Search results for: Classification and regression tree (CART)

Authors: Vadivel Ayyasamy

Abstract:

The present approach deals with the identification of Emotions and classification of Emotional patterns at Phrase-level with respect to Positive and Negative Orientation. The proposed approach considers emotion triggered terms, its co-occurrence terms and also associated sentences for recognizing emotions. The proposed approach uses Part of Speech Tagging and Emotion Actifiers for classification. Here sentence patterns are broken into phrases and Neuro-Fuzzy model is used to classify which results in 16 patterns of emotional phrases. Suitable intensities are assigned for capturing the degree of emotion contents that exist in semantics of patterns. These emotional phrases are assigned weights which supports in deciding the Positive and Negative Orientation of emotions. The approach uses web documents for experimental purpose and the proposed classification approach performs well and achieves good F-Scores.

Keywords: Emotions, sentences, phrases, classification, patterns, fuzzy, positive orientation, negative orientation.

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Authors: N. Samarinas, C. Evangelides, C. Vrekos

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The aim of this paper is the comparison of three different methods, in order to produce fuzzy tolerance relations for rainfall data classification. More specifically, the three methods are correlation coefficient, cosine amplitude and max-min method. The data were obtained from seven rainfall stations in the region of central Greece and refers to 20-year time series of monthly rainfall height average. Three methods were used to express these data as a fuzzy relation. This specific fuzzy tolerance relation is reformed into an equivalence relation with max-min composition for all three methods. From the equivalence relation, the rainfall stations were categorized and classified according to the degree of confidence. The classification shows the similarities among the rainfall stations. Stations with high similarity can be utilized in water resource management scenarios interchangeably or to augment data from one to another. Due to the complexity of calculations, it is important to find out which of the methods is computationally simpler and needs fewer compositions in order to give reliable results.

Keywords: Classification, fuzzy logic, tolerance relations, rainfall data.

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Authors: Hadi Sadoghi Yazdi, Tahereh Royani, Mehri Sadoghi Yazdi, Sohrab Effati

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In this paper, a new version of support vector regression (SVR) is presented namely Fuzzy Cost SVR (FCSVR). Individual property of the FCSVR is operation over fuzzy data whereas fuzzy cost (fuzzy margin and fuzzy penalty) are maximized. This idea admits to have uncertainty in the penalty and margin terms jointly. Robustness against noise is shown in the experimental results as a property of the proposed method and superiority relative conventional SVR.

Keywords: Support vector regression, Fuzzy input, Fuzzy cost.

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Authors: S. Chumkiew, W. Srisang, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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This work investigated the phenology of Parah tree (Elateriospermum tapos) using the General Purpose Atmosphere Plant Soil Simulator (GAPS model) to determine the amount of Plant Available Water (PAW) in the soil. We found the correlation between PAW and the timing of budburst and flower burst at Khao Nan National Park, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand. PAW from the GAPS model can be used as an indicator of soil water stress. The low amount of PAW may lead to leaf shedding in Parah trees.

Keywords: Basic GAPS, Parah (Elateriospermum tapos), Phenology, Climate, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.

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Authors: Sarah Beaver, Renee Bryce

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Audiograms detect hearing impairment, but missing values pose problems. This work explores imputations in an attempt to improve accuracy. This work implements Linear Regression, Lasso, Linear Support Vector Regression, Bayesian Ridge, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest machine learning techniques to impute audiogram frequencies ranging from 125 Hz to 8000 Hz. The data contain patients who had or were candidates for cochlear implants. Accuracy is compared across two different Nested Cross-Validation k values. Over 4000 audiograms were used from 800 unique patients. Additionally, training on data combines and compares left and right ear audiograms versus single ear side audiograms. The accuracy achieved using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from 4.74 to 6.37. The R2 values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from .91 to .96. The accuracy achieved using RMSE values for the best models for KNN ranges from 5.00 to 7.72. The R2 values for the best models for KNN ranges from .89 to .95. The best imputation models received R2 between .89 to .96 and RMSE values less than 8dB. We also show that the accuracy of classification predictive models performed better with our imputation models versus constant imputations by a two percent increase.

Keywords: Machine Learning, audiograms, data imputations, single imputations.

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Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

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The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: Landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate, Morocco.

