Search results for: Kernel regression

Authors: Chee Peng Lim, Wei Yee Goh

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of multiple Elman neural networks to time series data regression problems is studied. An ensemble of Elman networks is formed by boosting to enhance the performance of the individual networks. A modified version of the AdaBoost algorithm is employed to integrate the predictions from multiple networks. Two benchmark time series data sets, i.e., the Sunspot and Box-Jenkins gas furnace problems, are used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system. The simulation results reveal that an ensemble of boosted Elman networks can achieve a higher degree of generalization as well as performance than that of the individual networks. The results are compared with those from other learning systems, and implications of the performance are discussed.

Keywords: AdaBoost, Elman network, neural network ensemble, time series regression.

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Authors: Pek Chuen-Khee, Jamal Othman

Abstract:

This paper estimates the economic values of household preference for enhanced solid waste disposal services in Malaysia. The contingent valuation (CV) method estimates an average additional monthly willingness-to-pay (WTP) in solid waste management charges of Ôé¼0.77 to 0.80 for improved waste disposal services quality. The finding of a slightly higher WTP from the generic CV question than that of label-specific, further reveals a higher WTP for sanitary landfill, at Ôé¼0.90, than incineration, at Ôé¼0.63. This suggests that sanitary landfill is a more preferred alternative. The logistic regression estimation procedure reveals that household-s concern of where their rubbish is disposed, age, ownership of house, household income and format of CV question are significant factors in influencing WTP.

Keywords: contingent valuation, logistic regression, solid waste disposal, willingness-to-pay.

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

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Breastfeeding is an important concept in the maternal life of a woman. In this paper, we focus on exclusive breastfeeding. Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. This type of breastfeeding is very important during the first six months because it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, in Mauritius, exclusive breastfeeding has decreased the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we give an overview of exclusive breastfeeding in Mauritius and the factors influencing it. We further analyze the local practices of exclusive breastfeeding using the Generalized Poisson regression model and the negative-binomial model since the data are over-dispersed.

Keywords: Exclusive breast feeding, regression model, generalized poisson, negative binomial.

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Authors: Ugwuanyi, Georgina Obinne, Ugwu, Joy Nonye

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This paper examines the effect of corporate diversification on the profitability of the Financial services sector in Nigeria. The study relied on historic accounting data generated from financial (annual) reports and accounts of sampled banks between the period 1998 and 2007 (a ten-year period). A regression equation was formulated, in line with previous studies to shed light on the effect of corporate diversification on the profitability of the Financial services sector in Nigeria. The results of the regression analysis revealed that diversification impacts strongly on banks profitability. Conclusively the paper produces strong evidence to assert that diversification impacts positively and significantly on banks profitability because among other things such diversified banks can pool their internally generated funds and allocate them properly.

Keywords: Diversification, firm size, operational efficiency, profitability

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Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

Abstract:

In this paper, a study on the applications of the optimization and regression techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets for minimal cross section dimension is introduced. From the condition of the moment equilibrium of a mechanic system including three gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for calculation of the partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets were given. Especially, by regression analysis, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are introduced. These models allow determining the partial ratios accurately and simply.

Keywords: Gearbox design, optimal design, helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

Abstract:

The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: Neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression.

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Authors: Mohammad H. Fattahi

Abstract:

Chaotic analysis has been performed on the river flow time series before and after applying the wavelet based de-noising techniques in order to investigate the noise content effects on chaotic nature of flow series. In this study, 38 years of monthly runoff data of three gauging stations were used. Gauging stations were located in Ghar-e-Aghaj river basin, Fars province, Iran. Noise level of time series was estimated with the aid of Gaussian kernel algorithm. This step was found to be crucial in preventing removal of the vital data such as memory, correlation and trend from the time series in addition to the noise during de-noising process.

Keywords: Chaotic behavior, wavelet, noise reduction, river flow.

