Search results for: incremental lifetime cancer risk

Authors: Dae Gon Woo, Han Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim, Dong Jin Seo, In Deok Kong, Chang Yong Ko

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Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID) affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. Emotional stress and obesity have been associated with increased reporting of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, but the relationship between FGID and risk factors (emotional stress or obesity) is unclear. Our aim was to assess the changes of the mechanical characteristics on the gastrointestinal tracts of the mentally fatigued obese and normal rat models. Finally, using the physical characteristics with micro-indentation test, we made a close investigation into the relation between FGID and risk factors quantitatively.

Keywords: Functional gastrointestinal disorders, Risk Factors, Mechanical Characteristics, Gastrointestinal Tract.

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Authors: Rezvan Najafi, Korosh Heydari, Massoud Saidijam

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5-FU is a chemotherapeutic agent that has been used in colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment. However, it is usually associated with the acquired resistance, which decreases the therapeutic effects of 5-FU. miR-200c is involved in chemotherapeutic drug resistance, but its mechanism is not fully understood. In this study, the effect of inhibition of miR-200c in sensitivity of HCT-116 CRC cells to 5-FU was evaluated. HCT-116 cells were transfected with LNA-anti- miR-200c for 48 h. mRNA expression of miR-200c was evaluated using quantitative real- time PCR. The protein expression of phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) and E-cadherin were analyzed by western blotting. Annexin V and propidium iodide staining assay were applied for apoptosis detection. The caspase-3 activation was evaluated by an enzymatic assay. The results showed LNA-anti-miR-200c inhibited the expression of PTEN and E-cadherin protein, apoptosis and activation of caspase 3 compared with control cells. In conclusion, these results suggest that miR-200c as a prognostic marker can overcome to 5-FU chemoresistance in CRC.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer, miR-200c, 5-FU resistance, E-cadherin, PTEN.

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: Asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index.

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Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco

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The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.

Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Watchara Surawong, Cheema Soralumn

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This research work is concerned with the life cycle assessment (LCA) of an expressway, as well as its infrastructure, in Thailand. The life cycle of an expressway encompasses the raw material acquisition phase, the construction phase, the use or service phase, the rehabilitation phase, and finally the demolition and disposal phase. The LCA in this research was carried out using CML baseline 2000 and in accordance with the ISO 14040 standard. A functional unit refers to transportation of one person over one kilometer of a 3-lane expressway with a 50-year lifetime. This research has revealed that the construction phase produced the largest proportion of the environmental impact (81.46%), followed by the service, rehabilitation, demolition and disposal phases and transportation at 11.97%, 3.72% 0.33% and 2.52%, respectively. For the expressway under study, the total carbon footprint over its lifetime is equivalent to 245,639 tons CO2-eq per 1 kilometer functional unit, with the phases of construction, service, rehabilitation, demolition and disposal and transportation contributing 153,690; 73,773; 3693, 755 and 13,728 tons CO2-eq, respectively. The findings could be adopted as a benchmark against which the environmental impacts of future similar projects can be measured.

Keywords: Environmental impact assessment, Life cycle assessment, LCA, Expressway passenger transport service, Carbon footprint, Eco-friendly expressway.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik, Ayten Atasoy

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This paper investigates successful sub-bands of wave atom transform via classification of mammograms, when the coefficients of sub-bands are used as features. A computer-aided diagnosis system is constructed by using wave atom transform, support vector machine and k-nearest neighbor classifiers. Two-class classification is studied in detail using two data sets, separately. The successful sub-bands are determined according to the accuracy rates, coefficient numbers, and sensitivity rates.

Keywords: Breast cancer, wave atom transform, SVM, k-NN.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: Guo Xiuhua, Sun Tao, Wu Haifeng, He Wen, Liang Zhigang, Zhang Mengxia, Guo Aimin, Wang Wei

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Purpose: To explore the use of Curvelet transform to extract texture features of pulmonary nodules in CT image and support vector machine to establish prediction model of small solitary pulmonary nodules in order to promote the ratio of detection and diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer. Methods: 2461 benign or malignant small solitary pulmonary nodules in CT image from 129 patients were collected. Fourteen Curvelet transform textural features were as parameters to establish support vector machine prediction model. Results: Compared with other methods, using 252 texture features as parameters to establish prediction model is more proper. And the classification consistency, sensitivity and specificity for the model are 81.5%, 93.8% and 38.0% respectively. Conclusion: Based on texture features extracted from Curvelet transform, support vector machine prediction model is sensitive to lung cancer, which can promote the rate of diagnosis for early-stage lung cancer to some extent.

Keywords: CT image, Curvelet transform, Small pulmonary nodules, Support vector machines, Texture extraction.

