Search results for: time period

Authors: Adel Nikfarjam, Hamed Tayebi, Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad

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This paper considers a two-echelon inventory system with a number of warehouses and a single retailer. The retailer replenishes its required items from warehouses, and assembles them into a single final product. We assume that each warehouse supplies only one kind of the raw material for the retailer. The demand process of the final product is assumed to be Poissson, and unsatisfied demand of the final product will be lost. The retailer applies one-for-one-period ordering policy which is also known as (1, T) ordering policy. In this policy the retailer orders to each warehouse a fixed quantity of each item at fixed time intervals, which the fixed quantity is equal to the utilization of the item in the final product. Since, this policy eliminates all demand uncertainties at the upstream echelon, the standard lot sizing model can be applied at all warehouses. In this paper, we calculate the total cost function of the inventory system. Then, based on this function, we present a procedure to obtain the optimal time interval between two consecutive order placements from retailer to the warehouses, and the optimal order quantities of warehouses (assuming that there are positive ordering costs at warehouses). Finally, we present some numerical examples, and conduct numerical sensitivity analysis for cost parameters.

Keywords: two-echelon supply chain, multi-vendor-single-buyer inventory system, lost sales, Poisson demand, one-for-one-period policy, lot sizing model

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Vineet Verma

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Air Quality Index (AQI) is used as a tool to indicate the level of severity and disseminate the information on air pollution to enable the public to understand the health and environmental impacts of air pollutant concentration levels. The annual and seasonal variation of criteria air pollutants concentration based on the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programme has been conducted for a period of nine years (2006-2014) using the AQI system. AQI was calculated using IND-AQI methodology and Maximum Operator Concept is applied. An attempt has been made to quantify the variations in AQI on an annual and seasonal basis over a period of nine years. Further, year-wise frequency of occurrence of AQI in each category for all the five stations is analysed, which presents in depth analysis of trends over the period of study. The best air quality was observed in the Noida residential area, followed by Noida industrial area during the study period; whereas, Bulandshahar industrial area and Faridabad residential area were observed to have the worst air quality. A shift in the worst air quality from winter to summer season has also been observed during the study period. Further, the level of Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter was found to be above permissible limit at all the stations. The present study helps in enhancing public awareness and calls for the need of immediate measures to be taken to counter-effect the cause of the increasing level of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality index, annual trends, criteria pollutants, seasonal variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: C. Iihoshi, G. A. MacRae, G. W. Rodgers, J. G. Chase

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Slab Sliding System (SSS) with Coulomb friction interface between slab and supporting frame is a passive structural vibration control technology. The system can significantly reduce the slab acceleration and accompanied lateral force of the frame. At the same time it is expected to cause the slab displacement magnification by sliding movement. To obtain the general comprehensive seismic response of a single story structure, inelastic response spectra were computed for a large ensemble of ground motions and a practical range of structural periods and friction coefficient values. It was shown that long period structures have no trade-off relation between force reduction and displacement magnification with respect to elastic response, unlike short period structures. For structures with the majority of mass in the slab, the displacement magnification value can be predicted according to simple inelastic displacement relation for in elastically responding SDOF structures because the system behaves elastically to a SDOF structure.

Keywords: earthquake, isolation, slab, sliding

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Authors: Andrei-Marius Sandu

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This study aims to analyze the bovine meat and milk sector for the period 2007-2013. For the period analyzed, it is known that Romania has benefited from EU funding through the National Rural Development Programme 2007-2013. In this programme, there were measures that addressed exclusively the animal husbandry sector in Romania. This paper presents data on bovine production of meat, milk and livestock in Romania, but also data on the price and impact the European Funds implementation had on them.

