Search results for: technical indicators

Authors: Nada Souissi, Mourad Mroua

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The main purpose of this study is to examine the interaction between financial asset volatility, economic factors and investor's behavioral indicators related to both the company's and the markets stocks for the period from January 2000 to January2020. Using multiple linear regression and Bayesian Networks modeling, results show a positive and negative relationship between investor's psychology index, economic factors and predicted stock market return. We reveal that the application of the Bayesian Discrete Network contributes to identify the different cause and effect relationships between all economic, financial variables and psychology index.

Keywords: Financial asset return predictability, Economic factors, Investor's psychology index, Bayesian approach, Probabilistic networks, Parametric learning

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Authors: Marco Morini, Nicolandrea Calabrese, Dario Chello

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Despite the international commitment of Algeria towards the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy in the country, the internal energy demand has been continuously growing during the last decade due to the substantial increase of population and of living conditions, which in turn has led to an unprecedented expansion of the residential building sector. The thermal building regulation is the technical document that establishes the calculation framework for the thermal performance of buildings in Algeria, setting up minimum obligatory targets for the thermal performance of new buildings. An update of this regulation is due in the coming years, and this paper discusses some proposals in this regard, with the aim to improve the energy efficiency of the building sector, particularly with regard to social housing. In particular, it proposes a methodology for drafting an energy performance label of new Algerian residential buildings, moving from the results of the thermal compliance verification and sizing of technical systems as defined in the RTB. Such an energy performance label – whose calculation method is briefly described in the paper – aims to raise citizens' awareness of the benefits of energy efficiency. It can represent the first step in a process of integrating technical installations into the calculation of the energy performance of buildings in Algeria.

Keywords: building, energy certification, energy efficiency, social housing, international cooperation, Mediterranean region

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Charungthai Dejthevaporn, Orapitchaya Krairit, Piyameth Dilokthornsakul, Devi Mohan, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Although an increase in the burden of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is evident worldwide, knowledge of costs and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) associated with AD in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) is still lacking. We, therefore, aimed to collect real-world cost and HR-QoL data, and investigate their associations with multiple disease-severity indicators among AD patients in Thailand. Methods: We recruited AD patients aged ≥ 60 years accompanied by their caregivers at a university-affiliated tertiary hospital. A one-time structured interview was conducted to collect disease-severity indicators, HR-QoL and caregiving information using standardized tools. The hospital’s database was used to retrieve healthcare resource utilization occurred over 6 months preceding the interview date. Costs were annualized and stratified based on cognitive status. Generalized linear models were employed to evaluate determinants of costs and HR-QoL. Results: Among 148 community-dwelling patients, average annual total societal costs of AD care were 8,014 US$ [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 7,295 US$ - 8,844 US$] per patient. Total costs of patients with severe stage (9,860 US$; 95% CI: 8,785 US$ - 11,328 US$) were almost twice as high as those of mild stage (5,524 US$; 95% CI: 4,649 US$ - 6,593 US$). The major cost driver was direct medical costs, particularly those incurred by AD prescriptions. Functional status was the strongest determinant for both total costs and patient’s HR-QoL (p-value < 0.001). Conclusions: Our real-world findings suggest the distinct major cost driver which results from expensive AD treatment, emphasizing the demand for country-specific cost evidence. Increases in cognitive and functional status are significantly associated with decreases in total costs of AD care and improvement on patient’s HR-QoL.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, associations, costs, disease-severity indicators, health-related quality of life

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Authors: Heribert R. Kaijage, Samuel N. A. Codjoe, Simon H. D. Mamuya, Mangi J. Ezekiel

