Search results for: uncertainty avoidance

Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

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The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

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Authors: Lo Kai Chung

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Fathers in the family of disabled children play a crucial role in fostering child development. Previous studies addressing emotions of father involvement in rearing children with special needs have been rare. With reference to the cultural orientation and masculine idea of Chinese fathers, shame and guilt are probable causal emotions that affect fathers’ psycho-behavioral reactions and, thus, father involvement. Based on the findings of our earlier qualitative studies, the current study aims to develop and validate a multi-item scale of guilt or shame and explore their relations with and fatherhood in families with children with special needs. A model is proposed to understand the roles that shame and guilt play in affecting fathers’ involvement in their family system. The severity and type of the child’s special needs are regarded as independent variables affecting the father’s emotional responses – shame and guilt. It is hypothesized that shame and guilt, under the influence of masculinity, lead to avoidance and compensation, respectively, which subsequently decrease and increase father involvement with children with special needs. A cross-sectional online questionnaire survey of fathers with children with special needs recruited by convenience sampling was conducted. Potential participants were reached by bulk emails, related groups on the Internet and education/social services providers. Totally 537 valid sets of online questionnaires were collected from fathers of children with special needs. EFA on the items pool of shame and guilt was performed, resulting in an x-item single-factor solution and y-item single-factor solution, respectively. Further path model analysis revealed that shame and guilt, under the influence of masculinity, showed differential avoidance and compensation responses and resulted in a decrease and increase in father involvement with special needs children. Demographic and key confounding variables were controlled in the analysis. The shame and guilt scales developed show good psychometric properties. Furthermore, they showed significant differential impacts, under the influence of masculinity, on avoidance and compensation behaviours, consequently resulting in a decrease/increase in father involvement in the expected directions. The findings have important theoretical and practical implications. At the community and policy level, the findings inform the design of strategies for strengthening the role of men in families with special needs children.

Keywords: emotions, father involvement, guilt, shame, special needs

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Authors: Mehrdad Mahmudizad, Roya Ahmadi Ahangar

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This paper presents the method of designing the type 2 fuzzy PID controllers in order to solve the problem of Load Frequency Control (LFC). The Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is used to regulate the measurement factors and the effect of uncertainty of membership functions of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (IT2FPID) controllers in order to reduce the frequency deviation resulted from the load oscillations. The simulation results implicitly show that the performance of the proposed IT2FPID LFC in terms of error, settling time and resistance against different load oscillations is more appropriate and preferred than PID and Type 1 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (T1FPID) controllers.

Keywords: load frequency control, fuzzy-pid controller, type 2 fuzzy system, harmony search algorithm

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Authors: Imane Khalil, Quinn Pratt

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In a nuclear reactor, an array of fuel rods containing stacked uranium dioxide pellets clad with zircalloy is the heat source for a thermodynamic cycle of energy conversion from heat to electricity. After fuel is used in a nuclear reactor, the assemblies are stored underwater in a spent nuclear fuel pool at the nuclear power plant while heat generation and radioactive decay rates decrease before it is placed in packages for dry storage or transportation. A computational model of a Boiling Water Reactor spent fuel assembly is modeled using FLUENT, the computational fluid dynamics package. Heat transfer simulations were performed on the two-dimensional 9x9 spent fuel assembly to predict the maximum cladding temperature for different input to the FLUENT model. Uncertainty quantification is used to predict the heat transfer and the maximum temperature profile inside the assembly.

Keywords: spent nuclear fuel, conduction, heat transfer, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Shabnam Pashaei, Mohammadali Badamchizadeh

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This paper presents a new fractional-order terminal sliding mode control for synchronization of two different fractional-order chaotic systems with uncertainty and external disturbances. A fractional-order integral type nonlinear switching surface is presented. Then, using the Lyapunov stability theory and sliding mode theory, a fractional-order control law is designed to synchronize two different fractional-order chaotic systems. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the performance and applicability of the proposed method. Based on numerical results, the proposed controller ensures that the states of the controlled fractional-order chaotic response system are asymptotically synchronized with the states of the drive system.

