Search results for: loss models

Authors: Jonathan Bohn, Jorge Rebaza, Kaitlin Speer

Abstract:

The dynamics of a predator-prey model with continuous threshold policy harvesting functions on the prey is studied. Theoretical and numerical methods are used to investigate boundedness of solutions, existence of bionomic equilibria, and the stability properties of coexistence equilibrium points and periodic orbits. Several bifurcations as well as some heteroclinic orbits are computed.

Keywords: Predator-prey models, threshold harvesting, dynamicalsystems

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control and PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act). Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models include COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them related to the mechanistic and reductionist principles over which those models are built. As systems theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of organizations, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in some organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, Maturity Model, Systems Theory, Viable System Model.

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

Abstract:

The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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Authors: Mahesh Chudasama, Harit Raval

Abstract:

Conical sections and shells of metal plates manufactured by 3-roller conical bending process are widely used in the industries. The process is completed by first bending the metal plates statically and then dynamic roller bending sequentially. It is required to have an analytical model to get maximum bending force, for optimum design of the machine, for static bending stage. Analytical models assuming various stress conditions are considered and these analytical models are compared considering various parameters and reported in this paper. It is concluded from the study that for higher bottom roller inclination, the shear stress affects greatly to the static bending force whereas for lower bottom roller inclination it can be neglected.

Keywords: Roller-bending, static-bending, stress-conditions, analytical-modeling.

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Authors: Mihails Kulikovs, Ernests Petersons

Abstract:

Network management techniques have long been of interest to the networking research community. The queue size plays a critical role for the network performance. The adequate size of the queue maintains Quality of Service (QoS) requirements within limited network capacity for as many users as possible. The appropriate estimation of the queuing model parameters is crucial for both initial size estimation and during the process of resource allocation. The accurate resource allocation model for the management system increases the network utilization. The present paper demonstrates the results of empirical observation of memory allocation for packet-based services.

Keywords: Queuing System, Packet Loss Probability, Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC), Performanceevaluation, Quality of Service (QoS).

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Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: Black Box, faults, failure, software reliability.

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents a state-of-the-art survey of the operations research models developed for internal audit planning. Two alternative approaches have been followed in the literature for audit planning: (1) identifying the optimal audit frequency; and (2) determining the optimal audit resource allocation. The first approach identifies the elapsed time between two successive audits, which can be presented as the optimal number of audits in a given planning horizon, or the optimal number of transactions after which an audit should be performed. It also includes the optimal audit schedule. The second approach determines the optimal allocation of audit frequency among all auditable units in the firm. In our review, we discuss both the deterministic and probabilistic models developed for audit planning. In addition, game theory models are reviewed to find the optimal auditing strategy based on the interactions between the auditors and the clients.

Keywords: Operations research applications, audit frequency, audit planning, audit-staff scheduling.

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Authors: Dmitry V. Fomichev, Vladimir I. Solonin

Abstract:

This paper presents the findings from a numerical simulation of the flow in 37-rod fuel assembly models spaced by a double-wire trapezoidal wrapping as applied to the BREST-OD-300 experimental nuclear reactor. Data on a high static pressure distribution within the models, and equations for determining the fuel bundle flow friction factors have been obtained. Recommendations are provided on using the closing turbulence models available in the ANSYS Fluent. A comparative analysis has been performed against the existing empirical equations for determining the flow friction factors. The calculated and experimental data fit has been shown.

An analysis into the experimental data and results of the numerical simulation of the BREST-OD-300 fuel rod assembly hydrodynamic performance are presented.

Keywords: BREST-OD-300, ware-spaces, fuel assembly, computation fluid dynamics.

