Search results for: threat modelling

Authors: Nathaporn Areerachakul

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In this study, the adsorption capacity of GAC with metsulfuron methyl was evaluated by using adsorption equilibrium and a fixed bed. Mathematical modelling was also used to simulate the GAC adsorption behavior. Adsorption equilibrium experiment of GAC was conducted using a constant concentration of metsulfuron methyl of 10 mg/L. The purpose of this study was to find the single component equilibrium concentration of herbicide. The adsorption behavior was simulated using the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Sips isotherm. The Sips isotherm fitted the experimental data reasonably well with an error of 6.6 % compared with 15.72 % and 7.07% for the Langmuir isotherm and Freudrich isotherm. Modelling using GAC adsorption theory could not replicate the experimental results in fixed bed column of 10 and 15 cm bed depths after a period more than 10 days of operation. This phenomenon is attributed to the formation of micro-organism (BAC) on the surface of GAC in addition to GAC alone.

Keywords: isotherm, adsorption equilibrium, GAC, metsulfuron methyl

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Authors: Csaba Tóth, Éva Lakatos, László Pethő, Seoyoung Cho

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The temperature effect on asphalt pavement structure is a crucial factor at the design stage. In this paper, by applying the German guidelines for temperature along the asphalt depth is estimated. The aim is to consider temperature profiles in different seasons in numerical modelling. The model is built with an elastic and isotropic solid element with 19 subdivisions of asphalt layers to reflect the temperature variation. Comparison with the simple three-layer pavement system (asphalt layers, base, and subgrade layers) will be followed to see the difference in result without temperature variation along with the depth. Finally, the fatigue life calculation was checked to prove the validity of the methodology of considering the temperature in the numerical modelling.

Keywords: temperature profile, flexible pavement modeling, finite element method, temperature modeling

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Authors: Ali M. Al-Shaery

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The purpose of this paper is to address the functions of sustainability dimensions in city information modelling and to present the required sustainability criteria that support establishing a sustainable planning framework for enhancing existing cities and developing future smart cities. The paper is divided into two sections. The first section is based on the examination of a wide and extensive array of cross-disciplinary literature in the last decade and a half to conceptualize the terms ‘sustainable’ and ‘smart city,' and map their associated criteria to city information modelling. The second section is based on analyzing two approaches relating to city information modelling, namely statistical and dynamic approaches, and their suitability in the development of cities’ action plans. The paper argues that the use of statistical approaches to embedding sustainability dimensions in city information modelling have limited value. Despite the popularity of such approaches in addressing other dimensions like utility and service management in development and action plans of the world cities, these approaches are unable to address the dynamics across various city sectors with regards to economic, environmental and social criteria. The paper suggests an integrative dynamic and cross-disciplinary planning approach to embedding sustainability dimensions in city information modelling frameworks. Such an approach will pave the way towards optimal planning and implementation of priority actions of projects and investments. The approach can be used to achieve three main goals: (1) better development and action plans for world cities (2) serve the development of an integrative dynamic and cross-disciplinary framework that incorporates economic, environmental and social sustainability criteria and (3) address areas that require further attention in the development of future sustainable and smart cities. The paper presents an innovative approach for city information modelling and a well-argued, balanced hierarchy of sustainability criteria that can contribute to an area of research which is still in its infancy in terms of development and management.

Keywords: information modelling, smart city, sustainable city, sustainability dimensions, sustainability criteria, city development planning

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Authors: Vojo George Fasinu, Nadaraj Govender, Predeep Kumar

