Search results for: price forecast

Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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Authors: Jinhwan Yu, Jooyeon Yook

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After Apple's first introduction its smart phone, iPhone in the end of 2009 in Korea, the number of Korean smarphone users had been rapidly increasing so that the half of Korean population became smart phone users as of February, 2012. Currently, smart phones are positioned as a major digital media with powerful influences in Korea. And, now, Koreans are leaning new information, enjoying games and communicating other people every time and everywhere. As smart phone devices' performances increased, the number of usable services became more while adequate GUI developments are required to implement various functions with smart phones. The strategy to provide similar experiences on smart phones through familiar features based on employment of existing media's functions mostly contributed to smart phones' popularization in connection with smart phone devices' iconic GUIs. The spread of Smart phone increased mobile web accesses. Therefore, the attempts to implement PC's web in the smart phone's web are continuously made. The mobile web GUI provides familiar experiences to users through designs adequately utilizing the smart phone's GUIs. As the number of users familiarized to smart phones and mobile web GUIs, opposite to reversed remediation from many parts of PCs, PCs are starting to adapt smart phone GUIs. This study defines this phenomenon as the reversed remediation, and reviews the reversed remediation cases of Smart phone GUI' characteristics of PCs. For this purpose, the established study issues are as under: · what is the reversed remediation? · what are the smart phone GUI's characteristics? · what kind of interrelationship exist s between the smart phone and PC's web site? It is meaningful in the forecast of the future GUI's change by understanding of characteristics in the paradigm changes of PC and smart phone's GUI designs. This also will be helpful to establish strategies for digital devices' development and design.

Keywords: Graphic User Interface, Remediation, Smart Phone, South Korea, Web Site

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Authors: Ornst J., Voracek J., Allouache A., Allouache D.

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Lack of resources for road infrastructure financing is a problem that currently affects not only eastern European economies but also many other countries especially in relation to the impact of global financial crisis. In this context, we are talking about the socalled short-investment problem as a result of long-term lack of investment resources. Based on an analysis of road infrastructure financing in the Czech Republic this article points out at weaknesses of current system and proposes a long-term planning methodology supported by system approach. Within this methodology and using created system dynamic model the article predicts the development of short-investment problem in the Country and in reaction on the downward trend of certain sources the article presents various scenarios resulting from the change of the structure of financial sources. In the discussion the article focuses more closely on the possibility of introduction of tax on vehicles instead of taxes with declining revenue streams and estimates its approximate price in relation to reaching various solutions of short-investment in time.

Keywords: Road financing, road infrastructure development, system dynamics

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Authors: Hamed Homaei, Iraj Mahdavi, Ali Tajdin

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One of the main concerns of miners is to increase the quality level of their products because the mining metals price depends on their quality level; however, increasing the quality level of these products has different costs at different levels of the supply chain. These costs usually increase after extractor level. This paper studies the coordination issue of a decentralized three-level supply chain with one supplier (extractor), one mineral processor and one manufacturer in which the increasing product quality level cost at the processor level is higher than the supplier and at the level of the manufacturer is more than the processor. We identify the optimal product quality level for each supply chain member by designing a revenue sharing contract. Finally, numerical examples show that the designed contract not only increases the final product quality level but also provides a win-win condition for all supply chain members and increases the whole supply chain profit.

Keywords: Three-stage supply chain, product quality improvement, channel coordination, revenue sharing.

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Authors: Salah Alrabeei, Mohammad Yousuf

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The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial future by theoretically valuing their options. However, most of the option pricing models have no analytical solution. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this paper, we solve the American option under jump diffusion models by using efficient time-dependent numerical methods. several techniques are integrated to reduced the overcome the computational complexity. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM). Partial fraction decomposition technique is applied to rational approximation schemes to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices. The proposed method is easy to implement on serial or parallel versions. Numerical results are presented to prove the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Integral differential equations, American options, jump–diffusion model, rational approximation.