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There is strong evidence that climate has changed significantly affecting various sectors including public health. The recommended feasible solution is adopting development trajectories which combine both mitigation and adaptation measures for improving resilience pathways. This approach demands a consideration for complex interactions between climate and social-ecological systems. While other sectors such as agriculture and water have developed climate resilience indices, the public health sector in Tanzania is still lagging behind. The aim of this study was to find out how can we use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) linked with Remote Sensing (RS) technology and metrological information as tools to inform climate change resilient development and evaluation for the health sector. Methodological review was conducted whereby a number of studies were content analyzed to find appropriate indicators and indices for climate resilience household and their integration approach. These indicators were critically reviewed, listed, filtered and their sources determined. Preliminary identification and ranking of indicators were conducted using participatory approach of pairwise weighting by selected national stakeholders from meeting/conferences on human health and climate change sciences in Tanzania. DHS datasets were retrieved from Measure Evaluation project, processed and critically analyzed for possible climate change indicators. Other sources for indicators of climate change exposure were also identified. For the purpose of preliminary reporting, operationalization of selected indicators was discussed to produce methodological approach to be used in resilience comparative analysis study. It was found that household climate resilient index depends on the combination of three indices namely Household Adaptive and Mitigation Capacity (HC), Household Health Sensitivity (HHS) and Household Exposure Status (HES). It was also found that, DHS alone cannot complement resilient evaluation unless integrated with other data sources notably flooding data as a measure of vulnerability, remote sensing image of Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Metrological data (deviation from rainfall pattern). It can be concluded that if these indices retrieved from DHS data sets are computed and scientifically integrated can produce single climate resilience index and resilience maps could be generated at different spatial and time scales to enhance targeted interventions for climate resilient development and evaluations. However, further studies are need to test for the sensitivity of index in resilience comparative analysis among selected regions.

Keywords: climate change, resilience, remote sensing, demographic and health surveys

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Authors: Ana Paula Lisboa Sohn, Filipa Dionísio Vieria, Nelson Casarotto, Idaulo José Cunha

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This paper aims at identifying and analyzing the knowledge transmission channels in textile and clothing clusters located in Brazil and in Europe. Primary data was obtained through interviews with key individuals. The collection of primary data was carried out based on a questionnaire with ten categories of indicators of knowledge transmission. Secondary data was also collected through a literature review and through international organizations sites. Similarities related to the use of the main transmission channels of knowledge are observed in all cases. The main similarities are: influence of suppliers of machinery, equipment and raw materials; imitation of products and best practices; training promoted by technical institutions and businesses; and cluster companies being open to acquire new knowledge. The main differences lie in the relationship between companies, where in Europe the intensity of this relationship is bigger when compared to Brazil. The differences also occur in importance and frequency of the relationship with the government, with the cultural environment, and with the activities of research and development. It is also found factors that reduce the importance of geographical proximity in transmission of knowledge, and in generating trust and the establishment of collaborative behavior.

Keywords: industrial clusters, interorganizational learning, knowledge transmission channels, textile and clothing industry

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Authors: Mohd Yusri Ibrahim

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Although it is known that interpersonal skills are essential for personal development, the debate however continues as to how to measure those skills, especially in youths. This study was conducted to develop a measurement model of interpersonal skills by suggesting three construct namely personal, skills and relationship; six function namely self, perception, listening, conversation, emotion and conflict management; and 30 behaviours as indicators. This cross-sectional survey by questionnaires was applied in east side of peninsula of Malaysia for 150 respondents, and analyzed by structural equation modelling (SEM) by AMOS. The suggested constructs, functions and indicators were consider accepted as measurement elements by observing on regression weight for standard loading, average variance extracted (AVE) for convergent validity, square root of AVE for discriminant validity, composite reliability (CR), and at least three fit indexes for model fitness. Finally, a measurement model of interpersonal skill for youth was successfully developed.

Keywords: interpersonal communication, interpersonal skill, youth, communication skill

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Authors: EMMANUEL DWAMENA SASU

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International climate policy actions require countries under Paris Agreement to design instruments, provide support (financial and technical), and strengthen institutional capacity with tendency to transcending policy formulation to implementation and sustainability. Changes associated with moisture depletion has been a growing phenomenon; especially in developing countries with projected global GDP drop from 7% to 2% between 2005 and 2050. These developments have potential to adversely affect food production in feeding the growing world population, with corresponding rise in global hunger. Incongruously, there is global absence of a harmonized policy direction; capable of providing the required indicators on climate policies for monitoring sustainability of international agricultural development projects. We conduct extensive review and synthesis on existing limitations on global climate policy governance, agricultural food security and sustainability of international agricultural development projects, and conjecture the role of non-state and sub-national climate stakeholder engagements, and monitoring and evaluation strategies for improved climate policy action for sustaining international agricultural development projects.

