Search results for: Financial Market Monitoring
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2300

Search results for: Financial Market Monitoring

1910 Social Organization of Kazakhstani Business under Conditions of Customs Union and Common Free Market Zone: Empirical Study Practice

Authors: Zh. Nurbekova, Z. Zhanazarova, A. Beissenova

Abstract:

This article is devoted to the analysis of results of sociological researches carried out by authors directed on studying of opinion of representatives of small, medium and big business on formation of the Customs Union, Common Free Market Zone with participation of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. It-s forecasted that companies, their branches will interpenetrate with registration and moving their businesses to regions with more beneficial conditions. They say that in Kazakhstan there are more profitable geo-strategic operating environment for business and lower taxes. Russia using this opportunity will create new conditions for expansion into other countries of Central Asia and China. Opinions of participants of questionnaire and expert poll different in estimation of value of these two integration mechanisms since market segments on the one hand extend, but also on the other hand - loss of exclusive influence in certain fields of activity.

Keywords: Customs Union, Kazakhstan, sociological research.

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1909 Microbiological Analysis, Cytotoxic and Genotoxic Effects from Material Captured in PM2.5 and PM10 Filters Used in the Aburrá Valley Air Quality Monitoring Network (Colombia)

Authors: Carmen E. Zapata, Juan Bautista, Olga Montoya, Claudia Moreno, Marisol Suarez, Alejandra Betancur, Duvan Nanclares, Natalia A. Cano

Abstract:

This study aims to evaluate the diversity of microorganisms in filters PM2.5 and PM10; and determine the genotoxic and cytotoxic activity of the complex mixture present in PM2.5 filters used in the Aburrá Valley Air Quality Monitoring Network (Colombia). The research results indicate that particulate matter PM2.5 of different monitoring stations are bacteria; however, this study of detection of bacteria and their phylogenetic relationship is not complete evidence to connect the microorganisms with pathogenic or degrading activities of compounds present in the air. Additionally, it was demonstrated the damage induced by the particulate material in the cell membrane, lysosomal and endosomal membrane and in the mitochondrial metabolism; this damage was independent of the PM2.5 concentrations in almost all the cases.

Keywords: Cytotoxic, genotoxic, microbiological analysis, PM10, PM2.5.

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1908 Data Transmission Reliability in Short Message Integrated Distributed Monitoring Systems

Authors: Sui Xin, Li Chunsheng, Tian Di

Abstract:

Short message integrated distributed monitoring systems (SM-DMS) are growing rapidly in wireless communication applications in various areas, such as electromagnetic field (EMF) management, wastewater monitoring, and air pollution supervision, etc. However, delay in short messages often makes the data embedded in SM-DMS transmit unreliably. Moreover, there are few regulations dealing with this problem in SMS transmission protocols. In this study, based on the analysis of the command and data requirements in the SM-DMS, we developed a processing model for the control center to solve the delay problem in data transmission. Three components of the model: the data transmission protocol, the receiving buffer pool method, and the timer mechanism were described in detail. Discussions on adjusting the threshold parameter in the timer mechanism were presented for the adaptive performance during the runtime of the SM-DMS. This model optimized the data transmission reliability in SM-DMS, and provided a supplement to the data transmission reliability protocols at the application level.

Keywords: Delay, SMS, reliability, distributed monitoringsystem (DMS), wireless communication.

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1907 Low-Cost Monitoring System for Hydroponic Urban Vertical Farms

Authors: Francesco Ruscio, Paolo Paoletti, Jens Thomas, Paul Myers, Sebastiano Fichera

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a low-cost monitoring system for a hydroponic urban vertical farm, enabling its automation and a quantitative assessment of the farm performance. Urban farming has seen increasing interest in the last decade thanks to the development of energy efficient and affordable LED lights; however, the optimal configuration of such systems (i.e. amount of nutrients, light-on time, ambient temperature etc.) is mostly based on the farmers’ experience and empirical guidelines. Moreover, even if simple, the maintenance of such systems is labor intensive as it requires water to be topped-up periodically, mixing of the nutrients etc. To unlock the full potential of urban farming, a quantitative understanding of the role that each variable plays in the growth of the plants is needed, together with a higher degree of automation. The low-cost monitoring system proposed in this paper is a step toward filling this knowledge and technological gap, as it enables collection of sensor data related to water and air temperature, water level, humidity, pressure, light intensity, pH and electric conductivity without requiring any human intervention. More sensors and actuators can also easily be added thanks to the modular design of the proposed platform. Data can be accessed remotely via a simple web interface. The proposed platform can be used both for quantitatively optimizing the setup of the farms and for automating some of the most labor-intensive maintenance activities. Moreover, such monitoring system can also potentially be used for high-level decision making, once enough data are collected.

