Search results for: Project forecasting

Authors: T. K. Sriram, Joydip Dhar

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Models based on stage structure have found varied applications in population models. This paper proposes a stage structured model to study the trends in the computer and video game playing population of US. The game paying population is divided into three compartments based on their age group. After simulating the mathematical model, a forecast of the number of game players in each stage as well as an approximation of the average age of game players in future has been made.

Keywords: Age structure, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Stage structure.

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Authors: Ildar Akhmadullin, Mayank Tyagi

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The subject of this paper is the design analysis of a single well power production unit from low enthalpy geothermal resources. A complexity of the project is defined by a low temperature heat source that usually makes such projects economically disadvantageous using the conventional binary power plant approach. A proposed new compact design is numerically analyzed. This paper describes a thermodynamic analysis, a working fluid choice, downhole heat exchanger (DHE) and turbine calculation results. The unit is able to produce 321 kW of electric power from a low enthalpy underground heat source utilizing n-Pentane as a working fluid. A geo-pressured reservoir located in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, USA is selected as a prototype for the field application. With a brine temperature of 126 , the optimal length of DHE is determined as 304.8 m (1000ft). All units (pipes, turbine, and pumps) are chosen from commercially available parts to bring this project closer to the industry requirements. Numerical calculations are based on petroleum industry standards. The project is sponsored by the Department of Energy of the US.

Keywords: Downhole Heat Exchangers, Geothermal Power Generation, Organic Rankine Cycle, Refrigerants, Working Fluids.

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Authors: Yung-Pin Cheng, Ching-Huei Wang

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Process improvements have drawn much attention in practical software engineering. The capability maturity levels from CMMI have become an important index to assess a software company-s software engineering capability. However, in countries like Taiwan, customers often have no choices but to deal with vendors that are not CMMI prepared or qualified. We call these vendors maturitylevel- 1 (ML1) vendors. In this paper, we describe our experience from consulting an e-school project. We propose an approach to help our client tackle the ML1 vendors. Through our system analysis, we produce a design. This design is suggested to be used as part of contract and a blueprint to guide the implementation.

Keywords: CMMI, Software Engineering, Software Design, Designas Contract.

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Authors: Hernán G. Cortés-Mora, José I. Péna-Reyes, Alfonso Herrera-Jiménez

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This article describes the implementation experience of Project-Based Learning (PBL) in an engineering course of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, with the aim of strengthening student skills necessary for the exercise of their profession under a sustainability framework. Firstly, we present a literature review on the education for sustainability field, emphasizing the skills and knowledge areas required for its development, as well as the commitment of the Faculty of Engineering of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, and other engineering faculties of the country, regarding education for sustainability. This article covers the general aspects of the course, describes how students team were formed, and how their experience was during the first semester of 2017. During this period two groups of students decided to develop their course project aiming to solve a problem regarding a Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) that works with head-of-household mothers in a low-income neighborhood in Bogota (Colombia). Subsequently, we show how sustainability is involved in the course, how tools are provided to students, and how activities are developed as to strengthen their abilities, which allows them to incorporate sustainability in their projects while also working on the methodology used to develop said projects. Finally, we introduce the results obtained by the students who sent the prototypes of their projects to the community they were working on and the conclusions reached by them regarding the course experience.

Keywords: Sustainability, project based learning, engineering education, higher education for sustainability.

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Authors: Muhibul Haque Bhuyan

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Inclusion of any design project in an undergraduate electrical and electronic engineering curriculum and producing creative ideas in the final year capstone design projects have received numerous comments at the Board of Accreditation for Engineering and Technical Education (BAETE) several times by the mentors and visiting program evaluator team members at different public and private universities in Bangladesh. To eradicate this deficiency which is needed for getting the program accreditation, a thorough change was required in the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE) for its BSc in EEE program at Southeast University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. We suggested making changes in the course curriculum titles and contents, emphasizing to include capstone design projects, question setting, examining students through other standard methods, selecting and retaining Outcome-Based Education (OBE)-oriented engineering faculty members, improving laboratories through purchasing new equipment and software as well as developing new experiments for each laboratory courses, and engaging the students to practical designs in various courses and final year projects. This paper reports on capstone design project course objectives, course outcomes, mapping with the program outcomes, cognitive domain of learning, assessment schemes, guidelines, suggestions and recommendations for supervision processes, assessment strategy, and rubric setting, etc. It is expected that this will substantially improve the capstone design projects offering, supervision, and assessment in the undergraduate EEE program to fulfill the arduous requirements of BAETE accreditation based on OBE.

