Search results for: service failure
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5710

Search results for: service failure

970 Reallocation of Bed Capacity in a Hospital Combining Discrete Event Simulation and Integer Linear Programming

Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

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The number of inpatient admissions in the UK has been significantly increasing over the past decade. These increases cause bed occupancy rates to exceed the target level (85%) set by the Department of Health in England. Therefore, hospital service managers are struggling to better manage key resource such as beds. On the other hand, this severe demand pressure might lead to confusion in wards. For example, patients can be admitted to the ward of another inpatient specialty due to lack of resources (i.e., bed). This study aims to develop a simulation-optimization model to reallocate the available number of beds in a mid-sized hospital in the UK. A hospital simulation model was developed to capture the stochastic behaviours of the hospital by taking into account the accident and emergency department, all outpatient and inpatient services, and the interactions between each other. A couple of outputs of the simulation model (e.g., average length of stay and revenue) were generated as inputs to be used in the optimization model. An integer linear programming was developed under a number of constraints (financial, demand, target level of bed occupancy rate and staffing level) with the aims of maximizing number of admitted patients. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by taking into account unexpected increases on inpatient demand over the next 12 months. As a result, the major findings of the approach proposed in this study optimally reallocate the available number of beds for each inpatient speciality and reveal that 74 beds are idle. In addition, the findings of the study indicate that the hospital wards will be able to cope with 14% demand increase at most in the projected year. In conclusion, this paper sheds a new light on how best to reallocate beds in order to cope with current and future demand for healthcare services.

Keywords: bed occupancy rate, bed reallocation, discrete event simulation, inpatient admissions, integer linear programming, projected usage

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969 HCl-Based Hydrometallurgical Recycling Route for Metal Recovery from Li-Ion Battery Wastes

Authors: Claudia Schier, Arvid Biallas, Bernd Friedrich

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The demand for Li-ion-batteries owing to their benefits, such as; fast charging time, high energy density, low weight, large temperature range, and a long service life performance is increasing compared to other battery systems. These characteristics are substantial not only for battery-operated portable devices but also in the growing field of electromobility where high-performance energy storage systems in the form of batteries are highly requested. Due to the sharp rising production, there is a tremendous interest to recycle spent Li-Ion batteries in a closed-loop manner owed to the high content of valuable metals such as cobalt, manganese, and lithium as well as regarding the increasing demand for those scarce applied metals. Currently, there are just a few industrial processes using hydrometallurgical methods to recover valuable metals from Li-ion-battery waste. In this study, the extraction of valuable metals from spent Li-ion-batteries is investigated by pretreated and subsequently leached battery wastes using different precipitation methods in a comparative manner. For the extraction of lithium, cobalt, and other valuable metals, pelletized battery wastes with an initial Li content of 2.24 wt. % and cobalt of 22 wt. % is used. Hydrochloric acid with 4 mol/L is applied with 1:50 solid to liquid (s/l) ratio to generate pregnant leach solution for subsequent precipitation steps. In order to obtain pure precipitates, two different pathways (pathway 1 and pathway 2) are investigated, which differ from each other with regard to the precipitation steps carried out. While lithium carbonate recovery is the final process step in pathway 1, pathway 2 requires a preliminary removal of lithium from the process. The aim is to evaluate both processes in terms of purity and yield of the products obtained. ICP-OES is used to determine the chemical content of leach liquor as well as of the solid residue.

Keywords: hydrochloric acid, hydrometallurgy, Li-ion-batteries, metal recovery

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968 The Evolution of the Israel Defence Forces’ Information Operations: A Case Study of the Israel Defence Forces' Activities in the Information Domain 2006–2014

Authors: Teemu Saressalo

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This article examines the evolution of the Israel Defence Forces’ information operation activities during an eight-year timespan from the 2006 war with Hezbollah to more recent operations such as Pillar of Defence and Protective Edge. To this end, the case study will show a change in the Israel Defence Forces’ activities in the information domain. In the 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel inflicted enormous damage on the Lebanese infrastructure, leaving more than 1,200 people dead and 4,400 injured. Casualties among Hezbollah, Israel’s main adversary, were estimated to range from 250 to 700 fighters. Damage to the Lebanese infrastructure was estimated at over USD 2.5bn, with almost 2,000 houses and buildings damaged and destroyed. Even this amount of destruction did not force Hezbollah to yield and while both sides were claiming victory in the war, Israel paid a heavier price in political backlashes and loss of reputation, mainly due to failures in the media and the way in which the war was portrayed and perceived in Israel and abroad. Much of this can be credited to Hezbollah’s efficient use of the media, and Israel’s failure to do so. Israel managed the next conflict it was engaged in completely differently – it had learnt its lessons and built up new ways to counter its adversary’s propaganda and media operations. In Operation Cast Lead at the turn of 2009, Hamas, Israel’s adversary and Gaza’s dominating faction, was not able to utilize the media in the same way that Hezbollah had. By creating a virtual and physical barrier around the Gaza Strip, Israel almost totally denied its adversary access to the worldwide media, and by restricting the movement of journalists in the area, Israel could let its voice be heard above all. The operation Cast Lead began with a deception operation, which caught Hamas totally off guard. The 21-day campaign left the Gaza Strip devastated, but did not cause as much protest in Israel during the operation as the 2006 war did, mainly due to almost total Israeli dominance in the information dimension. The most important outcome from the Israeli perspective was the fact that Operation Cast Lead was assessed to be a success and the operation enjoyed domestic support along with support from many western nations, which had condemned Israeli actions in the 2006 war. Later conflicts have shown the same tendency towards virtually total dominance in the information domain, which has had an impact on target audiences across the world. Thus, it is clear that well-planned and conducted information operations are able to shape public opinion and influence decision-makers, although Israel might have been outpaced by its rivals.