Keywords: climate policy, agriculture, development projects, sustainability

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Authors: Ekow A. Kwofie, Emmanuel K. Anto, Godfred Mensah

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In this paper, CYME Distribution software has been used to assess the impacts of solar Photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) plant on the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) 33 kV sub-transmission network at different PV penetration levels. As ECG begins to encourage DG PV interconnections within its network, there has been the need to assess the impacts on the sub-transmission losses and voltage contribution. In Tema, a city in Accra - Ghana, ECG has a 33 kV sub-transmission network made up of 20 No. 33 kV buses that was modeled. Three different locations were chosen: The source bus, a bus along the sub-transmission radial network and a bus at the tail end to determine the optimal location for DG PV interconnection. The optimal location was determined based on sub-transmission technical losses and voltage impact. PV capacities at different penetration levels were modeled at each location and simulations performed to determine the optimal PV penetration level. Interconnection at a bus along (or in the middle of) the sub-transmission network offered the highest benefits at an optimal PV penetration level of 80%. At that location, the maximum voltage improvement of 0.789% on the neighboring 33 kV buses and maximum loss reduction of 6.033% over the base case scenario were recorded. Hence, the optimal location for DG PV integration within the 33 kV sub-transmission utility network is at a bus along the sub-transmission radial network.

Keywords: distributed generation photovoltaic (DG PV), optimal location, penetration level, sub–transmission network

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Authors: Henrie Yunianto, Dermawan Wibisono

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PT. XYZ is a family business (private company) in Indonesia that provide an educational program and consultation services. Since its establishment in 2011, the company has run without any strategic management system implemented. Though the company could survive until now. The management of PT. XYZ sees the business opportunity for such product is huge, even though the targeted market is very specific (niche), the volume is large (due to large population of Indonesia) and numbers of competitors are low (now). It can be said if the product life cycle is in between ‘Introduction stage’ and ‘growth’ stage. It is observed that nowadays the new entrants (competitors) are increasing, thus PT. XYZ consider reacting in facing the intense business rivalry by conducting the business in an appropriate manner. A Performance Management System is important to be implemented in accordance with the business sustainability and growth. The framework of Performance Management System chosen is Integrated Performance Management System (IPMS). IPMS framework has the advantages of its simplicity, linkage between its business variables and indicators where the company can see the connections between all factors measured. IPMS framework consists of perspectives: (1) Business Result, (2) Internal Processes, (3) Resource Availability. Variables and indicators were examined through deep analysis of the business external and internal environments, Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat (SWOT) analysis, Porter’s five forces analysis. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis was then used to quantify the weight of each variable/indicators. AHP is needed since in this study, PT. XYZ, the data of existing performance indicator was not available. Later, where the IPMS is implemented, the real data measured can be examined to determine the weight factor of each indicators using correlation analysis (or other methods). In this study of IPMS design for PT. XYZ, the analysis shows that with current company goals, along with the AHP methodology, the critical indicators for each perspective are: (1) Business results: Customer satisfaction and Employee satisfaction, (2) Internal process: Marketing performance, Supplier quality, Production quality, Continues improvement; (3) Resources Availability: Leadership and company culture & value, Personal Competences, Productivity. Company and/or organization require performance management system to help them in achieving their vision and mission. Company strategy will be effectively defined and addressed by using performance management system. Integrated Performance Management System (IPMS) framework and AHP analysis help us in quantifying the factors which influence the business output expected.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, business strategy, differentiation strategy, integrated performance management system

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Authors: Ashley Venerable, Rosario Tatlonghari

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This study identified how college deaf students of Bartimaeus Center for Alternative Learning in Tiaong, Quezon, Philippines view development using visual communication techniques and generating themes from responses. Complete enumeration was employed. Guided by Constructivist Theory of Perception, past experiences and stored information influenced perception. These themes of development emerged: social development; pleasant environment; interpersonal relationships; availability of resources; employment; infrastructure development; values; and peace and security. Using the National Economic and Development Authority development indicators, findings showed the deaf students’ views on development were similar from the mainstream views. Responses also became more meaningful through visual communication techniques.