Keywords: Course outcome, capstone design project, assessment and evaluation, electrical and electronic engineering.

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Authors: Afrah Saad Mohsen Al-Mahfadi

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In rural areas of developing countries, participation of all stakeholders in water supply projects is an important step towards further development. As most of the beneficiaries are women, it is important that they should be involved to achieve successful and sustainable water supply projects. Women are responsible for the management of water both inside and outside home, and often spend more than six-hours a day fetching drinking water from distant water sources. The problem is that rural women play a role of little importance in the water supply projects’ phases in rural Yemen. Therefore, this research aimed at analyzing the different reasons of their lack of participation in projects and in what way a full participation -if achieved- could contribute to sustainable water supply projects in the rural mountainous areas in Yemen. Four water supply projects were selected as a case study in Al-Della'a Alaala sub-district in the Al-Mahweet governorate, two of them were implemented by the Social Fund and Development (SFD), while others were implemented by the General Authority for Rural Water Supply Projects (GARWSSP). Furthermore, the successful Al-Galba project, which is located in Badan district in Ibb governorate, was selected for comparison. The rural women's active participation in water projects have potential consequences including continuity and maintenance improvement, equipment security, and improvement in the overall health and education status of these areas. The majority of respondents taking part in GARWSSP projects estimated that there is no reason to involve women in the project activities. In the comparison project - in which a woman worked as a supervisor and implemented the project – all respondents indicated that the participation of women is vital for sustainability. Therefore, the results of this research are intended to stimulate rural women's participation in the mountainous areas of Yemen.

Keywords: Assessment, rural woman, sustainability, water management.

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Authors: Nadeem Ehsan, Ebtisam Mirza, Muhammad Ahmad

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In a complex project environment, project teams face multi-dimensional communication problems that can ultimately lead to project breakdown. Team Performance varies in Face-to-Face (FTF) environment versus groups working remotely in a computermediated communication (CMC) environment. A brief review of the Input_Process_Output model suggested by James E. Driskell, Paul H. Radtke and Eduardo Salas in “Virtual Teams: Effects of Technological Mediation on Team Performance (2003)", has been done to develop the basis of this research. This model theoretically analyzes the effects of technological mediation on team processes, such as, cohesiveness, status and authority relations, counternormative behavior and communication. An empirical study described in this paper has been undertaken to test the “cohesiveness" of diverse project teams in a multi-national organization. This study uses both quantitative and qualitative techniques for data gathering and analysis. These techniques include interviews, questionnaires for data collection and graphical data representation for analyzing the collected data. Computer-mediated technology may impact team performance because of difference in cohesiveness among teams and this difference may be moderated by factors, such as, the type of communication environment, the type of task and the temporal context of the team. Based on the reviewed model, sets of hypotheses are devised and tested. This research, reports on a study that compared team cohesiveness among virtual teams using CMC and non-CMC communication mediums. The findings suggest that CMC can help virtual teams increase team cohesiveness among their members, making CMC an effective medium for increasing productivity and team performance.

Keywords: Computer-mediated Communication, Virtual Teams, Team Performance, Team Cohesiveness.

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Authors: Maisam Rafiee, Chikashi Deguchi, Akio Odake, Minoru Matsui, Takanori Sata

