Search results for: regression curves

Authors: Ilze Beitane, Inga Ciprovica

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The influence of lactulose and inulin on rheological properties of fermented milk during storage was studied.Pasteurized milk, freeze-dried starter culture Bb-12 (Bifidobacterium lactis, Chr. Hansen, Denmark), inulin – RAFTILINE®HP (ORAFI, Belgium) and syrup of lactulose (Duphalac®, the Netherlands) were used for experiments. The fermentation process was realized at 37 oC for 16 hours and the storage of products was provided at 4 oC for 7 days. Measurements were carried out by BROOKFIELD standard methods and the flow curves were described by Herschel-Bulkley model. The results of dispersion analysis have shown that both the concentration of prebiotics (p=0.04<0.05) and shelf life (p=0.003<0.05) have a significant influence on the apparent viscosity of the product.

Keywords: Apparent viscosity, B.lactis, consistency coefficient, flow behavior index, prebiotics.

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Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: Audit fee, heteroscedasticity, Lagrange multiplier test, periodicity.

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Authors: Amin Almasi

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Analysis of reciprocating equipment piston rod leads to nonlinear elastic-plastic deformation analysis of rod with initial imperfection under axial dynamic load. In this paper a new and effective model and analytical formulations are presented to evaluate dynamic deformation and elastic-plastic stresses of reciprocating machine piston rod. This new method has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, elastic-plastic deformation and dynamic effects. Proposed method can be used for evaluation of piston rod performance for various reciprocating machines under different operation situations. Rod load curves and maximum allowable rod load are calculated with presented method for a refinery type reciprocating compressor. Useful recommendations and guidelines for rod load, rod load reversal and rod drop monitoring are also addressed.

Keywords: Deformation, Reciprocating Equipment, Rod.

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Xin Zhao, Yi-Fan Zhu, Xin-Jian Zhang

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Kernel function, which allows the formulation of nonlinear variants of any algorithm that can be cast in terms of dot products, makes the Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been successfully applied in many fields, e.g. classification and regression. The importance of kernel has motivated many studies on its composition. It-s well-known that reproducing kernel (R.K) is a useful kernel function which possesses many properties, e.g. positive definiteness, reproducing property and composing complex R.K by simple operation. There are two popular ways to compute the R.K with explicit form. One is to construct and solve a specific differential equation with boundary value whose handicap is incapable of obtaining a unified form of R.K. The other is using a piecewise integral of the Green function associated with a differential operator L. The latter benefits the computation of a R.K with a unified explicit form and theoretical analysis, whereas there are relatively later studies and fewer practical computations. In this paper, a new algorithm for computing a R.K is presented. It can obtain the unified explicit form of R.K in general reproducing kernel Hilbert space. It avoids constructing and solving the complex differential equations manually and benefits an automatic, flexible and rigorous computation for more general RKHS. In order to validate that the R.K computed by the algorithm can be used in SVM well, some illustrative examples and a comparison between R.K and Gaussian kernel (RBF) in support vector regression are presented. The result shows that the performance of R.K is close or slightly superior to that of RBF.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, Green function, support vectorregression

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Authors: Melby Chacko, Jagannath Nayak

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The aging behaviour of 6061 Al-15 vol% SiC composite was investigated using Rockwell B hardness measurement. The composite was solutionized at 350°C and quenched in water. The composite was aged at room temperature (T4 treatment) and also at 140°C, 160°C, 180°C and 200°C (T6 treatment). The natural and artificial aging behaviour of composite was studied using aging curves determined at different temperatures. The aging period for peak aging for different temperatures was identified. The time required for attaining peak aging decreased with increase in the aging temperature. The peak hardness was found to increase with increase with aging temperature and the highest peak hardness was observed at 180ºC. Beyond 180ºC the peak hardness was found to be decreasing.

Keywords: 6061 Al-SiC composite, Aging curve, Rockwell B hardness, T4, T6 treatments.

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

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Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate. However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned. The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation and induce competition in the entire financial sector.

Keywords: Commercial bank, fixed fund deposit, fluctuation effects, interest rate.