Keywords: terminal sliding mode control, fractional-order calculus, chaotic systems, synchronization

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Authors: Adolfo Martucci, Iulian Mihai

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By means of the expansion through a Conical Nozzle and the low pressure inside the Test Chamber, a large hypersonic stable flow takes place for a duration of up to 30 minutes. Downstream the Test Chamber, the diffuser has the function of reducing the flow velocity to subsonic values, and as a consequence, the temperature increases again. In order to cool down the flow, a heat exchanger is present at the end of the diffuser. The Vacuum System generates the necessary vacuum conditions for the correct hypersonic flow generation, and the DeNOx system, which follows the Vacuum System, reduces the nitrogen oxide concentrations created inside the plasma flow behind the limits imposed by Italian law. This very large, powerful, and complex facility allows researchers and engineers to reproduce entire re-entry trajectories of space vehicles into the atmosphere. One of the most important parameters for a hypersonic flowfield representative of re-entry conditions is the specific total enthalpy. This is the whole energy content of the fluid, and it represents how severe could be the conditions around a spacecraft re-entering from a space mission or, in our case, inside a hypersonic wind tunnel. It is possible to reach very high values of enthalpy (up to 45 MJ/kg) that, together with the large allowable size of the models, represent huge possibilities for making on-ground experiments regarding the atmospheric re-entry field. The maximum nozzle exit section diameter is 1950 mm, where values of Mach number very much higher than 1 can be reached. The specific total enthalpy is evaluated by means of a number of measurements, each of them concurring with its value and its uncertainty. The scope of the present paper is the evaluation of the sensibility of the uncertainty of the specific total enthalpy versus all the parameters and measurements involved. The sensors that, if improved, could give the highest advantages have so been individuated. Several simulations in Python with the METAS library and by means of Monte Carlo simulations are presented together with the obtained results and discussions about them.

Keywords: hypersonic, uncertainty, enthalpy, simulations

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Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

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Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Dora Bianchi, Anthony Schinelli, Laura Maria Fatta, Antonia Lonigro, Fabio Lucidi, Fiorenzo Laghi

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Purpose: The role of body image in adolescent binge eating is widely confirmed, albeit the various facets of this relationship are still mostly unexplored. Within the multidimensional body image framework, this study hypothesized the indirect effects of three body image coping strategies (positive rational acceptance, appearance fixing, avoidance) in the expected relationship between the perceived impact of body image on individuals’ quality of life and binge eating symptoms. Methods: Participants were 715 adolescents aged 15-21 years (49.1% girls) recruited in Italian schools. An anonymous self-report online survey was administered. A multiple mediation model was tested. Results: A more positive perceived impact of body image on quality of life was a negative predictor of adolescents’ binge eating, controlling for individual levels of body satisfaction. Three indirect effects were found in this relationship: on one hand, the positive body image impact reduced binge eating via increasing positive rational acceptance (M1), and via reducing avoidance (M2); on the contrary, the positive body image impact also enhanced binge eating via increasing appearance fixing (M3). Conclusions: The body image impact on quality of life can be alternatively protective—when adaptive coping is solicited, and maladaptive strategies are reduced—or a risk factor, which may increase binge eating by soliciting appearance fixing.

Keywords: binge eating, body image satisfaction, quality of life, coping strategies, adolescents