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Cities in Afghanistan have been rapidly urbanized; however, many parts of these cities have been developed with no detailed land use plan or infrastructure. In other words, they have been informally developed without any government leadership. The new government started the In-situ Upgrading Project in Kabul to upgrade roads, the water supply network system, and the surface water drainage system on the existing street layout in 2002, with the financial support of international agencies. This project is an appropriate emergency improvement for living life, but not an essential improvement of living conditions and infrastructure problems because the life expectancies of the improved facilities are as short as 10–15 years, and residents cannot obtain land tenure in the unplanned areas. The Land Readjustment System (LRS) conducted in Japan has good advantages that rearrange irregularly shaped land lots and develop the infrastructure effectively. This study investigates the effects of the In-situ Upgrading Project on private investment, land prices, and residents’ satisfaction with projects in Kart-e-Char, where properties are registered, and in Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, where properties are unregistered. These projects are located 5 km and 7 km from the CBD area of Kabul, respectively. This study discusses whether LRS should be applied to the unplanned area based on the questionnaire and interview responses of experts experienced in the In-situ Upgrading Project who have knowledge of LRS. The analysis results reveal that, in Kart-e-Char, a lot of private investment has been made in the construction of medium-rise (five- to nine-story) buildings for commercial and residential purposes. Land values have also incrementally increased since the project, and residents are commonly satisfied with the road pavement, drainage systems, and water supplies, but dissatisfied with the poor delivery of electricity as well as the lack of public facilities (e.g., parks and sport facilities). In Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, basic infrastructures like paved roads and surface water drainage systems have improved from the project. After the project, a few four- and five-story residential buildings were built with very low-level private investments, but significant increases in land prices were not evident. The residents are satisfied with the contribution ratio, drainage system, and small increase in land price, but there is still no drinking water supply system or tenure security; moreover, there are substandard paved roads and a lack of public facilities, such as parks, sport facilities, mosques, and schools. The results of the questionnaire and interviews with the four engineers highlight the problems that remain to be solved in the unplanned areas if LRS is applied—namely, land use differences, types and conditions of the infrastructure still to be installed by the project, and time spent for positive consensus building among the residents, given the project’s budget limitation.

Keywords: In-Situ Upgrading, Kabul, Land Readjustment, Land value, Planned areas, Private investment, Resident satisfaction, Unplanned areas.

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Authors: Ju-Young Kim, Tae-Heon Moon, Jung-Hun Cho

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Urban regeneration projects have been actively promoted in Korea. In particular, Jeonju Hanok Village is evaluated as one of representative cases in terms of utilizing local cultural heritage sits in the urban regeneration project. However, recently, there has been a growing concern in this area, due to the ‘gentrification’, caused by the excessive commercialization and surging tourists. This trend was changing land and building use and resulted in the loss of identity of the region. In this regard, this study analyzed the land use transformation between 2010 and 2016 to identify the commercialization trend in Jeonju Hanok Village. In addition, it conducted SNS big data analysis on Jeonju Hanok Village from February 14th, 2016 to March 31st, 2016 to identify visitors’ awareness of the village. The study results demonstrate that rapid commercialization was underway, unlikely the initial intention, so that planners and officials in city government should reconsider the project direction and rebuild deliberate management strategies. This study is meaningful in that it analyzed the land use transformation and SNS big data to identify the current situation in urban regeneration area. Furthermore, it is expected that the study results will contribute to the vitalization of regeneration area.

Keywords: Land use, SNS, text mining, urban regeneration.

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Authors: Sou Watanabe, Hiromichi Ogi, Atsuhiro Shibata, Kazunori Nomura

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As a part of STRAD project conducted by JAEA, condensation of radioactive liquid waste containing various chemical compounds using reverse osmosis (RO) membrane filter was examined for efficient and safety treatment of the liquid wastes accumulated inside hot laboratories. NH₄⁺ ion in the feed solution was successfully concentrated, and NH₄⁺ ion involved in the effluents became lower than target value; 100 ppm. Solidification of simulated aqueous and organic liquid wastes was also tested. Those liquids were successfully solidified by adding cement or coagulants. Nevertheless, optimization in materials for confinement of chemicals is required for long time storage of the final solidified wastes.

Keywords: Radioactive liquid waste, condensation, solidification, STRAD project.

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Authors: C. Malça, N. Alves, A. Mateus

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This work was one of the tasks of the Manufacturing2Client project, whose objective was to develop a frontal deflector to be commercialized in the automotive industry, using new project and manufacturing methods. In this task, in particular, it was proposed to develop the ability to predict computationally the aerodynamic influence of flow in vehicles, in an effort to reduce fuel consumption in vehicles from class 3 to 8. With this aim, two deflector models were developed and their aerodynamic performance analyzed. The aerodynamic study was done using the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software Ansys CFX and allowed the calculation of the drag coefficient caused by the vehicle motion for the different configurations considered. Moreover, the reduction of diesel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with the optimized deflector geometry could be assessed.

Keywords: Aerodynamic analysis, CFD, CO2 emissions, Drag coefficient, Frontal deflector, Fuel consumption.

