Search results for: source of risk.

Authors: Daniel Gonzales, Zev Winkelman, Trung Tran, Ricardo Sanchez, Dulani Woods, John Hollywood

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We have developed a distributed computing capability, Digital Forensics Compute Cluster (DFORC2) to speed up the ingestion and processing of digital evidence that is resident on computer hard drives. DFORC2 parallelizes evidence ingestion and file processing steps. It can be run on a standalone computer cluster or in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud. When running in a virtualized computing environment, its cluster resources can be dynamically scaled up or down using Kubernetes. DFORC2 is an open source project that uses Autopsy, Apache Spark and Kafka, and other open source software packages. It extends the proven open source digital forensics capabilities of Autopsy to compute clusters and cloud architectures, so digital forensics tasks can be accomplished efficiently by a scalable array of cluster compute nodes. In this paper, we describe DFORC2 and compare it with a standalone version of Autopsy when both are used to process evidence from hard drives of different sizes.

Keywords: Cloud computing, cybersecurity, digital forensics, Kafka, Kubernetes, Spark.

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: Activity-based cost estimating, Cost estimation, ETICS, Life cycle costing.

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Authors: Rein Kuusik, Grete Lind

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Generator of hypotheses is a new method for data mining. It makes possible to classify the source data automatically and produces a particular enumeration of patterns. Pattern is an expression (in a certain language) describing facts in a subset of facts. The goal is to describe the source data via patterns and/or IF...THEN rules. Used evaluation criteria are deterministic (not probabilistic). The search results are trees - form that is easy to comprehend and interpret. Generator of hypotheses uses very effective algorithm based on the theory of monotone systems (MS) named MONSA (MONotone System Algorithm).

Keywords: data mining, monotone systems, pattern, rule.

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Authors: Zeinep A. Berkimbayeva, Almagul T. Mansharipova, Elmira M. Khussainova, Leyla B. Djansugurova

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It is believed that DNA damaging toxic metabolites contributes to the development of different pathological conditions. To prevent harmful influence of toxic agents, cells developed number of protecting mechanisms, such as enzymatic reaction of detoxification of reactive metabolites and repair of DNA damage. The aim of the study was to examine the association between polymorphism of GSTT1/GSTM1 and XRCC1/3 genes and coronary artery disease (CAD) incidence. To examine a polymorphism of these genes in CAD susceptibility in patients and controls, PCR based genotyping assay was performed. For GST genes, frequency of GSTM1 null genotype among CAD affected group was significantly increased than in control group (P<0.001). Frequencies of the GSTT1 null and positive alleles are almost equal in both groups (P>0.1). We found that neither XRCC1 Arg399Gln nor XRCC3 Thr241Met were associated with CAD risk. Obtained data suggests that GSTM1 null genotype carriers are more susceptible to CAD development.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, DNA reparation, gene polymorphism, risk factors, xenobiotic detoxification.

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Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

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The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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Authors: H. B. Nguendo Yongsi, Thora M. Herrmann, A. Lutumba Ntetu, Rémy Sietchiping, Christopher Bryant

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Health problems linked to urban growth are current major concerns of developing countries. In 2002 and 2005, an interdisciplinary program “Populations et Espaces ├á Risques SANitaires" (PERSAN) was set up under the patronage of the Development and Research Institute. Centered on health in Cameroon-s urban environment, the program mainly sought to (i) identify diarrhoea risk factors in Yaoundé, (ii) to measure their prevalence and apprehend their spatial distribution. The crosssectional epidemiological study that was carried out revealed a diarrheic prevalence of 14.4% (437 cases of diarrhoea on the 3,034 children examined). Also, among risk factors studied, household refuse management methods used by city dwellers were statistically associated to these diarrhoeas. Moreover, it happened that levels of diarrhoeal attacks varied consistently from one neighbourhood to another because of the discrepancy urbanization process of the Yaoundé metropolis.