Keywords: deaf, development, perception, development indicators, visual communication

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Authors: Munisath Khandoker, Stephan Haefele, Andy Gregory

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Extracellular enzymes play a key role in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition and nutrient cycling and are known indicators for soil health; however, it is not understood how these enzymes respond to different land uses and their relationships to other soil properties have not been extensively reviewed. The relationships among the activities of three soil enzymes: β-glucosaminidase (NAG), phosphomonoesterase (PHO) and β-glucosidase (GLU), were examined. The impact of soil organic amendments, soil types and land management on soil enzyme activities were reviewed, and it was hypothesized that soils with increased SOC have increased enzyme activity. Long-term experiments at Rothamsted Research Woburn and Harpenden sites in the UK were used to evaluate how different management practices affect enzyme activity involved in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in the soil. Samples were collected from soils with different organic treatments such as straw, farmyard manure (FYM), compost additions, cover crops and permanent grass cover to assess whether SOC can be linked with increased levels of enzymatic activity and what influence, if any, enzymatic activity has on total C and N in the soil. Investigating the interactions of important enzymes with soil characteristics and SOC can help to better understand the health of soils. Studies on long-term experiments with known histories and large datasets can better help with this. SOC tends to decrease during land use changes from natural ecosystems to agricultural systems; therefore, it is imperative that agricultural lands find ways to increase and/or maintain SOC in the soil.

Keywords: biological soil health indicators, extracellular enzymes, soil health, soil, microbiology

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Authors: Adinarayana Badveeti, Mohammad Shafi Mir

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In Srinagar City, in India, traffic congestion is a condition on transport networks that occurs as use increases and is characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queuing. Traffic congestion is conventionally measured using indicators such as roadway level-of-service, the Travel Time Index and their variants. Several measures have been taken in order to counteract congestion like road pricing, car pooling, improved traffic management, etc. While new road construction can temporarily relieve congestion in the longer term, it simply encourages further growth in car traffic through increased travel and a switch away from public transport. The full paper report, on which this abstract is based, aims to provide policymakers and technical staff with the real-time data, conceptual framework and guidance on some of the engineering tools necessary to manage congestion in such a way as to reduce its overall impact on individuals, families, communities, and societies dynamic, affordable, liveable and attractive urban regions will never be free of congestion. Road transport policies, however, should seek to manage congestion on a cost-effective basis with the aim of reducing the burden that excessive congestion imposes upon travellers and urban dwellers throughout the urban road network.

Keywords: traffic congestion, modeling, traffic management, travel time index

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Authors: Rawan A. Abdelrazeq, Ahmed M. Khalafallah, Nabil A. Kartam

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Selection of competent contractors for construction projects is usually accomplished through competitive bidding or negotiated contracting in which the contract bid price is the basic criterion for selection. The evaluation of contractor’s safety performance is still not a typical criterion in the selection process, despite the existence of various safety prequalification procedures. There is a critical need for practical and automated systems that enable owners and decision makers to evaluate contractor safety performance, among other important contractor selection criteria. These systems should ultimately favor safety-conscious contractors to be selected by the virtue of their past good safety records and current safety programs. This paper presents an exploratory sequential mixed-methods approach to develop a framework for an automated decision support system that evaluates contractor safety performance based on a multitude of indicators and metrics that have been identified through a comprehensive review of construction safety research, and a survey distributed to domain experts. The framework is developed in three phases: (1) determining the indicators that depict contractor current and past safety performance; (2) soliciting input from construction safety experts regarding the identified indicators, their metrics, and relative significance; and (3) designing a decision support system using relational database models to integrate the identified indicators and metrics into a system that assesses and rates the safety performance of contractors. The proposed automated system is expected to hold several advantages including: (1) reducing the likelihood of selecting contractors with poor safety records; (2) enhancing the odds of completing the project safely; and (3) encouraging contractors to exert more efforts to improve their safety performance and practices in order to increase their bid winning opportunities which can lead to significant safety improvements in the construction industry. This should prove useful to decision makers and researchers, alike, and should help improve the safety record of the construction industry.

Keywords: construction safety, contractor selection, decision support system, relational database

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Authors: Hicham Amine, Abdelouahab Mesnaoui

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Electronic data interchange EDI is the computer-to-computer exchange of structured business information. This information typically takes the form of standardized electronic business documents, such as invoices, purchase orders, bills of lading, and so on. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact EDI might have on supply chain and typically on customer satisfaction keeping in mind the constraints the organization might face. This study included 139 subject matter experts (SMEs) who participated by responding to a survey that was distributed. 85% responded that they are extremely for the implementation while 10% were neutral and 5% were against the implementation. From the quality assurance department, we have got 75% from the clients agreed to move on with the change whereas 10% stayed neutral and finally 15% were against the change. From the legal department where 80% of the answers were for the implementation and 10% of the participants stayed neutral whereas the last 10% were against it. The survey consisted of 40% male and 60% female (sex-ratio (F/M=1,5), who had chosen to participate. Our survey also contained 3 categories in terms of technical background where 80% are from technical background and 15% were from nontechnical background and 5% had some average technical background. This study examines the impact of EDI on customer satisfaction which is the primary hypothesis and justifies the importance of the implementation which enhances the customer satisfaction.