Keywords: European funds, measures, national rural development programme, price

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Authors: Anjali Bansal

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Reproductive preferences mainly deal with two questions: when a couple wants children and how many they want. Questions related to these desires are often included in the fertility surveys as they can provide relevant information on the subsequent behavior. The aim of the study is to observe whether respondent’s response to these questions changed over time or not. We also tried to identify socio- economic and demographic factors associated with the stability (or instability) of fertility preferences. For this purpose, we used IHDS1 (2004-05) and follow up survey IHDS2 (2011-12) data and applied bivariate, multivariate and multilevel repeated measure analysis to it to find the consistency between responses. From the analysis, we found that preferences of women changes over the course of time as from the bivariate analysis we have found that 52% of women are not consistent in their desired family size and huge inconsistency are found in desire to continue childbearing. To get a better overlook of these inconsistencies, we have computed Intra Class Correlation (ICC) which tries to explain the consistency between individuals on their fertility responses at two time periods. We also explored that husband’s desire for additional child specifically male offspring contribute to these variations. Our findings lead us to a cessation that in India, individuals fertility preferences changed over a seven-year time period as the Intra Class correlation comes out to be very small which explains the variations among individuals. Concerted efforts should be made, therefore, to educate people, and conduct motivational programs to promote family planning for family welfare.

Keywords: change, consistency, preferences, over time

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Abiodun M. Adeola, Hannes Rautenbach, Gbenga J. Abiodun, Thabo E. Makgoale, Joel O. Botai, Omolola M. Adisa, Christina M. Botai

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There was a surge in malaria morbidity as well as mortality in 2016/2017 malaria season in malaria-endemic regions of South Africa. Rainfall is a major climatic driver of malaria transmission and has potential use for predicting malaria. Annual and seasonal trends and cross-correlation analyses were performed on time series of monthly total rainfall (derived from interpolated weather station data) and monthly malaria cases in five districts of Limpopo Province for the period of 1998 to 2017. The time series analysis indicated that an average of 629.5mm of rainfall was received over the period of study. The rainfall has an annual variation of about 0.46%. Rainfall amount varies among the five districts, with the north-eastern part receiving more rainfall. Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that total monthly rainfall with one to two months lagged effect is significant in malaria transmission in all the five districts. The strongest correlation is noticed in Mopani (r=0.54; p-value = < 0.001), Vhembe (r=0.53; p-value = < 0.001), Waterberg (r=0.40; p-value = < 0.001), Capricorn (r=0.37; p-value = < 0.001) and lowest in Sekhukhune (r=0.36; p-value = < 0.001). More particularly, malaria morbidity showed a strong relationship with an episode of rainfall above 5-year running means of rainfall of 400 mm. Both annual and seasonal analyses showed that the effect of rainfall on malaria varied across the districts and it is seasonally dependent. Adequate understanding of climatic variables dynamics annually and seasonally is imperative in seeking answers to malaria morbidity among other factors, particularly in the wake of the sudden spike of the disease in the province.

Keywords: correlation, malaria, rainfall, seasonal, trends

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Authors: Abdalla Manur, Daniel Offin, Alessandro Arsie

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In this paper, we study the extension of the minimizing equal mass parallelogram solutions which was derived by Chen in 2001. Chen’s solution was minimizing for one quarter of the period [0; T], where numerical integration had been used in his proof. This paper focuses on extending the minimization property to intervals of time [0; 2T] and [0; 4T].

Keywords: action, Hamiltoian, N-body, symmetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 1646

Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Sule Sahin, Basak Bulut Karageyik

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This paper introduces a hazard rate function for the time of ruin to calculate the conditional probability of ruin for very small intervals. We call this function the force of ruin (FoR). We obtain the expected time of ruin and conditional expected time of ruin from the exact finite time ruin probability with exponential claim amounts. Then we introduce the FoR which gives the conditional probability of ruin and the condition is that ruin has not occurred at time t. We analyse the behavior of the FoR function for different initial surpluses over a specific time interval. We also obtain FoR under the excess of loss reinsurance arrangement and examine the effect of reinsurance on the FoR.

Keywords: conditional time of ruin, finite time ruin probability, force of ruin, reinsurance

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Authors: Ajab G. Majidi, Bilal Bingölbali, Adem Akpınar

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This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.

