Search results for: Traffic prediction

Authors: Helyane B. Borges, Julio Cesar Nievola

Abstract:

Hierarchical classification is a problem with applications in many areas as protein function prediction where the dates are hierarchically structured. Therefore, it is necessary the development of algorithms able to induce hierarchical classification models. This paper presents experimenters using the algorithm for hierarchical classification called Multi-label Hierarchical Classification using a Competitive Neural Network (MHC-CNN). It was tested in ten datasets the Gene Ontology (GO) Cellular Component Domain. The results are compared with the Clus-HMC and Clus-HSC using the hF-Measure.

Keywords: Hierarchical Classification, Competitive Neural Network, Global Classifier.

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Authors: Bhavneet Sidhu, Hardeep Singh

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Cellular networks provide voice and data services to the users with mobility. To deliver services to the mobile users, the cellular network is capable of tracking the locations of the users, and allowing user movement during the conversations. These capabilities are achieved by the location management. Location management in mobile communication systems is concerned with those network functions necessary to allow the users to be reached wherever they are in the network coverage area. In a cellular network, a service coverage area is divided into smaller areas of hexagonal shape, referred to as cells. The cellular concept was introduced to reuse the radio frequency. Continued expansion of cellular networks, coupled with an increasingly restricted mobile spectrum, has established the reduction of communication overhead as a highly important issue. Much of this traffic is used in determining the precise location of individual users when relaying calls, with the field of location management aiming to reduce this overhead through prediction of user location. This paper describes and compares various location management schemes in the cellular networks.

Keywords: Cellular Networks, Location Area, MobilityManagement, Paging.

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Authors: S. Umarani, D. Sharmila

Abstract:

A Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to cyber security. It originates from the network layer or the application layer of compromised/attacker systems which are connected to the network. The impact of this attack ranges from the simple inconvenience to use a particular service to causing major failures at the targeted server. When there is heavy traffic flow to a target server, it is necessary to classify the legitimate access and attacks. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to detect DDoS attacks from the traces of traffic flow. An access matrix is created from the traces. As the access matrix is multi dimensional, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the attributes used for detection. Two classifiers Naive Bayes and K-Nearest neighborhood are used to classify the traffic as normal or abnormal. The performance of the classifier with PCA selected attributes and actual attributes of access matrix is compared by the detection rate and False Positive Rate (FPR).

Keywords: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, Application layer DDoS, DDoS Detection, K- Nearest neighborhood classifier, Naive Bayes Classifier, Principle Component Analysis.

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Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

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The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: Discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes, Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer.

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Authors: Henok Hailemariam, Frank Wuttke

Abstract:

Collapsible soils are weak soils that appear to be stable in their natural state, normally dry condition, but rapidly deform under saturation (wetting), thus generating large and unexpected settlements which often yield disastrous consequences for structures unwittingly built on such deposits. In this study, a prediction model for the relative subsidence of stressed collapsible soils based on dielectric permittivity measurement is presented. Unlike most existing methods for soil subsidence prediction, this model does not require moisture content as an input parameter, thus providing the opportunity to obtain accurate estimation of the relative subsidence of collapsible soils using dielectric measurement only. The prediction model is developed based on an existing relative subsidence prediction model (which is dependent on soil moisture condition) and an advanced theoretical frequency and temperature-dependent electromagnetic mixing equation (which effectively removes the moisture content dependence of the original relative subsidence prediction model). For large scale sub-surface soil exploration purposes, the spatial sub-surface soil dielectric data over wide areas and high depths of weak (collapsible) soil deposits can be obtained using non-destructive high frequency electromagnetic (HF-EM) measurement techniques such as ground penetrating radar (GPR). For laboratory or small scale in-situ measurements, techniques such as an open-ended coaxial line with widely applicable time domain reflectometry (TDR) or vector network analysers (VNAs) are usually employed to obtain the soil dielectric data. By using soil dielectric data obtained from small or large scale non-destructive HF-EM investigations, the new model can effectively predict the relative subsidence of weak soils without the need to extract samples for moisture content measurement. Some of the resulting benefits are the preservation of the undisturbed nature of the soil as well as a reduction in the investigation costs and analysis time in the identification of weak (problematic) soils. The accuracy of prediction of the presented model is assessed by conducting relative subsidence tests on a collapsible soil at various initial soil conditions and a good match between the model prediction and experimental results is obtained.