Keywords: electronic data interchange, supply chain, subject matter experts, customer satisfaction

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Authors: Otto Kakhidze, Hoda Alkhzaimi, Adam Ramey, Nasir Memon

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This paper provides an alternative, cyber security based a conceptual framework for the ethics of automated warfare. The large body of work produced on fully or partially autonomous warfare systems tends to overlook malicious security factors as in the possibility of technical attacks on these systems when it comes to the moral and legal decision-making. The argument provides a risk-oriented justification to why technical malicious risks cannot be dismissed in legal, ethical and policy considerations when warfare models are being implemented and deployed. The assumptions of the paper are supported by providing a broader model that contains the perspective of technological vulnerabilities through the lenses of the Game Theory, Just War Theory as well as standard and non-standard defense ethics. The paper argues that a conventional risk-benefit analysis without considering ethical factors is insufficient for making legal and policy decisions on automated warfare. This approach will provide the substructure for security and defense experts as well as legal scholars, ethicists and decision theorists to work towards common justificatory grounds that will accommodate the technical security concerns that have been overlooked in the current legal and policy models.

Keywords: automated warfare, ethics of automation, inherent hijacking, security vulnerabilities, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Nicole Kalemba, Fernando Campa-Planas, Ana-Beatriz Hernández-Lara, Maria Victória Sánchez-Rebull

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The purpose of this paper is to determine the effects of service quality on US airlines’ economic performance. In order to cover this goal, it has been considered four different indexes of service quality in the air transportation industry, and also two indicators of economic performance, revenues and return on investment (ROI). Data from American airline companies over a period that covers from 2006 to 2013 have been used in order to determine if airlines’ profitability increases when service quality improves. Considering the effects on airlines’ profitability, the results confirm the positive and significant influence of service quality on the ROI of the companies in our study. Meanwhile, a non-significant effect was found for airline revenues related to quality. No previous research in this area has been done and these findings could encourage airline companies to invest in quality as far as this policy can have a return on their profitability.

Keywords: airlines, economic performance, key performance indicators, quality

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes, farmers' approaches to risk management

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Authors: A. Esra İdemen, Sinan M. Şener, Emrah Acar

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The technological paradigm of the disaster management field, especially in the case of governmental intervention strategies, is generally based on rapid and flexible accommodation solutions. From various technical solution patterns used to address the immediate housing needs of disaster victims, the adaptive re-use of existing buildings can be considered to be both low-cost and practical. However, there is a scarcity of analytical methods to screen, select and adapt buildings to help decision makers in cases of emergency. Following an extensive literature review, this paper aims to highlight key points and problem areas associated with the adaptive re-use of buildings within the disaster management context. In other disciplines such as real estate management, the adaptive re-use potential (ARP) of existing buildings is typically based on the prioritization of a set of technical and non-technical criteria which are then weighted to arrive at an economically viable investment decision. After a disaster, however, the assessment of the ARP of buildings requires consideration of different/additional layers of analysis which stem from general disaster management principles and the peculiarities of different types of disasters, as well as of their victims. In this paper, a discussion of the development of an adaptive re-use potential (ARP) assessment model is presented. It is thought that governmental and non-governmental decision makers who are required to take quick decisions to accommodate displaced masses following disasters are likely to benefit from the implementation of such a model.

