Search results for: trade deficit
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1280

Search results for: trade deficit

80 Roads and Agriculture: Impacts of Connectivity in Peru

Authors: Julio Aguirre, Yohnny Campana, Elmer Guerrero, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

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A well-developed transportation network is a necessary condition for a country to derive full benefits from good trade and macroeconomic policies. Road infrastructure plays a key role in the economic development of rural areas of developing countries; where agriculture is the main economic activity. The ability to move agricultural production from the place of production to the market, and then to the place of consumption, greatly influence the economic value of farming activities, and of the resources involved in the production process, i.e., labor and land. Consequently, investment in transportation networks contributes to enhance or overcome the natural advantages or disadvantages that topography and location have imposed over the agricultural sector. This is of particular importance when dealing with countries, like Peru, with a great topographic diversity. The objective of this research is to estimate the impacts of road infrastructure on the performance of the agricultural sector. Specific variables of interest are changes in travel time, shifts of production for self-consumption to production for the market, changes in farmers income, and impacts on the diversification of the agricultural sector. In the study, a cross-section model with instrumental variables is the central methodological instrument. The data is obtained from agricultural and transport geo-referenced databases, and the instrumental variable specification utilized is based on the Kruskal algorithm. The results show that the expansion of road connectivity reduced farmers' travel time by an average of 3.1 hours and the proportion of output sold in the market increases by up to 40 percentage points. The increase in connectivity has an unexpected increase in the districts index of diversification of agricultural production. The results are robust to the inclusion of year and region fixed-effects, and to control for geography (i.e., slope and altitude), population variables, and mining activity. Other results are also very eloquent. For example, a clear positive impact can be seen in access to local markets, but this does not necessarily correlate with an increase in the production of the sector. This can be explained by the fact that agricultural development not only requires provision of roads but additional complementary infrastructure and investments intended to provide the necessary conditions so that producers can offer quality products (improved management practices, timely maintenance of irrigation infrastructure, transparent management of water rights, among other factors). Therefore, complementary public goods are needed to enhance the effects of roads on the welfare of the population, beyond enabling them to increase their access to markets.

Keywords: agriculture devolepment, market access, road connectivity, regional development

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79 Invisible Feminists: An Autonomist Marxist Perspective of Digital Labour and Resistance Within the Online Sex Industry

Authors: Josie West

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This paper focuses on the conflicts and utility of Marxist Feminist frames for sex work research, drawing on findings uncovered through in-depth interviews with online sex workers, alongside critical discourse analysis of media and political commentary. It brings the critical perspective of women into digital workerism and gig economy dialogue who, despite their significant presence within online work, have been overlooked. The autonomist Marxist concept of class composition is adopted to unpack the social, technical and political composition of this often-invisible segment of the service sector. Autonomism makes visible the perspective of workers engaged in processes of mobilization and demobilizaiton. This allows researchers to find everyday forms of resistance which occur within and outside trade unions. On the other hand, Marxist feminist arguments about invisibility politics can generate unhelpful allegories about sex work as domestic labour within the reproductive sphere. Nick Srnicek’s development of Marx’s notion of infrastructure rents helps theorize experiences of unpaid labour within online sex work. Moreover, debates about anti-work politics can cause conflict among sex workers fighting for the labour movement and those rejecting the capitalist work ethic. This illuminates’ tensions caused by white privilege and differing experiences of sex work. The monopolistic and competitive nature of sex work platforms within platform capitalism, and the vulnerable position of marginalised workers within stigmatized/criminalised markets, complicates anti-work politics further. This paper is situated within the feminist sex wars and the intensely divisive question of whether sex workers are victims of the patriarchy or symbols of feminist resistance. Camgirls are shown to engage in radical tactics of resistance against their technical composition on popular sex work platforms. They also engage in creative acts of resistance through performance art, in an attempt to draw attention to stigma and anti-criminalization politics. This sector offers a fascinating window onto grassroots class-action, alongside education about ‘whorephobia.’ A case study of resistance against Only Fans, and a small workers co-operative which emerged during the pandemic, showcases how workers engage in socialist and political acts without the aid of unions. Workers are victims of neoliberalism and simultaneous adopters of neoliberal strategies of survival. The complex dynamics within unions are explored, including tensions with grass-roots resistance, financial pressures and intersecting complications of class, gender and race.

Keywords: autonomist marxism, digital labor, feminism, neoliberalism, sex work, platform capitalism

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78 The Role of Emotions in Addressing Social and Environmental Issues in Ethical Decision Making

Authors: Kirsi Snellman, Johannes Gartner, , Katja Upadaya

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A transition towards a future where the economy serves society so that it evolves within the safe operating space of the planet calls for fundamental changes in the way managers think, feel and act, and make decisions that relate to social and environmental issues. Sustainable decision-making in organizations are often challenging tasks characterized by trade-offs between environmental, social and financial aspects, thus often bringing forth ethical concerns. Although there have been significant developments in incorporating uncertainty into environmental decision-making and measuring constructs and dimensions in ethical behavior in organizations, the majority of sustainable decision-making models are rationalist-based. Moreover, research in psychology indicates that one’s readiness to make a decision depends on the individual’s state of mind, the feasibility of the implied change, and the compatibility of strategies and tactics of implementation. Although very informative, most of this extant research is limited in the sense that it often directs attention towards the rational instead of the emotional. Hence, little is known about the role of emotions in sustainable decision making, especially in situations where decision-makers evaluate a variety of options and use their feelings as a source of information in tackling the uncertainty. To fill this lacuna, and to embrace the uncertainty and perceived risk involved in decisions that touch upon social and environmental aspects, it is important to add emotion to the evaluation when aiming to reach the one right and good ethical decision outcome. This analysis builds on recent findings in moral psychology that associate feelings and intuitions with ethical decisions and suggests that emotions can sensitize the manager to evaluate the rightness or wrongness of alternatives if ethical concerns are present in sustainable decision making. Capturing such sensitive evaluation as triggered by intuitions, we suggest that rational justification can be complemented by using emotions as a tool to tune in to what feels right in making sustainable decisions. This analysis integrates ethical decision-making theories with recent advancements in emotion theories. It determines the conditions under which emotions play a role in sustainability decisions by contributing to a personal equilibrium in which intuition and rationality are both activated and in accord. It complements the rationalist ethics view according to which nothing fogs the mind in decision making so thoroughly as emotion, and the concept of cheater’s high that links unethical behavior with positive affect. This analysis contributes to theory with a novel theoretical model that specifies when and why managers, who are more emotional, are, in fact, more likely to make ethical decisions than those managers who are more rational. It also proposes practical advice on how emotions can convert the manager’s preferences into choices that benefit both common good and one’s own good throughout the transition towards a more sustainable future.

Keywords: emotion, ethical decision making, intuition, sustainability

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77 Evaluation of Monoterpenes Induction in Ugni molinae Ecotypes Subjected to a Red Grape Caterpillar (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) Herbivory

Authors: Manuel Chacon-Fuentes, Leonardo Bardehle, Marcelo Lizama, Claudio Reyes, Andres Quiroz

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The insect-plant interaction is a complex process in which the plant is able to release chemical signaling that modifies the behavior of insects. Insect herbivory can trigger mechanisms that allow the increase in the production of secondary metabolites that allow coping against the herbivores. Monoterpenes are a kind of secondary metabolites involved in direct defense acting as repellents of herbivorous or even in indirect defense acting as attractants for insect predators. In addition, an increase of the monoterpenes concentration is an effect commonly associated with the herbivory. Hence, plants subjected to damage by herbivory increase the monoterpenes production in comparison to plants without herbivory. In this framework, co-evolutionary aspects play a fundamental role in the adaptation of the herbivorous to their host and in the counter-adaptive strategies of the plants to avoid the herbivorous. In this context, Ugni molinae 'murtilla' is a native shrub from Chile characterized by its antioxidant activity mainly related to the phenolic compounds presents in its fruits. The larval stage of the red grape caterpillar Chilesia rudis Butler (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) has been reported as an important defoliator of U. molinae. This insect is native from Chile and probably has been involved in a co-evolutionary process with murtilla. Therefore, we hypothesized that herbivory by the red grape caterpillar increases the emission of monoterpenes in Ugni molinae. Ecotypes 19-1 and 22-1 of murtilla were established and maintained at 25° C in the Laboratorio de Química Ecológica at Universidad de La Frontera. Red grape caterpillars of ⁓40 mm were collected near to Temuco (Chile) from grasses, and they were deprived of food for 24 h before performing the assays. Ten caterpillars were placed on the foliage of the ecotypes 19-1 and 22-1 and allowed to feed during 48 h. After this time, caterpillars were removed from the ecotypes and monoterpenes were collected. A glass chamber was used to enclose the ecotypes and a Porapak-Q column was used to trap the monoterpenes. After 24 h of capturing, columns were desorbed with hexane. Then, samples were injected in a gas chromatograph coupled to mass spectrometer and monoterpenes were determined according to the NIST library. All the experiments were performed in triplicate. Results showed that α-pinene, β-phellandrene, limonene, and 1,8 cineole were the main monoterpenes released by murtilla ecotypes. For the ecotype 19-1, the abundance of α-pinene was significantly higher in plants subjected to herbivory (100%) in relation to control plants (54.58%). Moreover, β-phellandrene and 1,8 cineole were observed only in control plants. For ecotype 22-1, there was no significant difference in monoterpenes abundance. In conclusion, the results suggest a trade-off of β-phellandrene and 1,8 cineole in response to herbivory damage by red grape caterpillar generating an increase in α-pinene abundance.

