Search results for: varying probability sampling

Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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Authors: Awdhesh Yadav, P. S. Saravanamurthy, Shaikh Tayyaba, Uma Shah, Ashok Agarwal

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Objectives: HIV interventions in India has leveraged Self-Help Group (SHG) as one of the key strategies under structural intervention to empower female sex workers (FSW) to reduce their risk exposure and vulnerability to STI/HIV. Understanding the role of SHGs in light of the evolving dynamics of sex work needs to be delved into to strategize HIV interventions among FSWs in India. This paper aims to study the HIV program outcome among the FSWs associated with SHGs and FSWs not associated with SHGs in Thane, Maharashtra. Study Design: This cross-sectional study, was undertaken from the Behavioral Tracking Survey (BTS) conducted among 503 FSWs in Thane in 2015. Two-stage probability based conventional sampling was done for selection of brothel and bar based FSWs, while Time Location Cluster (TLC) sampling was done for home, lodge and street-based sex workers. Methods: Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to compare and contrast between FSWs associated with SHG and those not associated with SHG with respect to the utilization of HIV related services by them. ‘Condom use’, ‘consistent condom use’, ‘contact with peer-educators’, ‘counseling sessions’ and ‘HIV testing’ were chosen as indicators on HIV service utilization. Results: 8% (38) of FSWs are registered with SHG; 92% aged ≥ 25 years, 47% illiterate, and 71% are currently married. The likelihood of utilizing HIV services including, knowledge on HIV/AIDS and its mode of transmission (OR:5.54; CI: 1.87-16.60; p < 0.05),accessed drop-in Centre (OR: 6.53; CI: 2.15-19.88; p < 0.10), heard about joint health camps (OR: 4.71; CI:2.12-10.46); p < 0.05), negotiated or stood up against police/broker/local goonda/clients (OR: 2.26; CI: 1.08-4.73; p < 0.05), turned away clients when they refused to use condom during sex (OR: 3.76; CI: 1.27-11.15; p < 0.05) and heard of ART (OR; 4.55; CI: 2.18-9.48; p < 0.01) were higher among FSWs associated with SHG in comparison to FSWs not associated with SHG. Conclusions: Considering the improved HIV program outcomes among FSWs associated with SHG; HIV interventions among FSWs could consider facilitating the formation of SHGs with FSWs as one of the key strategies to empower the community for ensuring better program outcomes.

Keywords: empowerment, female sex workers, HIV, Thane, self-help group

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Authors: Abdullah Ali H. Ahmadini, Firoz Ahmad, Intekhab Alam

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Geometric programming problem (GPP) is a well-known non-linear optimization problem having a wide range of applications in many engineering problems. The structure of GPP is quite dynamic and easily fit to the various decision-making processes. The aim of this paper is to highlight the bounded solution method for GPP with special reference to variation among right-hand side parameters. Thus this paper is taken the advantage of two-level mathematical programming problems and determines the solution of the objective function in a specified interval called lower and upper bounds. The beauty of the proposed bounded solution method is that it does not require sensitivity analyses of the obtained optimal solution. The value of the objective function is directly calculated under varying parameters. To show the validity and applicability of the proposed method, a numerical example is presented. The system reliability optimization problem is also illustrated and found that the value of the objective function lies between the range of lower and upper bounds, respectively. At last, conclusions and future research are depicted based on the discussed work.

Keywords: varying parameters, geometric programming problem, bounded solution method, system reliability optimization

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

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This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

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Authors: Rafik Ouared

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The purpose of this paper is to invalidate decisions made by the Islamic conference led at Istanbul in 2016, which had defined two basic criteria to determine the start of the lunar month: (1)they are all based on the sighting of the crescent, be it observed or computed with modern methods, and (2) they've strongly recommended the adoption of the principle of 'unification of sighting', by which any occurrence of sighting anywhere would be applicable everywhere. To demonstrate the invalidation of those statements, a survey of 101 years of data, from 1938 to 2038, have been analyzed to compare the probability density function (PDF) of time difference between different types of fajr and new moon. Two groups of fajr have been considered: the 'natural fajr', which is the very first fajr following new moon, and the 'biased fajr', which is defined by human being inclusively of all chosen definitions. The parametric and non-parametric statistical comparisons between the different groups have shown the all the biased PDFs are significantly different from the unbiased (natural) PDF with probability value (p-value) less than 0.001. The significance level was fixed to 0.05. Conclusion: the on-going reference to sighting of crescent is inducing an significant bias in defining lunar calendar. Therefore, 'natural' calendar would be more applicable requiring a more contextualized revision of issue in fiqh.