Keywords: adaptive re-use of buildings, disaster management, temporary housing, assessment model

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Authors: Elahe Kamari

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Research on translation process has been conducted for more than 20 years, investigating various issues and using different research methodologies. Most recently, researchers have started to use eye tracking to study translation processes. They believed that the observable, measurable data that can be gained from eye tracking are indicators of unobservable cognitive processes happening in the translators’ mind during translation tasks. The aim of this study was to investigate directionality in translation processes through using eye tracking. The following hypotheses were tested: 1) processing the target text requires more cognitive effort than processing the source text, in both directions of translation; 2) L2 translation tasks on the whole require more cognitive effort than L1 tasks; 3) cognitive resources allocated to the processing of the source text is higher in L1 translation than in L2 translation; 4) cognitive resources allocated to the processing of the target text is higher in L2 translation than in L1 translation; and 5) in both directions non-professional translators invest more cognitive effort in translation tasks than do professional translators. The performance of a group of 30 male professional translators was compared with that of a group of 30 male non-professional translators. All the participants translated two comparable texts one into their L1 (Persian) and the other into their L2 (English). The eye tracker measured gaze time, average fixation duration, total task length and pupil dilation. These variables are assumed to measure the cognitive effort allocated to the translation task. The data derived from eye tracking only confirmed the first hypothesis. This hypothesis was confirmed by all the relevant indicators: gaze time, average fixation duration and pupil dilation. The second hypothesis that L2 translation tasks requires allocation of more cognitive resources than L1 translation tasks has not been confirmed by all four indicators. The third hypothesis that source text processing requires more cognitive resources in L1 translation than in L2 translation and the fourth hypothesis that target text processing requires more cognitive effort in L2 translation than L1 translation were not confirmed. It seems that source text processing in L2 translation can be just as demanding as in L1 translation. The final hypothesis that non-professional translators allocate more cognitive resources for the same translation tasks than do the professionals was partially confirmed. One of the indicators, average fixation duration, indicated higher cognitive effort-related values for professionals.

Keywords: translation processes, eye tracking, cognitive resources, directionality

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Authors: Asnawi Mohd Busrah, Au Mau Teng, Tan Chin Hooi, Lau Chee Chong

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This paper describes value based planning (VBP) methodology incorporating risk assessment as an enhanced and more practical approach to evaluate distribution network projects in Peninsular Malaysia. Assessment indicators associated with economics, performance and risks are formulated to evaluate distribution projects to quantify their benefits against investment. The developed methodology is implemented in a web-based software customized to capture investment and network data, compute assessment indicators and rank the proposed projects according to their benefits. Value based planning approach addresses economic factors in the power distribution planning assessment, so as to minimize cost solution to the power utility while at the same time provide maximum benefits to customers.

Keywords: value based planning, distribution network, value of loss load (VoLL), energy not served (ENS)

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Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

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This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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Authors: Tazeen Fatima

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Use of project management in web & software development projects is very significant. It has been observed that even with the application of effective project management, projects usually do not complete their lifecycle and fail. To minimize these failures, key performance indicators have been introduced in previous studies to counter project failures. However, there are always gaps and problems in the KPIs identified. Despite of incessant efforts at technical and managerial levels, projects still fail. There is no substantial approach to identify and avoid these failures in the very beginning of the project lifecycle. In this study, we aim to answer these research problems by analyzing the concept of predictive analytics which is a specialized technology and is very easy to use in this era of computation. Project organizations can use data gathering, compute power, and modern tools to render efficient Predictions. The research aims to identify such a predictive analytics approach. The core objective of the study was to reduce failures and introduce effective implementation of project management principles. Existing predictive analytics methodologies, tools and solution providers were also analyzed. Relevant data was gathered from projects and was analyzed via predictive techniques to make predictions well advance in time to render effective project management in web & software development industry.

Keywords: project management, predictive analytics, predictive analytics methodology, project failures

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Authors: Jabulani Mtshiya, Yasmin Sultana-Muchindu

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Technical and Vocational Education (TVE) is the platform on which developed nations have built their economic foundations, which have led them to attain high standards of living. Zambia has put up educational systems aimed at empowering the citizens and building the economy. Nations such as China, the United States America, and several other European nations are such examples. Despite having programs in Technical and Vocations Education, the Zambian economy still lags, and the industries contributing merger to Gross Domestic Product. This study addresses the significance of Technical and Vocational Education and how it can improve the livelihood of citizens. It addresses aspects of development and productivity and highlights the problems faced by learners in Lusaka and Southern provinces in Zambia. The study employed qualitative research design in data collection and a method of descriptive data analysis was used in order to bring out the description of the prevailing state of affairs in TVE in the perspective of learners. This meant that the respondents indicated their views and thoughts toward TVE. The study collected information through research questionnaires. The findings showed that TVE is regarded important by government and various stakeholders and that it is also regarded important by learners. The findings also showed that stakeholders and society need to pay particular attention to the development of TVE in order to improve the livelihood of citizens and to improve the national economy. Just like any other developed nation that used TVE to develop their industries, Zambia also has the potential to train its youth and to equip them with the necessary skills required for them to contribute positively to the growth of industries and the growth of the economy. Deliberate steps need to be taken by the government and stakeholders to apply and make firm the TVE policies that were laid. At the end of the study recommendations were made; that government should put in the right measures in order to harness the potential at hand. Further on, recommendations were made to carry out this research at the national level and also to conduct it using the quantitative research method, and that government should be consistent to its obligations of funding and maintaining TVE institutions in order for them to be able to operate effectively.