Keywords: annual power production, Black Sea, efficiency, power production performance, wave energy converter

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Authors: T. Costa, D. Narvaez, K. Melo, M. Villalva

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Installation of micro-generators based on renewable energy in power distribution system has increased in recent years, with the main renewable sources being solar and wind. Due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, such micro-generators produce time-varying energy which does not correspond at certain times of the day to the peak energy consumption of end users. For this reason, the use of energy storage units next to the grid contributes to the proper leveling of the buses’ voltage level according to Brazilian energy quality standards. In this work, the effect of the addition of a photovoltaic solar generator and a store of energy in the busbar voltages of an electric system is analyzed. The consumption profile is defined as the average hourly use of appliances in a common residence, and the generation profile is defined as a function of the solar irradiation available in a locality. The power summation method is validated with analytical calculation and is used to calculate the modules and angles of the voltages in the buses of an electrical system based on the IEEE standard, at each hour of the day and with defined load and generation profiles. The results show that bus 5 presents the worst voltage level at the power consumption peaks and stabilizes at the appropriate range with the inclusion of the energy storage during the night time period. Solar generator maintains improvement of the voltage level during the period when it receives solar irradiation, having peaks of production during the 12 pm (without exceeding the appropriate maximum levels of tension).

Keywords: energy storage, power distribution system, solar generator, voltage level

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Authors: Paul Campbell, Nicholas Biddle

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There is a complex, endogenous relationship between individual circumstances, attitudes, and behaviour. This study uses longitudinal panel data to assess changes in social and political attitudes over a 7-year period. Attitudes are captured with the question 'what is the most important issue facing Australia today', collected at multiple time points in a longitudinal survey of 2200 Australians. Consistency of attitudes, and factors predicting change over time, are assessed. The consistency of responses has methodological implications for data collection, specifically how often such questions ought to be asked of a population. When change in attitude is observed, this study assesses the extent to which individual demographic characteristics, personality traits, and broader societal events predict change.

Keywords: attitudes, longitudinal survey analysis, personality, social values

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Authors: Kohtaroh Miyamoto

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As enterprise computing becomes more and more complex, the costs and technical challenges of IT system maintenance and support are increasing rapidly. One popular approach to managing IT system maintenance is to prepare and use an FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) system to manage and reuse systems knowledge. Such an FAQ system can help reduce the resolution time for each service incident ticket. However, there is a major problem where over time the knowledge in such FAQs tends to become outdated. Much of the knowledge captured in the FAQ requires periodic updates in response to new insights or new trends in the problems addressed in order to maintain its usefulness for problem resolution. These updates require a systematic approach to define the exact portion of the FAQ and its content. Therefore, we are working on a novel method to hierarchically structure the FAQ and automate the updates of its structure and content. We use structured information and the unstructured text information with the timelines of the information in the service incident tickets. We cluster the tickets by structured category information, by keywords, and by keyword modifiers for the unstructured text information. We also calculate an urgency score based on trends, resolution times, and priorities. We carefully studied the tickets of one of our projects over a 2.5-year time period. After the first 6 months, we started to create FAQs and confirmed they improved the resolution times. We continued observing over the next 2 years to assess the ongoing effectiveness of our method for the automatic FAQ updates. We improved the ratio of tickets covered by the FAQ from 32.3% to 68.9% during this time. Also, the average time reduction of ticket resolution was between 31.6% and 43.9%. Subjective analysis showed more than 75% reported that the FAQ system was useful in reducing ticket resolution times.

Keywords: FAQ system, resolution time, service incident tickets, IT system maintenance

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Authors: Gong Zhang, Hong Cai, Bin Dong, Jifang Tao, Aiqun Liu, Dim-Lee Kwong, Yuandong Gu

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An on-chip refractive index sensor with high sensitivity and large measurement range is demonstrated in this paper. The sensing structures are based on Mach-Zehnder interferometer configuration, built on the SOI substrate. The wavelength sensitivity of the sensor is estimated to be 3129 nm/RIU. Meanwhile, according to the interference pattern period changes, the measured period sensitivities are 2.9 nm/RIU (TE mode) and 4.21 nm/RIU (TM mode), respectively. As such, the wavelength shift and the period shift can be used for fine index change detection and larger index change detection, respectively. Therefore, the sensor design provides an approach for large index change measurement with high sensitivity.

