Search results for: stochastic volatility

Authors: Deni̇z Ezgi̇ Gülmez, Mesut Kirca

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Nanoporous (np) metals have attracted considerable attention owing to their cellular morphological features at atomistic scale which yield ultra-high specific surface area awarding a great potential to be employed in diverse applications such as catalytic, electrocatalytic, sensing, mechanical and optical. As one of the carbon based nanostructures, fullerenes are also another type of outstanding nanomaterials that have been extensively investigated due to their remarkable chemical, mechanical and optical properties. In this study, the idea of improving the mechanical behavior of nanoporous metals by inclusion of the fullerenes, which offers a new metal-carbon nanocomposite material, is examined and discussed. With this motivation, tensile mechanical behavior of nanoporous metals reinforced with carbon fullerenes is investigated by classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Atomistic models of the nanoporous metals with ultrathin ligaments are obtained through a stochastic process simply based on the intersection of spherical volumes which has been used previously in literature. According to this technique, the atoms within the ensemble of intersecting spherical volumes is removed from the pristine solid block of the selected metal, which results in porous structures with spherical cells. Following this, fullerene units are added into the cellular voids to obtain final atomistic configurations for the numerical tensile tests. Several numerical specimens are prepared with different number of fullerenes per cell and with varied fullerene sizes. LAMMPS code was used to perform classical MD simulations to conduct uniaxial tension experiments on np models filled by fullerenes. The interactions between the metal atoms are modeled by using embedded atomic method (EAM) while adaptive intermolecular reactive empirical bond order (AIREBO) potential is employed for the interaction of carbon atoms. Furthermore, atomic interactions between the metal and carbon atoms are represented by Lennard-Jones potential with appropriate parameters. In conclusion, the ultimate goal of the study is to present the effects of fullerenes embedded into the cellular structure of np metals on the tensile response of the porous metals. The results are believed to be informative and instructive for the experimentalists to synthesize hybrid nanoporous materials with improved properties and multifunctional characteristics.

Keywords: fullerene, intersecting spheres, molecular dynamic, nanoporous metals

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Gleyce Assis Da Silva Barbosa

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In recent years, we have witnessed a vertiginous growth of large education companies. Daughters of national and world capital, these companies expand both through consolidated physical networks in the form of branches spread across the territory and through institutional networks such as business networks through mergers, acquisitions, creation of new companies and influence. They do this by incorporating small, medium and large schools and universities, teaching systems and other products and services. They are also able to weave their webs directly or indirectly in philanthropic circles, limited partnerships, family businesses and even in public education through various mechanisms of outsourcing, privatization and commercialization of products for the sector. Although the growth of these groups in basic education seems to us a recent phenomenon in peripheral countries such as Brazil, its diffusion is closely linked to higher education conglomerates and other sectors of the economy forming oligopolies, which began to expand in the 1990s with strong state support and through political reforms that redefined its role, transforming it into a fundamental agent in the formation of guidelines to boost the incorporation of neoliberal logic. This expansion occurred through the objectification of education, commodifying it and transforming students into consumer clients. Financial power combined with the neo-liberalization of state public policies allowed the profusion of social exclusion, the increase of individuals without access to basic services, deindustrialization, automation, capital volatility and the indetermination of the economy; in addition, this process causes capital to be valued and devalued at rates never seen before, which together generates various impacts such as the precariousness of work. Understanding the connection between these processes, which engender the economy, allows us to see their consequences in labor relations and in the territory. In this sense, it is necessary to analyze the geographic-economic context and the role of the facilitating agents of this process, which can give us clues about the ongoing transformations and the directions of education in the national and even international scenario since this process is linked to the multiple scales of financial globalization. Therefore, the present research has the general objective of analyzing the socio-spatial impacts of financialization and the formation of oligopolies in Brazilian basic education. For this, the survey of laws, data, and public policies on the subject in question was used as a methodology. As a methodology, the work was based on some data from these companies available on websites for investors. Survey of information from global and national companies that operate in Brazilian basic education. In addition to mapping the expansion of educational oligopolies using public data on the location of schools. With this, the research intends to provide information about the ongoing commodification process in the country. Discuss the consequences of the oligopolization of education, considering the impacts that financialization can bring to teaching work.

Keywords: financialization, oligopolies, education, Brazil

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

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The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

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While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Madjid Karimirad

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Floating solar was not very well-known in the renewable energy field a decade ago; however, there has been tremendous growth internationally with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of nearly 30% in recent years. To reach the goal of global net-zero emission by 2050, all renewable energy sources including solar should be used. Considering that 40% of the world’s population lives within 100 kilometres of the coasts, floating solar in coastal waters is an obvious energy solution. However, this requires more robust floating solar solutions. This paper tries to enlighten the fundamental requirements in the design of floating solar for offshore installations from the hydrodynamic and offshore engineering points of view. In this regard, a closer look at dynamic characteristics, stochastic behaviour and nonlinear phenomena appearing in this kind of structure is a major focus of the current article. Floating solar structures are alternative and very attractive green energy installations with (a) Less strain on land usage for densely populated areas; (b) Natural cooling effect with efficiency gain; and (c) Increased irradiance from the reflectivity of water. Also, floating solar in conjunction with the hydroelectric plants can optimise energy efficiency and improve system reliability. The co-locating of floating solar units with other types such as offshore wind, wave energy, tidal turbines as well as aquaculture (fish farming) can result in better ocean space usage and increase the synergies. Floating solar technology has seen considerable developments in installed capacities in the past decade. Development of design standards and codes of practice for floating solar technologies deployed on both inland water-bodies and offshore is required to ensure robust and reliable systems that do not have detrimental impacts on the hosting water body. Floating solar will account for 17% of all PV energy produced worldwide by 2030. To enhance the development, further research in this area is needed. This paper aims to discuss the main critical design aspects in light of the load and load effects that the floating solar platforms are subjected to. The key considerations in hydrodynamics, aerodynamics and simultaneous effects from the wind and wave load actions will be discussed. The link of dynamic nonlinear loading, limit states and design space considering the environmental conditions is set to enable a better understanding of the design requirements of fast-evolving floating solar technology.

