Search results for: stochastic partial differential equation

Authors: Pranjal Srivastava, Piyali Sengupta

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The performance of marine drilling risers is crucial in the offshore oil and gas industry to ensure safe drilling operation with minimum downtime. Experimental investigations on marine drilling risers are limited in the literature owing to the expensive and exhaustive test setup required to replicate the realistic riser model and ocean environment in the laboratory. Therefore, this study presents an analytical model of marine drilling riser for determining its fragility under ocean environmental loading. In this study, the marine drilling riser is idealized as a continuous beam having a concentric circular cross-section. Hydrodynamic loading acting on the marine drilling riser is determined by Morison’s equations. By considering the equilibrium of forces on the marine drilling riser for the connected and normal drilling conditions, the governing partial differential equations in terms of independent variables z (depth) and t (time) are derived. Subsequently, the Runge Kutta method and Finite Difference Method are employed for solving the partial differential equations arising from the analytical model. The proposed analytical approach is successfully validated with respect to the experimental results from the literature. From the dynamic analysis results of the proposed analytical approach, the critical design parameters peak displacements, upper and lower flex joint rotations and von Mises stresses of marine drilling risers are determined. An extensive parametric study is conducted to explore the effects of top tension, drilling depth, ocean current speed and platform drift on the critical design parameters of the marine drilling riser. Thereafter, incremental dynamic analysis is performed to derive the fragility functions of shallow water and deep-water marine drilling risers under ocean environmental loading. The proposed methodology can also be adopted for downtime estimation of marine drilling risers incorporating the ranges of uncertainties associated with the ocean environment, especially at deep and ultra-deepwater.

Keywords: drilling riser, marine, analytical model, fragility

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Ilija Plecas, Dalibor Arbutina

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The leaching rate of 60Co from spent mix bead (anion and cation) exchange resins in a cement-bentonite matrix has been studied. Transport phenomena involved in the leaching of a radioactive material from a cement-bentonite matrix are investigated using three methods based on theoretical equations. These are: the diffusion equation for a plane source, an equation for diffusion coupled to a first order equation and an empirical method employing a polynomial equation. The results presented in this paper are from a 25-year mortar and concrete testing project that will influence the design choices for radioactive waste packaging for a future Serbian radioactive waste disposal center.

Keywords: cement, concrete, immobilization, leaching, permeability, radioactivity, waste

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Authors: Salah Alrabeei, Mohammad Yousuf

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The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial future by theoretically valuing their options. Modeling option pricing by Black-School models with jumps guarantees to consider the market movement. However, only numerical methods can solve this model. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this paper, the exponential time differencing (ETD) method is applied for solving partial integrodifferential equations arising in pricing European options under Merton’s and Kou’s jump-diffusion models. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM). A partial fraction form of Pad`e schemes is used to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices. These two tools guarantee to get efficient and accurate numerical solutions. We construct a parallel and easy to implement a version of the numerical scheme. Numerical experiments are given to show how fast and accurate is our scheme.

Keywords: Integral differential equations, , L-stable methods, pricing European options, Jump–diffusion model

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Authors: Bum-Soo Kim, Jin-Uk Kim

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In this paper, we design and implement a partial denoising boundary image matching system using indexing techniques. Converting boundary images to time-series makes it feasible to perform fast search using indexes even on a very large image database. Thus, using this converting method we develop a client-server system based on the previous partial denoising research in the GUI (graphical user interface) environment. The client first converts a query image given by a user to a time-series and sends denoising parameters and the tolerance with this time-series to the server. The server identifies similar images from the index by evaluating a range query, which is constructed using inputs given from the client, and sends the resulting images to the client. Experimental results show that our system provides much intuitive and accurate matching result.

Keywords: boundary image matching, indexing, partial denoising, time-series matching

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Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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Authors: H. Niranjan, S. Sivasankaran

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Heat and mass transfer near a steady stagnation point boundary layer flow of viscous incompressible fluid through porous media investigates along a vertical plate is thoroughly studied under the presence of magneto hydrodynamic (MHD) effects. The fluid flow is steady, laminar, incompressible and in two-dimensional. The nonlinear differential coupled parabolic partial differential equations of continuity, momentum, energy and specie diffusion are converted into the non-similar boundary layer equations using similarity transformation, which are then solved numerically using the Runge-Kutta method along with shooting method. The effects of the conjugate heat transfer parameter, the porous medium parameter, the permeability parameter, the mixed convection parameter, the magnetic parameter, and the thermal radiation on the velocity and temperature profiles as well as on the local skin friction and local heat transfer are presented and analyzed. The validity of the methodology and analysis is checked by comparing the results obtained for some specific cases with those available in the literature. The various parameters on local skin friction, heat and mass transfer rates are presented in tabular form.

