Search results for: Empirical Bayes

Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

Abstract:

This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Eatedal A. Alabdulkreem, Hamed S. Al-Raweshidy, Maysam F. Abbod

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Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the standard routing protocol between various autonomous systems (AS) in the internet. In the event of failure, a considerable delay in the BGP convergence has been shown by empirical measurements. During the convergence time the BGP will repeatedly advertise new routes to some destination and withdraw old ones until it reach a stable state. It has been found that the KEEPALIVE message timer and the HOLD time are tow parameters affecting the convergence speed. This paper aims to find the optimum value for the KEEPALIVE timer and the HOLD time that maximally reduces the convergence time without increasing the traffic. The KEEPALIVE message timer optimal value founded by this paper is 30 second instead of 60 seconds, and the optimal value for the HOLD time is 90 seconds instead of 180 seconds.

Keywords: BGP, Convergence Time, HOLD time, Keep alive.

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Authors: Nikolay Nikolaev, Evgueni Smirnov

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This paper develops an unscented grid-based filter and a smoother for accurate nonlinear modeling and analysis of time series. The filter uses unscented deterministic sampling during both the time and measurement updating phases, to approximate directly the distributions of the latent state variable. A complementary grid smoother is also made to enable computing of the likelihood. This helps us to formulate an expectation maximisation algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the state noise and the observation noise. Empirical investigations show that the proposed unscented grid filter/smoother compares favourably to other similar filters on nonlinear estimation tasks.

Keywords:

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Authors: Paul David Henry

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This paper describes the results and implications of a correlational study of learning styles and learner satisfaction. The relationship of these empirical concepts was examined in the context of traditional versus e-blended modes of course delivery in an introductory graduate research course. Significant results indicated that the visual side of the visual-verbal dimension of students- learning style(s) was positively correlated to satisfaction with themselves as learners in an e-blended course delivery mode and negatively correlated to satisfaction with the classroom environment in the context of a traditional classroom course delivery mode.

Keywords: Course delivery mode, e-blended, hybrid, learner satisfaction, learning style.

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: Globalization, Trade Policy, Economic Growth, Openness, Co-integration, Turkey.

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Authors: Ahmad T. Al-Taani, Noor Aldeen K. Al-Awad

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In this study, a fuzzy similarity approach for Arabic web pages classification is presented. The approach uses a fuzzy term-category relation by manipulating membership degree for the training data and the degree value for a test web page. Six measures are used and compared in this study. These measures include: Einstein, Algebraic, Hamacher, MinMax, Special case fuzzy and Bounded Difference approaches. These measures are applied and compared using 50 different Arabic web pages. Einstein measure was gave best performance among the other measures. An analysis of these measures and concluding remarks are drawn in this study.

Keywords: Text classification, HTML documents, Web pages, Machine learning, Fuzzy logic, Arabic Web pages.

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Authors: Yue-Yang Chen, Hui-Ling Huang, Wan-Yu Yu, Chung-Lun Wei

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In recent years, though, the concept of fit has been now in widespread used in strategic management research, it is in its infancy for applying fit concept to service innovation issue. Therefore, drawing on the concept of fit, this present research proposed an innovation service fit model within service innovation, market orientation, marketing strategy, and IT adoption are coexisted. The perspective of fit as covariation will be employed to test the hypothesis and identify the effects of fit. We contend that the fit among these four factors will contribution to business performance. Finally, according to the empirical data collected from manufacturing, service, and financial industry in Taiwan, meaningful findings and conclusions will be proposed and discussed.

Keywords: Service innovation, market orientation, IT adoption, marketing strategy, fit

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Authors: Hui-Ling Huang, Yue-Yang Chen, Ming-Chi Tsai, Cheng-Jiun Lee

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Recently, a great number of theoretical frameworks have been proposed to develop the linkages between knowledge management (KM) and organizational strategies. However, while there has been much theorizing and case study in the area, validated research models integrating KM and information technology strategies for empirical testing of these theories have been scarce. In this research, we try to develop a research model for explaining the relationship between KM strategy and IT strategy and their effects on performance. Finally, meaningful propositions and conclusions are derived, and suggestions for future research are proposed and discussed.