Keywords: Mach-Zehnder interferometer, nanotechnology, refractive index sensing, sensors

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Authors: Rammah Abdlbagi, Similoluwa Biyi, Aakash Pai

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Introduction: Short-term ureteric stents are commonly placed after ureteroscopy procedures. The removal usually entails having a flexible cystoscopy, which entails a further invasive procedure. There are often delays in removing the stent as departments have limited cystoscopy availability. However, if stents with extraction strings are used, the patient or a clinician can remove them. The aim of the study is to assess the safety and effectiveness of the use of a stent with a string. Method: A retrospective, single-institution study was conducted over a three-month period. Twenty consecutive patients had ureteric stents with string insertion. Ten of the patients had a stent removal procedure previously with flexible cystoscopy. A validated questionnaire was used to assess outcomes. Primary outcomes included: dysuria, hematuria, urinary frequency, and disturbance of the patient’s daily activities. Secondary outcomes included pain experience during the stent removal. Result: Fifteen patients (75%) experienced hematuria and frequency. Two patients experienced pain and discomfort during the stent removal (10%). Two patients had experienced a disturbance in their daily activity (10%). All patients who had stent removal before using flexible cystoscopy preferred the removal of the stent using a string. None of the patients had stent displacement. The median stent dwell time was five days. Conclusion: Patient reported outcomes measures for the indwelling period of a stent with extraction string are equivalent to the published data on stents. Extraction strings mean that the stent dwell time can be reduced. The removal of the stent on extraction strings is more tolerable than the conventional stent.

Keywords: ureteric stent, string flexible cystoscopy, stent symptoms, validated questionnaire

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Authors: Tomas Menard

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The design of control-law for engineering systems has been investigated for many decades. While many results are concerned with continuous systems with continuous output, nowadays, many controlled systems have to transmit their output measurements through network, hence making it discrete-time. But it is well known that the sampling of a system whose control-law is based on the continuous output may render the system unstable, especially when this sampling period is long compared to the system dynamics. The control design then has to be adapted in order to cope with this issue. In this paper, we consider systems which can be modeled as double integrator with uncertainty on the input since many mechanical systems can be put under such form. We present a control scheme based on an observer using only discrete time measurement and which provides continuous time estimation of the state, combined with a continuous control law, which stabilized a system with second-order dynamics even in the presence of uncertainty. It is further shown that arbitrarily long sampling periods can be dealt with properly setting the control scheme parameters.

Keywords: dynamical system, control law design, sampled output, observer design

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Authors: Swapan Maiti, Dipanwita Roy Chowdhury

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Nonlinear functions are essential in different cryptoprimitives as they play an important role on the security of the cipher designs. Rule 30 was identified as a powerful nonlinear function for cryptographic applications. However, an attack (MS attack) was mounted against Rule 30 Cellular Automata (CA). Nonlinear rules as well as maximum period CA increase randomness property. In this work, nonlinear rules of maximum period nonlinear hybrid CA (M-NHCA) are studied and it is shown to be a better crypto-primitive than Rule 30 CA. It has also been analysed that the M-NHCA with single nonlinearity injection proposed in the literature is vulnerable against MS attack, whereas M-NHCA with multiple nonlinearity injections provide maximum length cycle as well as better cryptographic primitives and they are also secure against MS attack.

