Search results for: Risk area

Authors: Guilan Huang

Abstract:

In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: Geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factors study, spatial random sampling.

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Authors: Sanaeinejad, S. H.; A. Astaraei, . P. Mirhoseini.Mousavi, M. Ghaemi,

Abstract:

One of the main environmental problems which affect extensive areas in the world is soil salinity. Traditional data collection methods are neither enough for considering this important environmental problem nor accurate for soil studies. Remote sensing data could overcome most of these problems. Although satellite images are commonly used for these studies, however there are still needs to find the best calibration between the data and real situations in each specified area. Neyshaboor area, North East of Iran was selected as a field study of this research. Landsat satellite images for this area were used in order to prepare suitable learning samples for processing and classifying the images. 300 locations were selected randomly in the area to collect soil samples and finally 273 locations were reselected for further laboratory works and image processing analysis. Electrical conductivity of all samples was measured. Six reflective bands of ETM+ satellite images taken from the study area in 2002 were used for soil salinity classification. The classification was carried out using common algorithms based on the best composition bands. The results showed that the reflective bands 7, 3, 4 and 1 are the best band composition for preparing the color composite images. We also found out, that hybrid classification is a suitable method for identifying and delineation of different salinity classes in the area.

Keywords: Soil salinity, Remote sensing, Image processing, ETM+, Nyshaboor

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Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: Climate change, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities, risk perceptions.

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Authors: Mohd Yussni Hashim, Mohd Nazrul Roslan, Shahruddin Mahzan @ Mohd Zin, Saparudin Ariffin

Abstract:

Fiber cross sectional area value is a crucial factor in determining the strength properties of natural fiber. Furthermore, unlike synthetic fiber, a diameter and cross sectional area of natural fiber has a large variation along and between the fibers. This study aims to determine the main and interaction effects of alkali treatment conditions which influence kenaf bast fiber mean cross sectional area. Three alkali treatment conditions at two different levels were selected. The conditions setting were alkali concentrations at 2 and 10 w/v %; fiber immersed temperature at room temperature and 100⁰C; and fiber immersed duration for 30 and 480 minutes. Untreated kenaf fiber was used as a control unit. Kenaf bast fiber bundle mounting tab was prepared according to ASTM C1557-03. Cross sectional area was measured using a Leica video analyzer. The study result showed that kenaf fiber bundle mean cross sectional area was reduced 6.77% to 29.88% after alkali treatment. From analysis of variance, it shows that interaction of alkali concentration and immersed time has a higher magnitude at 0.1619 compared to alkali concentration and immersed temperature interaction which was 0.0896. For the main effect, alkali concentration factor contributes to the higher magnitude at 0.1372 which indicated are decrease pattern of variability when the level was change from lower to higher level. Then, it was followed by immersed temperature at 0.1261 and immersed time at 0.0696 magnitudes.

Keywords: Natural fiber, kenaf bast fiber bundles, alkali treatment, cross sectional area.

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Authors: Jia Xu

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There is a lot of bottom space in the teaching area of Zijingang Campus of Zhejiang University, which benefits to the ventilation, heat dissipation, circulation, partition of quiet and noisy areas and diversification of spaces. Hangzhou is hot in summer but cold in winter, so teachers and students spend much less time in the bottom space of buildings in winter than in summer. Recently, depending on the teachers and students’ proposals, the school transformed the bottom space in the teaching area to provide space for relaxing, chatting and staying in winter. Surveying and analyzing the existing ways to transform, the paper researches deeply on the transformation projects of bottom space in the teaching buildings. It is believed that this paper can be a salutary lesson to make the bottom space in the teaching areas of universities richer and bring more diverse activities for teachers and students.

Keywords: Bottom space, teaching area, transformation, Zijingang Campus of Zhejiang University.

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Authors: T. Motsima

Abstract:

The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, risk factors, millennium development goals, breastfeeding, logistic regression.

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: Drone risk assessment, drone package delivery.

