Search results for: survival model

Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

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Authors: Shenlun Chen, Leonard Wee

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Tumor grading is an essential reference for colorectal cancer (CRC) staging and survival prognostication. The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) grading system defines histological grade of CRC adenocarcinoma based on the density of glandular formation on whole slide images (WSI). Tumors are classified as well-, moderately-, poorly- or un-differentiated depending on the percentage of the tumor that is gland forming; >95%, 50-95%, 5-50% and <5%, respectively. However, manually grading WSIs is a time-consuming process and can cause observer error due to subjective judgment and unnoticed regions. Furthermore, pathologists’ grading is usually coarse while a finer and continuous differentiation grade may help to stratifying CRC patients better. In this study, a deep learning based automatic differentiation grading algorithm was developed and evaluated by survival analysis. Firstly, a gland segmentation model was developed for segmenting gland structures. Gland regions of WSIs were delineated and used for differentiation annotating. Tumor regions were annotated by experienced pathologists into high-, medium-, low-differentiation and normal tissue, which correspond to tumor with clear-, unclear-, no-gland structure and non-tumor, respectively. Then a differentiation prediction model was developed on these human annotations. Finally, all enrolled WSIs were processed by gland segmentation model and differentiation prediction model. The differentiation grade can be calculated by deep learning models’ prediction of tumor regions and tumor differentiation status according to WHO’s defines. If multiple WSIs were possessed by a patient, the highest differentiation grade was chosen. Additionally, the differentiation grade was normalized into scale between 0 to 1. The Cancer Genome Atlas, project COAD (TCGA-COAD) project was enrolled into this study. For the gland segmentation model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) reached 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.932 in validation set. For the differentiation prediction model, ROC reached 0.983, 0.963, 0.963, 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.880, 0.923, 0.668, 0.881 for groups of low-, medium-, high-differentiation and normal tissue in validation set. Four hundred and one patients were selected after removing WSIs without gland regions and patients without follow up data. The concordance index reached to 0.609. Optimized cut off point of 51% was found by “Maxstat” method which was almost the same as WHO system’s cut off point of 50%. Both WHO system’s cut off point and optimized cut off point performed impressively in Kaplan-Meier curves and both p value of logrank test were below 0.005. In this study, gland structure of WSIs and differentiation status of tumor regions were proven to be predictable through deep leaning method. A finer and continuous differentiation grade can also be automatically calculated through above models. The differentiation grade was proven to stratify CAC patients well in survival analysis, whose optimized cut off point was almost the same as WHO tumor grading system. The tool of automatically calculating differentiation grade may show potential in field of therapy decision making and personalized treatment.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, differentiation, survival analysis, tumor grading

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Authors: A. Bello-Olusoji, M. O. Sodamola, Y. A. Adejola, D. D Akinbola

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An eight (8) weeks study was carried out on Four hundred and five (405) African catfish (Clarias gariepinus) juveniles to examine the effect of graded levels of egg shell on their growth performance and survival rates. They were acclimatized for two (2) weeks after which they were weighed and allotted into five dietary treatments of three (3) replicates each and 27 fishes per replicate making a total number of eighty-one (81) fishes per treatment. The dietary treatments contained 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100(%) egg shell inclusion from treatment one to treatment five respectively. Parameter on daily feed intake, weekly weight gain, and daily mortalities were recorded. The result of the experiment indicated that treatment four (4) with 75% inclusion of egg shell was the best in terms of weight gain and survival rates and was significantly different (P<0.05) when compared with the other treatments. For Catfish farming to remain viable in the nearest future, lower feed cost and increased profit are required; it is therefore recommended that diets of African catfish (Clarias gariepinus) be supplemented with well processed egg shell at 75% level of inclusion to achieve this.

Keywords: African catfish, egg shell, performance, performance, survival rate, weight gain

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Authors: Najrullah Khan, Athar Ali Khan

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The Topp-Leone distribution was introduced by Topp- Leone in 1955. In this paper, an attempt has been made to fit Topp-Leone Generalized exponential (TPGE) distribution. A real survival data set is used for illustrations. Implementation is done using R and JAGS and appropriate illustrations are made. R and JAGS codes have been provided to implement censoring mechanism using both optimization and simulation tools. The main aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate the Bayesian modelling approach to the analysis of survival data. Emphasis is placed on the modeling of data and the interpretation of the results. Crucial to this is an understanding of the nature of the incomplete or 'censored' data encountered. Analytic approximation and simulation tools are covered here, but most of the emphasis is on Markov chain based Monte Carlo method including independent Metropolis algorithm, which is currently the most popular technique. For analytic approximation, among various optimization algorithms and trust region method is found to be the best. In this paper, TPGE model is also used to analyze the lifetime data in Bayesian paradigm. Results are evaluated from the above mentioned real survival data set. The analytic approximation and simulation methods are implemented using some software packages. It is clear from our findings that simulation tools provide better results as compared to those obtained by asymptotic approximation.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, JAGS, Laplace Approximation, LaplacesDemon, posterior, R Software, simulation

