Search results for: taylor rule

Authors: Yosra Baaziz, Moez Labidi

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Given limited research on monetary policy rules in revolutionary countries, this paper challenges the suitability of the Taylor rule in characterizing the monetary policy behavior of the Tunisian Central Bank (BCT), especially in turbulent times. More specifically, we investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process and examine the validity of such nonlinear Taylor rule as a robust rule for conducting monetary policy in Tunisia. Using quarterly data from 1998:Q4 to 2013:Q4 to analyze the movement of nominal short-term interest rate of the BCT, we find that the nonlinear Taylor rule improves its performance with the advent of special events providing thus a better description of the Tunisian interest rate setting. In particular, our results show that the adoption of an appropriate nonlinear approach leads to a reduction in the errors of 150 basis points in 1999 and 2009, and 60 basis points in 2011, relative to the linear approach.

Keywords: policy rule, central bank, exchange rate, taylor rule, nonlinearity

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Authors: T. Bouchabchoub, A. Bendahmane, A. Haouriqui, N. Attou

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This paper presents simulation results of Forex predicting model equations in order to give approximately a prevision of interest rates. First, Hall-Taylor (HT) equations have been used with Taylor rule (TR) to adapt them to European and American Forex Markets. Indeed, initial Taylor Rule equation is conceived for all Forex transactions in every States: It includes only one equation and six parameters. Here, the model has been used with Hall-Taylor equations, initially including twelve equations which have been reduced to only three equations. Analysis has been developed on the following base macroeconomic variables: Real change rate, investment wages, anticipated inflation, realized inflation, real production, interest rates, gap production and potential production. This model has been used to specifically study the impact of an inflation shock on macroeconomic director interest rates.

Keywords: interest rate, Forex, Taylor rule, production, European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve System (FED).

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Authors: Reza Moosavi Mohseni, Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao

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The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward, and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.

Keywords: taylor rule, monetary system, chaos theory, lyapunov exponent, GMM estimator

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Authors: Wael Bakhit, Salma Bakhit

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This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirical examination of the financial sector was made to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and a look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build-up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been a source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Keywords: Taylor rule, financial imbalances, central banks, econometrics

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Authors: Yuzuru Mitsui, Takashi Ikegami

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The exponents of Taylor’s law in deterministic chaotic systems are computed, and their meanings are intensively discussed. Taylor’s law is the scaling relationship between the mean and variance (in both space and time) of population abundance, and this law is known to hold in a variety of ecological time series. The exponents found in the temporal Taylor’s law are different from those of the spatial Taylor’s law. The temporal Taylor’s law is calculated on the time series from the same locations (or the same initial states) of different temporal phases. However, with the spatial Taylor’s law, the mean and variance are calculated from the same temporal phase sampled from different places. Most previous studies were done with stochastic models, but we computed the temporal and spatial Taylor’s law in deterministic systems. The temporal Taylor’s law evaluated using the same initial state, and the spatial Taylor’s law was evaluated using the ensemble average and variance. There were two main discoveries from this work. First, it is often stated that deterministic systems tend to have the value two for Taylor’s exponent. However, most of the calculated exponents here were not two. Second, we investigated the relationships between chaotic features measured by the Lyapunov exponent, the correlation dimension, and other indexes with Taylor’s exponents. No strong correlations were found; however, there is some relationship in the same model, but with different parameter values, and we will discuss the meaning of those results at the end of this paper.

Keywords: chaos, density effect, population dynamics, Taylor’s law

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Authors: Ahmed Esmael, Ali El Shrif

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In this study the instability problem of a modified Taylor-Couette flow between two vertical coaxial cylinders of radius R1, R2 is considered. The modification is based on the wavy shape of the inner cylinder surface, where inner cylinders with different surface amplitude and wavelength are used. The study aims to discover the effect of the inner surface geometry on the instability phenomenon that undergoes Taylor-Couette flow. The study reveals that the transition processes depends strongly on the amplitude and wavelength of the inner cylinder surface and resulting in flow instabilities that are strongly different from that encountered in the case of the classical Taylor-Couette flow.

