Search results for: uncertainty

Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

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What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

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Authors: S. Dey, T. Mukhopadhyay, S. Adhikari

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This paper presents an exhaustive comparative investigation on sampling techniques of polynomial regression model based stochastic natural frequency of composite plates. Both individual and combined variations of input parameters are considered to map the computational time and accuracy of each modelling techniques. The finite element formulation of composites is capable to deal with both correlated and uncorrelated random input variables such as fibre parameters and material properties. The results obtained by Polynomial regression (PR) using different sampling techniques are compared. Depending on the suitability of sampling techniques such as 2k Factorial designs, Central composite design, A-Optimal design, I-Optimal, D-Optimal, Taguchi’s orthogonal array design, Box-Behnken design, Latin hypercube sampling, sobol sequence are illustrated. Statistical analysis of the first three natural frequencies is presented to compare the results and its performance.

Keywords: composite plate, natural frequency, polynomial regression model, sampling technique, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Ashok Kumar, Anjali Sharma

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As cities grow and expand spatially, redevelopment in urban India is beginning to emerge as a new mode of urban expansion sweeping low-income informal settlements. This paper examines the extent and nature of expanding urban frontier before examining implications for the families living in these settlements. Displacement of these families may appear to be an obvious consequence. However, we have conducted ethnographic studies over the past several months in a Delhi slum named Kathputli Colony, Delhi. In depth analysis of the study for this slum appears to present a variegated set of consequences for the residents of informal settlements including loss of livelihoods, dismantling of family ties, and general anxiety arising out of uncertainty about resettlement. Apart from Delhi case study, we also compare and contrast another redevelopment case from Mumbai located at Bhendi Bazar. These examples from the two mega cities of Mumbai and Delhi are analysed to understand and explore expanding urban frontiers and their consequences for informing future public policy.

Keywords: informal settlements, policy, redevelopment, urban

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Irina Canco, Amela Malaj

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It is evident that there exists a relationship between supply chain management and business performance. Surveys have showed that in many cases the manager's beliefs and expectations on supply chain management do not match the reality of the business. In this context, the study of supply chain issues is of particular importance and interest considering specifically the current period. The economic problems of this period, are present in Albania as well. The complexity of the supply chain focuses on order fulfilment. Therefore, in this paper, attention will be paid to the impact of supply chain management on business performance. The objective of the paper is to find a relationship between the good supply chain management and business performance. This research is based on the results of surveys referring to the experience of successful businesses on issues related to sustainable supply chain management and its synchronization with the provision of products and services required by the final customers. This study clearly evidenced the impact of the speed of meeting customer requirements on AMAZONA performance. This was also confirmed mathematically through one of the decision criteria in conditions of uncertainty—Laplace criterion.

Keywords: supply chain management, AMAZONA, business performance, Laplace criteria

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

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Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution

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Authors: Khavieya Anandhan, Soundarapandian Santhanakrishnan, Vijayaraghavan Laxmanan

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In general, measurement of surfaces is carried out by using traditional methods such as contact type stylus instruments. This prevalent approach is challenged by using non-contact instruments such as optical profiler, co-ordinate measuring machine, laser triangulation sensors, machine vision system, etc. Recently, confocal sensor is trying to be used in the surface metrology field. This sensor, such as a confocal sensor, is explored in this study to determine the surface roughness value for various turned surfaces. Turning is a crucial machining process to manufacture products such as grooves, tapered domes, threads, tapers, etc. The roughness value of turned surfaces are in the range of range 0.4-12.5 µm, were taken for analysis. Three instruments were used, namely, perthometer, optical profiler, and confocal sensor. Among these, in fact, a confocal sensor is least explored, despite its good resolution about 5 nm. Thus, such a high-precision sensor was used in this study to explore the possibility of measuring turned surfaces. Further, using this data, measurement uncertainty was also studied.