Keywords: Chilesia rudis, gas chromatography, monoterpenes, Ugni molinae

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76 Verification of Low-Dose Diagnostic X-Ray as a Tool for Relating Vital Internal Organ Structures to External Body Armour Coverage

Authors: Natalie A. Sterk, Bernard van Vuuren, Petrie Marais, Bongani Mthombeni

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Injuries to the internal structures of the thorax and abdomen remain a leading cause of death among soldiers. Body armour is a standard issue piece of military equipment designed to protect the vital organs against ballistic and stab threats. When configured for maximum protection, the excessive weight and size of the armour may limit soldier mobility and increase physical fatigue and discomfort. Providing soldiers with more armour than necessary may, therefore, hinder their ability to react rapidly in life-threatening situations. The capability to determine the optimal trade-off between the amount of essential anatomical coverage and hindrance on soldier performance may significantly enhance the design of armour systems. The current study aimed to develop and pilot a methodology for relating internal anatomical structures with actual armour plate coverage in real-time using low-dose diagnostic X-ray scanning. Several pilot scanning sessions were held at Lodox Systems (Pty) Ltd head-office in South Africa. Testing involved using the Lodox eXero-dr to scan dummy trunk rigs at various degrees and heights of measurement; as well as human participants, wearing correctly fitted body armour while positioned in supine, prone shooting, seated and kneeling shooting postures. The verification of sizing and metrics obtained from the Lodox eXero-dr were then confirmed through a verification board with known dimensions. Results indicated that the low-dose diagnostic X-ray has the capability to clearly identify the vital internal structures of the aortic arch, heart, and lungs in relation to the position of the external armour plates. Further testing is still required in order to fully and accurately identify the inferior liver boundary, inferior vena cava, and spleen. The scans produced in the supine, prone, and seated postures provided superior image quality over the kneeling posture. The X-ray-source and-detector distance from the object must be standardised to control for possible magnification changes and for comparison purposes. To account for this, specific scanning heights and angles were identified to allow for parallel scanning of relevant areas. The low-dose diagnostic X-ray provides a non-invasive, safe, and rapid technique for relating vital internal structures with external structures. This capability can be used for the re-evaluation of anatomical coverage required for essential protection while optimising armour design and fit for soldier performance.

Keywords: body armour, low-dose diagnostic X-ray, scanning, vital organ coverage

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75 Protecting Human Health under International Investment Law

Authors: Qiang Ren

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In the past 20 years, under the high standard of international investment protection, there have been numerous cases of investors ignoring the host country's measures to protect human health. Examples include investment disputes triggered by the Argentine government's measures related to human health, quality, and price of drinking water under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Examples also include Philip Morris v. Australia, in which case the Australian government announced the passing of the Plain Packing of Cigarettes Act to address the threat of smoking to public health in 2010. In order to take advantage of the investment treaty protection between Hong Kong and Australia, Philip Morris Asia acquired Philip Morris Australia in February 2011 and initiated investment arbitration under the treaty before the passage of the Act in July 2011. Philip Morris claimed the Act constitutes indirect expropriation and violation of fair and equitable treatment and claimed 4.16 billion US dollars compensation. Fortunately, the case ended at the admissibility decision stage and did not enter the substantive stage. Generally, even if the host country raises a human health defense, most arbitral tribunals will rule that the host country revoke the corresponding policy and make huge compensation in accordance with the clauses in the bilateral investment treaty to protect the rights of investors. The significant imbalance in the rights and obligations of host states and investors in international investment treaties undermines the ability of host states to act in pursuit of human health and social interests beyond economic interests. This squeeze on the nation's public policy space and disregard for the human health costs of investors' activities raises the need to include human health in investment rulemaking. The current international investment law system that emphasizes investor protection fails to fully reflect the requirements of the host country for the healthy development of human beings and even often brings negative impacts to human health. At a critical moment in the reform of the international investment law system, in order to achieve mutual enhancement of investment returns and human health development, human health should play a greater role in influencing and shaping international investment rules. International investment agreements should not be limited to investment protection tools but should also be part of national development strategies to serve sustainable development and human health. In order to meet the requirements of the new sustainable development goals of the United Nations, human health should be emphasized in the formulation of international investment rules, and efforts should be made to shape a new generation of international investment rules that meet the requirements of human health and sustainable development.

Keywords: human health, international investment law, Philip Morris v. Australia, investor protection

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74 Financial Analysis of the Foreign Direct in Mexico

Authors: Juan Peña Aguilar, Lilia Villasana, Rodrigo Valencia, Alberto Pastrana, Martin Vivanco, Juan Peña C

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Each year a growing number of companies entering Mexico in search of the domestic market share. These activities, including stores, telephone long distance and local raw materials and energy, and particularly the financial sector, have managed to significantly increase its weight in the flows of FDI in Mexico , however, you should consider whether these trends FDI are positive for the Mexican economy and these activities increase Mexican exports in the medium term , and its share in GDP , gross fixed capital formation and employment. In general stresses that these activities, by far, have been unable to significantly generate linkages with the rest of the economy, a process that has not favored with competitiveness policies and activities aimed at these neutral or horizontal. Since the nineties foreign direct investment (FDI) has shown a remarkable dynamism, both internationally and in Latin America and in Mexico. Only in Mexico the first recipient of FDI in importance in Latin America during 1990-1995 and was displaced by Brazil since FDI increased from levels below 1 % of GDP during the eighties to around 3 % of GDP during the nineties. Its impact has been significant not only from a macroeconomic perspective , it has also allowed the generation of a new industrial production structure and organization, parallel to a significant modernization of a segment of the economy. The case of Mexico also is particularly interesting and relevant because the destination of FDI until 1993 had focused on the purchase of state assets during privatization process. This paper aims to present FDI flows in Mexico and analyze the different business strategies that have been touched and encouraged by the FDI. On the one hand, looking briefly discuss regulatory issues and source and recipient of FDI sectors. Furthermore, the paper presents in more detail the impacts and changes that generated the FDI contribution of FDI in the Mexican economy , besides the macroeconomic context and later legislative changes that resulted in the current regulations is examined around FDI in Mexico, including aspects of the Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It is worth noting that foreign investment can not only be considered from the perspective of the receiving economic units. Instead, these flows also reflect the strategic interests of transnational corporations (TNCs) and other companies seeking access to markets and increased competitiveness of their production networks and global distribution, among other reasons. Similarly it is important to note that foreign investment in its various forms is critically dependent on historical and temporal aspects. Thus, the same functionality can vary significantly depending on the specific characteristics of both receptor units as sources of FDI, including macroeconomic, institutional, industrial organization, and social aspects, among others.

Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), competitiveness, neoliberal regime, globalization, gross domestic product (GDP), NAFTA, macroeconomic

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73 Integrating Multiple Types of Value in Natural Capital Accounting Systems: Environmental Value Functions

Authors: Pirta Palola, Richard Bailey, Lisa Wedding

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Societies and economies worldwide fundamentally depend on natural capital. Alarmingly, natural capital assets are quickly depreciating, posing an existential challenge for humanity. The development of robust natural capital accounting systems is essential for transitioning towards sustainable economic systems and ensuring sound management of capital assets. However, the accurate, equitable and comprehensive estimation of natural capital asset stocks and their accounting values still faces multiple challenges. In particular, the representation of socio-cultural values held by groups or communities has arguably been limited, as to date, the valuation of natural capital assets has primarily been based on monetary valuation methods and assumptions of individual rationality. People relate to and value the natural environment in multiple ways, and no single valuation method can provide a sufficiently comprehensive image of the range of values associated with the environment. Indeed, calls have been made to improve the representation of multiple types of value (instrumental, intrinsic, and relational) and diverse ontological and epistemological perspectives in environmental valuation. This study addresses this need by establishing a novel valuation framework, Environmental Value Functions (EVF), that allows for the integration of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems. The EVF framework is based on the estimation and application of value functions, each of which describes the relationship between the value and quantity (or quality) of an ecosystem component of interest. In this framework, values are estimated in terms of change relative to the current level instead of calculating absolute values. Furthermore, EVF was developed to also support non-marginalist conceptualizations of value: it is likely that some environmental values cannot be conceptualized in terms of marginal changes. For example, ecological resilience value may, in some cases, be best understood as a binary: it either exists (1) or is lost (0). In such cases, a logistic value function may be used as the discriminator. Uncertainty in the value function parameterization can be considered through, for example, Monte Carlo sampling analysis. The use of EVF is illustrated with two conceptual examples. For the first time, EVF offers a clear framework and concrete methodology for the representation of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems, simultaneously enabling 1) the complementary use and integration of multiple valuation methods (monetary and non-monetary); 2) the synthesis of information from diverse knowledge systems; 3) the recognition of value incommensurability; 4) marginalist and non-marginalist value analysis. Furthermore, with this advancement, the coupling of EVF and ecosystem modeling can offer novel insights to the study of spatial-temporal dynamics in natural capital asset values. For example, value time series can be produced, allowing for the prediction and analysis of volatility, long-term trends, and temporal trade-offs. This approach can provide essential information to help guide the transition to a sustainable economy.

Keywords: economics of biodiversity, environmental valuation, natural capital, value function

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72 Developing a Framework for Designing Digital Assessments for Middle-school Aged Deaf or Hard of Hearing Students in the United States

Authors: Alexis Polanco Jr, Tsai Lu Liu

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Research on digital assessment for deaf and hard of hearing (DHH) students is negligible. Part of this stems from the DHH assessment design existing at the intersection of the emergent disciplines of usability, accessibility, and child-computer interaction (CCI). While these disciplines have some prevailing guidelines —e.g. in user experience design (UXD), there is Jacob Nielsen’s 10 Usability Heuristics (Nielsen-10); for accessibility, there are the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) & the Principles of Universal Design (PUD)— this research was unable to uncover a unified set of guidelines. Given that digital assessments have lasting implications for the funding and shaping of U.S. school districts, it is vital that cross-disciplinary guidelines emerge. As a result, this research seeks to provide a framework by which these disciplines can share knowledge. The framework entails a process of asking subject-matter experts (SMEs) and design & development professionals to self-describe their fields of expertise, how their work might serve DHH students, and to expose any incongruence between their ideal process and what is permissible at their workplace. This research used two rounds of mixed methods. The first round consisted of structured interviews with SMEs in usability, accessibility, CCI, and DHH education. These practitioners were not designers by trade but were revealed to use designerly work processes. In addition to asking these SMEs about their field of expertise, work process, etc., these SMEs were asked to comment about whether they believed Nielsen-10 and/or PUD were sufficient for designing products for middle-school DHH students. This first round of interviews revealed that Nielsen-10 and PUD were, at best, a starting point for creating middle-school DHH design guidelines or, at worst insufficient. The second round of interviews followed a semi-structured interview methodology. The SMEs who were interviewed in the first round were asked open-ended follow-up questions about their semantic understanding of guidelines— going from the most general sense down to the level of design guidelines for DHH middle school students. Designers and developers who were never interviewed previously were asked the same questions that the SMEs had been asked across both rounds of interviews. In terms of the research goals: it was confirmed that the design of digital assessments for DHH students is inherently cross-disciplinary. Unexpectedly, 1) guidelines did not emerge from the interviews conducted in this study, and 2) the principles of Nielsen-10 and PUD were deemed to be less relevant than expected. Given the prevalence of Nielsen-10 in UXD curricula across academia and certificate programs, this poses a risk to the efficacy of DHH assessments designed by UX designers. Furthermore, the following findings emerged: A) deep collaboration between the disciplines of usability, accessibility, and CCI is low to non-existent; B) there are no universally agreed-upon guidelines for designing digital assessments for DHH middle school students; C) these disciplines are structured academically and professionally in such a way that practitioners may not know to reach out to other disciplines. For example, accessibility teams at large organizations do not have designers and accessibility specialists on the same team.

Keywords: deaf, hard of hearing, design, guidelines, education, assessment

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71 The Therapeutic Potential, Functions, and Use of Ibogaine

Authors: João Pedro Zanella, Michel J. O. Fagundes

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Introduction: Drug use has been practised by humans universally for millennia, not excluding any population from these habits, however, the rampant drug use is a global concern due to the harm that affects the health of the world population. In this sense, it is observed the reduction of lasting and effective public policies for the resolution, increasing the demand for treatment services. With this comes ibogaine, an alkaloid derived from the root of an African bush (Tabernanthe Iboga), found mostly in Gabon and used widely by the native Bwiti population in rituals, and also other social groups, which demonstrates efficacy against chemical dependence, psychic and emotional disorders, opioid withdrawal was first confirmed by a study in rats done by Michailo Dzoljic and associates in 1988 and again in 1994. Methods: A brief description of the plant, its neurohumoral potential and the effects caused by ingested doses, in a simplified and objective way, will be discussed in the course of this abstract. Results: Ibogaine is not registered or passed by Anvisa, regarding safety and efficacy, and cannot be sold in Brazil. Its illegal trade reaches R$ 5 thousand for a session with the proceeds of the root, and its effect can last up to 72 hours, attributing Iboga's psychoactive effects to the alkaloid called ibogaine. The shrub where Ibogaine is located has pink and yellow flowers, and its fruit produced does not have psychoactive substances, but its root bark contains 6 to 7% indolic alkaloids. Besides extraction from the iboga plant, ibogaine hydrochloride can be semisynthesized from voacangine, another plant alkaloid that acts as a precursor. Its potential has the ability to perform multiple interactions with the neurotransmitter system, which are closely associated with addiction, including nicotinic, opioid and serotoninergic systems. Studies carried out by Edwards found that the doses administered of Iboga should be determined by a health professional when its purpose is to treat individuals for dependence on other drugs. Its use in small doses may cause an increase in sensibility, impaired vision and motor alterations; in moderate quantities, hallucinations, motor and neurological alterations and impaired vision; in high quantities it may cause hallucinations with personal events at a deeper level lasting up to 24 hours or more, followed by motor and visual alterations. Conclusion: The product extracted from the Iboga plant is of great importance in controlling addiction, reducing the need for the use of narcotics by patients, thus gaining a space of extreme importance in the treatment of users of psychoactive substances. It is remarkable the progress of the latest’s research about the usefulness of Ibogaine, and its benefits for certain treatments, even with the restriction of its sale in Brazil. Besides this, Ibogaine has an additional benefit of helping the patient to gain self-control over their destructive behaviours.

Keywords: alkaloids, dependence, Gabon, ibogaine

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70 The Rise of Blue Water Navy and its Implication for the Region

Authors: Riddhi Chopra

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Alfred Thayer Mahan described the sea as a ‘great common,’ which would serve as a medium for communication, trade, and transport. The seas of Asia are witnessing an intriguing historical anomaly – rise of an indigenous maritime power against the backdrop of US domination over the region. As China transforms from an inward leaning economy to an outward-leaning economy, it has become increasingly dependent on the global sea; as a result, we witness an evolution in its maritime strategy from near seas defense to far seas deployment strategies. It is not only patrolling the international waters but has also built a network of civilian and military infrastructure across the disputed oceanic expanse. The paper analyses the reorientation of China from a naval power to a blue water navy in an era of extensive globalisation. The actions of the Chinese have created a zone of high alert amongst its neighbors such as Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and North Korea. These nations are trying to align themselves so as to counter China’s growing brinkmanship, but China has been pursuing claims through a carefully calibrated strategy in the region shunning any coercive measures taken by other forces. If China continues to expand its maritime boundaries, its neighbors – all smaller and weaker Asian nations would be limited to a narrow band of the sea along its coastlines. Hence it is essential for the US to intervene and support its allies to offset Chinese supremacy. The paper intends to provide a profound analysis over the disputes in South China Sea and East China Sea focusing on Philippines and Japan respectively. Moreover, the paper attempts to give an account of US involvement in the region and its alignment with its South Asian allies. The geographic dynamics is said the breed a national coalition dominating the strategic ambitions of China as well as the weak littoral states. China has conducted behind the scenes diplomacy trying to persuade its neighbors to support its position on the territorial disputes. These efforts have been successful in creating fault lines in ASEAN thereby undermining regional integrity to reach a consensus on the issue. Chinese diplomatic efforts have also forced the US to revisit its foreign policy and engage with players like Cambodia and Laos. The current scenario in the SCS points to a strong Chinese hold trying to outspace all others with no regards to International law. Chinese activities are in contrast with US principles like Freedom of Navigation thereby signaling US to take bold actions to prevent Chinese hegemony in the region. The paper ultimately seeks to explore the changing power dynamics among various claimants where a rival superpower like US can pursue the traditional policy of alliance formation play a decisive role in changing the status quo in the arena, consequently determining the future trajectory.