Keywords: biased fajr, lunar calendar, natural fajr, probability density function, sighting of crescent, time difference between fajr and new moon

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Authors: Muhammad Bahrul Ilmi

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of Islamic financing and work relation founding simultaneously and partially towards non-performing financing in Islamic banks. This research was regression quantitative field research, and had been done in Muammalat Indonesia Bank and Islamic Danamon Bank in 3 months. The populations of this research were 15 account officers of Muammalat Indonesia Bank and Islamic Danamon Bank in Surakarta, Indonesia. The techniques of collecting data used in this research were documentation, questionnaire, literary study and interview. Regression analysis result shows that Islamic financing and work relation founding simultaneously has positive and significant effect towards non performing financing of two Islamic Banks. It is obtained with probability value 0.003 which is less than 0.05 and F value 9.584. The analysis result of Islamic financing regression towards non performing financing shows the significant effect. It is supported by double linear regression analysis with probability value 0.001 which is less than 0.05. The regression analysis of work relation founding effect towards non-performing financing shows insignificant effect. This is shown in the double linear regression analysis with probability value 0.161 which is bigger than 0.05.

Keywords: Syariah financing, work relation founding, non-performing financing (NPF), Islamic Bank

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Authors: Mehrnaz Alibeikloo, Hadi Khabbaz, Behzad Fatahi

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Probabilistic analysis has become one of the most popular methods to quantify and manage geotechnical risks due to the spatial variability of soil input parameters. The correlation length is one of the key factors of quantifying spatial variability of soil parameters which is defined as a distance within which the random variables are correlated strongly. This paper aims to assess the impact of correlation length on the long-term settlement of soft soils improved with preloading. The concept of 'worst-case' spatial correlation length was evaluated by determining the probability of failure of a real case study of Vasby test fill. For this purpose, a finite difference code was developed based on axisymmetric consolidation equations incorporating the non-linear elastic visco-plastic model and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion method. The results show that correlation length has a significant impact on the post-construction settlement of soft soils in a way that by increasing correlation length, probability of failure increases and the approach to asymptote.

Keywords: Karhunen-Loeve expansion, probability of failure, soft soil settlement, 'worst case' spatial correlation length

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: O. A. Lawal, O. A Ojesanmi

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The demand for wireless cellular services continues to increase while the radio resources remain limited. Thus, network operators have to continuously manage the scarce radio resources in order to have an improved quality of service for mobile users. This paper proposes how to handle the problem of congestion in the mobile network by prioritizing handoff call, using the guard channel allocation scheme. The research uses specific threshold value for the time of allocation of the channel in the algorithm. The scheme would be simulated by generating various data for different traffics in the network as it would be in the real life. The result would be used to determine the probability of handoff call dropping and the probability of the new call blocking as a way of measuring the network performance.

Keywords: call block, channel, handoff, mobile cellular network

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Authors: Muneshia Maheshwar, Kanwal Gul, Shakira Fareed, Ume-Amama Areeb Gul

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Organic food is commonly known for its healthier content without the use of pesticides, herbicides, inorganic fertilizers, antibiotics and growth hormones. The aim of this research is to examine the effect of health consciousness, environmental concern and organic food knowledge on both the intention to buy organic foods and the attitude towards organic foods and the effect of attitude towards organic foods on the intention to buy organic foods in Pakistan. Primary data was used which was collected through adopted questionnaire from previous research. Non- probability convenience sampling was used to select sample size of 200 consumers based on Karachi. The data was analyzed through Descriptive statistics and Multi regression method. The findings of the study showed that the attitude and the intention to buy organic food were affected by health consciousness, environmental concern, and organic food knowledge. The results also revealed that attitude also affects the intention to buy organic food.

Keywords: health consciousness, attitude, intention to purchase, environmental concern, organic food knowledge

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

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Window system in high rise building is occasionally subjected to an excessive wind intensity, particularly during typhoon. The failure of window system did not affect overall safety of structural performance; however, it could endanger the safety of the residents. In this paper, comparison of fragility curves for window system of two residential buildings was studied. The probability of failure for individual window was determined with Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then, lognormal cumulative distribution function was used to represent the fragility. The results showed that windows located on the edge of leeward wall were more susceptible to wind load and the probability of failure for each window panel increased at higher floors.