Keywords: cellular automata, maximum period nonlinear CA, Meier and Staffelbach attack, nonlinear functions

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Authors: Mehmet Demir Kaya, Onur İleri, Süleyman Avcı

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This study was conducted to determine a suitable time and temperature combination for the electrical conductivity test to be used in sorghum seeds. Fifty seeds known initial seed moisture content and weight of fresh and dead seeds (105°C for 6h) of seven sorghum cultivars were used as material. The electrical conductivities of soak water were measured using EC meter at 20, 25 and 30°C for 4, 8, 12 and 24 h using 50 mL deionized water. The experimental design was three factors factorial (7 × 3 × 4) arranged in a completely randomized design; with four replications and 50 seeds per replicate. The results showed that increased time and temperature caused a remarkable increase in EC values of all of the cultivars. Temperature significantly affected the electrical conductivity values and the best results were obtained at 25°C. The cultivars having the lowest germination percentage gave the highest electrical conductivity value. Dead seeds always gave higher electrical conductivity at 25°C for all periods. It was concluded that the temperature of 25°C and higher period than 12 h was the optimum combination for the electrical conductivity test in sorghum.

Keywords: Sorghum bicolor, seed vigor, cultivar, temperature

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Authors: Hatem Abou-Senna

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Interstate 4 (I-4) is a primary east-west transportation corridor between Tampa and Daytona cities, serving commuters, commercial and recreational traffic. I-4 is known to have severe recurring congestion during peak hours. The congestion spans about 11 miles in the evening peak period in the central corridor area as it is considered the only non-tolled limited access facility connecting the Orlando Central Business District (CBD) and the tourist attractions area (Walt Disney World). Florida officials had been skeptical of tolling I-4 prior to the recent legislation, and the public through the media had been complaining about the excessive toll facilities in Central Florida. So, in search for plausible mitigation to the congestion on the I-4 corridor, this research is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of different toll pricing alternatives that might divert traffic from I-4 to the toll facilities during the peak period. The network is composed of two main diverging limited access highways, freeway (I-4) and toll road (SR 417) in addition to two east-west parallel toll roads SR 408 and SR 528, intersecting the above-mentioned highways from both ends. I-4 and toll road SR 408 are the most frequently used route by commuters. SR-417 is a relatively uncongested toll road with 15 miles longer than I-4 and $5 tolls compared to no monetary cost on 1-4 for the same trip. The results of the calibrated Orlando PARAMICS network showed that percentages of route diversion vary from one route to another and depends primarily on the travel cost between specific origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Most drivers going from Disney (O1) or Lake Buena Vista (O2) to Lake Mary (D1) were found to have a high propensity towards using I-4, even when eliminating tolls and/or providing real-time information. However, a diversion from I-4 to SR 417 for these OD pairs occurred only in the cases of the incident and lane closure on I-4, due to the increase in delay and travel costs, and when information is provided to travelers. Furthermore, drivers that diverted from I-4 to SR 417 and SR 528 did not gain significant travel-time savings. This was attributed to the limited extra capacity of the alternative routes in the peak period and the longer traveling distance. When the remaining origin-destination pairs were analyzed, average travel time savings on I-4 ranged between 10 and 16% amounting to 10 minutes at the most with a 10% increase in the network average speed. High propensity of diversion on the network increased significantly when eliminating tolls on SR 417 and SR 528 while doubling the tolls on SR 408 along with the incident and lane closure scenarios on I-4 and with real-time information provided. The toll roads were found to be a viable alternative to I-4 for these specific OD pairs depending on the user perception of the toll cost which was reflected in their specific travel times. However, on the macroscopic level, it was concluded that route diversion through toll reduction or elimination on surrounding toll roads would only have a minimum impact on reducing I-4 congestion during the peak period.

Keywords: congestion pricing, dynamic feedback assignment, microsimulation, paramics, route diversion

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Authors: Hyung-Jin Kim, Dae-Wan Kim, Moo-Yeon Lee

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The objective of this study is to experimentally investigate the heat transfer characteristics of 200 W class woofer speaker units with the input voice signals. The temperature and heat transfer characteristics of the 200 W class woofer speaker unit were experimentally tested with the several input voice signals such as 1500 Hz, 2500 Hz, and 5000 Hz respectively. From the experiments, it can be observed that the temperature of the woofer speaker unit including the voice-coil part increases with a decrease in input voice signals. Also, the temperature difference in measured points of the voice coil is increased with decrease of the input voice signals. In addition, the heat transfer characteristics of the woofer speaker in case of the input voice signal of 1500 Hz is 40% higher than that of the woofer speaker in case of the input voice signal of 5000 Hz at the measuring time of 200 seconds. It can be concluded from the experiments that initially the temperature of the voice signal increases rapidly with time, after a certain period of time it increases exponentially. Also during this time dependent temperature change, it can be observed that high voice signal is stable than low voice signal.

