Search results for: multivariate regression

Authors: Madhusudan Purohit, Stephen Philip, Bharathkumar Inturi

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In this paper we report the quantitative structure activity relationship of novel bis-triazole derivatives for predicting the activity profile. The full model encompassed a dataset of 46 Bis- triazoles. Tripos Sybyl X 2.0 program was used to conduct CoMSIA QSAR modeling. The Partial Least-Squares (PLS) analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis and to derive a QSAR model based on the field values of CoMSIA descriptor. The compounds were divided into test and training set. The compounds were evaluated by various CoMSIA parameters to predict the best QSAR model. An optimum numbers of components were first determined separately by cross-validation regression for CoMSIA model, which were then applied in the final analysis. A series of parameters were used for the study and the best fit model was obtained using donor, partition coefficient and steric parameters. The CoMSIA models demonstrated good statistical results with regression coefficient (r²) and the cross-validated coefficient (q²) of 0.575 and 0.830 respectively. The standard error for the predicted model was 0.16322. In the CoMSIA model, the steric descriptors make a marginally larger contribution than the electrostatic descriptors. The finding that the steric descriptor is the largest contributor for the CoMSIA QSAR models is consistent with the observation that more than half of the binding site area is occupied by steric regions.

Keywords: 3D QSAR, CoMSIA, Triazoles.

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Authors: G. Sekeroglu, M. Altan

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Working capital is identified as firm’s all current assets. Inventories which are one of the working capital elements are very important among current assets for firms. Because, profitability is an indicator for firms’ financial success is provided with minimum cost and optimum inventory quantity. So in this study, it is investigated as comparatively that the effect of inventory management on the profitability of Turkish firms which operated in weaving industry, eatables industry, wholesale and retail industry in between 2003 – 2012 years. Research data consist of profitability ratios and inventory turnovers ratio calculated by using balance sheets and income statements of firms which operated in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). In this research, the relationship between inventories and profitability is investigated by using SPSS-20 software with regression and correlation analysis. The results achieved from three industry departments which exist in study interpreted as comparatively. Accordingly, it is determined that there is a positive relationship between inventory management and profitability in eatables industry. However, it was founded that there is no relationship between inventory management and profitability in weaving industry and wholesale and retail industry.

Keywords: Profitability, regression analysis, inventory management, working capital.

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Authors: Arsalan Jabbar, Wajiha Javed, Nelofer Mehboob, Zahid Memon

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Introduction: There are multiple social, individual and cultural factors that influence an individual’s decision to adopt family planning methods especially among non-users in patriarchal societies like Pakistan. Non-users, if targeted efficiently, can contribute significantly to country’s CPR. A research study showed that nonusers if convinced to adopt lactational amenorrhea method can shift to long term methods in future. Research shows that if non users are targeted efficiently a 59% reduction in unintended pregnancies in Saharan Africa and South-Central and South-East Asia is anticipated. Methods: We did secondary data analysis on Pakistan Demographic Heath Survey (2012-13) dataset. Use of contraception (never-use/ever-use) was the outcome variable. At univariate level Chi-square/Fisher Exact test was used to assess relationship of baseline covariates with contraception use. Then variables to be incorporated in the model were checked for multicollinearity, confounding and interaction. Then binary logistic regression (with an urban-rural stratification) was done to find relationship between contraception use and baseline demographic and social variables. Results: The multivariate analyses of the study showed that younger women (≤ 29 years)were more prone to be never users as compared to those who were >30 years and this trend was seen in urban areas (AOR 1.92, CI 1.453-2.536) as well as rural areas (AOR 1.809, CI 1.421-2.303). While looking at regional variation, women from urban Sindh (AOR 1.548, CI 1.142-2.099) and urban Balochistan (AOR 2.403, CI 1.504-3.839) had more never users as compared to other urban regions. Women in the rich wealth quintile were more never users and this was seen both in urban and rural localities (urban (AOR 1.106 CI .753-1.624); rural areas (AOR 1.162, CI .887-1.524)) even though these were not statistically significant. Women idealizing more children (>4) are more never users as compared to those idealizing less children in both urban (AOR 1.854, CI 1.275-2.697) and rural areas (AOR 2.101, CI 1.514-2.916). Women who never lost a pregnancy were more inclined to be nonusers in rural areas (AOR 1.394, CI 1.127-1.723) .Women familiar with only traditional or no method had more never users in rural areas (AOR 1.717, CI 1.127-1.723) but in urban areas it wasn’t significant. Women unaware of Lady Health Worker’s presence in their area were more never users especially in rural areas (AOR 1.276, CI 1.014-1.607). Women who did not visit any care provider were more never users (urban (AOR 11.738, CI 9.112-15.121) rural areas (AOR 7.832, CI 6.243-9.826)). Discussion/Conclusion: This study concluded that government, policy makers and private sector family planning programs should focus on the untapped pool of never users (younger women from underserved provinces, in higher wealth quintiles, who desire more children.). We need to make sure to cover catchment areas where there are less LHWs and less providers as ignorance to modern methods and never been visited by an LHW are important determinants of never use. This all is in sync with previous literate from similar developing countries.