Keywords: Knowledge management strategy, information technology strategy, knowledge management performance, information technology performance

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Authors: T. Hussain, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal

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The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there is short and long run causal relation between growth and unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as explanatory variables.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, Cointegrationand Causality.

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Authors: Shahin Dezdar, Sulaiman Ainin

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The aim of this paper is to examine factors related to system environment (namely, system quality and vendor support) that influences ERP implementation success in Iranian companies. Implementation success is identified using user satisfaction and organizational impact perspective. The study adopts the survey questionnaire approach to collect empirical data. The questionnaire was distributed to ERP users and a total of 384 responses were used for analysis. The results illustrated that both system quality and vendor support have significant effect on ERP implementation success. This implies that companies must ensure they source for the best available system and a vendor that is dependable, reliable and trustworthy.

Keywords: Enterprise resource planning (ERP), Iran, system quality, vendor support.

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Authors: Toni Raurich, Joan Llonch-Andreu

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This research focused on the relationship between Search Engine Marketing (SEM) and traditional advertising. The dominant assumption is that SEM does not help brand awareness and only does it in session as if it were the cost of manufacturing the product being sold. The study is methodologically developed using an experiment where the effects were determined to analyze the billboard effect. The research allowed the cross-linking of theoretical and empirical knowledge on digital marketing. This paper has validated that, this marketing generates retention as traditional advertising would by measuring brand awareness and its improvements. This changes the way performance and brand campaigns are distributed within marketing departments, effectively rebalancing budgets moving forward.

Keywords: Search engine marketing, click-through ratios, pay-per-click, marketing attribution.

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Authors: Rajeev R. Sahay

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Rivers have transient storage or dead zones where injected pollutants or solutes are entrapped for considerable period of time, known as residence time, before being released into the main flowing zones of rivers. In this study, a new empirical expression for residence time, implementing genetic programming on published dispersion data, has been derived. The proposed expression uses few hydraulic and geometric characteristics of rivers which are normally known to the authorities. When compared with some reported expressions, based on various statistical indices, it can be concluded that the proposed expression predicts the residence time of pollutants in natural rivers more accurately.

Keywords: Parameter estimation, pollutant transport, residence time, rivers, transient storage.

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Authors: A. Bodak, A. Cierniak-Emerych, M. Gableta, A. Pietroń-Pyszczek, K. Piwowar-Sulej

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Modern organizations operate under the pressure of dynamic and often unpredictable changes, both in external and internal environment. Market success, in this context, requires a particular competence in the form of flexibility, interpreted here both on the level of individuals and on the level of organization. This paper addresses the changes taking place in the sphere of employment, as observed in economic entities operating on Polish market. Based on own empirical studies, the authors focus on the progressing trend of ‘flexibilization’ of employment, particularly in the context of transformations in organizational structure, designed to facilitate the transition into management by projects and differentiation of labor forms.

Keywords: Flexibility of employment, changes in organizational structure, forms of employment, social effects of flexibility.

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Authors: Chidera G. Eze, Kennedy K. Abrokwa, Chimaobi V. Okolo

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This paper empirically examines the dynamic relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in a monetary union. We find positive but weak evidence of impacts of financial deepening on growth for Gambia, Gabon and Sierra Leone. There is no evidence of any positive significant impact for Ghana and Nigeria. We argue that, the weak evidence between financial deepening and economic growth can be a consequence of the inability of assessing credit (long-term loans), credit worthiness, lack of information and low level of bank deposits by the private sector despite the improvement in the financial sector.

Keywords: Financial deepening, economic growth, dynamics, innovation accounting.