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Authors: Rami A. Maher, Ibraheem K. Ibraheem

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This work presents a comparison study between the state-space and polynomial methods for the design of the robust governor for load frequency control of steam turbine power systems. The robust governor is synthesized using the two approaches and the comparison is extended to include time and frequency domains performance, controller order, and uncertainty representation, weighting filters, optimality and sub-optimality. The obtained results are represented through tables and curves with reasons of similarities and dissimilarities.

Keywords: Robust control, load frequency control, steam turbine, H∞-norm, system uncertainty, load disturbance.

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Authors: Seong-Pil Kang, Ho-Jung Ryu, Yongwon Seo

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Hydrate phase equilibria for the binary CO2+water and CH4+water mixtures in silica gel pore of nominal diameters 6, 30, and 100 nm were measured and compared with the calculated results based on van der Waals and Platteeuw model. At a specific temperature, three-phase hydrate-water-vapor (HLV) equilibrium curves for pore hydrates were shifted to the higher-pressure condition depending on pore sizes when compared with those of bulk hydrates. Notably, hydrate phase equilibria for the case of 100 nominal nm pore size were nearly identical with those of bulk hydrates. The activities of water in porous silica gels were modified to account for capillary effect, and the calculation results were generally in good agreement with the experimental data. The structural characteristics of gas hydrates in silica gel pores were investigated through NMR spectroscopy.

Keywords: CO2, CH4, gas hydrate, equilibria.

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Authors: Mohamed Shawki Elamir, Heinrich Gotzig, Raoul Zoellner, Patrick Maeder

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In this work, a methodology is presented for identifying the optimal digitization parameters for the analog signal of ultrasonic sensors. These digitization parameters are the resolution of the analog to digital conversion and the sampling rate. This is accomplished though the derivation of characteristic curves based on Fano inequality and the calculation of the mutual information content over a given dataset. The mutual information is calculated between the examples in the dataset and the corresponding variation in the feature that needs to be estimated. The optimal parameters are identified in a manner that ensures optimal estimation performance while preventing inefficiency in using unnecessarily powerful analog to digital converters.

Keywords: Analog to digital conversion, digitization, sampling rate, ultrasonic sensors.

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Authors: Dogan Ciloglu, Abdurrahim Bolukbasi, Harun Cifci

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In this study, the experiments were carried out to determine the best coolant for the quenching process among waterbased silica, alumina, titania and copper oxide nanofluids (0.1 vol%). A sphere made up off brass material was used in the experiments. When the spherical test specimen was heated at high temperatures, it was suddenly immersed into the nanofluids. All experiments were carried out at saturated conditions and under atmospheric pressure. After the experiments, the cooling curves were obtained by using the temperature-time data of the specimen. The experimental results showed that the cooling performance of test specimen depended on the type of nanofluids. The silica nanoparticles enhanced the performance of boiling heat transfer and it is the best coolant for the quenching among other nanoparticles.

Keywords: Heat transfer, nanofluid, pool boiling, quenching.

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: Hassan Azarkish, Said Farahat, S.Masoud H. Sarvari

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In the present work, the performance of the particle swarm optimization and the genetic algorithm compared as a typical geometry design problem. The design maximizes the heat transfer rate from a given fin volume. The analysis presumes that a linear temperature distribution along the fin. The fin profile generated using the B-spline curves and controlled by the change of control point coordinates. An inverse method applied to find the appropriate fin geometry yield the linear temperature distribution along the fin corresponds to optimum design. The numbers of the populations, the count of iterations and time to convergence measure efficiency. Results show that the particle swarm optimization is most efficient for geometry optimization.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Geometry Optimization, longitudinal Fin, Particle Swarm Optimization

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Authors: A. Hossain, M. A. Gafur, F. Gulshan, A. S. W. Kurny

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Al-Si-Mg-Ni(-Cu) alloys are widely used in the automotive industry. They have the advantage of low weight associated with low coefficient of thermal expansion and excellent mechanical properties – mainly at high temperatures. The corrosion resistance of these alloys in coastal area, particularly sea water, however is not yet known. In this investigation, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and potentiodynamic polarization have been used to evaluate the corrosion resistance of Al-6Si-0.5Mg-2Ni (-2Cu) alloys in simulated sea water environments. The potentiodynamic polarization curves reveal that 2 wt% Cu content alloy (Alloy-2) is more prone to corrosion than the Cu free alloy (Alloy-1). But the EIS test results showed that corrosion resistance or charge transfer resistance (Rct) increases with the addition of Cu. Due to addition of Cu and thermal treatment, the magnitude of open circuit potential (OCP), corrosion potential (Ecorr) and pitting corrosion potential (Epit) of Al-6Si-0.5Mg-2Ni alloy in NaCl solution were shifted to the more noble direction.