Keywords: Automation, hydroponics, internet of things, monitoring system, urban farming.

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1906 Automation of Web-Portal Construction Processes with SQL Server for the Black Sea Ecosystem Monitoring

Authors: Gia Surguladze, Nino Topuria, Ana Gavardashvili, Tsatsa Namchevadze

Abstract:

The present article discusses design and development of Information System for monitoring ecology within the Black Sea basin of Georgia. Sea parameters, river, estuary, vulnerable district, water sample, etc. were considered as the major parameters of the sea ecosystem. A conceptual schema has been developed for the Black Sea ecosystem based on object-role model. The experimental database for the Black Sea ecosystem has been constructed using Ms SQL Server, while the object-role model NORMA has been developed using graphical instrument Ms Visual Studio within the integrated environment of .NET Framework 4.5. Web portal has been designed based on Ms SharePoint Server. The server database connection with web-portal has been carried out by means of External List of Ms SharePoint Server Designer.

Keywords: Web-application, service-oriented architecture, database, object-role modelling, SharePoint, Black sea, river, estuary, ecology, monitoring system, automation of data processing.

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1905 Identifying Business Opportunities Based on Patent and Trademark Portfolios: A Technology-Based Service Industry Case

Authors: Mingook Lee, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

As technology-based service industries grow drastically worldwide; companies are recognizing the importance of market preoccupancy and have made an effort to capture a large market to gain the upper hand. To this end, a focus on patents can be used to determine the properties of a technology, as well as to capture advantages in technical skills, in comparison with the firm’s competitors. However, technology-based services largely depend not only on their technological value but also their economic value, due to the recognized worth that is passed to a plurality of users. Thus, it is important to determine whether there are any competitors in the target areas and what services they provide in any field. Despite this importance, little effort has been made to systematically benchmark competitors in order to identify business opportunities. Thus, this study aims to not only identify each position of technology-centered service companies in complex market dynamics, but also to discover new business opportunities. For this, we try to consider both technology and market environments simultaneously by utilizing patent data as a representative proxy for technology and trademark dates as an index for a firm’s target goods and services. Theoretically, this is one of the earliest attempts to combine patent data and trademark data to analyze corporate strategies. In practice, the research results are expected to be used as a decision criterion to diagnose the economic value that companies can obtain by entering the market, as well as the technological value to be passed onto their customers. Thus, the proposed approach can be useful to support effective technology and business strategies in a firm.

Keywords: Business opportunity, patent, Portfolio analysis, trademark.

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1904 Study of Landslide Behavior with Topographic Monitoring and Numerical Modeling

Authors: ZerarkaHizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

Abstract:

Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Equivalent deviatory strain, landslide, numerical modeling, topographic monitoring.

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1903 Runtime Monitoring Using Policy Based Approach to Control Information Flow for Mobile Apps

Authors: M. Sarrab, H. Bourdoucen

Abstract:

Mobile applications are verified to check the correctness or evaluated to check the performance with respect to specific security properties such as Availability, Integrity and Confidentiality. Where they are made available to the end users of the mobile application is achievable only to a limited degree using software engineering static verification techniques. The more sensitive the information, such as credit card data, personal medical information or personal emails being processed by mobile application, the more important it is to ensure the confidentiality of this information. Monitoring untrusted mobile application during execution in an environment where sensitive information is present is difficult and unnerving. The paper addresses the issue of monitoring and controlling the flow of confidential information during untrusted mobile application execution. The approach concentrates on providing a dynamic and usable information security solution by interacting with the mobile users during the runtime of mobile application in response to information flow events.

Keywords: Mobile application, Run-time verification, Usable security, Direct information flow.