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Authors: Clark Van Dam, Gagan Mirchandani

Abstract:

The Continuously Adaptive Mean-Shift (CamShift) algorithm, incorporating scene depth information is combined with the l1-minimization sparse representation based method to form a hybrid kernel and state space-based tracking algorithm. We take advantage of the increased efficiency of the former with the robustness to occlusion property of the latter. A simple interchange scheme transfers control between algorithms based upon drift and occlusion likelihood. It is quantified by the projection of target candidates onto a depth map of the 2D scene obtained with a low cost stereo vision webcam. Results are improved tracking in terms of drift over each algorithm individually, in a challenging practical outdoor multiple occlusion test case.

Keywords: CamShift, l1-minimization, particle filter, stereo vision, video tracking.

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Authors: Mohamed Abdel Fattah, Fuji Ren

Abstract:

This work proposes an approach to address automatic text summarization. This approach is a trainable summarizer, which takes into account several features, including sentence position, positive keyword, negative keyword, sentence centrality, sentence resemblance to the title, sentence inclusion of name entity, sentence inclusion of numerical data, sentence relative length, Bushy path of the sentence and aggregated similarity for each sentence to generate summaries. First we investigate the effect of each sentence feature on the summarization task. Then we use all features score function to train genetic algorithm (GA) and mathematical regression (MR) models to obtain a suitable combination of feature weights. The proposed approach performance is measured at several compression rates on a data corpus composed of 100 English religious articles. The results of the proposed approach are promising.

Keywords: Automatic Summarization, Genetic Algorithm, Mathematical Regression, Text Features.

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to specify factors influencing the profitability of selected banks. Next, a model will be created to help establish variables that have a demonstrable influence on the development of the selected banks' profitability ratios. Czech banks and their international parent companies were selected for analyzing profitability. Banks categorized as large banks (according to the Czech National Bank's system, which ranks banks according to balance sheet total) were selected to represent the Czech banks. Two ratios, the return on assets ratio (ROA) and the return on equity ratio (ROE) are used to assess bank profitability. Six endogenous and four external indicators were selected from among other factors that influence bank profitability. The data analyzed were for 2001–2013. First, correlation analysis, which was supposed to eliminate correlated values, was conducted. A large number of correlated values were established on the basis of this analysis. The strongly correlated values were omitted. Despite this, the subsequent regression analysis of profitability for the individual banks that were selected did not confirm that the selected variables influenced their profitability. The studied factors' influence on bank profitability was demonstrated only for Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka and Société Générale using regression analysis. For Československa Obchodni Banka, it was demonstrated that inflation level and the amount of the central bank's interest rate influenced the return on assets ratio and that capital adequacy and market concentration influenced the return on equity ratio for Société Générale.

Keywords: Banks, profitability, regression analysis, ROA, ROE.

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Authors: Siti Maryam Rusly, Shaliza Ibrahim

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The adsorption of simulated aqueous solution containing textile remazol reactive dye, namely Red 3BS by palm shell activated carbon (PSAC) as adsorbent was carried out using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design in three most important operating variables; initial dye concentration, dosage of adsorbent and speed of impeller was employed for experimental design and optimization of results. The significance of independent variables and their interactions were tested by means of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 95% confidence limits. Model indicated that with the increasing of dosage and speed give the result of removal up to 90% with the capacity uptake more than 7 mg/g. High regression coefficient between the variables and the response (R-Sq = 93.9%) showed of good evaluation of experimental data by polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Adsorption, Box-Behnken Design, Palm ShellActivated Carbon, Red 3BS, RSM.

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Authors: Mohammad Javadi

Abstract:

Serial hierarchical support vector machine (SHSVM) is proposed to discriminate three brain tissues which are white matter (WM), gray matter (GM), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). SHSVM has novel classification approach by repeating the hierarchical classification on data set iteratively. It used Radial Basis Function (rbf) Kernel with different tuning to obtain accurate results. Also as the second approach, segmentation performed with DAGSVM method. In this article eight univariate features from the raw DTI data are extracted and all the possible 2D feature sets are examined within the segmentation process. SHSVM succeed to obtain DSI values higher than 0.95 accuracy for all the three tissues, which are higher than DAGSVM results.