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Authors: Sanjeewa Seneviratne, Ian Campbell, Nina Scott, Ross Lawrenson

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Introduction: Indigenous Māori women experience a 60% higher breast cancer mortality rate compared with European women in New Zealand. We explored the impact of difference in the rate of screen detected breast cancer between Māori and European women on more advanced disease at diagnosis and lower survival in Māori women. Methods: All primary in-situ and invasive breast cancers diagnosed in screening age women (as defined by the New Zealand National Breast Cancer Screening Programme) between 1999 and 2012 in the Waikato area were identified from the Waikato Breast Cancer Register and the national screening database. Association between screen versus non-screen detection and cancer stage at diagnosis and survival were compared by ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation. Results: Māori women had 50% higher odds of being diagnosed with more advance staged cancer compared with NZ European women, a half of which was explained by the lower rate of screen detected cancer in Māori women. Significantly lower breast cancer survival rates were observed for Māori compared with NZ European and most deprived compared with most affluent socioeconomic groups for symptomatically detected breast cancer. No significant survival differences by ethnicity or socioeconomic deprivation were observed for screen detected breast cancer. Conclusions: Low rate of screen detected breast cancer appears to be a major contributor for more advanced stage disease at diagnosis and lower breast cancer survival in Māori compared with NZ European women. Increasing screening participation for Māori has the potential to substantially reduce breast cancer mortality inequity between Māori and NZ European women.

Keywords: breast cancer, screening, ethnicity, inequity

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Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

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Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

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Authors: Ramanen Sugunesegran, Michael L. Williams

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Over the past two decades surgical approaches for mitral valve (MV) disease have evolved with the advent of minimally invasive techniques. Robotic mitral valve repair (RMVr) safety and efficacy has been well documented, however, mid- to long-term data are limited. The aim of this review was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the available mid- to long-term term data for RMVr. Electronic searches of five databases were performed to identify all relevant studies reporting minimum 5-year data on RMVr. Pre-defined primary outcomes of interest were overall survival, freedom from MV reoperation and freedom from moderate or worse mitral regurgitation (MR) at 5-years or more post-RMVr. A meta-analysis of proportions or means was performed, utilizing a random effects model, to present the data. Kaplan-Meier curves were aggregated using reconstructed individual patient data. Nine studies totaling 3,300 patients undergoing RMVr were identified. Rates of overall survival at 1-, 5- and 10-years were 99.2%, 97.4% and 92.3%, respectively. Freedom from MV reoperation at 8-years post RMVr was 95.0%. Freedom from moderate or worse MR at 7-years was 86.0%. Rates of early post-operative complications were low with only 0.2% all-cause mortality and 1.0% cerebrovascular accident. Reoperation for bleeding was low at 2.2% and successful RMVr was 99.8%. Mean intensive care unit and hospital stay were 22.4 hours and 5.2 days, respectively. RMVr is a safe procedure with low rates of early mortality and other complications. It can be performed with low complication rates in high volume, experienced centers. Evaluation of available mid-term data post-RMVr suggests favorable rates of overall survival, freedom from MV reoperation and freedom from moderate or worse MR recurrence.

Keywords: mitral valve disease, mitral valve repair, robotic cardiac surgery, robotic mitral valve repair

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Authors: Taleb L., Benarbia M., Boutira F. M., Allam H., Boukerche A.