Keywords: hydrodynamic instability, Modified Taylor-Couette Flow, turbulence, Taylor vortices

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Authors: Grace Titilayo, Kolawole-Amao

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Influence and authority of law within society should be respected by all and sundry regardless of individual status. Rule of law implies that every citizen is subject to the law. In a society governed by the rule of law, government and its officials and agents are also held subject to and accountable under the law. Law should not be employed to suit individual tenets. Where the rule of law operates, the government is the government of law and not of men. Corruption is a factor that kills the growth of the rule of law. Where corruption flourishes, the rule of law fails, simply put, corruption is a threat to the rule of law. It bastardized and undermines the rule of law and good governance principles - where men rule at their discretion rather than the use of the rule of law which makes governance processes ineffective. Corruption is prevalent all over the world, and has extremely far reaching effects. Many of the world’s greatest challenges have been amplified by corruption, for example poverty, unequal distribution of wealth and resources, and world hunger and it weakens the application and the entrenchment of the rule of law. It saps citizens' trust in their governments and undercuts government credibility. This paper will discuss the rule of law in the present democratic system in Nigeria, the impact of corruption on the rule of law in Nigeria and how corruption undermines and subverts the entrenchment of the rule of law in the present day Nigeria.

Keywords: rule of law, corruption, Nigeria, influence, authority

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Authors: Sahin Emrah Amrahov, Fatih Aybar, Serhat Dogan

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In this paper we consider the rule reduct generation problem. Rule Reduct Generation (RG) and Modified Rule Generation (MRG) algorithms, that are used to solve this problem, are well-known. Alternative to these algorithms, we develop Pruning Rule Generation (PRG) algorithm. We compare the PRG algorithm with RG and MRG.

Keywords: rough sets, decision rules, rule induction, classification

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Authors: B. Chandra

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In Association Rule Mining, much attention has been paid for developing algorithms for large (frequent/closed/maximal) itemsets but very little attention has been paid to improve the performance of rule generation algorithms. Rule generation is an important part of Association Rule Mining. In this paper, a novel approach named NARG (Association Rule using Antecedent Support) has been proposed for rule generation that uses memory resident data structure named FCET (Frequent Closed Enumeration Tree) to find frequent/closed itemsets. In addition, the computational speed of NARG is enhanced by giving importance to the rules that have lower antecedent support. Comparative performance evaluation of NARG with fast association rule mining algorithm for rule generation has been done on synthetic datasets and real life datasets (taken from UCI Machine Learning Repository). Performance analysis shows that NARG is computationally faster in comparison to the existing algorithms for rule generation.

Keywords: knowledge discovery, association rule mining, antecedent support, rule generation

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Authors: Thi Thao Nguyen, Andrew McLennan, Shino Takayama

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We study the probabilistic allocation of finitely many indivisible objects to finitely many agents. Well known allocation rules for this problem include random priority, the market mechanism proposed by Hylland and Zeckhauser [1979], and the probabilistic serial rule of Bogomolnaia and Moulin [2001]. We propose a new allocation rule, which we call the lexico-graphic (serial) rule, that is tailored for situations in which each agent's primary concern is to maximize the probability of receiving her favourite object. Three axioms, lex efficiency, lex envy freeness and fairness, are proposed and fully characterize the lexicographic serial rule. We also discuss how our axioms and the lexicographic rule are related to other allocation rules, particularly the probabilistic serial rule.

Keywords: Efficiency, Envy free, Lexicographic, Probabilistic Serial Rule

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Authors: Suzan Wedyan

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Data mining is one of the main phases in the Knowledge Discovery Database (KDD) which is responsible of finding hidden and useful knowledge from databases. There are many different tasks for data mining including regression, pattern recognition, clustering, classification, and association rule. In recent years a promising data mining approach called associative classification (AC) has been proposed, AC integrates classification and association rule discovery to build classification models (classifiers). This paper surveys and critically compares several AC algorithms with reference of the different procedures are used in each algorithm, such as rule learning, rule sorting, rule pruning, classifier building, and class allocation for test cases.