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Authors: M. Eckert, M. Oliveira

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The intensive use of natural aggregates, near cities and towns, associated to the increase of the global population, leads to its depletion and increases the transport distances. The uncontrolled deposition of construction and demolition waste in landfills and city outskirts, causes pollution and takes up space. The use of recycled aggregates in concrete preparation would contribute to mitigate the problem. However, it arises the problem that the high water absorption of recycled aggregate decreases the bleeding rate of concrete, and when this gets lower than the evaporation rate, plastic shrinkage cracking occurs. This phenomenon can be particularly problematic in hot and windy curing environments. Cracking facilitates the flow of liquid and gas into concrete which attacks the reinforcement and degrades the concrete. These factors reduce the durability of concrete structures and consequently the lifetime of buildings. A ring test was used, cured in a wind tunnel, to evaluate the plastic shrinkage cracking sensitivity of recycled aggregate concrete, in order to implement preventive means to control this phenomenon. The role of several aggregate properties on the concrete segregation and cracking mechanisms were also discussed.

Keywords: Recycled Aggregate, Plastic Shrinkage Cracking; Wind Tunnel, Durability.

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Authors: Pranee Suecharoen, Jaturat Kanpittaya

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Background: The incidence of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media has risen. The dearth of reports on reactions to the administration of iso- and low-osmolar contrast media should be addressed. We, therefore, studied the profile of adverse reactions to iodinated contrast media; viz., (a) the body systems affected (b) causality, (c) severity, and (d) preventability. Objective: To study adverse reactions (causes and severity) to iodinated contrast media at Srinagarind Hospital. Method: Between March and July, 2015, 1,101 patients from the Department of Radiology were observed and interviewed for the occurrence of adverse reactions. The patients were classified per Naranjo’s algorithm and through use of an adverse reactions questionnaire. Results: A total of 105 cases (9.5%) reported adverse reactions (57% male; 43% female); among whom 2% were iso-osmolar vs. 98% low-osmolar. Diagnoses included hepatoma and cholangiocarcinoma (24.8%), colorectal cancer (9.5%), breast cancer (5.7%), cervical cancer (3.8%), lung cancer (2.9%), bone cancer (1.9%), and others (51.5%). Underlying diseases included hypertension and diabetes mellitus type 2. Mild, moderate, and severe adverse reactions accounted for 92, 5 and 3%, respectively. The respective groups of escalating symptoms included (a) mild urticaria, itching, rash, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and headache; (b) moderate hypertension, hypotension, dyspnea, tachycardia and bronchospasm; and (c) severe laryngeal edema, profound hypotension, and convulsions. All reactions could be anticipated per Naranjo’s algorithm. Conclusion: Mild to moderate adverse reactions to low-osmolar contrast media were most common and these occurred immediately after administration. For patient safety and better outcomes, improving the identification of patients likely to have an adverse reaction is essential.

Keywords: Adverse reactions, contrast media, computed tomography, iodinated contrast agents.

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Authors: Efendi Zaenudin, Chien-Hung Huang, Ka-Lok Ng

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Essential genes play an important role in the survival of an organism. It has been shown that cancer-associated essential genes are genes necessary for cancer cell proliferation, where these genes are potential therapeutic targets. Also, it was demonstrated that mutations of the cancer-associated essential genes give rise to the resistance of immunotherapy for patients with tumors. In the present study, we focus on studying the biological effects of the essential genes from a network perspective. We hypothesize that one can analyze a biological molecular network by decomposing it into both three-node and four-node digraphs (subgraphs). These network subgraphs encode the regulatory interaction information among the network’s genetic elements. In this study, the frequency of occurrence of the subgraph-associated essential genes in a molecular network was quantified by using the statistical parameter, odds ratio. Biological effects of subgraph-associated essential genes are discussed. In summary, the subgraph approach provides a systematic method for analyzing molecular networks and it can capture useful biological information for biomedical research.

Keywords: Biological molecular networks, essential genes, graph theory, network subgraphs.

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: M. Anidha, K. Premalatha

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Feature Selection is significant in order to perform constructive classification in the area of cancer diagnosis. However, a large number of features compared to the number of samples makes the task of classification computationally very hard and prone to errors in microarray gene expression datasets. In this paper, we present an innovative method for selecting highly informative gene subsets of gene expression data that effectively classifies the cancer data into tumorous and non-tumorous. The hybrid gene selection technique comprises of combined Mutual Information and Fisher score to select informative genes. The gene selection is validated by classification using Support Vector Machine (SVM) which is a supervised learning algorithm capable of solving complex classification problems. The results obtained from improved Mutual Information and F-Score with SVM as a classifier has produced efficient results.