Keywords: MHD, porous medium, slip, convective boundary condition, stagnation point

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Authors: Aziz Sezgin

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We consider the problem of stabilization of an unstable heat equation in a 2-D, 3-D and generally n-D domain by deriving a generalized backstepping boundary control design methodology. To stabilize the systems, we design boundary backstepping controllers inspired by the 1-D unstable heat equation stabilization procedure. We assume that one side of the boundary is hinged and the other side is controlled for each direction of the domain. Thus, controllers act on two boundaries for 2-D domain, three boundaries for 3-D domain and ”n” boundaries for n-D domain. The main idea of the design is to derive ”n” controllers for each of the dimensions by using ”n” kernel functions. Thus, we obtain ”n” controllers for the ”n” dimensional case. We use a transformation to change the system into an exponentially stable ”n” dimensional heat equation. The transformation used in this paper is a generalized Volterra/Fredholm type with ”n” kernel functions for n-D domain instead of the one kernel function of 1-D design.

Keywords: backstepping, boundary control, 2-D, 3-D, n-D heat equation, distributed parameter systems

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Authors: Vinayak Bassi, Rajpreet Singh

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Over the years, with the emergence of sophisticated computers and algorithms, finance has been quantified using computational prowess. Asset valuation has been one of the key components of quantitative finance. In fact, it has become one of the embryonic steps in determining risk related to a portfolio, the main goal of quantitative finance. This study comprises a drawing comparison between valuation output generated by two stochastic dynamic models, namely Black-Scholes and Dupire’s bi-dimensionality model. Both of these models are formulated for computing the valuation function for a portfolio of European options using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although Monte Carlo algorithms have a slower convergence rate than calculus-based simulation techniques (like FDM), they work quite effectively over high-dimensional dynamic models. A fidelity gap is analyzed between the static (historical) and stochastic inputs for a sample portfolio of underlying assets. In order to enhance the performance efficiency of the model, the study emphasized the use of variable reduction methods and customizing random number generators to implement parallelization. An attempt has been made to further implement the Dupire’s model on a GPU to achieve higher computational performance. Furthermore, ideas have been discussed around the performance enhancement and bottleneck identification related to the implementation of options-pricing models on GPUs.

Keywords: monte carlo, stochastic models, computational finance, parallel programming, scientific computing

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Authors: Mahmood Otadi, Maryam Mosleh

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The hybrid differential equations have a wide range of applications in science and engineering. In this paper, the homotopy analysis method (HAM) is applied to obtain the series solution of the hybrid differential equations. Using the homotopy analysis method, it is possible to find the exact solution or an approximate solution of the problem. Comparisons are made between improved predictor-corrector method, homotopy analysis method and the exact solution. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical example.

Keywords: fuzzy number, fuzzy ODE, HAM, approximate method

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Authors: Mohammadreza Akbari, Pooya Soleimani Besheli, Reza Khalili, Sara Akbari

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In this study, we investigate building structures nonlinear behavior also solving analytic of nonlinear differential at vibrations. As we know most of engineering systems behavior in practical are non- linear process (especial at structural) and analytical solving (no numerical) these problems are complex, difficult and sometimes impossible (of course at form of analytical solving). In this symposium, we are going to exposure one method in engineering, that can solve sets of nonlinear differential equations with high accuracy and simple solution and so this issue will emerge after comparing the achieved solutions by Numerical Method (Runge-Kutte 4th) and exact solutions. Finally, we can proof AGM method could be created huge evolution for researcher and student (engineering and basic science) in whole over the world, because of AGM coding system, so by using this software, we can analytical solve all complicated linear and nonlinear differential equations, with help of that there is no difficulty for solving nonlinear differential equations.