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Authors: Pimploi Tirastittam, Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom

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Nowadays the promotion of the public transportation system in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area is increased such as the “Free Bus for Thai Citizen” Campaign and the prospect of the several MRT       routes to increase the convenient and comfortable to the Bangkok Metropolitan area citizens. But citizens do not make full use of them it because the citizens are lack of the data and information and also the confident to the public transportation system of Thailand especially in the time and safety aspects. This research is the Public Transport Planning System by Dijkstra Algorithm: Case Study Bangkok Metropolitan Area by focusing on buses, BTS and MRT schedules/routes to give the most information to passengers. They can choose the way and the routes easily by using Dijkstra STAR Algorithm of Graph Theory which also shows the fare of the trip. This Application was evaluated by 30 normal users to find the mean and standard deviation of the developed system. Results of the evaluation showed that system is at a good level of satisfaction (4.20 and 0.40). From these results we can conclude that the system can be used properly and effectively according to the objective.

Keywords: Dijkstra Algorithm, Graph Theory, Shortest Route, Public Transport, Bangkok Metropolitan Area.

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Authors: Narayanan Sambu Potty , Mohammad Kabir B. Mohd Akram

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Structural Integrity Management (SIM) is important for the protection of offshore crew, environment, business assets and company and industry reputation. API RP 2A contained guidelines for assessment of existing platforms mostly for the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). ISO 19902 SIM framework also does not specifically cater for Malaysia. There are about 200 platforms in Malaysia with 90 exceeding their design life. The Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd (PCSB) uses the Asset Integrity Management System and the very subjective Risk based Inspection Program for these platforms. Petronas currently doesn-t have a standalone Petronas Technical Standard PTS-SIM. This study proposes a recommended practice for the SIM process for offshore structures in Malaysia, including studies by API and ISO and local elements such as the number of platforms, types of facilities, age and risk ranking. Case study on SMG-A platform in Sabah shows missing or scattered platform data and a gap in inspection history. It is to undergo a level 3 underwater inspection in year 2015.

Keywords: platform, assessment, integrity, risk based inspection.

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Authors: Libin Ouyang

Abstract:

China has experienced a very fast urbanization process in the past two decades. Due to the uncoordinated characteristics of regional development in China, a large number of people from rural areas or small towns have flooded into regional central cities, which are building new cities around them due to the shortage of construction land or the need for urban development. However, the construction of some new cities has not achieved the expected effect, the absorption capacity of industry and population is limited, and the phenomenon of capital and land waste is obvious. This paper takes Xixian New Area in Shaanxi Province, an inland area in Northwest China, as an example, and tries to analyze the reasons for the lack of vitality in Xixian New Area from the perspectives of land use layout and urban design. This paper will also select the Energy-Finance-Trade Start-up Area in Xixian New Area as an important research site, and study how to optimize the land use layout and urban design to ease the population of big cities, effectively solve the problems of big cities, improve the vitality and attractiveness of the new city, and promote the sustainable development of the new city. The study can provide reference for urban planning practitioners and policy makers, provide theoretical help for the construction of new cities in other underdeveloped regions of China, and provide certain case references for the construction of cities in other developing countries in the process of rapid urbanization.

Keywords: New city, land use layout, urban design, urban planning.

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Authors: Esmaeil Yasari, Abed Vahedi

Abstract:

The study was carried out to gather and identify medicinal plants their curative effects and the part of them which is used from the reservation area of Miankaleh. The region under study has an area of 68800 hectares situated 12 kilometers north of the city of Behshahr and northwest of the city of Gorgan. Results obtained showed that out of a total of 43 families, 125 genera, and 155 species found in the region, 33 families, 52 genera and 61 species (39% of all the species) belonged to medicinal plants, among which the class Asteraceae with 6 species and the class Chenopodiaceae with 5 species had the most medicinal species. The most used parts of the plants were the leaves with 31%, the whole plants with 19%, and the roots with 15%.

Keywords: Boispherical Reservation Area, Medicinal Plants, Miankaleh, Traditional medicine

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig, Rastko Zivanovic

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the Total Vector Error of an estimated Phasor as define in IEEE C37.118 standard within different medium access in Local Area Networks (LAN). Three different LAN models (CSMA/CD, CSMA/AMP and Switched Ethernet) are evaluated. The Total Vector Error of the estimated Phasor has been evaluated for the effect of Nodes Number under the standardized network Band-width values defined in IEC 61850-9-2 communication standard (i.e. 0.1, 1 and 10 Gbps).