Keywords: Hamas, Hezbollah, information operations, Israel Defence Forces

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967 Speech Emotion Recognition: A DNN and LSTM Comparison in Single and Multiple Feature Application

Authors: Thiago Spilborghs Bueno Meyer, Plinio Thomaz Aquino Junior

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Through speech, which privileges the functional and interactive nature of the text, it is possible to ascertain the spatiotemporal circumstances, the conditions of production and reception of the discourse, the explicit purposes such as informing, explaining, convincing, etc. These conditions allow bringing the interaction between humans closer to the human-robot interaction, making it natural and sensitive to information. However, it is not enough to understand what is said; it is necessary to recognize emotions for the desired interaction. The validity of the use of neural networks for feature selection and emotion recognition was verified. For this purpose, it is proposed the use of neural networks and comparison of models, such as recurrent neural networks and deep neural networks, in order to carry out the classification of emotions through speech signals to verify the quality of recognition. It is expected to enable the implementation of robots in a domestic environment, such as the HERA robot from the RoboFEI@Home team, which focuses on autonomous service robots for the domestic environment. Tests were performed using only the Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, as well as tests with several characteristics of Delta-MFCC, spectral contrast, and the Mel spectrogram. To carry out the training, validation and testing of the neural networks, the eNTERFACE’05 database was used, which has 42 speakers from 14 different nationalities speaking the English language. The data from the chosen database are videos that, for use in neural networks, were converted into audios. It was found as a result, a classification of 51,969% of correct answers when using the deep neural network, when the use of the recurrent neural network was verified, with the classification with accuracy equal to 44.09%. The results are more accurate when only the Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients are used for the classification, using the classifier with the deep neural network, and in only one case, it is possible to observe a greater accuracy by the recurrent neural network, which occurs in the use of various features and setting 73 for batch size and 100 training epochs.

Keywords: emotion recognition, speech, deep learning, human-robot interaction, neural networks

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966 Financial Performance Model of Local Economic Enterprises in Matalam, Cotabato

Authors: Kristel Faye Tandog

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The State Owned Enterprise (SOE) or also called Public Enterprise (PE) has been playing a vital role in a country’s social and economic development. Following this idea, this study focused on the Factor Structures of Financial Performance of the Local Economic Enterprises (LEEs) namely: Food Court, Market, Slaughterhouse, and Terminal in Matalam, Cotabato. It aimed to determine the profile of the LEEs in terms of organizational structure, manner of creation, years in operation, source of initial operating requirements, annual operating budget, geographical location, and size or description of the facility. This study also included the different financial ratios of LEE that covered a five year period from Calendar Year 2009 to 2013. Primary data using survey questionnaire was administered to 468 respondents and secondary data were sourced out from the government archives and financial documents of the said LGU. There were 12 dominant factors identified namely: “management”, “enforcement of laws”, “strategic location”, “existence of non-formal competitors”, “proper maintenance”, “pricing”, “customer service”, “collection process”, “rentals and services”, “efficient use of resources”, “staffing”, and “timeliness and accuracy”. On the other hand, the financial performance of the LEE of Matalam, Cotabato using financial ratios needs reformatting. This denotes that refinement as to the following ratios: Cash Flow Indicator, Activity, Profitability and Growth is necessary. The cash flow indicator ratio showed difficulty in covering its debts in successive years. Likewise, the activity ratios showed that the LEE had not been effective in putting its investment at work. Moreover, profitability ratios revealed that it had operated in minimum capacity and had incurred net losses and thus, it had a weak profit performance. Furthermore, growth ratios showed that LEE had a declining growth trend particularly in net income.

Keywords: factor structures, financial performance, financial ratios, state owned enterprises

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965 Determination of Stress-Strain Curve of Duplex Stainless Steel Welds

Authors: Carolina Payares-Asprino

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Dual-phase duplex stainless steel comprised of ferrite and austenite has shown high strength and corrosion resistance in many aggressive environments. Joining duplex alloys is challenging due to several embrittling precipitates and metallurgical changes during the welding process. The welding parameters strongly influence the quality of a weld joint. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the weld bead’s integral properties as a function of welding parameters, especially when part of the weld bead is removed through a machining process due to aesthetic reasons or to couple the elements in the in-service structure. The present study uses the existing stress-strain model to predict the stress-strain curves for duplex stainless-steel welds under different welding conditions. Having mathematical expressions that predict the shape of the stress-strain curve is advantageous since it reduces the experimental work in obtaining the tensile test. In analysis and design, such stress-strain modeling simplifies the time of operations by being integrated into calculation tools, such as the finite element program codes. The elastic zone and the plastic zone of the curve can be defined by specific parameters, generating expressions that simulate the curve with great precision. There are empirical equations that describe the stress-strain curves. However, they only refer to the stress-strain curve for the stainless steel, but not when the material is under the welding process. It is a significant contribution to the applications of duplex stainless steel welds. For this study, a 3x3 matrix with a low, medium, and high level for each of the welding parameters were applied, giving a total of 27 weld bead plates. Two tensile specimens were manufactured from each welded plate, resulting in 54 tensile specimens for testing. When evaluating the four models used to predict the stress-strain curve in the welded specimens, only one model (Rasmussen) presented a good correlation in predicting the strain stress curve.

Keywords: duplex stainless steels, modeling, stress-stress curve, tensile test, welding

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964 Botswana and Nation-Building Theory

Authors: Rowland Brucken

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This paper argues that nation-building theories that prioritize democratic governance best explain the successful post-independence development of Botswana. Three main competing schools of thought exist regarding the sequencing of policies that should occur to re-build weakened or failed states. The first posits that economic development should receive foremost attention, while democratization and a binding sense of nationalism can wait. A second group of experts identified constructing a sense of nationalism among a populace is necessary first, so that the state receives popular legitimacy and obedience that are prerequisites for development. Botswana, though, transitioned into a multi-party democracy and prosperous open economy due to the utilization of traditional democratic structures, enlightened and accountable leadership, and an educated technocratic civil service. With these political foundations already in place when the discovery of diamonds occurred, the resulting revenues were spent wisely on projects that grew the economy, improved basic living standards, and attracted foreign investment. Thus democratization preceded, and therefore provided an accountable basis for, economic development that might otherwise have been squandered by greedy and isolated elites to the detriment of the greater population. Botswana was one of the poorest nations in the world at the time of its independence in 1966, with little infrastructure, a dependence on apartheid South Africa for trade, and a largely subsistence economy. Over the next thirty years, though, its economy grew the fastest of any nation in the world. The transparent and judicious use of diamond returns is only a partial explanation, as the government also pursued economic diversification, mass education, and rural development in response to public needs. As nation-building has become a project undertaken by nations and multilateral agencies such as the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Botswana may provide best practices that others should follow in attempting to reconstruct economically and politically unstable states.