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An Antenna, which remains the hub of technological development in Africa had been found to be a course that is been taught and designed in an abstract manner in some universities. One of the reasons attached to this is that the appropriate approach of teaching antenna design is not yet understood by many engineering academics in some universities in South Africa. Also, another problem reported is the main difficulty encountered when interpreting and applying some of the mathematical concepts learned into their practical antenna design course. As a result of this, some engineering experts classified antenna as a mysterious technology that could not be described by anybody using mathematical concepts. In view of this, this paper takes it as its point of departure in explaining what an antenna is all about with a strong emphasis on its mathematical modelling. It also argues that the place of modelling mathematical concepts into the teaching of engineering design cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, it explains the mathematical concepts adopted during the teaching of an antenna design course, the Strategies of modelling those mathematics concepts, the behavior of antennas, and their mathematics usage were equally discussed. More so, the paper also sheds more light on mathematical modelling in South Africa context, and also comparative analysis of mathematics concepts taught in mathematics class and mathematics concepts taught in engineering courses. This paper focuses on engineering academics teaching selected topics in electronic engineering (Antenna design), with special attention on the mathematical concepts they teach and how they teach them when teaching the course. A qualitative approach was adopted as a means of collecting data in order to report the naturalistic views of the engineering academics teaching Antenna design. The findings of the study confirmed that some mathematical concepts are being modeled into the teaching of an antenna design with the adoption of some teaching approaches. Furthermore, the paper reports a didactical-realistic mathematical model as a conceptual framework used by the researchers in describing how academics teach mathematical concepts during their teaching of antenna design. Finally, the paper concludes with the importance of mathematical modelling to the engineering academics and recommendations for further researchers.

Keywords: modelling, mathematical concepts, engineering, didactical, realistic model

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Authors: B. Salehi, D. Andrews, I. Chaer, A. Gillich, A. Chalk, D. Bush

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With the rapid increase of energy consumption in buildings in recent years, especially with the rise in population and growing economies, the importance of energy savings in buildings becomes more critical. One of the key factors in ensuring energy consumption is controlled and kept at a minimum is to utilise building energy modelling at the very early stages of the design. So, building modelling and simulation is a growing discipline. During the design phase of construction, modelling software can be used to estimate a building’s projected energy consumption, as well as building performance. The growth in the use of building modelling software packages opens the door for improvements in the design and also in the modelling itself by introducing novel methods such as building information modelling-based software packages which promote conventional building energy modelling into the digital building design process. To understand the most effective implementation tools, research projects undertaken should include elements of real-world experiments and not just rely on theoretical and simulated approaches. Upon review of the related studies undertaken, it’s evident that they are mostly based on modelling and simulation, which can be due to various reasons such as the more expensive and time-consuming nature of real-time data-based studies. Taking in to account the recent rise of building energy software modelling packages and the increasing number of studies utilising these methods in their projects and research, the accuracy and reliability of these modelling software packages has become even more crucial and critical. This Energy Performance Gap refers to the discrepancy between the predicted energy savings and the realised actual savings, especially after buildings implement energy-efficient technologies. There are many different software packages available which are either free or have commercial versions. In this study, IES VE (Integrated Environmental Solutions Virtual Environment) is used as it is a common Building Energy Modeling and Simulation software in the UK. This paper describes a study that compares real time results with those in a virtual model to illustrate this gap. The subject of the study is a north west facing north-west (345°) facing, naturally ventilated, conservatory within a domestic building in London is monitored during summer to capture real-time data. Then these results are compared to the virtual results of IES VE, which is a commonly used building energy modelling and simulation software in the UK. In this project, the effect of the wrong position of blinds on overheating is studied as well as providing new evidence of Performance Gap. Furthermore, the challenges of drawing the input of solar shading products in IES VE will be considered.

Keywords: building energy modelling and simulation, integrated environmental solutions virtual environment, IES VE, performance gap, real time data, solar shading products

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Authors: Sushil Kumar, M. Dakshina Murty

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Thermal network modelling has proven to be important tool for thermal analysis of electrical machine. This article investigates numerical thermal network model and experimental performance of a large-scale AC motor. Experimental temperatures were measured using RTD in the stator which have been compared with the numerical data. Thermal network modelling fairly predicts the temperature of various components inside the large-scale AC motor. Results of stator winding temperature is compared with experimental results which are in close agreement with accuracy of 6-10%. This method of predicting hot spots within AC motors can be readily used by the motor designers for estimating the thermal hot spots of the machine.