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Introduction and purpose of the study: Meningiomas are the most common non-glial intracranial tumors in adults, accounting for approximately 30% of all central nervous system tumors. The aim of our study is to determine the epidemiological, clinical, therapeutic, and evolutionary characteristics of a cohort of patients with intracranial meningioma treated with radiotherapy at the Emir Abdelkader Cancer Center in Oran. Material and methods: This is a retrospective study of 44 patients during the period from 2014 to 2020. The overall survival and relapse-free survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results and statistical analysis: The median age of the patients was 49 years [21-76 years] with a clear female predominance (sex ratio=2.4). The average diagnostic delay was seven months [2 to 24 months], the circumstances of the discovery of which were dominated by headaches in 54.5% of cases (n=24), visual disturbances in 40.9% (n=18), and motor disorders in 15.9% (n=7). The seat of the tumor was essentially at the level of the base of the skull in 52.3% of patients (n=23), including 29.5% (n=13) at the level of the cavernous sinus, 27.3% (n=12) at the parasagittal level and 20.5% (n=9) at the convexity. The diagnosis was confirmed surgically in 36 patients (81.8%) whose anatomopathological study returned in favor of grades I, II, and III in respectively 40.9%, 29.5%, and 11.4% of the cases. Radiotherapy was indicated postoperatively in 45.5% of patients (n=20), exclusive in 27.3% (n=12) and after tumor recurrence in 27.3% of cases (n=18). The irradiation doses delivered were as follows: 50 Gy (20.5%), 54 Gy (65.9%), and 60 Gy (13.6%). With a median follow-up of 69 months, the probabilities of relapse-free survival and overall survival at three years are 93.2% and 95.4%, respectively, whereas they are 71.2% and 80.7% at five years. Conclusion: Meningiomas are common primary brain tumors. Most often benign but can also progress aggressively. Their treatment is essentially surgical, but radiotherapy retains its place in specific situations, allowing good tumor control and overall survival.

Keywords: diagnosis, meningioma, surgery, radiotherapy, survival

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Authors: Taleb Lotfi, Benarbia Maheidine, Allam Hamza, Boutira Fatima, Boukerche Abdelbaki

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Introduction and purpose of the study: This is a retrospective single-center study with an analytical aim to determine the prognostic factors for relapse in patients treated with radiotherapy after total laryngectomy with lymph node dissection for laryngeal cancer at the Emir Abdelkader cancer center in Oran (Algeria). Material and methods: During the study period from January 2014 to December 2018, eighty-nine patients (n=89) with squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx were treated with postoperative radiotherapy. Relapse-free survival was studied in the univariate analysis according to pre-treatment criteria using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. We performed a univariate analysis to identify relapse factors. Statistically significant factors have been studied in the multifactorial analysis according to the Cox model. Results and statistical analysis: The average age was 62.7 years (40-86 years). It was a squamous cell carcinoma in all cases. Postoperatively, the tumor was classified as pT3 and pT4 in 93.3% of patients. Histological lymph node involvement was found in 36 cases (40.4%), with capsule rupture in 39% of cases, while the limits of surgical excision were microscopically infiltrated in 11 patients (12.3%). Chemotherapy concomitant with radiotherapy was used in 67.4% of patients. With a median follow-up of 57 months (23 to 104 months), the probabilities of relapse-free survival and five-year overall survival are 71.2% and 72.4%, respectively. The factors correlated with a high risk of relapse were locally advanced tumor stage pT4 (p=0.001), tumor site in case of subglottic extension (p=0.0003), infiltrated surgical limits R1 (p=0.001), l lymph node involvement (p=0.002), particularly in the event of lymph node capsular rupture (p=0.0003) as well as the time between surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy (p=0.001). However, in the subgroup analysis, the major prognostic factors for disease-free survival were subglottic tumor extension (p=0.001) and time from surgery to adjuvant radiotherapy (p=0.005). Conclusion: Combined surgery and postoperative radiation therapy are effective treatment modalities in the management of laryngeal cancer. Close cooperation of the entire cervicofacial oncology team is essential, expressed during a multidisciplinary consultation meeting, with the need to respect the time between surgery and radiotherapy.

Keywords: laryngeal cancer, laryngectomy, postoperative radiotherapy, survival

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Authors: Kathryn L. Duncan, Charles A. Kuntz, Alessandra C. Santamaria, James O. Simcock

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Access to megavoltage radiation therapy for small animals is limited in many locations around the world. This can preclude the use of palliative radiation therapy for the treatment of appendicular osteosarcoma in dogs. The objective of this study was to retrospectively assess the adverse effects and survival times of dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma that were treated with hypofractionated orthovoltage radiation therapy and adjunctive carboplatin chemotherapy administered via a single subcutaneous infusion. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively to identify client-owned dogs with spontaneously occurring appendicular osteosarcoma that was treated with palliative orthovoltage radiation therapy and a single subcutaneous infusion of carboplatin. Data recorded included signalment, tumour location, results of diagnostic imaging, haematologic and serum biochemical analyses, adverse effects of radiation therapy and chemotherapy, and survival times. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed, and log-rank analysis was used to determine the impact of specific patient variables on survival time. Twenty-three dogs were identified that met the inclusion criteria. Median survival time for dogs was 182 days. Eleven dogs had adverse haematologic effects, 3 had adverse gastrointestinal effects, 6 had adverse effects at the radiation site and 7 developed infections at the carboplatin infusion site. No statistically significant differences were identified in survival times based on sex, tumour location, development of infection, or pretreatment serum alkaline phosphatase. Median survival time and incidence of adverse effects were comparable to those previously reported in dogs undergoing palliative radiation therapy with megavoltage or cobalt radiation sources and conventional intravenous carboplatin chemotherapy. The use of orthovoltage palliative radiation therapy may be a reasonable alternative to megavoltage radiation in locations where access is limited.