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Authors: Pavol Tanuska, Pavel Vazan, Michal Kebisek, Dominika Jurovata

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The paper gives the results of the project that was oriented on the usage of knowledge discoveries from production systems for needs of the hierarchical process control. One of the main project goals was the proposal of knowledge discovery model for process control. Specifics data mining methods and techniques was used for defined problems of the process control. The gained knowledge was used on the real production system thus the proposed solution has been verified. The paper documents how is possible to apply the new discovery knowledge to use in the real hierarchical process control. There are specified the opportunities for application of the proposed knowledge discovery model for hierarchical process control.

Keywords: Hierarchical process control, knowledge discovery from databases, neural network.

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Authors: Sandoval Villa Héctor, Estrada Velazco Evaristo, Chavarría Alamilla Luis

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Pleurotus ostreatus is a common edible mushroom with a number of properties that can help to solve the nutritional and economical problems of people in Chiapas, Mexico. The objective of this project was to produce the mushroom under a sustainable management in which only regional products were allowed as a way to promote the cultivation and consumption of Pleurotus ostreatus; 5 different substrates were tested as well as 2 sanitation methods. The obtained results showed that the highest yields were obtained using corn husk and a thermal sanitation method. Pests and diseases were not a problem during the project but they appeared more in the substrates sanitized with calcium hydroxide.

Keywords: Pleurotus ostreatus, substrates, sanitation.

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Authors: Ronbanchob Apiratikul

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This research studied recycled waste by the Recyclable Material Bank Project of 4 universities in the central region of Thailand for the evaluation of reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared with landfilling activity during July 2012 to June 2013. The results showed that the projects collected total amount of recyclable wastes of about 911,984.80 kilograms. Office paper had the largest amount among these recycled wastes (50.68% of total recycled waste). Groups of recycled waste can be prioritized from high to low according to their amount as paper, plastic, glass, mixed recyclables, and metal, respectively. The project reduced greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to about 2814.969 metric tons of carbon dioxide. The most significant recycled waste that affects the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is office paper which is 70.16% of total reduced greenhouse gasses emission. According to amount of reduced greenhouse gasses emission, groups of recycled waste can be prioritized from high to low significances as paper, plastic, metals, mixed recyclables, and glass, respectively.

Keywords: Recycling, garbage bank, waste management, recyclable wastes, greenhouse gasses.

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

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In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and useroriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework, this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: construction, design, economic, legal, market, natural, operation, political, project finance, project selection and relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: Construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks.

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Authors: Saidu Ibrahim, Winston M. W. Shakantu

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The problem of construction material waste remains unresolved, as a significant percentage of the materials delivered to some project sites end up as waste which might result in additional project cost. Cost overrun is a problem which affects 90% of the completed projects in the world. The argument on how to eliminate it has been on-going for the past 70 years, but there is neither substantial improvement nor significant solution for mitigating its detrimental effects. Research evidence has proposed various construction cost overruns and material-waste management approaches; nonetheless, these studies failed to give a clear indication on the framework and the equation for managing construction material waste and cost overruns. Hence, this research aims to develop a conceptual framework and a mathematical equation for managing material waste and cost overrun in the construction industry. The paper adopts the desktop methodological approach. This involves comparing the causes of material waste and those of cost overruns from the literature to determine the possible relationship. The review revealed a relationship between material waste and cost overrun that; increase in material waste would result to a corresponding increase in the amount of cost overrun at both the pre-contract and the post contract stages of a project. It was found from the equation that achieving an effective construction material waste management must ensure a “Good Quality-of-Planning, Estimating, and Design Management” and a “Good Quality- of-Construction, Procurement and Site Management”; a decrease in “Design Complexity” which would reduce “Material Waste” and subsequently reduce the amount of cost overrun by 86.74%. The conceptual framework and the mathematical equation developed in this study are recommended to the professionals of the construction industry.

Keywords: Conceptual framework, cost overrun, material waste, project stags.

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Authors: Md. Athar Imtiaz, Abduljalil S. Al-Mudhary, Md. Taha Mirhashemi, Roslina Ibrahim

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Information Technology (IT) is being used by almost all organizations throughout the world. However its success at supporting and improving business is debatable. There is always the risk of IT project failure and studies have proven that a large number of IT projects indeed do fail. There are many components that further the success of IT projects; these have been studied in previous studies. Studies have found the most necessary components for success in software development projects, executive information systems etc. In this study previous literatures that have looked into these success promoting factors have been critically reviewed and analyzed. 15 Critical Success Factors (CSF) of IT projects were enlisted and examined. These factors can be applied to all IT projects and is not specific to a particular type of IT/IS project. A hypothesis was also generated after the evaluation of the factors.