Keywords: Botswana, democratization, economic development, nation-building

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963 The Importance of the Phases of Information, Diagnosis, Planning, Intervention and Management in a Historic Center

Authors: Giovanni Duran Polo

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Demonstrate the importance of the stages such as Information, Diagnosis, Management, and Intervention is fundamental to have a historical, live, and quality inhabited center. One of the major actions to take is to promote the concept of the management of a historic center with harmonious development. For that, concerned actors should strengthen the concept that said historic center may be the neighborhood of all and for all. The centers of historical cities, presented as any other urban area, social, environmental issues etc; yet they get added value that have no other city neighborhoods. The equity component, either by the urban plan, or environmental quality offered properties of architectural, landscape or some land uses are the differentiating element, while the tool that makes them attractive face pressure exerted by new housing developments or shopping centers. That's why through the experience of working in historical centers, they are declared the actions in heritage areas. This paper will show how the encounter with each of these places are trying to take the phases of information, to gather all the data needed to be closer to the territory with specific data, diagnosis; which allowed the actors to see what state they were, felt how the heart is related to the rest of the city, show what problems affected the situation and what potential it had to compete in a global market. Also, to discuss the importance of the organization, as it is legal and normative basis for it have an order and a concept, when you know what can and what cannot, in an area where the citizen has many myth or history, when he wanted to intervene in protected buildings. It is also appropriate to show how it could develop the intervention phase, where the shares on the tangible elements and intervention for the protection of the heritage property are executed. The management is the final phase which will carry out all that was raised on paper, it's time to orient, explain, persuade, promote, and encourage citizens to take care of the heritage. It is profitable and also an obligation and it is not an insurmountable burden. It has to be said this is the time to pull all the cards to make the historical center and heritage becoming more alive today. It is the moment to make it more inhabited and to transformer it into a quality place, so citizens will cherish and understand the importance of such a place. Inhabited historical centers, endowments and equipment required, with trade quality, with constant cultural offer, with well-preserved buildings and tidy, modern and safe public spaces are always attractive for tourism, but first of all, the place should be conceived for citizens, otherwise everything will be doomed to failure.

Keywords: development, diagnosis, heritage historic center, intervention, management, patrimony

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962 Investigation of User Position Accuracy for Stand-Alone and Hybrid Modes of the Indian Navigation with Indian Constellation Satellite System

Authors: Naveen Kumar Perumalla, Devadas Kuna, Mohammed Akhter Ali

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Satellite Navigation System such as the United States Global Positioning System (GPS) plays a significant role in determining the user position. Similar to that of GPS, Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) is a Satellite Navigation System indigenously developed by Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), India, to meet the country’s navigation applications. This system is also known as Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC). The NavIC system’s main objective, is to offer Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) services to users in its two service areas i.e., covering the Indian landmass and the Indian Ocean. Six NavIC satellites are already deployed in the space and their receivers are in the performance evaluation stage. Four NavIC dual frequency receivers are installed in the ‘Advanced GNSS Research Laboratory’ (AGRL) in the Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, University College of Engineering, Osmania University, India. The NavIC receivers can be operated in two positioning modes: Stand-alone IRNSS and Hybrid (IRNSS+GPS) modes. In this paper, analysis of various parameters such as Dilution of Precision (DoP), three Dimension (3D) Root Mean Square (RMS) Position Error and Horizontal Position Error with respect to Visibility of Satellites is being carried out using the real-time IRNSS data, obtained by operating the receiver in both positioning modes. Two typical days (6th July 2017 and 7th July 2017) are considered for Hyderabad (Latitude-17°24'28.07’N, Longitude-78°31'4.26’E) station are analyzed. It is found that with respect to the considered parameters, the Hybrid mode operation of NavIC receiver is giving better results than that of the standalone positioning mode. This work finds application in development of NavIC receivers for civilian navigation applications.

Keywords: DoP, GPS, IRNSS, GNSS, position error, satellite visibility

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961 Decomposition of Solidification Carbides during Cyclic Thermal Treatments in a Co-Based Alloy Deposit Applied to Stainless Steel

Authors: Sellidj Abdelaziz, Lebaili Soltane

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A cobalt-based alloy type Co-Cr-Ni-WC was deposited by plasma transferred arc projection (PTA) on a stainless steel valve. The alloy is characterized at the equilibrium by a solid solution Co (γ) mainly dendritic, and eutectic carbides M₇C₃ and ηM₆C. At the deposit/substrate interface, this microstructure is modified by the fast cooling mode of the alloy when applied in the liquid state on the relatively cold steel substrate. The structure formed in this case is heterogeneous and metastable phases can occur and evolve over temperature service. Coating properties and reliability are directly related to microstructures formed during deposition. We were interested more particularly in this microstructure formed during the solidification of the deposit in the region of the interface joining the soldered couple and its evolution during cyclic heat treatments at temperatures similar to those of the thermal environment of the valve. The characterization was carried out by SEM-EDS microprobe CAMECA, XRD, and micro hardness profiles. The deposit obtained has a linear and regular appearance that is free of cracks and with little porosity. The morphology of the microstructure represents solidification stages that are relatively fast with a temperature gradient high at the beginning of the interface by forming a plane front solid solution Co (γ). It gradually changes with the decreasing temperature gradient by getting farther from the junction towards the outer limit of the deposit. The matrix takes the forms: cellular, mixed (cells and dendrites) and dendritic. Dendritic growth is done according to primary ramifications in the direction of the heat removal which takes place in the direction perpendicular to the interface, towards the external surface of the deposit, following secondary and tertiary undeveloped arms. The eutectic carbides M₇C₃ and ηM₆C formed are very thin and are located in the intercellular and interdendritic spaces of the solid solution Co (γ).

Keywords: Co-Ni-Cr-W-C alloy, solid deposit, microstructure, carbides, cyclic heat treatment

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960 A Cross-Sectional Study of Parents’ Knowledge, Attitude, and Health-Seeking Behaviour Towards Childhood Tuberculosis during COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned from Indonesia

Authors: Windy Rakhmawati, Suryani Suryani, Sri Hendrawati, Nenden Nur Asriyani Maryam

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Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Fear of COVID-19 has made people reluctant to visit health facilities, leading to disruptions to childhood TB control programs, which may increase household transmission and delay diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed to describe parents' knowledge, attitudes, and health-seeking behaviour towards childhood TB during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-sectional study was performed on 392 parents with TB children in three provinces with the highest proportion of TB cases in Indonesia. This study was conducted from February to December 2022. The inclusion criteria of respondents were parents with a child aged 0-14 years old with TB diagnosis who live with their parents. Data were collected using the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) survey guidelines from the World Health Organization and analyzed descriptively, as well as Spearman’s correlation. Overall, 392 parents of children with TB had poor knowledge (51.8%) including about causes, risk factors, transmission, symptoms, treatment, and prevention, which about 52.3%, 55.1%, 61.2%, 69.6%, 100%, 59.2%, respectively. Parents' health service-seeking behaviour towards Child TB was not normally distributed (P < 0.05) with knowledge test results (.000) and Seeking Health Services (.000). Health-seeking behaviour of parents in pediatric TB care was self-medication or self-treatment (86.2%), Traditional health seeking behaviour (4.8%), and modern health seeking behaviour (8.9%). The correlation between knowledge and seeking health services (Sig= .609) means there is no correlation between knowledge about TB and parents' health-seeking behaviour. Furthermore, 60.2% of the respondents would be shocked if their child had TB. More than half of the families in this study have poor knowledge and did self-medication or self-treatment regarding health-seeking behaviour for TB disease. Therefore, health workers, especially nurses, must provide TB-related education and health promotion and emphasize the importance of early detection. Health workers can also optimize their role in caring for and providing care to patients by increasing their trust in health workers, which will impact health-seeking behaviour in the future.