Keywords: floating solar, offshore renewable energy, wind and wave loading, design space

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Hamed Kalhori, Lin Ye

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In this study, an inverse method was developed to reconstruct the magnitude and duration of impact forces exerted to a rectangular carbon fibre-epoxy composite honeycomb sandwich panel. The dynamic signals captured by Piezoelectric (PZT) sensors installed on the panel remotely from the impact locations were utilized to reconstruct the impact force generated by an instrumented hammer through an extended deconvolution approach. Two discretized forms of convolution integral are considered; the traditional one with an explicit transfer function and the modified one without an explicit transfer function. Deconvolution, usually applied to reconstruct the time history (e.g. magnitude) of a stochastic force at a defined location, is extended to identify both the location and magnitude of the impact force among a number of potential impact locations. It is assumed that a number of impact forces are simultaneously exerted to all potential locations, but the magnitude of all forces except one is zero, implicating that the impact occurs only at one location. The extended deconvolution is then applied to determine the magnitude as well as location (among the potential ones), incorporating the linear superposition of responses resulted from impact at each potential location. The problem can be categorized into under-determined (the number of sensors is less than that of impact locations), even-determined (the number of sensors equals that of impact locations), or over-determined (the number of sensors is greater than that of impact locations) cases. For an under-determined case, it comprises three potential impact locations and one PZT sensor for the rectangular carbon fibre-epoxy composite honeycomb sandwich panel. Assessments are conducted to evaluate the factors affecting the precision of the reconstructed force. Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) and the Tikhonov regularization are independently chosen to regularize the problem to find the most suitable method for this system. The selection of optimal value of the regularization parameter is investigated through L-curve and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) methods. In addition, the effect of different width of signal windows on the reconstructed force is examined. It is observed that the impact force generated by the instrumented impact hammer is sensitive to the impact locations of the structure, having a shape from a simple half-sine to a complicated one. The accuracy of the reconstructed impact force is evaluated using the correlation co-efficient between the reconstructed force and the actual one. Based on this criterion, it is concluded that the forces reconstructed by using the extended deconvolution without an explicit transfer function together with Tikhonov regularization match well with the actual forces in terms of magnitude and duration.

Keywords: honeycomb composite panel, deconvolution, impact localization, force reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 508

Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Kollie B. Dogba, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Chepchumba Chumo

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In Liberia, many of the agricultural households cultivate cassava for either sustenance purposes, or to generate farm income. Many of the concentrated cassava farmers reside in Nimba, a north-eastern County that borders two other economies: the Republics of Cote D’Ivoire and Guinea. With a high demand for cassava output and products in emerging Asian markets coupled with an objective of the Liberia agriculture policies to increase the competitiveness of valued agriculture crops; there is a need to examine the level of resource-use efficiency for many agriculture crops. However, there is a scarcity of information on the efficiency of many agriculture crops, including cassava. Hence the study applying an output-oriented method seeks to assess the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba County, Liberia. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to generate a sample for the study. From 216 cassava farmers, data related to on-farm attributes, socio-economic and institutional factors were collected. The stochastic frontier models, using the Translog functional forms, of production and revenue, were used to determine the level of revenue efficiency and its determinants. The result showed that most of the cassava farmers are male (60%). Many of the farmers are either married, engaged or living together with a spouse (83%), with a mean household size of nine persons. Farmland is prevalently obtained by inheritance (95%), average farm size is 1.34 hectares, and most cassava farmers did not access agriculture credits (76%) and extension services (91%). The mean cassava output per hectare is 1,506.02 kg, which estimates average revenue of L$23,551.16 (Liberian dollars). Empirical results showed that the revenue efficiency of cassava farmers varies from 0.1% to 73.5%; with the mean revenue efficiency of 12.9%. This indicates that on average, there is a vast potential of 87.1% to increase the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba by improving technical and allocative efficiencies. For the significant determinants of revenue efficiency, age and group membership had negative effects on revenue efficiency of cassava production; while farming experience, access to extension, formal education, and average wage rate have positive effects. The study recommends the setting-up and incentivizing of farmer field schools for cassava farmers to primarily share their farming experiences with others and to learn robust cultivation techniques of sustainable agriculture. Also, farm managers and farmers should consider a fix wage rate in labor contracts for all stages of cassava farming.

Keywords: economic efficiency, frontier production and revenue functions, Nimba County, Liberia, output-oriented approach, revenue efficiency, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: G. Kiran Kumar, K. Padmaja

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The rise of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) is an important urban phenomenon that needs to be well understood before we pronounce a verdict whether it is beneficial or not. The challenge of supply of safe and nutritious food is faced by urban inhabitants. The definition of urban and peri-urban varies from city to city depending on the local policies framed with a view to bring regulated urban habitations as part of governance. Expansion of cities and the blurring of boundaries between urban and rural areas make it difficult to define peri-urban agriculture. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that definition adopted in one region may not fit in the other. On the other hand the proportion of urban population is on the rise vis-à-vis rural. The rise of UPA does not promise that the food requirements of cities can be entirely met from this practice, since availability of enormous amounts of spaces on rooftops and vacant plots is impossible for raising crops. However, UPA reduces impact of price volatility, particularly for vegetables, which relatively have a longer shelf life. UPA improves access to fresh, nutritious and safe food for the urban poor. UPA provides employment to food handlers and traders in the supply chain. UPA can pose environmental and health risks from inappropriate agricultural practices; increased competition for land, water and energy; alter the ecological landscape and make it vulnerable to increased pollution. The present work is based on case studies in peri-urban agriculture in Hyderabad, India and relies on secondary data. This paper tries to analyze the need for more intensive production technologies without affecting the environment. An optimal solution in terms of urban-rural linkages has to be devised. There is a need to develop a spatial vision and integrate UPA in urban planning in a harmonious manner. Zoning of peri-urban areas for agriculture, milk and poultry production is an essential step to preserve the traditional nurturing character of these areas. Urban local bodies in conjunction with Departments of Agriculture and Horticulture can provide uplift to existing UPA models, without which the UPA can develop into a haphazard phenomenon and add to the increasing list of urban challenges. Land to be diverted for peri-urban agriculture may render the concept of urban and peri-urban forestry ineffective. This paper suggests that UPA may be practiced for high value vegetables which can be cultivated under protected conditions and are better resilient to climate change. UPA can provide models for climate resilient agriculture in urban areas which can be replicated in rural areas. Production of organic farm produce is another option for promote UPA owing to the proximity to informed consumers and access to markets within close range. Waste lands in peri-urban areas can be allotted to unemployed rural youth with the support of Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) and used for UPA. This can serve the purposes of putting wastelands to food production, enhancing employment opportunities and enhancing access to fresh produce for urban consumers.