Keywords: Critical Success Factors, CSF, IT Projects, IS Projects, Software Development Projects.

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Authors: A. A. Shafie, Fadhlan Hafiz, M. H. Ali

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Motion detection is very important in image processing. One way of detecting motion is using optical flow. Optical flow cannot be computed locally, since only one independent measurement is available from the image sequence at a point, while the flow velocity has two components. A second constraint is needed. The method used for finding the optical flow in this project is assuming that the apparent velocity of the brightness pattern varies smoothly almost everywhere in the image. This technique is later used in developing software for motion detection which has the capability to carry out four types of motion detection. The motion detection software presented in this project also can highlight motion region, count motion level as well as counting object numbers. Many objects such as vehicles and human from video streams can be recognized by applying optical flow technique.

Keywords: Background modeling, Motion detection, Optical flow, Velocity smoothness constant, motion trajectories.

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Authors: Ronbanchob Apiratikul

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This research studied recycled wastes by Recyclable Material Bank project of 17 universities of Thailand for evaluation of reducing greenhouse gasses emission compared with landfilling activity during January 2011 to December 2011. The results showed that the projects collected total amount of recyclable wastes about 1,626.917 metric ton. The office paper has the largest amount among these recycled wastes (55.61 % of total recycled wastes). Groups of recycled waste can be prioritized from high to low according to their amount as paper, plastic, glass, mixed recyclables and metal, respectively. The project reduced greenhouse gasses emission equivalent to about 5,263.481 metric ton of carbon dioxide. The most significant recycled waste that affects the reduction of greenhouse gasses emission is office paper which is 73.45% of total reduced greenhouse gasses emission. According to amount of reduced greenhouse gasses emission, groups of recycled waste can be prioritized from high to low significances as paper, plastic, metal, mixed recyclables and glass, respectively.

Keywords: recycling, garbage bank, waste management, recyclable wastes, greenhouse gasses

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Authors: K. Sheehy, R. Ferguson, G. Clough

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This paper examines ethical and social issues which have proved important when initiating and creating educational spaces within a virtual environment. It focuses on one project, identifying the key decisions made, the barriers to new practice encountered and the impact these had on the project. It demonstrates the importance of the 'backstage' ethical and social issues involved in the creation of a virtual education community and offers conclusions, and questions, which will inform future research and practice in this area. These ethical issues are considered using Knobel-s framework of front-end, in-process and back-end concerns, and include establishing social practices for the islands, allocating access rights, considering personal safety and supporting researchers appropriately within this context.

Keywords: distance education, ethics, virtual environments.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

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A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Zohreh Soltani, Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian

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Reduction of energy consumption in built infrastructure, through the installation of energy-efficient technologies, is a major approach to achieving sustainability. In practice, the viability of energy efficiency projects strongly depends on the cost reimbursement and profitability. These projects are subject to failure if the actual cost savings do not reimburse the project cost promptly. In such cases, refinancing could be a solution to benefit from the long-term returns of the project, if implemented wisely. However, very little is still known about the effect of refinancing options on financial performance of energy efficiency projects. In order to fill this gap, the present study investigates the financial behavior of energy efficiency projects with focus on refinancing options, such as Leveraged Loans. A System Dynamics (SD) model is introduced, and the model application is presented using an actual case-study data. The case study results indicate that while high-interest start-ups make using Leveraged Loan inevitable, refinancing can rescue the project and bring about profitability. This paper also presents some managerial implications of refinancing energy efficiency projects based on the case-study analysis. Results of this study help to implement financially viable energy efficiency projects so that the community could benefit from their environmental advantages widely.

Keywords: Energy efficiency projects, leveraged loan, refinancing, sustainability.

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Authors: Tarek Fatouh, Chehab Elbelehy, Alaa Abdelsalam, Eman Elakkad, Alaa Abdelshafie

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This paper aims to explore the possibility of time compression in Engineer to Order production networks. A case study research method is used in a Norwegian shipbuilding project by implementing a value stream mapping lean tool with total cycle time as a unit of analysis. The analysis resulted in demonstrating the time deviations for the planned tasks in one of the processes in the shipbuilding project. So, authors developed a future state map by removing time wastes from value stream process.

Keywords: Engineer to order, total cycle time, value stream mapping, shipbuilding.

