Search results for: proposed module

Authors: Wang Qian, Bian Cheng Xiang

Abstract:

In recent years, with the improvement of China's urbanization level, the number of urban motor vehicles has grown rapidly. As residents' daily commuting necessities, cars cause a lot of exhaust emissions and urban traffic congestion. In the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" of China, it is proposed to strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Urban transport accounts for a high proportion of carbon emission sources. It is an important driving force for the realization of China's carbon peak strategy. Some cities have introduced and implemented the policy of "car restriction" to solve the related urban problems by reducing the use of cars. This paper analyzes the implementation of the "automobile restriction" policy, evaluates the relevant effects of the automobile restriction policy, and discusses how to better optimize the "automobile restriction" policy in the process of urban governance.

Keywords: Carbon emission, traffic jam, vehicle restriction, policy evaluation.

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Authors: Norazah Mohd Suki, T Ramayah

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e-Government structures permits the government to operate in a more transparent and accountable manner of which it increases the power of the individual in relation to that of the government. This paper identifies the factors that determine customer-s attitude towards e-Government services using a theoretical model based on the Technology Acceptance Model. Data relating to the constructs were collected from 200 respondents. The research model was tested using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) techniques via the Analysis of Moment Structure (AMOS 16) computer software. SEM is a comprehensive approach to testing hypotheses about relations among observed and latent variables. The proposed model fits the data well. The results demonstrated that e- Government services acceptance can be explained in terms of compatibility and attitude towards e-Government services. The setup of the e-Government services will be compatible with the way users work and are more likely to adopt e-Government services owing to their familiarity with the Internet for various official, personal, and recreational uses. In addition, managerial implications for government policy makers, government agencies, and system developers are also discussed.

Keywords: E-government, structural equation modelling, attitude, service.

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Authors: Wang Lin, Li Zhiqiang

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the cooperative learning behavior pattern based on the data of students' movement. The study firstly reviewed the cooperative learning theory and its research status, and briefly introduced the k-means clustering algorithm. Then, it used clustering algorithm and mathematical statistics theory to analyze the activity rhythm of individual student and groups in different functional areas, according to the movement data provided by 10 first-year graduate students. It also focused on the analysis of students' behavior in the learning area and explored the law of cooperative learning behavior. The research result showed that the cooperative learning behavior analysis method based on movement data proposed in this paper is feasible. From the results of data analysis, the characteristics of behavior of students and their cooperative learning behavior patterns could be found.

Keywords: Behavior pattern, cooperative learning, data analyze, K-means clustering algorithm.

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Authors: Jun Wan, Zehua Chen, Yingwu Chen, Zhidong Bai

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Classification is an interesting problem in functional data analysis (FDA), because many science and application problems end up with classification problems, such as recognition, prediction, control, decision making, management, etc. As the high dimension and high correlation in functional data (FD), it is a key problem to extract features from FD whereas keeping its global characters, which relates to the classification efficiency and precision to heavens. In this paper, a novel automatic method which combined Genetic Algorithm (GA) and classification algorithm to extract classification features is proposed. In this method, the optimal features and classification model are approached via evolutional study step by step. It is proved by theory analysis and experiment test that this method has advantages in improving classification efficiency, precision and robustness whereas using less features and the dimension of extracted classification features can be controlled.

Keywords: Classification, functional data, feature extraction, genetic algorithm, wavelet.

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Authors: Gurju Awgichew, G. Radhakrishnamacharya

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Steady incompressible couple stress fluid flow through two dimensional symmetric channel with stenosis is investigated. The flow consisting of a core region to be a couple stress fluid and a peripheral layer of plasma (Newtonian fluid). Assuming the stenosis to be mild, the equations governing the flow of the proposed model are solved using the slip boundary condition and closed form expressions for the flow characteristics (the dimensionless resistance to flow and wall shear stress at the maximum height of stenosis) are derived. The effects of various parameters on these flow variables have been studied. It is observed that the resistance to flow as well as the wall shear stress increase with the height of stenosis, viscosity ratio and Darcy number. However, the trend is reversed as the slip and the couple stress parameter increase.

Keywords: Stenosis, Couple stress fluid, Slip condition, Peripheral layer.