Keywords: Collapsible soil, relative subsidence, dielectric permittivity, moisture content.

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Authors: G. R. Rameshkumar, B. V. A Rao, K. P. Ramachandran

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Misalignment and unbalance are the major concerns in rotating machinery. When the power supply to any rotating system is cutoff, the system begins to lose the momentum gained during sustained operation and finally comes to rest. The exact time period from when the power is cutoff until the rotor comes to rest is called Coast Down Time. The CDTs for different shaft cutoff speeds were recorded at various misalignment and unbalance conditions. The CDT reduction percentages were calculated for each fault and there is a specific correlation between the CDT reduction percentage and the severity of the fault. In this paper, radial basis network, a new generation of artificial neural networks, has been successfully incorporated for the prediction of CDT for misalignment and unbalance conditions. Radial basis network has been found to be successful in the prediction of CDT for mechanical faults in rotating machinery.

Keywords: Coast Down Time, Misalignment, Unbalance, Artificial Neural Networks, Radial Basis Network.

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Authors: Dursun Aydin

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This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.

Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.

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Authors: S. M. Gupta, Vanita Aggarwal, Som Nath Sachdeva

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The work reported through this paper is an experimental work conducted on High Performance Concrete (HPC) with super plasticizer with the aim to develop some models suitable for prediction of compressive strength of HPC mixes. In this study, the effect of varying proportions of fly ash (0% to 50% @ 10% increment) on compressive strength of high performance concrete has been evaluated. The mix designs studied were M30, M40 and M50 to compare the effect of fly ash addition on the properties of these concrete mixes. In all eighteen concrete mixes that have been designed, three were conventional concretes for three grades under discussion and fifteen were HPC with fly ash with varying percentages of fly ash. The concrete mix designing has been done in accordance with Indian standard recommended guidelines. All the concrete mixes have been studied in terms of compressive strength at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days, and 365 days. All the materials used have been kept same throughout the study to get a perfect comparison of values of results. The models for compressive strength prediction have been developed using Linear Regression method (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Leave-One-Out Validation (LOOV) methods.

Keywords: ANN, concrete mixes, compressive strength, fly ash, high performance concrete, linear regression, strength prediction models.

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Authors: Abdulqader M. Mohsen, Ahamad Tajudin Khader, Dhanesh Ramachandram, Abdullatif Ghallab

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The physical methods for RNA secondary structure prediction are time consuming and expensive, thus methods for computational prediction will be a proper alternative. Various algorithms have been used for RNA structure prediction including dynamic programming and metaheuristic algorithms. Musician's behaviorinspired harmony search is a recently developed metaheuristic algorithm which has been successful in a wide variety of complex optimization problems. This paper proposes a harmony search algorithm (HSRNAFold) to find RNA secondary structure with minimum free energy and similar to the native structure. HSRNAFold is compared with dynamic programming benchmark mfold and metaheuristic algorithms (RnaPredict, SetPSO and HelixPSO). The results showed that HSRNAFold is comparable to mfold and better than metaheuristics in finding the minimum free energies and the number of correct base pairs.

Keywords: Metaheuristic algorithms, dynamic programming algorithms, harmony search optimization, RNA folding, Minimum free energy.

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Authors: Mehran Garmehi, Yasser Mansouri

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There are two paradigms proposed to provide QoS for Internet applications: Integrated service (IntServ) and Differentiated service (DiffServ).Intserv is not appropriate for large network like Internet. Because is very complex. Therefore, to reduce the complexity of QoS management, DiffServ was introduced to provide QoS within a domain using aggregation of flow and per- class service. In theses networks QoS between classes is constant and it allows low priority traffic to be effected from high priority traffic, which is not suitable. In this paper, we proposed a fuzzy controller, which reduced the effect of low priority class on higher priority ones. Our simulations shows that, our approach reduces the latency dependency of low priority class on higher priority ones, in an effective manner.

Keywords: QoS, Differentiated Service (DiffServ), FuzzyController, Delay.

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Authors: A. Brahma

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Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the hardening of hydraulic materials. This study is concerned the modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic materials during hardening. The model developed takes consideration of the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes correctly.

