Search results for: impact models.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4584

Search results for: impact models.

4254 The Data Mining usage in Production System Management

Authors: Pavel Vazan, Pavol Tanuska, Michal Kebisek

Abstract:

The paper gives the pilot results of the project that is oriented on the use of data mining techniques and knowledge discoveries from production systems through them. They have been used in the management of these systems. The simulation models of manufacturing systems have been developed to obtain the necessary data about production. The authors have developed the way of storing data obtained from the simulation models in the data warehouse. Data mining model has been created by using specific methods and selected techniques for defined problems of production system management. The new knowledge has been applied to production management system. Gained knowledge has been tested on simulation models of the production system. An important benefit of the project has been proposal of the new methodology. This methodology is focused on data mining from the databases that store operational data about the production process.

Keywords: data mining, data warehousing, management of production system, simulation

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4253 Optimal Calculation of Partial Transmission Ratios of Four-Step Helical Gearboxes for Getting Minimal Gearbox Length

Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

Abstract:

This paper presents a new study on the applications of optimization and regression analysis techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of four-step helical gearboxes for getting minimal gearbox length. In the paper, basing on the moment equilibrium condition of a mechanic system including four gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for determination of the partial ratios of the gearboxes are proposed. In particular, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are proposed by using regression analysis. Using these models, the determination of the partial ratios is accurate and simple.

Keywords: Gearbox design; optimal design; helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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4252 Continuous Threshold Prey Harvesting in Predator-Prey Models

Authors: Jonathan Bohn, Jorge Rebaza, Kaitlin Speer

Abstract:

The dynamics of a predator-prey model with continuous threshold policy harvesting functions on the prey is studied. Theoretical and numerical methods are used to investigate boundedness of solutions, existence of bionomic equilibria, and the stability properties of coexistence equilibrium points and periodic orbits. Several bifurcations as well as some heteroclinic orbits are computed.

Keywords: Predator-prey models, threshold harvesting, dynamicalsystems

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4251 A Methodology of Testing Beam to Column Connection under Lateral Impact Load

Authors: A. Al-Rifaie, Z. W. Guan, S. W. Jones

Abstract:

Beam to column connection can be considered as the most important structural part that affects the response of buildings to progressive collapse. However, many studies were conducted to investigate the beam to column connection under accidental loads such as fire, blast and impact load to investigate the connection response. The study is a part of a PhD plan to investigate different types of connections under lateral impact load. The conventional test setups, such as cruciform setup, were designed to apply shear forces and bending moment on the connection, whilst, in the lateral impact case, the connection is subjected to combined tension and moment. Hence, a review is presented to introduce the previous test setup that is used to investigate the connection behaviour. Then, the design and fabrication of the novel test setup is presented. Finally, some trial test results to investigate the efficiency of the proposed setup are discussed. The final results indicate that the setup was efficient in terms of the simplicity and strength.

Keywords: Connections, impact load, drop hammer, testing methods.

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4250 A Systemic Maturity Model

Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

Abstract:

Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control and PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act). Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models include COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them related to the mechanistic and reductionist principles over which those models are built. As systems theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of organizations, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in some organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, Maturity Model, Systems Theory, Viable System Model.

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4249 Numerical Study on the Response of Reinforced Concrete Wall Resisting the Impact Loading

Authors: DucKien Thai, Seung EockKim

Abstract:

A numerical analysis of a reinforced concrete (RC) wall under missile impact loading is presented in this study. The model created by Technical Research Center of Finland was used. The commercial finite element code, LS-DYNA was used to analyze. The structural components of the reinforced concrete wall, missile and their contacts are fully modeled. The material nonlinearity with strain rate effects considering damage and failure is included in the analysis. The results of analysis were verified with other research results. The case-studies with different reinforcement ratios were conducted to investigate the influence of reinforcement on the punching behavior of walls under missile impact.

Keywords: Missile Impact, Reinforced Concrete Walls, LSDYNA, Dynamic Analysis, Punching Behavior.

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4248 Combing LCIA and Fuzzy Risk Assessment for Environmental Impact Assessment

Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Cheng-Wu Chen, Ken Yeh, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.