Keywords: China, East China Sea, South China Sea, USA

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69 Improving Ghana's Oil Industry Through Integrated Operations

Authors: Esther Simpson, Evans Addo Tetteh

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One of the most important sectors in Ghana’s economy is the oil and gas sector. Effective supply chain management is required to ensure the timely delivery of these products to the end users, given the rise in nationwide demand for petroleum products. Contrarily, freight forwarding plays a crucial role in facilitating intra- and intra-country trade, particularly the movement of oil goods. Nevertheless, there has not been enough scientific study done on how marketing, supply chain management, and freight forwarding are integrated in the oil business. By highlighting possible areas for development in the supply chain management of petroleum products, this article seeks to close this gap. The study was predominantly qualitative and featured semi-structured interviews with influential figures in the oil and gas sector, such as marketers, distributors, freight forwarders, and regulatory organizations. The purpose of the interviews was to determine the difficulties and possibilities for enhancing the management of the petroleum products supply chain. Thematic analysis was used to examine the data obtained in order to find patterns and themes that arose. The findings from the study revealed that the oil sector faced a number of issues in terms of supply chain management. Inadequate infrastructure, insufficient storage facilities, a lack of cooperation among parties, and an inadequate regulatory framework were among the obstacles. Furthermore, the study indicated significant prospects for enhancing petroleum product supply chain management, such as the integration of more advanced digital technologies, the formation of strategic alliances, and the adoption of sustainable practices in petroleum product supply chain management. The study's conclusions have far-reaching ramifications for the oil and gas sector, freight forwarding, and Ghana’s economy as a whole. Marketing, supply chain management, and freight forwarding has high prospects from being integrated to improve the efficiency of the petroleum product supply chain, resulting in considerable cost savings for the industry. Furthermore, the use of sustainable practices will improve the industry's sustainability and lessen the environmental effect of the petroleum product supply chain. Based on the findings, we propose that stakeholders in Ghana’s oil and gas sector work together and collaborate to enhance petroleum supply chain management. This collaboration should include the use of digital technologies, the formation of strategic alliances, and the implementation of sustainable practices. Moreover, we urge that governments establish suitable rules to guarantee the efficient and sustainable management of petroleum product supply chains. In conclusion, the integration and combination of marketing, supply chain management, and freight forwarding in the oil business gives a tremendous opportunity for enhancing petroleum product supply chain management. The study's conclusions have far-reaching ramifications for the sector, freight forwarding, and the economy as a whole. Using sustainable practices, integrating digital technology, and forming strategic alliances will improve the efficiency and sustainability of the petroleum product supply chain. We expect that this conference paper will encourage more study and collaboration among oil and gas sector stakeholders to improve petroleum supply chain management.

Keywords: collaboration, logistics, sustainability, supply chain management

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68 The Effect of the Performance Evolution System on the Productivity of Administrating and a Case Study

Authors: Ertuğrul Ferhat Yilmaz, Ali Riza Perçin

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In the business enterprises implemented modern business enterprise principles, the most important issues are increasing the performance of workers and getting maximum income. Through the twentieth century, rapid development of the sectors of data processing and communication and because of the free trade politics arising of multilateral business enterprises have canceled the economical borders and changed the local rivalry into the spherical rivalry. In this rivalry conditions, the business enterprises have to work active and productive in order to continue their existences. The employees worked at business enterprises have formed the most important factor of product. Therefore, the business enterprises inferring the importance of the human factors in order to increase the profit have used “the performance evolution system” to increase the success and development of the employees. The evolution of the performance is aimed to increase the manpower productive by using the employees in an active way. Furthermore, this system assists the wage politics implemented in business enterprise, determining the strategically plans in business enterprises through the short and long terms, being promoted and determining the educational needs of employees, making decisions as dismissing and work rotation. It requires a great deal of effort to catch the pace of change in the working realm and to keep up ourselves up-to-date. To get the quality in people,to have an effect in workplace depends largely on the knowledge and competence of managers and prospective managers. Therefore,managers need to use the performance evaluation systems in order to base their managerial decisions on sound data. This study aims at finding whether the organizations effectively use performance evaluation systms,how much importance is put on this issue and how much the results of the evaulations have an effect on employees. Whether the organizations have the advantage of competition and can keep on their activities depend to a large extent on how they effectively and efficiently use their employees.Therefore,it is of vital importance to evaluate employees' performance and to make them better according to the results of that evaluation. The performance evaluation system which evaluates the employees according to the criteria related to that organization has become one of the most important topics for management. By means of those important ends mentioned above,performance evaluation system seems to be a tool that can be used to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of organization. Because of its contribution to organizational success, thinking performance evaluation on the axis of efficiency shows the importance of this study on a different angle. In this study, we have explained performance evaluation system ,efficiency and the relation between those two concepts. We have also analyzed the results of questionnaires conducted on the textile workers in Edirne city.We have got positive answers from the questions about the effects of performance evaluation on efficiency.After factor analysis ,the efficiency and motivation which are determined as factors of performance evaluation system have the biggest variance (%19.703) in our sample. Thus, this study shows that objective performance evaluation increases the efficiency and motivation of employees.

Keywords: performance, performance evolution system, productivity, Edirne region

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67 SME Internationalisation and Its Financing: An Exploratory Study That Analyses Government Support and Funding Mechanisms for Irish and Scottish International SMEs

Authors: L. Spencer, S. O’ Donohoe

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Much of the research to date on internationalisation relates to large firms with much less known about how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) engage in internationalisation. Given the crucial role of SMEs in contributing to economic growth, there is now an emphasis on the need for SMEs internationalise. Yet little is known about how SMEs undertake and finance such expansion and whether or not internationalisation actually hinders or helps them in securing finance. The purpose of this research is to explore the internationalisation process for SMEs, the sources of funding used in financing this expansion and support received from the state agencies in assisting their overseas expansion. A conceptual framework has been devised which marries the two strands of literature together (internationalisation and financing the firm). The exploratory nature of this research dictates that the most appropriate methodology was to use semi-structured interviews with SME owners; bank representatives and support agencies. In essence, a triangulated approach to the research problem facilitates assessment of the perceptions and experiences from firms, the state and the financial institutions. Our sample is drawn from SMEs operating in Ireland and Scotland, two small but very open economies where SMEs are the dominant form of organisation. The sample includes a range of industry sectors. Key findings to date suggest some SMEs are born global; others are born again global whilst a significant cohort can be classed as traditional internationalisers. Unsurprisingly there is a strong industry effect with firms in the high tech sector more likely to be faster internationalisers in contrast to those in the traditional manufacturing sectors. Owner manager’s own funds are deemed key to financing initial internationalisation lending support for the financial growth life cycle model albeit more important for the faster internationalisers in contrast to the slower cohort who are more likely to deploy external sources especially bank finance. Retained earnings remain the predominant source of on-going financing for internationalising firms but trade credit is often used and invoice discounting is utilised quite frequently. In terms of lending, asset based lending backed by personal guarantees appears paramount for securing bank finance. Whilst the lack of diversified sources of funding for internationalising SMEs was found in both jurisdictions there appears no evidence to suggest that internationalisation impedes firms in securing finance. Finally state supports were cited as important to the internationalisation process, in particular those provided by Enterprise Ireland were deemed very valuable. Considering the paucity of studies to date on SME internationalisation and in particular the funding mechanisms deployed by them; this study seeks to contribute to the body of knowledge in both the international business and finance disciplines.