Keywords: Drying, hydraulic concretes, shrinkage, modeling, prediction.

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: Tomato yields prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: Paratibha Aggarwal, Yogesh Aggarwal

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The paper presents the potential of fuzzy logic (FL-I) and neural network techniques (ANN-I) for predicting the compressive strength, for SCC mixtures. Six input parameters that is contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash, superplasticizer percentage and water-to-binder ratio and an output parameter i.e. 28- day compressive strength for ANN-I and FL-I are used for modeling. The fuzzy logic model showed better performance than neural network model.

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, compressive strength, prediction, neural network, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Ali Pirdavani, Tom Brijs, Tom Bellemans, Geert Wets, Koen Vanhoof

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Signalized intersections on high-volume arterials are often congested during peak hours, causing a decrease in through movement efficiency on the arterial. Much of the vehicle delay incurred at conventional intersections is caused by high left-turn demand. Unconventional intersection designs attempt to reduce intersection delay and travel time by rerouting left-turns away from the main intersection and replacing it with right-turn followed by Uturn. The proposed new type of U-turn intersection is geometrically designed with a raised island which provides a protected U-turn movement. In this study several scenarios based on different distances between U-turn and main intersection, traffic volume of major/minor approaches and percentage of left-turn volumes were simulated by use of AIMSUN, a type of traffic microsimulation software. Subsequently some models are proposed in order to compute travel time of each movement. Eventually by correlating these equations to some in-field collected data of some implemented U-turn facilities, the reliability of the proposed models are approved. With these models it would be possible to calculate travel time of each movement under any kind of geometric and traffic condition. By comparing travel time of a conventional signalized intersection with U-turn intersection travel time, it would be possible to decide on converting signalized intersections into this new kind of U-turn facility or not. However comparison of travel time is not part of the scope of this research. In this paper only travel time of this innovative U-turn facility would be predicted. According to some before and after study about the traffic performance of some executed U-turn facilities, it is found that commonly, this new type of U-turn facility produces lower travel time. Thus, evaluation of using this type of unconventional intersection should be seriously considered.

Keywords: Innovative U-turn facility, Microsimulation, Traveltime, Unconventional intersection design.

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Authors: Chetan R. Patel, G. J. Joshi

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Present study is carried out on six lane divided urban arterial road in Patna and Pune city of India. Both the road having distinct differences in terms of the vehicle composition and the road side parking. Arterial road in Patan city has 33% of non-motorized mode, whereas Pune arterial road dominated by 65% of Two wheeler. Also road side parking is observed in Patna city. The field studies using videography techniques are carried out for traffic data collection. Data are extracted for one minute duration for vehicle composition, speed variation and flow rate on selected arterial road of the two cities. Speed flow relationship is developed and capacity is determine. Equivalency factor in terms of dynamic car unit is determine to represent the vehicle is single unit. The variation in the capacity due to side friction, presence of non motorized traffic and effective utilization of lane width is compared at concluding remarks.

Keywords: Arterial Road, Capacity, Dynamic Equivalency Factor, Effect of Non motorized mode, Side friction.

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Authors: Sven Borén, Lisiana Nurhadi, Henrik Ny

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From a theoretical perspective, electric buses can be more sustainable and can be cheaper than fossil fuelled buses in city traffic. The authors have not found other studies based on actual urban public transport in Swedish winter climate. Further on, noise measurements from buses for the European market were found old. The aims of this follow-up study was therefore to test and possibly verify in a real-life environment how energy efficient and silent electric buses are, and then conclude on if electric buses are preferable to use in public transport. The Ebusco 2.0 electric bus, fitted with a 311 kWh battery pack, was used and the tests were carried out during November 2014-April 2015 in eight municipalities in the south of Sweden. Six tests took place in urban traffic and two took place in more of a rural traffic setting. The energy use for propulsion was measured via logging of the internal system in the bus and via an external charging meter. The average energy use turned out to be 8% less (0,96 kWh/km) than assumed in the earlier theoretical study. This rate allows for a 320 km range in public urban traffic. The interior of the bus was kept warm by a diesel heater (biodiesel will probably be used in a future operational traffic situation), which used 0,67 kWh/km in January. This verified that electric buses can be up to 25% cheaper when used in public transport in cities for about eight years. The noise was found to be lower, primarily during acceleration, than for buses with combustion engines in urban bus traffic. According to our surveys, most passengers and drivers appreciated the silent and comfortable ride and preferred electric buses rather than combustion engine buses. Bus operators and passenger transport executives were also positive to start using electric buses for public transport. The operators did however point out that procurement processes need to account for eventual risks regarding this new technology, along with personnel education. The study revealed that it is possible to establish a charging infrastructure for almost all studied bus lines. However, design of a charging infrastructure for each municipality requires further investigations, including electric grid capacity analysis, smart location of charging points, and tailored schedules to allow fast charging. In conclusion, electric buses proved to be a preferable alternative for all stakeholders involved in public bus transport in the studied municipalities. However, in order to electric buses to be a prominent support for sustainable development, they need to be charged either by stand-alone units or via an expansion of the electric grid, and the electricity should be made from new renewable sources.