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Authors: S. El Safty, A. El-Zonkoly

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The ability to detect and classify the type of fault plays a great role in the protection of power system. This procedure is required to be precise with no time consumption. In this paper detection of fault type has been implemented using wavelet analysis together with wavelet entropy principle. The simulation of power system is carried out using PSCAD/EMTDC. Different types of faults were studied obtaining various current waveforms. These current waveforms were decomposed using wavelet analysis into different approximation and details. The wavelet entropy of such decompositions is analyzed reaching a successful methodology for fault classification. The suggested approach is tested using different fault types and proven successful identification for the type of fault.

Keywords: Fault classification, wavelet transform, waveletentropy.

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Authors: First G.M. Karthik, Second Ramachandra.V.Pujeri, Dr.

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Generalized Center String (GCS) problem are generalized from Common Approximate Substring problem and Common substring problems. GCS are known to be NP-hard allowing the problems lies in the explosion of potential candidates. Finding longest center string without concerning the sequence that may not contain any motifs is not known in advance in any particular biological gene process. GCS solved by frequent pattern-mining techniques and known to be fixed parameter tractable based on the fixed input sequence length and symbol set size. Efficient method known as Bpriori algorithms can solve GCS with reasonable time/space complexities. Bpriori 2 and Bpriori 3-2 algorithm are been proposed of any length and any positions of all their instances in input sequences. In this paper, we reduced the time/space complexity of Bpriori algorithm by Constrained Based Frequent Pattern mining (CBFP) technique which integrates the idea of Constraint Based Mining and FP-tree mining. CBFP mining technique solves the GCS problem works for all center string of any length, but also for the positions of all their mutated copies of input sequence. CBFP mining technique construct TRIE like with FP tree to represent the mutated copies of center string of any length, along with constraints to restraint growth of the consensus tree. The complexity analysis for Constrained Based FP mining technique and Bpriori algorithm is done based on the worst case and average case approach. Algorithm's correctness compared with the Bpriori algorithm using artificial data is shown.

Keywords: Constraint Based Mining, FP tree, Data mining, GCS problem, CBFP mining technique.

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Authors: Niousha Bagheri Khulenjani, Mohammad Saniee Abadeh

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Learning from very big datasets is a significant problem for most present data mining and machine learning algorithms. MicroRNA (miRNA) is one of the important big genomic and non-coding datasets presenting the genome sequences. In this paper, a hybrid method for the classification of the miRNA data is proposed. Due to the variety of cancers and high number of genes, analyzing the miRNA dataset has been a challenging problem for researchers. The number of features corresponding to the number of samples is high and the data suffer from being imbalanced. The feature selection method has been used to select features having more ability to distinguish classes and eliminating obscures features. Afterward, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier for classification of cancer types is utilized, which employs a Genetic Algorithm to highlight optimized hyper-parameters of CNN. In order to make the process of classification by CNN faster, Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is recommended for calculating the mathematic equation in a parallel way. The proposed method is tested on a real-world dataset with 8,129 patients, 29 different types of tumors, and 1,046 miRNA biomarkers, taken from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database.

Keywords: Cancer classification, feature selection, deep learning, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Majid Abdolrazzagh-Nezhad, Salwani Abdullah

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The job-shop scheduling problem (JSSP) is an important decision facing those involved in the fields of industry, economics and management. This problem is a class of combinational optimization problem known as the NP-hard problem. JSSPs deal with a set of machines and a set of jobs with various predetermined routes through the machines, where the objective is to assemble a schedule of jobs that minimizes certain criteria such as makespan, maximum lateness, and total weighted tardiness. Over the past several decades, interest in meta-heuristic approaches to address JSSPs has increased due to the ability of these approaches to generate solutions which are better than those generated from heuristics alone. This article provides the classification, constraints and objective functions imposed on JSSPs that are available in the literature.

Keywords: Job-shop scheduling, classification, constraints, objective functions.

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Authors: Josu Arteche, Jesus Orbe

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The log periodogram regression is widely used in empirical applications because of its simplicity, since only a least squares regression is required to estimate the memory parameter, d, its good asymptotic properties and its robustness to misspecification of the short term behavior of the series. However, the asymptotic distribution is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution if the sample size is small. Here the finite sample performance of different nonparametric residual bootstrap procedures is analyzed when applied to construct confidence intervals. In particular, in addition to the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstrap that might adequately replicate the structure that may arise in the errors of the regression are considered when the series shows weak dependence in addition to the long memory component. Bias correcting bootstrap to adjust the bias caused by that structure is also considered. Finally, the performance of the bootstrap in log periodogram regression based confidence intervals is assessed in different type of models and how its performance changes as sample size increases.