Keywords: radiotherapy, veterinary oncology, chemotherapy, osteosarcoma

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Authors: T. J. McDonald

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This paper explores the adoption and usage of ICT by 3 specific types of voluntary organisations in Ireland: Sporting, Community and Rural & Agricultural. It explores the problems that these organisations are facing and examines some of the concerns expressed by their members. The paper outlines how various forms of ICT are being slowly adopted and diffused among its membership to help solve these problems and address their members concerns and in doing so, perhaps ensure the survival of the organisation into the future.

Keywords: Ireland, voluntary organisations, ICT, adoption and diffusion

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Authors: Jyothi Nagraj, Sudeshna Mukherjee, Rajdeep Chowdhury

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Autophagy has recently been linked with cancer cell survival post drug insult contributing to acquisition of resistance. However, the molecular signaling governing autophagic survival response is poorly explored. In our study, in osteosarcoma (OS) cells cisplatin shock was found to activate both MAPK and autophagy signaling. An activation of JNK and autophagy acted as pro-survival strategy, while ERK1/2 triggered apoptotic signals upon cisplatin stress. An increased sensitivity of the cells to cisplatin was obtained with simultaneous inhibition of both autophagy and JNK pathway. Furthermore, we observed that the autophagic stimulation upon drug stress regulates other developmentally active signaling pathways like the Hippo pathway in OS cells. Cisplatin resistant cells were thereafter developed by repetitive drug exposure followed by clonal selection. Basal levels of autophagy were found to be high in resistant cells to. However, the signaling mechanism leading to autophagic up-regulation and its regulatory effect differed in OS cells upon attaining drug resistance. Our results provide valuable clues to regulatory dynamics of autophagy that can be considered for development of improved therapeutic strategy against resistant type cancers.

Keywords: JNK, autophagy, drug resistance, cancer

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Authors: K. A. Adeleke

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Often in epidemiological research, introducing stratified Cox model can account for the existence of interactions of some inherent factors with some major/noticeable factors. This research work aimed at modelling correlated variables in infant mortality with the existence of some inherent factors affecting the infant survival function. An alternative semiparametric Stratified Cox model is proposed with a view to take care of multilevel factors that have interactions with others. This, however, was used as a tool to model infant mortality data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) with some multilevel factors (Tetanus, Polio, and Breastfeeding) having correlation with main factors (Sex, Size, and Mode of Delivery). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are also studied via simulation. The tested model via data showed good fit and performed differently depending on the levels of the interaction of the strata variable Z*. An evidence that the baseline hazard functions and regression coefficients are not the same from stratum to stratum provides a gain in information as against the usage of Cox model. Simulation result showed that the present method produced better estimates in terms of bias, lower standard errors, and or mean square errors.

Keywords: stratified Cox, semiparametric model, infant mortality, multilevel factors, cofounding variables

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Authors: Surbhi Rani, Sunita Gakkhar

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The four-dimensional food web system consisting of two prey species for a generalist middle predator and a top predator is proposed and investigated. The middle predator is predating both the prey species with a modified Holling type-II functional response. The food web model is found to be well-posed, bounded, and dissipative. The proposed model's essential dynamical features are studied in terms of local stability. The four species' survival is explored, and persistence conditions are established. The numerical simulations reveal the persistence in the form of a chaotic attractor or stable focus. The conclusion is that providing additional food to the middle predator may help to control the food chain's chaos.