Keywords: Contraception, Demographic and Health Survey, Family Planning, Never users.

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Authors: Marzieh Talebzadeh Shoushtari

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The present study aimed to determine the effectiveness of Metaphor therapy on depression among female students. The sample included 60 female students with depression symptoms selected by simple sampling and randomly divided into two equal groups (experimental and control groups). Beck Depression Inventory was used to measure the variables. This was an experimental study with a pre-test/post-test design with control group. Eight metaphor therapy sessions were held for the experimental group. A post-test was administered to both groups. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA). Results showed that the Metaphor therapy decreased depression in the experimental group compared to the control group.

Keywords: Metaphor therapy, depression, female, students.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Kafaji

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This paper aims to investigate the influence of quality of education and quality of research, provided by local educational institutions, on the adoption of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in managing business operations for companies in Saudi market. A model was developed and tested using data collected from 138 Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of foreign companies in diverse business sectors. The data is analyzed and managed using multivariate approaches through standard statistical packages. The results showed that educational quality has little contribution to the ICT adoption while research quality seems to play a more prominent role. These results are analyzed in terms of business environment and market constraints and further extended to the perceived effectiveness of applied pedagogical approaches in schools and universities.

Keywords: Domestic Competition, Quality of Education, Quality of Research, ICT Adoption, Mediation.

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Authors: Tayyab Hassan, Talha Rehman, Qasim Abdul Aziz, Ahmad Salman

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The constant monitoring of blood glucose level is necessary for maintaining health of patients and to alert medical specialists to take preemptive measures before the onset of any complication as a result of diabetes. The current clinical monitoring of blood glucose uses invasive methods repeatedly which are uncomfortable and may result in infections in diabetic patients. Several attempts have been made to develop non-invasive techniques for blood glucose measurement. In this regard, the existing methods are not reliable and are less accurate. Other approaches claiming high accuracy have not been tested on extended dataset, and thus, results are not statistically significant. It is a well-known fact that acetone concentration in breath has a direct relation with blood glucose level. In this paper, we have developed the first of its kind, reliable and high accuracy breath analyzer for non-invasive blood glucose measurement. The acetone concentration in breath was measured using MQ 138 sensor in the samples collected from local hospitals in Pakistan involving one hundred patients. The blood glucose levels of these patients are determined using conventional invasive clinical method. We propose a linear regression classifier that is trained to map breath acetone level to the collected blood glucose level achieving high accuracy.

Keywords: Blood glucose level, breath acetone concentration, diabetes, linear regression.