Keywords: Al-Si alloy, potentiodynamic polarization, EIS, SEM.

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Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

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To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: Goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression.

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Authors: L. Sriphong, A. Chaidedgumjorn, K. Chaisuroj

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A spectrophotometric method was developed for simultaneous quantification of pseudoephedrine hydrochloride (PSE) triprolidine hydrochloride (TRI) using second derivative method (zero-crossing technique). The second derivative amplitudes of PSE and TRI were measured at 271 and 321 nm, respectively. The calibration curves were linear in the range of 200 to 1,000 g/ml for PSE and 10 to 50 g/ml for TRI. The method was validated for specificity, accuracy, precision, limit of detection and limit of quantitation. The proposed method was applied to the assaying and dissolution of PSE and TRI in commercial tablets without any chemical separation. The results were compared with those obtained by the official USP31 method and statistical tests showed that there is no significant between the methods at 95% confidence level. The proposed method is simple, rapid and suitable for the routine quality control application. KeywordsTriprolidine, Pseudoephedrine, Derivative spectrophotometry, Dissolution testing.

Keywords: Triprolidine, Pseudoephedrine, Derivative spectrophotometry, Dissolution testing.

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

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Authors: S. Shirazian, M.R. Ghayamghamian, G.R. Nouri

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Bridges are one of the main components of transportation networks. They should be functional before and after earthquake for emergency services. Therefore we need to assess seismic performance of bridges under different seismic loadings. Fragility curve is one of the popular tools in seismic evaluations. The fragility curves are conditional probability statements, which give the probability of a bridge reaching or exceeding a particular damage level for a given intensity level. In this study, the seismic performance of a two-span simply supported concrete bridge is assessed. Due to usual lack of empirical data, the analytical fragility curve was developed by results of the dynamic analysis of bridge subjected to the different time histories in near-fault area.

Keywords: Fragility curve, Seismic behavior, Time historyanalysis, Transportation Network.

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Authors: Alexander Kaplunovsky, Vladimir Khailenko, Alexander Bolshoy, Shara Atambayeva, AnatoliyIvashchenko

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Eukaryotic protein-coding genes are interrupted by spliceosomal introns, which are removed from the RNA transcripts before translation into a protein. The exon-intron structures of different eukaryotic species are quite different from each other, and the evolution of such structures raises many questions. We try to address some of these questions using statistical analysis of whole genomes. We go through all the protein-coding genes in a genome and study correlations between the net length of all the exons in a gene, the number of the exons, and the average length of an exon. We also take average values of these features for each chromosome and study correlations between those averages on the chromosomal level. Our data show universal features of exon-intron structures common to animals, plants, and protists (specifically, Arabidopsis thaliana, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster, Cryptococcus neoformans, Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Oryza sativa, and Plasmodium falciparum). We have verified linear correlation between the number of exons in a gene and the length of a protein coded by the gene, while the protein length increases in proportion to the number of exons. On the other hand, the average length of an exon always decreases with the number of exons. Finally, chromosome clustering based on average chromosome properties and parameters of linear regression between the number of exons in a gene and the net length of those exons demonstrates that these average chromosome properties are genome-specific features.

Keywords: Comparative genomics, exon-intron structure, eukaryotic clustering, linear regression.