Keywords: wind fragility, window system, high rise building, wind disaster

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Authors: Shih Yu Pan, Pao Chen Hung, Chuan Yao Lin, Charles C.-K. Chou, Yu Chi Lin, Kai Hsien Chi

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This study analyzed 16 atmospheric PAHs species which were controlled by USEPA and IARC. To measure the concentration of PAHs, four rural sampling sites and two urban sampling sites were selected in Central Taiwan during spring and summer. In central Taiwan, the rural sampling stations were located in the downstream of Da-An River, Da-Jang River, Wu River and Chuo-shui River. On the other hand, the urban sampling sites were located in Taichung district and close to the roadside. Ambient air samples of both vapor phase and particle phase of PAHs compounds were collected using high volume sampling trains (Analitica). The sampling media were polyurethane foam (PUF) with XAD2 and quartz fiber filters. Diagnostic ratio, Principal component analysis (PCA), Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) models were used to evaluate the apportionment of PAHs in the atmosphere and speculate the relative contribution of various emission sources. Because of the high temperature and low wind speed, high PAHs concentration in the atmosphere was observed. The total PAHs concentration, especially in vapor phase, had significant change during summer. During the sampling periods the total PAHs concentration of atmospheric at four rural and two urban sampling sites in spring and summer were 3.70±0.40 ng/m3,3.40±0.63 ng/m3,5.22±1.24 ng/m3,7.23±0.37 ng/m3,7.46±2.36 ng/m3,6.21±0.55 ng/m3　; 15.0± 0.14 ng/m3,18.8±8.05 ng/m3,20.2±8.58 ng/m3,16.1±3.75 ng/m3,29.8±10.4 ng/m3,35.3±11.8 ng/m3, respectively. In order to identify PAHs sources, we used diagnostic ratio to classify the emission sources. The potential sources were diesel combustion and gasoline combustion in spring and summer, respectively. According to the principal component analysis (PCA), the PC1 and PC2 had 23.8%, 20.4% variance and 21.3%, 17.1% variance in spring and summer, respectively. Especially high molecular weight PAHs (BaP, IND, BghiP, Flu, Phe, Flt, Pyr) were dominated in spring when low molecular weight PAHs (AcPy, Ant, Acp, Flu) because of the dominating high temperatures were dominated in the summer. Analysis by using PMF model found the sources of PAHs in spring were stationary sources (34%), vehicle emissions (24%), coal combustion (23%) and petrochemical fuel gas (19%), while in summer the emission sources were petrochemical fuel gas (34%), the natural environment of volatile organic compounds (29%), coal combustion (19%) and stationary sources (18%).

Keywords: PAHs, source identification, diagnostic ratio, principal component analysis, positive matrix factorization

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Authors: Fakhreddin Abedi, Wah June Leong

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Exponential stability of stochastic differential equations with non trivial solutions is provided in terms of Lyapunov functions. The main result of this paper establishes that, under certain hypotheses for the dynamics f(.) and g(.), practical exponential stability in probability at the small neighborhood of the origin is equivalent to the existence of an appropriate Lyapunov function. Indeed, we establish exponential stability of stochastic differential equation when almost all the state trajectories are bounded and approach a sufficiently small neighborhood of the origin. We derive sufficient conditions for exponential stability of stochastic differential equations. Finally, we give a numerical example illustrating our results.

Keywords: exponential stability in probability, stochastic differential equations, Lyapunov technique, Ito's formula

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The outdoor design weather data are usually comprised of multiple meteorological elements for a 24-hour period separately, but the dependency between the elements is not well considered, which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Considering the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, we used the copula approach to model the joint distributions of those two weather elements and suggest a new method of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of air temperature and global solar radiation. In this paper, the 10-year period hourly weather data from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan, was used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the result shows that the Joe-Frank copula fit for almost all hourly data. According to calculating the simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding probability of air temperature and global solar radiation, the results have shown that the maximum difference in design air temperature and global solar radiation of the day is about 2 degrees Celsius and 30W/m2, respectively.