Keywords: Phasor, Local Area Network, Total Vector Error, IEEE C37.118, IEC 61850.

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Authors: R. Keerativittatayut, B. Kaewkamnerdpong, J. Laothamatas, W. Sungkarat

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Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a promising technique to study the connectivity among brain regions and effects of stimuli through modeling neuronal interactions from time-series neuroimaging. The aim of this study is to study characteristics of a mirror neuron system (MNS) in elderly group (age: 60-70 years old). Twenty volunteers were MRI scanned with visual stimuli to study a functional brain network. DCM was employed to determine the mechanism of mirror neuron effects. The results revealed major activated areas including precentral gyrus, inferior parietal lobule, inferior occipital gyrus, and supplementary motor area. When visual stimuli were presented, the feed-forward connectivity from visual area to conjunction area was increased and forwarded to motor area. Moreover, the connectivity from the conjunction areas to premotor area was also increased. Such findings can be useful for future diagnostic process for elderly with diseases such as Parkinson-s and Alzheimer-s.

Keywords: Mirror Neuron System (MNS), Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM), Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI)

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Authors: S. B. Rushayati, R. Meilani, R. Hermawan

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A biosphere reserve is developed to create harmony amongst economic development, community development, and environmental protection, through partnership between human and nature. Giam Siak Kecil Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve (GSKBB BR) in Riau Province, Indonesia, is unique in that it has peat soil dominating the area, many springs essential for human livelihood, high biodiversity. Furthermore, it is the only biosphere reserve covering privately managed production forest areas. In this research, we aimed at analyzing the threat of deforestation and forest fire, and the potential of CO2 emission at GSKBB BR. We used Landsat image, arcView software, and ERDAS IMAGINE 8.5 Software to conduct spatial analysis of land cover and land use changes, calculated CO2 emission based on emission potential from each land cover and land use type, and exercised simple linear regression to demonstrate the relation between CO2 emission potential and deforestation. The result showed that, beside in the buffer zone and transition area, deforestation also occurred in the core area. Spatial analysis of land cover and land use changes from years 2010, 2012, and 2014 revealed that there were changes of land cover and land use from natural forest and industrial plantation forest to other land use types, such as garden, mixed garden, settlement, paddy fields, burnt areas, and dry agricultural land. Deforestation in core area, particularly at the Giam Siak Kecil Wildlife Reserve and Bukit Batu Wildlife Reserve, occurred in the form of changes from natural forest in to garden, mixed garden, shrubs, swamp shrubs, dry agricultural land, open area, and burnt area. In the buffer zone and transition area, changes also happened, what once swamp forest changed into garden, mixed garden, open area, shrubs, swamp shrubs, and dry agricultural land. Spatial analysis on land cover and land use changes indicated that deforestation rate in the biosphere reserve from 2010 to 2014 had reached 16 119 ha/year. Beside deforestation, threat toward the biosphere reserve area also came from forest fire. The occurrence of forest fire in 2014 had burned 101 723 ha of the area, in which 9 355 ha of core area, and 92 368 ha of buffer zone and transition area. Deforestation and forest fire had increased CO2 emission as much as 24 903 855 ton/year.

Keywords: Biosphere reserve, CO2 emission, deforestation, forest fire.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, Sharpe ratio.

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Authors: S. Rasekhinia, S. Aghanajafizadeh, K. Eslami

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We studied the selection of nest sites by Persian ground Jay (Podoces pleskei), in a semi -desert central Iran. Habitat variables such as plant species number, height of plant species, vegetation percent and distance to water sources of nest sites were compared with randomly selected non- used sites. The results showed that the most important factors influencing nesting site selection were total vegetation percent and number of shrubs (Zgophyllum eurypterum and Atraphaxis spinosa). The mean vegetation percent of 20 area selected by Persian Ground Jay was (4.41+ 0.17), which was significantly larger than that of the non – selected area (2.08 + 0.06). The number of Zygophyllum eurypterum (1.13+ 0.01) and Atraphaxis spinosa (1.36+ 0.10) were also significantly higher compared with the control area (0.43+ 0.07) and (0.58+ 0.9) respectively.

Keywords: Persian Ground Jay, Habitat variables, Iran.