Keywords: bootstrap, confidence interval, log periodogram regression, long memory.

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Authors: Rahma Al Maawali, Hameed Sulaiman

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Air pollution both from point and non-point sources is difficult to control once released in to the atmosphere. There is no engineering method known available to ameliorate the dispersed pollutants. The only suitable approach is the ecological method of constructing green belts in and around the pollution sources. Air pollution in Muscat, Oman is a serious concern due to ever increasing vehicles on roads. Identifying the air pollution tolerance levels of species is important for implementing pollution control strategies in the urban areas of Muscat. Hence, in the present study, Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) for ten avenue tree species was evaluated by analyzing four bio-chemical parameters, plus their Anticipated Performance Index (API) in field conditions. Based on the two indices, Ficus benghalensis was the most suitable one with the highest performance score. Conocarpus erectuse, Phoenix dactylifera, and Pithcellobium dulce were found to be good performers and are recommended for extensive planting. Azadirachta indica which is preferred for its dense canopy is qualified in the moderate category. The rest of the tree species expressed lower API score of less than 51, hence cannot be considered as suitable species for pollution mitigation plantation projects.

Keywords: Air pollution tolerance index, avenue tree species, bio-chemical parameters, Muscat.

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Authors: P. Visutsak

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The study of the interaction between humans and computers has been emerging during the last few years. This interaction will be more powerful if computers are able to perceive and respond to human nonverbal communication such as emotions. In this study, we present the image-based approach to emotion classification through lower facial expression. We employ a set of feature points in the lower face image according to the particular face model used and consider their motion across each emotive expression of images. The vector of displacements of all feature points input to the Adaptive Support Vector Machines (A-SVMs) classifier that classify it into seven basic emotions scheme, namely neutral, angry, disgust, fear, happy, sad and surprise. The system was tested on the Japanese Female Facial Expression (JAFFE) dataset of frontal view facial expressions [7]. Our experiments on emotion classification through lower facial expressions demonstrate the robustness of Adaptive SVM classifier and verify the high efficiency of our approach.

Keywords: emotion classification, facial expression, adaptive support vector machines, facial expression classifier.

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Authors: Xing Li, Chengqing Zong

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This paper presents an effective framework for Chinesesyntactic parsing, which includes two parts. The first one is a parsing framework, which is based on an improved bottom-up chart parsingalgorithm, and integrates the idea of the beam search strategy of N bestalgorithm and heuristic function of A* algorithm for pruning, then get multiple parsing trees. The second is a novel evaluation model, which integrates contextual and partial lexical information into traditional PCFG model and defines a new score function. Using this model, the tree with the highest score is found out as the best parsing tree. Finally,the contrasting experiment results are given. Keywords?syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

Keywords: syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

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Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

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This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease dataset, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: Lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, Ridge regression, Lasso Regression, elastic net regression.

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Sequences of words in text data have long-term dependencies and are known to suffer from vanishing gradient problem when developing deep learning models. Although recurrent networks such as long short-term memory networks help overcome this problem, achieving high text classification performance is a challenging problem. Convolutional recurrent networks that combine advantages of long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks, can be useful for text classification performance improvements. However, arriving at suitable hyperparameter values for convolutional recurrent networks is still a challenging task where fitting of a model requires significant computing resources. This paper illustrates the advantages of using convolutional recurrent networks for text classification with the help of statistically planned computer experiments for hyperparameter tuning. 

Keywords: Convolutional recurrent networks, hyperparameter tuning, long short-term memory networks, Tukey honest significant differences

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Authors: Ming-Hui Cheng, Jyh-Horng Jeng

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In this study, a classification-based video super-resolution method using artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed to enhance low-resolution (LR) to high-resolution (HR) frames. The proposed method consists of four main steps: classification, motion-trace volume collection, temporal adjustment, and ANN prediction. A classifier is designed based on the edge properties of a pixel in the LR frame to identify the spatial information. To exploit the spatio-temporal information, a motion-trace volume is collected using motion estimation, which can eliminate unfathomable object motion in the LR frames. In addition, temporal lateral process is employed for volume adjustment to reduce unnecessary temporal features. Finally, ANN is applied to each class to learn the complicated spatio-temporal relationship between LR and HR frames. Simulation results show that the proposed method successfully improves both peak signal-to-noise ratio and perceptual quality.