Keywords: energy conservation, design weather database, HVAC, copula approach

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Authors: Mónica P. Cala, Juan S. Carreño, Roland J.W. Meesters

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Recently, collection of biological fluids on special filter papers has become a popular micro-sampling technique. Especially, the dried blood spot (DBS) micro-sampling technique has gained much attention and is momently applied in various life sciences reserach areas. As a result of this popularity, DBS are not only intensively competing with the venous blood sampling method but are at this moment widely applied in numerous bioanalytical assays. In particular, in the screening of inherited metabolic diseases, pharmacokinetic modeling and in therapeutic drug monitoring. Recently, microsampling techniques were also introduced in “omics” areas, whereunder metabolomics. For a metabolic profiling study we applied micro-sampling of biological fluids (blood and plasma) from healthy controls and from women with breast cancer. From blood samples, dried blood and plasma samples were prepared by spotting 8uL sample onto pre-cutted 5-mm paper disks followed by drying of the disks for 100 minutes. Dried disks were then extracted by 100 uL of methanol. From liquid blood and plasma samples 40 uL were deproteinized with methanol followed by centrifugation and collection of supernatants. Supernatants and extracts were evaporated until dryness by nitrogen gas and residues derivated by O-methyxyamine and MSTFA. As internal standard C17:0-methylester in heptane (10 ppm) was used. Deconvolution and alignment of and full scan (m/z 50-500) MS data were done by AMDIS and SpectConnect (http://spectconnect.mit.edu) software, respectively. Statistical Data analysis was done by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using R software. The results obtained from our preliminary study indicate that the use of dried blood/plasma on paper disks could be a powerful new tool in metabolic profiling. Many of the metabolites observed in plasma (liquid/dried) were also positively identified in whole blood samples (liquid/dried). Whole blood could be a potential substitute matrix for plasma in Metabolomic profiling studies as well also micro-sampling techniques for the collection of samples in clinical studies. It was concluded that the separation of the different sample methodologies (liquid vs. dried) as observed by PCA was due to different sample treatment protocols applied. More experiments need to be done to confirm obtained observations as well also a more rigorous validation .of these micro-sampling techniques is needed. The novelty of our approach can be found in the application of different biological fluid micro-sampling techniques for metabolic profiling.

Keywords: biofluids, breast cancer, metabolic profiling, micro-sampling

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Authors: Surinder Pal Singh, Sanjay Goel

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The paper presents results of an investigation conducted to study the flexural fatigue characteristics of Self Compacting Concrete (SCC) and Self Compacting Fibre Reinforced Concrete (SCFRC). In total 360 flexural fatigue tests and 270 static flexural strength tests were conducted on SCC and SCFRC specimens to obtain the fatigue test data. The variability in the distribution of fatigue life of SCC and SCFRC have been analyzed and compared with that of NVC and NVFRC containing steel fibres of comparable size and shape. The experimental coefficients of fatigue equations have been estimated to represent relationship between stress level (S) and fatigue life (N) for SCC and SCFRC containing different fibre volume fractions. The probability of failure (Pf) has been incorporated in S-N relationships to obtain families of S-N-Pf relationships. A good agreement between the predicted curves and those obtained from the test data has been observed. The fatigue performance of SCC and SCFRC has been evaluated in terms of two-million cycles fatigue strength/endurance limit. The theoretic fatigue lives were also estimated using single-log fatigue equation for 10% probability of failure to estimate the enhanced extent of theoretic fatigue lives of SCFRC with reference to SCC and NVC. The reduction in variability in the fatigue life, increased endurance limit and increased theoretiac fatigue lives demonstrates an overall better fatigue performance for SCC and SCFRC.

Keywords: fatigue life, fibre, probability of failure, self-compacting concrete

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Authors: Anam Bhatti, Sumbal Arif, Mariam Mehar, Sohail Younas

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CSR has become one of the imperative implements in satisfying customers. The impartial of this research is to calculate CSR, relationship marketing, and customer satisfaction. In Pakistan, there is not enough research work on the effect of CSR and relationship marketing on relationship maintainer and customer loyalty. To find out deductive approach and survey method is used as research approach and research strategy respectively. This research design is descriptive and quantitative study. For data, collection questionnaire method with semantic differential scale and seven point scales are adopted. Data has been collected by adopting the non-probability convenience technique as sampling technique and the sample size is 400. For factor confirmatory factor analysis, structure equation modeling and medication analysis, regression analysis Amos software were used. Strong empirical evidence supports that the customer’s perception of CSR performance is highly influenced by the values.

Keywords: CSR, Relationship marketing, Relationship maintainer, Customer loyalty, Customer satisfaction

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

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Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: wind fragility, glass window, high rise building, wind disaster

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Authors: Punnoose A. K.

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This paper presents an approach for identifying noisy speech recording using a multi-layer perception (MLP) trained to predict phonemes from acoustic features. Characteristics of the MLP posteriors are explored for clean speech and noisy speech at the frame level. Appropriate density functions are used to fit the softmax probability of the clean and noisy speech. A function that takes into account the ratio of the softmax probability density of noisy speech to clean speech is formulated. These phoneme independent scoring is weighted using a phoneme-specific weightage to make the scoring more robust. Simple thresholding is used to identify the noisy speech recording from the clean speech recordings. The approach is benchmarked on standard databases, with a focus on precision.