Keywords: new method AGM, vibrations, beam-column, angular frequency, energy dissipated, critical load

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Authors: Ardalan Sabamehr, Ashutosh Bagchi

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Recently, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) based on the vibration of structures has attracted the attention of researchers in different fields such as: civil, aeronautical and mechanical engineering. Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) have been developed to identify modal properties of infrastructure such as bridge, building and so on. Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD), Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) are the three most common methods in output only modal identification. FDD, SSI, and CWT operate based on the frequency domain, time domain, and time-frequency plane respectively. So, FDD and SSI are not able to display time and frequency at the same time. By the way, FDD and SSI have some difficulties in a noisy environment and finding the closed modes. CWT technique which is currently developed works on time-frequency plane and a reasonable performance in such condition. The other advantage of wavelet transform rather than other current techniques is that it can be applied for the non-stationary signal as well. The aim of this paper is to compare three most common modal identification techniques to find modal properties (such as natural frequency, mode shape, and damping ratio) of three story steel frame which was built in Concordia University Lab by use of ambient vibration. The frame has made of Galvanized steel with 60 cm length, 27 cm width and 133 cm height with no brace along the long span and short space. Three uniaxial wired accelerations (MicroStarin with 100mv/g accuracy) have been attached to the middle of each floor and gateway receives the data and send to the PC by use of Node Commander Software. The real-time monitoring has been performed for 20 seconds with 512 Hz sampling rate. The test is repeated for 5 times in each direction by hand shaking and impact hammer. CWT is able to detect instantaneous frequency by used of ridge detection method. In this paper, partial derivative ridge detection technique has been applied to the local maxima of time-frequency plane to detect the instantaneous frequency. The extracted result from all three methods have been compared, and it demonstrated that CWT has the better performance in term of its accuracy in noisy environment. The modal parameters such as natural frequency, damping ratio and mode shapes are identified from all three methods.

Keywords: ambient vibration, frequency domain decomposition, stochastic subspace identification, continuous wavelet transform

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Authors: A. M. Sagir

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the developed linear multistep block method for solving first order initial value problem of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). The method calculates the numerical solution at three points simultaneously and produces three new equally spaced solution values within a block. The continuous formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some selected points to obtain three discrete schemes, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. A stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on ordinary differential equations involving practical applications, and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution. Furthermore, comparison of error analysis has been developed with the help of computer software.

Keywords: block method, first order ordinary differential equations, linear multistep, self-starting

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Authors: Nikolaos Mamalis

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The work of the eminent architect and composer has undoubtedly been influenced both by his architecture and collaboration with Le Corbusier and by the conquests of the musical avant-garde of the 20th century (Schoenberg, Messian, Bartock, electroacoustic music). It is known that the golden mean and the Fibonacci sequence played a momentous role in the Architectural Avant-garde (Modulor) and expanded on musical pursuits. Especially in the 50s (serialism), it was a structural tool for composition. Xenakis' architectural and musical work (Sacrifice, Metastasis, Rebonds, etc.) received the influence of the Golden Section, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. However, the idea of this retrospective sequence and the reflection raised by the search for new proportions, both in the architectural and the musical work of Xenakis, was not limited to constituting a step, a workable formula that acted unifyingly with regard to the other parameters of the musical work, or as an aesthetic model that makes sense - philosophically and poetically - an anthropocentric dimension as in other composers (see Luigi Nono) ̇ triggered a qualitative leap, an opening of the composer to the assimilation of mathematical concepts and scientific types in music and the consolidation of new sound horizons of stochastic music.

Keywords: golden ratio, music, space, stochastic music

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Authors: Chaluntorn Vichasilp, Sutee Wangtueai

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This study aims to develop a new method to detect active compounds in Thai herbs (1-deoxynojirimycin (DNJ) in mulberry leave, anthocyanin in Mao and curcumin in turmeric) using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRs). NIRs is non-destructive technique that rapid, non-chemical involved and low-cost determination. By NIRs and chemometrics technique, it was found that the DNJ prediction equation conducted with partial least square regression with cross-validation had low accuracy R2 (0.42) and SEP (31.87 mg/100g). On the other hand, the anthocyanin prediction equation showed moderate good results (R2 and SEP of 0.78 and 0.51 mg/g) with Multiplication scattering correction at wavelength of 2000-2200 nm. The high absorption could be observed at wavelength of 2047 nm and this model could be used as screening level. For curcumin prediction, the good result was obtained when applied original spectra with smoothing technique. The wavelength of 1400-2500 nm was created regression model with R2 (0.68) and SEP (0.17 mg/g). This model had high NIRs absorption at a wavelength of 1476, 1665, 1986 and 2395 nm, respectively. NIRs showed prospective technique for detection of some active compounds in Thai herbs.