Keywords: attitude, child, health seeking behaviour, knowledge, tuberculosis

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959 Factors Contributing to Adverse Maternal and Fetal Outcome in Patients with Eclampsia

Authors: T. Pradhan, P. Rijal, M. C. Regmi

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Background: Eclampsia is a multisystem disorder that involves vital organs and failure of these may lead to deterioration of maternal condition and hypoxia and acidosis of fetus resulting in high maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Thus, evaluation of the contributing factors for this condition and its complications leading to maternal deaths should be the priority. Formulating the plan and protocol to decrease these losses should be our goal. Aims and Objectives: To evaluate the risk factors associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcome in patients with eclampsia and to correlate the risk factors associated with maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Methods: All patients with eclampsia admitted in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences were enrolled after informed consent from February 2013 to February 2014. Questions as per per-forma were asked to patients, and attendants like Antenatal clinic visits, parity, number of episodes of seizures, duration from onset of seizure to magnesium sulfate and the patients were followed as per the hospital protocol, the mode of delivery, outcome of baby, post partum maternal condition like maternal Intensive Care Unit admission, neurological impairment and mortality were noted before discharge. Statistical analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 11). Mean and percentage were calculated for demographic variables. Pearson’s correlation test and chi-square test were applied to find the relation between the risk factors and the outcomes. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were 10,000 antenatal deliveries during the study period. Fifty-two patients with eclampsia were admitted. All of the patients were unbooked for our institute. Thirty-nine patients were antepartum eclampsia. Thirty-one patients required mechanical ventilator support. Twenty-four patients were delivered by emergency c-section and 21 babies were Low Birth Weight and there were 9 stillbirths. There was one maternal mortality and 45 patients were discharged with improvement but 3 patients had neurological impairment. Mortality was significantly related with number of seizure episodes and time interval between seizure onset and administration of magnesium sulphate. Conclusion: Early detection and management of hypertensive complicating pregnancy during antenatal clinic check up. Early hospitalization and management with magnesium sulphate for eclampsia can help to minimize the maternal and fetal adverse outcomes.

Keywords: eclampsia, maternal mortality, perinatal mortality, risk factors

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958 Behavior of GRS Abutment Facing under Variable Cycles of Lateral Excitation through Physical Model Tests

Authors: Ashutosh Verma, Satyendra Mittal

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Numerous geosynthetic reinforced soil (GRS) abutment failures over the years have been attributed to the loss of strength at the facing-reinforcement interface due to seasonal thermal expansion/contraction of the bridge deck. This causes excessive settlement below the bridge seat, causing bridge bumps along the approach road which reduces the design life of any abutment. Before designers while choosing the type of facing, a broad range of facing configurations are undoubtedly available. Generally speaking, these configurations can be divided into three groups: modular (panels/block), continuous, and full height rigid (FHR). The purpose of the current study is to use 1g physical model tests under serviceable cyclic lateral displacements to experimentally investigate the behaviour of these three facing classifications. To simulate field behaviour, a field instrumented GRS abutment prototype was modeled into a N scaled down 1g physical model (N = 5) with adjustable facing arrangements to represent these three facing classifications. For cyclic lateral displacement (d/H) of top facing at loading rate of 1mm/min, the peak earth pressure coefficient (K) on the facing and vertical settlement of the footing (s/B) at 25, 50, 75 and 100 cycles have been measured. For a constant footing offset of x/H = 0.1, three forms of cyclic displacements have been performed to simulate active condition (CA), passive condition (CP), and active-passive condition (CAP). The findings showed that when reinforcements are integrated into the wall along with presence of gravel gabions i.e. FHR design, a rather substantial earth pressure occurs over the facing. Despite this, the FHR facing's continuous nature works in conjunction with the reinforcements' membrane resilience to reduce footing settlement. On the other hand, the pressure over the wall is released upon lateral excitation by the relative displacement between the panels in modular facing reducing the connection strength at the interface and leading to greater settlements below footing. On the contrary, continuous facing do not exhibit relative displacement along the depth of facing rather fails through rotation about the base, which extends the zone of active failure in the backfill leading to large depressions in the backfill region around the bridge seat. Conservatively, FHR facing shows relatively stable responses under lateral cyclic excitations as compared to modular or continuous type of abutment facing.

Keywords: GRS abutments, 1g physical model, full height rigid, cyclic lateral displacement

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957 Assessment of Mediation of Community-Based Disputes in Selected Barangays of Batangas City

Authors: Daisyree S. Arrieta

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The purpose of this study was to assess the mediation process applied on community-based disputes in the selected barangays of Batangas City, namely: Barangay Sta. Rita Karsada, Barangay Bolbok, and Barangay Alangilan. The researcher initially speculated that the required procedures under Republic Act No. 7160 were not religiously followed and satisfied by the Lupong Tagapamayapa members in most of the barangays in the subject locality and this prompted the researcher to conduct an investigation about this research topic. In this study, the subject barangays and their Lupon members still resorted to mediation processes to amicably settle conflicts among community members. It can also be appreciated among the Lupon Tagapamayapa members that they are aware of the purpose and processes required in the mediation of cases brought before them. However, the manner in which they conduct this mediation processes seems to be dependent on the general characteristics of their respective barangays and of the people situated therein. It also very noticeable that the strategies applied by the Lupon members on these cases depend on the ways and means the parties in dispute may arrive into agreements and conciliations. It is concluded by the researcher that the Lupong Tagapamayapa members in Barangay Sta. Rita Karsada, Barangay Bolbok, and Barangay Alangilan are aware and are applying the objectives and procedures of mediation. Also, the success and failure of the mediation processes applied by the Lupong Tagapamayapa members of the subject barangays on community-based disputes brought before them are generally attributed on the attitude and perspective of the parties in dispute towards the entire process of mediation and not on the capacity or capability of the Lupon members to subject them into amicable settlements. In view of the above, the researcher humbly recommends the following: (1) that the composition of the Lupong Tagapamayapa should include individuals from various sectors of the barangay; (2) that the Lupong Tagapamayapa members should undergo various trainings that may enhance their capability to mediate any type of community-based disputes at the expense of the barangay fund or budget; (3) that the Punong Barangay and the Sangguniang Pambarangay, in their own discretion, should allocate budget that will consistently provide regular honoraria for the Lupong Tagapamayapa members; (4) that the Punong Barangay and the Sangguniang Pambarangay should provide an ideal venue for the hearing of community-based disputes; (5) that the City/ Municipal Governments should allocate necessary financial assistance to the barangays under their jurisdiction in honing eligible Lupong Tagapamayapa members; and (6) that the Punong Barangay and other officials should initiate series of information campaigns for their constituents to be informed on the objectives, advantages, and procedures of mediation.