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Authors: Gee-Sern Jison Hsu

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A fusion classifier composed of two modules, one made by a hidden Markov model (HMM) and the other by a support vector machine (SVM), is proposed to recognize faces with pose variations in open-set recognition settings. The HMM module captures the evolution of facial features across a subject-s face using the subject-s facial images only, without referencing to the faces of others. Because of the captured evolutionary process of facial features, the HMM module retains certain robustness against pose variations, yielding low false rejection rates (FRR) for recognizing faces across poses. This is, however, on the price of poor false acceptance rates (FAR) when recognizing other faces because it is built upon withinclass samples only. The SVM module in the proposed model is developed following a special design able to substantially diminish the FAR and further lower down the FRR. The proposed fusion classifier has been evaluated in performance using the CMU PIE database, and proven effective for open-set face recognition with pose variations. Experiments have also shown that it outperforms the face classifier made by HMM or SVM alone.

Keywords: Face recognition, open-set identification, hidden Markov model, support vector machines.

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Authors: Yoke-Mui Lim, Yahaya Ahmad

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Conservation works in Malaysia that is procured by public organisation usually follow the traditional approach where the works are tendered based on Bills of Quantities (BQ). One of the purposes of tendering is to enable the selection of a competent contractor that offers a competitive price. While competency of the contractors are assessed by their technical knowledge, experience and track records, the assessment of pricing will be dependent on the tender amount. However, the issue currently faced by the conservation works sector is the difficulty in assessing the competitiveness and reasonableness of the tender amount due to the high variance between the tenders amount. Thus, this paper discusses the factors that cause difficulty to the tenderers in pricing competitively in a bidding exercise for conservation tenders. Data on tendering is collected from interviews with conservation works contractors to gain in-depth understanding of the barriers faced in pricing tenders of conservation works. Findings from the study lent support to the contention that the variance of tender amount is very high amongst tenderers. The factors identified in the survey are the format of BQ, hidden works, experience and labour and material costs.

Keywords: Building Conservation, Malaysia, Bill of Quantities, Tender.

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Authors: Xinyuan Jiang, Genan Li, Zhiping Wu

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Calcium magnesium acetate (CMA) is environmentally benign deicing chemicals that can replace sodium chloride that is widely used on roads and highways at present for snow and ice control to provide safe driving conditions during winter. The price of CMA from petroleum-derived acetic acid is quite expensive. The bamboo vinegar is the by-product from bamboo charcoal production. The bamboo vinegar was used to prepare calcium acetate as raw materials, and its deicing and corrosive performances were studied in this paper. The results show that the freezing temperature of calcium acetate is lower than that of sodium chloride when they have same molar concentration, the deicing performance of calcium acetate is better than that of sodium chloride when they have same moles, while the deicing performance of sodium chloride is better than that of calcium acetate. The corrosion of sodium chloride on iron-nail and steel-nail is larger than that of calcium acetate whether they have same mass concentration or same molar concentration, and the corrosion of sodium chloride and calcium acetate on iron-nail is larger than that on steel-nail, and calcium acetate almost hasn't corrosion on steel-nail.

Keywords: bamboo vinegar, calcium acetate, corrosion, deicer, deicing performance

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Authors: Francisco Ben, Tracey Price, Chad Morrison, Victoria Warren, Willy Gollan, Robyn Dunbar, Frank Davies, Mark Sorrell

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This paper focuses particularly on the educational aspects that contribute to the overall educational satisfaction rated by Tabor School of Education students who participated in the Australasian Survey of Student Engagement (AUSSE) conducted by the Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) in 2010, 2012 and 2013. In all three years of participation, Tabor ranked first especially in the area of overall student satisfaction. By using a single level path analysis in relation to the AUSSE datasets collected using the Student Engagement Questionnaire (SEQ) for Tabor School of Education, seven aspects that contribute to overall student satisfaction have been identified. There appears to be a direct causal link between aspects of the Supportive Learning Environment, Work Integrated Learning, Career Readiness, Academic Challenge, and overall educational satisfaction levels. A further three aspects, being Student and Staff Interactions, Active Learning, and Enriching Educational Experiences, indirectly influence overall educational satisfaction levels.

Keywords: Tertiary student satisfaction, tertiary educational experience, pre-service teacher education, path analysis.

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.

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Authors: Somdech Rungsrisawat

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The purpose of this research is to study of consumer perception and understanding consumer buying behavior that related between satisfied and factors affecting the purchasing. Methodology can be classified between qualitative and quantitative approaches for the qualitative research were interviews from middlemen who bought organic vegetables, and middlemen related to production and marketing system. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The result show the reason to decision buying motives is Fresh products of organic vegetables is the most significant factor on individuals’ income, with a b of –.143, t = –2.470, the price of organic vegetables is the most significant factor on individuals’ income, with a b of .176, t = 2.561, p value = .011. The results show that most people with higher income think about the organic products are expensive and have negative attitudes towards organic vegetable as individuals with low and medium income level. Therefore, household income had a significant influence on the purchasing decision.