Keywords: confocal sensor, optical profiler, surface roughness, turned surfaces

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram

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The development of effective decision support tools that adopted in the construction industry is vital in the world we live in today, since it can lead to substantial cost reduction and efficient resource consumption. Solving the time-cost trade off problems and its related variants is at the heart of scientific research for optimizing construction planning problems. In general, the classical optimization techniques have difficulties in dealing with TCT problems. One of the main reasons of their failure is that they can easily be entrapped in local minima. This paper presents an investigation on the application of meta-heuristic techniques to two particular variants of the time-cost trade of analysis, the time-cost trade off problem (TCT), and time-cost trade off optimization problem (TCO). In first problem, the total project cost should be minimized, and in the second problem, the total project cost and total project duration should be minimized simultaneously. Finally it is expected that, the optimization models developed in this paper will contribute significantly for efficient planning and management of construction project.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, optimization, time cost trade off problems

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Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Lin Wei, Hengshan Zhang, Tianhua Chen, Yimin Zhou

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The assembly line balancing problems are signficant in mass production systems. In order to deal with the uncertainties that practically exist but barely mentioned in the literature, this paper develops a mathematic model with an optimisation algorithm to solve the assembly line balancing problem with uncertainty operation time. The developed model is able to work with a variable number of workstations under the uncertain environment, aiming to obtain the minimal number of workstation and minimal idle time for each workstation. In particular, the proposed approach first introduces the concept of protection time that closely works with the uncertain operation time. Four dominance rules and the mechanism of determining up and low bounds are subsequently put forward, which serve as the basis for the proposed branch and bound algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed work verified on a benchmark data set is able to solve the uncertainties efficiently.

Keywords: assembly lines, SALBP-UOT, uncertain operation time, branch and bound algorithm.

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Authors: Raed H. Allawi

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Formation pressure is the most critical parameter in hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. Specifically, predicting abnormal pressures (high formation pressures) and subnormal pressure zones can provide valuable information to minimize uncertainty for anticipated drilling challenges and risks. This study aims to interpret and delineate the pore and fracture pressure of the Mishrif reservoir in the southern Iraq Oilfield. The data required to implement this study included acoustic compression wave, gamma-ray, bulk density, and drilling events. Furthermore, supporting these models needs the pore pressure measurement from the Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT). Many measured values of pore pressure were used to validate the accurate model. Using sonic velocity approaches, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was about 4%. The fracture pressure results were consistent with the measurement data, actual drilling report, and events. The model's results will be a guide for successful drilling in future wells in the same oilfield.

Keywords: pore pressure, fracture pressure, overburden pressure, effective stress, drilling events

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Authors: Samir Assal

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This paper considers an international sample of venture capital and private equity funds to assess the role of law, corruption and culture in setting fund manager fees in terms of their fixed management fees, carried interest performance fees, clawbacks of fees and cash versus share distributions of fees. The data highlight a role of legal conditions in shaping fees paid to fund managers. In countries with better legal conditions, fixed fees are lower, carried interest fees are higher, clawbacks are less likely, and share distributions are more likely. These findings suggest legal conditions help to align the interests of managers and shareholders. More specifically, we examine which element of legal conditions matter most, and discover that corruption levels play a pronounced role in shaping fund manager fee contracts. We also show that cultural forces such as Hofstede’s measures of power distance and uncertainty avoidance likewise play a role in influencing fees.

Keywords: managerial compensation, incentive contracts, private equity, law and finance

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Authors: Huan Lin, Liwen Pang

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In order to reduce the ambiguity and uncertainty of product form bionic design, a product form bionic design method based on eye tracking is proposed. The eye-tracking experiment is designed to calculate the average time ranking of the specific parts of the bionic shape that the subjects are looking at. Key bionic shape is explored through the experiment and then applied to a desk lamp bionic design. During the design case, FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierachy Process) and SD (Semantic Differential) method are firstly used to identify consumer emotional perception model toward desk lamp before product design. Through investigating different desk lamp design elements and consumer views, the form design factors on the desk lamp product are reflected and all design schemes are sequenced after caculation. Desk lamp form bionic design method is combined the key bionic shape extracted from eye-tracking experiment and priority of desk lamp design schemes. This study provides an objective and rational method to product form bionic design.

Keywords: Bionic design; Form; Eye tracking; FAHP; Desk lamp

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Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

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Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, Monte Carlo, simulation, wind turbine

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Authors: Marwin M. Dela Cruz

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Aviation as a transport sector is supportive of the seventeen (17) Sustainable Goals espoused by the United Nations. Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) states that over 18.1 million indirect jobs globally were sustained through the purchase of goods and services by companies in the aviation industry. This supply chain activity contributed approximately $816.4 billion to global GDP. This was achieved through numerous actions to lessen economic uncertainty and challenges. Its impact is not just a by-product of economic activity but of the facilities it generates. As the aviation industry is unifying its efforts, education and training should also come with it. The need for aviation education and training and a well-crafted regulatory policy initiated by lawmakers can provide a better aviation education. The Philippine State College of Aeronautics (PhilSCA), being the only government Higher Education Institution (HEI) in the Philippines, is given a very distinct congressional mandate to offer aviation-related courses to afford those in the aviation industry the opportunity to pursue studies. Having this, the industry has become the precursor and venue of present-day communities. In addition, it becomes an essential measure of a better life.