Keywords: anthocyanin, curcumin, 1-deoxynojirimycin (DNJ), near infrared spectroscopy (NIRs)

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Authors: K. Jafar, R. Nazar, A. Ishak, I. Pop

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The present analysis considers the steady stagnation point flow and heat transfer towards a permeable sheet in an upper-convected Maxwell (UCM) electrically conducting fluid, with a constant magnetic field applied in the transverse direction to flow, and a local heat generation within the boundary layer with a heat generation rate proportional to (T-T_inf)^p. Using a similarity transformation, the governing system of partial differential equations is first transformed into a system of ordinary differential equations, which is then solved numerically using a finite-difference scheme known as the Keller-box method. Numerical results are obtained for the flow and thermal fields for various values of the shrinking/stretching parameter lambda, the magnetic parameter M, the elastic parameter K, the Prandtl number Pr, the suction parameter s, the heat generation parameter Q, and the exponent p. The results indicate the existence of dual solutions for the shrinking sheet up to a critical value lambda_c whose value depends on the value of M, K, and s. In the presence of internal heat absorbtion (Q<0), the surface heat transfer rate decreases with increasing p but increases with parameter Q and s, when the sheet is either stretched or shrunk.

Keywords: magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), boundary layer flow, UCM fluid, stagnation point, shrinking sheet

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Authors: Azad Hussain, Shoaib Ali, M. Y. Malik, Saba Nazir, Sarmad Jamal

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This article reports a fundamental numerical investigation to analyze the impact of thermal radiations on MHD flow of differential type nanofluid past a porous plate. Here, viscosity is taken as function of temperature. Energy equation is deliberated in the existence of viscous dissipation. The mathematical terminologies of nano concentration, velocity and temperature are first cast into dimensionless expressions via suitable conversions and then solved by using Shooting technique to obtain the numerical solutions. Graphs has been plotted to check the convergence of constructed solutions. At the end, the influence of effective parameters on nanoparticle concentration, velocity and temperature fields are also deliberated in a comprehensive way. Moreover, the physical measures of engineering importance such as the Sherwood number, Skin friction and Nusselt number are also calculated. It is perceived that the thermal radiation enhances the temperature for both Vogel's and Reynolds' models but the normal stress parameter causes a reduction in temperature profile.

Keywords: MHD flow, differential type nanofluid, Porous medium, variable viscosity, thermal radiation

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Authors: Weiying Wang, Qi Li, Huiwen Deng, Weirong Chen

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The abrupt light change and uneven illumination will make the PV system get rid of constant output power, which will affect the efficiency of the grid connected inverter as well as the stability of the system. To solve this problem, this paper presents a strategy to control the stability of photovoltaic power system under the condition of partial shading of PV array, leading to constant power output, improving the capacity of resisting interferences. Firstly, a photovoltaic cell model considering the partial shading is established, and the backtracking search algorithm is used as the maximum power point to track algorithm under complex illumination. Then, the energy storage system based on the constant power control strategy is used to achieve constant power output. Finally, the effectiveness and correctness of the proposed control method are verified by the joint simulation of MATLAB/Simulink and RTLAB simulation platform.

Keywords: backtracking search algorithm, constant power control, hybrid system, partial shading, stability

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Fahrudin Nugroho, Halim Hamadi, Yusril Yusuf, Pekik Nurwantoro, Ari Setiawan, Yoshiki Hidaka

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We investigate the Nikolaevskiy equation numerically using exponential time differencing method and pseudo-spectral method. This equation develops a long-wavelength modulation that behaves as a Nambu–Goldstone mode, and short-wavelength instability and exhibit turbulence. Using the autocorrelation analysis, the statistical properties of the turbulence governed by the equation are investigated. The autocorrelation then has been fitted with The Kohlrausch– Williams–Watts (KWW) expression. By varying the control parameter, we show a transition from compressed to stretched exponential for the auto-correlation function of Nikolaevskiy turbulence. The compressed exponential is an indicator of the existence of dynamical heterogeneity while the stretched indicates aging process. Thereby, we revealed the existence of dynamical heterogeneity and aging in the turbulence governed by Nikolaevskiy equation.