Keywords: AC motor, thermal network, heat transfer, modelling

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Authors: E. Ramprasath, P. Manojkumar, P. Veena

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Proposed paper dealt with the modelling and analysis of induction motor based on the mathematical expression using the graphical programming environment of Laboratory Virtual Instrument Engineering Workbench (LabVIEW). Induction motor modelling with the mathematical expression enables the motor to be simulated with the various required parameters. Owing to the invention of variable speed drives study about the induction motor characteristics became complex.In this simulation motor internal parameter such as stator resistance and reactance, rotor resistance and reactance, phase voltage, frequency and losses will be given as input. By varying the speed of motor corresponding parameters can be obtained they are input power, output power, efficiency, torque induced, slip and current.

Keywords: induction motor, LabVIEW software, modelling and analysi, electrical and mechanical characteristics of motor

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Authors: Aurelia Samuel

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Socio-economic modelling approaches linked to water management have contributed to impact assessments of agricultural policies and management practices on water quality at catchment level. With an increasing interest in informing water management policy that considers complex links between socioeconomic factors, climate change, agricultural production, and water quality, several models have been developed and applied in the literature to capture these relationships. This paper offers an overview of socio-economic approaches that have been incorporated within an integrated framework. It also highlights how data gaps on socio-economic factors have been addressed using forecasting techniques. Findings of the review show that while integrated frameworks have the potential to account for complexities within dynamic systems, they generally do not provide direct, measurable financial impact of socio-economic factors on biophysical water parameters that affect water quality. The paper concludes with a recommendation that modelling framework is kept simple to make it more transparent and easier to capture the most important relationship.

Keywords: financial impact, integrated framework, socio-economic modelling, water quality

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Authors: Blaž Likozar, Andraž Pavlišič, Matic Pavlin, Taja Žibert, Aleksandra Zamljen, Sašo Gyergyek, Matej Huš

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Ammonia is gaining recognition as a carbon-free fuel for energy-intensive applications, particularly transportation, industry, and power generation. Due to its physical properties, high energy density of 3 kWh kg-1, and high gravimetric hydrogen capacity of 17.6 wt%, ammonia is an efficient energy vector for green hydrogen, capable of mitigating hydrogen’s storage, distribution, and infrastructure deployment limitations. Chemicalstorage in the form of ammonia provides an efficient and affordable solution for energy storage, which is currently a critical step in overcoming the intermittency of abundant renewable energy sources with minimal or no environmental impact. Experiments were carried out to validate the modelling in a packed bed reactor, which proved to be agreeing.

Keywords: hydrogen, ammonia, catalysis, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: Yanga Lusanda Praiseworth Majola

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The small town of Umzimkhulu is situated in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa and was once the Bantustan of Transkei. Citizens of Umzimkulu are called amaBhaca because they speak isiBhaca, which is a non-standard language but is mutually intelligible to three standard official languages, isiXhosa, isiZulu, and siSwati. Since Umzimkhulu was under the Eastern Cape Province prior to 2006, isiXhosa is used for official purposes, particularly in schools, then isiZulu is used in other sectors; this is despite the fact that the majority of Umzimkhulu citizens regard themselves as amaBhaca. This poses a threat to both isiBhaca as a language and the identity of amaBhaca because Umzimkhulu is situated in KZN, where isiZulu is the dominant language spoken by the majority in the province. The primary objective of this study is to unveil, using the language dominance theory, how dominant languages pose a threat to minority and developing languages or dialects. The study employed a mixed-methods approach. Data was obtained from key community members and leaders who were identified as amaBhaca, who have lived in Umzimkhulu their whole lives. The main findings of the study are that although isiBhaca is classified as a dialect of isiXhosa, linguistically, it is closer to isiZulu, and thus isiZulu poses much threat to the existence of isiBhaca since it becomes easy for amaBhaca to switch from isiBhaca to isiZulu and end up not having an interest in isiBhaca. Respondents revealed that in their view, isiBhaca is a language of its own, and the continuous use and empowerment of isiZulu in Umzimkhulu, particularly in the professional settings, is detrimental to isiBhaca, and this subsequently has the potential of endangering the existence of isiBhaca and might lead to its attrition.

