Search results for: vulnerability model

Authors: Jihan Zakarriya

Abstract:

This paper aims at examining the concepts of gender vulnerability, militarized spaces and environmental degradation in Egyptian novelist Radwa Ashour’s Specters (1999) and Iraqi novelist Betool Khadiri’s Absent (2005). Although the socio-economic, environmental and political conditions in the 1990s- Egypt and Iraq are different, this paper argues that Ashour’s Specters and Khadiri’s Absent show the two societies as sharing a concern with the politics of public participation, individual freedom and political violence. For example, while Specters exposes the planned processes of economic-political and cultural violence towards Egyptian environment and people that undermine concepts of justice, equality and democracy, Absent shows the destructive effects of the systematic, successive waves of (international) militarized interferences and socio-economic sanctions imposed on Iraq following the Gulf War that hinder efforts of social development and kindle ethnic-religious violence and polarization in the country. This paper investigates and relates issues of gender, environmental and political violence and repression in Ashour’s Specters and Khadiri’s Absent in relation to the concepts of public space and security in the two countries. The paper argues that the selected novels articulate a particular awareness of the political-international conflicts and difficulties in the 1990s-Egypt and Iraq, with the aim both to emphasize the issue of gender as a tool of oppression and power hierarchy worldwide and to figure out new notions of public participation and change.

Keywords: gender violence, public space, environment, change

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Authors: Samira Ghasempourkazemi

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In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of mutations in the urban system, which have systemic impacts, have clearly appeared. COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also caused significant losses to other departments, including the economy, education, tourism, environment and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. Particularly, today’s large urban areas are not designed in order to be compatible during a pandemic. Hence, cities are more vulnerable to infectious disease threats according to the population density, built environment and socioeconomic aspects. Considering the direct relationship between population and rate of infection, higher rates are given to those individuals located in areas with high-density populations. Population density can be a factor that seems to have a strong impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Thus, the preliminary hypothesis can be related to a densely populated areas which become hotspots for the rapid spread of the pandemic due to high levels of interaction. In addition, some other indicators can be effective in this condition, such as age range, education and socio-economy. To figure out the measure of infectious disease risk in densely populated areas in Istanbul is an objective of this study. Besides, this study intends to figure out Vulnerability Index in the case of COVID-19. In order to achieve the proper result, the considered method can be Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by involving the mentioned variables. In the end, the study represents the COVID Vulnerability of densely populated areas in a metro city and the gaps that need to be identified and plugged for the pandemic-resilience city of tomorrow.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, urban system, densely populated area

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Authors: Shank Kulkarni, Alireza Tabarraei

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The fantastic properties of polyurea such as flexibility, durability, and chemical resistance have brought it a wide range of application in various industries. Effective prediction of the response of polyurea under different loading and environmental conditions necessitates the development of an accurate constitutive model. Similar to most polymers, the behavior of polyurea depends on both strain and strain rate. Therefore, the constitutive model should be able to capture both these effects on the response of polyurea. To achieve this objective, in this paper, a nonlinear hyper-viscoelastic constitutive model is developed by the superposition of a hyperelastic and a viscoelastic model. The proposed constitutive model can capture the behavior of polyurea under compressive loading conditions at various strain rates. Four parameter Ogden model and Mooney Rivlin model are used to modeling the hyperelastic behavior of polyurea. The viscoelastic behavior is modeled using both a three-parameter standard linear solid (SLS) model and a K-BKZ model. Comparison of the modeling results with experiments shows that Odgen and SLS model can more accurately predict the behavior of polyurea. The material parameters of the model are found by curve fitting of the proposed model to the uniaxial compression test data. The proposed model can closely reproduce the stress-strain behavior of polyurea for strain rates up to 6500 /s.