Keywords: predator-prey model, existence of equilibrium points, local stability, chaos, numerical simulations

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Authors: Mohammad ASadian, Samira RajiAsadabadi

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Osteoporosis is very common, particularly in post-menopausal women and is characterized by a decrease in bone mass and strength. Osteoporosis also affects the jawbone and it is considered a potential contraindication to the placement of dental implants. The present paper reviews the literature regarding the effect of osteoporosis on the osseointegration of implants. Experimental models have shown that osteoporosis affects the process of osseointegration, which can be reversed by treatment. However, studies in subjects with osteoporosis have shown no differences in the survival of the implants compared to healthy individuals. Therefore, osteoporosis cannot be considered a contraindication for implant placement. Oral bisphosphonates are the most commonly used pharmacological agents in the treatment of osteoporosis. Although there have been cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw in patients treated with bisphosphonates, they are very rare and it is more usually associated with intravenous bisphosphonates in patients with neoplasms or other serious diseases. Nevertheless, patients treated with bisphosphonates must be informed in writing about the possibility of this complication and must give informed consent. Ceasing to use of bisphosphonates before implant placement does not seem to be necessary.

Keywords: Osteoporosis, dental implant, bisphosphonates, survival

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Khalil Trigui, Rafik Ben Said, Fourat Akrout, Neji Aloui

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In this study, we examined in the first part the eco-biology of Artemia (A.salina) collected from Sahline Salt Lake (governorate of Monastir: Tunisia) during an annual cycle. The correlations between environmental factors and some biological parameters of Artemia were determined. The results obtained showed that the environmental factors affected the biology of Artemia. The highest abundance was recorded in May (550 ± 2,16 ind/l) and all life history stages existed with different seasonal proportions. The Artemia population is bisexual with ovoviviparous reproduction at the beginning and oviparous at the end of the life cycle. We also recorded the dominance of males at the start and the females at the end of the cycle. During all the study period, the size of mature females is bigger than that of males. The fertility obtained resulted in a significant production of cysts compared to the nauplii. A negative correlation with highly significant effect was deduced between environmental factors (temperature and salinity) and the production of nauplii (ovoviviparity) in contrast with dissolved oxygen. In the second part of our work is consecrated to the mastery of breeding Artemia. For this, we tested the effect of five external factors (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, light intensity and food) on the survival of this crustacean. Thereby, the survival rates of Artemia were affected by the different values of studied factors. The recorded results showed that Artemia salina has an optimum temperature ranged from 25 to 27°C with a survival rate ranging from 84 to 88%. The optimal salinity to breed Artemia salina was 37 psu (62 ± 0,23%). Nevertheless, this crustacean was able to survive and withstand the salinity of 0 psu (freshwater). The optimum concentration of dissolved oxygen was 7mg/l with a survival rate of 87,11 ± 0,04%. An optimum light intensity of 10 lux revealed a survival rate equal to 85,33 ± 0,01%. The results also showed that the preferred micro-algae by Artemia is Dunaliella salina with a maximum survival rate of the order of 80 ± 0,15%. There is a significant effect for all experienced parameters on the survival of Artemia reared except the nature of food.

Keywords: Artemia salina, biology, breeding, ecology, Sahline salt lake

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Authors: Wahab Ali, Oyebade K. Oyedotun, Adnan Khashman

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Breast cancer remains a threat to the woman’s world in view of survival rates, it early diagnosis and mortality statistics. So far, research has shown that many survivors of breast cancer cases are in the ones with early diagnosis. Breast cancer is usually categorized into stages which indicates its severity and corresponding survival rates for patients. Investigations show that the farther into the stages before diagnosis the lesser the chance of survival; hence the early diagnosis of breast cancer becomes imperative, and consequently the application of novel technologies to achieving this. Over the year, mammograms have used in the diagnosis of breast cancer, but the inconclusive deductions made from such scans lead to either false negative cases where cancer patients may be left untreated or false positive where unnecessary biopsies are carried out. This paper presents the application of artificial neural networks in the prediction of severity of breast tumour (whether benign or malignant) using mammography reports and other factors that are related to breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, intelligent classification, neural networks, mammography

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Authors: Irma Andriani, Ita Djuwita, Komar Sumantadinata, Alimuddin

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The recent study has been conducted to develop testicular germ cell transplantation as a tool for preservation and propagation of male germ-plasm from endangered fish species, as well as to produce surrogate broodstock of commercially valuable fish. Giant gourami testis had been used as a model for donor and Nile tilapia larvae as recipient. We developed testicular cell xenotransplantation by optimizing the timing of intraperitoneal cell transplantation to recipient larvae aged 1, 3, 5 and 7 days post hatching (dph). Freshly isolated testis of giant gourami weighing 600–800 g were minced in dissociation medium and then incubated for 3 hours in room temperature to collect monodisperce cell suspension. Donor cells labeled with PKH 26 were transplanted into the peritoneal cavity of Nile tilapia larvae using glass micropipettes. Parameters observed were survival rate of Nile tilapia larvae at 24 hours post transplantation (pt) and colonization efficiency of donor cells at 2 and 3 months pt. The incorporated donor cells were observed under fluorescent microscope. The result showed that the lowest survival rate at 24 hours pt was 1 dph larvae (82.74±6.76%) and the highest survival rate were 3 and 5 dph larvae (95.00±5.00% and 95.00±2.50%, respectively). The highest colonization efficiency was on 3 dph larvae (61.1±34.71%) and the lowest colonization efficiency was on 7 dph larvae (19.43±17.33%). In conclusion, 3 dph Nile tilapia larvae was the best recipient for giant gourami testicular germ cells xenotransplantation.