Keywords: environment, food security, urban and peri-urban agriculture, zoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Elena Selezneva

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Over the last two decades, an unprecedented growth in uncertainty and volatility in all aspects of the business environment has caused major global supply chain disruptions and malfunctions. The effects of one failed company in a supply chain can ripple up and down the chain, causing a number of entities or an entire supply chain to collapse. The complicating factor is that an increasingly unstable and unpredictable business environment fuels the growing complexity of global supply chain networks. That makes supply chain operations extremely unpredictable and hard to manage with the established methods and strategies. It has caused the premature demise of many companies around the globe as they could not withstand or adapt to the storm of change. Solutions to this problem are not easy to come by. There is a lack of new empirically tested theories and practically viable supply chain resilience strategies. The mainstream organizational approach to managing supply chain resilience is rooted in well-established theories developed in the 1960-1980s. However, their effectiveness is questionable in currently extremely volatile business environments. The systems thinking approach offers an alternative view of supply chain resilience. Still, it is very much in the development stage. The aim of this explorative research is to investigate supply chain management strategies that are successful in taming complexity in volatile business environments and creating resilience in supply chains. The design of this research methodology was guided by an interpretivist paradigm. A literature review informed the selection of the systems thinking approach to supply chain resilience. Therefore, an explorative single case study of Ventilator Challenge UK was selected as a case study for its extremely resilient performance of its supply chain during a period of national crisis. Ventilator Challenge UK is intensive care ventilators supply project for the NHS. It ran for 3.5 months and finished in 2020. The participants moved on with their lives, and most of them are not employed by the same organizations anymore. Therefore, the study data includes documents, historical interviews, live interviews with participants, and social media postings. The data analysis was accomplished in two stages. First, data were thematically analyzed. In the second stage, pattern matching and pattern identification were used to identify themes that formed the findings of the research. The findings from the Ventilator Challenge UK case study supply management practices demonstrated all the features of an adaptive dynamic system. They cover all the elements of supply chain and employ an entire arsenal of adaptive dynamic system strategies enabling supply chain resilience. Also, it is not a simple sum of parts and strategies. Bonding elements and connections between the components of a supply chain and its environment enabled the amplification of resilience in the form of systemic emergence. Enablers are categorized into three subsystems: supply chain central strategy, supply chain operations, and supply chain communications. Together, these subsystems and their interconnections form the resilient supply chain system framework conceptualized by the author.

Keywords: enablers of supply chain resilience, supply chain resilience strategies, systemic approach in supply chain management, resilient supply chain system framework, ventilator challenge UK

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Kristina Pflug, Markus Busch

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Being able to predict polymer properties and processing behavior based on the applied operating reaction conditions in one of the key challenges in modern polymer reaction engineering. Especially, for cost-intensive processes such as the high-pressure polymerization of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) with high safety-requirements, the need for simulation-based process optimization and product design is high. A multi-scale modelling approach was set-up and validated via a series of high-pressure mini-plant autoclave reactor experiments. The approach starts with the numerical modelling of the complex reaction network of the LDPE polymerization taking into consideration the actual reaction conditions. While this gives average product properties, the complex polymeric microstructure including random short- and long-chain branching is calculated via a hybrid Monte Carlo-approach. Finally, the processing behavior of LDPE -its melt flow behavior- is determined in dependence of the previously determined polymeric microstructure using the branch on branch algorithm for randomly branched polymer systems. All three steps of the multi-scale modelling approach can be independently validated against analytical data. A triple-detector GPC containing an IR, viscosimetry and multi-angle light scattering detector is applied. It serves to determine molecular weight distributions as well as chain-length dependent short- and long-chain branching frequencies. 13C-NMR measurements give average branching frequencies, and rheological measurements in shear and extension serve to characterize the polymeric flow behavior. The accordance of experimental and modelled results was found to be extraordinary, especially taking into consideration that the applied multi-scale modelling approach does not contain parameter fitting of the data. This validates the suggested approach and proves its universality at the same time. In the next step, the modelling approach can be applied to other reactor types, such as tubular reactors or industrial scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis for systematically varying process conditions is easily feasible. The developed multi-scale modelling approach finally gives the opportunity to predict and design LDPE processing behavior simply based on process conditions such as feed streams and inlet temperatures and pressures.

Keywords: low-density polyethylene, multi-scale modelling, polymer properties, reaction engineering, rheology

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Jie Liu, Jinqu Cheng, Qiyuan Peng, Yong Yin

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Urban rail transit (URT) plays a significant role in dealing with traffic congestion and environmental problems in cities. However, equipment failure and obstruction of links often lead to URT links’ capacities loss in daily operation. It affects the reliability and transport service quality of URT network seriously. In order to measure the influence of links’ capacities loss on reliability and transport service quality of URT network, passengers are divided into three categories in case of links’ capacities loss. Passengers in category 1 are less affected by the loss of links’ capacities. Their travel is reliable since their travel quality is not significantly reduced. Passengers in category 2 are affected by the loss of links’ capacities heavily. Their travel is not reliable since their travel quality is reduced seriously. However, passengers in category 2 still can travel on URT. Passengers in category 3 can not travel on URT because their travel paths’ passenger flow exceeds capacities. Their travel is not reliable. Thus, the proportion of passengers in category 1 whose travel is reliable is defined as reliability indicator of URT network. The transport service quality of URT network is related to passengers’ travel time, passengers’ transfer times and whether seats are available to passengers. The generalized travel cost is a comprehensive reflection of travel time, transfer times and travel comfort. Therefore, passengers’ average generalized travel cost is used as transport service quality indicator of URT network. The impact of links’ capacities loss on transport service quality of URT network is measured with passengers’ relative average generalized travel cost with and without links’ capacities loss. The proportion of the passengers affected by links and betweenness of links are used to determine the important links in URT network. The stochastic user equilibrium distribution model based on the improved logit model is used to determine passengers’ categories and calculate passengers’ generalized travel cost in case of links’ capacities loss, which is solved with method of successive weighted averages algorithm. The reliability and transport service quality indicators of URT network are calculated with the solution result. Taking Wuhan Metro as a case, the reliability and transport service quality of Wuhan metro network is measured with indicators and method proposed in this paper. The result shows that using the proportion of the passengers affected by links can identify important links effectively which have great influence on reliability and transport service quality of URT network; The important links are mostly connected to transfer stations and the passenger flow of important links is high; With the increase of number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss, the reliability of the network keeps decreasing, the proportion of passengers in category 3 keeps increasing and the proportion of passengers in category 2 increases at first and then decreases; When the number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss increased to a certain level, the decline of transport service quality is weakened.