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Authors: S. Soommat, S. Patamatamkul, T. Prempridi, M. Sritulyachot, P. Ineure, S. Yimman

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Currently, slider process of Hard Disk Drive Industry become more complex, defective diagnosis for yield improvement becomes more complicated and time-consumed. Manufacturing data analysis with data mining approach is widely used for solving that problem. The existing mining approach from combining of the KMean clustering, the machine oriented Kruskal-Wallis test and the multivariate chart were applied for defective diagnosis but it is still be a semiautomatic diagnosis system. This article aims to modify an algorithm to support an automatic decision for the existing approach. Based on the research framework, the new approach can do an automatic diagnosis and help engineer to find out the defective factors faster than the existing approach about 50%.

Keywords: Slider process, Defective diagnosis and Data mining.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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Authors: Won Sup Kim, Xue-Mei Cui, Seung Kee Han

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We present on the method of inverse coherence matrix for the estimation of network connectivity from multivariate time series of a complex system. In a model system of coupled chaotic oscillators, it is shown that the inverse coherence matrix defined as the inverse of cross coherence matrix is proportional to the network connectivity. Therefore the inverse coherence matrix could be used for the distinction between the directly connected links from indirectly connected links in a complex network. We compare the result of network estimation using the method of the inverse coherence matrix with the results obtained from the coherence matrix and the partial coherence matrix.

Keywords: Chaotic oscillator, complex network, inverse coherence matrix, network estimation.

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Authors: Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Seyed Mohammad Mirhashemi

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The current study explored the effect of economic development, financial development and institutional quality on environmental destruction in upper-middle income countries during the time period of 1999-2011. The dependent variable is logarithm of carbon dioxide emissions that can be considered as an index for destruction or quality of the environment given to its effects on the environment. Financial development and institutional development variables as well as some control variables were considered. In order to study cross-sectional correlation among the countries under study, Pesaran and Friz test was used. Since the results of both tests show cross-sectional correlation in the countries under study, seemingly unrelated regression method was utilized for model estimation. The results disclosed that Kuznets’ environmental curve hypothesis is confirmed in upper-middle income countries and also, financial development and institutional quality have a significant effect on environmental quality. The results of this study can be considered by policy makers in countries with different income groups to have access to a growth accompanied by improved environmental quality.

Keywords: Economic Development, Environmental Destruction, Financial Development, Institutional Development, Seemingly Unrelated Regression.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, A. Hamid Khajavi

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Abrasive waterjet is a novel machining process capable of processing wide range of hard-to-machine materials. This research addresses modeling and optimization of the process parameters for this machining technique. To model the process a set of experimental data has been used to evaluate the effects of various parameter settings in cutting 6063-T6 aluminum alloy. The process variables considered here include nozzle diameter, jet traverse rate, jet pressure and abrasive flow rate. Depth of cut, as one of the most important output characteristics, has been evaluated based on different parameter settings. The Taguchi method and regression modeling are used in order to establish the relationships between input and output parameters. The adequacy of the model is evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique. The pairwise effects of process parameters settings on process response outputs are also shown graphically. The proposed model is then embedded into a Simulated Annealing algorithm to optimize the process parameters. The optimization is carried out for any desired values of depth of cut. The objective is to determine proper levels of process parameters in order to obtain a certain level of depth of cut. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed solution procedure is quite effective in solving such multi-variable problems.

Keywords: AWJ cutting, Mathematical modeling, Simulated Annealing, Optimization

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: Logistic Regression LoR, Kernel Density Estimator KDE, Handwriting, Confidence Interval, Repeatability, Reproducibility.

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Authors: Wei Yang, Xiaohui Cui, Weiping Zhu, Liqun Liu

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The rapid development of the Confucius Institute is attracting more and more attention from mainstream media around the world. Mainstream media plays a large role in public information dissemination and public opinion. This study presents efforts to analyze the correlation and functional relationship between domestic and foreign mainstream media by analyzing the amount of reports on the Confucius Institute. Three kinds of correlation calculation methods, the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), the Spearman correlation coefficient (SCC), and the Kendall rank correlation coefficient (KCC), were applied to analyze the correlations among mainstream media from three regions: mainland of China; Hong Kong and Macao (the two special administration regions of China denoted as SARs); and overseas countries excluding China, such as the United States, England, and Canada. Further, the paper measures the functional relationships among the regions using a regression model. The experimental analyses found high correlations among mainstream media from the different regions. Additionally, we found that there is a linear relationship between the mainstream media of overseas countries and those of the SARs by analyzing the amount of reports on the Confucius Institute based on a data set obtained by crawling the websites of 106 mainstream media during the years 2004 to 2014.