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Authors: Amandeep Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Dr. K. S. Kahlon

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The impact of OO design on software quality characteristics such as defect density and rework by mean of experimental validation. Encapsulation, inheritance, polymorphism, reusability, Data hiding and message-passing are the major attribute of an Object Oriented system. In order to evaluate the quality of an Object oriented system the above said attributes can act as indicators. The metrics are the well known quantifiable approach to express any attribute. Hence, in this paper we tried to formulate a framework of metrics representing the attributes of object oriented system. Empirical Data is collected from three different projects based on object oriented paradigms to calculate the metrics.

Keywords: Object Oriented, Software metrics, Methods, Attributes, cohesion, coupling, Inheritance.

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Authors: Rosita Suhaimi, Firdaus Abdullah, Chong Fen Nee, Nurhani Aba Ibrahim

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This paper attempts to identify the significance of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and competitiveness to the profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia. The profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia, the dependent variable, was estimated using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) on a sample of unbalanced panel data, covering 23 commercial banks, between 1995 to 2007. Based on the empirical results, ICT was not found to exert a significant impact on profit efficiency, whereas competitiveness, non ICT stock expenditure and ownership were significant contributors. On the other hand, the size of banks was found to have significantly reduced profit efficiency, opening up for various interpretations of the interrelated role of ICT and competition.

Keywords: Competitiveness, Profit Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Mohammad Ara

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The purpose of this study is to provide some empirical evidence about implementing Activity-Based Costing (ABC) in the hospitality industry in Iran. For this purpose, we consider the Tabriz International Hotel as our sample hotel and then gather the relevant data from its cost accounting system in 2012. Then, we use ABC as our costing method and compare the cost of each service unit with that cost which had been extracted for the traditional costing method. The results show a different cost per unit for two methods. Also, because of its more precise and detailed provided information, an ABC system facilitates the decision-making process for managers on decisions related to profitability analysis, budgeting, pricing, and so on.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, activity, cost driver, hospitality industry.

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

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In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: Economic growth, external debt, time series analysis, Turkish economy.

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Authors: Yueming Wang, Zenghui Zhang, Rendong Ying, Peilin Liu

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Sparse representation has long been studied and several dictionary learning methods have been proposed. The dictionary learning methods are widely used because they are adaptive. In this paper, a new dictionary learning method for audio is proposed. Signals are at first decomposed into different degrees of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) technique. Then these IMFs form a learned dictionary. To reduce the size of the dictionary, the K-means method is applied to the dictionary to generate a K-EMD dictionary. Compared to K-SVD algorithm, the K-EMD dictionary decomposes audio signals into structured components, thus the sparsity of the representation is increased by 34.4% and the SNR of the recovered audio signals is increased by 20.9%.

Keywords: Dictionary Learning, EMD, K-means Method, Sparse Representation.

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Authors: Ishraq A. Al-Fataftah, Ayman A. Issa

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Requirement engineering has been the subject of large volume of researches due to the significant role it plays in the software development life cycle. However, dynamicity of software industry is much faster than advances in requirements engineering approaches. Therefore, this paper aims to systematically review and evaluate the current research in requirement engineering and identify new research trends and direction in this field. In addition, various research methods associated with the Evaluation-based techniques and empirical study are highlighted for the requirements engineering field. Finally, challenges and recommendations on future directions research are presented based on the research team observations during this study.

Keywords: Current trends, Future trends, Requirement Engineering

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Authors: Hassan A. Sharafuddin, Chekra A. Allani

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Academicians at the Arab Open University have always voiced their concern about the efficacy of the blended learning process. Based on 75% independent study and 25% face-toface tutorial, it poses the challenge of the predisposition to adjustment. Being used to the psychology of traditional educational systems, AOU students cannot be easily weaned from being spoonfed. Hence they lack the motivation to plunge into self-study. For better involvement of AOU students into the learning practices, it is imperative to diagnose the factors that impede or increase their motivation. This is conducted through an empirical study grounded upon observations and tested hypothesis and aimed at monitoring and optimizing the students’ learning outcome. Recommendations of the research will follow the findings.