Keywords: funding, government support, international pathways, modes of entry

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66 Altmetrics of South African Journals: Implications for Scholarly Impact of South African Research on Social Media

Authors: Omwoyo Bosire Onyancha

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The Journal Citation Reports (JCR) of the Thomson Reuters has, for decades, provided the data for bibliometrically assessing the impact of journals. In their criticism of the journal impact factor (JIF), a number of scholars such as Priem, Taraborelli, Groth and Neylon (2010) observe that the “JIF is often incorrectly used to assess the impact of individual articles. It is troubling that the exact details of the JIF are a trade secret, and that significant gaming is relatively easy”. The emergence of alternative metrics (Altmetrics) has introduced another dimension of re-assessing how the impact of journals (and other units such as articles and even individual researchers) can be measured. Altmetrics is premised upon the fact that research is increasingly being disseminated through social network sites such as ResearchGate, Mendeley, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and ImpactStory, among others. This paper adopts informetrics (including altmetrics) techniques to report on the findings of a study conducted to investigate and compare the social media impact of 274 South Africa Post Secondary Education (SAPSE)-accredited journals, which are recognized and accredited by the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) of South Africa (SA). We used multiple sources to extract data for the study, namely Altmetric.com and the Thomson Reuters’ Journal Citation Reports. Data was analyzed in order to determine South African journals’ presence and impact on social media as well as contrast the social media impact with Thomson Reuters’ citation impact. The Spearman correlation test was performed to compare the journals’ social media impact and JCR citation impact. Preliminary findings reveal that a total of 6360 articles published in 96 South African journals have received some attention in social media; the most commonly used social media platform was Twitter, followed by Mendeley, Facebook, News outlets, and CiteULike; there were 29 SA journals covered in the JCR in 2008 and this number has grown to 53 journals in 2014; the journals indexed in the Thomson Reuters performed much better, in terms of their altmetrics, than those journals that are not indexed in Thomson Reuters databases; nevertheless, there was high correlation among journals that featured in both datasets; the journals with the highest scores in Altmetric.com included the South African Medical Journal, African Journal of Marine Science, and Transactions of the Royal Society of South Africa while the journals with high impact factors in JCR were South African Medical Journal, Onderstepoort: Journal of Veterinary Research, and Sahara: Journal of Social Aspects of HIV-AIDS; and that Twitter has emerged as a strong avenue of sharing and communicating research published in the South African journals. Implications of the results of the study for the dissemination of research conducted in South Africa are offered. Discussions based on the research findings as well as conclusions and recommendations are offered in the full text paper.

Keywords: altmetrics, citation impact, journal citation reports, journal impact factor, journals, research, scholarly publishing, social media impact, South Africa

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65 Automated Evaluation Approach for Time-Dependent Question Answering Pairs on Web Crawler Based Question Answering System

Authors: Shraddha Chaudhary, Raksha Agarwal, Niladri Chatterjee

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This work demonstrates a web crawler-based generalized end-to-end open domain Question Answering (QA) system. An efficient QA system requires a significant amount of domain knowledge to answer any question with the aim to find an exact and correct answer in the form of a number, a noun, a short phrase, or a brief piece of text for the user's questions. Analysis of the question, searching the relevant document, and choosing an answer are three important steps in a QA system. This work uses a web scraper (Beautiful Soup) to extract K-documents from the web. The value of K can be calibrated on the basis of a trade-off between time and accuracy. This is followed by a passage ranking process using the MS-Marco dataset trained on 500K queries to extract the most relevant text passage, to shorten the lengthy documents. Further, a QA system is used to extract the answers from the shortened documents based on the query and return the top 3 answers. For evaluation of such systems, accuracy is judged by the exact match between predicted answers and gold answers. But automatic evaluation methods fail due to the linguistic ambiguities inherent in the questions. Moreover, reference answers are often not exhaustive or are out of date. Hence correct answers predicted by the system are often judged incorrect according to the automated metrics. One such scenario arises from the original Google Natural Question (GNQ) dataset which was collected and made available in the year 2016. Use of any such dataset proves to be inefficient with respect to any questions that have time-varying answers. For illustration, if the query is where will be the next Olympics? Gold Answer for the above query as given in the GNQ dataset is “Tokyo”. Since the dataset was collected in the year 2016, and the next Olympics after 2016 were in 2020 that was in Tokyo which is absolutely correct. But if the same question is asked in 2022 then the answer is “Paris, 2024”. Consequently, any evaluation based on the GNQ dataset will be incorrect. Such erroneous predictions are usually given to human evaluators for further validation which is quite expensive and time-consuming. To address this erroneous evaluation, the present work proposes an automated approach for evaluating time-dependent question-answer pairs. In particular, it proposes a metric using the current timestamp along with top-n predicted answers from a given QA system. To test the proposed approach GNQ dataset has been used and the system achieved an accuracy of 78% for a test dataset comprising 100 QA pairs. This test data was automatically extracted using an analysis-based approach from 10K QA pairs of the GNQ dataset. The results obtained are encouraging. The proposed technique appears to have the possibility of developing into a useful scheme for gathering precise, reliable, and specific information in a real-time and efficient manner. Our subsequent experiments will be guided towards establishing the efficacy of the above system for a larger set of time-dependent QA pairs.

Keywords: web-based information retrieval, open domain question answering system, time-varying QA, QA evaluation

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64 Study of Potato Cyst Nematodes (Globodera Rostochiensis, Globodera pallida) in Georgia

Authors: Ekatereine Abashidze, Nino Nazarashvili, Dali Gaganidze, Oleg Gorgadze, Mariam Aznarashvili, Eter Gvritishvili

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Potato is one of the leading agricultural crops in Georgia. Georgia produces early and late potato varieties in almost all regions. Potato production is equal to 25,000 ha and its average yield is 20-25 t/ha. Among the plant pests that limit potato production and quality, the potato cyst nematodes (Globodera pallida (Stone) Behrens and Globodera rostochiensis (Wollenveber) Behrens) are harmful around the world. PCN is among the most difficult plant pests to control. Cysts protected by a durable wall can survive for over 30 years . Control of PCN (G. pallida and G. rostochiensis) is regulated by Council Directive 2007/33/EE C. There was no legislative regulation of these pests in Georgia before 2016. By Resolution #302 from July 1, 2016, developed within the action plan of the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area) the Government of Georgia established control over potato cyst nematodes. The Agreement about the legal acts approximation to EU legislation concerns the approval of rules of PCN control and research of these pests. Taking into consideration the above mentioned, it is necessary to study PCN (G. pallida and G. rostochiensis) in the potato-growing areas of Georgia. The aim of this research is to conduct survey of potato cyst nematodes (Globodera rostochiensis and G. pallida) in two geographically distinct regions of Georgia - Samtskhe - Javakheti and Svanetii and to identify the species G. Rostochiensis and G. Pallida by the morphological - morphometric and molecular methods. Soil samples were taken in each village, in a zig-zag pattern on the potato fields of the private sector, using the Metlitsky method. Samples were taken also from infested potato plant roots. To extract nematode cysts from soil samples Fanwick can be used according to standard methods by EPPO. Cysts were measured under a stereoscopic microscope (Leica M50). Identification of the nematod species was carried out according to morphological and morphometric characteristics of the cysts and larvae using appropriate protocols EPPO. For molecular identification, a multiplex PCR test was performed by the universal ITS5 and cyst nematodes’ (G. pallida, G. rostochiensis) specific primers. To identify the species of potato cyst nematodes (PCN) in two regions (Samtskhe-Javakheti and Svaneti) were taken 200 samples, among them: 80 samples in Samtskhe-Javakheti region and 120 in Svaneti region. Cysts of Globiodera spp. were revealed in 50 samples obtained from Samtskhe-Javakheti and 80 samples from Svaneti regions. Morphological, morphometric and molecular analysis of two forms of PCN found in investigated regions of Georgia shows that one form of PCN belongs to G. rostoshiensi; the second form is the different species of Globodera sp.t is the subject of future research. Despite the different geographic locations, larvae and cysts of G. rostoshiensi were found in both regions. But cysts and larvae of G. pallida were not reported. Acknowledgement: The research has been supported by the Shota Rustaveli National Scientific Foundation of Georgia: Project # FR17_235.