Keywords: amicable settlement, community-based disputes, dispute resolution, mediation

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956 Mindful Self-Compassion Training to Alleviate Work Stress and Fatigue in Community Workers: A Mixed Method Evaluation

Authors: Catherine Begin, Jeanne Berthod, Manon Truchon

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In Quebec, there are more than 8,000 community organizations throughout the province, representing more than 72,000 jobs. Working in a community setting involves several particularities (e.g., contact with the suffering of users, feelings of powerlessness, institutional pressure, unstable funding, etc.), which can put workers at risk of fatigue, burnout, and psychological distress. A 2007 study shows that 52% of community workers surveyed have a high psychological distress index. The Ricochet project, founded in 2019, is an initiative aimed at providing various care and services to community workers in the Quebec City region, with a global health approach. Within this program, mindful self-compassion training (MSC) is offered at a low cost. MSC is one of the effective strategies proposed in the literature to help prevent and reduce burnout. Self-compassion is the recognition that suffering, failure, and inadequacies are inherent in the human experience and that everyone, including oneself, deserves compassion. MSC training targets several behavioral, cognitive, and emotional learnings (e.g., motivating oneself with caring, better managing difficult emotions, promoting resilience, etc.). A mixed-method evaluation was conducted with the participants in order to explore the effects of the training on community workers in the Quebec City region. The participants were community workers (management or caregiver). 15 participants completed satisfaction and perceived impact surveys, and 30 participated in structured interviews. Quantitative results showed that participants were generally completely satisfied or satisfied with the training (94%) and perceived that the training allowed them to develop new strategies for dealing with stress (87%). Participants perceived effects on their mood (93%), their contact with others (80%), and their stress level (67%). Some of the barriers raised were scheduling constraints, length of training, and guilt about taking time for oneself. The qualitative results show that individuals experienced long-term benefits, as they were able to apply the tools they received during the training in their daily lives. Some barriers were noted, such as difficulty in getting away from work or problems with the employer, which prevented enrollment. Overall, the results of this evaluation support the use of MSC (mindful self-compassion) training among community workers. Future research could support this evaluation by using a rigorous design and developing innovative ways to overcome the barriers raised.

Keywords: mindful self-compassion, community workers, work stres, burnout, wellbeing at work

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955 Relativity in Toddlers' Understanding of the Physical World as Key to Misconceptions in the Science Classroom

Authors: Michael Hast

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Within their first year, infants can differentiate between objects based on their weight. By at least 5 years children hold consistent weight-related misconceptions about the physical world, such as that heavy things fall faster than lighter ones because of their weight. Such misconceptions are seen as a challenge for science education since they are often highly resistant to change through instruction. Understanding the time point of emergence of such ideas could, therefore, be crucial for early science pedagogy. The paper thus discusses two studies that jointly address the issue by examining young children’s search behaviour in hidden displacement tasks under consideration of relative object weight. In both studies, they were tested with a heavy or a light ball, and they either had information about one of the balls only or both. In Study 1, 88 toddlers aged 2 to 3½ years watched a ball being dropped into a curved tube and were then allowed to search for the ball in three locations – one straight beneath the tube entrance, one where the curved tube lead to, and one that corresponded to neither of the previous outcomes. Success and failure at the task were not impacted by weight of the balls alone in any particular way. However, from around 3 years onwards, relative lightness, gained through having tactile experience of both balls beforehand, enhanced search success. Conversely, relative heaviness increased search errors such that children increasingly searched in the location immediately beneath the tube entry – known as the gravity bias. In Study 2, 60 toddlers aged 2, 2½ and 3 years watched a ball roll down a ramp and behind a screen with four doors, with a barrier placed along the ramp after one of four doors. Toddlers were allowed to open the doors to find the ball. While search accuracy generally increased with age, relative weight did not play a role in 2-year-olds’ search behaviour. Relative lightness improved 2½-year-olds’ searches. At 3 years, both relative lightness and relative heaviness had a significant impact, with the former improving search accuracy and the latter reducing it. Taken together, both studies suggest that between 2 and 3 years of age, relative object weight is increasingly taken into consideration in navigating naïve physical concepts. In particular, it appears to contribute to the early emergence of misconceptions relating to object weight. This insight from developmental psychology research may have consequences for early science education and related pedagogy towards early conceptual change.

Keywords: conceptual development, early science education, intuitive physics, misconceptions, object weight

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954 A Temporal QoS Ontology For ERTMS/ETCS

Authors: Marc Sango, Olimpia Hoinaru, Christophe Gransart, Laurence Duchien

Abstract:

Ontologies offer a means for representing and sharing information in many domains, particularly in complex domains. For example, it can be used for representing and sharing information of System Requirement Specification (SRS) of complex systems like the SRS of ERTMS/ETCS written in natural language. Since this system is a real-time and critical system, generic ontologies, such as OWL and generic ERTMS ontologies provide minimal support for modeling temporal information omnipresent in these SRS documents. To support the modeling of temporal information, one of the challenges is to enable representation of dynamic features evolving in time within a generic ontology with a minimal redesign of it. The separation of temporal information from other information can help to predict system runtime operation and to properly design and implement them. In addition, it is helpful to provide a reasoning and querying techniques to reason and query temporal information represented in the ontology in order to detect potential temporal inconsistencies. Indeed, a user operation, such as adding a new constraint on existing planning constraints can cause temporal inconsistencies, which can lead to system failures. To address this challenge, we propose a lightweight 3-layer temporal Quality of Service (QoS) ontology for representing, reasoning and querying over temporal and non-temporal information in a complex domain ontology. Representing QoS entities in separated layers can clarify the distinction between the non QoS entities and the QoS entities in an ontology. The upper generic layer of the proposed ontology provides an intuitive knowledge of domain components, specially ERTMS/ETCS components. The separation of the intermediate QoS layer from the lower QoS layer allows us to focus on specific QoS Characteristics, such as temporal or integrity characteristics. In this paper, we focus on temporal information that can be used to predict system runtime operation. To evaluate our approach, an example of the proposed domain ontology for handover operation, as well as a reasoning rule over temporal relations in this domain-specific ontology, are given.