Keywords: xenotransplantation, testicular germ cell, giant gourami, Nile tilapia, colonization efficiency

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Authors: Yori Gidron, Maartje Mol, Norbert Foudraine, Frits Van Osch, Joop Van Den Bergh, Moshe Farchi, Maud Straus

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Background: The worldwide pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV2), which began in 2019, also known as Covid-19, has infected over 136 million people and tragically took the lives of over 2.9 million people worldwide. Many of the complications and deaths are predicted by the inflammatory “cytokine storm.” One way to progress in the prevention of death is by finding a predictive and protective factor that inhibits inflammation, on the one hand, and which also increases anti-viral immunity on the other hand. The vagal nerve does precisely both actions. This study examined whether vagal nerve activity, indexed by heart-rate variability (HRV), predicts survival in patients with Covid-19. Method: We performed a pseudo-prospective study, where we retroactively obtained ECGs of 271 Covid-19 patients arriving at a large regional hospital in The Netherlands. HRV was indexed by the standard deviation of the intervals between normal heartbeats (SDNN). We examined patients’ survival at 3 weeks and took into account multiple confounders and known prognostic factors (e.g., age, heart disease, diabetes, hypertension). Results: Patients’ mean age was 68 (range: 25-95) and nearly 22% of the patients had died by 3 weeks. Their mean SDNN (17.47msec) was far below the norm (50msec). Importantly, relatively higher HRV significantly predicted a higher chance of survival, after statistically controlling for patients’ age, cardiac diseases, hypertension and diabetes (relative risk, H.R, and 95% confidence interval (95%CI): H.R = 0.49, 95%CI: 0.26 – 0.95, p < 0.05). However, since HRV declines rapidly with age and since age is a profound predictor in Covid-19, we split the sample by median age (40). Subsequently, we found that higher HRV significantly predicted greater survival in patients older than 70 (H.R = 0.35, 95%CI: 0.16 – 0.78, p = 0.01), but HRV did not predict survival in patients below age 70 years (H.R = 1.11, 95%CI: 0.37 – 3.28, p > 0.05). Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study showing that higher vagal nerve activity, as indexed by HRV, is an independent predictor of higher chances for survival in Covid-19. The results are in line with the protective role of the vagal nerve in diseases and extend this to a severe infectious illness. Studies should replicate these findings and then test in controlled trials whether activating the vagus nerve may prevent mortality in Covid-19.

Keywords: Covid-19, heart-rate Variability, prognosis, survival, vagal nerve

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Authors: Hani Belhadj, Daoud Harzallah, Seddik Khennouf, Saliha Dahamna, Mouloud Ghadbane

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In this study, Lactobacillus strains isolated from pollen were identified by means of phenotypic and genotypic methods, At pH 2, most strains proved to be acid resistants, with losses in cell viability ranging from 0.77 to 4.04 Log orders. In addition, at pH 3 all strains could grew and resist the acidic conditions, with losses in cell viability ranging from 0.40 to 3.61 Log orders. It seems that, 0.3% and 0.5% of bile salts does not affect greatly the survival of most strains, excluding Lactobacillus sp. BH1398. Survival ranged from 81.0±3.5 to 93.5±3.9%. In contrast, in the presence of 1.0% bile salts, survival of five strains was decreased by more than 50%. Lactobacillus fermentum BH1509 was considered the most tolerant strain (77.5% for 1% bile) followed by Lactobacillus plantarum BH1541 (59.9% for 1% bile). Furthermore, all strains were resistant to colistine, clindamycine, chloramphenicol, and ciprofloxacine, but most of the strains were susceptible to Peniciline, Oxacillin, Oxytetracyclin, and Amoxicillin. Functionally interesting Lactobacillus isolates may be used in the future as probiotic cultures for manufacturing fermented foods and as bioactive delivery systems.

