex immersed boundaries. A finite volume method is used in conjunction with a two-step fractional-step procedure. The key aspects that need to be considered in developing such a nested grid solver are imposition of interface conditions on the inter-block and accurate discretization of the governing equation in cells that are with the inter-block as a control surface. A new interpolation procedure is presented which allows systematic development of a spatial discretization scheme that preserves the spatial accuracy of the underlying solver. The present nested grid method has been tested by two numerical examples to examine its performance in the two dimensional problems. The numerical examples include flow past a circular cylinder symmetrically installed in a Channel and flow past two circular cylinders with different diameters. From the numerical experiments, the ability of the solver to simulate flows with complicated immersed boundaries is demonstrated and the nested grid approach can efficiently speed up the numerical solutions.

Keywords: local grid refinement, Cartesian grid, nested grid, fractional-step method.

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4430 Perceived Risks in Business-to-Consumer Online Contracts: An Empirical Study in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

Abstract:

Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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4429 Analysis of a TBM Tunneling Effect on Surface Subsidence: A Case Study from Tehran, Iran

Authors: A. R. Salimi, M. Esmaeili, B. Salehi

Abstract:

The development and extension of large cities induced a need for shallow tunnel in soft ground of building areas. Estimation of ground settlement caused by the tunnel excavation is important engineering point. In this paper, prediction of surface subsidence caused by tunneling in one section of seventh line of Tehran subway is considered. On the basis of studied geotechnical conditions of the region, tunnel with the length of 26.9km has been excavated applying a mechanized method using an EPB-TBM with a diameter of 9.14m. In this regard, settlement is estimated utilizing both analytical and numerical finite element method. The numerical method shows that the value of settlement in this section is 5cm. Besides, the analytical consequences (Bobet and Loganathan-Polous) are 5.29 and 12.36cm, respectively. According to results of this study, due tosaturation of this section, there are good agreement between Bobet and numerical methods. Therefore, tunneling processes in this section needs a special consolidation measurement and support system before the passage of tunnel boring machine.

Keywords: TBM, Subsidence, Numerical Method, Analytical Method.

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4428 Numerical Solution of Riccati Differential Equations by Using Hybrid Functions and Tau Method

Authors: Changqing Yang, Jianhua Hou, Beibo Qin

Abstract:

A numerical method for Riccati equation is presented in this work. The method is based on the replacement of unknown functions through a truncated series of hybrid of block-pulse functions and Chebyshev polynomials. The operational matrices of derivative and product of hybrid functions are presented. These matrices together with the tau method are then utilized to transform the differential equation into a system of algebraic equations. Corresponding numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.

Keywords: Hybrid functions, Riccati differential equation, Blockpulse, Chebyshev polynomials, Tau method, operational matrix.

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4427 Environmental Impact of Sustainability Dispersion of Chlorine Releases in Coastal Zone of Alexandra: Spatial-Ecological Modeling

Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

Abstract:

The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s system. Naturally exchanged patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s system. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of an industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA-safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and rural areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is predicted for multiple factors distribution schemes of multi-criteria analysis. The input–output analysis is explored from the spillover effect, and we conducted Monte Carlo simulations for sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the composite index for biosphere with collective structure of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in an artistic/architectural perspective. The hypothesis is deployed to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure in development urban environments using optimization loads as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology of systems ecology.

Keywords: Spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology.

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4426 Impact on Course Registration and SGPA of the Students of BSc in EEE Programme due to Online Teaching during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Muhibul Haque Bhuyan

Abstract:

Most educational institutions were compelled to switch over to the online mode of teaching, learning, and assessment due to the lockdown when the corona pandemic started around the globe in the early part of the year 2020. However, they faced a unique set of challenges in delivering knowledge and skills to their students as well as formulating a proper assessment policy. This paper investigates whether there is an impact on the student Semester Grade Point Average (SGPA) due to the online mode of teaching and learning assessment at the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE) of Southeast University (SEU). Details of student assessments are discussed. Then students’ grades were analyzed to find out the impact on SGPA based on the z-test by finding the standard deviation (). It also pointed out the challenges associated with the online classes and assessment strategies to be adopted during the online assessment. The student admission, course advising, and registration statistics were also presented in several tables and analyzed based on the change in percentage to observe the impact on it due to the pandemic. In summary, it was observed that the students’ SGPAs are not affected but student course advising and registration were affected slightly by the pandemic. Finally, the paper provides some recommendations to improve the online teaching, learning, assessment, and evaluation system.