Keywords: Consumer behaviors, Consumer perceptions, Organic Vegetable.

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Authors: Hu-Hsiao Hsu, Po-Ren Chung, Ming-Chin Ho, Chieh-Feng Tsai, Che-Ming Chiang, Shin-Ku Lee

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Lighting upgrades involve relatively lower costs which allow the benefits to be spread more widely than is possible with any other energy efficiency measure. In order to popularize the adoption of CFL in Taiwan, the authority proposes to implement a new energy efficient lamp comparative label system. The current study was accordingly undertaken to investigate the factors affecting the performance and the deviation of actual and labeled performance of commercially available integrated CFLs. In this paper, standard test methods to determine the electrical and photometric performances of CFL were developed based on CIE 84-1989 and CIE 60901-1987, then 55 selected CFLs from market were tested. The results show that with higher color temperature of CFLs lower efficacy are achieved. It was noticed that the most packaging of CFL often lack the information of Color Rendering Index. Also, there was no correlation between price and performance of the CFLs was indicated in this work. The results of this paper might help consumers to make more informed CFL-purchasing decisions.

Keywords: Compact fluorescent lamp (CFL), Efficacy, Color Rendering Index (CRI), Energy saving.

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Authors: Fuyang Peng, Donghong Li

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The aim of information systems integration is to make all the data sources, applications and business flows integrated into the new environment so that unwanted redundancies are reduced and bottlenecks and mismatches are eliminated. Two issues have to be dealt with to meet such requirements: the software architecture that supports resource integration, and the adaptor development tool that help integration and migration of legacy applications. In this paper, a service-enabled dependable integration environment (SDIE), is presented, which has two key components, i.e., a dependable service integration platform and a legacy application integration tool. For the dependable platform for service integration, the service integration bus, the service management framework, the dependable engine for service composition, and the service registry and discovery components are described. For the legacy application integration tool, its basic organization, functionalities and dependable measures taken are presented. Due to its service-oriented integration model, the light-weight extensible container, the service component combination-oriented p-lattice structure, and other features, SDIE has advantages in openness, flexibility, performance-price ratio and feature support over commercial products, is better than most of the open source integration software in functionality, performance and dependability support.

Keywords: Application integration, dependability, legacy, SOA.

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Authors: Thet Thet Han Yee, Su Su Win, Nyein Nyein Soe

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Energy consumption is one of the indices in determining the levels of development of a nation. Therefore, availability of energy supply to all sectors of life in any country is crucial for its development. These exists shortage of all kinds of energy, particularly electricity which is badly needed for economic development. Electricity from the sun which is quite abundant in most of the developing countries is used in rural areas to meet basic electricity needs of a rural community. Today-s electricity supply in Myanmar is generated by fuel generators and hydroelectric power plants. However, far-flung areas which are away from National Grids cannot enjoy the electricity generated by these sources. Since Myanmar is a land of plentiful sunshine, especially in central and southern regions of the country, the first form of energy- solar energy could hopefully become the final solution to its energy supply problem. The direct conversion of solar energy into electricity using photovoltaic system has been receiving intensive installation not only in developed countries but also in developing countries. It is mainly intended to present solar energy potential and application in Myanmar. It is also wanted to get the benefits of using solar energy for people in remote areas which are not yet connected to the national grids because of the high price of fossil fuel.

Keywords: Electricity supply in Myanmar, National Grids, solarenergy.

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

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The objective of this research was to study the influence of marketing mix on customers purchasing behavior. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who were the patronages of the Chatuchak Plaza market. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The research analysis disclosed that there were three variables of marketing mix which included price (X2), place (X3), and product (X1) which had an influence on the frequency of customer purchasing. These three variables can predict a purchase about 30 percent of the time by using the equation; Y1 = 6.851 + .921(X2) + .949(X3) + .591(X1). It also found that in terms of marketing mixed, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of customer purchasing which were physical characteristic (X6), and the process (X7). These two variables are 17 percent predictive of a purchasing by using the equation: Y2 = 2276.88 + 2980.97(X6) + 2188.09(X7).

Keywords: Influences, Marketing Mixed, Purchasing Behavior.