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1902 State of Freelancing in IT and Future Trends

Authors: Mihai Gheorghe

Abstract:

Freelancing in IT has seen an increased popularity during the last years mainly because of the fast Internet adoption in the countries with emerging economies, correlated with the continuous seek for reduced development costs as well with the rise of online platforms which address planning, coordination and various development tasks. This paper conducts an overview of the most relevant Freelance Marketplaces available and studies the market structure, distribution of the workforce and trends in IT freelancing.

Keywords: Freelancing in IT, Freelance Marketplaces, Freelance Market Structure, Globalization, Online Staffing, Trends in Freelancing.

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1901 Technological Applications in Automobile Manufacturing Sector: A Case Study Analysis

Authors: Raja Kannusamy

Abstract:

The research focuses on the applicable technologies in the automobile industry and their effects on the productivity and annual revenue of the industry. A study has been conducted on six major automobile manufacturing industries represented in this research as M1, M2, M3, M4, M5 and M6. The results indicate that M1, which is a pioneer in technological applications, remains the market leader, followed by M5 and M2 taking the second and third positions, respectively. M3, M6 and M4 are the followers and are placed next in positions. It has also been observed that M1 and M2 have entered into an agreement to share the basic structural technologies and they maintain long-term and trusted relationships with their suppliers through the Keiretsu system. With technological giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Uber and Google entering the automobile industry in recent years, an upward trend is expected in the futuristic market with self-driving cars to dominate the automobile sector. To keep up with the market trend, it is essential for automobile manufacturers to understand the importance of developing technological capabilities and skills to be competitive in the marketplace.

Keywords: automobile manufacturing industries, competitiveness, performance improvement, technological applications

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1900 The Contribution of Edgeworth, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Data

Authors: Edlira Donefski, Tina Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi

Abstract:

Edgeworth Approximation, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Simulations have a considerable impact on the achieving certain results related to different problems taken into study. In our paper, we have treated a financial case related to the effect that have the components of a Cash-Flow of one of the most successful businesses in the world, as the financial activity, operational activity and investing activity to the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the three-months period. To have a better view of this case we have created a Vector Autoregression model, and after that we have generated the impulse responses in the terms of Asymptotic Analysis (Edgeworth Approximation), Monte Carlo Simulations and Residual Bootstrap based on the standard errors of every series created. The generated results consisted of the common tendencies for the three methods applied, that consequently verified the advantage of the three methods in the optimization of the model that contains many variants.

Keywords: Autoregression, Bootstrap, Edgeworth Expansion, Monte Carlo Method.

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1899 An Ontology for Investment in Chinese Steel Company

Authors: Liming Chen, Baoxin Xiu, Zhaoyun Ding, Bin Liu, Xianqiang Zhu

Abstract:

In the era of big data, public investors are faced with more complicated information related to investment decisions than ever before. To survive in the fierce competition, it has become increasingly urgent for investors to combine multi-source knowledge and evaluate the companies’ true value efficiently. For this, a rule-based ontology reasoning method is proposed to support steel companies’ value assessment. Considering the delay in financial disclosure and based on cost-benefit analysis, this paper introduces the supply chain enterprises financial analysis and constructs the ontology model used to value the value of steel company. In addition, domain knowledge is formally expressed with the help of Web Ontology Language (OWL) language and SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. Finally, a case study on a steel company in China proved the effectiveness of the method we proposed.

Keywords: Financial ontology, steel company, supply chain, ontology reasoning.

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1898 A Study on the Condition Monitoring of Transmission Line by On-line Circuit Parameter Measurement

Authors: Il Dong Kim, Jin Rak Lee, Young Jun Ko, Young Taek Jin

Abstract:

An on-line condition monitoring method for transmission line is proposed using electrical circuit theory and IT technology in this paper. It is reasonable that the circuit parameters such as resistance (R), inductance (L), conductance (g) and capacitance (C) of a transmission line expose the electrical conditions and physical state of the line. Those parameters can be calculated from the linear equation composed of voltages and currents measured by synchro-phasor measurement technique at both end of the line. A set of linear voltage drop equations containing four terminal constants (A, B ,C ,D ) are mathematical models of the transmission line circuits. At least two sets of those linear equations are established from different operation condition of the line, they may mathematically yield those circuit parameters of the line. The conditions of line connectivity including state of connecting parts or contacting parts of the switching device may be monitored by resistance variations during operation. The insulation conditions of the line can be monitored by conductance (g) and capacitance(C) measurements. Together with other condition monitoring devices such as partial discharge, sensors and visual sensing device etc.,they may give useful information to monitor out any incipient symptoms of faults. The prototype of hardware system has been developed and tested through laboratory level simulated transmission lines. The test has shown enough evident to put the proposed method to practical uses.