Keywords: compressed exponential, dynamical heterogeneity, Nikolaevskiy equation, stretched exponential, turbulence

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

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Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint

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Authors: Ntaganda J.M., Maniraguha J.D., Mukeshimana S., Harelimana D, Bizimungu T., Ruataganda E.

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This paper presents the design of Graphic User Interface (GUI) in Matlab as interaction tool between human and machine. The designed GUI can be used by medical doctors and other experts particularly the physiologists. Matlab packages and estimated parameters of the mathematical model of cardiovascular-respiratory system developed in Rwandan context are used in GUI. The ordinary differential equations (ODE’s) govern a mathematical model in designing GUI in Matlab and a window that sets model estimated parameters and the measured parameters by any user. For healthy subject, these measured parameters include heart rate, systolic blood and diastolic blood pressure, partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood, partial pressure of carbon dioxide in arterial blood, concentration of bound and dissolved oxygen in the mixed venous blood entering the lungs, and concentration of bound and dissolved carbon dioxide in the mixed venous blood entering the lungs. The results of numerical test give a consistent appearance as empirically known results.

Keywords: Graphic User Interface, mathematical model, cardiovascur-respiratory system, walking physical activity, blood pressure, oxygen

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Authors: Norhashidah Hj Mohd Ali, Teng Wai Ping

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In this paper, the formulation of a new group explicit method with a fourth order accuracy is described in solving the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. The formulation is based on the nine-point fourth-order compact finite difference approximation formula. The complexity analysis of the developed scheme is also presented. Several numerical experiments were conducted to test the feasibility of the developed scheme. Comparisons with other existing schemes will be reported and discussed. Preliminary results indicate that this method is a viable alternative high accuracy solver to the Helmholtz equation.

Keywords: explicit group method, finite difference, Helmholtz equation, five-point formula, nine-point formula

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Authors: Alakija Temitope Olufunmilayo, Akinyemi, Yagba Joy

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Hepatitis is the inflammation of the liver tissue that can cause whiteness of the eyes (Jaundice), lack of appetite, vomiting, tiredness, abdominal pain, diarrhea. Hepatitis is acute if it resolves within 6 months and chronic if it last longer than 6 months. Acute hepatitis can resolve on its own, lead to chronic hepatitis or rarely result in acute liver failure. Chronic hepatitis may lead to scarring of the liver (Cirrhosis), liver failure and liver cancer. Modelling Hepatitis B may become necessary in order to reduce its spread. So, dynamic SIR model can be used. This model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equation which does not have an explicit formula solution. It is an epidemiological model used to predict the dynamics of infectious disease by categorizing the population into three possible compartments. In this study, a five-compartment dynamic model of Hepatitis B disease was proposed and developed by adding control measure of sensitizing the public called awareness. All the mathematical and statistical formulation of the model, especially the general equilibrium of the model, was derived, including the nonlinear least square estimators. The initial parameters of the model were derived using nonlinear least square embedded in R code. The result study shows that the proportion of Hepatitis B patient in the study population is 1.4 per 1,000,000 populations. The estimated Hepatitis B induced death rate is 0.0108, meaning that 1.08% of the infected individuals die of the disease. The reproduction number of Hepatitis B diseases in Nigeria is 6.0, meaning that one individual can infect more than 6.0 people. The effect of sensitizing the public on the basic reproduction number is significant as the reproduction number is reduced. The study therefore recommends that programme should be designed by government and non-governmental organization to sensitize the entire Nigeria population in order to reduce cases of Hepatitis B disease among the citizens.

Keywords: hepatitis B, modelling, non-linear ordinary differential equation, sihar model, sensitization

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Authors: Aria Ratmandanu

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Boson stars can be viewed as zero temperature ground state, Bose-Einstein condensates, characterized by enormous occupation numbers. Time-dependent spherically symmetric spacetime can be a model of Boson Star. We use (3+1) split of Einstein equation (ADM formulation of general relativity) to solve Einstein field equation coupled to a complex scalar field (Einstein-Klein-Gordon Equation) on time-dependent spherically symmetric spacetime, We get the result that Boson stars are pulsating stars with the frequency of oscillation equal to its density. We search for interior solution of Boson stars and get the T.O.V. (Tollman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff) equation for Boson stars. Using T.O.V. equation, we get the equation of state and the relation between pressure and density, its total mass and along with its gravitational Mass. We found that the hypothetical particle Axion could form a Boson star with the size of a milky way galaxy and make it a candidate for a dark galaxy, (a galaxy that consists almost entirely of dark matter).