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Authors: M. Morri, A. Soualmia, P. Belleudy

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Vegetation affects the mean and turbulent flow structure. It may increase flood risks and sediment transport. Therefore, it is important to develop analytical approaches for the bed shear stress on vegetated bed, to predict resistance caused by vegetation. In the recent years, experimental and numerical models have both been developed to model the effects of submerged vegetation on open-channel flow. In this paper, different analytic models are compared and tested using the criteria of deviation, to explore their capacity for predicting the mean velocity and select the suitable one that will be applied in real case of rivers. The comparison between the measured data in vegetated flume and simulated mean velocities indicated, a good performance, in the case of rigid vegetation, whereas, Huthoff model shows the best agreement with a high coefficient of determination (R2=80%) and the smallest error in the prediction of the average velocities.

Keywords: Analytic Models, Comparison, Mean Velocity, Vegetation.

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Authors: Amit Sachan

Abstract:

The network designing and data modeling developments which are the two significant research tasks in direction to tolerate power control of Microgrid concluded using IEC 61850 data models and facilities. The current casing areas of IEC 61580 include infrastructures in substation automation systems, among substations and to DERs. So, for LV microgrid power control, previously using the IEC 61850 amenities to control the smart electrical devices, we have to model those devices as IEC 61850 data models and design a network topology to maintenance all-in-one communiqué amid those devices. In adding, though IEC 61850 assists modeling a portion by open-handed several object models for common functions similar measurement, metering, monitoring…etc., there are motionless certain missing smithereens for building a multiplicity of functions for household appliances like tuning the temperature of an electric heater or refrigerator.

Keywords: IEC 61850, RCMC, HCMC, DER Unit Controller.

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Authors: Ghada A. Alfattni

Abstract:

Analysing unbalanced datasets is one of the challenges that practitioners in machine learning field face. However, many researches have been carried out to determine the effectiveness of the use of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to address this issue. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the effectiveness of the SMOTE over different models on unbalanced datasets. Three classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbour) were tested with multiple datasets, then the same datasets were oversampled by using SMOTE and applied again to the three models to compare the differences in the performances. Results of experiments show that the highest number of nearest neighbours gives lower values of error rates. 

Keywords: Imbalanced datasets, SMOTE, machine learning, logistic regression, support vector machine, nearest neighbour.

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Authors: Costin Pribeanu

Abstract:

The model-based approach to user interface design relies on developing separate models capturing various aspects about users, tasks, application domain, presentation and dialog structures. This paper presents a task modeling approach for user interface design and aims at exploring mappings between task, domain and presentation models. The basic idea of our approach is to identify typical configurations in task and domain models and to investigate how they relate each other. A special emphasis is put on applicationspecific functions and mappings between domain objects and operational task structures. In this respect, we will address two layers in task decomposition: a functional (planning) layer and an operational layer.

Keywords: task modeling, user interface design, unit tasks, basic tasks, operational task model.

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Authors: V. Vargas-Alejo, L. E. Montero-Moguel

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Understanding the concept of function has been important in mathematics education for many years. In this study, the models built by a group of five business administration and accounting undergraduate students when carrying out a population growth activity are analyzed. The theoretical framework is the Models and Modeling Perspective. The results show how the students included tables, graphics, and algebraic representations in their models. Using technology was useful to interpret, describe, and predict the situation. The first model, the students built to describe the situation, was linear. After that, they modified and refined their ways of thinking; finally, they created exponential growth. Modeling the activity was useful to deep on mathematical concepts such as covariation, rate of change, and exponential function also to differentiate between linear and exponential growth.

Keywords: Covariation reasoning, exponential function, modeling, representations.

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Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

The present paper is oriented to classification and application of agent technique in simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. The main ideas root in the fact that the best way for description of computer simulation models is the technique of describing the simulated system itself (and the translation into the computer code is provided as automatic), and that the anticipation itself is often nested.

Keywords: Agents, Anticipatory systems, Discrete eventsimulation, Simula, Taxonomy.