Keywords: probiotics, lactobacillus, pollen, bile, acid tolerance

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Authors: Naomi Seidu, Edward Poluyi, Chibuikem Ikwuegbuenyi, Eghosa Morgan

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The current poor prognosis of glioblastoma has called for the need for an improvement in treatment methods in order to improve its survival rate. Despite the different interventions currently available for this tumor, the average survival is still only a few months. (12-15). The aim is to create a more favorable prognosis and have a reduction in the resistance to treatment currently being experienced, even with surgical interventions and chemotherapy. From the available literature, there is a relationship between the presence of HOX genes (Homeobox genes) and glioblastoma, which could be attributable to the increasing treatment resistance. Hence silencing these genes can be a key to improving survival rates of glioblastoma. A series of studies have highlighted the role that HOX genes play in glioblastoma prognosis. Promotion of human glioblastoma initiation, aggressiveness, and resistance to Temozolomide has been associated with HOXA9. The role of HOX gene expression in cancer stem cells should be studied as it could provide a means of designing CSC-targeted therapies, as CSCs play a part in the initiation and progression of solid tumors.

Keywords: GBM- glioblastoma, HOXA gene- homeobox genes cluster, signaling pathways, temozolomide

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Authors: Julia B. Kischkat, Charlie D. Waters

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This research aims to understand the factors that may affect the survival and productivity of Pacific salmonids through two components. The first component is lab-based and aims to improve high-performance liquid chromatography to better quantify vitamin deficiencies such as thiamine. The lab work is conducted at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute in Juneau, Alaska. Deficiencies in thiamine have been shown to reduce the survival of salmonids at early life stages. The second component involves the analysis of a 22-year data set of migration timing of juvenile Coho Salmon, Dolly Varden, Steelhead, and returning adult Steelhead at Little Port Walter, Alaska. The statistical analysis quantifies their migration fluctuations and whether they correlate to various environmental conditions such as temperature, salinity, and precipitation.

Keywords: climate change, smolt timing, phenology, migration timing, salmon, time series analysis, ecology, chemistry, fisheries science

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Authors: Osama Shakeel

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The objective of the paper is to study the clinic-pathological factors, survival analyses, recurrence rate, metastatic rate, risk factors and the management of cutaneous malignant melanoma at Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Center. Methodology: From 2014 to 2017, all patients with a diagnosis of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) were included in the study. Demographic variables were collected. Short and long term oncological outcomes were recorded. All data were entered and analyzed in SPSS version 21. Results: A total of 28 patients were included in the study. Median age was 46.5 +/-15.9 years. There were 16 male and 12 female patients. The family history of melanoma was present in 7.1% (n=2) of the patients. All patients had a mean survival of 13.43+/- 9.09 months. Lower limb was the commonest site among all which constitutes 46.4%(n=13). On histopathological analyses, ulceration was seen in 53.6% (n=15) patients. Unclassified tumor type was present in 75%(n=21) of the patients followed by nodular 21.4% (n=6) and superficial spreading 3.5%(n=1). Clark level IV was the commonest presentation constituting 46.4%(n=13). Metastases were seen in 50%(n=14) of the patients. Local recurrence was observed in 60.7%(n=17). 64.3%(n=18) lived after one year of treatment. Conclusion: CMM is a fatal disease. Although its disease of fair skin individuals, however, the incidence of CMM is also rising in this part of the world. Management includes early diagnoses and prompt management. However, mortality associated with this disease is still not favorable.

Keywords: malignant cancer of skin, cutaneous malignant melanoma, skin cancer, survival analyses

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Authors: Ugbor Raphael Oluchukwu

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The survey research design was adopted to examine whether liquidity and cash management practices of owner-managed firms in South East Nigeria influence their profitability, growth and survival. Four independent variables (accounting systems, working capital management, budgetary control, and managerial planning) were used in the evaluation which was restricted to eight small firms. Results indicate that one variable, working capital management alone dominate the liquidity perception of owner managers. As a result, owner managers find it difficult to meet maturing business obligations as growth sets in. The study also reveals that the four independent variables have significant impact on the profitability, growth and survival of owner managed firms. Owner managers are therefore advised to undertake regular entrepreneurship training in order to upgrade their liquidity and cash management knowledge and practices to enhance their overall performance.