Keywords: constitutive modelling, ogden model, polyurea, SLS model, uniaxial compression test

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Authors: Ramoshweu Melvin Sethobya, Emmanuel Chirenje, Mihlali Hobo, Simon Sebothoma

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The recent surge in residential infrastructure development around the metropolitan areas of South Africa has necessitated conditions for thorough geotechnical assessments to be conducted prior to site developments to ensure human and infrastructure safety. This paper appraises the success in the application of multi-method geophysical techniques for the delineation of sinkhole vulnerability in a residential landscape. Geophysical techniques ERT, MASW, VES, Magnetics and gravity surveys were conducted to assist in mapping sinkhole vulnerability, using an existing sinkhole as a constraint at Venterspost town, West of Johannesburg city. A combination of different geophysical techniques and results integration from those proved to be useful in the delineation of the lithologic succession around sinkhole locality, and determining the geotechnical characteristics of each layer for its contribution to the development of sinkholes, subsidence and cavities at the vicinity of the site. Study results have also assisted in the determination of the possible depth extension of the currently existing sinkhole and the location of sites where other similar karstic features and sinkholes could form. Results of the ERT, VES and MASW surveys have uncovered dolomitic bedrock at varying depths around the sites, which exhibits high resistivity values in the range 2500-8000ohm.m and corresponding high velocities in the range 1000-2400 m/s. The dolomite layer was found to be overlain by a weathered chert-poor dolomite layer, which has resistivities between the range 250-2400ohm.m, and velocities ranging from 500-600m/s, from which the large sinkhole has been found to collapse/ cave in. A compiled 2.5D high resolution Shear Wave Velocity (Vs) map of the study area was created using 2D profiles of MASW data, offering insights into the prevailing lithological setup conducive for formation various types of karstic features around the site. 3D magnetic models of the site highlighted the regions of possible subsurface interconnections between the currently existing large sinkhole and the other subsidence feature at the site. A number of depth slices were used to detail the conditions near the sinkhole as depth increases. Gravity surveys results mapped the possible formational pathways for development of new karstic features around the site. Combination and correlation of different geophysical techniques proved useful in delineation of the site geotechnical characteristics and mapping the possible depth extend of the currently existing sinkhole.

Keywords: resistivity, magnetics, sinkhole, gravity, karst, delineation, VES

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Authors: Hussein Altartouri

Abstract:

In this paper the kinematic and kinetic models of an omnidirectional holonomic mobile robot is presented. The kinematic and kinetic models form the OmniDrive model. Therefore, a mathematical model for the robot equipped with three- omnidirectional wheels is derived. This model which takes into consideration the kinematics and kinetics of the robot, is developed to state space representation. Relative analysis of the velocities and displacements is used for the kinematics of the robot. Lagrange’s approach is considered in this study for deriving the equation of motion. The drive train and the mechanical assembly only of the Festo Robotino® is considered in this model. Mainly the model is developed for motion control. Furthermore, the model can be used for simulation purposes in different virtual environments not only Robotino® View. Further use of the model is in the mechatronics research fields with the aim of teaching and learning the advanced control theories.

Keywords: mobile robot, omni-direction wheel, mathematical model, holonomic mobile robot

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Authors: A. Brigitte Coles

Abstract:

In order to be successful in a campaign against terror and maintain a favorable world order, we must recognize the effects of priming, framing, and agenda setting on the public sphere, and address how terrorist organizations are able to manipulate language and symbols to shift public opinion and increase recruitment success. Because of their unprecedented activity in the region and foreign recruitment success, this study specifically addresses how the Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL) manipulates the public sphere to amplify support and increase western recruitment. By following a grounded theory methodology and coding triangulated data from IS propaganda, a model for the process of terrorist recruitment has emerged, concerning both environments and personalities susceptible to recruitment, and the steps by which an extremist can be created. This has resulted in the ability to reverse engineer a method by which counter recruitment operations can be facilitated in an effort to lessen the vulnerability of areas and individuals, as well as create dissent among current extremists.

Keywords: countering violent extremism, counter-terrorism, recruitment, overton window

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Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

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A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity

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Authors: Esteban Alejandro Armas Vega, Ana Lucila Sandoval Orozco, Luis Javier García Villalba

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The benchmarking of tools for dynamic analysis of vulnerabilities in web applications is something that is done periodically, because these tools from time to time update their knowledge base and search algorithms, in order to improve their accuracy. Unfortunately, the vast majority of these evaluations are made by software enthusiasts who publish their results on blogs or on non-academic websites and always with the same evaluation methodology. Similarly, academics who have carried out this type of analysis from a scientific approach, the majority, make their analysis within the same methodology as well the empirical authors. This paper is based on the interest of finding answers to questions that many users of this type of tools have been asking over the years, such as, to know if the tool truly test and evaluate every vulnerability that it ensures do, or if the tool, really, deliver a real report of all the vulnerabilities tested and exploited. This kind of questions have also motivated previous work but without real answers. The aim of this paper is to show results that truly answer, at least on the tested tools, all those unanswered questions. All the results have been obtained by changing the common model of benchmarking used for all those previous works.