Keywords: Fuzzy risk analysis, life cycle impact assessment, fuzzy logic, environmental impact assessment

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4247 Variability of Hydrological Modeling of the Blue Nile

Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

Abstract:

The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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4246 A Comparative Study of Force Prediction Models during Static Bending Stage for 3-Roller Cone Frustum Bending

Authors: Mahesh Chudasama, Harit Raval

Abstract:

Conical sections and shells of metal plates manufactured by 3-roller conical bending process are widely used in the industries. The process is completed by first bending the metal plates statically and then dynamic roller bending sequentially. It is required to have an analytical model to get maximum bending force, for optimum design of the machine, for static bending stage. Analytical models assuming various stress conditions are considered and these analytical models are compared considering various parameters and reported in this paper. It is concluded from the study that for higher bottom roller inclination, the shear stress affects greatly to the static bending force whereas for lower bottom roller inclination it can be neglected.

Keywords: Roller-bending, static-bending, stress-conditions, analytical-modeling.

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4245 Biosorption of Metal Ions from Sarcheshmeh Acid Mine Drainage by Immobilized Bacillus thuringiensis in a Fixed-Bed Column

Authors: V. Khosravi, F. D. Ardejani, A. Aryafar, M. Sedighi

Abstract:

Heavy metals have a damaging impact for the environment, animals and humans due to their extreme toxicity and removing them from wastewaters is a very important and interesting task in the field of water pollution control. Biosorption is a relatively new method for treatment of wastewaters and recovery of heavy metals. In this study, a continuous fixed bed study was carried out by using Bacillus thuringiensis as a biosorbent for the removal of Cu and Mn ions from Sarcheshmeh Acid Mine Drainage (AMD). The effect of operating parameters such as flow rate and bed height on the sorption characteristics of B. thuringiensis was investigated at pH 6.0 for each metal ion. The experimental results showed that the breakthrough time decreased with increasing flow rate and decreasing bed height. The data also indicated that the equilibrium uptake of both metals increased with decreasing flow rate and increasing bed height. BDST, Thomas, and Yoon–Nelson models were applied to experimental data to predict the breakthrough curves. All models were found suitable for describing the whole dynamic behavior of the column with respect to flow rate and bed height. In order to regenerate the adsorbent, an elution step was carried out with 1 M HCl and five adsorption-desorption cycles were carried out in continuous manner.

Keywords: Acid Mine Drainage, Bacillus thuringiensis, Biosorption, Cu and Mn ions, Fixed bed.

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4244 Design and Fabrication of a Parabolic Trough Collector and Experimental Investigation of Wind Impact on Direct Steam Production in Tehran

Authors: H. Akhbari, M. Bidi, A. Bakhtiari, S. Eslami

Abstract:

The present paper aims to the techno-economic feasibility of enhancing low-cost parabolic trough collectors in the light of developing the use of solar energy in under-developed regions where expensive high-tech solar devices cannot be afforded. Moreover, the collector is aimed to produce steam so that its performance is based on heat which can be discovered. In this regard, the manufacturing process and the detailed design models in Solidworks software are elaborated. Furthermore, the colletor’s material is chosen in a way to minimize the costs. Finally, to assess the performance of the built collector, it is installed in the site of Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, and the values of the effective peripheral parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and most importantly, solar irradiance, are recorded simultaneously in June. According to the results obtained, the manufactured collector with the aperture area of 2 m2 (1×2 m) is capable of producing 350 ml.h-1 steam. Also, the wind influence is comprehensively investigated in this paper. As a case in point, it was measured that as the wind speed maximized to 9.77 km/h, the amount of steam outlet is minimized to 580 ml.

Keywords: Direct steam production, design and fabrication parabolic trough collector, solar water heater, wind impact, experimental investigation.

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4243 Experimental and Numerical Study of A/C Outletsand Its Impact on Room Airflow Characteristics

Authors: Mohammed A. Aziz, Ibrahim A. M. Gad, El Shahat F. A. Mohammed, Ramy H. Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper investigates experimental and numerical study of the airflow characteristics for vortex, round and square ceiling diffusers and its effect on the thermal comfort in a ventilated room. Three different thermal comfort criteria namely; Mean Age of the Air (MAA), ventilation effectiveness (E), and Effective Draft Temperature (EDT) have been used to predict the thermal comfort zone inside the room. In experimental work, a sub-scale room is set-up to measure the temperature field in the room. In numerical analysis, unstructured grids have been used to discretize the numerical domain. Conservation equations are solved using FLUENT commercial flow solver. The code is validated by comparing the numerical results obtained from three different turbulence models with the available experimental data. The comparison between the various numerical models shows that the standard k-ε turbulence model can be used to simulate these cases successfully. After validation of the code, effect of supply air velocity on the flow and thermal field could be investigated and hence the thermal comfort. The results show that the pressure coefficient created by the square diffuser is 1.5 times greater than that created by the vortex diffuser. The velocity decay coefficient is nearly the same for square and round diffusers and is 2.6 times greater than that for the vortex diffuser.