Keywords: associative classification, classification, data mining, learning, rule ranking, rule pruning, prediction

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Authors: Daniela Piana

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This work casts light on what lies underneath the rule of law. In order to do so it unfolds the arguments in three main steps. The first one is a pars destruens: the mainstreaming scholarship on judicial independence and judicial accountability is questioned under the large amount of data we have at our disposal (this step is accomplished in the first two paragraphs). The second step is the reframe of the concept of the rule of law and the consequent rise of a hidden dimension, which has been so far largely underexplored: responsiveness. The third step consists into offering the readers empirical support and drawing thereby consequences in terms of policy design and citizens engagement into the rule of law implementation (these two steps are accomplished in the third paragraph).

Keywords: rule of law, accountability, trust, citizens

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Authors: Mohammed Muharram

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The Blue Humanities aims to deepen our understanding of the oceans through the integration of arts and sciences, emphasizing their cultural, historical, and ecological significance. This study explores the role of visual arts within this interdisciplinary framework, focusing on the underwater sculptures of Jason deCaires Taylor as a case study. The research employs a multidisciplinary approach, combining art history, environmental science, and cultural studies to explore the significance of Taylor's underwater installations. Methodologies include analysis of the artistic elements and themes in Taylor's work, assessment of the ecological impact of the sculptures on marine environments, and examination of the cultural narratives they evoke. Key findings highlight how Taylor's sculptures serve as artificial reefs, promoting marine biodiversity while simultaneously raising awareness about ocean conservation. The artworks act as powerful symbols, merging environmental activism with artistic expression and transforming underwater spaces into immersive art galleries that challenge traditional notions of viewing art. By bridging the gap between visual arts and environmental science, this study demonstrates how Taylor's sculptures contribute to the Blue Humanities by fostering a deeper, more holistic appreciation of the marine world. The research advocates for the continued integration of artistic perspectives into marine conservation efforts, emphasizing the role of visual arts in shaping public perceptions and promoting ecological sustainability. In conclusion, this study underscores the transformative potential of visual arts within the Blue Humanities, exemplified by Jason deCaires Taylor's underwater sculptures, which inspire both aesthetic appreciation and environmental consciousness.

Keywords: blue humanities, visual art, underwater sculptures, Jason deCaires Taylor

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Authors: Seyed Jafar Hosseini, Rahim Vakilzadeh, Hassan Movassagi

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‘Negation of insinuation’ or ‘negation of dominance’ Rule is considered as one of the most important principles governing the policies and external relations of Islamic and religious countries. The stable and influential role which this rule puts on the behavior and policies of the Islamic religion and foreign policies of Islamic countries shows the importance of the presented topic. Among Islamic scholars, Imam Khomeini (RA) has been paid most attention to this rule on governing issues. In the present study, we are going to investigate the nature and dimensions of Negation of insinuation rule in Imam Khomeini's ideas with an analytical and descriptive method. The obtained results show that Negation of insinuation rule is an effective and main guidance in Imam's thoughts and behavior.

Keywords: negation of insinuation Rule, Imam Khomeini (RA), cultural domination, political domination, economic domination

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Authors: Kwan Hee Han, Jun Woo Lee, Sung Moon Bae, Twae Kyung Park

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ECA (Event-Condition-Action) languages are largely adopted for event processing since they are an intuitive and powerful paradigm for programming reactive systems. However, there are some limitations about ECA rules for processing of complex events such as coupling of event producer and consumer. The objective of this paper is to propose an ECA rule pattern to improve the current limitations of ECA rule, and to develop a prototype system. In this paper, conventional ECA rule is separated into 3 parts and each part is extended to meet the requirements of CEP. Finally, event processing logic is established by combining the relevant elements of 3 parts. The usability of proposed extended ECA rule is validated by a test scenario in this study.