Keywords: urban rail transit network, reliability, transport service quality, links’ capacities loss, important links

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Vladimir Smirnov, Roman Tominov, Vadim Avilov, Oleg Ageev

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The creation of a new generation micro- and nanoelectronics elements opens up unlimited possibilities for electronic devices parameters improving, as well as developing neuromorphic computing systems. Interest in the latter is growing up every year, which is explained by the need to solve problems related to the unstructured classification of data, the construction of self-adaptive systems, and pattern recognition. However, for its technical implementation, it is necessary to fulfill a number of conditions for the basic parameters of electronic memory, such as the presence of non-volatility, the presence of multi-bitness, high integration density, and low power consumption. Several types of memory are presented in the electronics industry (MRAM, FeRAM, PRAM, ReRAM), among which non-volatile resistive memory (ReRAM) is especially distinguished due to the presence of multi-bit property, which is necessary for neuromorphic systems manufacturing. ReRAM is based on the effect of resistive switching – a change in the resistance of the oxide film between low-resistance state (LRS) and high-resistance state (HRS) under an applied electric field. One of the methods for the technical implementation of neuromorphic systems is cross-bar structures, which are ReRAM cells, interconnected by cross data buses. Such a structure imitates the architecture of the biological brain, which contains a low power computing elements - neurons, connected by special channels - synapses. The choice of the ReRAM oxide film material is an important task that determines the characteristics of the future neuromorphic system. An analysis of literature showed that many metal oxides (TiO2, ZnO, NiO, ZrO2, HfO2) have a resistive switching effect. It is worth noting that the manufacture of nanocomposites based on these materials allows highlighting the advantages and hiding the disadvantages of each material. Therefore, as a basis for the neuromorphic structures manufacturing, it was decided to use ZnₓTiᵧHfzOᵢ nanocomposite. It is also worth noting that the ZnₓTiᵧHfzOᵢ nanocomposite does not need an electroforming, which degrades the parameters of the formed ReRAM elements. Currently, this material is not well studied, therefore, the study of the effect of resistive switching in forming-free ZnₓTiᵧHfzOᵢ nanocomposite is an important task and the goal of this work. Forming-free nanocomposite ZnₓTiᵧHfzOᵢ thin film was grown by pulsed laser deposition (Pioneer 180, Neocera Co., USA) on the SiO2/TiN (40 nm) substrate. Electrical measurements were carried out using a semiconductor characterization system (Keithley 4200-SCS, USA) with W probes. During measurements, TiN film was grounded. The analysis of the obtained current-voltage characteristics showed a resistive switching from HRS to LRS resistance states at +1.87±0.12 V, and from LRS to HRS at -2.71±0.28 V. Endurance test shown that HRS was 283.21±32.12 kΩ, LRS was 1.32±0.21 kΩ during 100 measurements. It was shown that HRS/LRS ratio was about 214.55 at reading voltage of 0.6 V. The results can be useful for forming-free nanocomposite ZnₓTiᵧHfzOᵢ films in neuromorphic systems manufacturing. This work was supported by RFBR, according to the research project № 19-29-03041 mk. The results were obtained using the equipment of the Research and Education Center «Nanotechnologies» of Southern Federal University.

Keywords: nanotechnology, nanocomposites, neuromorphic systems, RRAM, pulsed laser deposition, resistive switching effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cerdova

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The contamination of food by microbial agents is a common problem in the industry, especially regarding the elaboration of animal source products. Incorrect manipulation of the machinery or on the raw materials can cause a decrease in production or an epidemiological outbreak due to intoxication. In order to improve food product quality, different methods have been used to reduce or, at least, to slow down the growth of the pathogens, especially deteriorated, infectious or toxigenic bacteria. These methods are usually carried out under low temperatures and short processing time (abiotic agents), along with the application of antibacterial substances, such as bacteriocins (biotic agents). This, in a controlled and efficient way that fulfills the purpose of bacterial control without damaging the final product. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to design a secondary mathematical model that allows the prediction of both the biotic and abiotic factor impact associated with animal source food processing. In order to accomplish this objective, the authors propose a three-dimensional differential equation model, whose components are: bacterial growth, release, production and artificial incorporation of bacteriocins and changes in pH levels of the medium. These three dimensions are constantly being influenced by the temperature of the medium. Secondly, this model adapts to an idealized situation of cross-contamination animal source food processing, with the study agents being both the animal product and the contact surface. Thirdly, the stochastic simulations and the parametric sensibility analysis are compared with referential data. The main results obtained from the analysis and simulations of the mathematical model were to discover that, although bacterial growth can be stopped in lower temperatures, even lower ones are needed to eradicate it. However, this can be not only expensive, but counterproductive as well in terms of the quality of the raw materials and, on the other hand, higher temperatures accelerate bacterial growth. In other aspects, the use and efficiency of bacteriocins are an effective alternative in the short and medium terms. Moreover, an indicator of bacterial growth is a low-level pH, since lots of deteriorating bacteria are lactic acids. Lastly, the processing times are a secondary agent of concern when the rest of the aforementioned agents are under control. Our main conclusion is that when acclimating a mathematical model within the context of the industrial process, it can generate new tools that predict bacterial contamination, the impact of bacterial inhibition, and processing method times. In addition, the mathematical modeling proposed logistic input of broad application, which can be replicated on non-meat food products, other pathogens or even on contamination by crossed contact of allergen foods.

Keywords: bacteriocins, cross-contamination, mathematical model, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Abderrahmane Soufi

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The building sector is the largest consumer of energy in France, accounting for 44% of French consumption. To reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, France implemented an energy transition law targeting 40% energy savings by 2030 in the tertiary building sector. Building simulation tools are used to predict the energy performance of buildings but the reliability of these tools is hampered by discrepancies between the real and simulated energy performance of a building. This performance gap lies in the simplified assumptions of certain factors, such as the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating, which is considered deterministic when setting a fixed operating schedule and a fixed interior comfort temperature. However, the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating is stochastic, diverse, and complex because it can be affected by many factors. Probabilistic models are an alternative to deterministic models. These models are usually derived from statistical data and express occupant behavior by assuming a probabilistic relationship to one or more variables. In the literature, logistic regression has been used to model the behavior of occupants with regard to heating and air conditioning systems by considering univariate logistic models in residential buildings; however, few studies have developed multivariate models for higher education and vocational training buildings in a Mediterranean climate. Therefore, in this study, occupant behavior on heating and air conditioning systems was modeled using logistic regression. Occupant behavior related to the turn-on heating and air conditioning systems was studied through experimental measurements collected over a period of one year (June 2023–June 2024) in three classrooms occupied by several groups of students in engineering schools and professional training. Instrumentation was provided to collect indoor temperature and indoor relative humidity in 10-min intervals. Furthermore, the state of the heating/air conditioning system (off or on) and the set point were determined. The outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected as weather data. The number of occupants, age, and sex were also considered. Logistic regression was used for modeling an occupant turning on the heating and air conditioning systems. The results yielded a proposed model that can be used in building simulation tools to predict the energy performance of teaching buildings. Based on the first months (summer and early autumn) of the investigations, the results illustrate that the occupant behavior of the air conditioning systems is affected by the indoor relative humidity and temperature in June, July, and August and by the indoor relative humidity, temperature, and number of occupants in September and October. Occupant behavior was analyzed monthly, and univariate and multivariate models were developed.