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Authors: A. Chinig, J. Zbitou, A. Errkik, L. Elabdellaoui, A. Tajmouati, A. Tribak, M. Latrach

Abstract:

This paper presents a new structure of microstrip band pass filter (BPF) based on coupled stepped impedance resonators. Each filter consists of two coupled stepped impedance resonators connected to microstrip feed lines. The coupled junction is utilized to connect the two BPFs to the antenna. This two band pass filters are designed and simulated to operate for the digital communication system (DCS) and Industrial Scientific and Medical (ISM) bands at 1.8 GHz and 2.45 GHz respectively. The proposed circuit presents good performances with an insertion loss lower than 2.3 dB and isolation between the two channels greater than 21 dB. The prototype of the optimized diplexer have been investigated numerically by using ADS Agilent and verified with CST microwave software.

Keywords: Band Pass Filter, coupled junction, coupled stepped impedance resonators, diplexer, insertion loss, isolation.

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Authors: Alan S. Hoback

Abstract:

Most people see human faces in car front and back ends because of the process of pareidolia. 96 people were surveyed to see how many of them saw a face in the vehicle styling. Participants were aged 18 to 72 years. 94% of the participants saw faces in the front-end design of production models. All participants that recognized faces indicated that most styles showed some degree of an angry expression. It was found that women were more likely to see faces in inanimate objects. However, with respect to whether women were more likely to perceive anger in the vehicle design, the results need further clarification. Survey responses were correlated to the design features of vehicles to determine what cues the respondents were likely looking at when responding. Whether the features looked anthropomorphic was key to anger perception. Features such as the headlights which could represent eyes and the air intake that could represent a mouth had high correlations to trends in scores. Results are compared among models, makers, by groupings of body styles classifications for the top 12 brands sold in the US, and by year for the top 20 models sold in the US in 2016. All of the top models sold increased in perception of an angry expression over the last 20 years or since the model was introduced, but the relative change varied by body style grouping.

Keywords: Aggressive driving, face recognition, road rage, vehicle styling.

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Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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Authors: N. Seladji-Hassaine, L. Merad, S.M. Meriah, F.T. Bendimerad

Abstract:

UWB is a very attractive technology for many applications. It provides many advantages such as fine resolution and high power efficiency. Our interest in the current study is the use of UWB radar technique in microwave medical imaging systems, especially for early breast cancer detection. The Federal Communications Commission FCC allowed frequency bandwidth of 3.1 to 10.6 GHz for this purpose. In this paper we suggest an UWB Bowtie slot antenna with enhanced bandwidth. Effects of varying the geometry of the antenna on its performance and bandwidth are studied. The proposed antenna is simulated in CST Microwave Studio. Details of antenna design and simulation results such as return loss and radiation patterns are discussed in this paper. The final antenna structure exhibits good UWB characteristics and has surpassed the bandwidth requirements.

Keywords: Ultra Wide Band (UWB), microwave imaging system, Bowtie antenna, return loss, impedance bandwidth enhancement.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: Zhihan Li

Abstract:

Nowadays, most universities use the course enrollment system considering students’ registration orders. However, the students’ preference level to certain courses is also one important factor to consider. In this research, the possibility of applying a preference-first system has been discussed and analyzed compared to the order-first system. A bipartite graph is applied to resemble the relationship between students and courses they tend to register. With the graph set up, we apply Ford-Fulkerson (F.F.) Algorithm to maximize parings between two sets of nodes, in our case, students and courses. Two models are proposed in this paper: the one considered students’ order first, and the one considered students’ preference first. By comparing and contrasting the two models, we highlight the usability of models which potentially leads to better designs for school course registration systems.

Keywords: Bipartite graph, Ford-Fulkerson Algorithm, graph theory, maximum matching.

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Authors: Mohammed H. Mohammed, Mats Emborg, Roland Pusch, Sven Knutsson

Abstract:

Concrete performance is strongly affected by the particle packing degree since it determines the distribution of the cementitious component and the interaction of mineral particles. By using packing theory designers will be able to select optimal aggregate materials for preparing concrete with low cement content, which is beneficial from the point of cost. Optimum particle packing implies minimizing porosity and thereby reducing the amount of cement paste needed to fill the voids between the aggregate particles, taking also the rheology of the concrete into consideration. For reaching good fluidity superplasticizers are required. The results from pilot tests at Luleå University of Technology (LTU) show various forms of the proposed theoretical models, and the empirical approach taken in the study seems to provide a safer basis for developing new, improved packing models.