Keywords: electrical and electronic engineering students, impact on course grading and SGPA, online assessment, online teaching, student registration, semester result

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4425 Numerical Calculation of Heat Transfer in Water Heater

Authors: Michal Spilacek, Martin Lisy, Marek Balas, Zdenek Skala

Abstract:

This article is trying to determine the status of flue gas that is entering the KWH heat exchanger from combustion chamber in order to calculate the heat transfer ratio of the heat exchanger. Combination of measurement, calculation and computer simulation was used to create a useful way to approximate the heat transfer rate. The measurements were taken by a number of sensors that are mounted on the experimental device and by a thermal imaging camera. The results of the numerical calculation are in a good correspondence with the real power output of the experimental device. That result shows that the research has a good direction and can be used to propose changes in the construction of the heat exchanger, but still needs enhancements.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, heat transfer rate, numerical calculation, thermal images.

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4424 Risk Management in Islamic Banks: A Case Study of the Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt

Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

Abstract:

This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: Conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management.

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4423 Biomechanical Properties of Hen's Eggshell: Experimental Study and Numerical Modeling

Authors: A. Darvizeh, H. Rajabi, S. Fatahtooei Nejad, A. Khaheshi, P. Haghdoust

Abstract:

In this article, biomechanical aspects of hen-s eggshell as a natural ceramic structure are studied. The images, taken by a scanning electron microscope (SEM), are used to investigate the microscopic aspects of the egg. It is observed that eggshell has a three-layered microstructure with different morphological and structural characteristics. Studies on the eggshell membrane (ESM) as a prosperous tissue suggest that it is placed to prevent the penetration of microorganisms into the egg. Finally, numerical models of the egg are presented to study the stress distribution and its deformation under different loading conditions. The effects of two different types of loading (hydrostatic and point loadings) on two different shell models (with constant and variable thicknesses) are investigated in detail.

Keywords: Eggshell, biomechanical properties, Scanning electron microscope, Numerical Modeling.

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4422 Empirical Analytical Modelling of Average Bond Stress and Anchorage of Tensile Bars in Reinforced Concrete

Authors: Maruful H. Mazumder, Raymond I. Gilbert

Abstract:

The design specifications for calculating development and lapped splice lengths of reinforcement in concrete are derived from a conventional empirical modelling approach that correlates experimental test data using a single mathematical equation. This paper describes part of a recently completed experimental research program to assess the effects of different structural parameters on the development length requirements of modern high strength steel reinforcing bars, including the case of lapped splices in large-scale reinforced concrete members. The normalized average bond stresses for the different variations of anchorage lengths are assessed according to the general form of a typical empirical analytical model of bond and anchorage. Improved analytical modelling equations are developed in the paper that better correlate the normalized bond strength parameters with the structural parameters of an empirical model of bond and anchorage.

Keywords: Bond stress, Development length, Lapped splice length, Reinforced concrete.

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4421 Numerical Analysis of Laminar to Turbulent Transition on the DU91-W2-250 Airfoil

Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, G. Grandi, E. Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a study of laminar to turbulent transition on a profile specifically designed for wind turbine blades, the DU91-W2-250, which belongs to a class of wind turbine dedicated airfoils, developed by Delft University of Technology. A comparison between the experimental behavior of the airfoil studied at Delft wind tunnel and the numerical predictions of the commercial CFD solver ANSYS FLUENT® has been performed. The prediction capabilities of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and of the γ-θ Transitional model have been tested. A sensitivity analysis of the numerical results to the spatial domain discretization has also been performed using four different computational grids, which have been created using the mesher GAMBIT®. The comparison between experimental measurements and CFD results have allowed to determine the importance of the numerical prediction of the laminar to turbulent transition, in order not to overestimate airfoil friction drag due to a fully turbulent-regime flow computation.

Keywords: CFD, wind turbine, DU91-W2-250, laminar to turbulent transition.

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