Keywords: heat transfer, temperature, voice coil, woofer speaker

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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Authors: Pingping Zhang, Yanpeng Cai, Jianlong Wang

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Stormwater storage tank (SST) is a popular low impact development technology for reducing stormwater runoff in the construction of sponge city. At present, it is difficult to perform the automatic control of SST for reducing peak flow. In this paper, fuzzy control was introduced into the peak control of SST to improve the efficiency of reducing stormwater runoff. Firstly, the design of SST was investigated. A catchment area and a return period were assumed, a SST model was manufactured, and then the storage capacity of the SST was verified. Secondly, the control parameters of the SST based on reducing stormwater runoff were analyzed, and a schematic diagram of real-time control (RTC) system based on peak control SST was established. Finally, fuzzy control system of a double input (flow and water level) and double output (inlet and outlet valve) was designed. The results showed that 1) under the different return periods (one year, three years, five years), the SST had the effect of delayed peak control and storage by increasing the detention time, 2) rainfall, pipeline flow, the influent time and the water level in the SST could be used as RTC parameters, and 3) the response curves of flow velocity and water level fluctuated very little and reached equilibrium in a short time. The combination of online monitoring and fuzzy control was feasible to control the SST automatically. This paper provides a theoretical reference for reducing stormwater runoff and improving the operation efficiency of SST.

Keywords: stormwater runoff, stormwater storage tank, real-time control, fuzzy control

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Authors: Weena Eiamprapai

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The growth of Thai society in western style in the middle of Rattanakosin period can be defined as modernization /civilization. These terms had an influence on the development of the country in the reign of King Rama V owing to the governance reform, and cultures influenced by the West. Those were passed on until the reign of King Rama VI. The preference was not only for the renovation of architecture and arts based on Thai customs reflecting the prosperity and beauty of handicrafts but also for the acceptance of westernization. The remain of this acceptance includes the concept of such value as gentlemanly behavior like that in Victorian Era of the United Kingdom, and the support of women’s status. Moreover, the wide spread of modernization leads to the movement to change the country’s governance system from absolute monarchy to democracy by a group of people called Rattanakosin Era (R.E.) 130 party.

Keywords: art, culture, development period, modernization, King Rama VI

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Oksana Ivanyk, Nataliia Dzerovych

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In the diagnostics of osteoporosis, the gold standard is considered to be bone mineral density; however, X-ray densitometry is not an accurate indicator of osteoporotic fracture risk under all circumstances. In this regard, the search for new methods that could determine the indicators not only of the mineral density, but of the bone tissue quality, is a logical step for diagnostic optimization. One of these methods is the evaluation of trabecular bone quality. The aim of this study was to examine the quality and mineral density of spine bone tissue, femoral neck, and body composition of women depending on the duration of the postmenopausal period, to determine the correlation of body fat with indicators of bone mineral density and quality. The study examined 179 women in premenopausal and postmenopausal periods. The patients were divided into the following groups: Women in the premenopausal period and women in the postmenopausal period at various stages (early, middle, late postmenopause). A general examination and study of the above parameters were conducted with General Electric X-ray densitometer. The results show that bone quality and mineral density probably deteriorate with advancing of postmenopausal period. Total fat and lean mass ratio is not likely to change with age. In the middle and late postmenopausal periods, the bone tissue mineral density of the spine and femoral neck increases along with total fat mass.