Keywords: language dominance, dominant languages, minority languages, language attrition

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Authors: Emily Fortune Super, Ameerah Khadaroo, Aurore Bardey

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Fashion models are often assumed to have a glamorous job with limited consideration for their well-being. This study aims to assess the well-being of models through semi-structured interviews with six professional fashion models and six industry professionals. Thematic analysis revealed that although models experienced improved self-confidence, they also reported heightened anxiety levels, body image issues, and the negative influence of modelling on their self-esteem. By contrast, industry professionals reported no or minimum concerns about anxious behaviours or the general well-being of fashion models. Being resilient as a model was perceived as an essential attribute to have by both models and industry professionals as they face recurrent rejection in this industry. These results demonstrate a significant gap in the current understanding of the well-being of fashion models between industry professionals and the models themselves. Findings imply that there is an inherent need for change in the modelling industry to promote and enhance their well-being.

Keywords: body image, fashion industry, modelling, well-being

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Sindhu Govardhan, Kenneth G. Crowther

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Modernisation of the water sector is leading to increased connectivity and integration of emerging technologies with traditional ones, leading to new security risks. The convergence of Information Technology (IT) with Operation Technology (OT) results in solutions that are spread across larger geographic areas, increasingly consist of interconnected Industrial Internet of Things (IIOT) devices and software, rely on the integration of legacy with modern technologies, use of complex supply chain components leading to complex architectures and communication paths. The result is that multiple parties collectively own and operate these emergent technologies, threat actors find new paths to exploit, and traditional cybersecurity controls are inadequate. Our approach is to explicitly identify and draw data flows that cross trust boundaries between owners and operators of various aspects of these emerging and interconnected technologies. On these data flows, we layer potential attack vectors to create a frame of reference for evaluating possible risks against connected technologies. Finally, we identify where existing controls, mitigations, and other remediations exist across industry partners (e.g., suppliers, product vendors, integrators, water utilities, and regulators). From these, we are able to understand potential gaps in security, the roles in the supply chain that are most likely to effectively remediate those security gaps, and test cases to evaluate and strengthen security across these partners. This informs a “shared responsibility” solution that recognises that security is multi-layered and requires collaboration to be successful. This shared responsibility security framework improves visibility, understanding, and control across the entire supply chain, and particularly for those water utilities that are accountable for safe and continuous operations.

Keywords: cyber security, shared responsibility, IIOT, threat modelling

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Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

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Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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Authors: Abeer F. Almarzouki, Christopher A. Brown, Richard J. Brown, Anthony K. P. Jones

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Although relief is commonly assumed to be a direct reflection of pain reduction, it seems to be driven by complex emotional interactions in which pain reduction is only one component. For example, termination of a painful/aversive event may be relieving and rewarding. Accordingly, in this study, whether terminating an aversive negative prediction of pain would be reflected in a greater relief experience was investigated, with a view to separating apart the effects of the manipulation on pain and relief. We use aversive conditioning paradigm to investigate the perception of relief in an aversive (threat) vs. positive context. Participants received positive predictors of a non-painful outcome which were presented within either a congruent positive (non-painful) context or an incongruent threat (painful) context that had been previously conditioned; trials followed by identical laser stimuli on both conditions. Participants were asked to rate the perceived intensity of pain as well as their perception of relief in response to the cue predicting the outcome. Results demonstrated that participants reported more pain in the aversive context compared to the positive context. Conversely, participants reported more relief in the aversive context compares to the neutral context. The rating of relief in the threat context was not correlated with pain reports. The results suggest that relief is not dependant on pain intensity. Consistent with this, relief in the threat context was greater than that in the positive expectancy condition, while the opposite pattern was obtained for the pain ratings. The value of relief in this study is better appreciated in the context of an impending negative threat, which is apparent in the higher pain ratings in the prior negative expectancy compared to the positive expectancy condition. Moreover, the more threatening the context (as manifested by higher unpleasantness/higher state anxiety scores), the more the relief is appreciated. The importance of the study highlights the importance of exploring relief and pain intensity in monitoring separately or evaluating pain-related suffering. The results also illustrate that the perception of painful input may largely be shaped by the context and not necessarily stimulus-related.