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Authors: J. Arneric, E. Jurun, L. Kordic

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This paper deals with econometric analysis of real retail trade turnover. It is a part of an extensive scientific research about modern trends in Croatian national economy. At the end of the period of transition economy, Croatia confronts with challenges and problems of high consumption society. In such environment as crucial economic variables: real retail trade turnover, average monthly real wages and household loans are chosen for consequence analysis. For the purpose of complete procedure of multiple econometric analysis data base adjustment has been provided. Namely, it has been necessary to deflate original national statistics data of retail trade turnover using consumer price indices, as well as provide process of seasonally adjustment of its contemporary behavior. In model establishment it has been necessary to involve the overcoming procedure for the autocorrelation and colinearity problems. Moreover, for case of time-series shift a specific appropriate econometric instrument has been applied. It would be emphasize that the whole methodology procedure is based on the real Croatian national economy time-series.

Keywords: Consumption society, multiple econometric model, real retail trade turnover, second order autocorrelation.

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Authors: S. Alotaibi, S. Omer, Y. Su

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The conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) based vehicles are a threat to the environment as they account for a large proportion of the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the world. Hence, it is required to replace these vehicles with more environment-friendly vehicles. Electric Vehicles (EVs) are promising technologies which offer both human comfort “noise, pollution” as well as reduced (or no) emissions of GHGs. In this paper, different types of EVs are reviewed and their advantages and disadvantages are identified. It is found that in terms of fuel economy, Plug-in Hybrid EVs (PHEVs) have the best fuel economy, followed by Hybrid EVs (HEVs) and ICE vehicles. Since Battery EVs (BEVs) do not use any fuel, their fuel economy is estimated as price per kilometer. Similarly, in terms of GHG emissions, BEVs are the most environmentally friendly since they do not result in any emissions while HEVs and PHEVs produce less emissions compared to the conventional ICE based vehicles. Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs) are also zero-emission vehicles, but they have large costs associated with them. Finally, if the electricity is provided by using the renewable energy technologies through grid connection, then BEVs could be considered as zero emission vehicles.

Keywords: Electric vehicle, fuel cell electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle, internal combustion engine.

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Authors: Sinee Sankrusme

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The study was a case study analysis about Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company. The purpose was to analyze the company’s marketing objective, marketing strategy at company level, and marketing mix before liquor liberalization in 2000. Methods used in this study were qualitative and descriptive research approach which demonstrated the following results of the study demonstrated as follows: (1) Marketing objective was to increase market share of Heineken and Amtel, (2) the company’s marketing strategies were brand building strategy and distribution strategy. Additionally, the company also conducted marketing mix strategy as follows. Product strategy: The company added more beer brands namely Amstel and Tiger to provide additional choice to consumers, product and marketing research, and product development. Price strategy: the company had taken the following into consideration: cost, competitor, market, economic situation and tax. Promotion strategy: the company conducted sales promotion and advertising. Distribution strategy: the company extended channels its channels of distribution into food shops, pubs and various entertainment places. This strategy benefited interested persons and people who were engaged in the beer business.

Keywords: Marketing Strategy, Beer, Thai Asia Pacific Brewery Company.

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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Authors: Kitti Koonsanit, Chuleerat Jaruskulchai, Poonsak Miphokasap, Apisit Eiumnoh

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In the end of the day, meteorological data and environmental data becomes widely used such as plant varieties selection system. Variety plant selection for planted area is of almost importance for all crops, including varieties of sugarcane. Since sugarcane have many varieties. Variety plant non selection for planting may not be adapted to the climate or soil conditions for planted area. Poor growth, bloom drop, poor fruit, and low price are to be from varieties which were not recommended for those planted area. This paper presents plant varieties selection system for planted areas in Thailand from meteorological data and environmental data by the use of decision tree techniques. With this software developed as an environmental data analysis tool, it can analyze resulting easier and faster. Our software is a front end of WEKA that provides fundamental data mining functions such as classify, clustering, and analysis functions. It also supports pre-processing, analysis, and decision tree output with exporting result. After that, our software can export and display data result to Google maps API in order to display result and plot plant icons effectively.