Keywords: complex event processing, ECA rule, Event processing system, event-driven architecture, internet of things

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Authors: Wheyming Song, Hung-Hsiang Lin, Scott Lian

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In this research, we investigate the optimal dispatching rule for machines and manpower allocation in the solar ingot-wafer systems. The performance of the method is measured by the sales profit for each dollar paid to the operators in a one week at steady-state. The decision variables are identification-number of machines and operators when each job is required to be served in each process. We propose a rule which is a function of operator’s ability, corresponding salary, and standing location while in the factory. The rule is named ‘Multi-nominal distribution dispatch rule’. The proposed rule performs better than many traditional rules including generic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. Simulation results show that the proposed Multi-nominal distribution dispatch rule improvement on the sales profit dramatically.

Keywords: dispatching, solar ingot, simulation, flexsim

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Authors: Mbuzeni Mathenjwa

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Upon their independence, most African countries adopted constitutions that proclaim respect for the rule of law. The decision to constitutionalise the rule of law is basically informed by the countries’ experience during the colonial era which was characterised by discrimination on various grounds including race, gender and religion. Despite the promise to be bound by and adhere to the rule of law, disrespect for the rule of law has become a norm in the African continent. This is evident from the reported incidence of abuse of power, failure to perform obligations imposed by law and flagrant disregard of the law by the Executive including the heads of states in the continent. In some African countries including South Africa, the courts of law have been approached to rule on the legality of the decisions of the executives, taken contrary to the prescripts of the law. South African Courts have laid down a number of decisions wherein they found that the conduct of the executive contravenes the rule of law. Consequently decisions of the executive have been declared invalid by courts. In this regard courts have become a safety net in preserving the rule of law in. Accordingly, this paper discusses the role of the courts in preserving the rule of law in Africa. This it does by explaining the notion of judicial independence and the doctrine of the rule of law. The explanation on the notion of judicial independence is relevant because only an independent judiciary can effectively review and set aside the decision of the executive including the president of a country. Furthermore, a comparative overview of the enforcement of the rule of law in African countries is done. The methods used for this research is literature review, and study of legislation and case law in selected African countries relating to the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law. Finally, a conclusion is drawn on the role of the independent judiciary to preserve the rule of law in Africa.

Keywords: Africa, constitutions, independence, judiciary

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Authors: Tareq Hamadneh, Jochen Merker, Hassan Al-Zoubi

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Bernstein's expansion for exponentials in Taylor functions provides lower and upper optimization values for the range of its original function. these values converge to the original functions if the degree is elevated or the domain subdivided. Taylor polynomial can be applied so that the exponential is a polynomial of finite degree over a given domain. Bernstein's basis has two main properties: its sum equals 1, and positive for all x 2 (0; 1). In this work, we prove the existence of fixed points for exponential functions in a given domain using the optimization values of Bernstein. The Bernstein basis of finite degree T over a domain D is defined non-negatively. Any polynomial p of degree t can be expanded into the Bernstein form of maximum degree t ≤ T, where we only need to compute the coefficients of Bernstein in order to optimize the original polynomial. The main property is that p(x) is approximated by the minimum and maximum Bernstein coefficients (Bernstein bound). If the bound is contained in the given domain, then we say that p(x) has fixed points in the same domain.

Keywords: Bernstein polynomials, Stability of control functions, numerical optimization, Taylor function

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Authors: Avinash S. Jagtap, Sharad D. Gore, Rajendra G. Gurao

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Decision rules become more and more complex as the number of conditions increase. As a consequence, the complexity of the decision rule also influences the time complexity of computer implementation of such a rule. Consider, for example, a decision that depends on four conditions A, B, C and D. For simplicity, suppose each of these four conditions is binary. Even then the decision rule will consist of 16 lines, where each line will be of the form: If A and B and C and D, then action 1. If A and B and C but not D, then action 2 and so on. While executing this decision rule, each of the four conditions will be checked every time until all the four conditions in a line are satisfied. The minimum number of logical comparisons is 4 whereas the maximum number is 64. This paper proposes to present a complex decision rule in the form of a decision tree. A decision tree divides the cases into branches every time a condition is checked. In the form of a decision tree, every branching eliminates half of the cases that do not satisfy the related conditions. As a result, every branch of the decision tree involves only four logical comparisons and hence is significantly simpler than the corresponding complex decision rule. The conclusion of this paper is that every complex decision rule can be represented as a decision tree and the decision tree is mathematically equivalent but computationally much simpler than the original complex decision rule