Keywords: axion, boson star, dark galaxy, time-dependent spherically symmetric spacetime

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Authors: Kitjapat Phuvoravan, Phattaraphong Ponsorn

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In the design of Castellated beams (CB), the web post buckling acted by horizontal shear force is one of the important failure modes that have to be considered. It is also a dominant governing mode when design following the AISC 31 design guideline which is just published. However, the equation of the web post buckling given by the guideline is still questionable for most of the engineers. So the purpose of this paper is to study and provide a proposed equation for design the web post buckling with more simplified and convenient to use. The study is also including the improper of the safety factor given by the guideline. The proposed design equation is acquired by regression method based on the results of finite element analysis. An amount of Cellular beam simulated to study is modelled by using shell element, analysis with both geometric and material nonlinearity. The results of the study show that the use of the proposed equation to design the web post buckling in Castellated beams is more simple and precise for computation than the equations provided from the guideline.

Keywords: castellated beam, web opening, web post buckling, design equation

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

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The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

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Authors: Pawan Kumar Sharma, Sudhakar Dwivedi, R. K. Arora

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Saffron is one of the most precious spices grown on the earth and is cultivated in a very limited area in few countries of the world. It has also been grown as a niche crop in Kishtwar district of Jammu region of Jammu and Kashmir State of India. This paper attempts to examine the presence of cost inefficiencies in saffron production and the associated socio-economic characteristics of saffron growers in the mentioned area. Although the numbers of inputs used in cultivation of saffron were limited, still cost inefficiencies were present in its production. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and profitability index (PI) of investment in five years of saffron production were INR 1120803, 95.67 % and 3.52 respectively. The estimated coefficients of saffron stochastic cost function for saffron bulbs, human labour, animal labour, manure and saffron output were positive. The saffron growers having non-farm income were more cost inefficient as compared to farmers who did not have sources of income other than farming by 0.04 %. The maximum value of cost efficiency for saffron grower was 1.69 with mean value of 1.12. The majority of farmers have low cost inefficiencies, as the highest frequency of occurrence of the predicted cost efficiency was below 1.06.

Keywords: saffron, internal rate of return, cost efficiency, stochastic frontier model

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Authors: Reza Zakerinejad

Abstract:

Gully erosion is a serious problem that threading the sustainability of agricultural area and rangeland and water in a large part of Iran. This type of water erosion is the main source of sedimentation in many catchment areas in the north of Iran. Since in many national assessment approaches just qualitative models were applied the aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion processes by means of detail terrain analysis and GIS -based logistic regression in the loess deposition in a case study in the Golestan Province. This study the DEM with 25 meter result ion from ASTER data has been used. The Landsat ETM data have been used to mapping of land use. The TreeNet model as a stochastic modeling was applied to prediction the susceptible area for gully erosion. In this model ROC we have set 20 % of data as learning and 20 % as learning data. Therefore, applying the GIS and satellite image analysis techniques has been used to derive the input information for these stochastic models. The result of this study showed a high accurate map of potential for gully erosion.

Keywords: TreeNet model, terrain analysis, Golestan Province, Iran

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Authors: Jihad Daba, Jean-Pierre Dubois

Abstract:

Multi path fading noise degrades the performance of cellular communication, most notably in femto- and pico-cells in 3G and 4G systems. When the wireless channel consists of a small number of scattering paths, the statistics of fading noise is not analytically tractable and poses a serious challenge to developing closed canonical forms that can be analysed and used in the design of efficient and optimal receivers. In this context, noise is multiplicative and is referred to as stochastically local fading. In many analytical investigation of multiplicative noise, the exponential or Gamma statistics are invoked. More recent advances by the author of this paper have utilized a Poisson modulated and weighted generalized Laguerre polynomials with controlling parameters and uncorrelated noise assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the statistics of multi-diversity stochastically local area fading channel when the channel consists of randomly distributed Rayleigh and Rician scattering centers with a coherent specular Nakagami-distributed line of sight component and an underlying doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a lognormal intensity. These combined statistics form a unifying triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process model.

Keywords: cellular communication, femto and pico-cells, stochastically local area fading channel, triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process

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