Keywords: Ceiling diffuser, Thermal Comfort, MAA, EDT, Fluent, Turbulence model.

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4242 Suitability of Black Box Approaches for the Reliability Assessment of Component-Based Software

Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: Black Box, faults, failure, software reliability.

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4241 Operations Research Applications in Audit Planning and Scheduling

Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents a state-of-the-art survey of the operations research models developed for internal audit planning. Two alternative approaches have been followed in the literature for audit planning: (1) identifying the optimal audit frequency; and (2) determining the optimal audit resource allocation. The first approach identifies the elapsed time between two successive audits, which can be presented as the optimal number of audits in a given planning horizon, or the optimal number of transactions after which an audit should be performed. It also includes the optimal audit schedule. The second approach determines the optimal allocation of audit frequency among all auditable units in the firm. In our review, we discuss both the deterministic and probabilistic models developed for audit planning. In addition, game theory models are reviewed to find the optimal auditing strategy based on the interactions between the auditors and the clients.

Keywords: Operations research applications, audit frequency, audit planning, audit-staff scheduling.

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4240 A CFD Analysis of Hydraulic Characteristics of the Rod Bundles in the BREST-OD-300 Wire-Spaced Fuel Assemblies

Authors: Dmitry V. Fomichev, Vladimir I. Solonin

Abstract:

This paper presents the findings from a numerical simulation of the flow in 37-rod fuel assembly models spaced by a double-wire trapezoidal wrapping as applied to the BREST-OD-300 experimental nuclear reactor. Data on a high static pressure distribution within the models, and equations for determining the fuel bundle flow friction factors have been obtained. Recommendations are provided on using the closing turbulence models available in the ANSYS Fluent. A comparative analysis has been performed against the existing empirical equations for determining the flow friction factors. The calculated and experimental data fit has been shown.

An analysis into the experimental data and results of the numerical simulation of the BREST-OD-300 fuel rod assembly hydrodynamic performance are presented.

Keywords: BREST-OD-300, ware-spaces, fuel assembly, computation fluid dynamics.

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4239 Modeling Aeration of Sharp Crested Weirs by Using Support Vector Machines

Authors: Arun Goel

Abstract:

The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free overfall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, Support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, Support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free overfall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: Air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, regression, SVM, weir.

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4238 Mean Velocity Modeling of Open-Channel Flow with Submerged Rigid Vegetation

Authors: M. Morri, A. Soualmia, P. Belleudy

Abstract:

Vegetation affects the mean and turbulent flow structure. It may increase flood risks and sediment transport. Therefore, it is important to develop analytical approaches for the bed shear stress on vegetated bed, to predict resistance caused by vegetation. In the recent years, experimental and numerical models have both been developed to model the effects of submerged vegetation on open-channel flow. In this paper, different analytic models are compared and tested using the criteria of deviation, to explore their capacity for predicting the mean velocity and select the suitable one that will be applied in real case of rivers. The comparison between the measured data in vegetated flume and simulated mean velocities indicated, a good performance, in the case of rigid vegetation, whereas, Huthoff model shows the best agreement with a high coefficient of determination (R2=80%) and the smallest error in the prediction of the average velocities.

Keywords: Analytic Models, Comparison, Mean Velocity, Vegetation.

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4237 Microgrid: Low Power Network Topology and Control

Authors: Amit Sachan

Abstract:

The network designing and data modeling developments which are the two significant research tasks in direction to tolerate power control of Microgrid concluded using IEC 61850 data models and facilities. The current casing areas of IEC 61580 include infrastructures in substation automation systems, among substations and to DERs. So, for LV microgrid power control, previously using the IEC 61850 amenities to control the smart electrical devices, we have to model those devices as IEC 61850 data models and design a network topology to maintenance all-in-one communiqué amid those devices. In adding, though IEC 61850 assists modeling a portion by open-handed several object models for common functions similar measurement, metering, monitoring…etc., there are motionless certain missing smithereens for building a multiplicity of functions for household appliances like tuning the temperature of an electric heater or refrigerator.

Keywords: IEC 61850, RCMC, HCMC, DER Unit Controller.