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Authors: Kechida Ahmed, Drai Redouane, Khelil Mohamed

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In this paper we present a new approach to detecting a flaw in T.O.F.D (Time Of Flight Diffraction) type ultrasonic image based on texture features. Texture is one of the most important features used in recognizing patterns in an image. The paper describes texture features based on 2D Gabor functions, i.e., Gaussian shaped band-pass filters, with dyadic treatment of the radial spatial frequency range and multiple orientations, which represent an appropriate choice for tasks requiring simultaneous measurement in both space and frequency domains. The most relevant features are used as input data on a Fuzzy c-mean clustering classifier. The classes that exist are only two: 'defects' or 'no defects'. The proposed approach is tested on the T.O.F.D image achieved at the laboratory and on the industrial field.

Keywords: 2D Gabor Functions, flaw detection, fuzzy c-mean clustering, non destructive testing, texture analysis, T.O.F.D Image (Time of Flight Diffraction).

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Authors: Neamat El Gayar

Abstract:

Learning using labeled and unlabelled data has received considerable amount of attention in the machine learning community due its potential in reducing the need for expensive labeled data. In this work we present a new method for combining labeled and unlabeled data based on classifier ensembles. The model we propose assumes each classifier in the ensemble observes the input using different set of features. Classifiers are initially trained using some labeled samples. The trained classifiers learn further through labeling the unknown patterns using a teaching signals that is generated using the decision of the classifier ensemble, i.e. the classifiers self-supervise each other. Experiments on a set of object images are presented. Our experiments investigate different classifier models, different fusing techniques, different training sizes and different input features. Experimental results reveal that the proposed self-supervised ensemble learning approach reduces classification error over the single classifier and the traditional ensemble classifier approachs.

Keywords: Multiple Classifier Systems, classifier ensembles, learning using labeled and unlabelled data, K-nearest neighbor classifier, Bayes classifier.

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Authors: Hafizullah A. Hashim, Aniza. A

Abstract:

The Spiral development model has been used successfully in many commercial systems and in a good number of defense systems. This is due to the fact that cost-effective incremental commitment of funds, via an analogy of the spiral model to stud poker and also can be used to develop hardware or integrate software, hardware, and systems. To support adaptive, semantic collaboration between domain experts and knowledge engineers, a new knowledge engineering process, called Spiral_OWL is proposed. This model is based on the idea of iterative refinement, annotation and structuring of knowledge base. The Spiral_OWL model is generated base on spiral model and knowledge engineering methodology. A central paradigm for Spiral_OWL model is the concentration on risk-driven determination of knowledge engineering process. The collaboration aspect comes into play during knowledge acquisition and knowledge validation phase. Design rationales for the Spiral_OWL model are to be easy-to-implement, well-organized, and iterative development cycle as an expanding spiral.

Keywords: Domain Expert, Knowledge Base, Ontology, Software Process.

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Authors: Il Young Song, Du Yong Kim, Vladimir Shin

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This paper reports on a receding horizon filtering for mobile robot systems with cross-correlated sensor noises and uncertainties. Also, the effect of uncertain parameters in the state of the tracking error model performance is considered. A distributed fusion receding horizon filter is proposed. The distributed fusion filtering algorithm represents the optimal linear combination of the local filters under the minimum mean square error criterion. The derivation of the error cross-covariances between the local receding horizon filters is the key of this paper. Simulation results of the tracking mobile robot-s motion demonstrate high accuracy and computational efficiency of the distributed fusion receding horizon filter.

Keywords: Distributed fusion, fusion formula, Kalman filter, multisensor, receding horizon, wheeled mobile robot

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Authors: M. Zerikat, S. Chekroun

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This paper proposes an effective algorithm approach to hybrid control systems combining fuzzy logic and conventional control techniques of controlling the speed of induction motor assumed to operate in high-performance drives environment. The introducing of fuzzy logic in the control systems helps to achieve good dynamical response, disturbance rejection and low sensibility to parameter variations and external influences. Some fundamentals of the fuzzy logic control are preliminary illustrated. The developed control algorithm is robust, efficient and simple. It also assures precise trajectory tracking with the prescribed dynamics. Experimental results have shown excellent tracking performance of the proposed control system, and have convincingly demonstrated the validity and the usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy controller in high-performance drives with parameter and load uncertainties. Satisfactory performance was observed for most reference tracks.