Keywords: Plant varieties selection system, decision tree, expert recommendation.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: A. Badri

Abstract:

Restructured electricity markets may provide opportunities for producers to exercise market power maintaining prices in excess of competitive levels. In this paper an oligopolistic market is presented that all Generation Companies (GenCos) bid in a Cournot model. Genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to obtain generation scheduling of each GenCo as well as hourly market clearing prices (MCP). In order to consider network constraints a multiperiod framework is presented to simulate market clearing mechanism in which the behaviors of market participants are modelled through piecewise block curves. A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) is employed to solve the problem. Impacts of market clearing process on participants- characteristic and final market prices are presented. Consequently, a novel multi-objective model is addressed for security constrained optimal bidding strategy of GenCos. The capability of price-maker GenCos to alter MCP is evaluated through introducing an effective-supply curve. In addition, the impact of exercising market power on the variation of market characteristics as well as GenCos scheduling is studied.

Keywords: Optimal bidding strategy, Cournot equilibrium, market power, network constraints, market auction mechanism

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Authors: M. Ahmadi Baseri, R. Mokhtari Malekabadi, A. Gandomkar

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Cities expansion, urban travels increase, the technology development, the automobile price cheapen, and the families' income ascending cause the considerable increase in automobile numbers of the city. This fact has led to the traffic creation and the automobile parking site shortage in the city. Also in Esfahan metropolis, the parking lots shortage has been the great problem of this town; in addition, in designing and constructing of the parking sites the traditional methods are utilized which do not have a reasonable and optimized usage of the valuable urban lands. In this article, by introducing the prefabricate mechanized parking system which is inexpensive, simple and quick, and occupies very small space, therefore provides the high content of parking site for the cities, we can eliminate the parking space shortage difficulty of the cities. The achieved results of this research represent that an optimized utilization of the existent urban spaces for parking site construction has not been accomplished. By employing the new parking site technologies such as mechanization categorized parking sites and the capacity prefabricate mechanized of each parking space have become 8 multiples; in this case, the valuable urban lands can be used in an optimized way.

Keywords: Public parking sites, New parking sites technologies, Prefabricate mechanized parking site, Isfahan City.

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Authors: Salfarina A.G., Nor Malina M., Azrina H.

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The right to housing is a basic need while good quality and affordable housing is a reflection of a high quality of life. However, housing remains a major problem for most, especially for the bottom billions. Satisfaction on housing and neighbourhood conditions are one of the important indicators that reflect quality of life. These indicators are also important in the process of evaluating housing policy with the objective to increase the quality of housing and neighbourhood. The research method is purely based on a quantitative method, using a survey. The findings show that housing purchasing trend in urban Malaysia is determined by demographic profiles, mainly by education level, age, gender and income. The period of housing ownership also influenced the socio-cultural interactions and satisfaction of house owners with their neighbourhoods. The findings also show that the main concerns for house buyers in urban areas are price and location of the house. Respondents feel that houses in urban Malaysia is too expensive and beyond their affordability. Location of houses and distance from work place are also regarded as the main concern. However, respondents are fairly satisfied with religious and socio-cultural facilities in the housing areas and most importantly not many regard ethnicity as an issue in their decision-making, when buying a house.

Keywords: Housing, Urban Housing, Malaysia

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Authors: Shyh-Ming Chern, Wei-Ling Lin

Abstract:

Lignin is a major constituent of woody biomass, and exists abundantly in nature. It is the major byproducts from the paper industry and bioethanol production processes. The byproducts are mainly used for low-valued applications. Instead, lignin can be converted into higher-valued gaseous fuel, thereby helping to curtail the ever-growing price of oil and to slow down the trend of global warming. Although biochemical treatment is capable of converting cellulose into liquid ethanol fuel, it cannot be applied to the conversion of lignin. Alternatively, it is possible to convert lignin into gaseous fuel thermochemically. In the present work, trans-4-hydroxycinnamic acid, a model compound for lignin, which closely resembles the basic building blocks of lignin, is gasified in an autoclave with ethanol at elevated temperatures and pressures, that are above the critical point of ethanol. Ethanol, instead of water, is chosen, because ethanol dissolves trans-4-hydroxycinnamic acid easily and helps to convert it into lighter gaseous species relatively well. The major operating parameters for the gasification reaction include temperature (673-873 K), reaction pressure (5-25 MPa) and feed concentration (0.05-0.3 M). Generally, more than 80% of the reactant, including trans-4-hydroxycinnamic acid and ethanol, were converted into gaseous products at an operating condition of 873 K and 5 MPa.