Keywords: Philippine state college of aeronautics, aviation industry, sustainable goals, aviation education

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Authors: Nilamadhab Mohanty

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It is essential to use message formats that make communication understandable and correct. It is because; the information format can influence consumer decision on the purchase of a product. This study combines information from qualitative inquiry, media trend analysis, eye tracking experiment, and questionnaire data to examine the impact of specific message format and consumer perceived risk on attention to the information and risk retention. We investigated the influence of message framing (goal framing, attribute framing, and mix framing) on consumer memory, study time, and decisional uncertainty while deciding on the purchase of drugs. Furthermore, we explored the impact of consumer perceived risk (associated with the use of the drug, i.e., RISK-AB and perceived risk associated with the non-use of the drug, i.e., RISK-EB) on message format preference. The study used eye-tracking methods to understand the differences in message processing. Findings of the study suggest that the message format influences information processing, and participants' risk perception impacts message format preference. Eye tracking can be used to understand the format differences and design effective advertisements.

Keywords: message framing, consumer perceived risk, advertising, eye tracking

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Authors: Qusai Alshahwan

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The arbitrator’s duties of independence and impartiality play a significant role in delivering arbitral awards which legitimate the fundamental of arbitration concepts. For this reason, the international and national arbitration rules require arbitrators to be independent and impartial to solve the arbitration disputes fairly between the parties. However, solving the disputes fairly also requires arbitrators to disclose any existing conflicts of interest with the parties to avoid misunderstanding and late challenges. In contrary with the international and national arbitration rules, the English Arbitration Act 1996 does not include independence as a separate ground for arbitrator’s removal, and importantly the English Arbitration Act 1996 is deliberately silent to the arbitrator duty of disclosure. The absence of arbitrator duty of disclosure is an issue had generated uncertainty and concerns for the arbitration community under the English jurisdiction, particularly when the English courts rejected the IBA guidelines of arbitrator conflict of interest such as in case of Halliburton v Chubb for example. This article is highlighting on the legal consequences of the absence of arbitrator duty of disclosure under the English Arbitration Act 1996 and the arbitrator's contractual obligations.

Keywords: arbitration, impartiality, independence, duty of disclosure, English Arbitration Act 1996

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Authors: Abdulsalam Mas’ud

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Though Nigerian Biofuel Policy and Incentive was introduced in 2007, however, little if any is known about the impact of such policy for biodiesel development in Nigeria. It can be argued that lack of raw materials is one of the important factors that hinder the proper implementation of the policy. In line with this argument, this study aims to explore the determinants of smallholder farmers’ intention to adopt Jatropha as raw materials for biodiesel development in northern Nigeria, with Jigawa State as area of study. The determinants proposed for investigation covers personal factors, physical factors, institutional factors, economic factors, risk and uncertainty factors as well as social factors. The validation of the proposed model will have the implication of guiding policymakers towards enhancement of farmers’ participation in the Jatropha project for biodiesel raw materials production. The eventual byproducts of the proposed model validation and implementation will be employment generation, poverty reduction, combating dessert encroachment, economic diversification to renewable energy sources and electricity generation.

Keywords: adoption, biodiesel, factors, jatropha

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Authors: Gaoguang Yang, Shan Fu

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Human-machine interface (HMI) intermediate system information to human operators to facilitate human ability to manage and control the system. Well-designed HMI would enhance human ability. An evaluation must be performed to confirm that the designed HMI would enhance but not degrade human ability. However, the prevalent HMI evaluation techniques have difficulties in more thoroughly and accurately evaluating the suitability and fitness of a given HMI for the wide variety of uncertainty contained in both the existing HMI evaluation techniques and the large number of task scenarios. The first limitation should be attributed to the subjective and qualitative analysis characteristics of these evaluation methods, and the second one should be attributed to the cost balance. This study aims to explore the connection between objective HMI characters and ergonomic safety and step forward toward solving these limitations with objective, characterized HMI parameters. A simulation experiment was performed with the time needed for human operators to recognize the HMI information as characterized HMI parameter, and the result showed a strong correlation between the parameter and ergonomic safety level.