Keywords: Fuzzy controller, high-performance, inductionmotor, intelligent control, robustness.

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Authors: Arellano Karina, Diego Avila-Pesántez, Leticia Vaca-Cárdenas, Alberto Arellano, Carmen Mantilla

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Nowadays, security threats in Voice over IP (VoIP) systems are an essential and latent concern for people in charge of security in a corporate network, because, every day, new Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks are developed. These affect the business continuity of an organization, regarding confidentiality, availability, and integrity of services, causing frequent losses of both information and money. The purpose of this study is to establish the necessary measures to mitigate DoS threats, which affect the availability of VoIP systems, based on the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). A Security Model called MS-DoS-SIP is proposed, which is based on two approaches. The first one analyzes the recommendations of international security standards. The second approach takes into account weaknesses and threats. The implementation of this model in a VoIP simulated system allowed to minimize the present vulnerabilities in 92% and increase the availability time of the VoIP service into an organization.

Keywords: Denial-of-service SIP attacks, MS-DoS-SIP, security model, VoIP-SIP vulnerabilities.

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Authors: T. Chandrasekhar, K. Thangavel, E. N. Sathishkumar

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Microarrays are made it possible to simultaneously monitor the expression profiles of thousands of genes under various experimental conditions. It is used to identify the co-expressed genes in specific cells or tissues that are actively used to make proteins. This method is used to analysis the gene expression, an important task in bioinformatics research. Cluster analysis of gene expression data has proved to be a useful tool for identifying co-expressed genes, biologically relevant groupings of genes and samples. In this work K-Means algorithms has been applied for clustering of Gene Expression Data. Further, rough set based Quick reduct algorithm has been applied for each cluster in order to select the most similar genes having high correlation. Then the ACV measure is used to evaluate the refined clusters and classification is used to evaluate the proposed method. They could identify compact clusters with feature selection method used to genes are selected.

Keywords: Clustering, Feature selection, Gene expression data, Quick reduct.

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Authors: Shogo Kato, Daisuke Okamoto, Satoko Tsuru, Yoshinori Iizuka, Ryoko Shimono

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Healthcare safety has been perceived important. It is essential to prevent troubles in healthcare processes for healthcare safety. Trouble prevention is based on trouble prediction using accumulated knowledge on processes, troubles, and countermeasures. However, information on troubles has not been accumulated in hospitals in the appropriate structure, and it has not been utilized effectively to prevent troubles. In the previous study, however a detailed knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction was proposed, the knowledgebase for countermeasures was not involved. In this paper, we aim to propose the structure of the knowledgebase for countermeasures, in the knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction in healthcare process. We first design the structure of countermeasures and propose the knowledge representation form on countermeasures. Then, we evaluate the validity of the proposal, by applying it into an actual hospital.

Keywords: Trouble prevention, knowledge structure, structured knowledge, reusable knowledge.

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Authors: A. A. Jafari, A. M. Khoshnood, J. Roshanian

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Attitude control of aerospace system with liquid containers may face to a problem associate with fuel sloshing. The sloshing phenomena can degrade the stability of control system and in the worst case, interaction between the attitude control system and fuel vibration leading to resonance. In this paper, a full process of nonlinear dynamic modeling of an aerospace launch vehicle with fuel sloshing is given. Then, a new control system based on model reference adaptive filter is proposed and its algorithm is extracted. This controller implemented on the main attitude control system. Finally, numerical simulation of nonlinear model and control system is carried out to examine the performance of the new controller. Results of simulations show that the inconvenient effects of the fuel sloshing by augmenting this control system are reduced and attitude control system performs, satisfactorily.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic modeling, fuel sloshing, vibration control, model reference, adaptive filter

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Authors: Shu-Ning Liou

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study was to establish Professional Competency Contents for International Marketer in Taiwan. To establish these contents a set of interviews with international marketing managers and three rounds of Delphi Technique surveys were employed. Five international marketing managers were interviewed for discussions on definitions, framework, and items of international marketing competency. A questionnaire for the " Delphi Technique Survey " was developed based on the results acquired from the interviews. The resulting questionnaire was distributed to another group of 30 international marketer of trading companies in Taiwan. After three rounds of Delphi Technique Survey with these participants, the "Contents of Professional Competency for International Marketer " was established. Five dimensions and thirty indicators were identified. It is hoped that the proposed contents could be served as a self-evaluation tool for international marketer as well as the basis for staffing and training programs for international marketer in Taiwan.