Keywords: Diarrhea, health risk, household refuses handling, sanitation, Yaoundé.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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Authors: Ismail Celik, Ismail Sahin, Fetah Eren

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The computer, among the most important inventions of the twentieth century, has become an increasingly important component in our everyday lives. Computer games also have become increasingly popular among people day-by-day, owing to their features based on realistic virtual environments, audio and visual features, and the roles they offer players. In the present study, the metaphors students have for computer games are investigated, as well as an effort to fill the gap in the literature. Students were asked to complete the sentence—‘Computer game is like/similar to….because….’— to determine the middle school students’ metaphorical images of the concept for ‘computer game’. The metaphors created by the students were grouped in six categories, based on the source of the metaphor. These categories were ordered as ‘computer game as a means of entertainment’, ‘computer game as a beneficial means’, ‘computer game as a basic need’, ‘computer game as a source of evil’, ‘computer game as a means of withdrawal’, and ‘computer game as a source of addiction’, according to the number of metaphors they included.

Keywords: Computer game, metaphor, middle school students.

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Authors: Javier Rivas, Olga Gimeno, Maria Carbajo, Teresa Borralho

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The elimination of ranitidine (a pharmaceutical compound) has been carried out in the presence of UV-C radiation. After some preliminary experiments, it has been experienced the no influence of the gas nature (air or oxygen) bubbled in photolytic experiments. From simple photolysis experiments the quantum yield of this compound has been determined. Two photolytic approximation has been used, the linear source emission in parallel planes and the point source emission in spherical planes. The quantum yield obtained was in the proximity of 0.05 mol Einstein-1 regardless of the method used. Addition of free radical promoters (hydrogen peroxide) increases the ranitidine removal rate while the use of photocatalysts (TiO2) negatively affects the process.

Keywords: Quantum yield, photolysis, ranitidine, watertreatment.

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Authors: Cheng-Suan Lee, Khong Neng Choong, So Gean Koh, Chee Onn Chow, Mazlan Abbas

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Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) application or commonly known as softphone has been developing an increasingly large market in today-s telecommunication world and the trend is expected to continue with the enhancement of additional features. This includes leveraging on the existing presence services, location and contextual information to enable more ubiquitous and seamless communications. In this paper, we discuss the concept of seamless session transfer for real-time application such as VoIP and IPTV, and our prototype implementation of such concept on a selected open source VoIP application. The first part of this paper is about conducting performance evaluation and assessments across some commonly found open source VoIP applications that are Ekiga, Kphone, Linphone and Twinkle so as to identify one of them for implementing our design of seamless session transfer. Subjective testing has been carried out to evaluate the audio performance on these VoIP applications and rank them according to their Mean Opinion Score (MOS) results. The second part of this paper is to discuss on the performance evaluations of our prototype implementation of session transfer using Linphone.

Keywords: audio codec, softphone, session transfer.

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Authors: Saimir Heta, Ilma Robo, Nevila Alliu, Tea Meta

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Background: Plasma levels of inflammatory markers are the expression of the infectious wastes of existing periodontitis, as well as of existing inflammation everywhere in the body. Materials and Methods: The study consists of the clinical part of the measurement of inflammatory markers of 23 patients diagnosed with chronic periodontitis and the recording of parental periodontal parameters of patient periodontal status: hemorrhage index and probe values, before and 7-10 days after non-surgical periodontal treatment. Results: The level of fibrinogen drops according to the categorization of disease progression, active and passive, with the biggest % (18%-30%) at the fluctuation 10-20 mg/d. Fluctuations in fibrinogen level according to the age of patients in the range 0-10 mg/dL under 40 years and over 40 years was 13%-26%, in the range 10-20 mg/dL was 26%-22%, in the 20-40 mg/dL was 9%-4%. Conclusions: Non-surgical periodontal treatment significantly reduces the level of non-inflammatory markers in the blood. Oral health significantly reduces the potential source for periodontal bacteria, with the potential of promoting thromboembolism, through interaction between thrombocytes.

Keywords: Chronic periodontitis, atherosclerosis, risk factor, inflammatory markers.