Keywords: strategic, tactical, operational, adaptive, innovative

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Authors: Rodrigo S. Piera, Jailson Sales Ara´ujo, Gabriela B. Lemos, Matthew B. Weiss, John B. DeBrota, Gabriel H. Aguilar, Jacques L. Pienaar

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The Born rule was historically viewed as an independent axiom of quantum mechanics until Gleason derived it in 1957 by assuming the Hilbert space structure of quantum measurements [1]. In subsequent decades there have been diverse proposals to derive the Born rule starting from even more basic assumptions [2]. In this work, we demonstrate that a simple reinforcement-learning algorithm, having no pre-programmed assumptions about quantum theory, will nevertheless converge to a behaviour pattern that accords with the Born rule, when tasked with predicting the output of a quantum optical implementation of a symmetric informationally-complete measurement (SIC). Our findings support a hypothesis due to QBism (the subjective Bayesian approach to quantum theory), which states that the Born rule can be thought of as a normative rule for making decisions in a quantum world [3].

Keywords: quantum Bayesianism, quantum theory, quantum information, quantum measurement

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Authors: B. Suraj Aravind, M. H. M. Krishna Prasad

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There exist emerging applications of data streams that require association rule mining, such as network traffic monitoring, web click streams analysis, sensor data, data from satellites etc. Data streams typically arrive continuously in high speed with huge amount and changing data distribution. This raises new issues that need to be considered when developing association rule mining techniques for stream data. This paper proposes to introduce an improved data stream association rule mining algorithm by eliminating the limitation of resources. For this, the concept of cloud computing is used. Inclusion of this may lead to additional unknown problems which needs further research.

Keywords: data stream, association rule mining, cloud computing, frequent itemsets

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Authors: Monty Vacura

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Hamilton’s Rule is a universal law of biology expressed in protists, plants and animals. When applied to human populations, this model explains: 1) Origin of religion in society as a biopsychological need selected to increase population size; 2) Instincts of racism expressed through intergroup competition; 3) Simultaneous selection for human cooperation and conflict, love and hate; 4) Connection between sporting events and instinctive social messaging for stimulating offensive and defensive responses; 5) Pathway to reduce human sacrifice. This chapter discusses the deep psychological influences of Hamilton’s Rule. Suggestions are provided to reduce human deaths via our instinctive sacrificial behavior, by consciously monitoring Hamilton’s Rule variables highlighted throughout our media outlets.

Keywords: psychology, Hamilton’s rule, evolution, human instincts

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang, Yuan-Hong Ho

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This study utilizes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Rules Dataset focusing on four specific fiscal rules such as expenditure rule, revenue rule, budget balance rule, and debt rule and five main characteristics of each fiscal rule those are monitoring, enforcement, coverage, legal basis, and escape clause to construct the Fiscal Rule Index for nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 1996 to 2015. After constructing the fiscal rule index for each country, we utilize the Panel Generalized Method of Moments (Panel GMM) by using the constructed fiscal rule index to examine the effectiveness of fiscal rules in reducing procyclicality. Empirical results show that national fiscal rules have a significantly negative impact on procyclicality of government expenditure. Additionally, stricter fiscal rules combined with high government effectiveness are effective in reducing procyclicality of government expenditure. Results of this study indicate that for nine Asia-Pacific countries, policymakers’ use of fiscal rules and government effectiveness to reducing procyclicality of fiscal policy are effective.

