Search results for: uncertain time series

Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh

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Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, CCR Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Sekkal Nawel

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The Web of Things (WoT), integration of smart technologies from the Internet or network to Web architecture or application, is becoming more complex, larger, and dynamic. The WoT is associated with various elements such as sensors, devices, networks, protocols, data, functionalities, and architectures to perform services for stakeholders. These services operate in the context of the interaction of stakeholders and the WoT elements. Such context is becoming a key information source from which data are of various nature and uncertain, thus leading to complex situations. In this paper, we take interest in the development of intelligent Web services. The key ingredients of this “intelligent” notion are the context diversity, the necessity of a semantic representation to manage complex situations and the capacity to reason with uncertain data. In this perspective, we introduce a multi-layered architecture based on a generic intelligent Web service model dealing with various contexts, which proactively predict future situations and reactively respond to real-time situations in order to support decision-making. For semantic context data representation, we use PR-OWL, which is a probabilistic ontology based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks (MEBN). PR-OWL is flexible enough to represent complex, dynamic, and uncertain contexts, the key requirements of the development for the intelligent Web services. A case study was carried out using the proposed architecture for intelligent plant watering to show the role of proactive and reactive contextual reasoning in terms of WoT.

Keywords: smart web service, the web of things, context reasoning, proactive, reactive, multi-entity bayesian networks, PR-OWL

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Authors: Mahdi Daghmhehci Firoozjaei, Minchang Kim, Dima Alhadidi

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In this paper, we present a power profiling model for smart grid consumers based on real time load data acquired smart meters. It profiles consumers’ power consumption behaviour using the dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering algorithm. Due to the invariability of signal warping of this algorithm, time-disordered load data can be profiled and consumption features be extracted. Two load types are defined and the related load patterns are extracted for classifying consumption behaviour by DTW. The classification methodology is discussed in detail. To evaluate the performance of the method, we analyze the time-series load data measured by a smart meter in a real case. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed profiling method with 90.91% true positive rate for load type clustering in the best case.

Keywords: power profiling, user privacy, dynamic time warping, smart grid

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Authors: Wiem Gadri

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This study delves into the intriguing properties of Pisot and Salem numbers within the framework of formal Laurent series over finite fields, a domain where these numbers’ spectral charac-teristics, Λm(β) and lm(β), have yet to be fully explored. Utilizing a methodological approach that combines algebraic number theory with the analysis of power series, we extend the foundational work of Erdos, Joo, and Komornik to this new setting. Our research uncovers bounds for lm(β), revealing how these depend on the degree of the minimal polynomial of β and thus offering a novel characterization of Pisot and Salem formal power series. The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of these numbers, highlighting their distribution and properties in the context of formal power series. This investigation not only bridges number theory with formal power series analysis but also sets the stage for further interdisciplinary research in these areas.

Keywords: Pisot numbers, Salem numbers, formal power series, over a finite field

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

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The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modelling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modelling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modelling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.

Keywords: content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Sandeep Kaur Chouhan, Jatinderdeep Kaur, S. S. Bhatia

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The existence of sine and cosine series as a Fourier series, their L1-convergence seems to be one of the difficult question in theory of convergence of trigonometric series in L1-metric norm. In the literature so far available, various authors have studied the L1-convergence of cosine and sine trigonometric series with special coefficients. In this paper, we present a modified cosine and sine sums and criterion for L1-convergence of these modified sums is obtained. Also, a necessary and sufficient condition for the L1-convergence of the cosine and sine series is deduced as corollaries.

Keywords: conjugate Dirichlet kernel, Dirichlet kernel, L1-convergence, modified sums

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Authors: Houda Najeh, Stéphane Ploix, Mahendra Pratap Singh, Karim Chabir, Mohamed Naceur Abdelkrim

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Building systems are highly vulnerable to different kinds of faults and failures. In fact, various faults, failures and human behaviors could affect the building performance. This paper tackles the detection of unreliable sensors in buildings. Different literature surveys on diagnosis techniques for sensor grids in buildings have been published but all of them treat only bias and outliers. Occurences of data gaps have also not been given an adequate span of attention in the academia. The proposed methodology comprises the automatic thresholding for data gap detection for a set of heterogeneous sensors in instrumented buildings. Sensor measurements are considered to be regular time series. However, in reality, sensor values are not uniformly sampled. So, the issue to solve is from which delay each sensor become faulty? The use of time series is required for detection of abnormalities on the delays. The efficiency of the method is evaluated on measurements obtained from a real power plant: an office at Grenoble Institute of technology equipped by 30 sensors.