Keywords: cyst nematode, globodera rostochiensis, globodera pallida, morphologic-morphometric measurement

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63 The Theotokos of the Messina Missal as a Byzantine Icon in Norman Sicily: A Study on Patronage and Devotion

Authors: Jesus Rodriguez Viejo

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The aim of this paper is to study cross-cultural interactions between the West and Byzantium, in the fields of art and religion, by analyzing the decoration of one luxury manuscript. The Spanish National Library is home to one of the most extraordinary examples of illuminated manuscript production of Norman Sicily – the Messina Missal. Dating from the late twelfth century, this liturgical book was the result of the intense activity of artistic patronage of an Englishman, Richard Palmer. Appointed bishop of the Sicilian city in the second half of the century, Palmer set a painting workshop attached to his cathedral. The illuminated manuscripts produced there combine a clear Byzantine iconographic language with a myriad of elements imported from France, such as a large number of decorated initials. The most remarkable depiction contained in the Missal is that of the Theotokos (fol. 80r). Its appearance immediately recalls portative Byzantine icons of the Mother of God in South Italy and Byzantium and implies the intervention of an artist familiar with icon painting. The richness of this image is a clear proof of the prestige that Byzantine art enjoyed in the island after the Norman takeover. The production of the school of Messina under Richard Palmer could be considered a counterpart in the field of manuscript illumination of the court art of the Sicilian kings in Palermo and the impressive commissions for the cathedrals of Monreale and Cefalù. However, the ethnic composition of Palmer’s workshop has never been analyzed and therefore, we intend to shed light on the permanent presence of Greek-speaking artists in Norman Messina. The east of the island was the last stronghold of the Greeks and soon after the Norman conquest, the previous exchanges between the cities of this territory and Byzantium restarted again, mainly by way of trade. Palmer was not a Norman statesman, but a churchman and his love for religion and culture prevailed over the wars and struggles for power of the Sicilian kingdom in the central Mediterranean. On the other hand, the representation of the Theotokos can prove that Eastern devotional approaches to images were still common in the east of the island more than a century after the collapse of Byzantine rule. Local Norman lords repeatedly founded churches devoted to Greek saints and medieval Greek-speaking authors were widely copied in Sicilian scriptoria. The Madrid Missal and its Theotokos are doubtless the product of Western initiative but in a land culturally dominated by Byzantium. Westerners, such as Palmer and his circle, could have been immersed in this Hellenophile culture and therefore, naturally predisposed to perform prayers and rituals, in both public and private contexts, linked to ideas and practices of Greek origin, such as the concept of icon.

Keywords: history of art, byzantine art, manuscripts, norman sicily, messina, patronage, devotion, iconography

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62 R&D Diffusion and Productivity in a Globalized World: Country Capabilities in an MRIO Framework

Authors: S. Jimenez, R.Duarte, J.Sanchez-Choliz, I. Villanua

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There is a certain consensus in economic literature about the factors that have influenced in historical differences in growth rates observed between developed and developing countries. However, it is less clear what elements have marked different paths of growth in developed economies in recent decades. R&D has always been seen as one of the major sources of technological progress, and productivity growth, which is directly influenced by technological developments. Following recent literature, we can say that ‘innovation pushes the technological frontier forward’ as well as encourage future innovation through the creation of externalities. In other words, productivity benefits from innovation are not fully appropriated by innovators, but it also spread through the rest of the economies encouraging absorptive capacities, what have become especially important in a context of increasing fragmentation of production This paper aims to contribute to this literature in two ways, first, exploring alternative indexes of R&D flows embodied in inter-country, inter-sectorial flows of good and services (as approximation to technology spillovers) capturing structural and technological characteristic of countries and, second, analyzing the impact of direct and embodied R&D on the evolution of labor productivity at the country/sector level in recent decades. The traditional way of calculation through a multiregional input-output framework assumes that all countries have the same capabilities to absorb technology, but it is not, each one has different structural features and, this implies, different capabilities as part of literature, claim. In order to capture these differences, we propose to use a weight based on specialization structure indexes; one related with the specialization of countries in high-tech sectors and the other one based on a dispersion index. We propose these two measures because, as far as we understood, country capabilities can be captured through different ways; countries specialization in knowledge-intensive sectors, such as Chemicals or Electrical Equipment, or an intermediate technology effort across different sectors. Results suggest the increasing importance of country capabilities while increasing the trade openness. Besides, if we focus in the country rankings, we can observe that with high-tech weighted R&D embodied countries as China, Taiwan and Germany arose the top five despite not having the highest intensities of R&D expenditure, showing the importance of country capabilities. Additionally, through a fixed effects panel data model we show that, in fact, R&D embodied is important to explain labor productivity increases, in fact, even more that direct R&D investments. This is reflecting that globalization is more important than has been said until now. However, it is true that almost all analysis done in relation with that consider the effect of t-1 direct R&D intensity over economic growth. Nevertheless, from our point of view R&D evolve as a delayed flow and it is necessary some time to be able to see its effects on the economy, as some authors have already claimed. Our estimations tend to corroborate this hypothesis obtaining a gap between 4-5 years.

Keywords: economic growth, embodied, input-output, technology

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61 Pre-Industrial Local Architecture According to Natural Properties

Authors: Selin Küçük

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Pre-industrial architecture is integration of natural and subsequent properties by intelligence and experience. Since various settlements relatively industrialized or non-industrialized at any time, ‘pre-industrial’ term does not refer to a definite time. Natural properties, which are existent conditions and materials in natural local environment, are climate, geomorphology and local materials. Subsequent properties, which are all anthropological comparatives, are culture of societies, requirements of people and construction techniques that people use. Yet, after industrialization, technology took technique’s place, cultural effects are manipulated, requirements are changed and local/natural properties are almost disappeared in architecture. Technology is universal, global and expands simply; conversely technique is time and experience dependent and should has a considerable cultural background. This research is about construction techniques according to natural properties of a region and classification of these techniques. Understanding local architecture is only possible by searching its background which is hard to reach. There are always changes in positive and negative in architectural techniques through the time. Archaeological layers of a region sometimes give more accurate information about transformation of architecture. However, natural properties of any region are the most helpful elements to perceive construction techniques. Many international sources from different cultures are interested in local architecture by mentioning natural properties separately. Unfortunately, there is no literature deals with this subject as far as systematically in the correct way. This research aims to improve a clear perspective of local architecture existence by categorizing archetypes according to natural properties. The ultimate goal of this research is generating a clear classification of local architecture independent from subsequent (anthropological) properties over the world such like a handbook. Since local architecture is the most sustainable architecture with refer to its economic, ecologic and sociological properties, there should be an excessive information about construction techniques to be learned from. Constructing the same buildings in all over the world is one of the main criticism of modern architectural system. While this critics going on, the same buildings without identity increase incrementally. In post-industrial term, technology widely took technique’s place, yet cultural effects are manipulated, requirements are changed and natural local properties are almost disappeared in architecture. These study does not offer architects to use local techniques, but it indicates the progress of pre-industrial architectural evolution which is healthier, cheaper and natural. Immigration from rural areas to developing/developed cities should be prohibited, thus culture and construction techniques can be preserved. Since big cities have psychological, sensational and sociological impact on people, rural settlers can be convinced to not to immigrate by providing new buildings designed according to natural properties and maintaining their settlements. Improving rural conditions would remove the economical and sociological gulf between cities and rural. What result desired to arrived in, is if there is no deformation (adaptation process of another traditional buildings because of immigration) or assimilation in a climatic region, there should be very similar solutions in the same climatic regions of the world even if there is no relationship (trade, communication etc.) among them.

Keywords: climate zones, geomorphology, local architecture, local materials

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60 Predicting Loss of Containment in Surface Pipeline using Computational Fluid Dynamics and Supervised Machine Learning Model to Improve Process Safety in Oil and Gas Operations

Authors: Muhammmad Riandhy Anindika Yudhy, Harry Patria, Ramadhani Santoso

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Loss of containment is the primary hazard that process safety management is concerned within the oil and gas industry. Escalation to more serious consequences all begins with the loss of containment, starting with oil and gas release from leakage or spillage from primary containment resulting in pool fire, jet fire and even explosion when reacted with various ignition sources in the operations. Therefore, the heart of process safety management is avoiding loss of containment and mitigating its impact through the implementation of safeguards. The most effective safeguard for the case is an early detection system to alert Operations to take action prior to a potential case of loss of containment. The detection system value increases when applied to a long surface pipeline that is naturally difficult to monitor at all times and is exposed to multiple causes of loss of containment, from natural corrosion to illegal tapping. Based on prior researches and studies, detecting loss of containment accurately in the surface pipeline is difficult. The trade-off between cost-effectiveness and high accuracy has been the main issue when selecting the traditional detection method. The current best-performing method, Real-Time Transient Model (RTTM), requires analysis of closely positioned pressure, flow and temperature (PVT) points in the pipeline to be accurate. Having multiple adjacent PVT sensors along the pipeline is expensive, hence generally not a viable alternative from an economic standpoint.A conceptual approach to combine mathematical modeling using computational fluid dynamics and a supervised machine learning model has shown promising results to predict leakage in the pipeline. Mathematical modeling is used to generate simulation data where this data is used to train the leak detection and localization models. Mathematical models and simulation software have also been shown to provide comparable results with experimental data with very high levels of accuracy. While the supervised machine learning model requires a large training dataset for the development of accurate models, mathematical modeling has been shown to be able to generate the required datasets to justify the application of data analytics for the development of model-based leak detection systems for petroleum pipelines. This paper presents a review of key leak detection strategies for oil and gas pipelines, with a specific focus on crude oil applications, and presents the opportunities for the use of data analytics tools and mathematical modeling for the development of robust real-time leak detection and localization system for surface pipelines. A case study is also presented.