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Authors: C. Caçador, M. J. Reis Lima, J. Oliveira, M. J. Veiga, M. Teixeira Veríssimo, F. Ramos, M. C. Castilho, E. Teixeira-Lemos

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In the present study we evaluated the nutritional status of 214 institutionalized elderly residents of both genders, aged 65 years and older of 11 care homes located in the district of Viseu (center of Portugal). The evaluation was based on anthropometric measurements and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score.

The mean age of the subjects was 82.3 ± 6.1 years-old. Most of the elderly residents were female (72.0%). The majority had 4 years of formal education (51.9%) and was widowed (74.3%) or married (14.0%).

Men presented a mean age of 81.2±8.5 years-old, weight 69.3±14.5 kg and BMI 25.33±6.5 kg/m². In women, the mean age was 84.5±8.2 years-old, weight 61.2±14.7 kg and BMI 27.43±5.6 kg/m².

The evaluation of the nutritional status using the MNA score showed that 24.0% of the residents show a risk of undernutrition and 76.0% of them were well nourished.

There was a high prevalence of obese (24.8%) and overweight residents (33.2%) according to the BMI. 7.5% were considered underweight.

We also found that according to their waist circumference measurements 88.3% of the residents were at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 64.0% of them presented very high risk for CVD (WC≥88 cm for women and WC ≥102 cm for men).

The present study revealed the coexistence of a dual form of malnutrition (undernourished and overweight) among the institutionalized Portuguese concomitantly with an excess of abdominal adiposity. The high prevalence of residents at high risk for CVD should not be overlooked.

Given the vulnerability of the group of institutionalized elderly, our study highlights the importance of the classification of nutritional status based on both instruments: the BMI and the MNA.

Keywords: Nutritional status, MNA, BMI, elderly.

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Authors: Xin-Yu Shih, Yue-Qu Liu, Hong-Ru Chou

Abstract:

This paper presents a low-area and fully-reconfigurable Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) hardware design for 3GPP-LTE communication standard. It can fully support 32 different FFT sizes, up to 2048 FFT points. Besides, a special processing element is developed for making reconfigurable computing characteristics possible, while first-in first-out (FIFO) scheduling scheme design technique is proposed for hardware-friendly FIFO resource arranging. In a synthesis chip realization via TSMC 40 nm CMOS technology, the hardware circuit only occupies core area of 0.2325 mm² and dissipates 233.5 mW at maximal operating frequency of 250 MHz.

Keywords: Reconfigurable, fast Fourier transform, single-path delay feedback, 3GPP-LTE.

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Authors: Jin-Tae Lee, Jung-Hoon Suh, Sang-Soo Jang, Jae-Il Lee

Abstract:

Information and communication service providers (ICSP) that are significant in size and provide Internet-based services take administrative, technical, and physical protection measures via the information security check service (ISCS). These protection measures are the minimum action necessary to secure the stability and continuity of the information and communication services (ICS) that they provide. Thus, information assets are essential to providing ICS, and deciding the relative importance of target assets for protection is a critical procedure. The risk analysis model designed to decide the relative importance of information assets, which is described in this study, evaluates information assets from many angles, in order to choose which ones should be given priority when it comes to protection. Many-sided risk analysis (MSRS) grades the importance of information assets, based on evaluation of major security check items, evaluation of the dependency on the information and communication facility (ICF) and influence on potential incidents, and evaluation of major items according to their service classification, in order to identify the ISCS target. MSRS could be an efficient risk analysis model to help ICSPs to identify their core information assets and take information protection measures first, so that stability of the ICS can be ensured.

Keywords: Information Asset, Information CommunicationFacility, Evaluation, ISCS (Information Security Check Service), Evaluation, Grade.