Keywords: counter-cyclical policy, fiscal rules, government efficiency, procyclical policy

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins's problem, double-input rule module, fuzzy inference model, obstacle avoidance, single-input rule module

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Authors: Mohammad Ghandehari Motlagh

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Purpose: To evaluate validity of simplified Javal’s rule (Total Ast=Corneal Ast-0.50@9) in 147 pre-op cataract eyes. Methods: Due to change in lens tissue and structure in a cataract crystalline lens, we conceive the simplified javal’s rule may not be valid in cataract cases.In this cross-sectional study,147 pre-op cataract eyes without oblique astigmatism were enrolled in this study. Ocular biometry (with IOL master 500)and keratometry and refraction findings were recorded. Results: Mean age of our patients was 64.95 yrs/old (SD+_9.86) that confirms on senile cataract. Mean Axial length and average keratometry were respectively 23.86 and 44.62.Prevalence of systemic diseases diabet and high blood pressure were respectively 43 (29.25%) and 44 (29.93%)and shows importance of these diseases. The Corneal astigmatism axis is correlated with refractive astigmatism in cataract eyes (R=0.493). Simplified Javal’s rule is valid in cataract eyes (P<0.001). Conclusion: Simplified Javal’s rule is a valid formula in pre-op cataract eyes and can be used for keratometry results confirmation.

Keywords: javals rule, cataract, keratometry, ocular axial length

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Authors: Sharon Kun-Amornpong

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In this paper, ASEAN financial integration will be discussed from the perspective of the rule of law. The methodology of the paper is comparative regionalism. It will compare the role of the rule of law in ASEAN financial integration with that of the European Union with particular focuses on, for example, institutions and values. The paper argues that in the realm of financial integration, the rule of law is one of the most important factors that could help strengthen and promote financial integration in ASEAN. This is despite the fact that the ‘ASEAN Way’ emphasises non-interference and utilises a consensus-based cooperation rather than formal institutions. Nevertheless, the rule of law for ASEAN financial integration should be situated in its own historical, cultural, and political contexts. In addition, in the case of ASEAN, the rule of law cannot take root if it does not come from the demand of the people in this region. For instance, a reform or creation of legal institutions should not be imposed by international financial institutions. The paper will conclude that law has a normative force. It could shape expectation of market participants and promote deeper financial integration if norms that the law generates have become a significant norm in the society or industry.

Keywords: Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, comparative regionalism, financial integration, the rule of law

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study focused on early adolescent rule-breaking behavioral problems using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the rule-breaking behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a path analysis method was used to explore the correlational and causal relationships among background variables and breaking behavior variables.

Keywords: ASEBA, rule-breaking, path analysis, early adolescent

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Authors: Ali Muhammad

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The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework which demonstrates the effect of four personal factors on employees rule following behavior in Kuwaiti business organizations. The model suggested in this study includes organizational citizenship behavior, affective organizational commitment, organizational trust, and procedural justice as possible predictors of rule following behavior. The study also attempts to compare the effects of the suggested factors on employees rule following behavior. The new model will, hopefully, extend previous research by adding new variables to the models used to explain employees rule following behavior. A discussion of issues related to rule-following behavior is presented, as well as recommendations for future research.

Keywords: employee adherence to rules, organizational justice, organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: David A. Swanson, Lucky M. Tedrow

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Taylor’s Law is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates variances to means in sets of non-negative measurements via an approximate power function, which has found application to human mortality. This study adds to this research by showing that Taylor’s Law leads to a model that reasonably describes the relationship between life expectancy at birth (e0, which also is equal to mean age at death in a life table) and variance at age of death in seven World Bank regional life tables measured at two points in time, 1970 and 2000. Using as a benchmark a non-random sample of four Japanese female life tables covering the period from 1950 to 2004, the study finds that the simple linear model provides reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a life table from e0, where the latter range from 60.9 to 85.59 years. Employing 2017 life tables from the Human Mortality Database, the simple linear model is used to provide estimates of variance at age in death for six countries, three of which have high e0 values and three of which have lower e0 values. The paper provides a substantive interpretation of Taylor’s Law relative to e0 and concludes by arguing that reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a period life table can be calculated using this approach, which also can be used where e0 itself is estimated rather than generated through the construction of a life table, a useful feature of the model.

Keywords: empirical pattern, mean age at death in a life table, mean age of a stationary population, stationary population

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Authors: Gen Sakoda, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

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Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant  of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual  value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.

Keywords: food waste reduction, particle filter, point-of-sales, sustainable development goals, Taylor's law, time series analysis

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