Keywords: Confucius Institute, correlation analysis, mainstream media, regression model.

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Authors: Naoki Yamamoto, Jun Murakami, Chiharu Okuma, Yutaro Shigeto, Satoko Saito, Takashi Izumi, Nozomi Hayashida

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Multi-dimensional principal component analysis (PCA) is the extension of the PCA, which is used widely as the dimensionality reduction technique in multivariate data analysis, to handle multi-dimensional data. To calculate the PCA the singular value decomposition (SVD) is commonly employed by the reason of its numerical stability. The multi-dimensional PCA can be calculated by using the higher-order SVD (HOSVD), which is proposed by Lathauwer et al., similarly with the case of ordinary PCA. In this paper, we apply the multi-dimensional PCA to the multi-dimensional medical data including the functional independence measure (FIM) score, and describe the results of experimental analysis.

Keywords: multi-dimensional principal component analysis, higher-order SVD (HOSVD), functional independence measure (FIM), medical data, tensor decomposition

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Authors: A. El-S. Makled, M. K. Al-Tamimi

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A mathematical model to predict the performance parameters (thrusts, chamber pressures, fuel mass flow rates, mixture ratios, and regression rates during firing time) of hybrid rocket motor (HRM) is evaluated. The internal ballistic (IB) hybrid combustion model assumes that the solid fuel surface regression rate is controlled only by heat transfer (convective and radiative) from flame zone to solid fuel burning surface. A laboratory HRM is designed, manufactured, and tested for low thrust profile space missions (10-15 N) and for validating the mathematical model (computer program). The polymer material and gaseous oxidizer which are selected for this experimental work are polymethyle-methacrylate (PMMA) and polyethylene (PE) as solid fuel grain and gaseous oxygen (GO₂) as oxidizer. The variation of various operational parameters with time is determined systematically and experimentally in firing of up to 20 seconds, and an average combustion efficiency of 95% of theory is achieved, which was the goal of these experiments. The comparison between recording fire data and predicting analytical parameters shows good agreement with the error that does not exceed 4.5% during all firing time. The current mathematical (computer) code can be used as a powerful tool for HRM analytical design parameters.

Keywords: Hybrid combustion, internal ballistics, hybrid rocket motor, performance parameters.

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Authors: S. Youthao, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study investigated climatic factors associated with influenza cases in Southern Thailand. The main aim for use regression analysis to investigate possible causual relationship of climatic factors and variability between the border of the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. Southern Thailand had the highest Influenza incidences among four regions (i.e. north, northeast, central and southern Thailand). In this study, there were 14 climatic factors: mean relative humidity, maximum relative humidity, minimum relative humidity, rainfall, rainy days, daily maximum rainfall, pressure, maximum wind speed, mean wind speed, sunshine duration, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and temperature difference (i.e. maximum – minimum temperature). Multiple stepwise regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The results indicated that the mean wind speed and the minimum relative humidity were positively associated with the number of influenza cases on the Andaman Sea side. The maximum wind speed was positively associated with the number of influenza cases on the Gulf of Thailand side.

Keywords: Influenza, Climatic Factor, Relative Humidity, Rainfall, Pressure, Wind Speed, sunshine duration, Temperature, Andaman Sea, Gulf of Thailand, Southern Thailand.