Keywords: Gene selection, mutual information, Fisher score, classification, SVM.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

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Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

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Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: A. Sindhuja, V. Sadasivam

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Breast Cancer is the most common malignancy in women and the second leading cause of death for women all over the world. Earlier the detection of cancer, better the treatment. The diagnosis and treatment of the cancer rely on segmentation of Sonoelastographic images. Texture features has not considered for Sonoelastographic segmentation. Sonoelastographic images of 15 patients containing both benign and malignant tumorsare considered for experimentation.The images are enhanced to remove noise in order to improve contrast and emphasize tumor boundary. It is then decomposed into sub-bands using single level Daubechies wavelets varying from single co-efficient to six coefficients. The Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), Local Binary Pattern (LBP) features are extracted and then selected by ranking it using Sequential Floating Forward Selection (SFFS) technique from each sub-band. The resultant images undergo K-Means clustering and then few post-processing steps to remove the false spots. The tumor boundary is detected from the segmented image. It is proposed that Local Binary Pattern (LBP) from the vertical coefficients of Daubechies wavelet with two coefficients is best suited for segmentation of Sonoelastographic breast images among the wavelet members using one to six coefficients for decomposition. The results are also quantified with the help of an expert radiologist. The proposed work can be used for further diagnostic process to decide if the segmented tumor is benign or malignant.

Keywords: Breast Cancer, Segmentation, Sonoelastography, Tumor Detection.

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Authors: Wittawat Wasusathien, Samran Santalunai, Thanaset Thosdeekoraphat, Chanchai Thongsopa

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This paper presents breast cancer detection by observing the specific absorption rate (SAR) intensity for identification tumor location, the tumor is identified in coordinates (x,y,z) system. We examined the frequency between 4-8 GHz to look for the most appropriate frequency. Results are simulated in frequency 4-8 GHz, the model overview include normal breast with 50 mm radian, 5 mm diameter of tumor, and ultra wideband (UWB) bowtie antenna. The models are created and simulated in CST Microwave Studio. For this simulation, we changed antenna to 5 location around the breast, the tumor can be detected when an antenna is close to the tumor location, which the coordinate of maximum SAR is approximated the tumor location. For reliable, we experiment by random tumor location to 3 position in the same size of tumor and simulation the result again by varying the antenna position in 5 position again, and it also detectable the tumor position from the antenna that nearby tumor position by maximum value of SAR, which it can be detected the tumor with precision in all frequency between 4-8 GHz.

Keywords: Specific absorption rate (SAR), ultra wideband (UWB), coordinates and cancer detection

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Authors: Diky Mudhakir, Satrialdi, Sukmadjaja Asyarie, Yeyet C. Sumirtapura

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Today, cancer remains one of the major diseases that lead to death. The main obstacle in chemotherapy as a main cancer treatment is the toxicity to normal cells due to Multidrug Resistance (MDR) after the use of anticancer drugs. Proposed solution to overcome this problem is the use of MDR efflux inhibitor of cinchona alkaloids which is delivered together with anticancer drugs encapsulated in the form of polymeric nanoparticles. The particles were prepared by the hydration method. The characterization of nanoparticles was particle size, zeta potential, entrapment efficiency and in vitro drug release. Combination nanoparticle size ranged 29-45 nm with a neutral surface charge. Entrapment efficiency was above 87% for the use quinine, quinidine or cinchonidine in combination with etoposide. The release test results exhibited that the cinchona alkaloids release released faster than that of etoposide. Collectively, cinchona alkaloids can be packaged along with etoposide in nanomicelles for better cancer therapy.

Keywords: Cinchona alkaloids, etoposide, MDR efflux inhitor, polymeric nanomicelles.

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Marco Bötel, Tobias Gelau, Wendelin Gross

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Supply chain networks are frequently hit by unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up which supports effective operational responses in supply chain networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further embedded into a common risk management process. The paper provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the network related options for responsive actions and to determine the need for improving the reaction capabilities.

Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Business Continuity Planning, Degrees of Freedom, Risk Management Process, Mitigation Measures.

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: Human vulnerabilities, human security, inert-immediate, material-immaterial, timespace.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

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This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Amanda M. Tadini, Houssam Hajjoul, Gustavo Nicolodelli, Stéphane Mounier, Célia R. Montes, Débora M. B. P. Milori

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Soil organic matter (SOM) plays an important role in maintaining soil productivity and accounting for the promotion of biological diversity. The main components of the SOM are the humic substances which can be fractionated according to its solubility in humic acid (HA), fulvic acids (FA) and humin (HU). The determination of the chemical properties of organic matter as well as its interaction with metallic species is an important tool for understanding the structure of the humic fractions. Fluorescence spectroscopy has been studied as a source of information about what is happening at the molecular level in these compounds. Specially, soils of Amazon region are an important ecosystem of the planet. The aim of this study is to understand the molecular and structural composition of HA samples from Spodosol of Amazonia using the fluorescence Emission-Excitation Matrix (EEM) and Time Resolved Fluorescence Spectroscopy (TRFS). The results showed that the samples of HA showed two fluorescent components; one has a more complex structure and the other one has a simpler structure, which was also seen in TRFS through the evaluation of each sample lifetime. Thus, studies of this nature become important because it aims to evaluate the molecular and structural characteristics of the humic fractions in the region that is considered as one of the most important regions in the world, the Amazon.

Keywords: Amazonian soil, characterization, fluorescence, humic acid, lifetime.

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

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This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: Conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management.

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

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This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: Classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER.

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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