Keywords: cybersecurity, IDS, security, web scanners, web vulnerabilities

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Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies

Keywords: crop yield, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

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This paper reports the development and application of a 2D depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. K-E and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD, wind park model

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Authors: Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, Nomakhaya Monde

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Water crises have the fourth most significant societal impact after weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and extreme weather conditions, ahead of natural disasters. Intricacies between women and water are central to achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The majority of the 1.2 billion poor people worldwide, with two-thirds being women, and mostly located in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and South Asia, do not have access to safe and reliable sources of water. There exist gendered differences in water security based on the division of labour associating women with water. Globally, women and girls are responsible for water collection in 80% of the households which have no water on their premises. Women spend 16 million hours a day collecting water, while men and children spend 6 million and 4 million per day, respectively, which is time foregone in the pursuit of other livelihood activities. Due to their proximity and activities concerning water, women are vulnerable to water insecurity through exposures to water-borne diseases, fatigue from physically carrying water, and exposure to sexual and physical harassment, amongst others. Proximity to treated water and their wellbeing also has an effect on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to water insecurity. The great distances, difficult terrain and heavy lifting expose women to vulnerabilities of water insecurity. However, few studies have quantified the vulnerabilities and burdens on women, with a few taking a phenomenological qualitative approach. Vulnerability studies have also been scanty in the water security realm, with most studies taking linear forms of either quantifying exposures, sensitivities or adaptive capacities in climate change studies. The current study argues for the need for a water insecurity vulnerability assessment, especially for women into research agendas as well as policy interventions, monitoring, and evaluation. The study sought to identify and provide pathways through which female-headed households were water insecure in South Africa, the 30th driest country in the world. This was through linking the drinking water decision as well as the vulnerability frameworks. Secondary data collected during the 2016 General Household Survey (GHS) was utilised, with a sample of 5928 female-headed households. Principal Component Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling were used to analyse the data. The results show dynamic relationships between water characteristics and water treatment. There were also associations between water access and wealth status of the female-headed households. Association was also found between water access and water treatment as well as between wealth status and water treatment. The study concludes that there are dynamic relationships in water insecurity (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for female-headed households in South Africa. The study recommends that a multi-prong approach is required in tackling exposures, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities to water insecurity. This should include capacitating and empowering women for wealth generation, improve access to water treatment equipment as well as prioritising the improvement of infrastructure that brings piped and safe water to female-headed households.

Keywords: gender, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, vulnerability, water insecurity

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Authors: Debasish Chowdhury, Sunil Mekale, Sarvanamurthy Sakthivel, Sukhvinder Kaur, Rambabu Khambampati, Ashok Agarwal

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Introduction: The migrant intervention in India was initiated during the National AIDS Control Program (NACP) Phase-2 (2002-2007). HIV Sentinel surveillance Studies (HSS) conducted in 2012-13 indicated higher HIV prevalence among migrants (0.99%) compared to general populations (0.35%). Migrants continue to bear a heightened risk of HIV infection which results from the condition and structure of the migration process. USAID PHFI-PIPPSE project in collaboration with the National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) developed a unique system called Migrant Service Delivery System (MSDS) to capture migrants profile with respect to their risk profile and to provide tailor made services to them. Description: MSDS is a web-based system, designed and implemented to increase service uptake among migrants through evidence based planning. 110 destination migrants Targeted Intervention (TI) from 11 states were selected for study with varied target populations in terms of occupations; to understand occupation related risk behaviors among the migrants. Occupation wise registration data of high risk vulnerable migrants were analyzed through MSDS for the period April 2014–June 2016. Analysis was made on specific indicators among these occupational groups to understand the risk behavior and their vulnerability to HIV and STIs. Findings: Out of total HIV positive migrant’s workers (N= 847) enrolled in MSDS HIV rate is found to be highest among Auto-Rickshaw (18.66%) followed by Daily wage laborers (14.46%), Loom workers (10.73%), Industrial workers (10.04%) and Construction worker 7.93%. With 45.14% positivity, industrial workers are found to be most vulnerable to Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) (N=10057) among all occupational categories followed by loom workers (16.28%), Skilled worker (Furniture, Jeweler)-7.14%, daily wage laborers (5.45%). Conclusion: MSDS is an effective tool to assess migrants’ risk and their vulnerability to HIV for designing evidence informed program. This system calls for a replication across all destination TIs by NACO for differential strategies for different occupation groups to ensure better yield through scientific planning of intervention among high risk and high vulnerable migrants.