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Authors: Dennis A. Apuan

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Categorical data based on description of the agricultural landscape imposed some mathematical and analytical limitations. This problem however can be overcome by data transformation through coding scheme and the use of non-parametric multivariate approach. The present study describes data transformation from qualitative to numerical descriptors. In a collection of 103 random soil samples over a 60 hectare field, categorical data were obtained from the following variables: levels of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, pH, hue, chroma, value and data on topography, vegetation type, and the presence of rocks. Categorical data were coded, and Spearman-s rho correlation was then calculated using PAST software ver. 1.78 in which Principal Component Analysis was based. Results revealed successful data transformation, generating 1030 quantitative descriptors. Visualization based on the new set of descriptors showed clear differences among sites, and amount of variation was successfully measured. Possible applications of data transformation are discussed.

Keywords: data transformation, numerical descriptors, principalcomponent analysis

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Authors: H. Serdar Öge, Esra Çiftçi, Kazım Karaboğa

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The main purpose of the research is to address the role of psychological harassment behaviors (mobbing) to which employees are exposed and personality characteristics over work alienation. Research population was composed of the employees of Provincial Special Administration. A survey with four sections was created to measure variables and reach out the basic goals of the research. Correlation and step-wise regression analyses were performed to investigate the separate and overall effects of sub-dimensions of psychological harassment behaviors and personality characteristic on work alienation of employees. Correlation analysis revealed significant but weak relationships between work alienation and psychological harassment and personality characteristics. Step-wise regression analysis revealed also significant relationships between work alienation variable and assault to personality, direct negative behaviors (sub dimensions of mobbing) and openness (sub-dimension of personality characteristics). Each variable was introduced into the model step by step to investigate the effects of significant variables in explaining the variations in work alienation. While the explanation ratio of the first model was 13%, the last model including three variables had an explanation ratio of 24%.

Keywords: Alienation, Five-Factor Personality Characteristics, Mobbing, Psychological Harassment, Work Alienation.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee, W. Preechaporn, S. Chumkiew

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This study investigated the number of Aedes larvae, the key breeding sites of Aedes sp., and the relationship between climatic factors and the incidence of DHF in Samui Islands. We conducted our questionnaire and larval surveys from randomly selected 105 households in Samui Islands in July-September 2006. Pearson-s correlation coefficient was used to explore the primary association between the DHF incidence and all climatic factors. Multiple stepwise regression technique was then used to fit the statistical model. The results showed that the positive indoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, and plastic tanks. The positive outdoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, plastic tanks, used cans, tires, plastic bottles, discarded objects, pot saucers, plant pots, and areca husks. All Ae. albopictus larval indices (i.e., CI, HI, and BI) were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in this area. These larval indices were higher than WHO standard. This indicated a high risk of DHF transmission at Samui Islands. The multiple stepwise regression model was y = –288.80 + 11.024xmean temp. The mean temperature was positively associated with the DHF incidence in this area.

Keywords: Dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Aedes indices, Climatic factors, Temperature.

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Authors: Ju Young Lee, Jung-Seok Yang, Jaeyoung Choi

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The purpose of this paper primarily intends to develop GIS interface for estimating sequences of stream-flows at ungauged stations based on known flows at gauged stations. The integrated GIS interface is composed of three major steps. The first, precipitation characteristics using statistical analysis is the procedure for making multiple linear regression equation to get the long term mean daily flow at ungauged stations. The independent variables in regression equation are mean daily flow and drainage area. Traditionally, mean flow data are generated by using Thissen polygon method. However, method for obtaining mean flow data can be selected by user such as Kriging, IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted), Spline methods as well as other traditional methods. At the second, flow duration curve (FDC) is computing at unguaged station by FDCs in gauged stations. Finally, the mean annual daily flow is computed by spatial interpolation algorithm. The third step is to obtain watershed/topographic characteristics. They are the most important factors which govern stream-flows. In summary, the simulated daily flow time series are compared with observed times series. The results using integrated GIS interface are closely similar and are well fitted each other. Also, the relationship between the topographic/watershed characteristics and stream flow time series is highly correlated.