Keywords: education, technical, training, vocational

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Authors: Oliver Ikechukwu Inyiama, Boniface Uche Ugwuanyi

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The aim of the research is to evaluate the key financial performance indicators that help both managers and their shareholders of Nigerian Banks to determine the appropriate dividend payout to their ordinary shareholders in an accounting year. Profitability, total asset, and earnings of commercial banks were selected as key performance indicators in Nigeria Banking Sector. They represent the independent variables of the study while dividend per share is the proxy for the dividend paid on ordinary shares which represent the dependent variable. The effect of profitability, total asset and earnings on dividend per share were evaluated through the ordinary least square method of multiple regression analysis. Test for normality of frequency distribution was conducted through descriptive statistics such as Jacque Bera Statistic, skewness and kurtosis. Rate of dividend payout was subsequently applied as an alternate dependent variable to test for robustness of the earlier results. The 64% adjusted R-squared of the pooled data indicates that profitability, total asset, and earnings explain the variation in dividend per share during the period under research while the remaining 36% variation in dividend per share could be explained by changes in other variables not captured by this study as well as the error term. The study concentrated on four leading Nigeria Commercial Banks namely; First Bank of Nigeria Plc, GTBank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith International Bank Plc. Dividend per share was found to be positively affected by total assets and earnings of the commercial banks. However, profitability which was proxied by profit after tax had a negative effect on dividend per share. The implication of the findings is that commercial banks in Nigeria pay more dividend when they are having a dwindling fortune in order to retain the confidence of the shareholders provided their gross earnings and size is on the increase. Therefore, the management and board of directors of Nigeria commercial banks should apply decent marketing strategies to enhance earnings through investment in profitable ventures for an improved dividend payout rate.

Keywords: assets, banks, indicators, performance, profitability, shares

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Authors: Mo-Se Lee, Cheol-Hwi Ahn, Kee-Young Kwahk, Hyunchul Ahn

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Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as effective solution for recognizing and classifying images, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems in various fields. In this study, we try to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. In specific, we propose to apply CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (up or down) by using a graph as its input. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics a person who looks at the graph and predicts whether the trend will go up or down. Our proposed model consists of four steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into 5 days, 10 days, 15 days, and 20 days. And then, it creates graphs for each interval in step 2. In the next step, CNN classifiers are trained using the graphs generated in the previous step. In step 4, it optimizes the hyper parameters of the trained model by using the validation dataset. To validate our model, we will apply it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 1,986 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). The experimental dataset will include 14 technical indicators such as CCI, Momentum, ROC and daily closing price of KOSPI200 of Korean stock market.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, Korean stock market, stock market prediction

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Authors: Reza Dehghani Bidgoli

Abstract:

Information on different rangeland plants’ nutritive values at various phonological stages is important in rangelands management. This information helps rangeland managers to choose proper grazing times to achieve higher animal performance without detrimental effects on the rangeland vegetations. Effects of various plant parts’ phonological stages and vegetation types on reserve carbohydrates and forage quality indicators were investigated during the 2009 and 2010. Plant samples were collected in a completely randomized block (CRB) design. The species included, grasses (Secale montanum and Festuco ovina), forbs (Lotus corniculatus and Sanguisorba minor), and shrubs (Kochia prosterata and Salsola rigida). Aerial plant parts’ samples were oven-dried at 80oC for 24 hours, then analyzed for soluble carbohydrates, crude protein (CP), acid detergent fiber (ADF), dry matter digestible (DMD), and metabolizable energy (ME). Results showed that plants at the seedling stage had more reserve carbohydrates and from the three vegetation types (grass, forbs, and shrub), forbs contained more soluble carbohydrates compared to the other two (grasses and shrubs). Differences in soluble carbohydrate contents of different species at various phonological stages in 2 years were statistically significant. The forage quality indicators (CP, ADF, DMD, and ME) in different species, in different vegetation types, in the 2 years were statistically significant, except for the CP.