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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Authors: Jelena S. Kiurski, Vesna S. Kecić, Snežana M. Aksentijević

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The identification and evaluation of organic and inorganic pollutants were performed in a flexographic facility in Novi Sad, Serbia. Air samples were collected and analyzed in situ, during 4-hours working time at five sampling points by the mobile gas chromatograph and ozonometer at the printing of collagen casing. Experimental results showed that the concentrations of isopropyl alcohol, acetone, total volatile organic compounds and ozone varied during the sampling times. The highest average concentrations of 94.80 ppm and 102.57 ppm were achieved at 200 minutes from starting the production for isopropyl alcohol and total volatile organic compounds, respectively. The mutual dependences between target hazardous and microclimate parameters were confirmed using a multiple linear regression model with software package STATISTICA 10. Obtained multiple coefficients of determination in the case of ozone and acetone (0.507 and 0.589) with microclimate parameters indicated a moderate correlation between the observed variables. However, a strong positive correlation was obtained for isopropyl alcohol and total volatile organic compounds (0.760 and 0.852) with microclimate parameters. Higher values of parameter F than F_critical for all examined dependences indicated the existence of statistically significant difference between the concentration levels of target pollutants and microclimates parameters. Given that, the microclimate parameters significantly affect the emission of investigated gases and the application of eco-friendly materials in production process present a necessity.

Keywords: Flexographic printing, indoor air, multiple regression analysis, pollution emission.

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Authors: Haitao Yang, Jianming Lv, Fei Xu, Xintong Wang, Yilin Huang, Lanting Xia, Xuewu Zhu

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Given a fixed fund, purchasing fewer hosts of higher capability or inversely more of lower capability is a must-be-made trade-off in practices for building a Hadoop big data platform. An exploratory study is presented for a Housing Big Data Platform project (HBDP), where typical big data computing is with SQL queries of aggregate, join, and space-time condition selections executed upon massive data from more than 10 million housing units. In HBDP, an empirical formula was introduced to predict the performance of host clusters potential for the intended typical big data computing, and it was shaped via a regression approach. With this empirical formula, it is easy to suggest an optimal cluster configuration. The investigation was based on a typical Hadoop computing ecosystem HDFS+Hive+Spark. A proper metric was raised to measure the performance of Hadoop clusters in HBDP, which was tested and compared with its predicted counterpart, on executing three kinds of typical SQL query tasks. Tests were conducted with respect to factors of CPU benchmark, memory size, virtual host division, and the number of element physical host in cluster. The research has been applied to practical cluster procurement for housing big data computing.

Keywords: Hadoop platform planning, optimal cluster scheme at fixed-fund, performance empirical formula, typical SQL query tasks.

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Authors: M. Benbouzid, Q. Bresson, A. Duclos, K. Longo, Q. Morel

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Currently, electricity suppliers must predict the consumption of their customers in order to deduce the power they need to produce. It is then important in a first step to optimize household consumptions to obtain more constant curves by limiting peaks in energy consumption. Here centralized real time scheduling is proposed to manage the equipments starting in parallel. The aim is not to exceed a certain limit while optimizing the power consumption across a habitat. The Raspberry Pi is used as a box; this scheduler interacts with the various sensors in 6LoWPAN. At the scale of a single dwelling, household consumption decreases, particularly at times corresponding to the peaks. However, it would be wiser to consider the use of a residential complex so that the result would be more significant. So the ceiling would no longer be fixed. The scheduling would be done on two scales, on the one hand per dwelling, and secondly, at the level of a residential complex.

Keywords: Smart grid, Energy box, Scheduling, Gang Model, Energy consumption, Energy management system, and Wireless Sensor Network.

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Authors: Bohsiu Wu

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Among serious crimes, child homicide is a rather rare event. However, the killing of children stirs up a special type of emotion in society that pales other criminal acts. This study examines the relevancy of three possible community-level explanations for child homicide: social deprivation, female empowerment, and social isolation. The social deprivation hypothesis posits that child homicide results from lack of resources in communities. The female empowerment hypothesis argues that a higher female status translates into a higher level of capability to prevent child homicide. Finally, the social isolation hypothesis regards child homicide as a result of lack of social connectivity. Child homicide data, aggregated by US postal ZIP codes in California from 1990 to 1999, were analyzed with a negative binomial regression. The results of the negative binomial analysis demonstrate that social deprivation is the most salient and consistent predictor among all other factors in explaining child homicide victimization at the ZIP-code level. Both social isolation and female labor force participation are weak predictors of child homicide victimization across communities. Further, results from the negative binomial regression show that it is the communities with a higher, not lower, degree of female labor force participation that are associated with a higher count of child homicide. It is possible that poor communities with a higher level of female employment have a lesser capacity to provide the necessary care and protection for the children. Policies aiming at reducing social deprivation and strengthening female empowerment possess the potential to reduce child homicide in the community.