Keywords: aversive context, pain, predictions, relief

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Authors: S. Cencek, A. Markun

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Noise assessment methods are regularly used in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects to assess (predict) the expected noise emissions of these projects. Different noise assessment methods could be used. In recent years, we had an opportunity to collaborate in some noise assessment procedures where noise assessments of different laboratories have been performed simultaneously. We identified some significant differences in noise assessment results between laboratories in Slovenia. We estimate that despite good input Georeferenced Data to set up acoustic model exists in Slovenia; there is no clear consensus on methods for predictive noise methods for planned projects. We analyzed input data, methods and results of predictive noise methods for two planned industrial projects, both were done independently by two laboratories. We also analyzed the data, methods and results of two interlaboratory collaborative noise models for two existing noise sources (railway and motorway). In cases of predictive noise modelling, the validations of acoustic models were performed by noise measurements of surrounding existing noise sources, but in varying durations. The acoustic characteristics of existing buildings were also not described identically. The planned noise sources were described and digitized differently. Differences in noise assessment results between different laboratories have ranged up to 10 dBA, which considerably exceeds the acceptable uncertainty ranged between 3 to 6 dBA. Contrary to predictive noise modelling, in cases of collaborative noise modelling for two existing noise sources the possibility to perform the validation noise measurements of existing noise sources greatly increased the comparability of noise modelling results. In both cases of collaborative noise modelling for existing motorway and railway, the modelling results of different laboratories were comparable. Differences in noise modeling results between different laboratories were below 5 dBA, which was acceptable uncertainty set up by interlaboratory noise modelling organizer. The lessons learned from the study were: 1) Predictive noise calculation using formulae from International standard SIST ISO 9613-2: 1997 is not an appropriate method to predict noise emissions of planned projects since due to complexity of procedure they are not used strictly, 2) The noise measurements are important tools to minimize noise assessment errors of planned projects and should be in cases of predictive noise modelling performed at least for validation of acoustic model, 3) National guidelines should be made on the appropriate data, methods, noise source digitalization, validation of acoustic model etc. in order to unify the predictive noise models and their results in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects.

Keywords: environmental noise assessment, predictive noise modelling, spatial planning, noise measurements, national guidelines

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Authors: Mastoor Qubra

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Cyber-attacks have frequently disrupted the critical infrastructures of the major global states and now, cyber threat has become one of the dire security risks for the states across the globe. Recently, ransomware cyber-attacks, wannacry and petya, have affected hundreds of thousands of computer servers and individuals’ private machines in more than hundred countries across Europe, Middle East, Asia, United States and Australia. Although, states are rapidly becoming aware of the destructive nature of this new security threat and counter measures are being taken but states’ isolated efforts would be inadequate to deal with this heinous security challenge, rather a global coordination and cooperation is inevitable in order to develop a credible cyber deterrence policy. Hence, the paper focuses that coordinated global approach is required to deter posed cyber threat. This paper intends to analyze the cyber security counter measures in four dimensions i.e. evaluation of prevalent strategies at bilateral level, initiatives and limitations for cooperation at global level, obstacles to combat cyber terrorism and finally, recommendations to deter the threat by applying tools of deterrence theory. Firstly, it focuses on states’ efforts to combat the cyber threat and in this regard, US-Australia Cyber Security Dialogue is comprehensively illustrated and investigated. Secondly, global partnerships and strategic and analytic role of multinational organizations, particularly United Nations (UN), to deal with the heinous threat, is critically analyzed and flaws are highlighted, for instance; less significance of cyber laws within international law as compared to other conflict prone issues. In addition to this, there are certain obstacles and limitations at national, regional and global level to implement the cyber terrorism counter strategies which are presented in the third section. Lastly, by underlining the gaps and grey areas in the current cyber security counter measures, it aims to apply tools of deterrence theory, i.e. defense, attribution and retaliation, in the cyber realm to contribute towards formulating a credible cyber deterrence strategy at global level. Thus, this study is significant in understanding and determining the inevitable necessity of counter cyber terrorism strategies.