Keywords: Aggregate mix, Computer program, Concrete mix design, Models of packing.

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Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Viliam Hirner, Michal Martinovič, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel error model for packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first one is used for packet generation and the second one generates correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by proposed model are compared with the real data collection.

Keywords: Wireless channel, error model, Markov chain, Elliot model, Gilbert model, generator, IEEE 802.11.

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Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

Abstract:

In this paper, a study on the applications of the optimization and regression techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets for minimal cross section dimension is introduced. From the condition of the moment equilibrium of a mechanic system including three gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for calculation of the partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets were given. Especially, by regression analysis, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are introduced. These models allow determining the partial ratios accurately and simply.

Keywords: Gearbox design, optimal design, helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova

Abstract:

Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrates ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φ des deserves additional study.

Keywords: Centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser.

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Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

Abstract:

DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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Authors: Bahloul Amel

Abstract:

This study is an attempt to raise the awareness of the stakeholders and the authorities on the sensitivity of Algerian secondary school teachers of English as a Foreign Language about the students’ loss of English language skills learned during formal schooling with effort and at expense and the supposed measures to arrest that loss. Data was collected from secondary school teachers of EFL and analyzed quantitatively using a questionnaire containing open-ended and close-ended questions. The results advocate a consensus about the need for actions to be adopted to make assessment techniques outcome-oriented. Most of the participants were in favor of including curricular activities involving contextualized learning, problem-solving learning critical selfawareness, self and peer-assisted learning, use of computers and internet so as to make learners autonomous.

Keywords: Contextualized learning, EFL, Lifelong learning.

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

Abstract:

The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: Neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression.

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Authors: M. Sumida

Abstract:

An experimental investigation was performed on pulp liquid flow in straight ducts with a square cross section. Fully developed steady flow was visualized and the fiber concentration was obtained using a light-section method developed by the author et al. The obtained results reveal quantitatively, in a definite form, the distribution of the fiber concentration. From the results and measurements of pressure loss, it is found that the flow characteristics of pulp liquid in ducts can be classified into five patterns. The relationships among the distributions of mean and fluctuation of fiber concentration, the pressure loss and the flow velocity are discussed, and then the features for each pattern are extracted. The degree of nonuniformity of the fiber concentration, which is indicated by the standard deviation of its distribution, is decreased from 0.3 to 0.05 with an increase in the velocity of the tested pulp liquid from 0.4 to 0.8%.

Keywords: Fiber Concentration, Flow Characteristic, Pulp Liquid, Straight Duct.

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Authors: Wen-Pai Wang, Mei-Ching Tang

Abstract:

The service sector continues to grow and the percentage of GDP accounted for by service industries keeps increasing. The growth and importance of service to an economy is not just a phenomenon of advanced economies, service is now a majority of the world gross domestic products. However, the performance evaluation process of new service development problems generally involves uncertain and imprecise data. This paper presents a 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic computing approach to dealing with heterogeneous information and information loss problems while the processes of subjective evaluation integration. The proposed method based on group decision-making scenario to assist business managers in measuring performance of new service development manipulates the heterogeneity integration processes and avoids the information loss effectively.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, Multigranular linguistic computing, New service development, Performance evaluation.

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Authors: G. R. Boroun, R. Harami

Abstract:

Using form factors of the proton and the neutron for different of Q2, bag radius of the proton and the neutron can be obtained based on bag models. Then using static bag radius, magnetic moments of the proton and the neutron can be obtained and compared with other results.

Keywords: MIT bag model, proton and neutron, magnetic moment.

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