Keywords: Professional competency, International marketer, Delphi technique

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Authors: Purnomo Yustianto, Robin Doss

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As a process of developing a service system, the term ‘service engineering’ evolves in scope and definition. To achieve an integrated understanding of the process, a general framework and an ontology are required. This paper extends a previously built service engineering framework by exploring metamodels for the framework artefacts based on a foundational ontology and a metamodel landscape. The first part of this paper presents a correlation map between the proposed framework with the ontology as a form of evaluation for the conceptual coverage of the framework. The mapping also serves to characterize the artefacts to be produced for each activity in the framework. The second part describes potential metamodels to be used, from the metamodel landscape, as alternative formats of the framework artefacts. The results suggest that the framework sufficiently covers the ontological concepts, both from general service context and software service context. The metamodel exploration enriches the suggested artefact format from the original eighteen formats to thirty metamodel alternatives.

Keywords: Artefact, framework, service, metamodel.

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Authors: Tarek M. Mahmoud

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Selecting the routes and the assignment of link flow in a computer communication networks are extremely complex combinatorial optimization problems. Metaheuristics, such as genetic or simulated annealing algorithms, are widely applicable heuristic optimization strategies that have shown encouraging results for a large number of difficult combinatorial optimization problems. This paper considers the route selection and hence the flow assignment problem. A genetic algorithm and simulated annealing algorithm are used to solve this problem. A new hybrid algorithm combining the genetic with the simulated annealing algorithm is introduced. A modification of the genetic algorithm is also introduced. Computational experiments with sample networks are reported. The results show that the proposed modified genetic algorithm is efficient in finding good solutions of the flow assignment problem compared with other techniques.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Flow Assignment, Routing, Computer network, Simulated Annealing.

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Authors: Omer Mahmood, Selvakennedy Selvadurai

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“Web of Trust" is one of the recognized goals for Web 2.0. It aims to make it possible for the people to take responsibility for what they publish on the web, including organizations, businesses and individual users. These objectives, among others, drive most of the technologies and protocols recently standardized by the governing bodies. One of the great advantages of Web infrastructure is decentralization of publication. The primary motivation behind Web 2.0 is to assist the people to add contents for Collective Intelligence (CI) while providing mechanisms to link content with people for evaluations and accountability of information. Such structure of contents will interconnect users and contents so that users can use contents to find participants and vice versa. This paper proposes conceptual information storage and linking model, based on decentralized information structure, that links contents and people together. The model uses FOAF, Atom, RDF and RDFS and can be used as a blueprint to develop Web 2.0 applications for any e-domain. However, primary target for this paper is online trust evaluation domain. The proposed model targets to assist the individuals to establish “Web of Trust" in online trust domain.

Keywords: Web of Trust, Semantic Web, Electronic SocialNetworks, Information Management

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Authors: Vedat Coskun, Fahri Soylemezgiller, Busra Ozdenizci, Kerem Ok

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In recent years, several smart card solutions for transportation services of cities with different technical infrastructures and business models has emerged considerably, which triggers new business and technical opportunities. In order to create a unique system, we present a novel, promising system called Multifunctional City Smart Card System to be used in all cities that provides transportation and loyalty services based on the MasterCard M/Chip Advance standards. The proposed system provides a unique solution for transportation services of large cities over the world, aiming to answer all transportation needs of citizens. In this paper, development of the Multifunctional City Smart Card system and system requirements are briefly described. Moreover, performance analysis results of M/Chip Advance Compatible Validators which is the system's most important component are presented.

Keywords: Smart Card, M/Chip Advance Standard, City Transportation, Performance Analysis.