Keywords: Brain segmentation, DTI, hierarchical, SVM.

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Authors: Ardhendu Behera, Denis Lalanne, Rolf Ingold

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This paper proposes a method, combining color and layout features, for identifying documents captured from low-resolution handheld devices. On one hand, the document image color density surface is estimated and represented with an equivalent ellipse and on the other hand, the document shallow layout structure is computed and hierarchically represented. Our identification method first uses the color information in the documents in order to focus the search space on documents having a similar color distribution, and finally selects the document having the most similar layout structure in the remaining of the search space.

Keywords: Document color modeling, document visualsignature, kernel density estimation, document identification.

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Authors: Mingaleva Zhanna, Gayfutdinova Oksana, Podgornova Evgenia

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The regional innovative competitiveness is an integrating characteristic of the innovative sphere of the region. It depends on a big variety of different parameters connected with all kinds of economic entities- activities. But management parameters shouldn't be irregular, so in order to avoid it, an institutional system should be formed. This system should carry out strategic management of factors having the greatest influence on the region's innovative development. This article is devoted to different aspects of organization of the region's development institutional mechanism, which is based on management of regional innovative competitiveness parameters. The base of the analysis is innovatively-active Russian regions which were compared according to the level of the innovative competitiveness. After that the most important parameters of successful innovative development of the region were revealed with the help of the correlation-regression analysis. The results of the research could be used for investigation of the region's innovative policy.

Keywords: Regional innovative competitiveness, institutional mechanism, innovative region development, correlation-regression analysis.

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Authors: Sotirios N. Raptis

Abstract:

The paper links social needs to social classes by the creation of cohorts of public services matched as causes to other ones as effects using cause-effect (CE) models. It then compares these associations using CE and typical regression methods (LR, ARMA). The paper discusses such public service groupings offered in Scotland in the long term to estimate the risk of multiple causes or effects that can ultimately reduce the healthcare cost by linking the next services to the likely causes of them. The same generic goal can be achieved using LR or ARMA and differences are discussed. The work uses Health and Social Care (H&Sc) public services data from 11 service packs offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland that boil down to 110 single-attribute year series, called ’factors’. The study took place at Macmillan Cancer Support, UK and Abertay University, Dundee, from 2020 to 2023. The paper discusses CE relationships as a main method and compares sample findings with Linear Regression (LR), ARMA, to see how the services are linked. Relationships found were between smoking-related healthcare provision, mental-health-related services, and epidemiological weight in Primary-1-Education Body-Mass-Index (BMI) in children as CE models. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack CE-linked services in plans such as those for the elderly, low-income people, in the long term. The linkage of services was confirmed allowing more accurate resource planning.

Keywords: Probability, regression, cause-effect cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

Abstract:

The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: Data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation.

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Authors: Labiba Gilani, Asifullah Khan, Anwar M. Mirza

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This paper introduces a technique of distortion estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP). The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as a function regression problem. This function regression problem is solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust against attacks.

Keywords: Blind Watermarking, Genetic Programming (GP), Fitness Function, Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT).

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Authors: Oliver F. Shyr, Yu-Hsuan Hsiao, David E. Andersson

Abstract:

Due to the call of global warming effects, city planners aim at actions for reducing carbon emission. One of the approaches is to promote the usage of public transportation system toward the transit-oriented-development. For example, rapid transit system in Taipei city and Kaohsiung city are opening. However, until November 2008 the average daily patronage counted only 113,774 passengers at Kaohsiung MRT systems, much less than which was expected. Now the crucial questions: how the public transport competes with private transport? And more importantly, what factors would enhance the use of public transport? To give the answers to those questions, our study first applied regression to analyze the factors attracting people to use public transport around cities in the world. It is shown in our study that the number of MRT stations, city population, cost of living, transit fare, density, gasoline price, and scooter being a major mode of transport are the major factors. Subsequently, our study identified successful and unsuccessful cities in regard of the public transport usage based on the diagnosis of regression residuals. Finally, by comparing transportation strategies adopted by those successful cities, our conclusion stated that Kaohsiung City could apply strategies such as increasing parking fees, reducing parking spaces in downtown area, and reducing transfer time by providing more bus services and public bikes to promote the usage of public transport.