Keywords: occupant behavior, logistic regression, behavior model, mediterranean climate, air conditioning, heating

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Vladimir A. Basiuk, Laura J. Flores-Sanchez, Victor Meza-Laguna, Jose O. Flores-Flores, Lauro Bucio-Galindo, Elena V. Basiuk

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Noncovalent nanohybrid materials combining carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with phthalocyanines (Pcs) is a subject of increasing research effort, with a particular emphasis on the design of new heterogeneous catalysts, efficient organic photovoltaic cells, lithium batteries, gas sensors, field effect transistors, among other possible applications. The possibility of using unsubstituted Pcs for CNT functionalization is very attractive due to their very moderate cost and easy commercial availability. However, unfortunately, the deposition of unsubstituted Pcs onto nanotube sidewalls through the traditional liquid-phase protocols turns to be very problematic due to extremely poor solubility of Pcs. On the other hand, unsubstituted free-base H₂Pc phthalocyanine ligand, as well as many of its transition metal complexes, exhibit very high thermal stability and considerable volatility under reduced pressure, which opens the possibility for their physical vapor deposition onto solid surfaces, including nanotube sidewalls. In the present work, we show the possibility of simple, fast and efficient noncovalent functionalization of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) with a series of 3d metal(II) phthalocyanines Me(II)Pc, where Me= Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn. The functionalization can be performed in a temperature range of 400-500 °C under moderate vacuum and requires about 2-3 h only. The functionalized materials obtained were characterized by means of Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), Raman, UV-visible and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM and TEM, respectively) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). TGA suggested that Me(II)Pc weight content is 30%, 17% and 35% for NiPc, CuPc, and ZnPc, respectively (CoPc exhibited anomalous thermal decomposition behavior). The above values are consistent with those estimated from EDS spectra, namely, of 24-39%, 27-36% and 27-44% for CoPc, CuPc, and ZnPc, respectively. A strong increase in intensity of D band in the Raman spectra of SWNT‒Me(II)Pc hybrids, as compared to that of pristine nanotubes, implies very strong interactions between Pc molecules and SWNT sidewalls. Very high absolute values of binding energies of 32.46-37.12 kcal/mol and the highest occupied and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO and LUMO, respectively) distribution patterns, calculated with density functional theory by using Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof general gradient approximation correlation functional in combination with the Grimme’s empirical dispersion correction (PBE-D) and the double numerical basis set (DNP), also suggested that the interactions between Me(II) phthalocyanines and nanotube sidewalls are very strong. The authors thank the National Autonomous University of Mexico (grant DGAPA-IN200516) and the National Council of Science and Technology of Mexico (CONACYT, grant 250655) for financial support. The authors are also grateful to Dr. Natalia Alzate-Carvajal (CCADET of UNAM), Eréndira Martínez (IF of UNAM) and Iván Puente-Lee (Faculty of Chemistry of UNAM) for technical assistance with FTIR, TGA measurements, and TEM imaging, respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, functionalization, gas-phase, metal(II) phthalocyanines

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway networks play a vital role in post-disaster recovery for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such networks can disrupt the recovery activities by impeding the transportation of people, cargo, and reconstruction resources. Therefore, rapid restoration of damaged bridges is of paramount importance to long-term disaster recovery. In the post-disaster recovery phase, the key to restoration scheduling for a highway network is prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. Resilience is widely used as a measure of the ability to recover with which a network can return to its pre-disaster level of functionality. In practice, highways will be temporarily blocked during the downtime of bridge restoration, leading to the decrease of highway-network functionality. The failure to take downtime effects into account can lead to overestimation of network resilience. Additionally, post-disaster recovery of highway networks is generally divided into emergency bridge repair (EBR) in the response phase and long-term bridge repair (LBR) in the recovery phase, and both of EBR and LBR are different in terms of restoration objectives, restoration duration, budget, etc. Distinguish these two phases are important to precisely quantify highway network resilience and generate suitable restoration schedules for highway networks in the recovery phase. To address the above issues, this study proposes a novel resilience quantification method for the optimization of long-term bridge repair schedules (LBRS) taking into account the impact of EBR activities and restoration downtime on a highway network’s functionality. A time-dependent integer program with recursive functions is formulated for optimally scheduling LBR activities. Moreover, since uncertainty always exists in the LBRS problem, this paper extends the optimization model from the deterministic case to the stochastic case. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. The proposed methods are tested using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that, in this case, neglecting the bridge restoration downtime can lead to approximately 15% overestimation of highway network resilience. Moreover, accounting for the impact of EBR on network functionality can help to generate a more specific and reasonable LBRS. The theoretical and practical values are as follows. First, the proposed network recovery curve contributes to comprehensive quantification of highway network resilience by accounting for the impact of both restoration downtime and EBR activities on the recovery curves. Moreover, this study can improve the highway network resilience from the organizational dimension by providing bridge managers with optimal LBR strategies.

Keywords: disaster management, highway network, long-term bridge repair schedule, resilience, restoration downtime

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Satish Kumar, Nisha Goyal

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In the stock market, individual investors exhibit different kinds of behaviour. Traditional finance is built on the notion of 'homo economics', which states that humans always make perfectly rational choices to maximize their wealth and minimize risk. That is, traditional finance has concern for how investors should behave rather than how actual investors are behaving. Behavioural finance provides the explanation for this phenomenon. Although finance has been studied for thousands of years, behavioural finance is an emerging field that combines the behavioural or psychological aspects with conventional economic and financial theories to provide explanations on how emotions and cognitive factors influence investors’ behaviours. These emotions and cognitive factors are known as behavioural biases. Because of these biases, investors make irrational investment decisions. Besides, the emotional and cognitive factors, the social influence of media as well as friends, relatives and colleagues also affect investment decisions. Psychological factors influence individual investors’ investment decision making, but few studies have used qualitative methods to understand these factors. The aim of this study is to explore the behavioural factors or biases that affect individuals’ investment decision making. For the purpose of this exploratory study, an in-depth interview method was used because it provides much more exhaustive information and a relaxed atmosphere in which people feel more comfortable to provide information. Twenty investment advisors having a minimum 5 years’ experience in securities firms were interviewed. In this study, thematic content analysis was used to analyse interview transcripts. Thematic content analysis process involves analysis of transcripts, coding and identification of themes from data. Based on the analysis we categorized the statements of advisors into various themes. Past market returns and volatility; preference for safe returns; tendency to believe they are better than others; tendency to divide their money into different accounts/assets; tendency to hold on to loss-making assets; preference to invest in familiar securities; tendency to believe that past events were predictable; tendency to rely on the reference point; tendency to rely on other sources of information; tendency to have regret for making past decisions; tendency to have more sensitivity towards losses than gains; tendency to rely on own skills; tendency to buy rising stocks with the expectation that this rise will continue etc. are some of the major concerns showed by experts about investors. The findings of the study revealed 13 biases such as overconfidence bias, disposition effect, familiarity bias, framing effect, anchoring bias, availability bias, self-attribution bias, representativeness, mental accounting, hindsight bias, regret aversion, loss aversion and herding bias/media biases present in Indian investors. These biases have a negative connotation because they produce a distortion in the calculation of an outcome. These biases are classified under three categories such as cognitive errors, emotional biases and social interaction. The findings of this study may assist both financial service providers and researchers to understand the various psychological biases of individual investors in investment decision making. Additionally, individual investors will also be aware of the behavioural biases that will aid them to make sensible and efficient investment decisions.