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Ouldouz Bakhshi Rad

Abstract:

Gully erosion is a widespread and often dramatic form of soil erosion caused by water during and immediately after heavy rainfall. It occurs when flowing surface water is channelled across unprotected land and washes away the soil along the drainage lines. The formation of gully is influenced by various factors, including climate, drainage surface area, slope gradient, vegetation cover, land use, and soil properties. It is a very important problem in semi-arid regions, where soils have lower organic matter and are weakly aggregated. Intensive agriculture and tillage along the slope can accelerate soil erosion by water in the region. There is little information on the development of gully erosion in agricultural rainfed areas. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the relationship between gully erosion and morphometric characteristics of the drainage area and the effects of soil properties and soil management factors (land use and tillage method) on gully development. A field study was done in a 900 km2 agricultural area in Hshtroud township located in the south of East Azerbaijan province, NW Iran. Toward this, 222 gullies created in rainfed lands were found in the area. Some properties of gullies, consisting of length, width, depth, height difference, cross section area, and volume, were determined. Drainage areas for each or some gullies were determined, and their boundaries were drawn. Additionally, the surface area of each drainage, land use, tillage direction, and soil properties that may affect gully formation were determined. The soil erodibility factor (K) defined in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was estimated based on five soil properties (silt and very fine sand, coarse sand, organic matter, soil structure code, and soil permeability). Gully development in each drainage area was quantified using its volume and soil loss. The dependency of gully development on drainage area characteristics (surface area, land use, tillage direction, and soil properties) was determined using correlation matrix analysis. Based on the results, gully length was the most important morphometric characteristic indicating the development of gully erosion in the lands. Gully development in the area was related to slope gradient (r = -0.26), surface area (r = 0.71), the area of rainfed lands (r = 0.23), and the area of rainfed tilled along the slope (r = 0.24). Nevertheless, its correlation with the area of pasture and soil erodibility factor (K) was not significant. Among the characteristics of drainage area, surface area is the major factor controlling gully volume in the agricultural land. No significant correlation was found between gully erosion and soil erodibility factor (K) estimated by the USLE. It seems the estimated soil erodibility cannot describe the susceptibility of the study soils to the gully erosion process. In these soils, aggregate stability and soil permeability are the two soil physical properties that affect the actual soil erodibility and in consequence, these soil properties can control gully erosion in the rainfed lands. 

Keywords: Agricultural area, gully properties, soil structure, USLE, Universal Soil Loss Equation.

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Authors: M. J. Kao, S.F. Chang, C.C. Chen, C.G. Kuo

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This paper aims to fabricated high quality anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) film by anodization method. AAO pore size, pore density, and film thickness can be controlled in 10~500 nm, 108~1011 pore．cm-2, and 1~100 μm. AAO volume and surface area can be computed based on structural parameters such as thickness, pore size, pore density, and sample size. Base on the thetorical calculation, AAO has 100 μm thickness with 15 nm, 60 nm, and 500 nm pore diameters AAO surface areas are 1225.2 cm2, 3204.4 cm2, and 549.7 cm2, respectively. The large unit surface area which is useful for adsorption application. When AAO adsorbed pH indictor of bromphenol blue presented a sensitive pH detection of solution change. This testing method can further be used for the precise measurement of biotechnology, convenience measurement of industrial engineering.

Keywords: AAO, Pore, Surface area, Adsorption, Indicator

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: Activity-based cost estimating, Cost estimation, ETICS, Life cycle costing.

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Authors: Zeinep A. Berkimbayeva, Almagul T. Mansharipova, Elmira M. Khussainova, Leyla B. Djansugurova

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It is believed that DNA damaging toxic metabolites contributes to the development of different pathological conditions. To prevent harmful influence of toxic agents, cells developed number of protecting mechanisms, such as enzymatic reaction of detoxification of reactive metabolites and repair of DNA damage. The aim of the study was to examine the association between polymorphism of GSTT1/GSTM1 and XRCC1/3 genes and coronary artery disease (CAD) incidence. To examine a polymorphism of these genes in CAD susceptibility in patients and controls, PCR based genotyping assay was performed. For GST genes, frequency of GSTM1 null genotype among CAD affected group was significantly increased than in control group (P<0.001). Frequencies of the GSTT1 null and positive alleles are almost equal in both groups (P>0.1). We found that neither XRCC1 Arg399Gln nor XRCC3 Thr241Met were associated with CAD risk. Obtained data suggests that GSTM1 null genotype carriers are more susceptible to CAD development.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, DNA reparation, gene polymorphism, risk factors, xenobiotic detoxification.