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Ruwandika Perera

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Even though the Sri Lankan government provides a reasonable level of support for students at all levels of the school system, for example, free education, textbooks, school uniforms, subsidized public transportation, and school meals, low participation in learning among secondary students is an issue warranting investigation, particularly in low socio-economic districts. This study attempted to determine the levels of motivation and engagement amongst students in a number of schools in two low socio-economic districts of Sri Lanka. This study employed quantitative research design in an attempt to determine levels of motivation and engagement amongst Sri Lankan secondary school students. Motivation and Engagement Scale-Junior School (MES-JS) was administered among 100 Sinhala-medium and 100 Tamil-medium eighth-grade students (50 students from each gender). The mean age of the students was 12.8 years. Schools were represented by type 2 government schools located in Monaragala and Nuwara Eliya districts in Sri Lanka. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to measure the construct validity of the scale. Since this did not provide a robust solution, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted. Four factors were identified; Failure Avoidance and Anxiety (FAA), Positive Motivation (PM), Uncertain Control (UC), and Positive Engagement (PE). An independent-samples t-test was conducted to compare PM, PE, FAA, and UC in gender and ethnic groups. There was no significant difference identified for PE, FAA, and UC scales based upon gender. These results indicate that for the participants in this study, there were no significant differences based on gender in the levels of failure avoidance and anxiety, uncertain control, and positive engagement in the school experience. But, the result for the PM scale was close to significant, indicating there may be differences based on gender for positive motivation. A significant difference exists for all scales based on ethnicity, with the mean result for the Tamil students being significantly higher than that for the Sinhala students. These results indicate those Sinhala-medium students’ levels of positive motivation and positive engagement in learning was lower than Tamil-medium students. Also, these results indicate those Tamil-medium students’ levels of failure avoidance, anxiety, and uncertain control was higher than Sinhala-medium students. It could be concluded that male students levels of PM were significantly lower than female students. Also, Sinhala-medium students’ levels of PM and PE was lower than Tamil-medium students, and Tamil-medium students levels of FAA and UC was significantly higher than Sinhala-medium students. Thus, there might be particular school-related conditions affecting this situation, which are related to early adolescents’ motivation and engagement in learning.

Keywords: early adolescents, engagement, low socio-economic districts, motivation

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Authors: Haatembo Mooya

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Cross-culturally, exclusive maternal care of infants is an exception, rather than a rule. In most traditional non-Western societies, child care is shared within the family while in most middle class Western societies parents tend to rely more on ‘hired hands’ for support. In both contexts however, a common caregiver is the sibling. Despite this, the phenomenon of sib-care has remained relatively understudied. Cultural and gender differences in sib-care and attachment were explored using a retrospective survey instrument comparing Zambian and Dutch college students. The total study sample (N = 394) comprised of 200 Zambian students from the University of Zambia and 194 Dutch students from Leiden University, the Netherlands. We tested four main hypotheses. Firstly, we hypothesized that the Zambian subjects performed more sib-care than Dutch subjects. Secondly we hypothesized that female participants performed more sib-care than males participants, both among the Zambian and Dutch subjects, especially when parents are not at home. Thirdly, we hypothesized that larger family size was associated with more sib-care. Finally, we hypothesized that securely attached participants performed more sib-care than their less securely attached peers. Results indicated that sib-care was prevalent in both Zambian and Dutch samples. Zambian subjects performed more sib-care than Dutch subjects, with females performing more sib-care than males, both when parents were at home (F(2, 244) = 62.09, p < .01) and when parents were not at home (F(2, 237) = 51.28, p < .01). We also found that family size and attachment related avoidance and anxiety were not significant predictors of sib-care. It is concluded that sib-care is understudied, not only in Africa but also in Western societies and that females perform more sib-care than males, especially when the parents are not at home. In addition, attachment related avoidance and anxiety appear to be more related to the quality than the quantity of sib-care provided.

Keywords: sibling, sib-care, attachment, Africa, Zambia, the Netherlands

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Matthew Holland, Jason Everett, Martin Cox, Iain Suthers

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High spatial-resolution distribution of planktivorous reef fish can reveal behavioural adaptations to optimise the balance between feeding success and predator avoidance. We used a multi-beam echosounder to record bathymetry and the three-dimensional distribution of fish schools associated with natural and artificial reefs. We utilised generalised linear models to assess the distribution, orientation, and aggregation of fish schools relative to the structure, vertical relief, and currents. At artificial reefs, fish schooled more closely to the structure and demonstrated a preference for the windward side, particularly when exposed to strong currents. Similarly, at natural reefs fish demonstrated a preference for windward aspects of bathymetry, particularly when associated with high vertical relief. Our findings suggest that under conditions with stronger current velocity, fish can exercise their preference to remain close to structure for predator avoidance, while still receiving an adequate supply of zooplankton delivered by the current. Similarly, when current velocity is low, fish tend to disperse for better access to zooplankton. As artificial reefs are generally deployed with the goal of creating productivity rather than simply attracting fish from elsewhere, we advise that future artificial reefs be designed as semi-linear arrays perpendicular to the prevailing current, with multiple tall towers. This will facilitate the conversion of dispersed zooplankton into energy for higher trophic levels, enhancing reef productivity and fisheries.