Keywords: Academic performance, blended learning, educational psychology, independent study, pedagogy.

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Authors: Kriangkrai Maneerat, Chutima Prommak

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This paper presents an analysis of the localization accuracy of indoor positioning systems using Cramer-s rule via IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks. The objective is to study the impact of the methods used to convert the received signal strength into the distance that is used to compute the object location in the wireless indoor positioning system. Various methods were tested and the localization accuracy was analyzed. The experimental results show that the method based on the empirical data measured in the non line-of-sight (NLOS) environment yield the highest localization accuracy; with the minimum error distance less than 3 m.

Keywords: Indoor positioning systems, localization accuracy, wireless networks, Cramer's rule.

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Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun

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GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline  stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.

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Authors: Ahmad Puad Mat Som, Mohammad Bader Badarneh

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Tourism researchers have recently focused on repeat visitation as a part of destination loyalty. Different models have also considered satisfaction as the main determinant of revisit intention, while findings in many studies show it as a continuous issue. This conceptual paper attempts at evaluating recent empirical studies on satisfaction and revisit intention. Based on limitations and gaps in recent studies, the current paper suggests a new model that would be more comprehensive than those in previous studies. The new model offers new relationships between antecedents (destination image, perceived value, specific novelty seeking, and distance to destination) and both of satisfaction and revisit intention. Revisit intention in turn is suggested to be measured in a temporal approach.

Keywords: Satisfaction, revisit intention, a new model.

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Authors: Lan Sun, Subhrendu Rath

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This is a comprehensive large-sample study of Australian earnings management. Using a sample of 4,844 firm-year observations across nine Australia industries from 2000 to 2006, we find substantial corporate earnings management activity across several Australian industries. We document strong evidence of size and return on assets being primary determinants of earnings management in Australia. The effects of size and return on assets are also found to be dominant in both income-increasing and incomedecreasing earnings manipulation. We also document that that periphery sector firms are more likely to involve larger magnitude of earnings management than firms in the core sector.

Keywords: Earnings management, discretionary accruals, income-increasing/decreasing manipulation, dual economy sector

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Pressca Neging, Rosidah Musa, Rabiah Abdul Wahab

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The rapid adoption of Internet has turned the Millennial Teens- life like a lightning speed. Empirical evidence has illustrated that Pathological Internet Use (PIU) among them ensure long-term success to the market players in the children industry. However, it creates concerns among their care takers as it generates mental disorder among some of them. The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of PIU and identify its outcomes among urban Millennial Teens. It aims to develop a theoretical framework based on a modified Media System Dependency (MSD) Theory that integrates important systems and components that determine and resulted from PIU.

Keywords: Internet, media system dependency theory, millennial, pathological internet use.

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Authors: Neetu Rani, Hema Setia, Marut Dutt. R.K. Wanchoo

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An empirical correlation for predicting the heat transfer coefficient for a cylinder under free convection, inclined at any arbitrary angle with the horizontal has been developed in terms of Nusselt number, Prandtl number and Grashof number. Available experimental data was used to determine the parameters for the proposed correlation. The proposed correlation predicts the available data well within ±10%, for Prandtl number in the range 0.68-0.72 and Grashof number in the range 1.4×10⁴–1.2×10¹⁰.

Keywords: Heat transfer, inclined cylinders, natural convection, Nusselt number, Prandtl number, Grashof number.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang

Abstract:

This study provides insight into the effects of investor sentiment, excess optimism, overconfidence, the disposition effect, and herding formation on momentum profits. This study contributes to the field by providing a further examination of the relationship between psychological factors and momentum profits. The empirical results show that there is no evidence of significant momentum profits in Taiwan’s stock market. Additionally, investor sentiment in Taiwan’s stock market significantly influences its momentum profits.

Keywords: Momentum profits, psychological factors, herding formation, investor sentiment.

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