Keywords: Public Transit System, Comparative Study, Transport Demand Management, Regression

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Authors: Burcu Kaya, Jan-Martin Kaiser, Karl-Friedrich Becker, Tanja Braun, Klaus-Dieter Lang

Abstract:

Quality of the molded packages is strongly influenced by the process parameters of the transfer molding. To achieve a better package quality and a stable transfer molding process, it is necessary to understand the influence of the process parameters on the package quality. This work aims to comprehend the relationship between the process parameters, and to identify the optimum process parameters for the transfer molding process in order to achieve less voids and wire sweep. To achieve this, a DoE is executed for process optimization and a regression analysis is carried out. A systematic approach is represented to generate models which enable an estimation of the number of voids and wire sweep. Validation experiments are conducted to verify the model and the results are presented.

Keywords: Epoxy molding compounds, optimization, regression analysis, transfer molding process, voids, wire sweep.

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Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders

Abstract:

In many applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. Here we consider partially monotone problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the predictor variables but not all. We propose an approach to build partially monotone models based on the convolution of monotone neural networks and kernel functions. The results from simulations and a real case study on house pricing show that our approach has significantly better performance than partially monotone linear models. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.

Keywords: Mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Lei Zhang, Tao Wang, Xiantong Zhen

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Naive Bayes Nearest Neighbor (NBNN) and its variants, i,e., local NBNN and the NBNN kernels, are local feature-based classifiers that have achieved impressive performance in image classification. By exploiting instance-to-class (I2C) distances (instance means image/video in image/video classification), they avoid quantization errors of local image descriptors in the bag of words (BoW) model. However, the performances of NBNN, local NBNN and the NBNN kernels have not been validated on video analysis. In this paper, we introduce these three classifiers into human action recognition and conduct comprehensive experiments on the benchmark KTH and the realistic HMDB datasets. The results shows that those I2C based classifiers consistently outperform the SVM classifier with the BoW model.

Keywords: Instance-to-class distance, NBNN, Local NBNN, NBNN kernel.

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Ching-Yi Lu, Hui-Chuan Wei

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to explore the relation between proactive coping and well-being of middle-aged adults. We conducted survey research that with t-test, one way ANOVA, Pearson correlation and stepwise multiple regression to analyze. This research drew on a sample of 395 participants from the senior learning centers of Taiwan. The results provided the following findings: 1.The participants from different residence areas associated significant difference with proactive coping, but not with well-being. 2. The participants’ perceived of financial level associated significant difference with both proactive coping and well-being. 3. There was significant difference between participants’ income and well-being. 4. The proactive coping was positively correlated with well-being. 5. From stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that two dimensions of proactive coping had positive predictability. Finally, these results of this study can be provided as references for designing older adult educational programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Middle-age adults, learners, proactive coping, well-being.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: Cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm.

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Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews

Abstract:

In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R² = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R² = 0.78, P < 0.0001).

Keywords: Debonding, FRP, pull-out test, stepwise regression analysis.

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Authors: Barath Kumar, Oliver Niggemann, Juergen Jasperneite

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Model-based approaches have been applied successfully to a wide range of tasks such as specification, simulation, testing, and diagnosis. But one bottleneck often prevents the introduction of these ideas: Manual modeling is a non-trivial, time-consuming task. Automatically deriving models by observing and analyzing running systems is one possible way to amend this bottleneck. To derive a model automatically, some a-priori knowledge about the model structure–i.e. about the system–must exist. Such a model formalism would be used as follows: (i) By observing the network traffic, a model of the long-term system behavior could be generated automatically, (ii) Test vectors can be generated from the model, (iii) While the system is running, the model could be used to diagnose non-normal system behavior. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a model formalism called 'probabilistic regression automaton' suitable for the tasks mentioned above.