Keywords: Super-resolution, classification, spatio-temporal information, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, C. Ardil

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An effective approach for realizing the binary tree structure, representing a combinational logic functionality with enhanced throughput, is discussed in this paper. The optimization in maximum operating frequency was achieved through delay minimization, which in turn was possible by means of reducing the depth of the binary network. The proposed synthesis methodology has been validated by experimentation with FPGA as the target technology. Though our proposal is technology independent, yet the heuristic enables better optimization in throughput even after technology mapping for such Boolean functionality; whose reduced CNF form is associated with a lesser literal cost than its reduced DNF form at the Boolean equation level. For cases otherwise, our method converges to similar results as that of [12]. The practical results obtained for a variety of case studies demonstrate an improvement in the maximum throughput rate for Spartan IIE (XC2S50E-7FT256) and Spartan 3 (XC3S50-4PQ144) FPGA logic families by 10.49% and 13.68% respectively. With respect to the LUTs and IOBUFs required for physical implementation of the requisite non-regenerative logic functionality, the proposed method enabled savings to the tune of 44.35% and 44.67% respectively, over the existing efficient method available in literature [12].

Keywords: Binary logic tree, FPGA based design, Boolean function, Throughput rate, CNF, DNF.

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: Multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, Importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, Marginal likelihood evidence.

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Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

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In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, and hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: Landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity.

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Authors: Faisal Alshuwaier, Ali Areshey

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Text mining techniques are generally applied for classifying the text, finding fuzzy relations and structures in data sets. This research provides plenty text mining capabilities. One common application is text classification and event extraction, which encompass deducing specific knowledge concerning incidents referred to in texts. The main contribution of this paper is the clarification of a concept graph generation mechanism, which is based on a text classification and optimal fuzzy relationship extraction. Furthermore, the work presented in this paper explains the application of fuzzy relationship extraction and branch and bound (BB) method to simplify the texts.

Keywords: Extraction, Max-Prod, Fuzzy Relations, Text Mining, Memberships, Classification.

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Authors: Francesco Maiorana

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In this paper a one-dimension Self Organizing Map algorithm (SOM) to perform feature selection is presented. The algorithm is based on a first classification of the input dataset on a similarity space. From this classification for each class a set of positive and negative features is computed. This set of features is selected as result of the procedure. The procedure is evaluated on an in-house dataset from a Knowledge Discovery from Text (KDT) application and on a set of publicly available datasets used in international feature selection competitions. These datasets come from KDT applications, drug discovery as well as other applications. The knowledge of the correct classification available for the training and validation datasets is used to optimize the parameters for positive and negative feature extractions. The process becomes feasible for large and sparse datasets, as the ones obtained in KDT applications, by using both compression techniques to store the similarity matrix and speed up techniques of the Kohonen algorithm that take advantage of the sparsity of the input matrix. These improvements make it feasible, by using the grid, the application of the methodology to massive datasets.

Keywords: Clustering algorithm, Data mining, Feature selection, Grid, Kohonen Self Organizing Map.

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Authors: Guruprasad Khataniar, Hitesh Tahbildar, Prakriti Prava Das

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There are various overlay structures that provide efficient and scalable solutions for point and range query in a peer-topeer network. Overlay structure based on m-Binary Search Tree (BST) is one such popular technique. It deals with the division of the tree into different key intervals and then assigning the key intervals to a BST. The popularity of the BST makes this overlay structure vulnerable to different kinds of attacks. Here we present four such possible attacks namely index poisoning attack, eclipse attack, pollution attack and syn flooding attack. The functionality of BST is affected by these attacks. We also provide different security techniques that can be applied against these attacks.

Keywords: BST, eclipse attack, index poisoning attack, pollution attack, syn flooding attack.