Keywords: pipeline, leakage, detection, AI

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59 Preparedness is Overrated: Community Responses to Floods in a Context of (Perceived) Low Probability

Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

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58 System-Driven Design Process for Integrated Multifunctional Movable Concepts

Authors: Oliver Bertram, Leonel Akoto Chama

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In today's civil transport aircraft, the design of flight control systems is based on the experience gained from previous aircraft configurations with a clear distinction between primary and secondary flight control functions for controlling the aircraft altitude and trajectory. Significant system improvements are now seen particularly in multifunctional moveable concepts where the flight control functions are no longer considered separate but integral. This allows new functions to be implemented in order to improve the overall aircraft performance. However, the classical design process of flight controls is sequential and insufficiently interdisciplinary. In particular, the systems discipline is involved only rudimentarily in the early phase. In many cases, the task of systems design is limited to meeting the requirements of the upstream disciplines, which may lead to integration problems later. For this reason, approaching design with an incremental development is required to reduce the risk of a complete redesign. Although the potential and the path to multifunctional moveable concepts are shown, the complete re-engineering of aircraft concepts with less classic moveable concepts is associated with a considerable risk for the design due to the lack of design methods. This represents an obstacle to major leaps in technology. This gap in state of the art is even further increased if, in the future, unconventional aircraft configurations shall be considered, where no reference data or architectures are available. This means that the use of the above-mentioned experience-based approach used for conventional configurations is limited and not applicable to the next generation of aircraft. In particular, there is a need for methods and tools for a rapid trade-off between new multifunctional flight control systems architectures. To close this gap in the state of the art, an integrated system-driven design process for multifunctional flight control systems of non-classical aircraft configurations will be presented. The overall goal of the design process is to find optimal solutions for single or combined target criteria in a fast process from the very large solution space for the flight control system. In contrast to the state of the art, all disciplines are involved for a holistic design in an integrated rather than a sequential process. To emphasize the systems discipline, this paper focuses on the methodology for designing moveable actuation systems in the context of this integrated design process of multifunctional moveables. The methodology includes different approaches for creating system architectures, component design methods as well as the necessary process outputs to evaluate the systems. An application example of a reference configuration is used to demonstrate the process and validate the results. For this, new unconventional hydraulic and electrical flight control system architectures are calculated which result from the higher requirements for multifunctional moveable concept. In addition to typical key performance indicators such as mass and required power requirements, the results regarding the feasibility and wing integration aspects of the system components are examined and discussed here. This is intended to show how the systems design can influence and drive the wing and overall aircraft design.

Keywords: actuation systems, flight control surfaces, multi-functional movables, wing design process

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57 Ground Motion Modeling Using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator

Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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56 Literacy Practices in Immigrant Detention Centers: A Conceptual Exploration of Access, Resistance, and Connection

Authors: Mikel W. Cole, Stephanie M. Madison, Adam Henze

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Since 2004, the U.S. immigrant detention system has imprisoned more than five million people. President John F. Kennedy famously dubbed this country a “Nation of Immigrants.” Like many of the nation’s imagined ideals, the historical record finds its practices have never lived up to the tenets championed as defining qualities.The United Nations High Commission on Refugees argues the educational needs of people in carceral spaces, especially those in immigrant detention centers, are urgent and supported by human rights guarantees. However, there is a genuine dearth of literacy research in immigrant detention centers, compounded by a general lack of access to these spaces. Denying access to literacy education in detention centers is one way the history of xenophobic immigration policy persists. In this conceptual exploration, first-hand accounts from detained individuals, their families, and the organizations that work with them have been shared with the authors. In this paper, the authors draw on experiences, reflections, and observations from serving as volunteers to develop a conceptual framework for the ways in which literacy practices are enacted in detention centers. Literacy is an essential tool for accessing those detained in immigrant detention centers and a critical tool for those being detained to access legal and other services. One of the most striking things about the detention center is how to behave; gaining access for a visit is neither intuitive nor straightforward. The men experiencing detention are also at a disadvantage. The lack of access to their own documents is a profound barrier to men navigating the complex immigration process. Literacy is much more than a skill for gathering knowledge or accessing carceral spaces; literacy is fundamentally a source of personal empowerment. Frequently men find a way to reclaim their sense of dignity through work on their own terms by exchanging their literacy services for products or credits at the commissary. They write cards and letters for fellow detainees, read mail, and manage the exchange of information between the men and their families. In return, the men who have jobs trade items from the commissary or transfer money to the accounts of the men doing the reading, writing, and drawing. Literacy serves as a form of resistance by providing an outlet for productive work. At its core, literacy is the exchange of ideas between an author and a reader and is a primary source of human connection for individuals in carceral spaces. Father’s Day and Christmas are particularly difficult at detention centers. Men weep when speaking about their children and the overwhelming hopelessness they feel by being separated from them. Yet card-writing campaigns have provided these men with words of encouragement as thousands of hand-written cards make their way to the detention center. There are undoubtedly more literacies being practiced in the immigrant detention center where we work and at other detention centers across the country, and these categories are early conceptions with which we are still wrestling.

Keywords: detention centers, education, immigration, literacy

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55 Local Procurement in Ghana's Hotel Industry: A Study of the Driving Forces, Perceptions and Procurement Patterns

Authors: Adu-Ampomah Yaw Junior

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Local procurement has become one of the latest trends in the discourse of sustainable tourism due to the economic benefits it generates for tourist destinations in developing countries. Local procurement helps in creating jobs which consequently helps in alleviating poverty. However, there have been limited studies on local procurement patterns in developing countries. Research on hotel procurement practices has mainly emphasized the challenges that hoteliers face when procuring locally, leaving questions regarding their motivations to engage in local procurement unanswered. The institutional theory provides a suitable framework to better understand these motivations as it underlines the importance of individual cognitive perceptions on issues in shaping organizational response strategies. More specifically, the extent to which an issue is perceived to belong to the organization’s responsibility. Also the organizational actors’ belief of losses or gains resultant from acting or not acting on an issue (degree of importance). Furthermore the organizational actors’ belief of the probability of resolving an issue (degree of feasibility). These factors influence how an organization will act on this issue. Hence, this paper adopts an institutional perspective to examine local procurement patterns of food by hoteliers in Ghana. Qualitative interviews with 20 procurement managers about their procurement practices and motivations, as well as interviews with different stakeholders for data triangulation purposes, indicated that most hotels sourced their food from middlemen who imported most of their products. However, direct importation was more prevalent foreign owned hotels as opposed to locally owned ones. Notwithstanding, the importation and the usage of foreign foods as opposed to local ones can be explained by the lack of pressure from NGOs and trade associations on hotels to act responsibly. Though guests’ menu preferences were perceived as important to hoteliers business operations, western tourists demand foreign food primarily with the foreign owned hotels make it less important to procure local produce. Lastly hoteliers, particularly those in foreign owned ones, perceive local procurement to be less feasible, raising concerns about quality and variety of local produce. The paper outlines strategies to improve the perception and degree of local Firstly, there is the need for stakeholder engagement in order to make hoteliers feel responsible for acting on the issue.Again it is crucial for Ghana government to promote and encourage hotels to buy local produce. Also, the government has to also make funds and storage facilities available for farmers to impact on the quality and quantity of local produce. Moreover, Sites need to be secured for farmers to engage in sustained farming.Furthermore, there is the need for collaborations between various stakeholders to organize training programs for farmers. Notwithstanding hotels need to market local produce to their guests. Finally, the Ghana hotels association has to encourage hotels to indulge in local procurement.