Keywords: financial advisors, individual investors, investment decisions, psychological biases, qualitative thematic content analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Aya Al Masri, Naima Oubenali, Safoin Aktaou, Thibault Julien, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: The increased number of performed 'Computed Tomography (CT)' examinations raise public concerns regarding associated stochastic risk to patients. In its Publication 102, the ‘International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP)’ emphasized the importance of managing patient dose, particularly from repeated or multiple examinations. We developed a Dose Archiving and Communication System that gives multiple dose indexes (organ dose, effective dose, and skin-dose mapping) for patients undergoing radiological imaging exams. The aim of this study is to compare the organ dose values given by our software for patients undergoing CT exams with those of another software named "VirtualDose". Materials and methods: Our software uses Monte Carlo simulations to calculate organ doses for patients undergoing computed tomography examinations. The general calculation principle consists to simulate: (1) the scanner machine with all its technical specifications and associated irradiation cases (kVp, field collimation, mAs, pitch ...) (2) detailed geometric and compositional information of dozens of well identified organs of computational hybrid phantoms that contain the necessary anatomical data. The mass as well as the elemental composition of the tissues and organs that constitute our phantoms correspond to the recommendations of the international organizations (namely the ICRP and the ICRU). Their body dimensions correspond to reference data developed in the United States. Simulated data was verified by clinical measurement. To perform the comparison, 270 adult patients and 150 pediatric patients were used, whose data corresponds to exams carried out in France hospital centers. The comparison dataset of adult patients includes adult males and females for three different scanner machines and three different acquisition protocols (Head, Chest, and Chest-Abdomen-Pelvis). The comparison sample of pediatric patients includes the exams of thirty patients for each of the following age groups: new born, 1-2 years, 3-7 years, 8-12 years, and 13-16 years. The comparison for pediatric patients were performed on the “Head” protocol. The percentage of the dose difference were calculated for organs receiving a significant dose according to the acquisition protocol (80% of the maximal dose). Results: Adult patients: for organs that are completely covered by the scan range, the maximum percentage of dose difference between the two software is 27 %. However, there are three organs situated at the edges of the scan range that show a slightly higher dose difference. Pediatric patients: the percentage of dose difference between the two software does not exceed 30%. These dose differences may be due to the use of two different generations of hybrid phantoms by the two software. Conclusion: This study shows that our software provides a reliable dosimetric information for patients undergoing Computed Tomography exams.

Keywords: adult and pediatric patients, computed tomography, organ dose calculation, software comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Rabbia Idrees, Ananda Maiti, Saurabh Garg, Muhammad Bilal Amin

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IoT devices are the basic building blocks of IoT network that generate enormous volume of real-time and high-speed data to help organizations and companies to take intelligent decisions. To integrate this enormous data from multisource and transfer it to the appropriate client is the fundamental of IoT development. The handling of this huge quantity of devices along with the huge volume of data is very challenging. The IoT devices are battery-powered and resource-constrained and to provide energy efficient communication, these IoT devices go sleep or online/wakeup periodically and a-periodically depending on the traffic loads to reduce energy consumption. Sometime these devices get disconnected due to device battery depletion. If the node is not available in the network, then the IoT network provides incomplete, missing, and inaccurate data. Moreover, many IoT applications, like vehicle tracking and patient tracking require the IoT devices to be mobile. Due to this mobility, If the distance of the device from the sink node become greater than required, the connection is lost. Due to this disconnection other devices join the network for replacing the broken-down and left devices. This make IoT devices dynamic in nature which brings uncertainty and unreliability in the IoT network and hence produce bad quality of data. Due to this dynamic nature of IoT devices we do not know the actual reason of abnormal data. If data are of poor-quality decisions are likely to be unsound. It is highly important to process data and estimate data quality before bringing it to use in IoT applications. In the past many researchers tried to estimate data quality and provided several Machine Learning (ML), stochastic and statistical methods to perform analysis on stored data in the data processing layer, without focusing the challenges and issues arises from the dynamic nature of IoT devices and how it is impacting data quality. A comprehensive review on determining the impact of dynamic nature of IoT devices on data quality is done in this research and presented a data quality model that can deal with this challenge and produce good quality of data. This research presents the data quality model for the sensors monitoring water quality. DBSCAN clustering and weather sensors are used in this research to make data quality model for the sensors monitoring water quality. An extensive study has been done in this research on finding the relationship between the data of weather sensors and sensors monitoring water quality of the lakes and beaches. The detailed theoretical analysis has been presented in this research mentioning correlation between independent data streams of the two sets of sensors. With the help of the analysis and DBSCAN, a data quality model is prepared. This model encompasses five dimensions of data quality: outliers’ detection and removal, completeness, patterns of missing values and checks the accuracy of the data with the help of cluster’s position. At the end, the statistical analysis has been done on the clusters formed as the result of DBSCAN, and consistency is evaluated through Coefficient of Variation (CoV).