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Authors: Chyng Sun

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This brief report examines correlations between Korean men’s interest in gonzo pornography, perceptions of pornography’s functional value, and use of condoms. The report found that, neither a higher interest in gonzo or the perception that pornography is a source of sexual information was directly related to condom utilization. However, interest in gonzo pornography interacted with pornography perceptions to predict condomless sex. The findings suggest that Korean men who 1) had higher interest in viewing gonzo pornography, and 2) had a tendency to view pornography as a source of sexual information, are more likely to have sex without condoms. That is, when viewers consider pornography to be a form of sexual education, they are more likely to use the learned pornographic script to inform their sexual behavior.

Keywords: Korean, male, pornography, sexuality.

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Authors: Yuji Waizumi, Tohru Sato, Yoshiaki Nemoto

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Recently, Denial of Service(DoS) attacks and Distributed DoS(DDoS) attacks which are stronger form of DoS attacks from plural hosts have become security threats on the Internet. It is important to identify the attack source and to block attack traffic as one of the measures against these attacks. In general, it is difficult to identify them because information about the attack source is falsified. Therefore a method of identifying the attack source by tracing the route of the attack traffic is necessary. A traceback method which uses traffic patterns, using changes in the number of packets over time as criteria for the attack traceback has been proposed. The traceback method using the traffic patterns can trace the attack by matching the shapes of input traffic patterns and the shape of output traffic pattern observed at a network branch point such as a router. The traffic pattern is a shapes of traffic and unfalsifiable information. The proposed trace methods proposed till date cannot obtain enough tracing accuracy, because they directly use traffic patterns which are influenced by non-attack traffics. In this paper, a new traffic pattern matching method using Independent Component Analysis(ICA) is proposed.

Keywords: Distributed Denial of Service, Independent Component Analysis, Traffic pattern

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Authors: M. Pisol B Mat Isa, Asmak Ab Rahman, Hezlina Bt M Hashim, Abd Mutalib B Embong

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Al-Murabahah is an Islamic financing facility used in asset financing, the profit rate of the contract is determined by components which are also being used in the conventional banking. Such are cost of fund, overhead cost, risk premium cost and bank-s profit margin. At the same time, the profit rate determined by Islamic banking system also refers to Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) in London as a benchmark. This practice has risen arguments among Muslim scholars in term of its validity of the contract; whether the contract maintains the Shariah compliance or not. This paper aims to explore the view of Shariah towards the above components practiced by Islamic Banking in determining the profit rate of al-murabahah asset financing in Malaysia. This is a comparative research which applied the views of Muslim scholars from all major mazahibs in Islamic jurisprudence and examined the practices by Islamic banks in Malaysia for the above components. The study found that the shariah accepts all the components with conditions. The cost of fund is accepted as a portion of al-mudarabah-s profit, the overhead cost is accepted as a cost of product, risk premium cost consist of business risk and mitigation risk are accepted through the concept of alta-awun and bank-s profit margin is accepted as a right of bank after venturing in risky investment.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, al-murabahah and asset financing

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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Authors: Arijit Ghosh, Tony Givargis

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Video sensor networks operate on stringent requirements of latency. Packets have a deadline within which they have to be delivered. Violation of the deadline causes a packet to be treated as lost and the loss of packets ultimately affects the quality of the application. Network latency is typically a function of many interacting components. In this paper, we propose ways of reducing the forwarding latency of a packet at intermediate nodes. The forwarding latency is caused by a combination of processing delay and queueing delay. The former is incurred in order to determine the next hop in dynamic routing. We show that unless link failures in a very specific and unlikely pattern, a vast majority of these lookups are redundant. To counter this we propose source routing as the routing strategy. However, source routing suffers from issues related to scalability and being impervious to network dynamics. We propose solutions to counter these and show that source routing is definitely a viable option in practical sized video networks. We also propose a fast and fair packet scheduling algorithm that reduces queueing delay at the nodes. We support our claims through extensive simulation on realistic topologies with practical traffic loads and failure patterns.

Keywords: Sensor networks, Packet latency, Network design, Networkperformance.