Keywords: attribution, critical infrastructure, cyber terrorism, global cooperation

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Authors: Jugoslav Jokovic, Tijana Dimitrijevic, Nebojsa Doncov

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The goal of this paper is to investigate the possibilities and effectiveness of the TLM (Transmission Line Matrix) method for modelling of up-to-date microstrip antennas with circular geometry that have significant application in modern wireless communication systems. The coaxially fed microstrip antenna configurations with circular patch are analyzed by using the in-house 3DTLMcyl_cw solver based on computational electromagnetic TLM method adapted to the cylindrical grid and enhanced with the compact wire model. Opposed to the widely used rectangular TLM mesh, where a staircase approximation has to be used to describe curved boundaries, precise modelling of circular boundaries can be accomplished in the cylindrical grid irrespective of the mesh resolution. Using the compact wire model incorporated in cylindrical mesh, it is possible to model coaxial feed and include the influence of the real excitation in the antenna model. The conventional and inverted configuration of a coaxially fed circular patch antenna are considered, comparing the resonances obtained using TLM cylindrical model with results reached by the corresponding model in a rectangular grid as well as with experimental ones. Bearing in mind that accuracy of simulated results depends on a relevantly created model, besides structure geometry and dimensions, it is important to consider additional modelling issues, regarding appropriate mesh resolution and a relevant extension of a mesh around the considered structure that would provide convergence of the results.

Keywords: computational electromagnetic, coaxial feed, microstrip antenna, TLM modelling

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: S. Ravindran, Y.Liu, I. Gratchev, D.Jeng

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Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are more common in the northern New South Wales (NSW), Australia. From 2009 to 2017, around 105 rainfall-induced landslides occurred along the road corridors and caused temporary road closures in the northern NSW. Rainfall causing shallow landslides has different distributions of rainfall varying from uniform, normal, decreasing to increasing rainfall intensity. The duration of rainfall varied from one day to 18 days according to historical data. The objective of this research is to analyse slope instability of some of the sites in the northern NSW by varying cumulative rainfall using SLOPE/W and SEEP/W and compare with field data of rainfall causing shallow landslides. The rainfall data and topographical data from public authorities and soil data obtained from laboratory tests will be used for this modelling. There is a likelihood of shallow landslides if the cumulative rainfall is between 100 mm to 400 mm in accordance with field data.

Keywords: landslides, modelling, rainfall, suction

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Authors: Nqobile Muleya, Winston Garira, Godwin Mchau

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Citrus Black Spot (CBS) is a fungal disease that is responsible for huge economical loss and poses a threat to the citrus industry worldwide. We construct a mathematical model framework for citrus black spot between fruits to characterise the dynamics of the disease development, paying attention to the pathogen life cycle. We have made an observation from the model analysis that the initial inoculum from ascomata is very important for disease development and thereafter it is no longer important due to conidia which is responsible for secondary infection. Most importantly, the model indicated that ascospores and conidia are very important parameters in developing citrus black spot within a short distance. The basic reproductive number and its importance in relation to citrus black spot persistence are outlined. A numerical simulation of the model was done to explain the theoretical findings.

Keywords: epidemiological modelling, Guidnardia citricarpa, life cycle stage, fungal, disease development

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Authors: Ali Cheshmehzangi, Ayotunde Dawodu

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In urban planning, Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of the site plays a major role in the multiplicity of performances, from humane living environments to energy performance. When one considers the astounding volume of new housing that is going to be constructed across the globe during the next few decades due to growing urbanisation (e.g. particularly in developing world), it is imperative that we have an empirically grounded grasp of which building configurations are more energy efficient. As a common planning metric, it would be helpful to know exactly how managing FAR connects with energy efficiency. Hence, this study puts together a set of modelling of various FARs for a typical residential compound and address the considerations of energy planning integration in the practice of building configuration and urban planning. Such decision makings at the planning and design stage enable us to provide pathways of optimising urban climate at mesoscale of the built environment, i.e. the neighbourhood or community level. In this study, a comparative study is conducted using Eco-Tect Software, using a case study in the City of Ningbo, China. Findings of the study contribute to identifying scenarios of various FAR use and energy planning at mesoscale. The final results contribute to studies in urban climate, from the perspectives of urban planning, energy planning, and urban modelling.