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4236 An Analysis of Classification of Imbalanced Datasets by Using Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique

Authors: Ghada A. Alfattni

Abstract:

Analysing unbalanced datasets is one of the challenges that practitioners in machine learning field face. However, many researches have been carried out to determine the effectiveness of the use of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to address this issue. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the effectiveness of the SMOTE over different models on unbalanced datasets. Three classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbour) were tested with multiple datasets, then the same datasets were oversampled by using SMOTE and applied again to the three models to compare the differences in the performances. Results of experiments show that the highest number of nearest neighbours gives lower values of error rates. 

Keywords: Imbalanced datasets, SMOTE, machine learning, logistic regression, support vector machine, nearest neighbour.

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4235 Lateral Crushing of Square and Rectangular Metallic Tubes under Different Quasi-Static Conditions

Authors: Sajjad Dehghanpour, Ali Yousefi

Abstract:

Impact is one of very important subjects which always have been considered in mechanical science. Nature of impact is such that which makes its control a hard task. Therefore it is required to present the transfer of impact to other vulnerable part of a structure, when it is necessary, one of the best method of absorbing energy of impact, is by using Thin-walled tubes these tubes collapses under impact and with absorption of energy, it prevents the damage to other parts.Purpose of recent study is to survey the deformation and energy absorption of tubes with different type of cross section (rectangular or square) and with similar volumes, height, mean cross section thickness, and material under loading with different speeds. Lateral loading of tubes are quasi-static type and beside as numerical analysis, also experimental experiences has been performed to evaluate the accuracy of the results. Results from the surveys is indicates that in a same conditions which mentioned above, samples with square cross section ,absorb more energy compare to rectangular cross section, and also by increscent in speed of loading, energy absorption would be more.

Keywords: absorbed energy, lateral loading, quasi-static.

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4234 An Approach to Task Modeling for User Interface Design

Authors: Costin Pribeanu

Abstract:

The model-based approach to user interface design relies on developing separate models capturing various aspects about users, tasks, application domain, presentation and dialog structures. This paper presents a task modeling approach for user interface design and aims at exploring mappings between task, domain and presentation models. The basic idea of our approach is to identify typical configurations in task and domain models and to investigate how they relate each other. A special emphasis is put on applicationspecific functions and mappings between domain objects and operational task structures. In this respect, we will address two layers in task decomposition: a functional (planning) layer and an operational layer.

Keywords: task modeling, user interface design, unit tasks, basic tasks, operational task model.

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4233 Modeling Exponential Growth Activity Using Technology: A Research with Bachelor of Business Administration Students

Authors: V. Vargas-Alejo, L. E. Montero-Moguel

Abstract:

Understanding the concept of function has been important in mathematics education for many years. In this study, the models built by a group of five business administration and accounting undergraduate students when carrying out a population growth activity are analyzed. The theoretical framework is the Models and Modeling Perspective. The results show how the students included tables, graphics, and algebraic representations in their models. Using technology was useful to interpret, describe, and predict the situation. The first model, the students built to describe the situation, was linear. After that, they modified and refined their ways of thinking; finally, they created exponential growth. Modeling the activity was useful to deep on mathematical concepts such as covariation, rate of change, and exponential function also to differentiate between linear and exponential growth.

Keywords: Covariation reasoning, exponential function, modeling, representations.

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4232 Agent-Based Simulation of Simulating Anticipatory Systems – Classification

Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

The present paper is oriented to classification and application of agent technique in simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. The main ideas root in the fact that the best way for description of computer simulation models is the technique of describing the simulated system itself (and the translation into the computer code is provided as automatic), and that the anticipation itself is often nested.

Keywords: Agents, Anticipatory systems, Discrete eventsimulation, Simula, Taxonomy.

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4231 Comparison of the Thermal Characteristics of Induction Motor, Switched Reluctance Motor and Inset Permanent Magnet Motor for Electric Vehicle Application

Authors: Sadeep Sasidharan, T. B. Isha

Abstract:

Modern day electric vehicles require compact high torque/power density motors for electric propulsion. This necessitates proper thermal management of the electric motors. The main focus of this paper is to compare the steady state thermal analysis of a conventional 20 kW 8/6 Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) with that of an Induction Motor and Inset Permanent Magnet (IPM) motor of the same rating. The goal is to develop a proper thermal model of the three types of models for Finite Element Thermal Analysis. JMAG software is used for the development and simulation of the thermal models. The results show that the induction motor is subjected to more heating when used for electric vehicle application constantly, compared to the SRM and IPM.