Keywords: Sustainability, Electric, Bus, Noise, GreenCharge.

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Authors: V. Eramo, E. Miucci, A. Cianfrani, A. Germoni, M. Listanti

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The power consumption of an Optical Packet Switch equipped with SOA technology based Spanke switching fabric is evaluated. Sophisticated analytical models are introduced to evaluate the power consumption versus the offered traffic, the main switch parameters, and the used device characteristics. The impact of Amplifier Spontaneous Emission (ASE) noise generated by a transmission system on the power consumption is investigated. As a matter of example for 32×32 switches supporting 64 wavelengths and offered traffic equal to 0,8, the average energy consumption per bit is 5, 07 · 10-2 nJ/bit and increases if ASE noise introduced by the transmission systems is increased.

Keywords: Spanke, Amplifier Spontaneous Emission Noise, Power Consumption, Optical Packet Switch.

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Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, William X. S. Wong

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Corporate credit rating prediction is one of the most important topics, which has been studied by researchers in the last decade. Over the last decade, researchers are pushing the limit to enhance the exactness of the corporate credit rating prediction model by applying several data-driven tools including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) has been widely applied due to its good predictability. However, heuristics, for example, parameters of a kernel function, appropriate feature and instance subset, has become the main reason for the critics on MSVM, as they have dictate the MSVM architectural variables. This study presents a hybrid MSVM model that is intended to optimize all the parameter such as feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameter. Our model adopts genetic algorithm (GA) to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of MSVM.

Keywords: Corporate credit rating prediction, feature selection, genetic algorithms, instance selection, multiclass support vector machines.

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Authors: Madiajagan Muthaiyan, Neha Goel, Deepti Sunder Prakash

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This paper discusses about an intelligent system to be installed in ambulances providing professional support to the paramedics on board. A video conferencing device over mobile 4G services enables specialists virtually attending the patient being transferred to the hospital. The data centre holds detailed databases on the patients past medical history and hospitals with the specialists. It also hosts various software modules that compute the shortest traffic –less path to the closest hospital with the required facilities, on inputting the symptoms of the patient, on a real time basis.

Keywords: 4G mobile services, cloud computing, data centre, intelligent system, optimization, real time traffic reporting, SaaS, video conferencing.

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Authors: Ali Abdi Kordani, Meysam Rooyintan, Sid Mohammad Boroomandrad

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Nowadays, one the most important problems in megacities is public transportation and satisfying citizens from this system in order to decrease the traffic congestions and air pollution. Accordingly, to improve the transit passengers and increase the travel safety, new transportation systems such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), tram, and monorail have expanded that each one has different merits and demerits. That is why comparing different systems for a systematic selection of public transportation systems in a big city like Tehran, which has numerous problems in terms of traffic and pollution, is essential. In this paper, it is tried to investigate the advantages and feasibility of using monorail, tram and BRT systems, which are widely used in most of megacities in all over the world. In Tehran, by using SPSS statistical analysis software and TOPSIS method, these three modes are compared to each other and their results will be assessed. Experts, who are experienced in the transportation field, answer the prepared matrix questionnaire to select each public transportation mode (tram, monorail, and BRT). The results according to experts’ judgments represent that monorail has the first priority, Tram has the second one, and BRT has the third one according to the considered indices like execution costs, wasting time, depreciation, pollution, operation costs, travel time, passenger satisfaction, benefit to cost ratio and traffic congestion.