Keywords: migrants, migrant service delivery system, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Jui-Ching Chou

Abstract:

Numerical simulation is a popular method used to evaluate the effects of soil liquefaction on a structure or the effectiveness of a mitigation plan. Many constitutive models (UBCSAND model, PM4 model, SANISAND model, etc.) were presented to model the liquefaction phenomenon. In general, inputs of a constitutive model need to be calibrated against the soil cyclic resistance before being applied to the numerical simulation model. Then, simulation results can be compared with results from simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods. In this article, inputs of the UBCSAND model, a simple elastic-plastic stress-strain model, are calibrated against several popular generic liquefaction triggering curves of simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods via FLAC program. Calibrated inputs can provide engineers to perform a preliminary evaluation of an existing structure or a new design project.

Keywords: calibration, liquefaction, numerical simulation, UBCSAND Model

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

Abstract:

The Wairau Plains are located in the north-east of the South Island of New Zealand in the region of Marlborough. The region is cut by many active crustal faults such as the Wairau, Awatere, and Clarence faults, which give rise to frequent seismic events. This paper presents the preliminary results of the overall project in which liquefaction-induced ground damage maps are developed in the Wairau Plains based on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment NZ guidance. A suite of maps has been developed in relation to the level of details that was available to inform the liquefaction hazard mapping. Maps at the coarsest level of detail make use of regional geologic information, applying semi-quantitative criteria based on geological age, design peak ground accelerations and depth to the water table. The next level of detail incorporates higher resolution surface geomorphologic characteristics to better delineate potentially liquefiable and non-liquefiable deposits across the region. The most detailed assessment utilised CPT sounding data to develop ground damage response curves for areas across the region and provide a finer level of categorisation of liquefaction vulnerability. Linking these with design level earthquakes defined through NZGS guidelines will enable detailed classification to be carried out at CPT investigation locations, from very low through to high liquefaction vulnerability. To update classifications to these detailed levels, CPT investigations in geomorphic regions are grouped together to provide an indication of the representative performance of the soils in these areas making use of the geomorphic mapping outlined above.

Keywords: hazard, liquefaction, mapping, seismicity

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Authors: Cabangile Ncengeni Ngwane, Gerald Mills

Abstract:

Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating natural hazards such as droughts, heat waves and sea-level rise. The associated risks are the greatest in places where socio-ecological systems are exposed to these changes and the populations and infrastructure are vulnerable. Identifying the communities at risk and enhancing local resilience are key issues in responding to the current and project climate changes. This paper explores the types of risks associated with multiple overlapping hazards in Durban, South Africa where the social, cultural and economic dimensions that contribute to exposure and vulnerability are compounded by its history of apartheid. As a result, climate change risks are highly concentrated in marginalized communities that have the least adaptive capacity. In this research, a Geographic Information System is to explore the spatial correspondence among geographic layers representing hazards, exposure and vulnerability across Durban. This quantitative analysis will allow authors to identify communities at high risk and focus our study on the nature of the current human-environment relationships that result in risk inequalities. This work will employ qualitative methods to critically examine policies (including educational practices and financial support systems) and on-the-ground actions that are designed to improve the adaptive capacity of these communities and meet UN Sustainable Development Goals. This work will contribute to a growing body of literature on disaster risk management, especially as it relates to developing economies where socio-economic inequalities are correlated with ethnicity and race.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, disaster risk reduction, exposure, resilience, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

Abstract:

This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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Authors: Tran Dinh Lan, Do Thi Thu Huong

Abstract:

Among the 17 goals of the United Nations, 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, SDG 14.2 and SDG 14.4 under SDG 14 directly address the sustainable management, exploitation, and use of marine ecosystems. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to quantify the level of sustainable use of marine ecosystems, which have been paid attention for more than two decades in the direction of a quantitative approach by indicator and index development using methods of building and analyzing indicators and indices. With the employment of the above methods, over the past two decades, a number of marine ecosystems in Vietnam have been quantitatively evaluated for sustainable use for integrated coastal and marine management. Thirty indicators for sustainable use of marine ecosystems in the Northeast of Vietnam, together with indices, have been developed to assess mangrove, coral, and beach ecosystems. An assessment shows the following results. The mangrove ecosystem declined from sustainable to unsustainable uses in the period 1989-2007. The coral ecosystem in 2003 was at a sensitive point between sustainable and unsustainable uses. The beach ecosystem was evaluated with ten selected beaches in the period 2013-2018, showing that nine beaches are at a sustainable level, and one beach is at an unsustainable level. The Thua Thien-Hue coastal lagoon ecosystem assessed by 21 indicators of environmental vulnerability in 2014 showed less sustainability. The marine ecosystems around the offshore islands of Bach Long Vi, Con Co, and Tho Chu were tested to assess the level of sustainable use by the index of total economic value. The results show that these ecosystems are being used sustainably but are also at risk of falling to an unsustainable level (Tho Chu). The use of the environmental vulnerability index or economic value index to evaluate ecosystem sustainability only reflects parts of the function or value of the system but does not fully reflect the sustainability of the system.

Keywords: index, indicators, sustainability evaluation, Vietnam marine ecosystems

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Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

Abstract:

In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

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Authors: Anila Hayat

Abstract:

Pakistan is one of those developing countries that are least involved in emissions but has the most vulnerable environmental conditions. Pakistan is ranked 8th in most affected countries by climate change on the climate risk index 1992-2011. Pakistan is facing severe water shortages and flooding as a result of changes in rainfall patterns, specifically in the least developed areas such as Tharparkar. Nagarparkar, once an attractive tourist spot located in Tharparkar because of its tropical desert climate, is now facing severe drought conditions for the last few decades. This study investigates the present socio-economic situation of local communities, major impacts of droughts and their underlying causes and current mitigation strategies adopted by local communities. The study uses both secondary (quantitative in nature) and primary (qualitative in nature) methods to understand the impacts and explore causes on the socio-economic life of local communities of the study area. The relevant data has been collected through household surveys using structured questionnaires, focus groups and in-depth interviews of key personnel from local and international NGOs to explore the sensitivity of impacts and adaptation to droughts in the study area. This investigation is limited to four rural communities of union council Pilu of Nagarparkar district, including Bheel, BhojaBhoon, Mohd Rahan Ji Dhani and Yaqub Ji Dhani villages. The results indicate that drought has caused significant economic and social hardships for the local communities as more than 60% of the overall population is dependent on rainfall which has been disturbed by irregular rainfall patterns. The decline in Crop yields has forced the local community to migrate to nearby areas in search of livelihood opportunities. Communities have not undertaken any appropriate adaptive actions to counteract the adverse effect of drought; they are completely dependent on support from the government and external aid for survival. Respondents also reported that poverty is a major cause of their vulnerability to drought. An increase in population, limited livelihood opportunities, caste system, lack of interest from the government sector, unawareness shaped their vulnerability to drought and other social issues. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the local authorities shall create awareness about drought hazards and improve the resilience of communities against drought. It is further suggested to develop, introduce and implement water harvesting practices at the community level to promote drought-resistant crops.

Keywords: migration, vulnerability, awareness, Drought

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Authors: Alan Wan

Abstract:

In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Rommila Chandra, Harshika Choudhary

Abstract:

The value of integrated, participatory, and community based sustainable development strategies is eminent, but in practice, it still remains fragmentary and often leads to short-lived results. Despite the global presence of climate change, its impacts are felt differently by different communities based on their vulnerability. The developing countries have the low adaptive capacity and high dependence on environmental variables, making them highly susceptible to outmigration and poverty. We need to understand how to enable these approaches, taking into account the various governmental and non-governmental stakeholders functioning at different levels, to deliver long-term socio-economic and environmental well-being of local communities. The research assessed the financial and natural vulnerability of Himalayan networks, focusing on their potential to adapt to various changes, through accessing their perceived reactions and local knowledge. The evaluation was conducted by testing indices for vulnerability, with a major focus on indicators for adaptive capacity. Data for the analysis were collected from the villages around Govind National Park and Wildlife Sanctuary, located in the Indian Himalayan Region. The villages were stratified on the basis of connectivity via road, thus giving two kinds of human settlements connected and isolated. The study focused on understanding the complex relationship between outmigration and the socio-cultural sentiments of local people to not abandon their land, assessing their adaptive capacity for livelihood opportunities, and exploring their contribution that integrated participatory methodologies can play in delivering sustainable development. The result showed that the villages having better road connectivity, access to market, and basic amenities like health and education have a better understanding about the climatic shift, natural hazards, and a higher adaptive capacity for income generation in comparison to the isolated settlements in the hills. The participatory approach towards environmental conservation and sustainable use of natural resources were seen more towards the far-flung villages. The study helped to reduce the gap between local understanding and government policies by highlighting the ongoing adaptive practices and suggesting precautionary strategies for the community studied based on their local conditions, which differ on the basis of connectivity and state of development. Adaptive capacity in this study has been taken as the externally driven potential of different parameters, leading to a decrease in outmigration and upliftment of the human environment that could lead to sustainable livelihood development in the rural areas of Himalayas.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, Indian Himalayan region, participatory, sustainable livelihood development

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Hamed Hedayatnia, Nathan Van Den Bossche

Abstract:

Understanding the ways in which climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the conservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like freeze-thaw cycles and wind erosion is also a key parameter when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on material degradation criteria with the focus on brick masonry walls in Timurid heritage, located in Iran, was studied. The Timurids were the final great dynasty to emerge from the Central Asian steppe. Through their patronage, the eastern Islamic world in northwestern of Iran, especially in Mashhad and Herat, became a prominent cultural center. Goharshad Mosque is a mosque in Mashhad of the Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran. It was built by order of Empress Goharshad, the wife of Shah Rukh of the Timurid dynasty in 1418 CE. Choosing an appropriate regional climate model was the first step. The outputs of two different climate model: the 'ALARO-0' and 'REMO,' were analyzed to find out which model is more adopted to the area. For validating the quality of the models, a comparison between model data and observations was done in 4 different climate zones in Iran for a period of 30 years. The impacts of the projected climate change were evaluated until 2100. To determine the material specification of Timurid bricks, standard brick samples from a Timurid mosque were studied. Determination of water absorption coefficient, defining the diffusion properties and determination of real density, and total porosity tests were performed to characterize the specifications of brick masonry walls, which is needed for running HAM-simulations. Results from the analysis showed that the threatening factors in each climate zone are almost different, but the most effective factor around Iran is the extreme temperature increase and erosion. In the north-western region of Iran, one of the key factors is wind erosion. In the north, rainfall erosion and mold growth risk are the key factors. In the north-eastern part, in which our case study is located, the important parameter is wind erosion.

Keywords: brick, climate change, degradation criteria, heritage, Timurid period

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

Abstract:

In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

Abstract:

In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

Abstract:

In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Dhanuja S. Patil, Sanjay B. Waykar

Abstract:

Event detection is a standout amongst the most key parts for distinctive sorts of area applications of video data framework. Recently, it has picked up an extensive interest of experts and in scholastics from different zones. While detecting video event has been the subject of broad study efforts recently, impressively less existing methodology has considered multi-model data and issues related efficiency. Start of soccer matches different doubtful circumstances rise that can't be effectively judged by the referee committee. A framework that checks objectively image arrangements would prevent not right interpretations because of some errors, or high velocity of the events. Bayesian networks give a structure for dealing with this vulnerability using an essential graphical structure likewise the probability analytics. We propose an efficient structure for analysing and summarization of soccer videos utilizing object-based features. The proposed work utilizes the t-cherry junction tree, an exceptionally recent advancement in probabilistic graphical models, to create a compact representation and great approximation intractable model for client’s relationships in an interpersonal organization. There are various advantages in this approach firstly; the t-cherry gives best approximation by means of junction trees class. Secondly, to construct a t-cherry junction tree can be to a great extent parallelized; and at last inference can be performed utilizing distributed computation. Examination results demonstrates the effectiveness, adequacy, and the strength of the proposed work which is shown over a far reaching information set, comprising more soccer feature, caught at better places.

Keywords: summarization, detection, Bayesian network, t-cherry tree

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