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Authors: Suman Kumar Saha, Rajib Kar, Durbadal Mandal, S. P. Ghoshal

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This paper demonstrates the application of craziness based particle swarm optimization (CRPSO) technique for designing the 8th order low pass Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter. CRPSO, the much improved version of PSO, is a population based global heuristic search algorithm which finds near optimal solution in terms of a set of filter coefficients. Effectiveness of this algorithm is justified with a comparative study of some well established algorithms, namely, real coded genetic algorithm (RGA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Simulation results affirm that the proposed algorithm CRPSO, outperforms over its counterparts not only in terms of quality output i.e. sharpness at cut-off, pass band ripple, stop band ripple, and stop band attenuation but also in convergence speed with assured stability.

Keywords: IIR Filter, RGA, PSO, CRPSO, Evolutionary Optimization Techniques, Low Pass (LP) Filter, Magnitude Response, Pole-Zero Plot, Stability.

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Authors: Shu-Lu Hsu, Fang-Yi Chu

Abstract:

With the advances in information and communications technology, mobile context-aware applications have become powerful marketing tools. In Apple online store, there are numerous mobile applications (APPs) developed for destination tour. This study investigated the determinants of adoption of context-aware APPs for destination tour services. A model is proposed based on Technology Acceptance Model and privacy concern theory. The model was empirically tested based on a sample of 259 users of a tourism APP published by Kaohsiung Tourism Bureau, Taiwan. The results showed that the fitness of the model is well and, among all the factors, the perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use have the most significant influences on the intention to adopt context-aware destination APPs. Finally, contrary to the findings of previous literature, the effect of privacy concern on the adoption intention of context-aware APP is insignificant.

Keywords: Mobile Application, Context-Aware, Privacy Concern, TAM.

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Authors: Zalizah Awang Long, Abdul Razak Hamdan, Azuraliza Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Public health surveillance system focuses on outbreak detection and data sources used. Variation or aberration in the frequency distribution of health data, compared to historical data is often used to detect outbreaks. It is important that new techniques be developed to improve the detection rate, thereby reducing wastage of resources in public health. Thus, the objective is to developed technique by applying frequent mining and outlier mining techniques in outbreak detection. 14 datasets from the UCI were tested on the proposed technique. The performance of the effectiveness for each technique was measured by t-test. The overall performance shows that DTK can be used to detect outlier within frequent dataset. In conclusion the outbreak detection technique using anomaly-based on frequent-outlier technique can be used to identify the outlier within frequent dataset.

Keywords: Outlier detection, frequent-outlier, outbreak, anomaly, surveillance, public health

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Authors: Mohammadreza Razzazi, Maryam Bayat

Abstract:

Selection of the best possible set of suppliers has a significant impact on the overall profitability and success of any business. For this reason, it is usually necessary to optimize all business processes and to make use of cost-effective alternatives for additional savings. This paper proposes a new efficient context-aware supplier selection model that takes into account possible changes of the environment while significantly reducing selection costs. The proposed model is based on data clustering techniques while inspiring certain principles of online algorithms for an optimally selection of suppliers. Unlike common selection models which re-run the selection algorithm from the scratch-line for any decision-making sub-period on the whole environment, our model considers the changes only and superimposes it to the previously defined best set of suppliers to obtain a new best set of suppliers. Therefore, any recomputation of unchanged elements of the environment is avoided and selection costs are consequently reduced significantly. A numerical evaluation confirms applicability of this model and proves that it is a more optimal solution compared with common static selection models in this field.

Keywords: Supplier Selection, Context-Awareness, OnlineAlgorithms, Data Clustering.

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Authors: C.Kia, M.R.Arshad, A.H.Adom, P.A.Wilson

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This paper presents recent work on the improvement of the robotics vision based control strategy for underwater pipeline tracking system. The study focuses on developing image processing algorithms and a fuzzy inference system for the analysis of the terrain. The main goal is to implement the supervisory fuzzy learning control technique to reduce the errors on navigation decision due to the pipeline occlusion problem. The system developed is capable of interpreting underwater images containing occluded pipeline, seabed and other unwanted noise. The algorithm proposed in previous work does not explore the cooperation between fuzzy controllers, knowledge and learnt data to improve the outputs for underwater pipeline tracking. Computer simulations and prototype simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach. The system accuracy level has also been discussed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Underwater target tracking, Autonomous underwater vehicles, Artificial intelligence, Simulations, Robot navigation, Vision system.