Keywords: Transmission Line, Condition Monitoring, Circuit Parameters, Synchro- phasor Measurement.

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1897 Neuro-Fuzzy Network Based On Extended Kalman Filtering for Financial Time Series

Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, financial time series.

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1896 Market and Innovation Orientation: A Typology of Public Housing Companies in Sweden

Authors: Agneta Sundström, Zahra Ahmadi, Akmal Hyder

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop a typology based on market orientation (MO) and innovation orientation (IO), and to illustrate to what extent housing companies in Sweden fit within this framework. A qualitative study on 11 public housing companies in the central part of Sweden has been conducted by the help of open and semi-structured questions for data collection. Four public housing company types- i.e. reactive prospector, proactive prospector, reactive defender and proactive defender have been identified by the combination of MO-IO dimensions. Future research can include other dimensions like entrepreneurship and network to observe how it particularly affects MO. An empirical study can compare public and private housing companies on the basis of MO and IO dimensions. One major contribution of the paper is the proposition of typology which can be used to describe public housing companies and deciding their future course of actions.

Keywords: Customer-led, economy, innovativeness, market orientation.

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1895 Formalizing a Procedure for Generating Uncertain Resource Availability Assumptions Based On Real Time Logistic Data Capturing with Auto-ID Systems for Reactive Scheduling

Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

Abstract:

As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focusses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: Auto-ID, Construction Logistic, Fuzzy, Monitoring, RFID, Scheduling.

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1894 Dynamic Process Monitoring of an Ammonia Synthesis Fixed-Bed Reactor

Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin

Abstract:

This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.

Keywords: Ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling.

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1893 Financial Burden of Family for the Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Authors: M. R. Bhuiyan, S. M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Islam

Abstract:

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is the fastest growing serious developmental disorder characterized by social deficits, communicative difficulties, and repetitive behaviors. ASD is an emerging public health issue globally which is associated with huge financial burden to the family, community and the nation. The aim of this study was to assess the financial burden of family for the children with Autism spectrum Disorder. This cross-sectional study was carried out from July 2015 to June 2016 among 154 children with ASD to assess the financial burden of family. Data were collected by face-to-face interview with semi-structured questionnaire following systematic random sampling technique. Majority (73.4%) children were male and mean (±SD) age was 6.66 ± 2.97 years. Most (88.8%) of the children were from urban areas with average monthly family income Tk. 41785.71±23936.45. Average monthly direct cost of the children was Tk.17656.49 ± 9984.35, while indirect cost was Tk. 13462.90 ± 9713.54 and total treatment cost was Tk. 23076.62 ± 15341.09. Special education cost (Tk. 4871.00), cost of therapy (Tk. 4124.07) and travel cost (Tk. 3988.31) were the major types of direct cost, while loss of income (Tk.14570.18) was the chief indirect cost incurred by the families. The study found that majority (59.8%) of the children attended special schools were incurred Tk.20001-78700 as total treatment cost, which were statistically significant (p<0.001). Again, families with higher monthly family income incurred higher treatment cost (r=0.526, p<0.05). Difference between mean direct and indirect cost was found significant (t=4.190, df=61, p<0.001). According to the analysis of variance, mean difference of father’s educational status among direct cost (F=10.337, p<0.001) and total treatment cost (F=7.841, p<0.001), which were statistically significant. The study revealed that maximum children with ASD were under five years, three-fourth were male. According to monthly family income, maximum family were in middle class. The study recommends cost effective interventions and financial safety-net measures to reduce the financial burden of families for the children with ASD.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, financial burden, direct cost, indirect cost, Special education.

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1892 The Impact of the Economic Crises over Management Marketing Strategies of Romanian B2B Companies

Authors: S. C. Căescu, I. Dumitru

Abstract:

The main objective of the paper has been represented by the identification of the changes that occurred in the competitive environment and their impact on the strategic marketing management of companies in B2B market. At Romania-s level there has not yet been done a similar research that studies change management in crises on business to business field. In order to answer to the paper-s objectives, a qualitative marketing research (in-depth structured interview) was conducted, within the top management of 27 companies in Romanian business to business field. The main results of the research highlight the necessity of a management of change, as a result of the crises, as follows: changes in the corporate objectives (from development objectives to maintaining objectives), changes market segmentation and in competitive advantages, changes at the level of market strategies and of the marketing mix.