Keywords: China, energy planning, FAR, floor-area-ratio, mesoscale, urban climate, urban modelling

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Authors: Mohamed Z. M. Duwahir, Shian Gao

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The main objective of this project was to introduce and test a new scheme for parameterization of subsonic aerofoil, using a function called Shape Function. Python programming was used to create a user interactive environment for geometry generation of aerofoil using NACA and Shape Function methodologies. Two aerofoils, NACA 0012 and NACA 1412, were generated using this function. Testing the accuracy of the Shape Function scheme was done by Linear Square Fitting using Python and CFD modelling the aerofoil in Fluent. NACA 0012 (symmetrical aerofoil) was better approximated using Shape Function than NACA 1412 (cambered aerofoil). The second part of the project involved comparing two turbulent models, k-ε and Spalart-Allmaras (SA), in Fluent by modelling the aerofoils NACA 0012 and NACA 1412 in conditions of Reynolds number of 3 × 106. It was shown that SA modelling is better for aerodynamic purpose. The experimental coefficient of lift (Cl) and coefficient of drag (Cd) were compared with empirical wind tunnel data for a range of angle of attack (AOA). As a further step, this project involved drawing and meshing 3D wings in Gambit. The 3D wing flow was solved and compared with 2D aerofoil section experimental results and wind tunnel data.

Keywords: CFD simulation, shape function, turbulent modelling, aerofoil

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Authors: Mrigank Sahai, R. Sri Raghu

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This paper presents the modelling of rocket exhaust plume flow field and exhaust plume impingement in vacuum for the liquid apogee engine and attitude control thrusters of the lunar lander. Analytic formulations for rarefied gas kinetics has been taken as reference for modelling the plume flow field. The plume has been modelled as high speed, collision-less, axi-symmetric gas jet, expanding into vacuum and impinging at a normally set diffusive circular plate. Specular reflections have not been considered for the present study. Different parameters such as number density, temperature, pressure, flow velocity, heat flux etc., have been calculated and have been plotted against and compared to Direct Simulation Monte Carlo results. These analyses have provided important information for the placement of critical optical instruments and design of optimal thermal insulation for the hardware that may come in contact with the thruster exhaust.

Keywords: collision-less gas, lunar lander, plume impingement, rarefied exhaust plume

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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It is widely recognised that the assets portfolio development is helping to enhance economic growth, productivity and competitiveness. While numerous studies and reports certify the positive effect of investments in large infrastructure investments on the local economy, still, the methodology to estimate the contribution in economic development is a challenging issue for researchers and economists. The key question is how to estimate those economic impacts in each economic system. This paper provides a compact and applicable methodological framework providing quantitative results in terms of the overall jobs and income generated into the project life cycle. According to a deterministic mathematical approach, the key variables and the modelling framework are presented. The numerical case study highlights key results for a new motorway project in Greece, which is experienced economic stress for many years, providing the opportunity for comparisons with similar cases.

Keywords: quantitative modelling, economic impact, large transport infrastructure, economic assessment

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

Abstract:

For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Yo Han Choi, Hee Suk Seo, Seung Hwan Ju, Sung Hyu Han

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As currently various portable devices were launched, smart business conducted using them became common. Since smart business can use company-internal resources in an external remote place, user authentication that can identify authentic users is an important factor. Commonly used user authentication is a method of using user ID and Password. In the user authentication using ID and Password, the user should see and enter authentication information him or herself. In this user authentication system depending on the user’s vision, there is the threat of password leaks through snooping in the process which the user enters his or her authentication information. This study designed and produced a user authentication module using an actuator to respond to the snooping threat.

Keywords: actuator, user authentication, security evaluation, haptic actuator

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Authors: Ye Zhang, Chuanjun Liu