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Authors: An Chen, Huilin Ye

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Mining sequential patterns from large customer transaction databases has been recognized as a key research topic in database systems. However, the previous works more focused on mining sequential patterns at a single concept level. In this study, we introduced concept hierarchies into this problem and present several algorithms for discovering multiple-level sequential patterns based on the hierarchies. An experiment was conducted to assess the performance of the proposed algorithms. The performances of the algorithms were measured by the relative time spent on completing the mining tasks on two different datasets. The experimental results showed that the performance depends on the characteristics of the datasets and the pre-defined threshold of minimal support for each level of the concept hierarchy. Based on the experimental results, some suggestions were also given for how to select appropriate algorithm for a certain datasets.

Keywords: Data Mining, Multiple-Level Sequential Pattern, Concept Hierarchy, Customer Transaction Database.

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Authors: N. A. Ibrahim, A. Kudus, I. Daud, M. R. Abu Bakar

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Competing risks survival data that comprises of more than one type of event has been used in many applications, and one of these is in clinical study (e.g. in breast cancer study). The decision tree method can be extended to competing risks survival data by modifying the split function so as to accommodate two or more risks which might be dependent on each other. Recently, researchers have constructed some decision trees for recurrent survival time data using frailty and marginal modelling. We further extended the method for the case of competing risks. In this paper, we developed the decision tree method for competing risks survival time data based on proportional hazards for subdistribution of competing risks. In particular, we grow a tree by using deviance statistic. The application of breast cancer data is presented. Finally, to investigate the performance of the proposed method, simulation studies on identification of true group of observations were executed.

Keywords: Competing risks, Decision tree, Simulation, Subdistribution Proportional Hazard.

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Authors: Lv Wei-feng, Dai Xi, Zhu Tong-yu

Abstract:

Dynamic location referencing method is an important technology to shield map differences. These method references objects of the road network by utilizing condensed selection of its real-world geographic properties stored in a digital map database, which overcomes the defections existing in pre-coded location referencing methods. The high attributes completeness requirements and complicated reference point selection algorithm are the main problems of recent researches. Therefore, a dynamic location referencing algorithm combining intersection points selected at the extremities compulsively and road link points selected according to link partition principle was proposed. An experimental system based on this theory was implemented. The tests using Beijing digital map database showed satisfied results and thus verified the feasibility and practicability of this method.

Keywords: Dynamic location referencing, inter-sectionreferencing, road link partition, road link point referencing.

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Authors: Namchul Do, Gyeongseok Chae

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This paper proposes a framework for product development including hardware and software components. It provides separation of hardware dependent software, modifications of current product development process, and integration of software modules with existing product configuration models and assembly product structures. In order to decide the dependent software, the framework considers product configuration modules and engineering changes of associated software and hardware components. In order to support efficient integration of the two different hardware and software development, a modified product development process is proposed. The process integrates the dependent software development into product development through the interchanges of specific product information. By using existing product data models in Product Data Management (PDM), the framework represents software as modules for product configurations and software parts for product structure. The framework is applied to development of a robot system in order to show its effectiveness.

Keywords: HW and SW Development Integration, ProductDevelopment with Software.

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Authors: N. Jinesh, K. Shankar

Abstract:

This article presents a method of using the one dimensional piezo-electric patch on beam model for structural identification. A hybrid element constituted of one dimensional beam element and a PZT sensor is used with reduced material properties. This model is convenient and simple for identification of beams. Accuracy of this element is first verified against a corresponding 3D finite element model (FEM). The structural identification is carried out as an inverse problem whereby parameters are identified by minimizing the deviation between the predicted and measured voltage response of the patch, when subjected to excitation. A non-classical optimization algorithm Particle Swarm Optimization is used to minimize this objective function. The signals are polluted with 5% Gaussian noise to simulate experimental noise. The proposed method is applied on beam structure and identified parameters are stiffness and damping. The model is also validated experimentally.

Keywords: Structural identification, PZT patches, inverse problem, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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