Keywords: system requirement specification, ERTMS/ETCS, temporal ontologies, domain ontologies

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953 Exchanging Radiology Reporting System with Electronic Health Record: Designing a Conceptual Model

Authors: Azadeh Bashiri

Abstract:

Introduction: In order to better designing of electronic health record system in Iran, integration of health information systems based on a common language must be done to interpret and exchange this information with this system is required. Background: This study, provides a conceptual model of radiology reporting system using unified modeling language. The proposed model can solve the problem of integration this information system with electronic health record system. By using this model and design its service based, easily connect to electronic health record in Iran and facilitate transfer radiology report data. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2013. The student community was 22 experts that working at the Imaging Center in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran and the sample was accorded with the community. Research tool was a questionnaire that prepared by the researcher to determine the information requirements. Content validity and test-retest method was used to measure validity and reliability of questioner respectively. Data analyzed with average index, using SPSS. Also, Visual Paradigm software was used to design a conceptual model. Result: Based on the requirements assessment of experts and related texts, administrative, demographic and clinical data and radiological examination results and if the anesthesia procedure performed, anesthesia data suggested as minimum data set for radiology report and based it class diagram designed. Also by identifying radiology reporting system process, use case was drawn. Conclusion: According to the application of radiology reports in electronic health record system for diagnosing and managing of clinical problem of the patient, provide the conceptual Model for radiology reporting system; in order to systematically design it, the problem of data sharing between these systems and electronic health records system would eliminate.

Keywords: structured radiology report, information needs, minimum data set, electronic health record system in Iran

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952 Design of an Active Compression System for Treating Vascular Disease Using a Series of Silicone Based Inflatable Mini Bladders

Authors: Gayani K. Nandasiri, Tilak Dias, William Hurley

Abstract:

Venous disease of human lower limb could range from minor asymptomatic incompetence of venous valves to chronic venous ulceration. The sheer prevalence of varicose veins and its associated significant costs of treating late complications such as chronic ulcers contribute to a higher burden on health care resources. In most of western countries with developed health care systems, treatment costs associated with Venous disease accounts for a considerable portion of their total health care budget, and it has become a high-cost burden to National Health Service (NHS), UK. The established gold standard of treatment for the venous disease is the graduated compression, where the pressure at the ankle being highest and decreasing towards the knee and thigh. Currently, medical practitioners use two main methods to treat venous disease; i.e. compression bandaging and compression stockings. Both these systems have their own disadvantages which lead to the current programme of research. The aim of the present study is to revolutionize the compression therapy by using a novel active compression system to deliver a controllable and more accurate pressure profiles using a series of inflatable mini bladders. Two types of commercially available silicones were tested for the application. The mini bladders were designed with a special fabrication procedure to provide required pressure profiles, and a series of experiments were conducted to characterise the mini bladders. The inflation/deflation heights of these mini bladders were investigated experimentally and using a finite element model (FEM), and the experimental data were compared to the results obtained from FEM simulations, which showed 70-80% agreement. Finally, the mini bladders were tested for its pressure transmittance characteristics, and the results showed a 70-80% of inlet air pressure transmitted onto the treated surface.

Keywords: finite element analysis, graduated compression, inflatable bladders, venous disease

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951 An Echo of Eco: Investigating the Effectiveness of Eco-Friendly Advertising Media of Fashion Brand Communication

Authors: Vaishali Joshi

Abstract:

In the past, companies and buyers operated as if there was infinite availability of natural resources for usage, which has resulted in the loss of our globe's natural ecosystem. People's consciousness of ecological concerns had increased, which showed the way for the evolution of the green revolution with the objective of discontinuing the use of products that are harmful to the ecosystem of the earth. This green revolution has made the consumers head toward those companies which are providing eco-friendly products s/service s through less eco-harmful ways. Studies show that companies started gaining a reputation in the market through their eco-friendly activities in their business. Hence companies should be alert to understand the consumer's environmentally friendly consumption behavior to survive and be in the game of the competition. Green marketing efforts guarantee beneficial exchanges without harmful consequences for current and /or upcoming generations. This hits the green policies of those companies which are claiming environmental concern. This means that these companies not only focus on the impact of their production and products on the ecosystem but also on every small activity in their value chain. One of the most ignored parts of the value chain is the medium through which the marketing of products/services is done. These companies should also take into account to what degree their selection of advertising media affects the ecosystem of the earth. In this study, a hypothetical fashion apparel brand known as "Dolphin" will be studied. In particular, the following objectives are framed: i) to study the brand attitude of the given fashion brand due to its selection of eco-friendly advertising medium ii) to study the advertisement attitude of the given fashion brand due to its selection of eco-friendly advertising medium and iii) to study the purchase intention of the given fashion brand due to its selection of eco-friendly advertising medium. An online experiment will be conducted. Respondents between the ages of 20-and 64 years will be selected randomly from the online consumer panel database. The findings of this study will have a great impact on the companies that are claiming environmental concerns by understanding how the advertising media is affecting the company’s brand image in the long run.

Keywords: eco-friendly advertising media, fashion, attitude, purchase intention

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950 Embedding the Dimensions of Sustainability into City Information Modelling

Authors: Ali M. Al-Shaery

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to address the functions of sustainability dimensions in city information modelling and to present the required sustainability criteria that support establishing a sustainable planning framework for enhancing existing cities and developing future smart cities. The paper is divided into two sections. The first section is based on the examination of a wide and extensive array of cross-disciplinary literature in the last decade and a half to conceptualize the terms ‘sustainable’ and ‘smart city,' and map their associated criteria to city information modelling. The second section is based on analyzing two approaches relating to city information modelling, namely statistical and dynamic approaches, and their suitability in the development of cities’ action plans. The paper argues that the use of statistical approaches to embedding sustainability dimensions in city information modelling have limited value. Despite the popularity of such approaches in addressing other dimensions like utility and service management in development and action plans of the world cities, these approaches are unable to address the dynamics across various city sectors with regards to economic, environmental and social criteria. The paper suggests an integrative dynamic and cross-disciplinary planning approach to embedding sustainability dimensions in city information modelling frameworks. Such an approach will pave the way towards optimal planning and implementation of priority actions of projects and investments. The approach can be used to achieve three main goals: (1) better development and action plans for world cities (2) serve the development of an integrative dynamic and cross-disciplinary framework that incorporates economic, environmental and social sustainability criteria and (3) address areas that require further attention in the development of future sustainable and smart cities. The paper presents an innovative approach for city information modelling and a well-argued, balanced hierarchy of sustainability criteria that can contribute to an area of research which is still in its infancy in terms of development and management.