Keywords: noisy speech identification, speech pre-processing, noise robustness, feature engineering

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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This paper propose the method for optimal scheduling for battery energy storage system with reliability constraint of energy storage system in reliability aspect. The optimal scheduling problem is solved by dynamic programming with proposed transition matrix. Proposed optimal scheduling method guarantees the minimum fuel cost within specific reliability constraint. For evaluating proposed method, the timely capacity outage probability table (COPT) is used that is calculated by convolution of probability mass function of each generator. This study shows the result of optimal schedule of energy storage system.

Keywords: energy storage system (ESS), optimal scheduling, dynamic programming, reliability constraints

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

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Authors: Josephine Muchiri, Makena Muriithi

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Adverse mental health consequences are experienced by those that have been touched by Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), whether directly or indirectly. These negative effects are felt not only in the short term but in years to come. It is important to examine the prevalence and co-occurrence of mental disorders in order to provide strategic interventions for women who have experienced IPV. The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and comorbidity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), Depression, and Anxiety among women who had experienced intimate Partner violence in two selected informal settlements in Nairobi County, Kenya. Participants were 116 women (15-60 years) selected through purposive and snowball sampling from the low social, economic settlements (Kawangware and Kibera) in Nairobi, Kenya. A social demographic questionnaire and the Woman Abuse Screening Tool (WAST) were used to collect data on intimate partner violence experiences. The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), Beck’s Depression Inventory, and the Beck’s Anxiety Inventory assessed for post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety, respectively. Data analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 29, utilizing descriptive and correlation analyses. Findings indicated that the women had undergone various forms of abuse from their intimate partners, which were physical abuse 111(92.5%), sexual abuse 70(88.6%), and verbal abuse 92(93.9%). The prevalence of the mental disorders was PTSD 47(32.4%); M= 44.11, S.D =14.67, depression was the highest at n=131(90.3%; M=33.37±9.98) with the levels of depression having varying prevalence rates where severe depression had the highest representation [moderate: n= 35; 24.1%, severe: n=69 (47.6%) and extremely severe: n=27(18.6%)]. Anxiety had the second highest prevalence of n=99 (68.8%; M= 28.55±13.63) with differing prevalence rates in the levels of anxiety which were normal anxiety: 45(31.3%), moderate anxiety n=62(43.1%) and severe anxiety: n=37(25.7%). Regarding comorbidities, the Pearson correlation test showed that there was a significant (p=0.000) positive relationship between PTSD and depression (r=0.379; p=.000), PTSD and anxiety (r=0.624; p=.000), and depression and anxiety (r=0.386; p=.000) such that increase in one disorder concomitantly led to increase of the other two disorders; hence comorbidity of the three disorders was ascertained. Conclusion: The study asserted the adverse impacts of IPV on women’s mental well-being, where the prevalence of PTSD, depression, and anxiety was established. Almost all the women had depressive symptoms; whereas more than half had anxiety and slightly more than a third had PTSD. Regarding the severity levels of anxiety and depression, almost half of the women with depression had severe depression whereas moderate anxiety was more prevalent for those with anxiety. The three disorders were found to co-occur where comorbidities of PTSD and anxiety had the highest probability of co-occurrence. It is thus recommended that mental health interventions with a focus on the three disorders be offered for women undergoing IPV.

Keywords: anxiety, comorbidity, depression, intimate partner violence, post-traumatic stress disorder

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Authors: Maharjan Shree Kumar

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Climate change impacts are observed in all livelihood sectors primarily in agriculture and forestry. Multiple factors have influenced the climate vulnerabilities and adaptations in agricultural at the household level. This study focused on the factors affecting adaptation in agriculture in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Central and Western Nepal. The systematic random sampling technique was applied to select 154 households in Madi and 150 households in Deukhuri. The main purpose of the study was to analyze the socio-economic factors that either influence or restrain the farmers’ adaptation to climate change at the household level by applying the linear probability model. Based on the analysis, it is revealed that crop diversity, education, training and total land holding (acre) were positively significant for adaptation choices the study sites. Rest of the variables were not significant though indicated positive as expected except age, occupation, ethnicity, family size, and access to credit.