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In-service aircraft is exposed to different types of threaten, e.g. bird strike, ground vehicle impact, and run-way debris, or even lightning strike, etc. To satisfy the aircraft damage tolerance design requirements, the designer has to understand the threatening level for different types of the aircraft structures, either metallic or composite. Exposing to low-velocity impacts may produce very serious internal damages such as delaminations and matrix cracks without leaving visible mark onto the impacted surfaces for composite structures. This internal damage can cause significant reduction in the load carrying capacity of structures. The semi-probabilistic method provides a practical and proper approximation to establish the impact-threat based energy cut-off level for the damage tolerance evaluation of the aircraft components. Thus, the probabilistic distribution of impact threat and the realistic impact energy level cut-offs are the essential establishments required for the certification of aircraft composite structures. A new survey of impact threat to civil aircraft in-service has recently been carried out based on field records concerning around 500 civil aircrafts (mainly single aisles) and more than 4.8 million flight hours. In total 1,006 damages caused by low-velocity impact events had been screened out from more than 8,000 records including impact dents, scratches, corrosions, delaminations, cracks etc. The impact threat dependency on the location of the aircraft structures and structural configuration was analyzed. Although the survey was mainly focusing on the metallic structures, the resulting low-energy impact data are believed likely representative to general civil aircraft, since the service environments and the maintenance operations are independent of the materials of the structures. The probability of impact damage occurrence (Po) and impact energy exceedance (Pe) are the two key parameters for describing the statistic distribution of impact threat. With the impact damage events from the survey, Po can be estimated as 2.1x10-4 per flight hour. Concerning the calculation of Pe, a numerical model was developed using the commercial FEA software ABAQUS to backward estimate the impact energy based on the visible damage characteristics. The relationship between the visible dent depth and impact energy was established and validated by drop-weight impact experiments. Based on survey results, Pe was calculated and assumed having a log-linear relationship versus the impact energy. As the product of two aforementioned probabilities, Po and Pe, it is reasonable and conservative to assume Pa=PoxPe=10-5, which indicates that the low-velocity impact events are similarly likely as the Limit Load events. Combing Pa with two probabilities Po and Pe obtained based on the field survey, the cutoff level of realistic impact energy was estimated and valued as 34 J. In summary, a new survey was recently done on field records of civil aircraft to investigate the probabilistic distribution of impact threat. Based on the data, two probabilities, Po and Pe, were obtained. Considering a conservative assumption of Pa, the cutoff energy level for the realistic impact energy has been determined, which provides potential applicability in damage tolerance certification of future civil aircraft.

Keywords: composite structure, damage tolerance, impact threat, probabilistic

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Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

Abstract:

A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

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Authors: Diego Caballero Vélez

Abstract:

In 1997 the Schengen Convention was incorporated in the mainstream of EU law by the Amsterdam Treaty. It came into effect in 1999 with the abolition of internal border controls in the EU, a milestone in the European integration project. In the meantime, due to the Yugoslav wars, nearly 700,000 asylum applications were filed in the European countries provoking a major refugee crisis. During this period, the opening of Eastern Europe fostered more cooperation and policy-making at the EU level in migration issues. Currently, a similar migratory crisis is taking place in Europe. The Syrian war has caused the most massive influx of immigrants in Europe since World War II. Nevertheless, the EU is adopting different migration policies from those implemented during the Yugoslav migration crisis. The current crisis has not led to a common European position but national responses have been offered on migration policies and responsibility for border security and asylum-seekers. A lot of factors can explain this change from a cooperation scenario to a no cooperation one, such as the economic crisis, but this research is focused on the premise that 'threat perception' lies at the core of some states grand strategies towards migration and it also influences in multilateral or unilateral responses. Migration rests at the nexus of three dimensions of security, including geopolitical interests, material production, and internal security. According to some scholars, migration policy is an 'integral instrument' of state grand strategy in that context. Political integration at the EU might be altered with the emergence of existential threats. In other words, some areas of the European cooperation can be transformed when a 'critical juncture' occurs, for instance a migration crisis. In that instance, Member states could see migration as a matter of threat that modifies their national interests and willingness to embrace international cooperation. This research will focus on EU Member states´ perceptions of the 90´s migration crisis and the current one. The goal is to evaluate to what extent the perceptions of threat are one of the main factors for explaining the transition from a cooperation scenario to a no-cooperation one in European asylum and security policies. To analyze threat perception in both migration crisis, some relevant Member states are treated as cases of study and a comparative analysis is carried out based on public opinion polls, public and policy discourse in migration, voting practices and deconstruction of the migration policies themselves both at EU level and a national one.

Keywords: cooperation, migration crisis, national responses, threat perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 216