Keywords: information modelling, smart city, sustainable city, sustainability dimensions, sustainability criteria, city development planning

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949 Increasing Sexual Safety Awareness and Capacity for Mental Health Professionals

Authors: Tara Hunter, Kristine Concepcion, Wendy Cheng, Brianna Pike, Jane Estoesta, Anne Stuart

Abstract:

In 2015, Family Planning NSW was contracted by the NSW Ministry of Health to design and deliver Sexual Safety Policy training (SSPT) to mental health professionals across NSW. The training was based on their current guidelines and developed in consultation with an expert reference group. From October 2015 to April 2017 it was delivered to over 2,400 mental health professionals with a view to supporting implementation of consistent prevention and intervention related to sexual safety in the mental health setting. An evaluation was undertaken to determine the knowledge and confidence of participants related to sexual safety before and after the training, and whether any improvements were translated into changes in practice. Participants were invited to complete a survey prior to the training, upon completion and three to six months thereafter. Telephone interviews were conducted among service managers and mental health champions six months post-training. Prior to training, the majority of mental health professionals reported being slightly to moderately confident in identifying a sexual safety incident. When asked on their understanding of sexual safety, gender sensitive practice and trauma informed care, they reported no confidence, slight confidence and moderate confidence. Immediately after the training, 54.5% reported being very confident and 10.9% extremely confident in identifying a sexual safety incident. More than half felt very confident or extremely confident in their understanding of sexual safety principles. The impact survey (six months later) found that the majority of participants (91%) were highly confident in identifying a sexual safety incident. Telephone interviewees reported a change in workplace culture and increased awareness after the training. Mental health professionals experienced increased knowledge and confidence about sexual safety principles following the training and were able to implement positive changes and concrete actions to better address sexual safety issues in their workplace.

Keywords: sexual safety, mental health professionals, trauma informed care, policy training

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948 The Effects of Inferior Tilt Fixation on a Glenoid Components in Reverse Shoulder-Arthroplasty

Authors: Soo Min Kim, Soo-Won Chae, Soung-Yon Kim, Haea Lee, Ju Yong Kang, Juneyong Lee, Seung-Ho Han

Abstract:

Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) has become an effective treatment option for cuff tear arthropathy and massive, irreparable rotator cuff tears and indications for its use are expanding. Numerous methods for optimal fixation of the glenoid component have been suggested, such as inferior overhang, inferior tilt, to maximize initial fixation and prevent glenoid component loosening. The inferior tilt fixation of a glenoid component has been suggested, which is expected to decrease scapular notching and to improve the stability of a glenoid component fixation in reverse total shoulder arthroplasty. Inferior tilt fixation of the glenoid component has been suggested, which can improve stability and, because it provides the most uniform compressive forces and imparts the least amount of tensile forces and micromotion, reduce the likelihood of mechanical failure. Another study reported that glenoid component inferior tilt improved impingement-free range of motion as well as minimized the scapular notching. Several authors have shown that inferior tilt of a glenoid component reduces scapular notching. However, controversy still exists regarding its importance in the literature. In this study the influence of inferior tilt fixation on the primary stability of a glenoid component has been investigated. Finite element models were constructed from cadaveric scapulae and glenoid components were implanted with neutral and 10° inferior tilts. Most previous biomechanical studies regarding the effect of glenoid component inferior tilt used a solid rigid polyurethane foam or sawbones block, not cadaveric scapulae, to evaluate the stability of the RTSA. Relative micromotions at the bone-glenoid component interface, and the distribution of bone stresses under the glenoid component and around the screws were analyzed and compared between neutral and 10° inferior tilt groups. Contact area between bone and screws and cut surface area of the cancellous bone exposed after reaming of the glenoid have also been investigated because of the fact that cancellous and cortical bone thickness vary depending on the resection level of the inferior glenoid bone. The greater relative micromotion of the bone-glenoid component interface occurred in the 10° inferior tilt group than in the neutral tilt group, especially at the inferior area of the bone-glenoid component interface. Bone stresses under the glenoid component and around the screws were also higher in the 10° inferior tilt group than in the neutral tilt group, especially at the inferior third of the glenoid bone surface under the glenoid component and inferior scapula. Thus inferior tilt fixation of the glenoid component may adversely affect the primary stability and longevity of the reverse total shoulder arthroplasty.

Keywords: finite element analysis, glenoid component, inferior tilt, reverse total shoulder arthroplasty

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947 Preventing Factors for Innovation: The Case of Swedish Construction Small and Medium-Sized Local Companies towards a One-Stop-Shop Business Concept

Authors: Georgios Pardalis, Krushna Mahapatra, Brijesh Mainali

Abstract:

Compared to other sectors, the residential and service sector in Sweden is responsible for almost 40% of the national final energy use and faces great challenges towards achieving reduction of energy intensity. The one- and two-family (henceforth 'detached') houses, constituting 60% of the residential floor area and using 32 TWh for space heating and hot water purposes, offers significant opportunities for improved energy efficiency. More than 80% of those houses are more than 35 years of old and a large share of them need major renovations. However, the rate of energy renovations for such houses is significantly low. The renovation market is dominated by small and medium-sized local companies (SMEs), who mostly offer individual solutions. A one-stop-shop business framework, where a single actor collaborates with other actors and coordinates them to offer a full package for holistic renovations, may speed up the rate of renovation. Such models are emerging in some European countries. This paper aims to understand the willingness of the SMEs to adopt a one-stop-shop business framework. Interviews were conducted with 13 SMEs in Kronoberg county in Sweden, a geographic region known for its initiatives towards sustainability and energy efficiency. The examined firms seem reluctant to adopt one-stop-shop for nonce due to the perceived risks they see in such a business move and due to their characteristics, although they agree that such a move will advance their position in the market and their business volume. By using threat-rigidity and prospect theory, we illustrate how this type of companies can move from being reluctant to adopt one-stop-shop framework to its adoption. Additionally, with the use of behavioral theory, we gain deeper knowledge on those exact reasons preventing those firms from adopting the one-stop-shop framework.