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Authors: Francis Z. Naab, Abraham M. Nunbogu, Romanus D. Dinye, Alfred Dongzagla

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The study assesses the effectiveness of the Bui Dam resettlement scheme in the Tain and the Bole districts in Ghana. The study adopted a mixed approach in its data collection and analyses. Of the eight communities affected by Bui hydropower project, and thus require resettlement, four were purposively selected for primary data collection. Primary data was gathered through questionnaire administration to 157 heads of resettled households, focus group discussions with men and women and in-depth interviews with key informants. The findings indicated that the affected people had been sufficiently contacted at all levels of their resettlement. In particular, the Ghana Dams Dialogue, which served as a liaison entity between the government and the resettlement communities came up for praise for its usefulness. Many tangible policies were put in place to address the socio-cultural differences of traditional authorities. The Bui Dam Authority also rigorously followed national and international laws and protocols in the design and implementation of the resettlement scheme.  In assessing the effectiveness of the resettlement scheme, it was clear that there had been a great appreciation of the compensation regarding infrastructural development, but much more would have to be done to satisfy livelihood empowerment requirements. It was recommended that candid efforts be made to restore the lost identities of the communities resettled, and more dialogue is encouraged among communities living together.

Keywords: Resettlement, livelihood, hydro-power project, Bui Dam, Ghana.

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Authors: S. Falkenberg, L. Overmeyer

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The “conveyor belt" as a product represents a complex high performance component with a wide range of different applications. Further development of these highly complex components demands an integration of new technologies and new enhanced materials. In this context nanostructured fillers appear to have a more promising effect on the performance of the conveyor belt composite than conventional micro-scaled fillers. Within the project “DotTrans" nanostructured fillers, for example silicon dioxide, are used to optimize performance parameters of conveyor belt systems. The objective of the project includes operating parameters like energy consumption or friction characteristics as well as adaptive parameters like cut or wear resistance.

Keywords: Conveyor belt, nanostructured fillers, wear resistance, friction characteristics.

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Authors: Jan Sindelar

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The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: Refaat H. Abd El Razek, Ahmed M. Diab, Sherif M. Hafez, Remon F. Aziz

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Time-Cost Optimization "TCO" is one of the greatest challenges in construction project planning and control, since the optimization of either time or cost, would usually be at the expense of the other. Since there is a hidden trade-off relationship between project and cost, it might be difficult to predict whether the total cost would increase or decrease as a result of the schedule compression. Recently third dimension in trade-off analysis is taken into consideration that is quality of the projects. Few of the existing algorithms are applied in a case of construction project with threedimensional trade-off analysis, Time-Cost-Quality relationships. The objective of this paper is to presents the development of a practical software system; that named Automatic Multi-objective Typical Construction Resource Optimization System "AMTCROS". This system incorporates the basic concepts of Line Of Balance "LOB" and Critical Path Method "CPM" in a multi-objective Genetic Algorithms "GAs" model. The main objective of this system is to provide a practical support for typical construction planners who need to optimize resource utilization in order to minimize project cost and duration while maximizing its quality simultaneously. The application of these research developments in planning the typical construction projects holds a strong promise to: 1) Increase the efficiency of resource use in typical construction projects; 2) Reduce construction duration period; 3) Minimize construction cost (direct cost plus indirect cost); and 4) Improve the quality of newly construction projects. A general description of the proposed software for the Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off "TCQTO" is presented. The main inputs and outputs of the proposed software are outlined. The main subroutines and the inference engine of this software are detailed. The complexity analysis of the software is discussed. In addition, the verification, and complexity of the proposed software are proved and tested using a real case study.

Keywords: Project management, typical (repetitive) large scale projects, line of balance, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithms, time-cost-quality trade-offs.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle, Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecasting, Neuro-Fuzzy, Smoothing transition, Time-series

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Authors: Helena Vomackova

Abstract:

This contribution examines the relationship between the family environment and the level of young pupils’ scholastic success. It comments on the partial results of a research probe carried out in the year 2012 on a sample of 412 Czech Republic primary school pupils of the fourth, fifth and sixths forms within the Project IGA 43 201 15 0004 01. The key links of this project were monitored in relation to the highest education level achieved by the learners´ parents, as well as to the type of family it is (in particular its ability to function), to component factors specific to the family climate (their willingness to share information, communication, parental control) and, finally, to the number of children in the family as an important socialization constituent.

Keywords: Family environment factors, scholastic success, parents’ education, family type, family climate.

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