Keywords: Ethanol, gasification, lignin, supercritical.

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Authors: Meng-Jen Chen, Yu-Chi Wu, Guo-Tsai Liu, Sen-Feng Lin

Abstract:

With continuous rise of oil price, how to develop alternative energy source has become a hot topic around the world. This study discussed the dynamic characteristics of an island power system operating under random wind speed lower than nominal wind speeds of wind turbines. The system primarily consists of three diesel engine power generation systems, three constant-speed variable-pitch wind turbines, a small hydraulic induction generation system, and lumped static loads. Detailed models based on Matlab/Simulink were developed to cater for the dynamic behavior of the system. The results suggested this island power system can operate stably in this operational mode. This study can serve as an important reference for planning, operation, and further expansion of island power systems.

Keywords: Diesel engine power generation system, constant-speed variable-pitch wind turbine, small hydraulic induction generation system, penetration, Matlab/Simulink, SimPowerSystems.

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Authors: Fatemeh Afsharnia, Mohammad Amin Asoodar, Abbas Abdeshahi, Afshin Marzban

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A repairable mechanical system (as agricultural tractor) is subject to deterioration or repeated failure and needs a repair shops and also operator’s capability for the repair and maintenance operations. Data are based on field visits and interviews with 48MF 285 tractor operators from 14 villages collected in north of Khouzestan province. The results showed that most operators were lack the technical skill to service and repair tractors due to insufficient training, specific education and work experience. Inadequate repair and maintenance facilities, such as workshops, mechanics and spare parts depots cause delays in repair work in the survey areas. Farmers do not keep accurate service records and most of them disregard proper maintenance and service of their tractors, such as changing engine oil without following the manufacturer’s recommendations. Since, Repair and maintenance facilities should be established in village areas to guarantee timely repair in case of breakdowns and to make spare parts available at low price. The operators should keep service records accurately and adhere to maintenance and service schedules according to the manufacturer’s instructions. They should also be encouraged to do the service and maintain their tractors properly.

Keywords: Operators’ capability, Facilities availability, Repair and maintenance, MF 285 tractors.

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Authors: Jipeng Yan, Xingchen Yang, Xiaowei Zhou, Mengxing Tang, Honghai Liu

Abstract:

Shear elastic modulus of skeletal muscles can be obtained by shear wave elastography (SWE) and has been linearly related to muscle force. However, SWE is currently implemented using array probes. Price and volumes of these probes and their driving equipment prevent SWE from being used in wearable human-machine interfaces (HMI). Moreover, beamforming processing for array probes reduces the real-time performance. To achieve SWE by wearable HMIs, a customized three-element probe is adopted in this work, with one element for acoustic radiation force generation and the others for shear wave tracking. In-phase quadrature demodulation and 2D autocorrelation are adopted to estimate velocities of tissues on the sound beams of the latter two elements. Shear wave speeds are calculated by phase shift between the tissue velocities. Three agar phantoms with different elasticities were made by changing the weights of agar. Values of the shear elastic modulus of the phantoms were measured as 8.98, 23.06 and 36.74 kPa at a depth of 7.5 mm respectively. This work verifies the feasibility of measuring shear elastic modulus by wearable devices.

Keywords: Shear elastic modulus, skeletal muscle, ultrasound, wearable human-machine interface.

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Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: Jamaa Salih, Francis Edum-Fotwe, Andrew Price

Abstract:

One of the most critical aspects of the management of road infrastructure is the type and scale of maintenance systems adopted and the consequences of their inadequacy. The performance of road maintenance systems can be assessed by a number of important indicators such as: cost, safety, environmental impact, and level of complaints by users. A review of practice reveals that insufficient level of expenditure or poor management of the road network often has serious consequences for the economic and social life of a country in terms of vehicle operating costs (VOC), travel time costs, accident costs and environmental impact. Despite an increase in the attention paid by global road agencies to the environmental and the road users’ satisfaction, the overwhelming evidence from the available literature agree on the lack of similar levels of attention for the two factors in many developing countries. While many sources agree that the road maintenance backlog is caused by either the shortage of expenditures or lack of proper management or both, it appears that managing the available assets particularly in the developing countries is the main issue. To address this subject, this paper will concentrate on exposing the various issues related to this field.  

Keywords: Environmental impact, performance indicators, road maintenance, users’ satisfaction.

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