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

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Generally the natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1km to the factory, within 1km to 5km and above 5km to the factory. Also questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that fall between less than 1km and 1km to 5km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce health risk problems.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, Ewekoro, GIS, Health risk, Satellite imagery.

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Authors: Amit Kumar Jakhar, Kumar Rajnish

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Inherited complexity is one of the difficult tasks in software engineering field. Further, it is said that there is no physical laws or standard guidelines suit for designing different types of software. Hence, to make the software engineering as a matured engineering discipline like others, it is necessary that it has its own theoretical frameworks and laws. Software designing and development is a human effort which takes a lot of time and considers various parameters for successful completion of the software. The cognitive informatics plays an important role for understanding the essential characteristics of the software. The aim of this work is to consider the fundamental characteristics of the source code of Object-Oriented software i.e. complexity and understandability. The complexity of the programs is analyzed with the help of extracted important attributes of the source code, which is further utilized to evaluate the understandability factor. The aforementioned characteristics are analyzed on the basis of 16 C++ programs by distributing them to forty MCA students. They all tried to understand the source code of the given program and mean time is taken as the actual time needed to understand the program. For validation of this work, Briand’s framework is used and the presented metric is also evaluated comparatively with existing metric which proves its robustness.

Keywords: Software metrics, object-oriented, complexity, cognitive weight, understandability, basic control structures.

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. Paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: Expert System, Knowledge Management, Pipeline Projects, Risk Mismanagement.

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Authors: Petr Teply

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The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) influences how financial institutions around the world, and especially European Union institutions, determine the amount of capital to reserve. However, as the recent global crisis has shown, the revision of Basel II is needed to reflect current trends, such as increased volatility and correlation, in the world financial markets. The overall objective of Basel II is to increase the safety and soundness of the international financial system. Basel II builds on three main pillars: Pillar I deals with the minimum capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk, Pillar II focuses on the supervisory review process and finally Pillar III promotes market discipline through enhanced disclosure requirements for banks. The aim of this paper is to provide the historical background, key features and impact of Basel II on financial markets. Moreover, we discuss new proposals for international bank regulation (sometimes referred to as Basel III) which include requirements for higher quality, constituency and transparency of banks' capital and risk management, regulation of OTC markets and introduction of new liquidity standards for internationally active banks.

Keywords: Basel II, Basel III, risk management, bank regulation

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Mohammad Aziz Shah Mohamed Arip, Aslina Ahmad, Fauziah Mohd Sa'ad, Samsiah Mohd Jais, Syed Sofian Syed Salim

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This experimental study evaluates the effect of using Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Multidimensional Self- Concept Model (MSCM) in a drug prevention programme to increase resiliency and reduce aggression among at-risk youth in Malaysia. A number of 60 (N=60) university students who were at-risk of taking drugs were involved in this study. Participants were identified with self-rating scales, Adolescent Resilience Attitude Scale (ARAS) and Aggression Questionnaire. Based on the mean score of these instruments, the participants were divided into the treatment group, and the control group. Data were analyzed using t-test. The finding showed that the mean score of resiliency was increased in the treatment group compared to the control group. It also shows that the mean score of aggression was reduced in the treatment group compared to the control group. Drug Prevention Programme was found to help in enhancing resiliency and reducing aggression among participants in the treatment group compared to the controlled group. Implications were given regarding the preventive actions on drug abuse among youth in Malaysia.

Keywords: Drug Prevention Programme, Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT), Multidimensional Self Concept Model (MSCM), resiliency, aggression, at-risk youth.

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Authors: James D. Clark, Bernard H. Stark

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The paper presents a modelling methodology for small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.

Keywords: Energy Analysis, Forecasting, Distributed powergeneration.

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Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

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As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: Collaborative work, construction industry, contract-models, influence, partnering, project management, risk.