Keywords: clustering, data quality, DBSCAN, and Internet of things (IoT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Guntur Bagus Pamungkas

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As part of a tropical country that is normally rich in forest land areas, Indonesia has always been in the world's spotlight due to its significantly increasing process of deforestation. In one hand, it is related to the mainstay for maintaining the sustainability of the earth's ecosystem functions. On the other hand, they also cover the various potential sources of the global economy. Therefore, it can always be the target of different scale of investors to excessively exploit them. No wonder the emergence of disasters in various characteristics always comes up. In fact, the deforestation phenomenon does not only occur in various forest land areas in the main islands of Indonesia but also includes Java Island, the most densely populated areas in the world. This island only remains the forest land of about 9.8% of the total forest land in Indonesia due to its long history of it, especially in Central Java Province, the most densely populated area in Java. Again, not surprisingly, this province belongs to the area with the highest frequency of disasters because of it, landslides in particular. One of the areas that often experience it is Banjarnegara District, especially in mountainous areas that lies in the range from 1000 to 3000 meters above sea level, where the remains of land forest area can easyly still be found. Even among them still leaves less untouchable tropical rain forest whose area also covers part of a neighboring district, Pekalongan, which is considered to be the rest of the world's little paradise on Earth. The district's landscape is indeed beautiful, especially in the Dieng area, a major tourist destination in Central Java Province after Borobudur Temple. However, annually hazardous always threatens this district due to this landslide disaster. Even, there was a tragic event that was buried with its inhabitants a few decades ago. This research aims to find part of the concept of effective forest management through monitoring the presence of remaining forest areas in this area. The research implemented monitoring of deforestation rates using the Stochastic Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (SCA-MC) method, which serves to provide a spatial simulation of land use and cover changes (LULCC). This geospatial process uses the Landsat-8 OLI image product with Thermal Infra-Red Sensors (TIRS) Band 10 in 2020 and Landsat 5 TM with TIRS Band 6 in 2010. Then it is also integrated with physical and social geography issues using the QGIS 2.18.11 application with the Mollusce Plugin, which serves to clarify and calculate the area of land use and cover, especially in forest areas—using the LULCC method, which calculates the rate of forest area reduction in 2010-2020 in Banjarnegara District. Since the dependence of this area on the use of forest land is quite high, concepts and preventive actions are needed, such as rehabilitation and reforestation of critical lands through providing proper monitoring and targeted forest management to restore its ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: deforestation, populous area, LULCC method, proper control and effective forest management

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Merve Uzuner Sahin, Kumru D. Atalay, Berna Dengiz

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In today’s competitive market, there are many alternative products that can be used in similar manner and purpose. Therefore, the utility of the product is an important issue for the preferability of the brand. This utility could be measured in terms of its functionality, durability, reliability. These all are affected by the system capabilities. Reliability is an important system design criteria for the manufacturers to be able to have high availability. Availability is the probability that a system (or a component) is operating properly to its function at a specific point in time or a specific period of times. System availability provides valuable input to estimate the production rate for the company to realize the production plan. When considering only the corrective maintenance downtime of the system, mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are used to obtain system availability. Also, the MTBF and MTTR values are important measures to improve system performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies for reliability engineers and practitioners working in a system. Failure and repair time probability distributions of each component in the system should be known for the conventional availability analysis. However, generally, companies do not have statistics or quality control departments to store such a large amount of data. Real events or situations are defined deterministically instead of using stochastic data for the complete description of real systems. A fuzzy set is an alternative theory which is used to analyze the uncertainty and vagueness in real systems. The aim of this study is to present a novel approach to compute system availability using representation of MTBF and MTTR in fuzzy numbers. Based on the experience in the system, it is decided to choose 3 different spread of MTBF and MTTR such as 15%, 20% and 25% to obtain lower and upper limits of the fuzzy numbers. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first application that is used fuzzy MTBF and fuzzy MTTR for fuzzy system availability estimation. This method is easy to apply in any repairable production system by practitioners working in industry. It is provided that the reliability engineers/managers/practitioners could analyze the system performance in a more consistent and logical manner based on fuzzy availability. This paper presents a real case study of a repairable multi-stage production line in lead-acid battery production factory in Turkey. The following is focusing on the considered wet-charging battery process which has a higher production level than the other types of battery. In this system, system components could exist only in two states, working or failed, and it is assumed that when a component in the system fails, it becomes as good as new after repair. Instead of classical methods, using fuzzy set theory and obtaining intervals for these measures would be very useful for system managers, practitioners to analyze system qualifications to find better results for their working conditions. Thus, much more detailed information about system characteristics is obtained.

Keywords: availability analysis, battery production system, fuzzy sets, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Fabrizio Ascione, Martina Borrelli, Rosa Francesca De Masi, Silvia Ruggiero, Giuseppe Peter Vanoli

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The refurbishment of public buildings is one of the key factors of energy efficiency policy of European States. Educational buildings account for the largest share of the oldest edifice with interesting potentialities for demonstrating best practice with regards to high performance and low and zero-carbon design and for becoming exemplar cases within the community. In this context, this paper discusses the critical issue of dealing the energy refurbishment of a university building in heating dominated climate of South Italy. More in detail, the importance of using validated models will be examined exhaustively by proposing an analysis on uncertainties due to modelling assumptions mainly referring to the adoption of stochastic schedules for occupant behavior and equipment or lighting usage. Indeed, today, the great part of commercial tools provides to designers a library of possible schedules with which thermal zones can be described. Very often, the users do not pay close attention to diversify thermal zones and to modify or to adapt predefined profiles, and results of designing are affected positively or negatively without any alarm about it. Data such as occupancy schedules, internal loads and the interaction between people and windows or plant systems, represent some of the largest variables during the energy modelling and to understand calibration results. This is mainly due to the adoption of discrete standardized and conventional schedules with important consequences on the prevision of the energy consumptions. The problem is surely difficult to examine and to solve. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis is presented, to understand what is the order of magnitude of error that is committed by varying the deterministic schedules used for occupation, internal load, and lighting system. This could be a typical uncertainty for a case study as the presented one where there is not a regulation system for the HVAC system thus the occupant cannot interact with it. More in detail, starting from adopted schedules, created according to questioner’ s responses and that has allowed a good calibration of energy simulation model, several different scenarios are tested. Two type of analysis are presented: the reference building is compared with these scenarios in term of percentage difference on the projected total electric energy need and natural gas request. Then the different entries of consumption are analyzed and for more interesting cases also the comparison between calibration indexes. Moreover, for the optimal refurbishment solution, the same simulations are done. The variation on the provision of energy saving and global cost reduction is evidenced. This parametric study wants to underline the effect on performance indexes evaluation of the modelling assumptions during the description of thermal zones.