Keywords: building system, time series, diagnosis, outliers, delay, data gap

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Authors: K. Subbaiah

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Friction stir welding is a solid state welding process. Friction stir welding process eliminates the defects found in fusion welding processes. It is environmentally friend process. 5000 and 6000 series aluminum alloys are widely used in the transportation industries. The Al-Mg-Mn (5000) and Al-Mg-Si (6000) alloys are preferably offer best combination of use in Marine construction. The medium strength and high corrosion resistant 5000 series alloys are the aluminum alloys, which are found maximum utility in the world. In this review, the tool pin profile, process parameters such as hardness, yield strength and tensile strength, and microstructural evolution of friction stir welding of Al-Mg alloys 5000 Series and 6000 series have been discussed.

Keywords: 5000 series and 6000 series Al alloys, friction stir welding, tool pin profile, microstructure and properties

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Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Jatinderdeep Kaur

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In this paper, the results of Kano from one-dimensional cosine and sine series are extended to two-dimensional cosine and sine series. To extend these results, some classes of coefficient sequences such as the class of semi convexity and class R are extended from one dimension to two dimensions. Under these extended classes, I have checked the function f(x,y) is two dimensional Fourier Cosine and Sine series or equivalently it represents an integrable function. Further, some results are obtained which are the generalization of Moricz's results.

Keywords: conjugate dirichlet kernel, conjugate fejer kernel, fourier series, semi-convexity

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Authors: Slobodan B. Tričković

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We present the results concerned with trigonometric series that include sine and cosine functions with a parameter appearing in the denominator. We derive two types of closed-form formulas for trigonometric series. At first, for some integer values, as we know that Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ equal zero at negative even integers, whereas Dirichlet’s β function equals zero at negative odd integers, after a certain number of members, the rest of the series vanishes. Thus, a trigonometric series becomes a polynomial with coefficients involving Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ, β functions. On the other hand, in some cases, one cannot immediately replace the parameter with any positive integer because we shall encounter singularities. So it is necessary to take a limit, so in the process, we apply L’Hospital’s rule and, after a series of rearrangements, we bring a trigonometric series to a form suitable for the application of Choi-Srivastava’s theorem dealing with Hurwitz’s zeta function and Harmonic numbers. In this way, we express a trigonometric series as a polynomial over Hurwitz’s zeta function derivative.

Keywords: Dirichlet eta lambda beta functions, Riemann's zeta function, Hurwitz zeta function, Harmonic numbers

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Authors: Nazima Ellahi, Danish Ramzan

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There is a growing trend among development economists regarding the importance of financial sector for economic development and growth activities. The development thus introduced, helps to promote welfare effects and poverty alleviation. This study is an attempt to find the nature of link between Islamic banking financing and development of output growth for Pakistan. Time series data set has been utilized for a time period ranging from 1990 to 2010. Following the Phillip Perron (PP) and Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test of unit root this study applied Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method of estimation and found encouraging results in favor of promoting the Islamic banking practices in Pakistan.

Keywords: Islamic finance, poverty alleviation, economic growth, finance, commerce

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Authors: Anthony Usoro

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In this paper, two classes of bilinear time series model are obtained under certain conditions from the general bilinear autoregressive moving average model. Bilinear Autoregressive (BAR) and Bilinear Moving Average (BMA) Models have been identified. From the general bilinear model, BAR and BMA models have been proved to exist for q = Q = 0, => j = 0, and p = P = 0, => i = 0 respectively. These models are found useful in modelling most of the economic and financial data.

Keywords: autoregressive model, bilinear autoregressive model, bilinear moving average model, moving average model

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Evren Şar İşbilen

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As it is known, the movies and tv series are occupying a large part in the daily lives of adults and children in our era. In this connection, in the present study, the most popular historical TV series of recent years in Turkey, “Muhteşem Yüzyıl” (The Magnificent Century), was selected as the sample for the data collection in order to explore the perception of history of university students’. The data collected was analyzed bothqualitatively and quantitatively. The findings discussed in relation to the possible educative effects of historical non-educational TV series and movies on students' perceptions related to history. Additionally, suggestions were made regarding to the utilization of non-educational TV series or movies in education in a positive way.