Keywords: artificial reef, current, forage fish, multi-beam, planktivorous fish, reef fish, schooling

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Authors: Mabel Usunobun Olanipekun, Henry Ogbemudia Omoregbee

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Anomalies such as water pipeline and hydraulic or petrochemical pipeline network leakages and bursts have significant implications for economic conditions and the environment. In order to ensure pipeline systems are reliable, they must be efficiently controlled. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have become a powerful network with critical infrastructure monitoring systems for water, oil and gas pipelines. The loss of water, oil and gas is inevitable and is strongly linked to financial costs and environmental problems, and its avoidance often leads to saving of economic resources. Substantial repair costs and the loss of precious natural resources are part of the financial impact of leaking pipes. Pipeline systems experts have implemented various methodologies in recent decades to identify and locate leakages in water, oil and gas supply networks. These methodologies include, among others, the use of acoustic sensors, measurements, abrupt statistical analysis etc. The issue of leak quantification is to estimate, given some observations about that network, the size and location of one or more leaks in a water pipeline network. In detecting background leakage, however, there is a greater uncertainty in using these methodologies since their output is not so reliable. In this work, we are presenting a scalable concept and simulation where a pressure-driven model (PDM) was used to determine water pipeline leakage in a system network. These pressure data were collected with the use of acoustic sensors located at various node points after a predetermined distance apart. We were able to determine with the use of correlation difference to determine the leakage point locally introduced at a predetermined point between two consecutive nodes, causing a substantial pressure difference between in a pipeline network. After de-noising the signal from the sensors at the nodes, we successfully obtained the exact point where we introduced the local leakage using the correlation difference model we developed.

Keywords: leakage detection, acoustic signals, pipeline network, correlation, wireless sensor networks (WSNs)

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Authors: Samira Alvandi

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In the context of the circular economy, production planning aims to eliminate waste and emissions and maximize resource efficiency. Historically production planning is challenged through arrays of uncertainty and complexity arising from the interdependence and variability of products, processes, and systems. Manufacturers worldwide are facing new challenges in tackling various environmental issues such as climate change, resource depletion, and land degradation. In managing the inherited complexity and uncertainty and yet maintaining profitability, the manufacturing sector is in need of a holistic framework that supports energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction schemes. The proposed framework addresses the current challenges and integrates simulation modeling with optimization for finding optimal machine-job allocation to maximize throughput and total energy consumption while minimizing lead time. The aluminium refinery facility in western Sydney, Australia, is used as an exemplar to validate the proposed framework.

Keywords: smart production planning, simulation-optimisation, energy aware capacity planning, energy intensive industries

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Authors: Hao Zhang, Hongyang Yu

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Scale uncertainty is a well-known challenging problem in visual SLAM. Because RGB-D sensor provides depth information, RGB-D SLAM improves this scale uncertainty problem. However, due to the limitation of physical hardware, the depth map output by RGB-D sensor usually contains a large area of missing depth values. These missing depth information affect the accuracy and robustness of RGB-D SLAM. In order to reduce these effects, this paper completes the missing area of the depth map output by RGB-D sensor and then fuses the completed dense depth map into ORB SLAM2. By adding the process of obtaining pixel-level dense depth maps, a better RGB-D visual SLAM algorithm is finally obtained. In the process of obtaining dense depth maps, a deep learning model of indoor scenes is adopted. Experiments are conducted on public datasets and real-world environments of indoor scenes. Experimental results show that the proposed SLAM algorithm has better robustness than ORB SLAM2.