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Authors: R. Bourziza, W. El Khoumsi, I. Mghabbar, I. Rahou

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The flood-risk zones called Merjas are lowlands that are flooded during the rainy season. Indeed, these depressed areas were reclaimed to dry them out in order to exploit their agricultural potential. Thus, farmers were able to start exploiting these drained lands. As the development of modern agriculture in Morocco progressed, farmers began to practice irrigated agriculture. In a context of vulnerability to floods and the need for optimal exploitation of the agricultural potential of the flood-risk zones, the question of how farmers are adapting to this context and the degree of exploitation of this potential arises. It is in these circumstances that this work was initiated, aiming at the characterization of irrigation practices in the flood-risk zones of the Ghareb lowland (Morocco). This characterization is based on two main axes: the characterization of irrigation techniques used, as well as the management of irrigation in these areas. In order to achieve our objective, two complementary approaches have been adopted; the first one is based on interviews with administrative agents and on farmer surveys, and the second one is based on field measurements of a few parameters, such as flow rate, pressure, uniformity coefficient of drippers and salinity. The results of this work led to conclude that the choice of the practiced crop (crop resistant to excess water in winter and vegetable crops during other seasons) and the availability and nature of water resources are the main criteria that determine the choice of the irrigation system. Even if irrigation management is imprecise, farmers are able to achieve agricultural yields that are comparable to those recorded in the entire irrigated perimeter. However, agricultural yields in these areas are still threatened by climate change, since these areas play the role of water retaining basins during floods by protecting the downstream areas, which can also damage the crops there instilled during the autumn. This work has also noted that the predominance of private pumping in flood-risk zones in the coastal zone creates a risk of marine intrusion, which risks endangering the groundwater table. Thus, this work enabled us to understand the functioning and the adaptation measures of these vulnerable zones for the sustainability of the Merjas and a better valorization of these marginalized lowlands.

Keywords: Flood-risk zones, irrigation practices, climate change, adaptation measures.

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Authors: Dia I. Abu-Al-Nadi, M. J. Mismar, T. H. Ismail

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A technique for estimating the direction-of-arrival (DOA) of unknown number of source signals is presented using the eigen-approach. The eigenvector corresponding to the minimum eigenvalue of the autocorrelation matrix yields the minimum output power of the array. Also, the array polynomial with this eigenvector possesses roots on the unit circle. Therefore, the pseudo-spectrum is found by perturbing the phases of the roots one by one and calculating the corresponding array output power. The results indicate that the DOAs and the number of source signals are estimated accurately in the presence of a wide range of input noise levels.

Keywords: Array signal processing, direction-of-arrival, antenna arrays, eigenvalues, eigenvectors.

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Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

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It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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Authors: Hamed Rahmani, Wim Groot

Abstract:

The term "youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)" refers to a combination of youth unemployment and school dropout. This study investigates the variables that increase the risk of becoming NEET in Iran. A selection bias-adjusted Probit model was employed using machine learning to identify these risk factors. We used cross-sectional data obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran and the Ministry of Cooperatives Labor and Social Welfare that are taken from the labor force survey conducted in the spring of 2021. We look at years of education, work experience, housework, the number of children under the age of 6 years in the home, family education, birthplace, and the amount of land owned by households. Results show that hours spent performing domestic chores enhance the likelihood of youth becoming NEET, and years of education, years of potential work experience decrease the chance of being NEET. The findings also show that female youth born in cities were less likely than those born in rural regions to become NEET.

Keywords: NEET youth, probit, CART, machine learning, unemployment.

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Authors: Ali Z a'fari

Abstract:

Voltage flicker is a disturbance in electrical power systems. The reason for this disturbance is mainly the large nonlinear loads such as electric arc furnaces. Synchronous static compensator (STATCOM) is considered as a proper technique to mitigate the voltage flicker. Application of more suitable and precise power electronic converter leads to a more precise performance of the compensator. In this paper a three-level 12-pulse voltage source inverter (VSI) with a 12-terminal transformer connected to the ac system is studied and the obtained results are compared with the performance of a STATCOM using a simple two-level VSI and an optimal and more precise performance of the proposed scheme is achieved.

Keywords: Flicker mitigation, STATCOM, Inverter, 12-pulse, 3- level

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