Keywords: construction SMEs, innovation adoption, one-stop-shop, perceived risks

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946 Reviewing Special Education Preservice Teachers' Reflective Practices over Two Field Experiences: Topics and Changes in Reflection

Authors: Laurie U. deBettencourt

Abstract:

During pre-service field experiences teacher candidates are often asked to reflect as part of their training and in this investigation candidates’ reflective journal entries were reviewed, coded and analyzed with results suggesting teacher candidates need more direct instruction on how to describe, analyze, and make judgements on their instructional practices so that their practices improve over time. Teacher education programs often incorporate reflective-based activities during field experiences. The purpose of this investigation was to determine if special education teacher candidate’s reflective practices changed as they completed their two supervised field experiences and to determine what topics the candidates focused on in their reflections. The six females graduate students were completing two field experiences in special education classrooms within one academic year as part of their coursework leading to a master’s degree and special education teacher state certification. Each candidate wrote 15 reflection journal entries (approximately 200 words each) per field experience. Each of the journal entries were reviewed sentence by sentence to determine a reflective practice score and to determine the topics discussed. The reflective practice score was calculated using four dimensions of reflection (describe, analyze, judge, and apply) in order to create a continuous variable representing their reflective practice across four points of time. A One-way Repeated Measures Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) suggested that special education teacher candidates did not change their reflective practices over time (i.e., at time-point one the practitioner’s mean score was 56.0 out of 100 (SD = 7.6), 53.8 (SD = 4.3) at time-point two, 51.2 (SD = 4.5) at time-point three, and 57.7 (SD = 8.2) at time-point four). Qualitative findings suggest candidates focused mostly on themselves in their reflections. Conclusions suggest the need for teacher preparation programs to provide more direct instruction on how a teacher should reflect. Specific implications are provided for teacher training and future research.

Keywords: field experiences, reflective practices, special educators, teacher preparation

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945 Urban Corridor Management Strategy Based on Intelligent Transportation System

Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

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Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the application of technology for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. The goal of urban corridor management using ITS in road transport is to achieve improvements in mobility, safety, and the productivity of the transportation system within the available facilities through the integrated application of advanced monitoring, communications, computer, display, and control process technologies, both in the vehicle and on the road. This paper attempts to present the past studies regarding several ITS available that have been successfully deployed in urban corridors of India and abroad, and to know about the current scenario and the methodology considered for planning, design, and operation of Traffic Management Systems. This paper also presents the endeavor that was made to interpret and figure out the performance of the 27.4 Km long study corridor having eight intersections and four flyovers. The corridor consisting of 6 lanes as well as 8 lanes divided road network. Two categories of data were collected on February 2016 such as traffic data (traffic volume, spot speed, delay) and road characteristics data (no. of lanes, lane width, bus stops, mid-block sections, intersections, flyovers). The instruments used for collecting the data were video camera, radar gun, mobile GPS and stopwatch. From analysis, the performance interpretations incorporated were identification of peak hours and off peak hours, congestion and level of service (LOS) at mid blocks, delay followed by the plotting speed contours and recommending urban corridor management strategies. From the analysis, it is found that ITS based urban corridor management strategies will be useful to reduce congestion, fuel consumption and pollution so as to provide comfort and efficiency to the users. The paper presented urban corridor management strategies based on sensors incorporated in both vehicles and on the roads.

Keywords: congestion, ITS strategies, mobility, safety

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944 Predicting Returns Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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943 Flood Risk Management in Low Income Countries: Balancing Risk and Development

Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

Abstract:

The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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942 The TarMed Reform of 2014: A Causal Analysis of the Effects on the Behavior of Swiss Physicians

Authors: Camila Plaza, Stefan Felder

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In October 2014, the TARMED reform was implemented in Switzerland. In an effort to even out the financial standing of general practitioners (including pediatricians) relative to that of specialists in the outpatient sector, the reform tackled two aspects: on the one hand, GPs would be able to bill an additional 9 CHF per patient, once per consult per day. This is referred to as the surcharge position. As a second measure, it reduced the fees for certain technical services targeted to specialists (e.g., imaging, surgical technical procedures, etc.). Given the fee-for-service reimbursement system in Switzerland, we predict that physicians reacted to the economic incentives of the reform by increasing the consults per patient and decreasing the average amount of time per consult. Within this framework, our treatment group is formed by GPs and our control group by those specialists who were not affected by the reform. Using monthly insurance claims panel data aggregated at the physician praxis level (provided by SASIS AG), for the period of January 2013-December 2015, we run difference in difference panel data models with physician and time fixed effects in order to test for the causal effects of the reform. We account for seasonality, and control for physician characteristics such as age, gender, specialty, and physician experience. Furthermore, we run the models on subgroups of physicians within our sample so as to account for heterogeneity and treatment intensities. Preliminary results support our hypothesis. We find evidence of an increase in consults per patients and a decrease in time per consult. Robustness checks do not significantly alter the results for our outcome variable of consults per patient. However, we do find a smaller effect of the reform for time per consult. Thus, the results of this paper could provide policymakers a better understanding of physician behavior and their sensitivity to financial incentives of reforms (both past and future) under the current reimbursement system.

Keywords: difference in differences, financial incentives, health reform, physician behavior

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941 A Reading Attempt of the Urban Memory of Jordan University of Science and Technology Campus by Cognitive Mapping

Authors: Bsma Adel Bany Mohammad

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The University campuses are a small city containing basic city functions such as educational spaces, accommodations, services and transportation. They are spaces of functional and social life with different activities, different occupants. The campus designed and transformed like cities so both experienced and memorized in same way. Campus memory is the ability of individuals to maintain and reveal the spatial components of designed physical spaces, which form the understandings, experiences, sensations of the environment in all. ‘Cognitive mapping’ is used to decode the physical interaction and emotional relationship between individuals and the city; Cognitive maps are created graphically using geometric and verbal elements on paper by remembering the images of the Urban Environment. In this study, to determine the emotional urban identity belonging to Jordan University of science and technology Campus, architecture students Asked to identify the areas they interact with in the campus by drawing a cognitive map. ‘Campus memory items’ are identified by analyzing the cognitive maps of the campus, then the spatial identity result of such data. The analysis based on the five basic elements of Lynch: paths, districts, edges, nodes, and landmarks. As a result of this analysis, it found that Spatial Identity constructed by the shared elements of the maps. The memory of most students listed the gates structure- which is a large desirable structure, located at the main entrances within the campus defined as major landmarks, then the square spaces defined as nodes, in addition to both stairs and corridors defined as paths. Finally, the districts, edges of educational buildings and service spaces are listed correspondingly in cognitive maps. Findings suggest that the spatial identity of the campus design is related mainly to the gates structures, squares and stairs.

Keywords: cognitive maps, university campus, urban memory, identity

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