Keywords: RGB-D, SLAM, dense depth, depth map

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Authors: Zubaidan Yushan, Hudayar Cıhan

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Turkiye and China are countries that have collective cultures, but they have different cultural backgrounds. They have different cultures, different religions, and different levels of economic development. The aim of this study is to test the moderation effect of caregiver bonding on the relationship between dating violence and coping strategies among unmarried emerging adults in China and Turkiye. Participants ages were 19 and 26 years (X=23.66, SD=3.66), unmarried emerging adults Turkish 171 participants (72.5% women, 24% men, 3.5% prefer not to say), Chinese 170 participants (71.8% women, 21.8% men, 6.5% prefer not to say). All participants had been in a relationship for more than six months. Participants completed The Conflict Tactics Scales—(CTS2), The Cope Inventory, and The Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI). Examining the dating violence and coping strategies of the participant's relationship through caregiver bonding moderation analysis was performed using the Jamovi. Significance was tested using the bootstrapping method with bias-corrected confidence estimates. The outcome variable for analysis was dating violence, and the predictor variable for the analysis was coping strategies. The moderator variable evaluated for the analysis was parent attachment. Before the analysis, the mean-centered scores of each variable and moderator were calculated. Furthermore, the moderation analysis was conducted separately for each outcome. The Moderation analysis results show that the sub-dimension of over-protection moderates psychological aggression perpetration and avoidance coping in China. The sub-dimension of care moderates injury victimization and avoidance management in Turkiye; also, over-protection moderates injury victimization and social support coping. Moreover, the sub-dimension of care moderates sexual coercion perpetration and avoidance coping. In the results, caregiver bonding moderates the relationship between coping strategies and dating violence, which may be explained by the fact that our ways of coping with problems are learned, and people are influenced by their parents when they face problems. Therefore, problem-solving is permanently fixed, and each person has his or her fixed solution, which leads to a habit of using solutions to problems. However, sometimes, these solutions become the justification for the injured or abusive person. The quality of the attachment between parents can regulate this state. The results are somewhat similar to and slightly different from those in the previous literature. These mixed results indicate the need for further exploration. Many other factors, such as alcohol, drug violence, and pathological problems, maybe the reasons for these differences. In addition, diverse factors such as the study environment and the applied measurement scales may also affect the results.

Keywords: caregiver bonding, coping strategies, dating violence, emerging adulthood, cross-cultural, comparison

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Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

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This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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Authors: Desmond Agbolade Ademola

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This work aimed to introduce a theory, called Guided Energy Theory of a particle that answered questions that arise from quantum foundation, quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation such as: what is nature of wavefunction? Is mathematical formalism of wavefunction correct? Does wavefunction collapse during measurement? Do quantum physical entanglement and many world interpretations really exist? In addition, is there uncertainty in the physical reality of our nature as being concluded in the Quantum theory? We have been able to show by the fundamental analysis presented in this work that the way quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation describes nature is not correlated with physical reality. Because, we discovered amongst others that, (1) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally provides complete physical observable series of quantized measurement of a particle momentum, force, energy e.t.c. in a given distance and time.In contrast, quantum mechanics wavefunction describes that nature has inherited probabilistic and indeterministic physical quantities, resulting in unobservable physical quantities that lead to many worldinterpretation.(2) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally predicts that it is mathematically possible to determine precise quantized measurementof position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. Because, there is no uncertainty in nature; nature however naturally guides itself against uncertainty. Contrary to the conclusion in quantum mechanics theory that, it is mathematically impossible to determine the position and the momentum of a particle simultaneously. Furthermore, we have been able to show by this theory that, it is mathematically possible to determine quantized measurement of force acting on a particle simultaneously, which is not possible on the premise of quantum mechanics theory. (3) It is evidently shown by our theory that, guided energy does not collapse, only describes the lopsided nature of a particle behavior in motion. This pretty offers us insight on gradual process of engagement - convergence and disengagement – divergence of guided energy holders which further highlight the picture how wave – like behavior return to particle-like behavior and how particle – like behavior return to wave – like behavior respectively. This further proves that the particles’ behavior in motion is oscillatory in nature. The mathematical formalism of Guided energy theory shows that nature is certainty whereas the mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory shows that nature is absolutely probabilistics. In addition, the nature of wavefunction is the guided energy of the wave. In conclusion, the fundamental mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory is wrong.