Keywords: Child homicide, deprivation, empowerment, isolation.

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Authors: A. A. Penin

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An empirical linearly-hyperbolic approximation of the I - V characteristic of a solar cell is presented. This approximation is based on hyperbolic dependence of a current of p-n junctions on voltage for large currents. Such empirical approximation is compared with the early proposed formal linearly-hyperbolic approximation of a solar cell. The expressions defining laws of change of parameters of formal approximation at change of a photo current of family of characteristics are received. It allows simplifying a finding of parameters of approximation on actual curves, to specify their values. Analytical calculation of load regime for linearly - hyperbolic model leads to quadratic equation. Also, this model allows to define soundly a deviation from the maximum power regime and to compare efficiency of regimes of solar cells with different parameters.

Keywords: a solar cell generator, I − V characteristic, p − n junction, approximation

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Authors: Etienne Provencal, David L. St-Pierre

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A facility exploiting only electronic gambling machines (EGMs) opened in 2007 in Quebec City, Canada under the name of Salons de Jeux du Québec (SdjQ). This facility is one of the first worldwide to rely on that business model. This paper models the performance of such EGMs. The interest from a managerial point of view is to identify the variables that can be controlled or influenced so that a comprehensive model can help improve the overall performance of the business. The EGM individual performance model contains eight different variables under study (Game Title, Progressive jackpot, Bonus Round, Minimum Coin-in, Maximum Coin-in, Denomination, Slant Top and Position). Using data from Quebec City’s SdjQ, a linear regression analysis explains 90.80% of the EGM performance. Moreover, results show a behavior slightly different than that of a casino. The addition of GameTitle as a factor to predict the EGM performance is one of the main contributions of this paper. The choice of the game (GameTitle) is very important. Games having better position do not have significantly better performance than games located elsewhere on the gaming floor. Progressive jackpots have a positive and significant effect on the individual performance of EGMs. The impact of BonusRound on the dependent variable is significant but negative. The effect of Denomination is significant but weakly negative. As expected, the Language of an EGMS does not impact its individual performance. This paper highlights some possible improvements by indicating which features are performing well. Recommendations are given to increase the performance of the EGMs performance.

Keywords: EGM, linear regression, model prediction, slot operations.

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Authors: A. Appe, B. Poluparthi, L. Kasivajjula, U. Mv, S. Bagadi, P. Modi, A. Singh, H. Gunupudi, S. Troiano, J. Paul, J. Stovall, J. Yamamoto

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The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data are considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since it is data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for e.g., quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP, a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: Competition, DAGs, hospital, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: L. Parisi

Abstract:

Kinematic data wisely correlate vector quantities in space to scalar parameters in time to assess the degree of symmetry between the intact limb and the amputated limb with respect to a normal model derived from the gait of control group participants. Furthermore, these particular data allow a doctor to preliminarily evaluate the usefulness of a certain rehabilitation therapy. Kinetic curves allow the analysis of ground reaction forces (GRFs) to assess the appropriateness of human motion. Electromyography (EMG) allows the analysis of the fundamental lower limb force contributions to quantify the level of gait asymmetry. However, the use of this technological tool is expensive and requires patient’s hospitalization. This research work suggests overcoming the above limitations by applying artificial neural networks.

Keywords: Kinetics, kinematics, cyclograms, neural networks.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Ernesto Benini

Abstract:

This work presents a comparison between the Annual Energy Output (AEO) of two commercial vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) for a low-wind urban site: both a drag-driven and a liftdriven concepts are examined in order to be installed on top of the new Via dei Giustinelli building, Trieste (Italy). The power-curves, taken from the product specification sheets, have been matched to the wind characteristics of the selected installation site. The influence of rotor swept area and rated power on the performance of the two proposed wind turbines have been examined in detail, achieving a correlation between rotor swept area, electrical generator size and wind distribution, to be used as a guideline for the calculation of the AEO.

Keywords: Annual Energy Output, micro-generationtechnology, urban environment, Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

Abstract:

Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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