Keywords: SRM, induction motor, IPM, thermal analysis, loss models, electric vehicles.

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4230 Pareidolia and Perception of Anger in Vehicle Styles: Survey Results

Authors: Alan S. Hoback

Abstract:

Most people see human faces in car front and back ends because of the process of pareidolia. 96 people were surveyed to see how many of them saw a face in the vehicle styling. Participants were aged 18 to 72 years. 94% of the participants saw faces in the front-end design of production models. All participants that recognized faces indicated that most styles showed some degree of an angry expression. It was found that women were more likely to see faces in inanimate objects. However, with respect to whether women were more likely to perceive anger in the vehicle design, the results need further clarification. Survey responses were correlated to the design features of vehicles to determine what cues the respondents were likely looking at when responding. Whether the features looked anthropomorphic was key to anger perception. Features such as the headlights which could represent eyes and the air intake that could represent a mouth had high correlations to trends in scores. Results are compared among models, makers, by groupings of body styles classifications for the top 12 brands sold in the US, and by year for the top 20 models sold in the US in 2016. All of the top models sold increased in perception of an angry expression over the last 20 years or since the model was introduced, but the relative change varied by body style grouping.

Keywords: Aggressive driving, face recognition, road rage, vehicle styling.

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4229 Deformation Mechanisms at Elevated Temperatures: Influence of Momenta and Energy in the Single Impact Test

Authors: Harald Rojacz, Markus Varga, Horst Winkelmann

Abstract:

Within this work High Temperature Single Impact Studies were performed to evaluate deformation mechanisms at different energy and momentum levels. To show the influence of different microstructures and hardness levels and their response to single impacts four different materials were tested at various temperatures up to 700°C. One carbide reinforced NiCrBSi based Metal Matrix Composite and three different steels were tested. The aim of this work is to determine critical energies for fracture appearance and the materials response at different energy and momenta levels. Critical impact loadings were examined at elevated temperatures to limit operating conditions in impact dominated regimes at elevated temperatures. The investigations on the mechanisms were performed using different means of microscopy at the surface and in metallographic cross sections. Results indicate temperature dependence of the occurrence of cracks in hardphase rich materials, such as Metal Matrix Composites High Speed Steels and the influence of different impact momenta at constant energies on the deformation of different steels.

Keywords: Deformation, High Temperature, Metal Matrix Composite, Single Impact Test, Steel.

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4228 EML-Estimation of Multivariate t Copulas with Heuristic Optimization

Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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4227 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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4226 Matching on Bipartite Graphs with Applications to School Course Registration Systems

Authors: Zhihan Li

Abstract:

Nowadays, most universities use the course enrollment system considering students’ registration orders. However, the students’ preference level to certain courses is also one important factor to consider. In this research, the possibility of applying a preference-first system has been discussed and analyzed compared to the order-first system. A bipartite graph is applied to resemble the relationship between students and courses they tend to register. With the graph set up, we apply Ford-Fulkerson (F.F.) Algorithm to maximize parings between two sets of nodes, in our case, students and courses. Two models are proposed in this paper: the one considered students’ order first, and the one considered students’ preference first. By comparing and contrasting the two models, we highlight the usability of models which potentially leads to better designs for school course registration systems.

Keywords: Bipartite graph, Ford-Fulkerson Algorithm, graph theory, maximum matching.

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4225 Packing Theory for Natural and Crushed Aggregate to Obtain the Best Mix of Aggregate: Research and Development

Authors: Mohammed H. Mohammed, Mats Emborg, Roland Pusch, Sven Knutsson

Abstract:

Concrete performance is strongly affected by the particle packing degree since it determines the distribution of the cementitious component and the interaction of mineral particles. By using packing theory designers will be able to select optimal aggregate materials for preparing concrete with low cement content, which is beneficial from the point of cost. Optimum particle packing implies minimizing porosity and thereby reducing the amount of cement paste needed to fill the voids between the aggregate particles, taking also the rheology of the concrete into consideration. For reaching good fluidity superplasticizers are required. The results from pilot tests at Luleå University of Technology (LTU) show various forms of the proposed theoretical models, and the empirical approach taken in the study seems to provide a safer basis for developing new, improved packing models.

Keywords: Aggregate mix, Computer program, Concrete mix design, Models of packing.

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