Keywords: Integrated GIS interface, spatial interpolation algorithm, FDC.

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Authors: S.I Sulaiman, T.K Abdul Rahman, I. Musirin, S. Shaari

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This paper presents performance analysis of the Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN) based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Correlation coefficient (R), Evolutionary programming-ANN (EPANN), Photovoltaic (PV), logarithmic sigmoid and tangent sigmoid.

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Authors: Antonio Mauricio F. L. Miranda de Sá

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Partial coherence between two signals removing the contribution of a periodic, deterministic signal is proposed for evaluating the interrelationship in multivariate systems. The estimator expression was derived and shown to be independent of such periodic signal. Simulations were used for obtaining its critical value, which were found to be the same as those for Gaussian signals, as well as for evaluating the technique. An Illustration with eletroencephalografic (EEG) signals during photic stimulation is also provided. The application of the proposed technique in both simulation and real EEG data indicate that it seems to be very specific in removing the contribution of periodic sources. The estimate independence of the periodic signal may widen partial coherence application to signal analysis, since it could be used together with simple coherence to test for contamination in signals by a common, periodic noise source.

Keywords: Partial coherence, periodic input, spectral analysis, statistical signal processing.

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Authors: Nazif Çalış, Murat Erişoğlu, Hamza Erol, Tayfun Servi

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In the recent works related with mixture discriminant analysis (MDA), expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate parameters of Gaussian mixtures. But, initial values of EM algorithm affect the final parameters- estimates. Also, when EM algorithm is applied two times, for the same data set, it can be give different results for the estimate of parameters and this affect the classification accuracy of MDA. Forthcoming this problem, we use Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) algorithm to estimate parameters of Gaussians mixtures in MDA that SOMN is more robust when random the initial values of the parameters are used [5]. We show effectiveness of this method on popular simulated waveform datasets and real glass data set.

Keywords: Self Organizing Mixture Network, MixtureDiscriminant Analysis, Waveform Datasets, Glass Identification, Mixture of Multivariate Normal Distributions

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Authors: Hanaa E.Sayed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Shigeji Miyazaki

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This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS) that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not. FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and BEFORE-TIME.

Keywords: Bayesian Techniques, Faults Detection, Forecasting techniques, Multivariate Analysis.

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Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: Audit fee, heteroscedasticity, Lagrange multiplier test, periodicity.

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

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In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Xin Zhao, Yi-Fan Zhu, Xin-Jian Zhang

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Kernel function, which allows the formulation of nonlinear variants of any algorithm that can be cast in terms of dot products, makes the Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been successfully applied in many fields, e.g. classification and regression. The importance of kernel has motivated many studies on its composition. It-s well-known that reproducing kernel (R.K) is a useful kernel function which possesses many properties, e.g. positive definiteness, reproducing property and composing complex R.K by simple operation. There are two popular ways to compute the R.K with explicit form. One is to construct and solve a specific differential equation with boundary value whose handicap is incapable of obtaining a unified form of R.K. The other is using a piecewise integral of the Green function associated with a differential operator L. The latter benefits the computation of a R.K with a unified explicit form and theoretical analysis, whereas there are relatively later studies and fewer practical computations. In this paper, a new algorithm for computing a R.K is presented. It can obtain the unified explicit form of R.K in general reproducing kernel Hilbert space. It avoids constructing and solving the complex differential equations manually and benefits an automatic, flexible and rigorous computation for more general RKHS. In order to validate that the R.K computed by the algorithm can be used in SVM well, some illustrative examples and a comparison between R.K and Gaussian kernel (RBF) in support vector regression are presented. The result shows that the performance of R.K is close or slightly superior to that of RBF.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, Green function, support vectorregression

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

Abstract:

Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate. However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned. The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation and induce competition in the entire financial sector.

Keywords: Commercial bank, fixed fund deposit, fluctuation effects, interest rate.

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

Abstract:

To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: Goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression.

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