Keywords: education, history, movies, teacher candidates

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Authors: Sfiso Radebe

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The design models dealing with flawless composite structures are in abundance, where the mechanical properties of composite structures are assumed to be known a priori. However, if the worst case scenario is assumed, where material defects combined with processing anomalies in composite structures are expected, a different solution is attained. Furthermore, if the system being designed combines in series hybrid elements, individually affected by material constant variations, it implies that a different approach needs to be taken. In the body of literature, there is a compendium of research that investigates different modes of failure affecting hybrid metal-composite structures. It covers areas pertaining to the failure of the hybrid joints, structural deformation, transverse displacement, the suppression of vibration and noise. In the present study a system employing a combination of two or more hybrid power transmitting elements will be explored for the least favourable dynamic loads as well as weight minimization, subject to uncertain material properties. Elastic constants are assumed to be uncertain-but-bounded quantities varying slightly around their nominal values where the solution is determined using convex models of uncertainty. Convex analysis of the problem leads to the computation of the least favourable solution and ultimately to a robust design. This approach contrasts with a deterministic analysis where the average values of elastic constants are employed in the calculations, neglecting the variations in the material properties.

Keywords: convex modelling, hybrid, metal-composite, robust design

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: J. D. Martínez-Vargas, C. Castro-Hoyos, G. Castellanos-Dominguez

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In this work, we propose a novel approach for measuring the stationarity level of a multichannel time-series. This measure is based on a stationarity definition over time-varying spectrum, and it is aimed to quantify the relation between local stationarity (single-channel) and global dynamic behavior (multichannel dynamics). To assess the proposed approach validity, we use a well known EEG-BCI database, that was constructed for separate between motor/imagery tasks. Thus, based on the statement that imagination of movements implies an increase on the EEG dynamics, we use as discriminant features the proposed measure computed over an estimation of the non-stationary components of input time-series. As measure of separability we use a t-student test, and the obtained results evidence that such measure is able to accurately detect the brain areas projected on the scalp where motor tasks are realized.

Keywords: stationary measure, entropy, sub-space projection, multichannel dynamics

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Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

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The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

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Authors: Luis Andrey Fajardo Fajardo

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We are immersed in complex systems. The human brain, the galaxies, the snowflakes are examples of complex systems. An area of interest in Complex systems is the chaos theory. This revolutionary field of science presents different ways of study than determinism and reductionism. Here is where in junction with the Nonlinear DSP, chaos theory offer valuable techniques that establish a link between time series and complex theory in terms of complex networks, so that, the study of signals can be explored from the graph theory. Recently, some people had purposed a method to transform time series in graphs, but no one had developed a suitable implementation in Python with signals extracted from Chaotic Systems or Complex systems. That’s why the implementation in Python of an existing method to transform one dimensional chaotic signals from time domain to graph domain and some measures that may reveal information not extracted in the time domain is proposed.

Keywords: Python, complex systems, graph theory, dynamical systems

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Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Lienjang Zeite

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Over the past few years, Turkish and Indian series have been distributed worldwide to countless households and have found ardent followers across different age group. The series have captured numerous hearts. Turkish and Indian series have become not only one of the best means of entertainment and relaxation but also a platform to learn and appreciate shared emotions and social messages. The popularity of the series has created a kind of interest in representing human emotions and stories like never before. The demands for such series have totally shifted the entertainment industry at a new level. The interest and vibe created by the series have had impacts on various departments spanning from technology to the fashion industry and it has also become the bridge to connect viewers across the globe. The series have amassed avid admirers who find solace in the beautiful visual representations of human relationships whether it is of lovers, family or friendship. The influence of Turkish and Indian series in many parts of the world has created a cultural phenomenon that has taken viewers beyond cultural and language differences. From China to Latin America, Arab countries and the Caucasus region, the series have been accepted and loved by millions of viewers. It has captivated audiences ranging from grandmothers to teenagers. Issues like language barrier are easily solved by means of translation or dubbing making it easier to understand and enjoy the series. Turkey and India are two different countries with their own unique culture and traditions. Both the countries are exporters of series in large scale. The series function as a platform to reveal the plots and shed lights on characters of all kinds. Both the countries produce series that are more or less similar in nature. However, there are also certain issues that are shown in different ways and light. The paper will discuss how emotions are represented in Turkish and Indian series. It will also discuss the ways the series have impacted the art of representing emotions and characters in the digital era. The representation of culture through Turkish and Indian series will be explored as well. The paper will also locate the issue of gender roles and how relationships are forged or abandoned in the series. The issue of character formation and importance of moral factors will be discussed. It will also examine the formula and ingredients of turning human emotions and characters into a much loved series.

Keywords: characters, cultural phenomenon, emotions, Turkish and Indian series

Procedia PDF Downloads 101