Keywords: Human-Machine Interface (HMI), evaluation, objective, characterization, simulation

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Authors: Hong-Ming Chen

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This work considers the resolution of the Hull and White interest rate model with the jump process. A deterministic process is adopted to model the random behavior of interest rate variation as deterministic perturbations, which is depending on the time t. The Brownian motion and jumps uncertainty are denoted as the integral functions piecewise constant function w(t) and point function θ(t). It shows that the interest rate function and the yield function of the Hull and White interest rate model with jump process can be obtained by solving a nonlinear semi-infinite programming problem. A relaxed cutting plane algorithm is then proposed for solving the resulting optimization problem. The method is calibrated for the U.S. treasury securities at 3-month data and is used to analyze several effects on interest rate prices, including interest rate variability, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates. The numerical results illustrate that our approach essentially generates the yield functions with minimal fitting errors and small oscillation.

Keywords: optimization, interest rate model, jump process, deterministic

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Authors: Yashar Ibragimov, Nino Berishvili

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Technological, economic and other innovation-related advances of the 21st century have influenced the old, traditional business models. Presently, organizational change has become an integral part of corporate strategy for the majority of businesses. Such shifts have resulted in both new challenges and opportunities. The expansion of the use of information and communication technologies has driven fundamental shifts towards digital change. Organizations are being forced to revise processes, goals and overall mission in order to stay competitive in the marketplace. However, the implementation of digital transformation brings uncertainty, causes stress and raises concerns about future jobs. The study employs systematic literature review to fill the gap in understanding relationship between employee motivation and commitment during the transformation. A conceptual model proposes the antecedents (OCB and Leader Member Exchange) of employee motivation and investigates its impact on employee commitment to change. The utilized model elucidates how to maintain employee motivation and commitment in the context of organizational transformation and sets the ground for future research.

Keywords: employee motivation, change commitment, change management, leader member exchange, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: Xin Jie Li

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Due to population agglomeration, huge scale, and complex activities, megacities have become risk centers. To resist the risks brought by development uncertainty, the construction of resilient cities has become a common strategic choice for megacities. As a key link in promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, optimizing the layout of national land space that focuses on ecology, production, and life and improving the rationality of spatial resource allocation are conducive to fundamentally promoting the resilience construction of megacities. Therefore, based on the perspective of territorial space governance, this article explores the potential risks faced by the territorial space of megacities and proposes possible paths for the resilience construction of megacities from four aspects: promoting the construction of a resilience system throughout the entire life cycle, constructing a disaster prevention and control system with ecological resilience, creating an industrial spatial pattern with production resilience, and enhancing community resilience to anchor the front line of risk response in megacities.

Keywords: mega cities, potential risks, resilient city construction, territorial and spatial governance

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Authors: Zylfi Shehu, Rozeta Shatku

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The aim of this study is the identification of the goods and the consequences it brings up the mountain climbing to the youth, how mountain climbing influences in physical activity and the health of young people. Taken to study 37 young people aged 18-30 years, 25 males and 12 females. The selection was made at random and voluntary. Subjects were not professionals but amateurs climbing in the mountain. They were informed and instructed for the test to be carried out. The ascent was made in January 2016 in the Mount of Gjallica in Kukës, Albania, the height of the mountain is 2489 m above sea level. Backpack for each subject weighing 32 kg. Time of ascent, attitude and descent was 6 days. In 22 males, 2 of them did not afford the ascent on the first day and went back. Of the 12 women, 5 of them withdrew on the first day. During the descent on day six, 20 males 7 of them had minor injuries, three with serious injuries. While a total of 7 women, 4 of them had minor injuries and one with serious injuries. Most of the men and women who deal with physical activity throughout life faced the light and were not injured, and the rest that were not dealt with physical activity were more injured. Lack of experience and knowledge was one of the causes of injuries. The subjects had anxiety all the time, uncertainty and fear of avalanches of snow and difficult terrain.

Keywords: climbing, physical activity, young people

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Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Kioumarsi

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In this paper, using the response surface method (RSM), tornado diagram method and non-linear finite element analysis, the effect of four parameters on residual bending capacity of a corroded RC beam was investigated. The parameters considered are amount of localised cross section reduction, ratio of pit distance on adjacent bars to rebar distance, concrete compressive strength, and rebar tensile strength. The focus is on the influence on the bending ultimate limit state. Based on the obtained results, the effects of the ratio of pit distance to rebar distance (Lp⁄Lr) and the ratio of the localised cross section reduction to the original area of the rebar (Apit⁄A0) were found significant. The interference of localised corrosion on adjacent reinforcement bars reduces the bending capacity of under-reinforced concrete beam. Using the sensitivity analysis could lead to recognize uncertainty parameters, which have the most influences on the performance of the structure.