Keywords: grazing, soluble carbohydrate, protein, fiber, metabolizeable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Zhaojunfeng

Abstract:

Driven by the national policy of "East Data and Western Calculation", the computing first network will attract a new wave of development. As the foundation of the development of the computing first network, the computing force bearer network has become the key direction of technology research and development in the industry. This article will analyze typical computing force application scenarios and bearing requirements and sort out the SLA indicators of computing force applications. On this basis, this article carries out research and discussion on the key technologies of computing force bearer network in a slice packet network, and finally, gives evolution policy for SPN computing force bearer network to support the development of SPN computing force bearer network technology and network deployment.

Keywords: component-computing force bearing, bearing requirements of computing force application, dual-SLA indicators for computing force applications, SRv6, evolution strategies

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Authors: Mohammad Moonesun

Abstract:

One of the most important future technologies is related to solar Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). In this technical paper, some aspects of solar winged AUV design are mentioned. The case study is for Arya project. The submarine movement cyclograms, weight quotas for internal equipment, hydrodynamic test results are mentioned, and some other technical notes are discussed here. The main body is the SUBOFF type and has two hydroplanes on the both sides of the body with the NACA0015 cross section. On these two hydroplanes, two 50-W photovoltaic panel will be mounted. Four small hydroplanes with the same cross section of the NACA0015 are arranged at the stern of the body at a 90° angle to each other. This test is performed in National Iranian Marine Laboratory with the length of 402 m.

Keywords: AUV, solar, model test, hydrodynamic resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Tefera Kebede Leyu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to estimate the impact of LIVES project participation on the level of technical efficiency of farm households in three regions of Ethiopia. We used household-level data gathered by IRLI between February and April 2014 for the year 2013(retroactive). Data on 1,905 (754 intervention and 1, 151 control groups) sample households were analyzed using STATA software package version 14. Efforts were made to combine stochastic frontier modeling with impact evaluation methodology using the Heckman (1979) two-stage model to deal with possible selectivity bias arising from unobservable characteristics in the stochastic frontier model. Results indicate that farmers in the two groups are not efficient and operate below their potential frontiers i.e., there is a potential to increase crop productivity through efficiency improvements in both groups. In addition, the empirical results revealed selection bias in both groups of farmers confirming the justification for the use of selection bias corrected stochastic frontier model. It was also found that intervention farmers achieved higher technical efficiency scores than the control group of farmers. Furthermore, the selectivity bias-corrected model showed a different technical efficiency score for the intervention farmers while it more or less remained the same for that of control group farmers. However, the control group of farmers shows a higher dispersion as measured by the coefficient of variation compared to the intervention counterparts. Among the explanatory variables, the study found that farmer’s age (proxy to farm experience), land certification, frequency of visit to improved seed center, farmer’s education and row planting are important contributing factors for participation decisions and hence technical efficiency of farmers in the study areas. We recommend that policies targeting the design of development intervention programs in the agricultural sector focus more on providing farmers with on-farm visits by extension workers, provision of credit services, establishment of farmers’ training centers and adoption of modern farm technologies. Finally, we recommend further research to deal with this kind of methodological framework using a panel data set to test whether technical efficiency starts to increase or decrease with the length of time that farmers participate in development programs.

Keywords: impact evaluation, efficiency analysis and selection bias, stochastic frontier model, Heckman-two step

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Authors: O. Arikan, C. Kocatepe, G. Ucar, Y. Hacialiefendioglu

Abstract:

In this paper, influence of harmonics on medium voltage distribution system of Bogazici Electricity Distribution Inc. (BEDAS) which takes place at Istanbul/Turkey is investigated. A ring network consisting of residential loads is taken into account for this study. Real system parameters and measurement results are used for simulations. Also, probable working conditions of the system are analyzed for %50, %75 and %100 loading of transformers with similar harmonic contents. Results of the study are exhibited the influence of nonlinear loads on %THDV, P.F. and technical losses of the medium voltage distribution system.

Keywords: distribution system, harmonic, technical losses, power factor, total harmonic distortion, residential load, medium voltage

Procedia PDF Downloads 545