Keywords: Bus Rapid Transit, Costs, Monorail, Pollution, Tram.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

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Authors: Kifah Tout, Nisrine Sinno, Mohamad Mikati

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Many studies have focused on the nonlinear analysis of electroencephalography (EEG) mainly for the characterization of epileptic brain states. It is assumed that at least two states of the epileptic brain are possible: the interictal state characterized by a normal apparently random, steady-state EEG ongoing activity; and the ictal state that is characterized by paroxysmal occurrence of synchronous oscillations and is generally called in neurology, a seizure. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the epileptogenic process is still not clear completely especially the most challenging aspects of epileptology which is the anticipation of the seizure. Despite all the efforts we still don-t know how and when and why the seizure occurs. However actual studies bring strong evidence that the interictal-ictal state transition is not an abrupt phenomena. Findings also indicate that it is possible to detect a preseizure phase. Our approach is to use the neural network tool to detect interictal states and to predict from those states the upcoming seizure ( ictal state). Analysis of the EEG signal based on neural networks is used for the classification of EEG as either seizure or non-seizure. By applying prediction methods it will be possible to predict the upcoming seizure from non-seizure EEG. We will study the patients admitted to the epilepsy monitoring unit for the purpose of recording their seizures. Preictal, ictal, and post ictal EEG recordings are available on such patients for analysis The system will be induced by taking a body of samples then validate it using another. Distinct from the two first ones a third body of samples is taken to test the network for the achievement of optimum prediction. Several methods will be tried 'Backpropagation ANN' and 'RBF'.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), automatic prediction, epileptic seizures analysis, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Wenbin Zhang, Hantian Wu, Jian Tang

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An artificial neural network is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as: prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life, people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example, the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a soccer coach make an informed decision.

Keywords: General Regression Neural Network, Probabilistic Neural Networks, Neural function.

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Authors: Tahseen Al-Shaikhli, Halim Ceylan, Jonathan Weaver, Osman Nuri Çelik, Onur Gungor Sahin

Abstract:

A concept of uniform delay offset dependent mathematical optimization problem is derived as the main objective for this study using a differential evolution algorithm. Furthermore, the objectives are to control the coordination problem which mainly depends on offset selection, and to estimate the uniform delay based on the offset choice at each signalized intersection. The assumption is the periodic sinusoidal function for arrival and departure patterns. The cycle time is optimized at the entry links and the optimized value is used in the non-entry links as a common cycle time. The offset optimization algorithm is used to calculate the uniform delay at each link. The results are illustrated by using a case study and compared with the canonical uniform delay model derived by Webster and the highway capacity manual’s model. The findings show that the derived model minimizes the total uniform delay to almost half compared to conventional models; the mathematical objective function is robust; the algorithm convergence time is fast.

Keywords: Area traffic control, differential evolution, offset variable, sinusoidal periodic function, traffic flow, uniform delay.

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Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

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Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: L. Mirtskhulava, M. Khunjgurua, N. Lomineishvili, K. Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability.

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: Rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis.

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Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

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In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

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Authors: Omer Nebil Yaveroglu, Tolga Can

Abstract:

In this study, a high accuracy protein-protein interaction prediction method is developed. The importance of the proposed method is that it only uses sequence information of proteins while predicting interaction. The method extracts phylogenetic profiles of proteins by using their sequence information. Combining the phylogenetic profiles of two proteins by checking existence of homologs in different species and fitting this combined profile into a statistical model, it is possible to make predictions about the interaction status of two proteins. For this purpose, we apply a collection of pattern recognition techniques on the dataset of combined phylogenetic profiles of protein pairs. Support Vector Machines, Feature Extraction using ReliefF, Naive Bayes Classification, K-Nearest Neighborhood Classification, Decision Trees, and Random Forest Classification are the methods we applied for finding the classification method that best predicts the interaction status of protein pairs. Random Forest Classification outperformed all other methods with a prediction accuracy of 76.93%

Keywords: Protein Interaction Prediction, Phylogenetic Profile, SVM , ReliefF, Decision Trees, Random Forest Classification

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