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Authors: Mohamed Mounir Tellache, Hiroyuki Kambara, Yasuharu Koike, Makoto Miyakoshi, Natsue Yoshimura

Abstract:

This study explores the practicality of using electroencephalographic (EEG) independent components to predict eight-direction finger movements in pseudo-real-time. Six healthy participants with individual-head MRI images performed finger movements in eight directions with two different arm configurations. The analysis was performed in two stages. The first stage consisted of using independent component analysis (ICA) to separate the signals representing brain activity from non-brain activity signals and to obtain the unmixing matrix. The resulting independent components (ICs) were checked, and those reflecting brain-activity were selected. Finally, the time series of the selected ICs were used to predict eight finger-movement directions using Sparse Logistic Regression (SLR). The second stage consisted of using the previously obtained unmixing matrix, the selected ICs, and the model obtained by applying SLR to classify a different EEG dataset. This method was applied to two different settings, namely the single-participant level and the group-level. For the single-participant level, the EEG dataset used in the first stage and the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the same participant. For the group-level, the EEG datasets used in the first stage were constructed by temporally concatenating each combination without repetition of the EEG datasets of five participants out of six, whereas the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the remaining participants. The average test classification results across datasets (mean ± S.D.) were 38.62 ± 8.36% for the single-participant, which was significantly higher than the chance level (12.50 ± 0.01%), and 27.26 ± 4.39% for the group-level which was also significantly higher than the chance level (12.49% ± 0.01%). The classification accuracy within [–45°, 45°] of the true direction is 70.03 ± 8.14% for single-participant and 62.63 ± 6.07% for group-level which may be promising for some real-life applications. Clustering and contribution analyses further revealed the brain regions involved in finger movement and the temporal aspect of their contribution to the classification. These results showed the possibility of using the ICA-based method in combination with other methods to build a real-time system to control prostheses.

Keywords: Brain-computer interface, BCI, electroencephalography, EEG, finger motion decoding, independent component analysis, pseudo-real-time motion decoding.

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Authors: T. Anbu, K. Aravind Kumar

Abstract:

The road environment information is needed accurately for applications such as road maintenance and virtual 3D city modeling. Mobile laser scanning (MLS) produces dense point clouds from huge areas efficiently from which the road and its environment can be modeled in detail. Objects such as buildings, cars and trees are an important part of road environments. Different methods have been developed for detection of above such objects, but still there is a lack of accuracy due to the problems of illumination, environmental changes, and multiple objects with same features. In this work the comparison between different classifiers such as Multiclass SVM, kNN and Multiclass LDA for the road environment detection is analyzed. Finally the classification accuracy for kNN with LBP feature improved the classification accuracy as 93.3% than the other classifiers.

Keywords: Classifiers, feature extraction, mobile-based laser scanning, object location estimation.

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Authors: N. Muthukumaran, R. Ravi

Abstract:

The Quad Tree Decomposition based performance analysis of compressed image data communication for lossy and lossless through wireless sensor network is presented. Images have considerably higher storage requirement than text. While transmitting a multimedia content there is chance of the packets being dropped due to noise and interference. At the receiver end the packets that carry valuable information might be damaged or lost due to noise, interference and congestion. In order to avoid the valuable information from being dropped various retransmission schemes have been proposed. In this proposed scheme QTD is used. QTD is an image segmentation method that divides the image into homogeneous areas. In this proposed scheme involves analysis of parameters such as compression ratio, peak signal to noise ratio, mean square error, bits per pixel in compressed image and analysis of difficulties during data packet communication in Wireless Sensor Networks. By considering the above, this paper is to use the QTD to improve the compression ratio as well as visual quality and the algorithm in MATLAB 7.1 and NS2 Simulator software tool.

Keywords: Image compression, Compression Ratio, Quad tree decomposition, Wireless sensor networks, NS2 simulator.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

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recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: A. Bekbaev, M. Dzhamanbaev, R. Abitaeva, A. Karbozova, G. Nabyeva

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In this paper, the regression dependence of dancing intensity from wind speed and length of span was established due to the statistic data obtained from multi-year observations on line wires dancing accumulated by power systems of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. The lower and upper limitations of the equations parameters were estimated, as well as the adequacy of the regression model. The constructed model will be used in research of dancing phenomena for the development of methods and means of protection against dancing and for zoning plan of the territories of line wire dancing.

Keywords: Power lines, line wire dancing, dancing intensity, regression equation, dancing area intensity.

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Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

Abstract:

Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: Time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure machine learning.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

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This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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