Keywords: osteoporosis, bone tissue mineral density, bone quality, fat mass, lean mass, postmenopausal osteoporosis

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Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

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Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: Haitham Nabil Zaghlol Hasan

Abstract:

This research aims to study the means of securing graves in the Egyptian kingdom era, and revolves around many basic ideas used by the ancient Egyptian to protect his graves from thieves, which included architectural characteristics, which gave it importance only others. The most important of which was the choice of the place of the grave, which chose a kohl place in the desert to protect the graves, which is the valley of kings, and whether the choice of that place had an impact in protecting the grave or not, in addition to other elements followed in the architectural planning, which was in the valley of kings. The multiplicity of the tomb, the construction of the well chamber to deceive the thieves by the end of the graves suddenly, the construction of the wells of the tombs, which contained the burial chamber at the bottom of the main well and the effect of all these factors on the graves, and this shows the importance of the graves to the ancient Egyptian and his belief in resurrection and immortality. The Egyptian resorted to the elements of protection and was a religious worker by The protector gods and special texts to protect the deceased from any danger to protect the tomb. As for the human factor of securing the tomb through human guards (police) and security teams based on the guard and the words indicating the protection and the guard teams and the teams of the majai. The most important developments that arose on the cemetery from Tamit entrance, corridors, chambers, burial chamber and coffin, and the use of sand to close the well after from one cemetery to another and from time to time where it was built in the late period inside the temple campus to be under the attention of the priests and their protection, as the study dealt with an analytical study For the means of securing graves in the Egyptian kingdom period.

Keywords: Egypt, archaeology, civilization, Egyptian

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Authors: Margareta Simina Stanc, Aurel Mototolea, Tiberiu Potarniche

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The city of Constanta (former Köstence) is located in the Dobrogea region, on the west shore of the Black Sea. Between 1420-1878, Dobrogea was a possession of the Ottoman Empire. Archaeological researches starting with the second half of the 20th century revealed various traces of the Ottoman period in this region. Between 2016-2018, preventive archaeological research conducted in the perimeter of the old Ottoman city of Köstence led to the discovery of structures of habitation as well as of numerous artifacts of the Ottoman period (pottery, coins, buckles, etc.). This study uses the analysis of these new discoveries to complete the picture of daily life in the Ottoman period. In 2017, in the peninsular area of Constanta, preventive archaeological research began at a point in the former Ottoman area. In the range between the current ironing level and the -1.5m depth, the Ottoman period materials appeared constantly. It is worth noting the structure of a large building that has been repaired at least once but could not be fully investigated. In parallel to this wall, there was arranged a transversally arranged brick-lined drainage channel. The drainage channel is poured into a tank (hazna), filled with various vintage materials, but mainly gilded ceramics and iron objects. This type of hazna is commonly found in Constanta for the pre-modern and modern period due to the lack of a sewage system in the peninsular area. A similar structure, probably fountain, was discovered in 2016 in another part of the old city. An interesting piece is that of a cup (probably) Persians and a bowl belonging to Kütahya style, both of the 17th century, proof of commercial routes passing through Constanta during that period and indirectly confirming the documentary testimonies of the time. Also, can be mentioned the discovery, in the year 2016, on the occasion of underwater research carried out by specialists of the department of the Constanta Museum, at a depth of 15 meters, a Turkish oil lamp (17th - the beginning of the 18th century), among other objects of a sunken ship. The archaeological pieces, in a fragmentary or integral state, found in research campaigns 2016-2018, are undergoing processing or restoration, leaving out all the available information, and establishing exact analogies. These discoveries bring new data to the knowledge of daily life during the Ottoman administration in the former Köstence, a locality on the periphery of the Islamic world.

Keywords: habitation, material culture, Ottoman administration, Ottoman archaeology, periphery

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Authors: Bea Carmel H. Casiding, Charmaine A. Guy, Funny Jovis P. Malasan, Katrina Chelsea B. Manlutac, Danielle Ann N. Novilla, Marianne R. Oliveros, Magnolia C. Sibulo