Keywords: change management, competitive environment, marketing management strategies, strategic marketing.

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1891 Knowledge Based Model for Power Transformer Life Cycle Management Using Knowledge Engineering

Authors: S. S. Bhandari, N. Chakpitak, K. Meksamoot, T. Chandarasupsang

Abstract:

Under the limitation of investment budget, a utility company is required to maximize the utilization of their existing assets during their life cycle satisfying both engineering and financial requirements. However, utility does not have knowledge about the status of each asset in the portfolio neither in terms of technical nor financial values. This paper presents a knowledge based model for the utility companies in order to make an optimal decision on power transformer with their utilization. CommonKADS methodology, a structured development for knowledge and expertise representation, is utilized for designing and developing knowledge based model. A case study of One MVA power transformer of Nepal Electricity Authority is presented. The results show that the reusable knowledge can be categorized, modeled and utilized within the utility company using the proposed methodologies. Moreover, the results depict that utility company can achieve both engineering and financial benefits from its utilization.

Keywords: CommonKADS, Knowledge Engineering, LifeCycle Management, Power Transformer.

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1890 A Detection Method of Faults in Railway Pantographs Based on Dynamic Phase Plots

Authors: G. Santamato, M. Solazzi, A. Frisoli

Abstract:

Systems for detection of damages in railway pantographs effectively reduce the cost of maintenance and improve time scheduling. In this paper, we present an approach to design a monitoring tool fitting strong customer requirements such as portability and ease of use. Pantograph has been modeled to estimate its dynamical properties, since no data are available. With the aim to focus on suspensions health, a two Degrees of Freedom (DOF) scheme has been adopted. Parameters have been calculated by means of analytical dynamics. A Finite Element Method (FEM) modal analysis verified the former model with an acceptable error. The detection strategy seeks phase-plots topology alteration, induced by defects. In order to test the suitability of the method, leakage in the dashpot was simulated on the lumped model. Results are interesting because changes in phase plots are more appreciable than frequency-shift. Further calculations as well as experimental tests will support future developments of this smart strategy.

Keywords: Pantograph models, phase-plots, structural health monitoring, vibration-based condition monitoring.

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1889 The Sequential Estimation of the Seismoacoustic Source Energy in C-OTDR Monitoring Systems

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov

Abstract:

The practical efficient approach is suggested for estimation of the seismoacoustic sources energy in C-OTDR monitoring systems. This approach is represents the sequential plan for confidence estimation both the seismoacoustic sources energy, as well the absorption coefficient of the soil. The sequential plan delivers the non-asymptotic guaranteed accuracy of obtained estimates in the form of non-asymptotic confidence regions with prescribed sizes. These confidence regions are valid for a finite sample size when the distributions of the observations are unknown. Thus, suggested estimates are non-asymptotic and nonparametric, and also these estimates guarantee the prescribed estimation accuracy in form of prior prescribed size of confidence regions, and prescribed confidence coefficient value.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, guaranteed estimates, nonparametric estimation, sequential confidence estimation, multichannel monitoring systems.

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1888 TTCN-3 Based Conformance Testing of a Node Monitoring Protocol for MANETs

Authors: Mallikarjun B. Channappagoudar, Pallapa Venkataram

Abstract:

As a node monitoring protocol, which is a part of network management, operates in distributed manner, conformance testing of such protocols is more tedious than testing a peer-to-peer protocol. Various works carried out to give the methodology to do conformance testing of distributed protocol. In this paper, we have presented a formal approach for conformance testing of a Node Monitoring Protocol, which uses both static and mobile agents, for MANETs. First, we use SDL to obtain MSCs, which represent the scenario descriptions by sequence diagrams, which in turn generate test sequences and test cases. Later, Testing and Test Control Notation Version-3 (TTCN-3) is used to execute test cases with respect to generated test sequences to know the conformance of protocol against the given specification. This approach shows, the effective conformance testing of the distributed protocols for the network with varying node density and complex behavior. Experimental results for the protocol scenario represent the effectiveness of the method used.