Keywords: energy simulation, modelling calibration, occupant behavior, university building

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Authors: Valentin Père, Mathieu Milhé, Fabien Baillon, Jean-Louis Dirion

Abstract:

Microgrids offer potential solutions to meet the need for local grid stability and increase isolated networks autonomy with the integration of intermittent renewable energy production and storage facilities. In such a context, sizing production and storage for a given network is a complex task, highly depending on input data such as power load profile and renewable resource availability. This work aims at developing an operating cost computation methodology for different microgrid designs based on the use of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to tackle the optimal operation problem in stochastic environments. RL is a data-based sequential decision control method based on Markov decision processes that enable the consideration of random variables for control at a chosen time scale. Agents trained via RL constitute a promising class of Energy Management Systems (EMS) for the operation of microgrids with energy storage. Microgrid sizing (or design) is generally performed by minimizing investment costs and operational costs arising from the EMS behavior. The latter might include economic aspects (power purchase, facilities aging), social aspects (load curtailment), and ecological aspects (carbon emissions). Sizing variables are related to major constraints on the optimal operation of the network by the EMS. In this work, an islanded mode microgrid is considered. Renewable generation is done with photovoltaic panels; an electrochemical battery ensures short-term electricity storage. The controllable unit is a hydrogen tank that is used as a long-term storage unit. The proposed approach focus on the transfer of agent learning for the near-optimal operating cost approximation with deep RL for each microgrid size. Like most data-based algorithms, the training step in RL leads to important computer time. The objective of this work is thus to study the potential of Batch-Constrained Q-learning (BCQ) for the optimal sizing of microgrids and especially to reduce the computation time of operating cost estimation in several microgrid configurations. BCQ is an off-line RL algorithm that is known to be data efficient and can learn better policies than on-line RL algorithms on the same buffer. The general idea is to use the learned policy of agents trained in similar environments to constitute a buffer. The latter is used to train BCQ, and thus the agent learning can be performed without update during interaction sampling. A comparison between online RL and the presented method is performed based on the score by environment and on the computation time.

Keywords: batch-constrained reinforcement learning, control, design, optimal

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Authors: Stephen L. Green, Alexander N. Gorban, Ivan Y. Tyukin

Abstract:

Within the past decade, using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN)’s to create Deep Learning systems capable of translating Sign Language into text has been a breakthrough in breaking the communication barrier for deaf-mute people. Conventional research on this subject has been concerned with training the network to recognize the fingerspelling gestures of a given language and produce their corresponding alphanumerics. One of the problems with the current developing technology is that images are scarce, with little variations in the gestures being presented to the recognition program, often skewed towards single skin tones and hand sizes that makes a percentage of the population’s fingerspelling harder to detect. Along with this, current gesture detection programs are only trained on one finger spelling language despite there being one hundred and forty-two known variants so far. All of this presents a limitation for traditional exploitation for the state of current technologies such as CNN’s, due to their large number of required parameters. This work aims to present a technology that aims to resolve this issue by combining a pretrained legacy AI system for a generic object recognition task with a corrector method to uptrain the legacy network. This is a computationally efficient procedure that does not require large volumes of data even when covering a broad range of sign languages such as American Sign Language, British Sign Language and Chinese Sign Language (Pinyin). Implementing recent results on method concentration, namely the stochastic separation theorem, an AI system is supposed as an operate mapping an input present in the set of images u ∈ U to an output that exists in a set of predicted class labels q ∈ Q of the alphanumeric that q represents and the language it comes from. These inputs and outputs, along with the interval variables z ∈ Z represent the system’s current state which implies a mapping that assigns an element x ∈ ℝⁿ to the triple (u, z, q). As all xi are i.i.d vectors drawn from a product mean distribution, over a period of time the AI generates a large set of measurements xi called S that are grouped into two categories: the correct predictions M and the incorrect predictions Y. Once the network has made its predictions, a corrector can then be applied through centering S and Y by subtracting their means. The data is then regularized by applying the Kaiser rule to the resulting eigenmatrix and then whitened before being split into pairwise, positively correlated clusters. Each of these clusters produces a unique hyperplane and if any element x falls outside the region bounded by these lines then it is reported as an error. As a result of this methodology, a self-correcting recognition process is created that can identify fingerspelling from a variety of sign language and successfully identify the corresponding alphanumeric and what language the gesture originates from which no other neural network has been able to replicate.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, shallow correctors, sign language

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Authors: Hongyan Chen, Megan Jobson, Andrew J. Masters, Maria Gonzalez-Miquel, Simon Halstead, Mayri Diaz de Rienzo

Abstract:

Ionic liquids offer excellent advantages over conventional solvents for industrial extraction of metals from aqueous solutions, where such extraction processes bring opportunities for recovery, reuse, and recycling of valuable resources and more sustainable production pathways. Recent research on the use of ionic liquids for extraction confirms their high selectivity and low volatility, but there is relatively little focus on how their properties can be best exploited in practice. This work addresses gaps in research on process modelling and simulation, to support development, design, and optimisation of these processes, focusing on the separation of the highly similar transition metals, cobalt, and nickel. The study exploits published experimental results, as well as new experimental results, relating to the separation of Co and Ni using trihexyl (tetradecyl) phosphonium chloride. This extraction agent is attractive because it is cheaper, more stable and less toxic than fluorinated hydrophobic ionic liquids. This process modelling work concerns selection and/or development of suitable models for the physical properties, distribution coefficients, for mass transfer phenomena, of the extractor unit and of the multi-stage extraction flowsheet. The distribution coefficient model for cobalt and HCl represents an anion exchange mechanism, supported by the literature and COSMO-RS calculations. Parameters of the distribution coefficient models are estimated by fitting the model to published experimental extraction equilibrium results. The mass transfer model applies Newman’s hard sphere model. Diffusion coefficients in the aqueous phase are obtained from the literature, while diffusion coefficients in the ionic liquid phase are fitted to dynamic experimental results. The mass transfer area is calculated from the surface to mean diameter of liquid droplets of the dispersed phase, estimated from the Weber number inside the extractor. New experiments measure the interfacial tension between the aqueous and ionic phases. The empirical models for predicting the density and viscosity of solutions under different metal loadings are also fitted to new experimental data. The extractor is modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor with mass transfer between the two phases and perfect phase separation of the outlet flows. A multistage separation flowsheet simulation is set up to replicate a published experiment and compare model predictions with the experimental results. This simulation model is implemented in gPROMS software for dynamic process simulation. The results of single stage and multi-stage flowsheet simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the published experimental results. The estimated diffusion coefficient of cobalt in the ionic liquid phase is in reasonable agreement with published data for the diffusion coefficients of various metals in this ionic liquid. A sensitivity study with this simulation model demonstrates the usefulness of the models for process design. The simulation approach has potential to be extended to account for other metals, acids, and solvents for process development, design, and optimisation of extraction processes applying ionic liquids for metals separations, although a lack of experimental data is currently limiting the accuracy of models within the whole framework. Future work will focus on process development more generally and on extractive separation of rare earths using ionic liquids.

Keywords: distribution coefficient, mass transfer, COSMO-RS, flowsheet simulation, phosphonium

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