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Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

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The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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Authors: H. B. Nguendo Yongsi, Thora M. Herrmann, A. Lutumba Ntetu, Rémy Sietchiping, Christopher Bryant

Abstract:

Health problems linked to urban growth are current major concerns of developing countries. In 2002 and 2005, an interdisciplinary program “Populations et Espaces ├á Risques SANitaires" (PERSAN) was set up under the patronage of the Development and Research Institute. Centered on health in Cameroon-s urban environment, the program mainly sought to (i) identify diarrhoea risk factors in Yaoundé, (ii) to measure their prevalence and apprehend their spatial distribution. The crosssectional epidemiological study that was carried out revealed a diarrheic prevalence of 14.4% (437 cases of diarrhoea on the 3,034 children examined). Also, among risk factors studied, household refuse management methods used by city dwellers were statistically associated to these diarrhoeas. Moreover, it happened that levels of diarrhoeal attacks varied consistently from one neighbourhood to another because of the discrepancy urbanization process of the Yaoundé metropolis.

Keywords: Diarrhea, health risk, household refuses handling, sanitation, Yaoundé.

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Authors: Sadia Iqbal, Faheem Iqbal, Furqan Iqbal

Abstract:

Efficient utilization of existing water is a pressing need for Pakistan. Due to rising population, reduction in present storage capacity and poor delivery efficiency of 30 to 40% from canal. A study to evaluate an irrigation system in the cotton-wheat zone of Pakistan, after the watercourse lining was conducted. The study is made on the basis of cropping pattern and salinity to evaluate the system. This study employed an index-based approach of using Geographic information system with field data. The satellite images of different years were use to examine the effective area. Several combinations of the ratio of signals received in different spectral bands were used for development of this index. Near Infrared and Thermal IR spectral bands proved to be most effective as this combination helped easy detection of salt affected area and cropping pattern of the study area. Result showed that 9.97% area under salinity in 1992, 9.17% in 2000 and it left 2.29% in year 2005. Similarly in 1992, 45% area is under vegetation it improves to 56% and 65% in 2000 and 2005 respectively. On the basis of these results evaluation is done 30% performance is increase after the watercourse improvement.

Keywords: Salinity, remote sensing index, salinity index, cropping pattern.

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Authors: Saowapa Phaithayawat

Abstract:

The objectives of study are the following: To study the way of life in terms of one hundred years co-existence of the Muslim and local community in this area 2) To analyze factors affect to this community with happy co-existence. The study requires quantitative research to study a history together with the study of humanity. The result of this study showed that the area of Petchburi 7 community is an ancient area which has owned by the Muslim for almost 100 years. There is a sanctuary as & center of unity. Later Bangkok becomes developed and provides more infrastructures like motorway and other transportation: however, the owners of lands in this community still keep their lands and build many buildings to run business. With this purpose, there are many non-Muslim people come to live here with co-existence. Not only are they convenient to work but also easy to transport by sky train. There are factors that make them live harmonious as following: 1) All Muslims in this area are strict to follow their rules and allocate their community for business. 2) All people, who come and live here, are middle-aged and working men and women. They, rent rooms closed to their work. 3) There are Muslim food and desserts, especially Roti, the popular fried flour, and local Chachak, tea originated from the south of Thailand. All these food and desserts are famous for working men and women to home and join after work 4) All Muslim in this area are independent to lead their own lives although a society changes rapidly.

Keywords: Co-existence, Muslim and other group of people, the ancient community.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

Abstract:

This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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Authors: M. Kucukali Ozturk, B. Nergis, C. Candan

Abstract:

Air permeability plays an important role for applications such as filtration, thermal and acoustic insulation. The study discussed in this paper was conducted in an attempt to investigate air permeability property of various combinations of nonwovens. The PROWHITE air permeability tester was used for the measurement of the air permeability of the samples in accordance with the relevant standards and a comparative study of the results were made. It was found that the fabric mass per unit area was closely related to the air-permeability. The air permeability decreased with the increase in mass per unit area. Additionally, the air permeability of nonwoven fabrics decreased with the increase in thickness. Moreover, air permeability of multilayered SMS nonwoven structures was lower than those of single layered ones.

Keywords: Air permeability, mass per unit area, nonwoven structure, polypropylene nonwoven, thickness.

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

Abstract:

A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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