Keywords: adaptation, agriculture, climate, factors, Nepal

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Authors: Samuel Ato Dadzie

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The objective of this study is to examine the influence of eclectic paradigm on motivational strategy of foreign subsidiaries in Ghana. This study uses binary regression model, and the analysis was based on 75 manufacturing investments made by MNEs from different countries in 1994–2008. The results indicated that perceived market size increases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) in Ghana, while perceived cultural distance between Ghana and foreign firm’s home countries decreased the probability of foreign firms undertaking an market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Furthermore, extensive international experience decreases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Most of the studies done by earlier researchers were based on the advanced and emerging countries and offered support for the theory, which was used in generalizing the result that multinational corporations (MNCs) normally used the theory regarding investment strategy outside their home country. In using the same theory in the context of Ghana, the result does not offer strong support for the theory. This means that MNCs that come to Sub-Sahara Africa cannot rely much on eclectic paradigm for their motivational strategies because prevailing economic conditions in Ghana are different from that of the advanced and emerging economies where the institutional structures work.

Keywords: foreign subsidiary, motives, Ghana, foreign direct investment

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Authors: Muhammad Nouman Qureshi, Muhammad Hanif

Abstract:

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is specifically developed for the estimation of highly clumped populations and applied to a wide range of situations like animals of rare and endangered species, uneven minerals, HIV patients and drug users. In this paper, we proposed a generalized semi-exponential estimator with two auxiliary variables under the framework of ACS design. The expressions of approximate bias and mean square error (MSE) of the proposed estimator are derived. Theoretical comparisons of the proposed estimator have been made with existing estimators. A numerical study is conducted on real and artificial populations to demonstrate and compare the efficiencies of the proposed estimator. The results indicate that the proposed generalized semi-exponential estimator performed considerably better than all the adaptive and non-adaptive estimators considered in this paper.

Keywords: auxiliary information, adaptive cluster sampling, clustered populations, Hansen-Hurwitz estimation

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Authors: Ali Mustafa Elshawesh, Mohamed Abdulali

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach to dimension circuit switched networks and find the relationship between the parameters of the circuit switched networks on the condition of specific probability of call blocking. Our work is creating a Simulation code based on Erlang (B) formula to draw graphs which show two curves for each graph; one of simulation and the other of calculated. These curves represent the relationships between average number of calls and average call duration with the probability of call blocking. This simulation code facilitates to select the appropriate parameters for circuit switched networks.

Keywords: Erlang B formula, call blocking, telephone system dimension, Markov model, link capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Jamal A. Radaideh, Ziad N. Shatnawi

Abstract:

Both indoor and outdoor air quality is investigated throughout residential areas of Al Hofuf city/ Eastern province of Saudi Arabia through a multi‐week multiple sites measurement and sampling survey. Concentration levels of five criteria air pollutants, including carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrous dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and total volatile organic compounds (TVOC) were measured and analyzed during the study period from January to May 2014. For this survey paper, three different sites, roadside RS, urban UR, and rural RU were selected. Within each site type, six locations were assigned to carryout air quality measurements and to study varying indoor/outdoor air quality for each pollutant. Results indicate that a strong correlation between indoor and outdoor air exists. The I/O ratios for the considered criteria pollutants show that the strongest relationship between indoor and outdoor air is found by analyzing of carbon dioxide, CO2 (0.88), while the lowest is found by both NO2 and SO2 (0.7).

Keywords: criteria air pollutants, indoor/outdoor air pollution, indoor/outdoor ratio, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Jihoon Lim, Patrick Kirchen, Ryozo Nagamune

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear parameter-varying (LPV) controller capable of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions with low ammonia (NH3) slip downstream of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems. SCR systems are widely adopted in diesel engines due to high NOx conversion efficiency. However, the nonlinearity of the SCR system and sensor uncertainty result in a challenging control problem. In order to overcome the control challenges, an LPV controller is proposed based on gain-scheduling parameters, that is, exhaust gas temperature and exhaust gas flow rate. Based on experimentally obtained data under the non-road transient driving cycle (NRTC), the simulations firstly show that the proposed controller yields high NOx conversion efficiency with a desired low NH3 slip. The performance of the proposed LPV controller is then compared with other controllers, including a gain-scheduling PID controller and a sliding mode controller. Additionally, the robustness is also demonstrated using the uncertainties ranging from 10 to 30%. The results show that the proposed controller is robustly stable under uncertainties.

Keywords: diesel engine, gain-scheduling control, linear parameter-varying, selective catalytic reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 123