Keywords: liquidity management, owner-managed firm, profitability, survival

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Authors: Omar Alhamd, Peter A. Thomas, Trevor J. Greenhough, Annette K. Shrive

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The Pseudomonas syringae species complex includes many plant pathogenic strains with highly specific interactions with varied host species and cultivars. The rapid spread of these bacteria over the last ten years has become a cause for concern. Nanoparticles have previously shown promise in microbiological action. We have therefore investigated in vitro and in vivo the effects of different types and sizes of nanoparticles in order to provide quantitative information about their effect on the bacteria. The effects of several different nanoparticles against several bacteria strains were investigated. The effect of NP on bacterial growth was studied by measuring the optical density, biochemical and nutritional tests, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to determine the shape and size of NP. Our results indicate that their effects varied, with either a negative or a positive impact on both bacterial and plant growth. Additionally, the methods of exposure to nanoparticles have a crucial role in accumulation, translocation, growth response and bacterial growth. The results of our studies on the behaviour and effects of nanoparticles in model plants showed. Cerium oxide (CeO₂) and silver (Ag) NP showed significant antibacterial activity against several pathogenic bacteria. It was found that titanium nanoparticles (TiO₂) can have either a negative or a positive impact, according to concentration and size. It is also thought that environmental conditions can have a major influence on bacterial growth. Studies were therefore also carried out under some environmental stress conditions to test bacterial survival and to assess bacterial virulence. All results will be presented including information about the effects of different nanoparticles on Pseudomonas syringae bacteria.

Keywords: plant microbiome, nanoparticles, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, bacterial survival

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Authors: Shizrah Jamal, Robia Ghafoor, Farhan Raza

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Porcelain fused to metal crown is the most versatile variety of crown that is commonly placed worldwide. Various complications have been reported in the PFM crowns with use over the period of time. These include chipping of the porcelain, recurrent caries, loss of retention, open contacts, and tooth fracture. The objective of the present study was to determine the frequency of these complications in crowns cemented over a period of five years in a tertiary care hospital and also to report the survival of these crowns. A retrospective study was conducted in Dental clinics, Aga Khan University Hospital in which 150 PFM crowns cemented over a period of five years were evaluated. Patient demographics, oral hygiene habits, para-functional habits, crown insertion and follow-up dates were recorded in a specially designed proforma. All PFM crowns fulfilling the inclusion criteria were assessed both clinically and radiographically for the presence of any complication. SPSS version 22.0 was used for statistical analysis. Frequency distribution and proportion of complications were determined. Chi-square test was used to determine the association of complications of PFM crowns with multiple variables including tooth wear, opposing dentition and betel nut chewing. Kaplan- meier survival analysis was used to determine the survival of PFM crowns over the period of five years. Level of significance was kept at 0.05. A total of 107 patients, with a mean age of 43.51 + 12.4 years, having 150 PFM crowns were evaluated. The most common complication observed was open proximal contacts (8.7%) followed by porcelain chipping (6%), decementation (5.3%), and abutment fracture (1.3%). Chi square test showed that there was no statistically significant association of PFM crown complication with tooth wear, betel nut and opposing dentition (p-value <0.05). The overall success and survival rates of PFM crowns turned out to be 78.7 and 84.7% respectively. Within the limitations of the study, it can be concluded that PFM crowns are an effective treatment modality with high success and survival rates. Since it was a single centered study; the results should be generalized with caution.

Keywords: chipping, complication, crown, survival rate

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Jaewoo Choi, Ki-Tae Hwang, Eunyoung Ko

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Backgrounds/Aims: Patients with breast cancer are currently classified according to TNM stage. Nevertheless, the actual volume would be mis-estimated, and it would bring on inappropriate diagnosis. Tridimensional volume-stage derived from the ellipsoid formula was presented as useful measure. Methods: The medical records of 480 consecutive breast cancer between January 2001 and March 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients were divided into three groups according to tumor volume by receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the ranges of each volume-stage were that V1 was below 2.5 cc, V2 was exceeded 2.5 and below 10.9 cc, and V3 was exceeded 10.9 cc. We analyzed outcomes of volume-stage and compared disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) between size-stage and volume-stage with variant intrinsic factor. Results: In the T2 stage, there were patients who had a smaller volume than 4.2 cc known as maximum value of T1. These findings presented that patients in T1c had poorer DFS than T2-lesser (mean of DFS 48.7 vs. 51.8, p = 0.011). Such is also the case in OS (mean of OS 51.1 vs. 55.3, p = 0.006). The cumulative survival curves for V1, V2 compared T1, T2 showed similarity in DFS (HR 1.9 vs. 1.9), and so did it for V3 compared T3 (HR 3.5 vs. 2.6) significantly. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that tumor volume had good feasibility on the prognosis of patients with breast cancer. We proposed that volume-stage should be considered for an additional stage indicator, particularly in early breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, tridimensional volume of tumor, TNM stage, volume stage

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