Keywords: localised corrosion, concrete beam, sensitivity analyses, ultimate capacity

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Authors: Rimac Smiljanic Ana, Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana

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Financial decision-making in the household is not simple, and it demands that the decision-maker has proper knowledge and skills. Usually, high uncertainty, risk, and stress surround household financial decision-making since it is extremely important and critical for household wealth accumulation and for the well-being of all household members. Generally, skilful people tend to have higher confidence in certain tasks they perform, and they achieve better results. Therefore, in the household context, the possession of certain skills by the ones who make financial decisions for the household is of particular importance. This paper addresses financial literacy as an important skill for household decision-making. Apart from financial literacy, the paper also considers other factors, such as employment, education, and age, as significant for household financial decision-making. The analysis is based on quantitative individual-level survey data. The data collection was conducted during January and February 2021 in Croatia through an online survey. To reach a wide variety of participants, the snowball sampling method was used. The result revealed interesting and somewhat puzzling results. Our results point to the importance of financial literacy skills for household decision-making.

Keywords: skill, financial literacy, decision-making, household financijal decision making

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Authors: Ahteshamul Haq, Srikant Gupta, Murshid Kamal, Irfan Ali

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This case study designs and builds a multi-objective production planning model for a hardware firm with certain & uncertain data. During the time of interaction with the manager of the firm, they indicate some of the parameters may be vague. This vagueness in the formulated model is handled by the concept of fuzzy set theory. Triangular & Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to represent the uncertainty in the collected data. The fuzzy nature is de-fuzzified into the crisp form using well-known defuzzification method via graded mean integration representation method. The proposed model attempts to maximize the production of the firm, profit related to the manufactured items & minimize the carrying inventory costs in both certain & uncertain environment. The recommended optimal plan is determined via fuzzy programming approach, and the formulated models are solved by using optimizing software LINGO 16.0 for getting the optimal production plan. The proposed model yields an efficient compromise solution with the overall satisfaction of decision maker.

Keywords: production planning problem, multi-objective optimization, fuzzy programming, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Sylvain Caillol

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Uncertainty in terms of price and availability of petroleum, in addition to global political and institutional tendencies toward the principles of sustainable development, urge chemical industry to a sustainable chemistry and particularly the use of renewable resources in order to synthesize biobased chemicals and products. We propose a platform approach for the synthesis of various building blocks from cardanol in one or two-steps syntheses. Cardanol, which is a natural phenol, is issued from Cashew Nutshell Liquid (CNSL), a non-edible renewable resource, co-produced from cashew industry in large commercial volumes. Cardanol is particularly interesting to replace fossil aromatic groups in polymers and materials. Our team studied various routes for the synthesis of cardanol-derived biobased building blocks used after that in polymer syntheses. For example, we used phenolation to dimerize/oligomerize cardanol to propose increase functionality of cardanol. Thio-ene was used to synthesize new reactive amines. Epoxidation and (meth)acrylation were also used to insert oxirane or (meth)acrylate groups in order to synthesize polymers and materials.

Keywords: cardanol, cashew nutshell liquid, epoxy, vinyl ester, latex, emulsion

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Ming-Yue Zhai

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Due to the multipath and pulse noise nature, power line communications(PLC) channel can be modelled as a memory one with the finite states Markov model(FSMC). As the most important parameter modelling a Markov channel,the memory order in an FSMC is not solved in PLC systems yet. In the paper, the mutual information is used as a measure of the dependence between the different symbols, treated as the received SNA or amplitude of the current channel symbol or that of previous symbols. The joint distribution probabilities of the envelopes in PLC systems are computed based on the multi-path channel model, which is commonly used in PLC. we confirm that given the information of the symbol immediately preceding the current one, any other previous symbol is independent of the current one in PLC systems, which means the PLC channels is a Markov chain with the first-order. The field test is also performed to model the received OFDM signals with the help of AR model. The results show that the first-order AR model is enough to model the fading channel in PLC systems, which means the amount of uncertainty remaining in the current symbol should be negligible, given the information corresponding to the immediately preceding one.

Keywords: power line communication, channel model, markovian, information theory, first-order

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