Keywords: momentum, physical entanglement, wavefunction, uncertainty

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: B. Sadek, N. Khan, D. Łażewska, K. Kieć-Kononowicz

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The effects of the non-imidazole histamine H3 receptor (H3R) antagonist DL77 in passive avoidance paradigm (PAP) and novel object recognition (NOR) task in MK801-induced cognitive deficits associated with schizophrenia (CDS) in adult male rats, and applying donepezil (DOZ) as a reference drug were investigated. The results show that acute systemic administration of DL77 (2.5, 5, and 10 mg/kg, i.p.) significantly improved MK801-induced (0.1 mg/kg, i.p.) memory deficits in PAP. The ameliorating activity of DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) in MK801-induced deficits was partly reversed when rats were pretreated with the centrally-acting H2R antagonist zolantidine (ZOL, 10 mg/kg, i.p.) or with the antimuscarinic antagonist scopolamine (SCO, 0.1 mg/kg, i.p.), but not with the CNS penetrant H1R antagonist pyrilamine (PYR, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). Moreover, the memory enhancing effect of DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) in MK801-induced memory deficits in PAP was strongly reversed when rats were pretreated with a combination of ZOL (10 mg/kg, i.p.) and SCO (1.0 mg/kg, i.p.). Furthermore, the significant ameliorative effect of DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) on MK801-induced long-term memory (LTM) impairment in NOR test was comparable to the DOZ-provided memory-enhancing effect, and was abrogated when animals were pretreated with the histamine H3R agonist R-(α)-methylhistamine (RAMH, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). However, DL77(5 mg/kg, i.p.) failed to provide procognitive effect on MK801-induced short-term memory (STM) impairment in NOR test. In addition, DL77 (5 mg/kg) did not alter anxiety levels and locomotor activity of animals naive to elevated-plus maze (EPM), demonstrating that improved performances with DL77 (5 mg/kg) in PAP or NOR are unrelated to changes in emotional responding or spontaneous locomotor activity. These results provide evidence for the potential of H3Rs for the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders related to impaired memory function, e.g. CDS.

Keywords: histamine H3 receptor, antagonist, learning, memory impairment, passive avoidance paradigm, novel object recognition

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Authors: B. Sadek, N. Khan, Shreesh K. Ojha, Adel Sadeq, D. Lazewska, K. Kiec-Kononowicz

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The involvement of Histamine H3 receptors (H3Rs) in memory and the potential role of H3R antagonists in pharmacological control of neurodegenerative disorders, e.g., Alzheimer disease (AD) is well established. Therefore, the memory-enhancing effects of the H3R antagonist DL77 on MK801-induced cognitive deficits were evaluated in passive avoidance paradigm (PAP) and novel object recognition (NOR) tasks in adult male rats, applying donepezil (DOZ) as a reference drug. Animals pretreated with acute systemic administration of DL77 (2.5, 5, and 10 mg/kg, i.p.) were significantly ameliorated in regard to MK801-induced memory deficits in PAP. The ameliorative effect of most effective dose of DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) was abrogated when animals were pretreated with a co-injection with the H3R agonist R-(α)-methylhistamine (RAMH, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). Moreover, and in the NOR paradigm, DL77 (5 mg/kg, i.p.) reversed MK801-induced deficits long-term memory (LTM), and the DL77-provided procognitive effect was comparable to that of reference drug DOZ, and was reversed when animals were co-injected with RAMH (10 mg/kg, i.p.). However, DL77(5 mg/kg, i.p.) failed to alter short-term memory (STM) impairment in NOR test. Furthermore, DL77 (5 mg/kg) failed to induce any alterations of anxiety and locomotor behaviors of animals naive to elevated-plus maze (EPM), indicating that the ameliorative effects observed in PAP or NOR tests were not associated to alterations in emotions or in natural locomotion of tested animals. These results reveal the potential contribution of H3Rs in modulating CNS neurotransmission systems associated with neurodegenerative disorders, e.g., AD.