Keywords: Model-based approach, Probabilistic regression automata, Statistical models and Timed automata.

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Authors: Wendy Zhang, Ernst L. Leiss, Huilin Ye

Abstract:

Most scientific programs have large input and output data sets that require out-of-core programming or use virtual memory management (VMM). Out-of-core programming is very error-prone and tedious; as a result, it is generally avoided. However, in many instance, VMM is not an effective approach because it often results in substantial performance reduction. In contrast, compiler driven I/O management will allow a program-s data sets to be retrieved in parts, called blocks or tiles. Comanche (COmpiler MANaged caCHE) is a compiler combined with a user level runtime system that can be used to replace standard VMM for out-of-core programs. We describe Comanche and demonstrate on a number of representative problems that it substantially out-performs VMM. Significantly our system does not require any special services from the operating system and does not require modification of the operating system kernel.

Keywords: I/O Management, Out-of-core, Compiler, Tile mapping.

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Authors: Suresh S. Salankar, Balasaheb M. Patre

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Research into the problem of classification of sonar signals has been taken up as a challenging task for the neural networks. This paper investigates the design of an optimal classifier using a Multi layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP NN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Results obtained using sonar data sets suggest that SVM classifier perform well in comparison with well-known MLP NN classifier. An average classification accuracy of 91.974% is achieved with SVM classifier and 90.3609% with MLP NN classifier, on the test instances. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve for the proposed SVM classifier on test data set is found as 0.981183, which is very close to unity and this clearly confirms the excellent quality of the proposed classifier. The SVM classifier employed in this paper is implemented using kernel Adatron algorithm is seen to be robust and relatively insensitive to the parameter initialization in comparison to MLP NN.

Keywords: Classification, MLP NN, backpropagation algorithm, SVM, Receiver Operating Characteristics.

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Authors: Inna R. Edara, Haw-Lin Wu

Abstract:

Positive psychology investigates human strengths and virtues and promotes well-being. Relying on this assumption, positive interventions have been continuously designed to build pleasure and happiness, joy and contentment, engagement and meaning, hope and optimism, satisfaction and gratitude, spirituality, and various other positive measures of well-being. In line with this model of positive psychology and interventions, this study investigated certain measures of well-being in a group of 45 students enrolled in an 18-week positive psychology course and simultaneously engaged in service-oriented interventions that they chose for themselves based on the course content and individual interests. Students’ well-being was measured at the beginning and end of the course. The well-being indicators included positive automatic thoughts, optimism and hope, satisfaction with life, and spirituality. A paired-samples t-test conducted to evaluate the impact of class content and service-oriented interventions on students’ scores of well-being indicators indicated statistically significant increase from pre-class to post-class scores. There were also significant gender differences in post-course well-being scores, with females having higher levels of well-being than males. A two-way between groups analysis of variance indicated a significant interaction effect of age by gender on the post-course well-being scores, with females in the age group of 56-65 having the highest scores of well-being in comparison to the males in the same age group. Regression analyses indicated that positive automatic thought significantly predicted hope and satisfaction with life in the pre-course analysis. In the post-course regression analysis, spiritual transcendence made a significant contribution to optimism, and positive automatic thought made a significant contribution to both hope and satisfaction with life. Finally, a significant test between pre-course and post-course regression coefficients indicated that the regression coefficients at pre-course were significantly different from post-course coefficients, suggesting that the positive psychology course and the interventions were helpful in raising the levels of well-being. The overall results suggest a substantial increase in the participants’ well-being scores after engaging in the positive-oriented interventions, implying a need for designing more positive interventions in education to promote well-being.  

Keywords: Hope, optimism, positive automatic thoughts, satisfaction with life, spirituality, well-being.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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