Keywords: sustainable tourism, feasible, important, local procurement

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54 Emerging Issues for Global Impact of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) on Indian Economy

Authors: Kamlesh Shashikant Dave

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The global financial crisis is rooted in the sub-prime crisis in U.S.A. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commission, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit check. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on the assumptions that housing price would continue to rise. Also the real estate bubble encouraged the demand for houses as financial assets .Banks and financial institutions later repackaged these debts with other high risk debts and sold them to worldwide investors creating financial instruments called collateral debt obligations (CDOs). With the rise in interest rate, mortgage payments rose and defaults among the subprime category of borrowers increased accordingly. Through the securitization of mortgage payments, a recession developed in the housing sector and consequently it was transmitted to the entire US economy and rest of the world. The financial credit crisis has moved the US and the global economy into recession. Indian economy has also affected by the spill over effects of the global financial crisis. Great saving habit among people, strong fundamentals, strong conservative and regulatory regime have saved Indian economy from going out of gear, though significant parts of the economy have slowed down. Industrial activity, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors decelerated. The service sector too, slow in construction, transport, trade, communication, hotels and restaurants sub sectors. The financial crisis has some adverse impact on the IT sector. Exports had declined in absolute terms in October. Higher inputs costs and dampened demand have dented corporate margins while the uncertainty surrounding the crisis has affected business confidence. To summarize, reckless subprime lending, loose monetary policy of US, expansion of financial derivatives beyond acceptable norms and greed of Wall Street has led to this exceptional global financial and economic crisis. Thus, the global credit crisis of 2008 highlights the need to redesign both the global and domestic financial regulatory systems not only to properly address systematic risk but also to support its proper functioning (i.e financial stability).Such design requires: 1) Well managed financial institutions with effective corporate governance and risk management system 2) Disclosure requirements sufficient to support market discipline. 3)Proper mechanisms for resolving problem institution and 4) Mechanisms to protect financial services consumers in the event of financial institutions failure.

Keywords: FIIs, BSE, sensex, global impact

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53 Analysis of the Evolution of the Behavior of Land Users Linked to the Surge in the Prices of Cash Crops: Case of the Northeast Region of Madagascar

Authors: Zo Hasina Rabemananjara

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The North-East of Madagascar is the pillar of Madagascar's foreign trade, providing 41% and 80% of world exports of cloves and vanilla, respectively, in 2016. For Madagascar, the north-eastern escarpment is home to the last massifs of humid forest in large scale of the island, surrounded by a small scale agricultural mosaic. In the sites where this study is taking place, located in the peripheral zones of protected areas, the production of rent aims to supply international markets. In fact, importers of the cash crops produced in these areas are located mainly in India, Singapore, France, Germany and the United States. Recently, the price of these products has increased significantly, especially from the year 2015. For vanilla, the price has skyrocketed, from an approximate price of 73 USD per kilo in 2015 to more than 250 USD per kilo in 2016. The value of clove exports increased sharply by 49.4% in 2017, largely to Singapore and India due to the sharp increase in exported volume (+47, 6%) in 2017. If the relationship between the rise in prices of rented products and the change in physical environments is known, the evolution of the behavior of land users linked to this aspect was not yet addressed by research. In fact, the consequence of this price increase in the organization of the use of space at the local level still raises questions. Hence, the research question is: to what extent does this improvement in the price of imported products affect user behavior linked to the local organization of access to the factor of soil production? To fully appreciate this change in behavior, surveys of 144 land user households were carried out, and group interviews were also carried out. The results of this research showed that the rise in the prices of annuity products from the year 2015 caused significant changes in the behavior of land users in the study sites. Young people, who have not been attracted to farming for a long time, have started to show interest in it since the period of rising vanilla and clove prices. They have set up their own fields of vanilla and clove cultivation. This revival of interest conferred an important value on the land and caused conflicts especially between family members because the acquisition of the cultivated land was done by inheritance or donation. This change in user behavior has also affected the farmers' life strategy since the latter have decided to abandon rain-fed rice farming, which has long been considered a guaranteed subsistence activity for cash crops. This research will contribute to nourishing scientific reflection on the management of land use and also to support political decision-makers in decision-making on spatial planning.

Keywords: behavior of land users, North-eastern Madagascar, price of export products, spatial planning

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52 Nuancing the Indentured Migration in Amitav Ghosh's Sea of Poppies

Authors: Murari Prasad

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This paper is motivated by the implications of indentured migration depicted in Amitav Ghosh’s critically acclaimed novel, Sea of Poppies (2008). Ghosh’s perspective on the experiences of North Indian indentured labourers moving from their homeland to a distant and unknown location across the seas suggests a radical attitudinal change among the migrants on board the Ibis, a schooner chartered to carry the recruits from Calcutta to Mauritius in the late 1830s. The novel unfolds the life-altering trauma of the bonded servants, including their efforts to maintain a sense of self while negotiating significant social and cultural transformations during the voyage which leads to the breakdown of familiar life-worlds. Equally, the migrants are introduced to an alternative network of relationships to ensure their survival away from land. They relinquish their entrenched beliefs and prejudices and commit themselves to a new brotherhood formed by ‘ship siblings.’ With the official abolition of direct slavery in 1833, the supply of cheap labour to the sugar plantation in British colonies as far-flung as Mauritius and Fiji to East Africa and the Caribbean sharply declined. Around the same time, China’s attempt to prohibit the illegal importation of opium from British India into China threatened the lucrative opium trade. To run the ever-profitable plantation colonies with cheap labour, Indian peasants, wrenched from their village economies, were indentured to plantations as girmitiyas (vernacularized from ‘agreement’) by the colonial government using the ploy of an optional form of recruitment. After the British conquest of the Isle of France in 1810, Mauritius became Britain’s premier sugar colony bringing waves of Indian immigrants to the island. In the articulations of their subjectivities one notices how the recruits cope with the alienating drudgery of indenture, mitigate the hardships of the voyage and forge new ties with pragmatic acts of cultural syncretism in a forward-looking autonomous community of ‘ship-siblings’ following the fracture of traditional identities. This paper tests the hypothesis that Ghosh envisions a kind of futuristic/utopian political collectivity in a hierarchically rigid, racially segregated and identity-obsessed world. In order to ground the claim and frame the complex representations of alliance and love across the boundaries of caste, religion, gender and nation, the essential methodology here is a close textual analysis of the novel. This methodology will be geared to explicate the utopian futurity that the novel gestures towards by underlining new regulations of life during voyage and dissolution of multiple differences among the indentured migrants on board the Ibis.

Keywords: indenture, colonial, opium, sugar plantation

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51 Japanese and Europe Legal Frameworks on Data Protection and Cybersecurity: Asymmetries from a Comparative Perspective

Authors: S. Fantin

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This study is the result of the legal research on cybersecurity and data protection within the EUNITY (Cybersecurity and Privacy Dialogue between Europe and Japan) project, aimed at fostering the dialogue between the European Union and Japan. Based on the research undertaken therein, the author offers an outline of the main asymmetries in the laws governing such fields in the two regions. The research is a comparative analysis of the two legal frameworks, taking into account specific provisions, ratio legis and policy initiatives. Recent doctrine was taken into account, too, as well as empirical interviews with EU and Japanese stakeholders and project partners. With respect to the protection of personal data, the European Union has recently reformed its legal framework with a package which includes a regulation (General Data Protection Regulation), and a directive (Directive 680 on personal data processing in the law enforcement domain). In turn, the Japanese law under scrutiny for this study has been the Act on Protection of Personal Information. Based on a comparative analysis, some asymmetries arise. The main ones refer to the definition of personal information and the scope of the two frameworks. Furthermore, the rights of the data subjects are differently articulated in the two regions, while the nature of sanctions take two opposite approaches. Regarding the cybersecurity framework, the situation looks similarly misaligned. Japan’s main text of reference is the Basic Cybersecurity Act, while the European Union has a more fragmented legal structure (to name a few, Network and Information Security Directive, Critical Infrastructure Directive and Directive on the Attacks at Information Systems). On an relevant note, unlike a more industry-oriented European approach, the concept of cyber hygiene seems to be neatly embedded in the Japanese legal framework, with a number of provisions that alleviate operators’ liability by turning such a burden into a set of recommendations to be primarily observed by citizens. With respect to the reasons to fill such normative gaps, these are mostly grounded on three basis. Firstly, the cross-border nature of cybercrime brings to consider both magnitude of the issue and its regulatory stance globally. Secondly, empirical findings from the EUNITY project showed how recent data breaches and cyber-attacks had shared implications between Europe and Japan. Thirdly, the geopolitical context is currently going through the direction of bringing the two regions to significant agreements from a trade standpoint, but also from a data protection perspective (with an imminent signature by both parts of a so-called ‘Adequacy Decision’). The research conducted in this study reveals two asymmetric legal frameworks on cyber security and data protection. With a view to the future challenges presented by the strengthening of the collaboration between the two regions and the trans-national fashion of cybercrime, it is urged that solutions are found to fill in such gaps, in order to allow European Union and Japan to wisely increment their partnership.

Keywords: cybersecurity, data protection, European Union, Japan

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