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Moon jellyfish, Aurelia aurita, has become a popular research organism for diverse studies. Recent studies have verified the prevention of blood clotting properties of the moon jellyfish tentacle extract through in vitro methods. The purpose of this study was to validate the blood clotting ability of A. aurita tentacle extract using in vivo method of experimentation. The tentacles of A. aurita jellyfish were excised and filtered then centrifuged at 3000xg for 10 minutes. The crude nematocyst extract was suspended in 1:6 ratios with phosphate buffer solution and sonicated for three periods of 20 seconds each at 50 Hz. Protein concentration of the extract was determined using Bradford Assay. Bovine serum albumin was the standard solution used with the following concentrations: 35.0, 70.0, 105.0, 140.0, 175.0, 210.0, 245.0, and 280.0 µg/mL. The absorbance was read at 595 nm. Toxicity testing from OECD guidelines was adapted. The extract suspended in phosphate-buffered saline solution was arbitrarily set into three doses (0.1mg/kg, 0.3mg/kg, 0.5mg/kg) and were administered daily for five days to the experimental groups of five male Sprague-Dawley rats (one dose per group). Before and after the administration period, bleeding time and clotting time tests were performed. The One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the difference of before and after bleeding time and clotting time from the three treatment groups, time, positive and negative control groups. The average protein concentration of the sonicated crude tentacle extract was 206.5 µg/mL. The highest dose administered (0.5mg/kg) produced significant increase in the time for both bleeding and clotting tests. However, the preceding lower dose (0.3mg/kg) only was significantly effective for clotting time test. The protein contained in the tentacle extract with a concentration of 206.5 mcg/mL and dose of 0.3 mg/kg and 0.5 mg/kg of A. aurita elicited anticoagulating activity.

Keywords: anticoagulant, bleeding time test, clotting time test, moon jellyfish

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Authors: Uliana N. Tumanova, Viacheslav M. Lyapin, Vladimir G. Bychenko, Alexandr I. Shchegolev, Gennady T. Sukhikh

Abstract:

All cases of stillbirth undoubtedly subject to postmortem examination, since it is necessary to find out the cause of the stillbirths, as well as a forecast of future pregnancies and their outcomes. Determination of the time of death is an important issue which is addressed during the examination of the body of a stillborn. It is mean the period from the time of death until the birth of the fetus. The time for fetal deaths determination is based on the assessment of the severity of the processes of maceration. To study the possibilities of postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for determining the time of intrauterine fetal death based on the evaluation of maceration in the kidney. We have conducted MRI morphological comparisons of 7 dead fetuses (18-21 gestational weeks) and 26 stillbirths (22-39 gestational weeks), and 15 bodies of died newborns at the age of 2 hours – 36 days. Postmortem MRI 3T was performed before the autopsy. The signal intensity of the kidney tissue (SIK), pleural fluid (SIF), external air (SIA) was determined on T1-WI and T2-WI. Macroscopic and histological signs of maceration severity and time of death were evaluated in the autopsy. Based on the results of the morphological study, the degree of maceration varied from 0 to 4. In 13 cases, the time of intrauterine death was up to 6 hours, in 2 cases - 6-12 hours, in 4 -12-24 hours, in 9 -2-3 days, in 3 -1 week, in 2 -1,5-2 weeks. At 15 dead newborns, signs of maceration were absent, naturally. Based on the data from SIK, SIF, SIA on MR-tomograms, we calculated the coefficient of MR-maceration (M). The calculation of the time of intrauterine death (MP-t) (hours) was performed by our formula: МR-t = 16,87+95,38×М²-75,32×М. A direct positive correlation of MR-t and autopsy data from the dead at the gestational ages 22-40 weeks, with a dead time, not more than 1 week, was received. The maceration at the antenatal fetal death is characterized by changes in T1-WI and T2-WI signals at postmortem MRI. The calculation of MP-t allows defining accurately the time of intrauterine death within one week at the stillbirths who died on 22-40 gestational weeks. Thus, our study convincingly demonstrates that radiological methods can be used for postmortem study of the bodies, in particular, the bodies of stillborn to determine the time of intrauterine death. Postmortem MRI allows for an objective and sufficiently accurate analysis of pathological processes with the possibility of their documentation, storage, and analysis after the burial of the body.

Keywords: intrauterine death, maceration, postmortem MRI, stillborn

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