Keywords: Conformance Testing, FSM, Mobile agent, TTCN, Test sequence.

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1887 System Reliability by Prediction of Generator Output and Losses in a Competitive Energy Market

Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri

Abstract:

In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.

Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.

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1886 Stock Market Prediction by Regression Model with Social Moods

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

Abstract:

This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.

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1885 A New Fuzzy DSS/ES for Stock Portfolio Selection using Technical and Fundamental Approaches in Parallel

Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

Abstract:

A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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1884 Emergence of New Capitalist Class and Issues of Market, Merit and Social Justice: The Business and Economics of Higher Education in India

Authors: Subramaniam Chandran

Abstract:

This paper analyses the structural changes in education sector since the introduction of liberalization policy in India. This paper explains how the so-called non-profit trusts and societies appropriated the liberalization policy and enhanced themselves as new capitalist class in higher education sector. Over the decades, the policy witnessed the role of private sector in terms of maintaining market equilibrium. The state also witnessed the incompatibility of the private sector in inculcating the values of social justice. The most important consequence of the policy is to witness the rise of new capitalist class and academic capitalism. When the state came to realize that it no longer cope up with market demands, it opens the entry of private sector in higher education. Concessions and tax exemptions were provided to the trusts and societies to establish higher education institutions. There is a basic difference between western countries and India in providing higher education by the trusts and societies. In western countries the big business houses contributed their surplus revenues to promote higher education and research as a complementary service to society and nation. In India, several entrepreneurs came up with business motive using education sector. Over the period, they accumulated wealth at the cost of students and concessions from the government. Four major results can now be identified: production of manpower in view of market demands; reduction of standards in higher education; bypassing the values of social justice; and the rise of new capitalist class from the business of education. This paper tries to substantiate these issues with the inputs from case studies.

Keywords: New capitalism, market, social justice, higher education

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1883 Vibration, Lubrication and Machinery Consideration for a Mixer Gearbox Related to Iran Oil Industries

Authors: Omid A. Zargar

Abstract:

In this paper, some common gearboxes vibration analysis methods and condition monitoring systems are explained. In addition, an experimental gearbox vibration analysis is discussed through a critical case history for a mixer gearbox related to Iran oil industry. The case history also consists of gear manufacturing (machining) recommendations, lubrication condition of gearbox and machinery maintenance activities that caused reduction in noise and vibration of the gearbox. Besides some of the recent patents and innovations in gearboxes, lubrication and vibration monitoring systems explained. Finally micro pitting and surface fatigue in pinion and bevel of mentioned horizontal to vertical gearbox discussed in details.

Keywords: Gear box, condition monitoring, time wave form (TWF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), gear mesh frequency (GMF), Shock Pulse measurement (SPM), bearing condition unit (BCU), pinion, bevel gear, micro pitting, surface fatigue.

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1882 Evaluation of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability as A Prediction Tool for Early Identification of Patient Deterioration

Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

Abstract:

Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: Clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring.

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1881 Greenhouse Micro Climate Monitoring Based On WSN with Smart Irrigation Technique

Authors: Mahmoud Shaker, Ala'a Imran

Abstract:

Greenhouse is a building, which provides controlled climate conditions to the plants to keep them from external hard conditions. Greenhouse technology gives freedom to the farmer to select any crop type in any time during year. The quality and productivity of plants inside greenhouse is highly dependent on the management quality and a good management scheme is defined by the quality of the information collected from the greenhouse environment. Therefore, Continuous monitoring of environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, and soil moisture gives information to the grower to better understand, how each factor affects growth and how to manage maximal crop productiveness. In this piper, we designed and implemented climate monitoring with irrigation control system based on Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) technology. The designed system is characterized with friendly to use, easy to install by any greenhouse user, multi-sensing nodes, multi-PAN ID, low cast, water irrigation control and low operation complexity. The system consists of two node types (sensing and control) with star topology on one PAN ID. Moreover, greenhouse manager can modifying system parameters such as (sensing node addresses, irrigation upper and lower control limits) by updating corresponding data in SDRAM memory. In addition, the designed system uses 2*16 characters. LCD to display the micro climate parameters values of each plants row inside the greenhouse.

Keywords: ZigBee, WSN, Arduino platform, Greenhouse automation, micro climate monitoring, smart Irrigation control.

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