Keywords: histamine H3 receptor, antagonist, learning and memory, Alzheimer's disease, neurodegeneration, passive avoidance paradigm, novel object recognition, behavioral research

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Turki Adnan Kamal, Abdulmajeed Ahmad Alsofiany, Nemer Khidhran Husain Alghamdi, Ali Eissa Hassan Al-Rajhi

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Background:- Health care workers are ranked as one of the most vulnerable groups experiencing violence and aggressive behavior compared to other occupational groups. Objectives:- To estimate the prevalence rate and characteristics and assess the avoidance measures, and notification of the violence among medical staff working in primary health care centers in Taif city. Subject and methods:- A cross-sectional study design was applied among all physicians and a representative sample of nurses working in primary health care centers affiliated with the Ministry of Health (MOH) in Taif city. A predesigned Arabic/English validated self-administered questionnaire was used. Results:- In this study, 56 physicians and 145 nurses responded, giving a response rate of 77.6%. Their age ranged from 25 and 60 years (36.2±8.2), with 59.7% of them aged between 25 and 35 years. Males represent 55.7% of them. More than half of them (52.2%) were Saudis. The prevalence of workplace violence was 30.3%. Verbal abuse was the commonest reported type (86.9%). The absence of security, training on the procedures that must be followed and special uniforms at the workplace were significantly associated with workplace violence. We concluded that workplace violence is a significant problem facing a considerable proportion of HCWs in primary health care centers in Taif, Saudi Arabia. Most violence incidents were verbal. Conclusion:- Findings of this study revealed that HCWs who were dealing with male patients only were at high risk of workplace violence and the absence of measures to avoid workplace violence, particularly security, training on the procedures that must be followed and special uniform at the workplace was significantly associated with workplace violence.

Keywords: violence, workplace, primary health care, prevalence, avoidance

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Paresh Patel, Harshit Patel

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Superficial fungal skin infection is among the most common skin disease. The drug administration through skin has received attention due to several advantages: Avoidance of significant pre-systemic metabolism, drug levels within the therapeutic window, drugs with short biological half-lives, decreased side effects, the non-invasive character, and very high acceptance.

Keywords: transdermal spray, ketoconazole, Eudragit® RLPO, therapeutic window

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Shreya Banerjee, Prasanta K. Panigrahi

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The three-way distributive entanglement is shown to be related to the parallelism of vectors. Using a measurement-based approach a set of 2−dimensional vectors is formed, representing the post-measurement states of one of the parties. These vectors originate at the same point and have an angular distance between them. The area spanned by a pair of such vectors is a measure of the entanglement of formation. This leads to a geometrical manifestation of the 3−tangle in 2−dimensions, from inequality in the area which generalizes for n− qubits to reveal that the n− tangle also has a planar structure. Quantifying the genuine n−party entanglement in every 1|(n − 1) bi-partition it is shown that the genuine n−way entanglement does not manifest in n− tangle. A new quantity geometrically similar to 3−tangle is then introduced that represents the genuine n− way entanglement. Extending the formalism to 3− qutrits, the nonlocality without entanglement can be seen to arise from a condition under which the post-measurement state vectors of a separable state show parallelism. A connection to nontrivial sum uncertainty relation analogous to Maccone and Pati uncertainty relation is then presented using decomposition of post-measurement state vectors along parallel and perpendicular direction of the pre-measurement state vectors. This study opens a novel way to understand multiparty entanglement in qubit and qudit systems.

Keywords: Geometry of quantum entanglement, Multipartite and distributive entanglement, Parallelism of vectors , Tangle

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Ghussoun Al-Jeiroudi

Abstract:

Stochastic programming is one of the powerful technique which is used to solve real-life problems. Hence, the data of real-life problems is subject to significant uncertainty. Uncertainty is well studied and modeled by stochastic programming. Each day, problems become bigger and bigger and the need for a tool, which does deal with large scale problems, increase. Interior point method is a perfect tool to solve such problems. Interior point method is widely employed to solve the programs, which arise from stochastic programming. It is an iterative technique, so it is required a starting point. Well design starting point plays an important role in improving the convergence speed. In this paper, we propose a starting point for interior point method for multistage stochastic programming. Usually, the optimal solution of stage k+1 is used as starting point for the stage k. This point has the advantage of being close to the solution of the current program. However, it has a disadvantage; it is not in the feasible region of the current program. So, we suggest to take this point and modifying it. That is by adding to it a vector in the null space of the matrix of the unchanged constraints because the solution will change only in the null space of this matrix.

Keywords: interior point methods, stochastic programming, null space, starting points

Procedia PDF Downloads 390